(SEOUL, South Korea) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has seemed to have lost 44 pounds in the past two years, according to South Korean lawmakers who were briefed by the country’s intelligence agency in a closed-door meeting.
The massive weight loss has prompted rumors and conspiracies that North Korea was using a Kim Jong Un body double, which South Korea said is untrue.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service conducted the assessment “based on various scientific methods including artificial intelligence” using super-resolution video analysis and a stereometry analysis model that gauges facial fat and weight, Rep. Kim Byung-Kee of the ruling Democratic Party told reporters.
Kim’s often-reported health problems do not pose any serious issues, South Korea said. The analysis also concluded that the conspiracy theories suggesting North Korea may have been exposing a Kim Jong Un look-alike are not credible.
The most noticeable change was the disappearance of the official portraits of his father and grandfather, former leaders Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung, from the main walls of official meetings. Instead, the communist regime religiously hung the two portraits in all public areas and individual homes.
“Kim seems to have been working on building a people-friendly image by releasing photos of him drinking beer and smoking together with high-level officials,” Byung-Kee said.
Kim has been more active in public appearances this year compared to the year before. So far, he has been seen through North Korean state media for a total of 70 days in 2021. In contrast, he appeared 49 times during the same time in 2020.
(TEHRAN, Iran) — Iran has agreed to restart negotiations over its nuclear program next month, its chief negotiator said Wednesday.
Those talks, in which Iran and the U.S. have engaged through intermediaries, come as the Obama-era nuclear deal hangs by a thread and amid warnings about Iran’s nuclear advances since Iran halted talks in June.
It’s unclear whether an agreement has been reached to resume talks, when they would begin and whether Iran still has preconditions like sanctions relief. Iran’s top negotiator, deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani, said the “exact date will be announced next week.”
A State Department spokesperson told ABC News the administration had “seen the reports but do not have any further details about a possible return to Vienna talks in November.”
Iran had halted those talks in the Austrian capital right before its presidential election in June, saying for months now that the new administration of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi needed time to transition and formulate his team.
But during that halt, Iran has advanced its nuclear program — expanding its stockpile of enriched uranium, enriching uranium to higher levels, spinning more centrifuges and more advanced ones — alarming U.S. officials.
It has also obstructed the work of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, whose chief said last week its monitoring ability is “no longer intact.”
The Biden administration has increasingly warned that while the door is still open to diplomacy, time is running out before restoring the deal would be pointless because of how advanced Iran’s nuclear program had become.
“This window will not remain open forever as Iran continues to take provocative nuclear steps, so we hope that they come to Vienna to negotiate quickly and in good faith,” the State Department spokesperson said Wednesday in a statement.
To critics, that window should have already been closed, while many analysts warned that Iran is still stalling, even as it talks about resuming negotiations.
“If they continue to stall while advancing their nuclear program, there may come a time when the U.S. or Israel turn to ‘plan B’,” tweeted Nicholas Miller, a Dartmouth College professor who researches nuclear proliferation.
The top U.S. negotiator, special envoy for Iran Rob Malley, said Monday there’s “shared impatience” with Iran among the U.S. and other negotiating parties — Russia, China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union, which coordinated the previous six rounds of talks.
“Time is not on our side. The JCPOA cannot survive forever,” Malley added, using an acronym for the nuclear deal’s formal name.
But there’s still a “strong preference for diplomacy, for an effort to revive the JCPOA,” he said, and said there’s “willingness” and “determination” from the Biden administration to make it happen.
On Wednesday, Bagheri met with Enrique Mora, a senior European Union diplomat who had been facilitating the talks. After their “serious and constructive conversation,” Bagheri tweeted, Iran “agreed to start negotiations by the end of November.”
But his boss, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, also said Wednesday that while Iran would restart talks, it would not resume them with what had been agreed upon by June — jettisoning months of previous negotiations. He also called on the U.S. to release $10 billion of Iranian funds frozen by U.S. sanctions to build confidence ahead of any agreement.
That’s a sign of how far apart the new U.S. and Iranian governments are. Even if the parties convene again in Vienna, it will be a long road ahead to revive the deal.
