(NEW YORK) — The United States continues to warn that Russia could invade Ukraine “any day” amid escalating tensions in the region, with President Joe Biden telling reporters Thursday that the threat is now “very high.”

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday, making urgent remarks to the United Nations Security Council, challenged Moscow to commit to no invasion.

More than 150,000 Russian troops are estimated to be massed near Ukraine’s borders, U.S. officials have said. While Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin claim that some troops have begun to withdraw, Biden told reporters that more Russian forces have moved in, contrary to Moscow’s claims.

It remains unclear whether Putin has made a decision to attack his ex-Soviet neighbor.

Russia has denied any plans to invade and reiterated its demands that the U.S. and NATO bar Ukraine from joining the military alliance.

Here’s how the news is developing. All times Eastern:

Feb 21, 10:51 am
Putin says he’ll decide today whether to recognize Russian-controlled separatist regions

Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a national security council meeting that he will make a decision today whether to recognize the Russian-controlled separatist regions in Ukraine as independent.

This came after Putin called an unplanned meeting of his national security council and, in an unusual move, broadcast the meeting live on state TV. The security council unanimously advised Putin he should recognize the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk and Lugansk. That would open a path to Russia annexing them, as it did Crimea in 2014.

Feb 21, 10:42 am
Biden meeting with national security team

President Joe Biden is meeting Monday with his national security team, the White House confirmed.

Seen arriving at the White House shortly after 10 a.m. were: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley, Vice President Kamala Harris, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and CIA director William Burns.

Feb 21, 9:37 am
Russia claims to destroy 2 Ukrainian armored vehicles amid fears of pretext to attack

Russia has claimed to have destroyed two Ukrainian armored vehicles and killed five Ukrainians it claimed crossed into Russian territory, in unverified reports as Russia appears to be intensifying efforts to build a pretext to attack Ukraine.

Russia’s military and its FSB intelligence service claimed a Ukrainian “sabotage and reconnaissance group” was detected Monday morning near a village close to the border in the Rostov region that neighbors the two Russian-controlled separatist regions in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine has denied the Russian claim and it comes amid a barrage of false reports and staged videos from Russia and the separatists of supposed Ukrainian attacks. In the past three days, Russia has also made dubious claims of shells falling on Russian territory as Russia builds a pretext for a possible attack on Ukraine, under the guise of coming to the aid of the separatists.

Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytryo Kuleba publicly denied the Russian claims, on Twitter calling Russia a “fake-producing factory.”

-ABC News’ Patrick Reevell

Feb 21, 9:19 am
Leader of Russian-backed separatists calls on Putin to recognize separatist regions as independent: Russian media

The head of the Russian-controlled separatists in eastern Ukraine is calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize the separatist regions as independent of Ukraine, Russian media is reporting.

Denis Pushilin, the leader of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, is also asking Putin to consider making a treaty on mutual military defense.

Recognition would open a path to Russia potentially annexing the regions and possibly openly sending troops there.

The Russian parliament last week voted to appeal to Putin to recognize the two separatist self-proclaimed republics, though Putin initially signaled he wouldn’t do so immediately.

The two self-proclaimed separatist People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk were formed after Russia stoked conflict in the Russian-speaking region of Donbas in 2014, sending troops in covertly to help establish the regions.

In the last week Russia and the separatist regions have dramatically escalated tensions, accusing Ukraine of an imminent attack and building a pretext for Russian intervention.

-ABC News’ Patrick Reevell

Feb 21, 8:33 am
Likelihood of diplomatic solution ‘diminishing hour by hour’

National security adviser Jake Sullivan told ABC News’ “Good Morning America” Monday that President Joe Biden is prepared in principle to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin if there is no invasion, but that unfortunately, an invasion still seems likely.

“President Biden made clear all along he’s prepared either way. He’s prepared to engage in high level diplomacy to resolve this peacefully and he’s equally prepared to rally our allies and partners to impose costs and consequences on Russia should they choose to invade,” Sullivan said.

