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(NEW YORK) — Minnesota Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips said Sunday he was undecided on whether he’d challenge President Joe Biden for their party’s nomination, though he defended his push for others to do so in an appearance on CBS’ Face the Nation.
“I have not decided yet,” Phillips said of a potential 2024 bid, which would likely mark an uphill battle given Phillips’ relative lack of recognition on the national stage and Biden’s institutional support among Democrats.
Phillips said on CBS that he is calling for a rigorous primary contest in 2024 because he argues it’s what Democrats want, citing last week’s New York Times/Siena College poll that found more Democrats (50%) felt the party should nominate someone other than Biden compared to those who backed the president (45%).
“Democrats are telling me that they want — not a coronation, but they want a competition,” Phillips said.
“If we don’t heed that call, shame on us,” Phillips added. “The consequences, I believe, are going to be disastrous. So my call is to those who are well-positioned, well-prepared, of good character and competency — they know who they are — to jump in because Democrats in the country need competition. It makes everything better.”
Phillips, when pressed on whether he’d challenge Biden himself, as he has been reported to be pushed to do, said he was not currently “well-positioned” to run.
“People who are should jump in because we need to meet the moment,” he said.
The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Ronald Klain, Biden’s former White House chief of staff, defended the president on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter.
“It’s not a coronation, it’s a coalition of Democrats coming together to reflect @JoeBiden to #FinishTheJob on the economy, climate change, equity, abortion rights, and more,” Klain wrote.
Phillips has said before that he wasn’t inclined to support Biden’s nomination for president in 2024.
Phillips did heap praise on the president on Sunday and maintained that his push for challengers is not about Biden, specifically.
“I love the man. He is competent, he is honorable, his integrity, I believe, is unvarnished. He has led this country through extraordinarily difficult times,” Phillips said.
“This is not about him,” he added. “This is about listening to people.”
Biden, who is the oldest person ever elected president and would be 86 at the end of a second term, acknowledged on the day he announced his bid for reelection that he considered his age when deciding to run again.
“They’re going to see a race and they’re going to judge whether or not I have it or don’t have it,” he said in April, referring to the public. “I respect them taking a hard look at it.”
At the time, he said, “I took a hard look at it before I decided to run, and I feel good. I feel excited about the prospects, and I think we’re on the verge of really turning the corner in a way we haven’t in a long time.”
Biden currently faces long shot primary challenges from speaker and author Marianne Williamson and activist and attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Though Phillips said Sunday that wants a strong challenger to Biden, he said he is opposed to third-party candidates who could possibly serve as a spoiler by attracting Democratic-leaning votes in a general election against former President Donald Trump.
Phillips also weighed in on Vice President Kamala Harris as a future White House contender.
“I think she’s absolutely qualified. In fact, I think she’s misportrayed,” he said, later adding that “the job of the vice president is not an easy one.”
But he said he does not see her as an heir apparent if Biden were no longer leading the Democratic ticket.
“We have 12 [notable] Republicans as options for Republican primary voters,” Phillips said. “Right now, we only have three on the Democratic side. I believe in competition. We’re the Democratic Party. Democracy means the freedom to make choices, and we don’t have many of them.”
(WASHINGTON) — Former Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday he doesn’t intend to testify in former President Donald Trump’s trial over Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results — but Pence didn’t close the door on such a possibility.
“I have no plans to testify. But, look, we’ll always comply with the law,” Pence said on CNN’s “State of the Union,” in a pre-taped appearance from New Hampshire.
He referenced having previously testified before the federal grand jury investigating Jan. 6, suggesting he would testify again if he was compelled.
“I testified before the grand jury under a subpoena after we got clarification from the court about protections that I have under the Constitution as the president of the Senate,” he said.
Pence, now running against Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, has emerged as a potential key witness at Trump’s future trial after Trump was indicted last week on four charges over his efforts to reverse his 2020 loss and remain in power.
Trump is accused of conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding and conspiracy against rights.
After pleading not guilty at his arraignment on Thursday, he claimed to reporters that “this is a persecution of a political opponent” by the federal government, which prosecutors deny.
Special counsel Jack Smith’s indictment alleges, as part of Trump’s charges, a concerted pressure campaign to have Pence reject the Electoral College results on Jan. 6, 2021, and send the results back to state legislatures — something Pence has repeatedly pointed out he had no right to do.
“Frankly, the day before Jan. 6, if memory serves, they came back, [Trump’s] lawyers did, and said, ‘We want you to reject votes outright.’ They were asking me to overturn the election. I had no right to overturn the election,” Pence said Sunday.
He laid most of the blame at the feet of Trump’s attorneys and said that he does not know Trump’s true intentions.
Trump lawyer John Lauro argued on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday that “the government will never be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump had corrupt or criminal intent.”
Pence said on CNN: “I don’t know what was in his heart. I don’t know what his intentions were, but I do know what he and his lawyers asked me to do.”
In a pre-taped interview on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that also aired on Sunday, Pence again declined to comment on Trump’s state of mind.