As Abdollahian reiterated, Iran has demanded that the U.S. lift sanctions first, since it was former President Donald Trump who first violated the deal by exiting and reimposing sanctions. But President Joe Biden has committed to not lifting any sanctions until Iran returns to compliance — what his administration calls a “mutual return” to the deal — amid continued domestic criticism of the original agreement in Washington.
In the meantime, as Iranian centrifuges continue to spin, Iran hawks in the U.S. and Israel warn that it’s too late for diplomacy and that other options, including a possible military strike, must be considered.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has not engaged questions about a strike but told reporters two weeks ago the Biden administration was considering “every option to deal with the challenge posed by Iran.”
“We, of course, retain all other options to be able to deal with this program as necessary,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Tuesday. “But beyond that, I’m not going to comment further because we believe there still is an opportunity to resolve this diplomatically.”
(LONDON) — A college at the University of Cambridge is set to return an artifact looted by British soldiers to Nigeria, in a move described as “the first institutional return of its kind.”
On Wednesday, Jesus College Cambridge will hand over a statue of a cockerel — a young rooster — to Nigeria’s National Commission for Museums and Monuments. The statue is a Benin Bronze, part of a collection of artifacts stolen from the Kingdom of Benin in modern-day Nigeria by British soldiers in 1897. Many of the other Benin Bronzes are on display at the British Museum.
The return comes amid growing pressure in Western countries to return artifacts looted during colonization.
“This is an historic moment,” Sonita Alleyne, Master of Jesus College, said in a statement. “We look forward to welcoming representatives from Nigeria and Benin to the handover ceremony and to celebrating the return of this Bronze.”
“This is the right thing to do out of respect for the unique heritage and history of this artifact,” she added.
The Nigerian government has welcomed the return of the statue.
“We thank Jesus College for being a trailblazer and we look forward to a similar return of our artifacts by other institutions that are in possession of them,” Alhaji Lai Mohammed, the Minister for Information and Culture, said in a statement.
This week, British media reported that the Nigerian government had sent a formal letter to the British Museum, which holds the largest collection of Benin Bronzes, requesting the return of the artifacts.
In France, the Quai Branly Museum is also set to return 26 Benin Bronzes, with the collection on display until the end of the month before they are sent to Nigeria. Germany is also set to return hundreds of looted artifacts to Nigeria.
“This return offers new hope for amicable resolution in cultural property ownership disputes,” Professor Abba Isa Tijani, the Director-General of the National Commission for Museums and Monuments of Nigeria, said. “We hope that it will set a precedent for others around the world who are still doubtful of this new evolving approach whereby nations and institutions agree with source nations on return without rancour.”
“On our part, the National Commission for Museums and Monuments is receiving this antiquity for the benefit of the Benin people and the people of Nigeria,” he added.
(LONDON) — Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II will not travel to Scotland next week as planned as she continues to follow doctors’ advice to rest.
The queen had been scheduled to attend an evening reception next Monday at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP26, in Glasgow.
Instead, Queen Elizabeth, 95, will stay at Windsor Castle and deliver an address to attendees via a recorded video message, Buckingham Palace said in a statement Tuesday.
The palace noted the queen was “disappointed not to attend” and said she has been “undertaking light duties” at Windsor Castle and “following advice to rest.”
The queen spent one night in the hospital last week for “preliminary investigations.” She was released the next day, on Oct. 21, and was back at her desk at Windsor Castle that afternoon, a palace spokesperson confirmed last week.
The queen made her first public appearance since her hospitalization on Tuesday, when she held a virtual audience at Windsor Castle to receive South Korea’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Gunn Kim.
The queen, wearing a yellow dress and a pearl necklace, spoke with the ambassador via video link from the royal residence in England’s Berkshire county, where she has been staying since her hospitalization.
Last week, Queen Elizabeth hosted a reception at Windsor Castle for a global investment summit where she met with leaders, including Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and U.S. climate envoy John Kerry.
Just prior to her hospitalization, Queen Elizabeth was also forced to cancel a trip to Northern Ireland under orders from her medical team to rest.
(YAKUTSK, Russia) — Thirty years ago, the road out from the village of Mai was flat. So were the fields around it, enough that local people used to play football on them.
But today, the road and fields around this town in the remote Siberian region of Yakutia, are strangely warped, an expanse of wavy ground and weird bubble-like mounds, that a drive over will bounce passengers out of their seats.