“He indicated to the French president yesterday in principle he would be prepared to meet with Putin if President Putin stood down from his invasion,” Sullivan said. “We can’t say anything other than indications on the ground look like Russia is still moving forward.”

Sullivan indicated the window for diplomacy will remain open until more significant military action is seen, but that the window gets smaller as time goes on.

“We never give up hope on diplomacy until the missiles fly or the tanks roll,” Sullivan said. “We’ve been working hard for months with our allies and partners to get Russia to sit down in a serious way at the table, even as recently as yesterday the president indicated his readiness to do that. Russia has not shown the same kind of willingness on their side. The likelihood there’s a diplomatic solution given the troop movements of the Russians is diminishing hour by hour.”

Asked if sanctions will be enough to stop Russia without sending U.S. forces to Ukraine, Sullivan said the U.S. is determined to impose sanctions in the long-term to strangle Russia’s ambitions without the use of ground forces.

-ABC News’ Sarah Kolinovsky

Feb 21, 5:27 am
Talk of Biden-Putin summit ‘premature,’ Kremlin says

The Kremlin has said it is still “premature” to talk about a summit between President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin, though it didn’t rule out that one could take place.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Sunday said Biden and Putin have agreed “in principle” to meet, provided Russia did not invade Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced the possibility of a meeting after speaking with both leaders on Sunday, amid intense diplomatic efforts to try to dissuade Putin from launching an invasion the U.S. fears could come this week.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that for now there’s only an agreement for Russia and the U.S. to speak at a lower level, between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister. That meeting is scheduled for this week.

Peskov seemed to suggest that an agreement on a meeting between Biden and Putin would depend on the outcome of those talks.

“I can say that an understanding has been reached that we need to continue the dialogue at the level of ministers,” Peskov told reporters on Monday. “But to talk about some kind of concrete plans about organizing any summits is for now premature.”

Contacts between Biden and Putin can be arranged quickly, if necessary, he said.

-ABC News’ Patrick Reevell

Feb 20, 10:28 pm
US alleges Russia making list of Ukrainians ‘to be killed or sent to camps’

The United States has obtained information of potential Russian operations against Ukrainian targets as part of a potential invasion, including targeted killings, kidnappings, detentions and torture, the U.S. alleged in a letter to the United Nations obtained by ABC News.

“We have credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation,” U.S. Ambassador Bathsheba Nell Crocker wrote to Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights.

That includes the “likely use” of lethal measures to “disperse peaceful protesters or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,” Crocker wrote.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken alluded to this during his remarks to the U.N. Security Council on Thursday, telling his fellow diplomats, “Conventional attacks are not all that Russia plans to inflict upon the people of Ukraine. We have information that indicates Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians.”

In addition, sources told ABC News last Tuesday that the U.S. believed Russia aimed to move into Kyiv to decapitate the Ukrainian government and install their own.

But this new letter goes further, saying Russia “would likely target those who opposes Russian actions, including Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.”

Ambassador Michele Sison, the top U.S. diplomat for international organizations, is headed to Geneva this week to meet Bachelet at the U.N. headquarters there, the State Department announced Sunday.

“The United States is gravely concerned that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering. In light of OHCHR’s important mandate and its reporting presence in Ukraine, we wish to share this information with you as an early warning that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine may create a human rights catastrophe,” Crocker added in the letter.

-ABC News’ Conor Finnegan

Feb 20, 8:46 pm
Biden, Putin agree to summit

U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to hold a summit proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron. The leaders both accepted the summit “in principle,” with one major condition: that Russia does not invade Ukraine.

“As the president has repeatedly made clear, we are committed to pursuing diplomacy until the moment an invasion begins,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement Sunday evening.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov are set to meet Thursday. During their meeting, they will prepare “the substance” of the summit, according to a statement from the French government. Macron “will work with all stakeholders to prepare the content of these discussions” as well.

