(NEW YORK) — One year into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a new report by the social media company Meta details the evolution of pro-Russian influence campaigns online.
The report describes a declining presence for Russian state media outlets on Meta’s platforms Facebook and Instagram, as well as crude efforts by covert pro-Russian networks to maintain their reach in the face of a crackdown by Meta.
According to Meta’s report, the company responded to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine with restrictions on Russian state-controlled media outlets, including curbs on advertising and limiting the reach of the outlets’ content in users’ feeds.
Since then, Meta observed, Russian state media outlets have become less active on its platforms and their posts have attracted less attention.
However, at the same time, some Russian state media outlets have been inviting their audiences to follow them on other platforms.
“Russian state media outlets have significantly reduced their activity on our platforms and pivoted elsewhere,” the company noted.
Meta also cracked down in 2022 on covert, unofficial networks promoting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including a group it identified as “Cyber Front Z,” which the company said had links to Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Prigozhin was charged in 2018 by U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller for allegedly funding the Internet Research Agency, an online “troll farm” accused of attempting to influence U.S. politics.
In Nov. 2022, Prigozhin admitted in a social media statement that he had interfered in U.S. elections.
In an August 2022 report, Meta said the Cyber Front Z network was operated in part by individuals linked to the Internet Research Agency. The network’s existence was first revealed earlier that year in a March exposé by the Russian outlet Fontanka.
Along with another pro-Russia network known as “Doppleganger,” Cyber Front Z was reportedly active not just on Meta’s platforms but on other services including Telegram, Twitter, TikTok and LinkedIn.
In the August report, Meta said the Cyber Front Z network was “clumsy and largely ineffective,” noting that on Instagram, for example, more than half of the fake accounts created by the network were quickly detected and removed upon creation.
“On our platforms, these networks resembled brute-force, ‘smash-and-grab’ attempts to use a large number of low-quality accounts all at once, in the hope that at least a few might survive and escape detection,” the company said in its latest report.
When Meta cracked down on Cyber Front Z and Doppleganger, they responded “aggressively” in an effort to restore their online presence, at a scale the company described as unusual for Russia-based covert influence campaigns.
Meta said in its report that it had detected and disrupted “thousands” of attempts to create fake accounts and “hundreds more” efforts at sharing fake websites, including some masquerading as real news outlets.
Meta suggested in its report that this aggressiveness could result from a lack of preparation by the networks’ operators for the unique context of a fast-paced, full-scale war, adding that those responsible for the covert networks were likely still paid despite the low quality and minimal impact of their work.
“These actors can provide plausible deniability to their customers, but they also have an interest in exaggerating their own effectiveness,” Meta said in its report.
Prigozhin, the Internet Research Agency’s alleged operator, is also known as the owner of the private military company Wagner, whose members have fought alongside Russian troops in Ukraine.
Meta’s latest report on covert pro-Russian online networks comes amid an increasingly public feud between Prigozhin and the Russian military establishment. In a recent audio statement, Prigozhin accused top Russian military and defense officials of depriving Wagner fighters of ammunition.
(EAST PALESTINE, Ohio) — Residents of an Ohio village upended by a hazardous train derailment confronted officials about their health and safety concerns on Wednesday night.
“I don’t feel safe in this town,” said one resident, Jim Stewart. “You took it away from me. You took this away from us.”
Local, state and federal leaders along with the head of the rail operator at the center of the crisis fielded questions from residents of East Palestine, Ohio, during a town hall hosted by CNN. The residents were, at times, angry and frustrated as they repeatedly pressed officials on how their safety can be ensured and how long it will take. The officials maintained an even keel on what they have said over the past three weeks: that they are committed to safety, they’re not going anywhere and they’re working to make this right.
“I lost a lot. I lost the value of my home,” Stewart told Norfolk Southern Railway President and CEO Alan Shaw. “We were going to sell our house.”
“I’m 65 years old, a diabetic, AFib, heart disease — did you shorten my life now? I want to retire and enjoy it. How are we going to enjoy it? You burned me,” he continued. “Do I mow the grass? Can I plant tomatoes next summer? What can I do? I’m afraid to! And it’s in the air. Every day I cough — a little cough here, a little cough there — I’ve never had that.”
“Your derailment, it’s changed me now. It’s made me an angry man,” he added. “I don’t want to be like that.”
Shaw told East Palestine residents that Norfolk Southern is “absolutely focused on safety” and the company invests more than $1 billion each year toward maintenance and equipment. But he admitted that “clearly this is a situation where our safety culture and our investments didn’t prevent this accident.”
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and other officials promised never to gaslight the East Palestine community or paint a dishonestly “rosy” picture, but to relay information as they have it and do all they can to make the village whole again, such as continuing to test the municipal water supply.
“We’ve been very careful not to tell anybody it’s OK until we have evidence that it’s OK,” DeWine told residents. “There’s still cleanup to do. There’s still many things to do. So we’re not telling you everything is perfect. No one can tell you that. But as we go through and do one thing at a time and approach this in a methodical way, we’re going to tell you when things are clear.”