“It seemed to me through all that period of time, the president was intent, as we all were, in getting to the bottom of voting irregularities that had taken place,” he said. (No court or election official has confirmed voting fraud or misconduct in any substantial amount during the 2020 race.)
However, Pence did say that Trump was being falsely advised that Pence had an ability to reject some votes after the election was over.
“From some time in the middle of December [2020], the president began to be told I had some authority to reject or return votes back to the states. I had no such authority. I stand by the facts as they occurred,” he said on CBS. “I mean, it ebbed and flowed between different legal theories, but at the end of the day we did our duty and kept our oath.”
As he did on CNN, Pence indicated on CBS that he wouldn’t fight being called as a witness at Trump’s trial. “We’ll obey the law and respond to the call of the law if it comes, and we’ll just tell the truth,” he said.
On both CNN and CBS, Pence would not rule out voting for Trump in 2024 but said, “I don’t think I’ll have to.”
(WASHINGTON) — House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar on Sunday pushed back on arguments by Donald Trump’s attorney that he wasn’t acting with illegal intent in pushing to overturn the 2020 election.
“Everybody saw exactly what the former president was doing. We saw the attack on the Capitol, the attack on the police officers and the insurrection,” Aguilar, the third-ranked Democrat in the House and a former member of the House committee that investigated Jan. 6, said on ABC’s “This Week.”
“And so for his lawyers or for him to somehow say that this was just a mistake and bad legal advice is pretty sad at this point,” Aguilar said.
Last week, Trump was indicted for the third time. He has pleaded not guilty and claimed after his arraignment that “this is a persecution of a political opponent,” which prosecutors dispute.
On “This Week,” Aguilar told anchor George Stephanopoulos that he was “confident” the Department of Justice and special counsel Jack Smith will prove Trump’s corrupt intent.
In an earlier appearance on “This Week,” Trump’s attorney John Lauro argued otherwise: “The government will never be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump had corrupt or criminal intent.”
“The defense has no obligation to prove anything,” Lauro said. “We put the government to its test.”
Aguilar challenged that, citing both the new charges and his own work on the House’s Jan. 6 committee, which paralleled the federal investigation.
“Jack Smith, in his indictment, said that the former president deliberately disregarded the truth. That was his quote. And our Jan. 6 committee report showed, time and time again, that President Trump was told he lost the election by his campaign lawyers, by his advisers,” Aguilar said.
He went on to weigh in on the possible role of former Vice President Mike Pence.
Pence, a current GOP presidential candidate, has emerged as a key figure in the indictment against Trump given that Trump pushed him to stop the certification of their election defeat in his ceremonial role presiding over Congress on Jan. 6, 2021.
“It’s clear that Vice President Pence took notes and has a pretty good memory of what the president told them and the pressure that he was under,” said Aguilar, who chaired a House Jan. 6 committee hearing last year on the campaign to have Pence block the election results.
“When the former president still didn’t get his way, he tweeted out that Mike Pence has the ability to change this. And that’s just unfortunate,” Aguilar said.
He called on Trump and his lawyers to “indicate that they want a speedy trial. That’s, I think, where we can get to the root of this. If they want to have their day in court, they should remove any hurdles and they should seek the truth and seek their day in court.”
At Trump’s arraignment, Lauro indicated they will need significant time to prepare. The judge has asked both sides to propose dates.
Of the Trump team’s arguments that he was relying on his lawyers and participating in fair constitutional debate, Aguilar cited the number of times that Trump’s legal challenges to the election failed in court before Jan. 6.
“I think it’s just the height of hypocrisy for them to bring those arguments out now. … It seems pretty clear to the American public that they are throwing everything they can at the wall, and they are trying to see what sticks,” he said.
“The bottom line is for us to have accountability,” Aguilar said. “We need to ensure that there aren’t two sets of legal systems, one for the rich and powerful and one for everyone else.”
Stephanopoulos noted that that is “the same argument, in reverse, being made by the House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.”
At a news conference on Thursday, McCarthy suggested Trump’s mounting charges are politically motivated.
On “This Week,” Aguilar recalled McCarthy’s comments on the House floor in January 2021: “This is a guy who stood in the well of the Capitol building and said that Donald Trump bears responsibility.”
(WASHINGTON) — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, largely refused on Sunday to weigh in on GOP front-runner Donald Trump’s Jan. 6 indictment.
But he acknowledged in an appearance on ABC’s “This Week” that “I believe that Joe Biden won the election,” marking the first time on the trail he has said that.
Following that declaration, Burgum told “This Week” anchor George Stephanopoulos: “I believe that we have to move on to the future.”
Stephanopoulos had been pressing Burgum for his view on Trump’s alleged conduct in challenging the 2020 results: “It’s not simply a legal question, sir. It’s a moral question. It’s an ethical question. It’s a question about civics.”
Early in Burgum’s appearance, Stephanopoulos said, “I know you want to talk about your campaign and the future, but the fact is that Donald Trump is the front-runner right now. He’s facing three felony indictments. Have you read the indictments, and what’s your reaction to them?”