Macron spoke with Putin twice Sunday, both before and after he called Biden for a brief 15-minute phone call.

“We are always ready for diplomacy,” Psaki said. “We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia instead choose war. And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon.”

-ABC News’ Justin Gomez

Feb 20, 7:49 pm
US State Department gives more info on Moscow safety alert

A State Department spokesperson said the alert published Sunday warning Americans to avoid crowds and stay alert in places frequented by tourists and Westerners was issued “out of an abundance of caution,” stopping short of tying it directly to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

“In recent days a number of Russian media outlets have reported on a spate of bomb threats being made against Russian public buildings, including metro stations, in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and elsewhere,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

“The U.S. Department of State has no greater responsibility than the safety and security of U.S. citizens overseas,” they said. “Out of an abundance of caution, and in line with our commitment to providing U.S. citizens with clear and timely information so they can make informed travel decisions, we published this alert.”

-ABC News’ Conor Finnegan

Copyright © 2022, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

(NEW YORK) — After weeks of mounting tensions, United States officials have warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could happen “any day now.”

Russia has spent weeks building up military forces near eastern Ukraine, with more than 150,000 troops encircling Ukraine in Belarus and on the Russian side of the border, according to U.S. officials.

The Kremlin has denied warnings of an imminent invasion and claimed in recent days that it is withdrawing some troops, while U.S. and NATO officials have said — and commercial satellite images have shown — there have been no signs of de-escalation.

As global leaders continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to avoid war between Russia and Ukraine, a senior Department of State official told ABC News warned Thursday that this is “perhaps the most perilous moment for peace and security since the end of the Cold War.”

As the conflict plays out on a global stage, Americans are somewhat mixed on how the U.S. should respond. In a new poll from Quinnipiac University, 57% of Americans said the U.S. should not send troops into Ukraine if Russia invades, and 54% support Biden’s decision to deploy troops to support NATO allies.

Earlier this week, President Joe Biden addressed the American public and again made clear the U.S. will not send troops to support Ukraine. But he promised to defend “every inch” of NATO territory, already deploying several thousand more troops to Europe, and to support the Ukrainian people and their government with lethal defensive weapons, economic aid, and crippling U.S. and allied sanctions on Russia.

That high level of U.S. involvement is necessary, he said, because “this is about more than just Russia and Ukraine.”

“It’s about standing for what we believe in, for the future that we want for our world, for liberty, the right of countless countries to choose their own destiny. And the right of people to determine their own futures, or the principle that a country can’t change its neighbor’s borders by force,” Biden said. “If we do not stand for freedom where it is at risk today, we’ll surely pay a steeper price tomorrow.”

NATO ties

To understand the United States’ vested interest in the conflict, you’d have to go back to the Cold War, Craig Albert, an associate professor of political science and the director of Intelligence and Security Studies at Augusta University, told ABC News.

To counter Soviet aggression in Europe, the U.S. helped form the security alliance NATO, or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in 1949. In the years since, NATO has expanded several times, including adding three former Soviet republics.

Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that is bordered by Russia on the east, is not a NATO member, though in 2008 the alliance opened the door to membership. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded this not happen, as he seeks to limit NATO along Russia’s border.

“Ukraine has attached itself to the West, to NATO,” Albert said. “They still have military agreements, treaties, economic treaties, business treaties or relationships, even though there’s no NATO treaty in place between Ukraine and NATO and the U.S.”

The NATO members bordering Russia also present a concern. The potential impact of the Ukraine conflict on U.S. interests is considered “significant,” by the Council on Foreign Relations, which said in part that the conflict “risks further deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations and greater escalation if Russia expands its presence in Ukraine or into NATO countries.”

As Russia tries to “reassert itself into the great power game,” the U.S. is seeking to maintain the balance of power in Europe and “protect Ukraine as a buffer against Russian-perceived aggression in Europe itself,” Albert said, noting that Ukraine is “strategically important” for Russia, the U.S. and NATO.