“It’s not rosy. We’re not saying everything is good,” the governor added, saying he’s relying on experts to give the green light.
On the night of Feb. 3, about 50 cars of a freight train operated by Norfolk Southern derailed in a fiery crash on the outskirts of East Palestine, which is nestled near Ohio’s state line with Pennsylvania. Eleven of the derailed cars were transporting hazardous materials, five of which contained vinyl chloride, a highly volatile colorless gas produced for commercial uses. Several cars were also carrying ethyl acrylate and isobutylene, which are also considered to be very toxic and possibly carcinogenic. There were no injuries reported from the accident, according to officials.
Efforts to contain a fire at the derailment site stalled the following night, as firefighters withdrew from the blaze due to concerns about air quality and explosions. About half of East Palestine’s roughly 4,700 residents were warned to leave before officials decided on Feb. 6 to conduct a controlled release and burn of the toxic vinyl chloride from the five tanker cars, which were in danger of exploding. A large ball of fire and a plume of black smoke filled with contaminants could be seen billowing high into the sky from the smoldering derailment site as the controlled burn took place that afternoon, prompting concerns from residents about the potential effects.
A mandatory evacuation order for homes and businesses within a one-mile radius of the derailment site was lifted on Feb. 8, after air and water samples taken the day before were deemed safe, officials said.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency deployed a team to East Palestine on Feb. 18 to help support the ongoing operations there.
Last week, the National Transportation Safety Board shared an update on its ongoing probe into the Feb. 3 incident, saying “investigators have identified and examined the rail car that initiated the derailment.”
“Surveillance video from a residence showed what appears to be a wheel bearing in the final stage of overheat failure moments before the derailment,” the NTSB said in an investigative update on Feb. 14. “The wheelset from the suspected railcar has been collected as evidence for metallurgical examination. The suspected overheated wheel bearing has been collected and will be examined by engineers from the NTSB Materials Laboratory in Washington, D.C.”
As of Wednesday afternoon, 4,588 cubic yards of contaminated soil have been removed from the immediate area of the derailment site, according to the Ohio governor’s office. That’s 88 cubic yards more than the previous night, or about enough to fill at least seven dump trucks, in addition to the roughly one-and-a-half Olympic pools’ worth already excavated.
So far, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has conducted indoor air testing at a total of 560 homes in East Palestine and no contaminants associated with the Feb. 3 derailment have been detected. Meanwhile, outdoor air monitoring remains ongoing with 20 air monitors in the area, which similarly have not yet detected any contaminants associated with the incident, according to DeWine’s office.
The Ohio EPA will continue to test East Palestine’s municipal water supply once a week “out of an abundance of caution” to ensure it is safe to drink, the governor’s office said. While the majority of homes in the area get drinking water from the municipal supply, some get theirs from private wells. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Columbiana County General Health District has sampled 74 private wells in the East Palestine area, with the final testing results pending, according to DeWine’s office.
The governor’s office said residents whose drinking water is sourced from private wells should continue drinking bottled water until the testing results are returned. Officials have underscored that those who get their drinking water from private wells should get it tested, especially since those wells may be closer to the surface than municipal water wells and thus potentially easier for any contaminants to seep into.
Norfolk Southern announced Wednesday an “enhanced” plan for excavating the remaining contaminated soil at the derailment site. The cleanup crews, in coordination with the Ohio and U.S. EPAs, will now “temporarily remove the tracks so we can excavate the soil,” according to Shaw, the company’s president and CEO. Norfolk Southern said the “change comes in response to feedback” from East Palestine residents.
“Our original plan would have effectively and safely remediated the soil under our tracks,” Shaw said in a statement. “As I listened to community members over the past two weeks, they shared with me their concerns about that approach. I appreciate the direct feedback, and I am addressing it.”
“It is important to me that the members of this community have confidence in Norfolk Southern’s remediation efforts and that we are working closely with local, state, and federal agencies,” he added. “An important part of this plan is to listen to the concerns of the community and that’s a primary reason why we are going to enhance our plan.”
To date, Norfolk Southern said it has excavated more than 4,800 cubic yards of soil — “or approximately 400 truckloads” — from the derailment site. In addition, 1.7 million gallons of liquid — “or approximately 200 tanker loads” — have been collected for disposal, according to the company. That includes 200,000 gallons collected on Tuesday alone and, as Norfolk Southern noted, the work is not over. The company has not said which chemicals were found in the material that was removed.
Meanwhile, the work to replace the train tracks in the derailment area “will begin immediately,” according to Norfolk Southern.
“Soil preparation will be followed by track removal along the first rail line, excavation of the soil, and then rebuilding the track,” the company said in a press release. “The same process will then follow with the second track. Trains will continue running at slower speeds on one track while the other is being excavated.”
Since the Feb. 3 derailment, Norfolk Southern said it has committed more than $5.6 million to the community of East Palestine, including $3.4 million in direct payments to affected residents.