The governor avoided commenting on if he had read Trump’s three felony indictments — all of which Trump denies — and his opinion on if Trump was wrong in pressuring then-Vice President Mike Pence not to certify the election results on Jan. 6, 2021.
“Everybody’s innocent until proven guilty,” Burgum said, adding, “We should be talking about the energy, economy and national security.”
He also said he thinks “there were irregularities in terms of how the election went” in 2020, though no election officials our courts have confirmed any fraud large enough to change any of the results.
Burgum argued that voters in the first two primary states are not interested in discussing Trump’s mounting charges, and if they are they can simply consume any of the constant news coverage about it.
What the public cares about, according to Burgum, are some of the same issues he has focused on as a presidential candidate, including inflation, border security, the United States’ relationship with China and the opioid overdose epidemic.
“There’s an entire industry built around commenting on President Trump, and I’ll just leave it to the pundits,” he said. “I mean, we’re in a position today where when we’re out talking to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, they’re not asking about the indictments.”
Burgum, a former business executive in his second term as governor, launched his White House bid in June. According to FiveThirtyEight, he currently polls in the bottom tier of GOP hopefuls.
On the trail, Burgum rarely utters Trump’s name, if at all.
“We have an opportunity to improve every American life. We’ve got to be looking to the future. Not to the past. Presidential campaign should be about the future, not about the past, and that’s what we’re bringing that voice to this to this campaign,” Burgum said on “This Week.”
He said that everyday Republican voters are suspicious of why Trump is being charged and if, elected, he would seek to restore institutional credibility. “The folks in Washington have to understand that if they’re surprised why Trump is leading the polls, it is basically people pushing back and saying, ‘Hey, we don’t trust the system,'” Burgum said.
Stephanopoulos interjected, again asking Burgum for his personal view: “Do you have an opinion on the fact that the President Trump tried to overturn the election as alleged in the indictment this week by special prosecutor Smith?”
He continued to distance himself from the topic.
“I’m not a lawyer. I’m an entrepreneur. I’m someone who leads and operates businesses. I care about the people of this country — and you’re asking me basically a legal question. We’re focused on the future,” Burgum replied.
Later in the interview, Stephanopoulos followed up: “You’re not answering my questions about the front-runner who you need to defeat in order to become the presidential candidate for the Republican Party. … Do you believe that President Trump has disqualified himself?”
“Most of America doesn’t know who Doug Burgum is. It’s the job of a campaign to try to explain to people,” he said. “When I was in business and we were a startup …. We didn’t start by saying, ‘Oh, we think the guys that are in the lead have got all these problems.’ We talked about what we could do for the customer, what we could do for our partners, what we could do to improve their lives and their businesses.”
He went on to say: “Every question we get is about the past and not the future. I’m running for the future of America. And we’re going to keep talking about that at every stop.”
(WASHINGTON) — Former President Donald Trump’s attorney on Sunday welcomed former Vice President Mike Pence potentially testifying at Trump’s future trial related to his push to overturn the 2020 election — but Trump’s lawyer wouldn’t discuss if Trump will do the same.
John Lauro argued on ABC’s “This Week” that Pence, who is a key figure in Trump’s unprecedented third indictment, could actually be beneficial to Trump — despite Pence rebuking Trump for urging him to stop the certification of their defeat on Jan. 6, 2021, when Congress convened at the Capitol and Pence presided in a ceremonial role.
Lauro maintained that Pence, if called to testify, would agree that Trump wasn’t acting with criminal intent in seeking to stay in power and reverse his loss.
“Mike Pence will be one of our best witnesses at trial. … I cannot wait until I have the opportunity to cross-examine Mr. Pence,” Lauro told “This Week” anchor George Stephanopoulos.
“Based on what Vice President Pence will say, the government will never be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump had corrupt or criminal intent. And that’s what this case is about,” Lauro contended.
Trump denies breaking any laws and has pleaded not guilty to the four charges in his third indictment: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding and conspiracy against rights.
“This is a persecution of a political opponent,” he claimed after his arraignment in Washington on Thursday.
Pressed by Stephanopoulos on Sunday if Trump would be willing to go under oath to challenge Pence’s version of events, Lauro responded, “That’s impossible to say right now. What we have to see is what the Biden administration is going to put on evidence.”
Throughout Lauro’s sometimes contentious interview with Stephanopoulos, he repeatedly insisted that federal prosecutors will struggle to prove Trump acted corruptly because Trump was not convinced the 2020 election was legitimately conducted — a view rejected by the courts and election officials — and that he was seeking legal advice on the best way to challenge the results.
“People disagree all the time about constitutional points, but nobody gets indicted,” Lauro said.
Special counsel Jack Smith anticipated such defenses in his 45-page indictment, legal experts previously told ABC News as they weighed in on the case.
“The majority of the indictment is trying to establish Trump’s knowledge that he lost the election and his intent to overturn the election results,” said Neama Rahmani, a former federal prosecutor and president of West Coast Trial Lawyers.
On “This Week,” Stephanopoulos pointed to Pence’s own statements and how they contradicted his former boss: “What Mike Pence has said all this week is that what President Trump did was wrong and he knew it was wrong and he was pressing him to do something that was wrong.”