“This plot of land was very flat. In 1994, we played football, volleyball on it,” Petr Yefremov, a local scientist who grew up in the village, told ABC News. “And you see, in that time, it’s fallen like that.”
The odd ground around the village is a sign of how in Siberia climate change is literally re-shaping the landscape, as rapidly warming temperatures start to alter what has long been a given in much of Russia’s vast hinterland: that the ground is frozen.
Around two-thirds of Russia is covered by permafrost — permanently frozen ground that never thaws, even during summers. It runs from just below the surface of much of Siberia for sometimes thousands of meters underground, kept frozen by the region’s fierce colds.
But Siberia is warming and faster than almost anywhere else on Earth. Russia’s average annual temperatures are currently rising two and a half times faster than the global average, according to Russian government data.
In Yakutia, the vast region where Mai is located, the warming is causing permafrost to start thawing. As it does, swamps and lakes are mushrooming around the region, as well as the strange landscapes like that around the village.
“The changes are noticeable,” Pavel Konstatinov, head of the laboratory at the Melnikov Permafrost Institute in Yakutia’s capital Yakutsk, about 3,000 miles from Moscow, told ABC News.
Stretching down from the Arctic, Yakutia would be larger than most countries if it was independent and is one of the coldest inhabited places on Earth, with winter temperatures routinely reaching below -70 Fahrenheit.
But Yakutia’s average temperatures have risen by around 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the past 40 years, according to local scientists. Like much of the Arctic, it is already well ahead of the 1.5 degrees Celsius that scientists have said the earth’s temperature must not breach to avoid already catastrophic climate change.
Yakutia is seeing milder winters — though still bitterly cold — and in summer increasingly extreme heat, according to Russian government meteorological data. For the past four years, it has suffered record drought and heatwaves, which this summer contributed to colossal wildfires, some of the biggest ever anywhere in recorded history.
“Since the start of the 1980s, it has very sharply increased and the average annual air temperature for five years has jumped up 2, 3 degrees and until now stands at that level,” said Konstantinov.
Yefremov, also a scientist at the Permafrost Institute, has studied permafrost for three decades. He and a team from the institute have sunk temperature monitors several meters into the permafrost near Mai.
Yefremov said that when the team first took measurements in the mid-1990s, the frozen soil’s temperature 10 meters below ground was around -3. Now, it is closer to -1, he said.
“You see already how much it has fallen. Within 30 years, it’s fallen from -3 to -1 degrees,” he told ABC News during a visit to the monitors in August.
As the permafrost melts, it retreats further beneath the surface. In places like Mai, the receding ice leaves hollows underground. Over time, the top layer of earth begins to fall in, leaving little valleys that create the strange, uneven mounds. From above, the files look almost like giant scales. Eventually, the mounds all fall in together to form large pits that usually become lakes.
The land affected becomes largely useless for agriculture or building.
The amount of thawing in Yakutia varies drastically from place to place, depending on other ground conditions. It is far faster in areas where the permafrost is mixed with unfrozen ground and where there is water and some human activities.
Vladimir Romanovsky, a professor of geophysics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said that there was not yet “massive thawing” of permafrost but that we are now crossing the threshold into it.
“Ten or 20 years from now, that will be a different picture,” he told ABC News. “If the trajectory will continue the same— we will have massive thawing of permafrost in warmer, discontinuous permafrost zone.”
“Discontinuous” permafrost refers to areas where it is mixed with stretches of unfrozen land, unlike parts of the Arctic where the permafrost stretches as an unbroken mass.
Romanovsky said in Alaska, where conditions are somewhat different to Yakutia, he estimated around 50% of permafrost in the state’s interior had begun to show signs of thawing in the past five years.
Scientists at Yakutia’s Permafrost Institute this year estimated as much of 40% of Yakutia’s territory is at risk of “dangerous” melting. Permafrost Konstantinov said some projections suggested even in moderate scenarios, a third to a quarter of southern Yakutia’s permafrost would melt by the end of the century.
Some scientists worry that it also poses a profound threat for the rest of the world. The frozen soil holds hundreds of billions of tons of greenhouse gases, like methane and CO2, which are released as it slowly thaws.