U.S. EPA Administrator Michael Regan announced Tuesday that his agency is ordering Norfolk Southern “to conduct all necessary actions associated with the cleanup from the East Palestine train derailment.” The Atlanta-based rail operator will be required to continue cleaning up the contaminated soil and water and transport it safely; reimburse the EPA for cleaning services; and attend public meetings at the EPA’s request and share information. If Norfolk Southern does not comply, the company will be ordered to pay triple the cost, according to Regan.
During the CNN town hall on Wednesday night, several East Palestine residents reported suffering from ailments in the wake of the Feb. 3 derailment. Courtney Newman, a teacher and mother who lives one street away from the derailment site, said her son has been having bloody noses ever since they were allowed to return home. Josh Hickman, a longtime resident of the village, said he’s had a sore throat, irritated nose and headaches and that he went to the emergency room on Tuesday because “the amount of blood that came out” when he blew his nose “was alarming.”
Another resident, DJ Yokely, pointedly asked the U.S. EPA administrator: “If you were in our shoes, would you feel 100% safe, based on everything that you’ve heard long term and short term, to raise your kids in our community?”
“Yes, I would, based on the evidence that we have. I understand the skepticism as a father,” Regan replied. “But what I can tell you is what the science tells us and that these readings are indicating that there are safe levels.”
Moreover, resident Ben Ratner pressed the Ohio governor on whether he would commit to spending more than a few hours in East Palestine.
“Until the cleanup is done, you’ll stay with us, within the one mile?” Ratner asked.
“Yes,” DeWine responded. “I have been there three times.”
“For a few hours,” Ratner retorted. “Will you stay overnight for a period of time?”
Whoopi Goldberg will guest-star in an upcoming episode of The Conners, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The actress and The View co-host will reportedly play Ms. Glen, the intimidating music teacher of Ames McNamara‘s character Mark, who also has a complicated history with another member of the Conner family. An airdate for her appearance hasn’t been set. Goldberg is the latest high-profile guest star to appear on The Conners, following William H. Macy, Candice Bergen, Matthew Broderick, Juliette Lewis and Patton Oswalt, among others. The Conners airs Wednesdays at 8 p.m. ET on ABC…
Entertainment Tonight reports Hallmark Channel’s longest-running scripted series, When Calls the Heart, has been renewed for an 11th season, ahead of its season 10 premiere July 30. “I am beyond excited for season 10 of When Calls the Heart to premiere July 30,” said Erin Krakow, series star and executive producer, in a statement. “This season is full of beautiful moments and exciting twists and turns. I can’t wait for the Hearties to see what we’ve created for them!” The season 9 finale, which aired back in May, drew 3.1 million viewers and was the most-watched episode of the season. The series also ranked as 2022’s most-watched scripted series on basic cable in total viewers, averaging 2.9 million every Sunday night…
Paramount Global announced on Wednesday that Waco: The Aftermath — the follow-up to the 2018 limited series — will debut on Showtime, and not Paramount+, as previously announced. The series, starring George & Tammy‘s Michael Shannon, follows the trials of the surviving members of the Branch Davidian sect and the rise of Timothy McVeigh. Showtime says the five-episode series also, “provides a broader context for the escalation of the American militia movement, which foreshadows the infamous attacks of the Oklahoma City bombing and the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.” Waco: The Aftermath debuts April 14 on Showtime’s streaming and on-demand platforms before its linear debut April 16 at 10 p.m., coinciding with the 30th anniversary of the fallout of the Waco disaster…
Presidency of Ukraine/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
(NEW YORK) — As tens of thousands of invading Russian troops and tanks thundered across his nation’s border in February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy received an offer from the United States to evacuate him and his family out of the country.
But in the biggest moment of his yet budding political life, with a world superpower bearing down with brutal force, Zelenskyy rejected the offer to escape, replying, “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
A year later, he and his country are still standing strong, forcefully pushing back against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive campaign to pummel Ukraine into submission.
Zelenskyy set the defiant tone for his country just hours after the war started. He shed his suits and ties for military fatigues and combat boots, and boldly posted a selfie video message to the frightened citizens of his nation. Standing on a street outside his office in the capital city of Kyiv, members of his cabinet and military advisors at his side, the then-44-year-old Zelenskyy stared into the camera and announced he and his leadership team were staying put.
“We are all here defending our independence and we are defending our country and we will keep doing that,” he said.
It was a dramatic rallying cry that echoed around the world and began the transformation of Zelenskyy into a wartime hero with some admirers even comparing him to Great Britain’s Winston Churchill standing up to Nazi Germany during World War II.
At the time of the Feb. 24 invasion, few world leaders and military historians gave Ukraine much of a chance against Russia’s overwhelming ability to strike from the ground and air. However, as missiles decimated Ukrainian cities, destroying residential buildings, hospitals and schools, Ukraine’s ragtag forces — armed with Soviet-era tanks, guns and aircraft — defied the odds and mobilized a stiff resistance, sending the Kremlin a resounding early message that it was in for more of a slugfest than a swift takeover.