Pence has also said that Trump once criticized him as “too honest” for his position that he had no legal authority to reject the 2020 Electoral College results in his ceremonial role on Jan. 6. Trump, on social media, claimed on Saturday that he never said that.
Asked by Stephanopoulos what will happen if Pence can substantiate that exchange, Lauro sought to play it down.
“The issue was described in Mr. Pence’s book [his 2022 memoir] with respect to some of the legislation that was going on. And Mr. Pence said that he recalls Mr. Trump saying that Mr. Pence’s position on a particular piece of litigation that was going on was hyper technical and hyper legal. That’s a side issue,” Lauro said. “No one is going to be concerned about that.”
However, Pence could end up being a key witness against Trump, given his firsthand knowledge of Trump’s efforts to stay in office.
He previously spoke with a federal grand jury, under subpoena, and said on Sunday on CNN: “I have no plans to testify. But, look, we’ll always comply with the law.”
Lauro, on “This Week,” said that while Pence disagreed with Trump, “He never said it was criminal … You may think that somebody is acting inappropriately under constitutional principles. But Mr. Pence, who is a lawyer, never said to Mr. Trump, ‘I think what you’re doing is criminal,’ That’s very important.”
The back-and-forth goes to the heart of the Trump legal team’s argument, that the then-president always believed the 2020 election was stolen and had a First Amendment right to say so while, as Lauro put it, “petition[ing] his government” to intervene in on his behalf.
Smith appeared to offer a prebuttal to that argument, using the term “knowingly” in the indictment 30 times, underscoring that Trump had been told his claims of fraud were baseless before repeatedly urging allies to try to reverse the 2020 results.
Lauro’s response on “This Week” was: Prove it.
“The defense has no obligation to prove anything. We put the government to its test. The government must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump had criminal intent,” he said.
“This is a criminal case where they have to prove not whether or not he won [in 2020],” Lauro said, “but whether or not he was acting corruptly, whether or not he was acting with a consciousness of guilt, with criminal intent.”
ABC News’ Alexandra Hutzler contributed to this report.
(DE MOINES, Iowa) — Sen. Tim Scott’s supporters are bankrolling an eight-figure advertising blitz in key early voting states in an effort to build on his recent polling momentum in the early voting states.
Upon entering the race in May, Scott committed to a $6 million ad buy in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote in the Republican primary next year. Soon after, the Trust in the Mission super PAC supporting Scott announced its own $7.25 million ad buy. But now, the PAC is upping the ante with an announcement that beginning in September, it’s planning a $40 million ad campaign that will run in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and potentially Nevada — a push that aims to capitalize on shifting polling in the early states, including indications that he is currently only a few points behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to surveys collected by FiveThirtyEight.
Scott already entered the race with a huge financial advantage, boasting $22 million cash on hand, most of which came from his previous Senate campaign war chest.
But now he aims to rake in more cash to keep the momentum going, ramping up fundraising efforts across six states in the next month. He spent one recent weekend fundraising in Aspen, Colorado, making a stop at a Lincoln Day fundraising event for the Republicans of Pitkin County on July 22, according to a source familiar with the event. The event asked guests to pay $750 to $4,675 per seat, with just over 100 people in attendance — and it was held on the heels of a Republican Governors Association meeting that kicked off on July 23 and drew many potential donors.
Scott headed to California, which will be followed by a stop in Maine and then on to the Hamptons after the Lincoln Day Dinner event in Iowa. In the Golden State, he spoke at a fundraising event hosted by the Republican Party of Orange County and the California Women’s Leadership Association where tickets ranged from $250 to $7,500.
The timing of the ad buy suggests the decision by the super PAC — which can support but not directly coordinate with Scott — has been in the works for weeks rather than being a response to any one campaign.
“This has been a systematic campaign strategy that his collective teams have been running simultaneously. I don’t think you see this as a reaction to DeSantis, as much as it is recognizing the fact that a significant play had to be made to build name I.D.,” David Wilson, a South Carolina conservative strategist, told ABC News.
Scott may not need help with name recognition in his home state, but he will need it in Iowa and New Hampshire, states that are “vitally important in building a national presence for any candidate who’s looking to move into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,” Wilson said.
As the only candidate currently serving in Congress, Scott has only campaigned in New Hampshire a handful of times so far, but Jeff Grappone, a Republican strategist who has advised presidential campaigns in the state, said the super PAC’s huge ad blitz makes it clear that he wants to be a player in the Granite State.
“New Hampshire is a place where people expect candidates to show up in diners and town halls, but it also includes a robust paid media effort. New Hampshire shares a market with Boston, so it takes a significant investment to break through,” said Grappone.
A source familiar with the thinking behind the Scott PAC’s spending told ABC News that “it’s going to get incredibly costly for outside groups to spend in broadcast media markets in those early states come the fall when everyone’s trying to advertise. Therefore, locking the best inventory at the lowest rates is a significant advantage.”