NATO is “critical to U.S. policy in Europe,” and supporting Ukraine for the past 30-plus years “has been integral to U.S. security policy for the European continent as a whole,” Matthew Pauly, an associate professor of history at Michigan State University who is an expert on Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe, told ABC News.

“There’s no doubt that the most eastern-facing NATO member states are quite rightly anxious about Russia’s actions in Ukraine,” Pauly said. “The United States obviously views it as its duty to oblige by the responsibilities of NATO membership to hold the line on the eastern front of NATO.”

Indeed, the U.S. has already sent in troops amid the Russian aggression to support NATO’s eastern flank.

“Make no mistake, the United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of American power,” Biden said this week. “An attack against one NATO country is an attack against all of us.”

Preventing ‘world war’

The U.S. has sent thousands of additional troops to Central and Eastern Europe in recent weeks, though Biden has made it clear he won’t be sending any to Ukraine to fight Russia and has stressed the importance of diplomacy toward achieving de-escalation.

In an interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt earlier this week, Biden acknowledged the risk of further aggression. When asked what scenario could prompt him to send troops to aid Americans in Ukraine, Biden said, “There’s not. That’s a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another.”

“We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation, and things could go crazy quickly,” he said.

The risk of the conflict escalating beyond Ukraine is “high,” Michael “Mick” Patrick Mulroy, ABC News national security and defense analyst, said on ABC News Live this week.

“It should be a concern to everybody,” he said.

Preserving democracy and sovereignty

Another important dimension to U.S. involvement in the crisis has to do with its support of Ukraine as a democracy, Pauly said. Since 1991, when Ukraine declared its independence, the U.S. has offered “substantial” foreign aid, particularly in the 1990s, to help it emerge from the Soviet period, democratize and develop a free market economy, he said.

“Ukraine is a democracy, it’s the only really functioning democracy of the few in the former Soviet space,” Pauly said. “Although democratization has had sort of a challenging path in Ukraine, it’s hard to argue that it is not a democracy.”

“Democracy in Ukraine is worth protecting,” he continued. “Democracy is our best guarantee against war and best assurance of peace.”

The U.S., along with Western allies, has also voiced support for Ukraine maintaining its sovereignty and territorial integrity against Russian aggression.

Biden said the U.S. has been supplying Ukraine’s military with arms, training and intelligence to help defend itself.

“Nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the president said Tuesday. “They have the freedom to set their own course and choose with whom they will associate.”

Impact at home

The exact impact of an invasion beyond the front lines remains unclear. Though Biden warned the American people that there would be “consequences at home” — foremost an increase in energy prices as a result.

“I will not pretend this will be painless,” Biden said Tuesday. “There could be impact on our energy prices, so we’re taking active steps to alleviate the pressure on our own energy markets and offset rising prices.”

In an incursion limited to eastern Ukraine, there could be a rise in the price of oil by $5 or $10 a barrel, according to Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy. Currently, a $1 per barrel rise equates to about a 1.5 cents per gallon rise in the national average price of gas. Should the U.S. and allies issue severe sanctions on Russia, it could retaliate by curbing oil exports, he said, impacting global markets.

If higher oil and gas prices cause the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in its monetary tightening, that could also impact inflation, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

Cyberwarfare also remains a concern. Last month, the Department of Homeland Security warned that the U.S. response to a possible Russian invasion could result in a cyberattack launched against the U.S. by the Russian government or its proxies.

There’s also the impact on American troops, as more military forces are being deployed to support NATO countries.

“I think [Americans] should be paying attention to this because it could significantly affect strategic deployments of U.S. personnel,” Albert said. “If nothing else, just people moving from where they are in their typical assignments right now, to move somewhere else, more strategically positioned against, perhaps, a Russian invasion.”

ABC News’ Conor Finnegan, Molly Nagle, Sarah Kolinovsky, Zunaira Zaki, Mary Burke, Layne Winn and Will Kim contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2022, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.