Unlikely war hero
A former comedian best known for his TV show in which he portrayed a high-school history teacher who is unexpectedly elected president of Ukraine, Zelenskyy was voted the country’s real president in 2019, running as an anti-establishment candidate. Initially, he was widely viewed by critics and the media as a weak leader, unable to crack down on government corruption even in his own administration despite his campaign promises to do so.
Three years into his presidency, a poll taken by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found 62% of Ukrainians didn’t want him to seek reelection.
In 2014, Russia easily annexed Ukraine’s strategic Crimea peninsula and the Donbas region in the eastern part of the country. As the Kremlin began its threats to invade its neighbor again in late 2021, the odds were heavily in favor of Putin’s forces mowing down any resistance from Ukraine’s military.
As Russia’s threats grew louder, another poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found 53% of Ukrainians believed Zelenskyy wouldn’t be able to defend the county against a full-scale invasion.
But as the war unfolded, Zelenskyy quickly proved the polls and his critics wrong.
By refusing to flee Ukraine when the going got tough, Zelenskyy used social media and daily addresses to rally his troops, citizens and world leaders to help Ukraine in its fight.
In March 2022, Zelenskyy gave a livestream address to the U.S. Congress, stressing the importance of uniting the free world against Russian aggression, saying, “I call on you to do more.”
“Remember Pearl Harbor? … Remember September 11?” Zelenskyy asked. “Our country experiences the same every day right now.”
An early supporter of Ukraine, the United States has sent the country more than $50 billion in military and humanitarian assistance. At least 46 other countries, including members of NATO, have contributed another $66 billion in humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine, including air defense systems, grenade launchers, mortar rounds, missiles and state-of-art tanks.
As a result, Ukrainian troops have pushed back against their Russian foes, even prompting them to retreat from several major battles. In September, Zelensky announced that Ukrainian troops had liberated more than 2,300 square miles of the country from the Russians.
“Certainly, since the beginning of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, we’ve seen the Ukrainians demonstrate a remarkable adaptability and their ability to use their warfighting capabilities to great effect,” U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a Pentagon news conference in September.
Ryder added, “I think if anyone was surprised, just based on the reports that we’ve seen in terms of the Russian military’s response, it was probably the Russians.”
Man of the people
While Ukrainians have shown resilience, the carnage the country has witnessed has been immense. The U.N. High Commission for Human Rights has verified as of Feb. 12 a total of 7,199 civilian deaths attributed to the war, with more the 400 children among the dead.
Many of the communication skills Zelenskyy uses to rally national and global support are the same that made him a successful comedian. He frequently travels to devastated villages to mourn the dead and to meet with survivors, stressing their common fight.
In December, Zelenskyy traveled outside Ukraine for the first time since the war began, flying to Washington and becoming the first foreign leader since Churchill to give a wartime address to Congress. During his speech, Zelenskyy thanked members of Congress for their support and said, “Your money is not charity. It is an investment in global security and democracy.”
This week, President Joe Biden traveled to Ukraine and visited with Zelenskyy, reinforcing the support of the United States in Ukraine’s fight. He also announced $500 million in additional military aid.
“One year ago, the world was bracing for the fall of Kyiv,” Biden said in a speech Tuesday in Warsaw, Poland. “Well, I have just come from a visit to Kyiv, and I can report that Kyiv stands strong. Kyiv stands proud. It stands tall. And most importantly, it stands free.”
(NEW YORK) — One year ago, with Ukraine’s borders surrounded by what seemed to be a superior military force, many U.S. officials and analysts predicted a swift Russian blitz to Kyiv.
But after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his more than 150,000 arrayed troops across the border, it soon became clear that a dual reassessment was in order: The Russian invaders were less potent than advertised, and the Ukrainians were unexpectedly stubborn and wily in the defense.
Some of the Russian troops weren’t even aware they were on a combat mission until Ukrainian bullets came cracking past them, according to U.S. officials. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces stalled a massive Russian supply convoy through direct attacks and by destroying a key bridge. Only one week into the invasion, Putin’s men were plagued with food and fuel shortages, morale running similarly low.
Kyiv stood.
“Putin assumed that Ukraine was an easy target, Putin assumed that Kyiv would easily fall, and Putin assumed that the world would stand by,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a speech in Brussels last week. “But the Kremlin was wrong on every count.”
Ukrainian forces were armed with more than grit.
They also had years of U.S. and NATO military training, plus American-made weapons, like anti-armor Javelins and anti-aircraft Stinger missiles. These made Russian vehicles vulnerable to ambush, and left Russian helicopter and jet pilots wary of flying over Ukrainian positions. Indeed, many airmen did not return from their sorties.
Despite astonishing losses of soldiers and vehicles, Putin has shown no inclination to end the conflict anytime soon. And despite its tenacity, Ukraine has also taken significant casualties, and is not able to produce enough of its own weapons and ammunition to keep up the fight.