Other White House hopefuls have taken notice of his recent moves — including DeSantis, whose candidacy could be threatened by a potential national Scott surge.
In a memo circulated by his campaign earlier this month and obtained by ABC News, DeSantis’ team noted that Scott “has earned a serious look at this stage” even while arguing the senator “is lacking the fight that our electorate is looking for.”
When asked by ABC News’ Will McDuffie whether he’s worried about Scott at a campaign stop at an Iowa Dairy Queen, DeSantis responded, “I’m not worried about anything, man. We’ve got a plan.”
DeSantis and his super PAC reported spending nearly $16 million in the first half of the year on media in FEC filings.
Scott attempts to pitch himself to voters by leaning on his personal story — that of a poor Black kid being raised by a single mother and a grandfather who grew up picking cotton — recounting he was able to get a seat in the Senate through hard work and determination. As Scott puts it, his family went “from cotton to Congress.”
For voters like Penny Overbaugh from Bettendorf, Iowa, Scott’s positive message resonates: “I love his straight talk. He doesn’t give me all this political jargon. I agree with his answers.”
But many Americans haven’t even begun to tune in to the primary process, with the earliest primary voters not set to head to the polls for another five months. The voters in these early states could be the first indicator of campaigns’ viability ahead of the first GOP primary debate, scheduled for Aug. 23.
“We’re finally coming out of the summer leading into the fall when people are going to start paying attention, because I personally would rather pay attention to the beach than pay attention to politics at the moment,” said Wilson.
ABC News’ Hannah Demisse and Will McDuffie contributed to this report.
Tom Brenner for The Washington Post via Getty Images
(WASHINGTON) — Special counsel Jack Smith alerted the court to a social media post by former President Donald Trump in a filing that asks for a protective order so prosecutors can begin providing discovery to Trump’s legal team in the Jan. 6 case.
Trump on Friday afternoon had posted a message to his social media platform, Truth Social, saying, “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!”
The message was posted hours after Trump swore in court that he would not attempt to intimidate witnesses.
“All the proposed order seeks to prevent is the improper dissemination or use of discovery materials, including to the public. Such a restriction is particularly important in this case because the defendant has previously issued public statements on social media regarding witnesses, judges, attorneys, and others associated with legal matters pending against him. And in recent days, regarding this case, the defendant has issued multiple posts—either specifically or by implication—including the following, which the defendant posted just hours ago,” the filing states before pasting a screen grab of Trump’s post.
“If the defendant were to begin issuing public posts using details—or, for example, grand jury transcripts—obtained in discovery here, it could have a harmful chilling effect on witnesses or adversely affect the fair administration of justice in this case,” the filing states.
The contents of the post cited in the prosecution’s filing were “the definition of political speech” and were aimed at political interest groups, the Trump campaign said in a statement late Friday after the filing.
“The Truth post cited is the definition of political speech, and was in response to the RINO, China-loving, dishonest special interest groups and Super PACs, like the ones funded by the Koch brothers and the Club for No Growth,” a Trump spokesperson said in a statement.
Trump was indicted Tuesday on four felony counts: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights.
Prosecutors allege he undertook a “criminal scheme” to overturn the results of the 2020 election, including repeatedly pushing lies about the results despite knowing his claims were false, and doubling down on those falsehoods as the Jan. 6 riot raged.
Trump pleaded not guilty Thursday to all counts after being charged in connection with his alleged attempts to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election.
(WASHINGTON) — Looking ahead to 2024, Democrats concede some cause for concern — including President Joe Biden’s anemic approval rating and early polls forecasting a repeat race against former President Donald Trump in which Biden either ties or trails, due in part to a notable chunk of undecided voters and apprehension over Biden’s age and acuity, which he has repeatedly dismissed.
But Democrats also say that based on 2023 so far, they see plenty of reason for optimism about their chances with voters.
An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean — or the relative liberal or conservative history — of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too.
For instance, the Democratic candidate in a Wisconsin State Assembly special election last month lost by just 7 points in an area where Republicans have a 22-point edge and where Trump beat Biden by almost 17 points in 2020.
In a New Hampshire special election in May for a state House seat, the Democrat won by 43 points, far beyond the party’s estimated 23-point edge in the district.
The data from FiveThirtyEight does not include regularly scheduled off-year elections, including the Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year in which the liberal candidate, now-Justice Janet Protasiewicz, won by 11 points — in a state famous for its wafer-thin election margins.
“I think when you when you look at things like this, one special election doesn’t mean much on its own. But when you start to see real consistency, it can certainly become predictive of the next election cycle,” said Ben Nuckels, a Wisconsin Democratic strategist who consulted on Protasiewicz’s campaign.
For comparison, according to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats outperformed the weighted partisan lean by about 4% in special elections held between the 2018 midterms and the 2020 elections, when Biden won the White House by 4.5% but Democrats underperformed in House races.
Conversations with eight Democratic and Republican operatives in swing states show some repeated explanations for this success: the public’s general support for abortion access after the Supreme Court reversed the national guarantee for the procedure last year along with angst and anger over Trump’s comeback bid, given how divisive he remains — two factors which might even overcompensate for Biden’s sagging approval ratings.