The fear is that as the thawing unlocks more of the gases, they will further warm the planet, in turn triggering more melting. The amount of gases held in the permafrost dwarf those already put into the atmosphere by humans, and the fear of a cataclysmic feedback loop has led some scientists to call Siberia’s melting permafrost a possible “methane time bomb.”
Scientists caution there is still insufficient evidence to know how much melting greenhouse gas could be released by melting permafrost, but most experts believe it is a concern.
In Russia, the shifting ground is already posing enormous consequences, putting at risk roads, buildings and infrastructure across Siberia.
When frozen, permafrost is as hard as concrete and so most buildings in Yakutsk are constructed without foundations.
For that reason in Yakutsk, most buildings sit on stilts that raise them about a meter off the ground. Otherwise, heat from the buildings would thaw the permafrost beneath them, essentially turning their foundations into sand and causing them to subside.
Some older buildings in Yakutsk give a preview of what happens when the permafrost melts under them.
On a central street, one block is slowly collapsing. Huge cracks started appearing in the walls around five years ago. Local authorities declared the building unsafe for habitation a few years ago. Residents said and some of them had already been re-settled, but others remained, unable to find anywhere else to go.
Fedor Markov lives and works in a studio in one of the building’s upper floors. He is a sculptor of miniatures made from mammoth tusks, fragments of which are widely found across Yakutia, where the permafrost sometimes preserves Ice Age creatures almost entirely intact. Markov’s studio has large cracks in its walls and ceiling, including a gaping hole in its plaster, he said was caused by the building subsiding.
“The house is shaking,” said Markov.
In another neighborhood further out of the city, residents have had to abandon a group of older barracks buildings. One building has a huge crack running to the roof, splitting the structure almost in half.
Russia’s government has estimated the damage from the melting ground could cost tens of billions of dollars and there are increasing calls for action to mitigate the effects.
“Yakutia is already not like Yakutia,” Markov said. “In general, nature was excellent in my childhood. Summer was summer, winter was winter. Even though it was strong frosts, the people all the same could put up with it. Now we’re starting to get scared,” he said.
(LONDON) — Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II is back at work less than a week after an overnight hospital stay.
The 95-year-old monarch was seen smiling on Tuesday as she held a virtual audience at Windsor Castle to receive South Korea’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Gunn Kim.
The queen, wearing a yellow dress and a pearl necklace, spoke with the ambassador via video link from the royal residence in England’s Berkshire county, where she has been staying since her hospitalization.
Last week, Queen Elizabeth was forced to cancel a trip to Northern Ireland under orders from her medical team to rest.
She was hospitalized on the night of Oct. 20 for “preliminary investigations,” according to a spokesperson for Buckingham Palace.
By the following afternoon, the queen was back at her desk at Windsor Castle and undertaking light duties, the spokesperson said.
No further details about her condition were released by the palace.
The day before her hospitalization, Queen Elizabeth hosted a reception at Windsor Castle for a global investment summit where she met with leaders, including Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and U.S. climate envoy John Kerry.
She did not attend church on Sunday, so Tuesday’s appearance was the first public sighting of the queen since her hospitalization.
Queen Elizabeth is still scheduled to travel to Glasgow, Scotland, next week with other members of the British royal family for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference.
(CAIRO) — After initially being put under house arrest by military forces Monday, Sudan’s acting Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and his wife Muna Abdalla were “kidnapped” at dawn from their Khartoum residence, according to the prime minister’s office.
The move happened after the military forces arrested several top civilian officials, including cabinet ministers. Soon after, Sudan’s de facto leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan declared a state of emergency and dissolved the ruling transitional sovereign council and the government on Monday. It led to a backlash from the opposition and the United States.
Opposition figures said bridges and roads were blocked and that the internet was cut off in Khartoum. Videos posted on social media showed a large number of protesters taking to the streets, setting tires on fire and chanting against the apparent coup.
“What happened today in Khartoum is an attempt to erode the democratic gains of our December 2018 revolution,” Ismail El Taj, a leading member of the Sudanese Professionals Association, one of the main coalitions that rose up against the autocratic regime of Omar al-Bashir, told ABC News. “We will resist this coup with all peaceful means, such as peaceful marches, sit-ins and civil disobedience. The trembling hands that are trying to turn back the clock will not succeed.”