Ukraine, after thwarting the advance on its capital, and later routing Russian forces from Kharkiv, now largely faces a battle of supply.
“When this war began, Russia had a larger population, a much bigger defense budget, a bigger military, bigger industrial base. So, this became an industrial war and a war of industrial bases,” said Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This is why Western industrial support has been so critical.”
A key question now is, despite massive military aid packages and a promise to send even more, could the U.S. strategy ultimately result, not in a Ukrainian victory, but a stalemate in a years-long war of attrition?
Impact of US military support
The U.S. has committed nearly $30 billion dollars in security assistance to Ukraine since the invasion began, and Austin has led the 54-nation “Ukraine Defense Contact Group” to help coordinate support from others.
That U.S. aid includes 160 American howitzers with a million artillery rounds, more than 100 million rounds of small-arms ammunition, 8,000 tank-killing Javelins, 109 Bradley fighting vehicles, secure communications equipment, body armor, and much more.
While expressing thanks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently asked the West for more advanced weapons like long-range missiles and fighter jets.
The Biden administration has so far rejected some of these requests and been slow to entertain others.
It has nevertheless incrementally expanded the types of weapons it has helped procure for Ukraine as the war has progressed — from handheld launchers to sophisticated air-defense platforms, to armored vehicles and precision multiple-launch rocket systems.
There is some sense behind this incrementalism, according to Mick Mulroy, an ABC News contributor who served as a CIA officer and deputy assistant secretary of defense.
“We needed to balance to make sure that we didn’t draw this into a larger NATO-versus-Russia, World War III, scenario. We needed to balance that and we needed to see how effective the Ukrainians were going to be with the support we provided them,” Mulroy said.
By now the Ukrainians have proven they can quickly learn to make great use of advanced weapons, and the U.S. could be doing more to help them achieve victory, according to Mulroy.
Jones said if the U.S. wants Ukraine to succeed, and not just settle into stalemate, more is needed.
US too risk averse?
“The administration has done a good job, but I think it’s been sometimes too slow and too risk averse,” Jones said.
In June, the Pentagon announced the U.S. would send High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) with precision ammunition capable of hitting targets up to 50 miles away.
“Ukrainian forces are now using long-range rocket systems to great effect, including HIMARS provided by the United States, and other systems from our allies and partners,” Austin said in July.
But so far, the administration has declined to send longer-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ammunition for the HIMARS. With a range of 190 miles, ATACMS would allow Ukraine to reach out nearly four times further than with the currently provided rockets.
“It’s our assessment that they don’t currently require ATACMS to service targets that are directly relevant to the current fight,” Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl told reporters in August.
Jones disagrees.
“In a ground war, longer range actually ends up being really helpful. So I think we’re at a point right now for the Ukrainians to try to take back additional territory … continuing to give them assistance is helpful. But what they also need now, and what the U.S. has not been willing to give, is long-range fires, like the ATACMS,” he said.
That extra reach would be especially important in retaking Crimea, according to Mulroy.
“If they have any chance to take in Crimea, they’re going to have to reach pretty far in there,” he said.
The administration has changed course on some types of aid it originally wrote off as impractical, most notably Abrams tanks. For other items, such as large MQ-1C drones and F-16 fighters, which some experts say could make a difference in the fight, there’s no indication that’s being reevaluated.
While there are arguments to be made that money for fighter jets could be used to greater effect elsewhere, and that pulling Ukrainian pilots away from the war for a lengthy period of training might not be a worthwhile tradeoff, it’s harder to apply such concerns to sending longer-range missiles for the HIMARS Ukrainians are already trained on and have been using in combat for months.
Fear of escalation
A less-publicized reason for hesitance over sending ATACMS and other sophisticated weapons is fear of escalation between Russia and the West. It’s a fear the Kremlin has deliberately tried to inculcate.
In September, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned the U.S. would be crossing a “red line” were it to supply Ukraine with longer-range weapons.
While threatening language from Putin and his subordinates is concerning, it would not make sense for Russia to extend its aggression into NATO territory, according to Jones, who said, “They’re having enough problems right now in in Ukraine.”
“With an industrial base that’s stretched, with an army that can’t even defeat a second or third-rate power, the idea that they would expand this to include NATO countries … would be very irrational,” Jones added.
But Putin’s decision to invade in the first place was perhaps less than rational, and even if too conventionally depleted to match the U.S. and its allies, Russia still wields an awesome unconventional arsenal.
“The cloak has been pulled back — Russia is not a superpower, militarily, at all. But they have 6,000 nuclear weapons,” Mulroy said.
While Putin has not followed through on several previous threats, the prospect of Ukraine using long-range American missiles to hit targets across its border would likely be the greatest “red line” test of the conflict so far.
Jones and Mulroy both believe Ukraine could put ATACMS to better use pushing Russian forces out of its territory than by striking the Russian mainland.
Either way, while a beleaguered Kyiv could be morally and strategically justified in deciding to hit the land of its aggressor, land which is being used to launch attacks on Ukraine and to supply the Russian war effort, such a move could have unintended consequences.