“Republicans have not had a good election night since before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. And, honestly, it seems like post-Roe Republicans couldn’t find their groove even if a DJ played their favorite song on repeat,” Nuckels said. “So I think Democrats are in a very good position here going forward.”
Special and off-year elections are not perfect predictors of major election cycles. Now-Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, earned a surprise victory in 2021 — before Democrats’ surprisingly strong performance in the 2022 midterms.
However, similar elections held in 2017 and 2019 did precede Democratic successes in 2018 and 2020.
“I think what we’re seeing is that the Dobbs decision has fundamentally rewired our politics, and almost every other measure than actual votes cast has yet to figure out how to bake that in. And so, whether you’re talking about traditional approval ratings, whether you’re talking about polling, the ground has shifted,” said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki.
“Almost all of these elections keep ending up different than what you would have expected — in the same direction. And so, that, to me, suggests that there’s some stickiness to this,” he added. “And the only thing that might change it is clarity on this issue, something like a federal codification of [abortion rights]. And you and I both know we’re not going to see that between now and next November.”
Republican operatives also sounded some alarm, telling ABC News the trend cannot be ignored.
“If you’re looking at this plus-22 [pro-GOP] seat and you want to know why this guy won by a lot smaller percentage than what you would have thought … it’s because this issue is still there. Republicans still have to figure out how to address the abortion issue,” said Wisconsin GOP strategist Brandon Scholz.
“I think you have to be very concerned.”
Other Republicans pointed to the current lack of party unity over Trump — amid the 2024 primary — to help explain the special election results.
“You could probably make a connection a little bit to the presidential race, that there’s a lot of candidates in right now. There’s the Trump folks and folks that are backing somebody else, and the party’s not united nationally around one candidate right now, or at least not completely. Sometimes that affects turnout and funding and stuff like that,” said GOP consultant Josh Novotney, who is based in Pennsylvania, where Democrats flipped the state House in special elections earlier this year.
Other conservatives cautioned against taking too much away from how the 2023 results could predict who wins next year.
Special elections are notorious for funky turnouts, sometimes relying on only the most motivated groups and with other voters at times even unaware they’re happening at all, especially in an odd-numbered year. On top of that, less money is often spent on special elections rather than regularly scheduled races, impacting the outreach campaigns can do to win over voters.
“I am someone who, over the years, has always cautioned about reading too much into specials, regardless of whether they help your cause or hurt your cause,” said veteran Pennsylvania GOP strategist Chris Nicholas.
However, whether or not this year’s special elections are forecasts of next year’s results, strategists on both sides of the aisle expected the Democratic drumbeat over abortion and Trump to continue.
“They thought it could juice their turnout, and they were they were successful in that regard. And they weren’t subtle about it at all. They’re just like, ‘We know this is a hot-button issue for us, and we’re gonna keep milking it till it runs dry.’ I think you’ll see that a lot in the fall and next year as well,” Nicholas said, referencing one special election in Pennsylvania earlier this year.
Democrats who spoke to ABC News were torn over whether the trend is strong enough to last until November 2024, with some pumping the brakes and others appearing more bullish.
“I think it’s less of a tea leaf and maybe an inspiration, that if Democrats are able to control the narrative in these races, where they’re able to talk to voters about the stakes around abortion and then also contrast the Republicans’ focus on the culture war with the real kitchen table issues that a lot of these Democratic candidates are also focusing on — that there’s a path to be able to both motivate more Democrats to turn out and win the swing voters,” said Pennsylvania Democratic strategist J.J. Abbott.
Zepecki, another Democrat, said that “the rules have been rewritten, we don’t know what they are.”
“We’re using old benchmarks to try to forecast going forward. And I think what we need to look at is less of the noise and more of signal,” he said. “Right now, the noise is [what] you see on cable news, and it’s people tweeting all day. The signal, what we should be looking for, are election results. That’s what ultimately is telling the story.”
Outside of 2023’s special elections, Democrats still face a range of high-profile regular races this year that are expected to be competitive — including for Virginia’s entire state Legislature and governorships in Kentucky and Louisiana.
Susan Stancill, the chair of the Democratic Party in Washington County, Va., said she has “a lot” of confidence after this year’s special election results, including in rural counties like hers where Democrats aren’t winning but are cutting down Republicans’ margins.
“We have five constitutional and party candidates on our ballot, and then an additional four school board candidates, and I’m optimistic we’re gonna run the table,” she said. “And you might tell me I’m crazy. But ask me in November.”
(WASHINGTON) — Police, scores of protesters and supporters of Donald Trump were all part of the scene outside the federal courthouse in Washington, D.C., where the former president was arraigned Thursday afternoon.
More than 100 protesters and supporters gathered outside the courthouse before Trump’s 4 p.m. arraignment. They were joined by a large police presence patrolling the area.
A handful of Trump supporters carried large campaign flags that said, “Trump for President ’24” and “Finish The Wall.” Another held a sign that said, “Trump won.”