Both the U.S. embassy in Khartoum and the U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa issued statements condemning the military takeover.
On Saturday, U.S. special envoy for Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman met with Hamdok and coup leader Gen. Burhan together and “urged all actors to recommit to working together to implement the constitutional declaration and Juba Peace Agreement.” The agreement lays out the transition to democratic rule, according to the embassy.
“The US is deeply alarmed at reports of a military take-over of the transitional government,” Feltman said in a statement Monday. “This would contravene the Constitutional Declaration and the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people and is utterly unacceptable. As we have said repeatedly, any changes to the transitional government by force puts at risk U.S. assistance.”
Following Monday’s military takeover, the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum urged Americans to shelter in place in Monday and to avoid traveling to the embassy or international airports. It said armed forces were “blocking certain areas in and around Khartoum” and that internet in the capital is “non-functional.”
“There are unverified reports of violence against protesters. Flights are not leaving the country,” the embassy said in an alert.
The U.N. secretary-general called on the immediate release of the prime minister and all others who have been detained.
“The unlawful detention of the PM, government officials, and politicians is unacceptable and contravenes the constitutional document, and the partnership critical for the success of Sudan’s transition,” a spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement Monday.
Regardless of the objections by other parties and the international community, coup leader al-Burhan said in a live television statement Monday that he was keen on completing a transition to democracy, adding that “a government of independent competent figures will be formed to lead the country until the elections (in July 2023). The equitable representation of all the people of Sudan, its factions and groups shall be taken into account.”
Sudan’s information ministry said military forces had stormed state TV offices in Khartoum’s twin city of Omdurman on Monday.
The prime minister’s office condemned the military forces’ move, saying the military leaders of the Sudanese state “bear the criminal, legal and political consequences of the unilateral decisions they have taken.” In a statement, they describe it as “a complete coup against the gains of the revolution and our people, who sacrificed their blood in search of freedom, peace and justice.”
ABC News’ Conor Finnegan contributed to this report.
(VICTORIA, British Columbia) — Sixteen people have been evacuated from a container ship that caught fire off the coast of Canada, according to officials.
A fire broke out in 10 containers on the MV Zim Kingston near Victoria, British Columbia, on Saturday, according to the Canadian Coast Guard.
Crews mobilized to the location to rescue crew members and contain the fire. An emergency zone was set up for 2 nautical miles surrounding the ship, and rescue efforts continued into Sunday.
A navigational warning was issued overnight by the Canadian government reporting that the ship was on fire and expelling toxic gas. Two fallen containers are floating in the vicinity of the vessel.
Overnight, the tug Seaspan Raven cooled the hull of the MV Zim Kingston by spraying the hull with cold water. Due to the nature of chemicals on board the container ship, applying water directly to the fire is not an option.
Photos showed smoke billowing from a row of stacked containers that had collapsed.
There was no safety risk to people on land, according to the Canadian Coast Guard. No injuries were reported, according to a statement from Danaos Shipping Co, the company that manages the ship.
(NEW YORK) — Princess Mako, niece to Japan’s enthroned emperor, Naruhito, is planning to leave the imperial family, moving out of her family’s estate on Oct. 26 when her marriage to Fordham-educated Kei Komuro is officially registered.
Female members of Japan’s imperial family must renounce their royalty when marrying a commoner. After the high-profile scandal surrounding their courtship, Japanese royalty is being forced to consider not just its dwindling numbers but its future.
Komuro’s mother, involved in an unresolved financial dispute, has been portrayed as a gold digger in tabloids, which have harshly criticized the couple. Princess Mako, an imperial household spokesperson told ABC News, is now suffering from PTSD because of the scrutiny.
Some among the nation’s citizenry are questioning whether maintaining an emperor as a living symbol of the state is still necessary. In 2019, the aging but popular Emperor Akihito abdicated, citing his age and declining health. His son, Naruhito, assumed the throne to reserved fanfare.
The latest scandal surrounding the princess’ fiance has left a bad taste in the mouths of many. Naotaka Kimizuka, a professor at Kanto Gakuin University who specializes in modern British and European political diplomatic history, said the Princess Mako courtship kerfuffle will take a historic toll on the Chrysanthemum Throne, adding: “The pair have already disgraced the heritage of Japan’s imperial household.”