“I’m suggesting that we give them what they need to fight and repel them out of Ukraine, but not taking strikes in Russia, which could then basically shore up president Putin’s support,” Mulroy said.
The U.S. could also offer ATACMS on condition they only be used within Ukraine. Once the missiles were in Ukraine, the restrictions could always be loosened if the U.S. deemed necessary.
But ultimately, the goals of not upsetting Russia and of helping Ukraine defeat Russia’s invasion are incompatible — the most effective U.S. support for Ukraine will tend also to be the most at risk of angering Putin.
“I think the U.S. has to make a decision here about whether it helps Ukraine retake the territory that has been illegally taken through conquest and then annexed, or you’re going worry about not escalating with the Russians” Jones said.
What ‘victory’ means remains vague
The Biden administration has been vague when it comes to defining what victory means for Ukraine, and in stating the ultimate goal of U.S. aid.
America’s top general offered the following during a press conference in November:
“We will continue to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to keep them free, sovereign, independent, with their territory intact,” chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, said.
However, 10 minutes later during the same press conference, Milley said a military victory is not on the horizon:
“The probability of a Ukrainian military victory, defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine … the probability of that happening any time soon is not high, militarily,” he said. “It may be a political solution where, politically, the Russians withdraw. That’s possible. You want to negotiate from a position of strength.”
So far, neither Moscow nor Kyiv have shown any interest in voluntarily resolving the conflict or willingly ceding ground, preferring instead to adjudicate matters on the battlefield.
Mulroy hopes the West will “start equipping and supporting the Ukrainians to win, and not just ‘not lose’ — and that means aircraft, long-range fires, and developing a sustainable logistical pipeline that ensures no break in the support getting to the front lines.”
Jones also emphasized the importance of increasing aid for Ukraine, if victory is the goal.
As for escalation, Jones inverted the usual thinking, putting onus on the invaders.
“This is on the Russians in the end, and I would focus on supporting the Ukrainians and worry a little bit less about the Russians, who got themselves into this mess,” Jones said.
Biden and members of his Cabinet have said the U.S. will continue to support Ukraine “as long as it takes.”
But victory as Zelenskyy defines it — complete reclamation of all occupied territory, with Russian reimbursement for damages as well as long-term security guarantees — could take more than just prolonged support. More powerful support might be needed.
(ORLANDO, Fla.) — Two people have been shot and killed, including an Orlando news employee and 9-year-old girl, and multiple people were injured Wednesday in Pine Hills, Florida, police said.
According to Orange County Sheriff John Mina, the mother of the 9-year-old and another member of the Spectrum News 13 crew were also shot in the same area and are in critical condition.
The mother and child were shot in their nearby home. Mina said it was unclear why they were targeted.
The news crew was on the scene reporting on a 20-year-old woman shot and killed in the area this morning when they were shot at, police said.
Police arrested suspect Keith Melvin Moses, 19, in connection to the shootings. Moses was allegedly arrested while armed with a firearm that authorities believe will link him to the shootings, according to the sheriff.
According to Mina, Moses has a lengthy criminal history and is expected to be charged with each murder.
“I want to acknowledge what a horrible day this has been for our community and our media partners,” Mina said.
The victims were taken to the same regional hospital that cared for victims of the 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting, according to ABC News Orlando affiliate WFTV.
Charter Communication, the parent company of Spectrum News, said they were “saddened by the loss of our colleague and the other lives senselessly taken today,” in a statement.
“Our thoughts are with our employee’s family, friends and co-workers during this very difficult time. We remain hopeful that our other colleague who was injured makes a full recovery. This is a terrible tragedy for the Orlando community,” the statement said.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre also offered her sympathies.
“Our hearts go out to the family of the journalist killed today and the crew member injured in Orange County, Florida, as well as the whole Spectrum News team,” she tweeted.
(NEW YORK) — As the pandemic seemingly enters a new phase with the public health emergency ending in early May, many COVID data trackers are shutting down, no longer sharing data such as number of cases or hospitalizations, despite about 500 Americans dying each day from the disease.
Experts interviewed by ABC News detail how the onset of the pandemic brought a slew of data trackers to monitor numbers to inform officials. They warn that investments in epidemiological tracking can’t dwindle, especially as respiratory illnesses like influenza and RSV placed a heavy burden on some hospitals across the nation this past winter.
John Hopkins University reported their Coronavirus Resource Center will be shut down in early March. The site was one of the first to track real-time COVID data and was widely appreciated — even the White House relied on the site in the very beginning of the pandemic to learn about the outbreak that was occurring abroad, explained Dr. Blythe Adamson Ph. D., CEO and founder of infectious economics and former member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, told ABC News.
“Clearly the challenges, especially at the earliest outset of a pandemic, was that there was not really good data infrastructure to report aggregate data, like case counts. The Johns Hopkins tracker played a real vital role in filling in some of those gaps,” said John Brownstein, Ph.D., an ABC News contributor and chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital.