At one point, a fake presidential limousine drove near the courthouse with a passenger inside wearing a Trump mask. Around the time of Trump’s arrival, a man dressed as a Revolutionary soldier sang the National Anthem on a microphone; Trump supporters joined him in singing.
Anti-Trump protesters showed up as well — one of whom wore a black-and-white striped jail uniform; another protester screamed expletives from a megaphone.
Some of the protesters and supporters got into a few arguments, and dispersed after a while. There were no known physical altercations.
Meanwhile, curious tourists passed by, taking photos and videos of the media and protesters.
For such a historic and controversial event, the atmosphere through the morning was calm and the numbers relatively few.
There were no reported threats — but several large dump trucks were parked nearby protectively.
Hip-high metal barriers with yellow tape warning “US Marshal Do Not Cross” ringed the courthouse, keeping the news media and the public back from the building’s entrances. There were dozens of media tents and hundreds of journalists covering the developments of the arraignment.
Metropolitan Police Department officers patrolled the area on foot and on bikes, and stationed themselves at major intersections. Police walked the perimeter of the courthouse, some with dogs searching the surrounding bushes.
Department of Homeland Security officials handed out emergency number cards to contracted security guards to report anything suspicious.
The courthouse was quiet inside ahead of Trump’s arrival, with most reporters stationed in media rooms while police roamed around. However, as the arraignment neared, the action picked up with the court clearing the lobby and the halls of the courthouse, ushering reporters roaming around into the designated media rooms and the courtroom where the arraignment happened. Court security guards blocked the staircase that went to the second floor where the arraignment occurred.
Trump pleaded not guilty to all counts — four charges related to his push to overturn the 2020 election results before and during Jan. 6.
The courthouse is located a few blocks away from the U.S. Capitol where the Jan. 6 attack took place.
ABC News’ Aaron Katersky and Sam Sweeney contributed to this report.
(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — Former President Donald Trump has been charged in connection with his alleged attempts to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election.
A 45-page federal indictment, unsealed Tuesday, accuses Trump of four felony counts: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights. The former president, who is currently the Republican front-runner in the 2024 race, has been summoned to appear in court in Washington, D.C. on Thursday.
It’s the third time that Trump has been indicted on criminal charges. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges in the two other cases, decrying the investigations as political witch hunts. He continues to insist that the 2020 vote was rigged and, speaking to ABC News on Tuesday, described the latest charges as a “pile-on” and “election interference.”
Here’s how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Aug 03, 5:07 PM EDT
Trump: ‘This is a very sad day for America’
Former President Donald Trump spoke briefly at Reagan National Airport after leaving the D.C. District Court.
“This is a very sad day for America,” he said before boarding his plane.
“This is a persecution of a political opponent,” he added.
Aug 03, 4:49 PM EDT
Special prosecutor asks for a speedy trial while Trump legal team objects
Special prosecutor Tom Windom approached the bench and requested a speedy trial.
“This case will benefit from normal order including a speedy trial,” Windom said.
But the defense said it needs ample opportunity to review a massive amount of evidence to be entered by the government.
The judge responded to Windom by saying the court would ensure a “fair trial” without elaborating.
-ABC News’ Soorin Kim
Aug 03, 4:45 PM EDT
Trump has left the courtroom
The arraignment hearing has ended. Former President Donald Trump and his team have left the courtroom.
-ABC News’ Mike Levine
Aug 03, 4:40 PM EDT
Hearing set for Aug. 28
A hearing before Judge Tanya Chutkan, the judge assigned to preside over the trial, is scheduled for Aug. 28 at 10 a.m., the latest of three dates offered as options.
Prosecutors wanted the hearing to be earlier.
This hearing is just five days after the first GOP primary debate.
-ABC News’ Mike Levine
Aug 03, 4:33 PM EDT
Prosecution, defense agree to conditions of Trump’s release
The prosecution and defense have agreed to conditions of former President Donald Trump’s release: He must not violate federal or state laws; he must appear in court as required; he must sign an appearance bond; and he must not communicate about the facts of the case with anyone Trump knows to be a witness, except through counsel or in presence of counsel.
Trump signed a form with those conditions of release.
Aug 03, 4:27 PM EDT
Trump pleads not guilty
Former President Donald Trump pleaded not guilty to all counts.
The judge advised Trump of the penalties he could face if convicted: up to five years in prison on count 1; up to 20 years in prison on count 2; up to 20 years in prison on count 3 and up to 10 years in prison on count 4.
Trump was leaning forward in his chair, listening intently.
The judge also read Trump his rights in connection to this case, and he said he understands them.
Aug 03, 4:24 PM EDT
Charges read in court
At the judge’s request, former President Donald Trump offered his full name, saying, “Yes, your honor, Donald J. Trump, John.”
Trump also gave his age, saying “Seven seven.”
The judge then read Trump the charges against him.
-ABC News’ Mike Levine
Aug 03, 4:16 PM EDT
Magistrate judge enters courtroom
U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya has entered the courtroom for former President Donald Trump’s arraignment.