Although Princess Mako has pledged to make a clean break from royalty, refusing the taxpayer-funded, one-time entitlement of 150 million yen (about $1.35 million), distrust remains. Many citizens aren’t convinced they won’t still be on the hook, even after the princess and her husband move to New York.
“The taxpayers will be paying for this in one way or expected to another,” one Tokyo resident told ABC News. “If one is in the imperial family, they’ll always be in the imperial family.”
Japan’s royal family, believed to be the world’s oldest continuous hereditary monarchy, has seen its numbers dwindle. Currently, women can’t ascend to the throne, so royal women marry commoners due to a lack of viable imperial suitors. Children from those marriages are then excluded from the imperial family line.
Hirokazu Matsuno, a government spokesperson, said in response to the question of dwindling numbers among Japanese royals: “The marriage of Princess Mako is scheduled for the 26th of this month. We wish her happiness, and prosperity for the imperial family. An expert panel has been established to address the issue [of dwindling numbers] in the imperial family. Detailed discussions are ongoing.”
More than 80% of Japanese citizens, according to a Kyodo poll, said they’d readily accept either a male or female ascending to the throne, or even a male who descended just from a female member of the imperial family. Most conservatives, including Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, disagree. The question of female ascension is a common clash in Japan of liberal vs. conservative values.
Japan ranked 120th in a global gender-equality ranking of 156 countries, according to a 2021 World Economic Forum report. Attorney Kazuko Ito, secretary general of Human Rights Now, said she believes living human beings can never be a symbol.
“I think the treatment toward the royal family and system as a whole is inhuman,” she added. “Exclusion from the royal family might be a good thing for female family members since they will get freedom for the first time as a human being, not as a restricted virtual role model.”
Hideya Kawanishi, an associate professor of Japanese history at Nagoya University, believes that keeping together the imperial family helps keep together Japan.
“There is no doubt that the emperor of Japan is a symbol of Japan’s unity as a nation,” he said. “In fact, it can be said that the emperor is somehow holding together the fragmented Japanese society. I believe that the same phenomenon is occurring in the royal families of Europe, and that a monarchy is needed in the 21st century world and in Japan.”
(LONDON) — Flanked by public health officials, the U.K. Health Secretary painted a bleak picture of the current state of the pandemic in Britain.
“Cases are rising,” Sajid Javid, told the nation this week. “And they could go yet as high as 100,000 a day. We’re also seeing greater pressure on the NHS (National Health Service) across the U.K. We’re now approaching 1,000 hospitalizations per day.”
Yet, despite growing calls from doctors’ associations and scientists across the U.K. — Javid resisted calls to introduce mandated prevention measures, such as mask wearing, which were dropped in England in July.
On Friday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson doubled down on that message, stressing the way forward was for as many eligible people as possible to take booster jabs, a rollout that experts warned is lagging behind demand.
Since July, when virtually all social distancing restrictions were relaxed in England, cases and hospitalizations have steadily increased, though at a rate far lower than previous waves of infections when the population did not have access to vaccines.
This week, the U.K. posted a worrying set of figures.
On Tuesday, the government recorded 223 COVID deaths, the highest since March.
The last time the country recorded less than 20,000 daily cases was July — and this week the latest weekly average stands at over 47,000 daily cases. Deaths, hospitalizations and cases are increasing week over week.
Just under 80% of the population over age 12 have received two doses of coronavirus vaccine, but the evidence suggests that the effectiveness wanes over time, and the U.K. has been slower to vaccinate children than other countries. Rising cases have been linked to the resumption of the school year, where children are not formally required to wear masks and self-isolation rules around COVID-positive schoolchildren have been relaxed.
The booster program, which Israeli officials credit as proving crucial in Israel’s success in getting infections under control this summer, has not been as effective as the first wave of vaccinations, he said. An estimated 5 million people have taken their boosters, but around half of all people eligible are yet to take up the call for a third shot of vaccine, according to a report in the Financial Times.