Other trackers, like the one managed by the Department of Health and Human Services are being shut down as well, in favor of the dashboard managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Accurate data has been essential for public health officials and policymakers to develop and adjust COVID policies. Yet, almost no jurisdiction is widely imposing any policies like mask-wearing or social distancing.
“These trackers are only as valuable as the actions that they inform and where we’re at in the pandemic. There are still a lot of important decisions that need to be made, actions that can be taken and I would argue that the type of information that we need to make those decisions is different now than it was at the beginning of the pandemic,” Adamson said.
Losing momentum on the investments made in public health data may place communities in vulnerable positions, experts say.
“The investments that took place in COVID should extend out to other public health crises and I think that has always been a worry, that post-response we’d be left with a graveyard of software code that would basically be never utilized and that would be such a shame,” Brownstein said.
At-home tests have now made case numbers less reliable, although officials continue to encourage anonymously reporting tests to MakeMyTestCount.org — a site led by the National Institutes of Health. Experts say tracking cases can still help inform public health agencies.
“For infectious diseases, it’s very important for public health agencies – I’m really referring to state and local health departments and CDC – to continuously monitor how many people are getting sick, who is getting sick and of course to evaluate the pathogen itself,” said Dr. Jay Varma, director of the Cornell Center for Pandemic Prevention and Response.
Tracking cases is also important because it alerts officials of potential surges. There have been some notable ones like the Delta surge in the summer of 2021 which impacted many hospitals.
Yet, the Omicron surge obliterated its predecessors in terms of the sheer numbers of cases. Since then, small rises in cases have all been attributed to offshoots of the variant.
“I don’t think we fully know the intrinsic versus extrinsic factors that are influencing these cycles. There’s absolutely a behavioral component. There’s an intrinsic biological component. We’re seeing waves of different magnitude, at three to six months increments,” Brownstein said.
“The reality is sometimes it can take many years after a new pathogen enters the world for us to understand what these patterns are, and what the factors are that drive them,” Varma said.
COVID numbers will continue to ebb and flow, yet a serious surge would most likely require a completely new variant, experts believe.
“I think, without a doubt, we will have surges. The frequency and size of those surges is still very hard to predict. In all likelihood, we will see a bigger surge at some point in the coming year or two. We will likely be challenged with a new variant, no mitigation strategies and waning immunity and I think that recipe will lead to a surge,” Brownstein said.
In general, predicting COVID numbers — just like predicting how the stock market will do — is an almost impossible task.
“One of the most important lessons of the COVID pandemic has been that subject matter experts, like myself, have to be very humble about making predictions for the future,” Varma said
However, experts are optimistic that things will get better.
“The most likely scenario is that through repeated infections, and through vaccination, COVID will overtime cause fewer hospitalizations and deaths than it has over the past few years,” he added.
(KYIV, Ukraine) — In the basement of the Syayvo book store in Kyiv, hundreds of Russian language books stand piled, waiting to be pulped.
The books — ranging from everything between the classics of Russian literature, detective novels translated into Russian and Soviet-era textbooks — have been donated by Ukrainians who have turned away from Russian culture to embrace their own since the invasion last year.
They are set to be recycled and turned into Ukrainian language texts or other products, with all profits going to support the war effort, Nadia Kibenko, 32, the store worker who is handling the books, told ABC News. They have recycled 75 tons — around 150,000 volumes — since last July, she said.
As a child, Kibenko grew up in a Ukrainian speaking household but, more often than not, only had the choice to read in Russian.
“We do not burn books,” she said. “We just give them second life.”
The cultural battleground is not just symbolic. Witnesses from the Russian occupied territories say that, in schools, Ukrainian language books were thrown out and replaced by Russian ones, for a new curriculum which taught Putin’s view that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people.”
A report by PEN America published in Dec. 2022 said that “culture was on the frontlines” and that Putin “seeks not only to control Ukrainian territory, but to erase Ukrainian culture and identity.”
Olga Kozyrieva lives in the eastern settlement of Petropavlivka, Kharkiv region, which was occupied by Russian forces before being liberated in Ukraine’s counteroffensive in September last year.
“Many children came here for books in Ukrainian,” Kozyrieva told ABC News, standing in the ruins of a school that was shelled. “But during the occupation, the Russians brought their own books and they wanted to teach our children the Russian language and literature.”
Families there said they hid Ukrainian books in their homes — evidence that Russia was not just trying to take Ukrainians’ land, but turn it into Russia.
While other places like Petropavlivka will be in Russia’s sights as they launch a new offensive, it is one of the ironic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine that, far from bringing the country back into Moscow’s sphere of influence, the invasion has proved a rallying cry to strengthen Ukrainians’ sense of national unity.
“I want to get rid of all the books in Russian and instead buy new ones in Ukrainian,” Oleksandra Kovalenko, a student in Kyiv who brought books to be recycled, told ABC News. “I’m disgusted with the Russian language because I’ve lost many relatives in this war. I want to throw it all away.”