“The vaccine program has really fallen flat,” according to Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist and the lead investigator of the ZOE Covid Symptom app, which tracks coronavirus infections in the U.K “It’s peaked at around 66%, 67% [across the total population] and is hardly moving. And we know now we didn’t know then that that’s not enough. And I think we’re very much back to where we were in March 2020, in some ways.”
U.K. government data still shows that the mortality and hospitalization rates among unvaccinated people are still far higher than the vaccinated.
According to reports in the British media, the government does have a ‘Plan B’ over the winter, which would include reintroducing working from home, mask mandates and potential vaccine passports in nightclubs. “It remains the case we would only look to use that if the pressure on the NHS was looking to become unsustainable,” the prime minister’s spokesperson said in a statement to ABC News this week.
This week, the British Medical Association, a doctors’ trade union, described the government’s approach as “willfully negligent,” while the NHS Confederation has called for new measures to avoid “stumbling into winter crisis.”
Yet Prime Minister Johnson has held out so far against mandating restrictions, and has instead placed greater emphasis on vaccine boosters and the procurement of antiviral drugs. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have different rules than England, with Scotland, for example, mandating mask use and vaccine passports for nightclubs — policies that are part of Johnson’s yet-to-be-implemented ‘Plan B.’ Health Secretary Javid, while acknowledging there was significant pressure on the National Health Service, said the level was not yet “unsustainable.”
Complacency due to the success of the early vaccine rollout, as well as poor public health messaging, has contributed to the recent rise in cases, according to Spector.
“There’s been a total absence of public education, no reiteration of [changes in] symptoms [with the delta variant], no ideas about how to stop spreading it in schools,” he said. “You know, there’s no prevention. There’s no concept of prevention.”
In mid-July, polling from the Office of National Statistics reported that 63% of adults always or often maintained social distancing, but the same body reported that only 39% of adults were doing so in mid-October.
In terms of infections, the U.K. is now far outpacing other countries in Western and Central Europe. In its weekly epidemiological update, the World Health Organization reported that Europe is the only region where coronavirus infections are rising, by 7% over the past seven days, driven by infection rates in the U.K., Russia and Turkey.
Despite the growing concern, the health service is not yet overwhelmed by an influx of coronavirus patients.
“No, we’re not there, we’re not there yet,” Spector said. “But the point is that everyone scientifically, medically, is seeing these curves going up and inevitably these things get worse as you hit winter, and you hit other respiratory infections.”
According to the government’s latest seven-day average, 937 patients per day were hospitalized with COVID, with just over 8,000 currently receiving treatment. In January, meanwhile, prior to the vaccine rollout, daily hospitalizations peaked at over 4,000, while the highest number of patients in hospital reached over 39,000.
Instead, doctors and scientists are warning that with infections rising, there is potential for COVID to add to the winter burdens of an already stretched health service that has faced pressures even in pre-pandemic times.
“This time it genuinely does feel different,” Siva Anandaciva, the chief analyst at the King’s Fund, an independent health think tank, told ABC News. “I think that’s because there are a lot of familiar pressures that you always have … you’ve got the steady ticking up of winter viruses.”
Part of the pressure, he said, is the resumption of ordinary care for the massive backlog of patients waiting to be seen in hospitals, that has built up since the pandemic began. 5.7 million people in the U.K., almost 10% of the population, are on waiting lists for planned routine care, and in a worst case scenario this number could rise up to 14 million, Anandaciva said.
“COVID’s almost like an accelerant on a fire,” he said. “The NHS has always struggled over the winter, and these are pressures that are spread more wildly… It is a problem with COVID, but more fundamentally some of the demand for care coming back after a pause in services and also crucially some of the resourcing issues that have long plagued the NHS. Not having enough staff, not having enough resources.”
Facing pressure this winter, the government has announced new funding for the NHS, but it could be years before the health service begins to function at pre-pandemic levels, according to Anandaciva.
Spector was once critical of the government’s approach for “underreacting, then overreacting” to the pandemic with successive lockdowns, but now says he now doesn’t understand some of the inaction.
“It’s complacency to think that this, you know, this isn’t going to get worse,” he said. “I haven’t heard of anyone who says it’s going to get better next week. So that’s why I can’t understand why introducing some simple measures that don’t cost the economy anything, only have a political cost can’t be implemented.”