Most Ukrainians are bilingual, but many have refused to speak Russian since the war began. Even those with Russian as their first language have taken up Ukrainian.
“People switched to Ukrainian because they believe it’s important,” Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine Forum at the think tank Chatham House, told ABC News. “They want to break away from anything that has to do with this Russian world. Be it language, be it culture, be it even religious calendar.”
The significant proportion of Russian-speaking Ukrainians has led to misconceptions about Ukraine abroad, according to Dr. Marnie Howlett, a political scientist at the University of Oxford who has researched the growth of national identity in Ukraine.
“The International community have assumed that Ukraine has just continued to be this divided east versus west, a Russian [speaking] versus Ukrainian [speaking] country,” said Howlett. “And it’s really it’s so much more complex than that.”
The recycled Russian books in Kyiv are just one symbol of this. Things like street and place names have been changed and statues to Soviet leaders have been pulled down, angering the Kremlin. In 2019, a law was passed that required Ukrainian to be the official language of all government activities.
Since the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 , the process of “de-russification” — the term for the removal of Russian cultural influence from Ukraine — has accelerated since the invasion last year.
“There has been a desire from the bottom up to move away from that and Ukraine has really been working towards that,” Howlett said. “To Russia, that suggests the loss of the empire that once was.”
“Now you, the Russian occupiers, are creating this problem. You are doing everything to make our people stop speaking Russian themselves. Russia itself is doing everything to ensure that de-russification takes place on the territory of our state,” President Volodomyr Zelenskyy said in an address one month after the full scale invasion.
On the monument formerly known as the Friendship Arch in the capital, built to commemorate the close ties between Ukraine and Russia under the USSR — a crack has now been painted to symbolize that break. It too has been renamed — and is now known as the “Arch of Freedom” for the Ukrainian people.
Since the invasion, Ukrainians who may have felt closer affinity with Russia in the past have been forced to choose — particularly in the face of atrocities committed by occupying forces that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris recently declared were “crimes against humanity.”
“In the east and south, where there was always a stronger connection to Russia, people are fighting back to protect their existence and their existence within the borders of Ukrainian nation,” Lutsevych said. “Since Russia invaded, that ambivalence became impossible.”
Not all Ukrainians may agree. Ties with Russian culture still run deep in many parts of the country. But with the path to peace a long way off and as the full-scale war passes the first-year mark, Ukrainians are largely united around President Zelenskyy’s vision for a modern Ukraine, polls reported in the country suggest, a vision that looks to the West and Europe as the future and away from its past with Russia.
“If there is a threat to your identity, you start defending it and appreciating it,” Lutsevych said. “The moment the other attacks you like has happened in Ukraine, you suddenly become this porcupine, with a cultural shield.”
It was a long road to Gravel & Gold, Dierks Bentley‘s tenth album, which arrives Friday.
His last studio effort, The Mountain, came out way back in June of 2018, though he’s since topped the chart with “Gone” and “Beers on Me.”
Dierks thought he was ready to make his record in Nashville in March 2021, but that didn’t turn out to be the case. He admits COVID testing and wearing masks killed the studio vibe that’s so important. He even hung a picture of Buck Owens, hoping it would help, to no avail.
Six months later, he tried again with producer Luke Dick. Even though they were producing “B+, A-” material, Dierks walked away knowing what he wanted.
“I started realizing at that point that what this whole idea of a 10th album meant to me is I wanted it to be a collection of everything I’d done…” he reflects. “[It] should have that Luke Dick stuff, but it should also have the bluegrass and the nineties and the traditional.”
Then, the third time worked.
“It’s just a feel thing, you know? It’s like when I sip whiskey, I can’t tell you all the different flavors. I just know good or bad or great or ‘Wow!'” he laughs.
“You just know when it’s right,” Dierks continues. “And that third time around… we’d been grinding hard enough, been back in town long enough, had a vision for what I wanted to say, it just kind of all came together.”
On Thursday at 8 p.m. ET, you can livestream Dierks’ Gravel & Gold performance from the Country Music Hall of Fame via Twitch channel 3point5.
Is Sam Smith going to be making an appearance on …And Just Like That? All signs point to yes.
On Wednesday, the singer posted a photo of themselves on Instagram emerging from a trailer, with the caption “Up to something unholy on set” — a reference to their Grammy-winning number-one hit.
The photo was cross-posted on the official Instagram site for the HBO Max series, which is a sequel to Sex and the City. Sam’s “Unholy” duet partner Kim Petras commented on their post with the “mind blown” emoji.
It’s not clear what Sam will be doing on the show — acting, singing or something else.
The second season of the show, which will premiere at some point this year, will include returning Sex and the City stars Sarah Jessica Parker, Cynthia Nixon and Kristin Davis, plus guest star Tony Danza and, reprising his Sex and the City role of Aidan, John Corbett.
In fact, earlier this month, Sarah Jessica Parker posted a photo showing her character Carrie kissing her former lover Aidan, with the caption “This.Is.Not.A.Drill.”