-ABC News’ Mike Levine
Aug 03, 4:10 PM EDT
Trump stares toward Smith
Former President Donald Trump knocked his clasped hands on the table and stared toward special counsel Jack Smith as he waited for U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya to enter the courtroom.
-ABC News’ Mike Levine
Aug 03, 4:05 PM EDT
Trump has been processed
Former President Donald Trump has been processed, meaning his fingerprints were taken and he gave over personal information, according to a source familiar with the situation.
Trump will not be placed in handcuffs or have a mugshot taken.
-ABC News’ Luke Barr
Aug 03, 3:55 PM EDT
Trump enters courtroom
Former President Donald Trump and his legal team have entered the courtroom with many U.S. Marshals standing nearby.
It has been 51 days since June 13, when Trump was last in a courtroom for his arraignment in Florida in the classified documents case.
Trump is sitting at the defense table in between his attorneys Todd Blanche and John Lauro.
Special counsel Jack Smith can be seen looking at Trump, while Trump whispers with Blanche. Trump’s hands are clasped on the table.
-ABC News’ Alex Mallin and Mike Levine
Aug 03, 3:49 PM EDT
Special counsel Jack Smith enters courtroom
Special counsel Jack Smith and his team have entered the courtroom ahead of former President Donald Trump’s initial appearance and arraignment.
Smith is not sitting at the prosecutors’ table, but sitting nearby. Special counsel prosecutors Molly Gaston and Tom Windom are sitting at the table, along with another female prosecutor.
Smith also attended Trump’s arraignment in the classified documents case he brought in Florida.
-ABC News’ Mike Levine
Aug 03, 3:24 PM EDT
Trump, allies filed over 60 suits challenging outcome of election
Former President Donald Trump and his allies filed over 60 lawsuits challenging the outcome of the 2020 election based on allegations of fraud, despite no evidence of widespread fraud that could have impacted the results. Nearly every single lawsuit was rejected, thrown out or withdrawn — including two denials from the United States Supreme Court.
Aug 03, 3:08 PM EDT
Trump in motorcade alone on way to courthouse
Former President Donald Trump’s motorcade is now en route from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport to the E. Barrett Prettyman federal courthouse in Washington, D.C.
Trump is in the motorcade alone with just his Secret Service detail.
No family is traveling with him.
This marks only the second time Trump has returned to D.C. since leaving office.
Aug 03, 2:49 PM EDT
Trump touches down in DC
Former President Donald Trump’s plane has touched down in Washington, D.C., ahead of his federal court appearance.
Aug 03, 2:17 PM EDT
Who is Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya?
Former President Donald Trump has been summoned to appear before Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya for Thursday’s arraignment on his third indictment.
Upadhyaya was appointed as a U.S. magistrate judge on Sept. 7, 2022, according to her D.C. District Court biography.
Upadhyaya was born in Gujarat, India, and raised near Kansas City, Missouri. She graduated from the University of Missouri and went on to receive her law degree from American University, Washington College of Law.
Former President Donald Trump’s plane is wheels-up at Newark Liberty International Airport and en route to Washington, D.C., for his Thursday afternoon court appearance.
The former president walked alone up the steps to his plane and boarded without speaking.
Aug 03, 1:40 PM EDT
Christie says he was questioned regarding Trump’s knowledge of 2020 election results
Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie told New York Magazine’s “On With Kara Swisher” podcast that he was questioned six to eight weeks ago regarding former President Donald Trump’s “knowledge of the reality of the election results.”
“They were trying to get a handle on what I knew about his knowledge of the reality of the election results,” Christie said.
The former New Jersey governor refused to say which specific inquiry he was called in for questioning on, but said he “was honest” with investigators and hopes it was helpful.
-ABC News’ Nicholas Kerr
Aug 03, 1:09 PM EDT
Trump leaves Bedminster club
Former President Donald Trump has left his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club to travel to his court appearance in Washington, D.C.
Trump’s motorcade will take him to the Newark Liberty International Airport where the former president will board his own plane to fly to D.C.
Aug 03, 12:58 PM EDT
Trump plays golf hours before court appearance
Former President Donald Trump played golf in New Jersey on Thursday, hours before heading to court in Washington, D.C., sources told ABC News.
The former president also had several conversations with his staff about his 2024 campaign, sources said.
A handful of supporters and protesters, law enforcement from multiple agencies and dozens of press cameras and satellite trucks are waiting outside the E. Barrett Prettyman federal courthouse in Washington, D.C., for former President Donald Trump.
In the mix of the officers and dozens of cameras is a small group of Trump supporters carrying campaign flags saying “Trump for President 2024” and “Finish The Wall.”
Some protesters were seen holding signs reading “clear and present danger” and “lock him up.”
No large protests have formed outside, but officials have been passing out emergency number cards to contracted security guards to report anything suspicious.
Aug 03, 9:26 AM EDT
Campaign staff to travel with Trump to DC
Former President Donald Trump is expected to travel to Washington, D.C., Thursday on his personal plane, accompanied by campaign staff and a handful of attorneys including John Lauro, Todd Blanche, Boris Epshteyn and Alina Habba, sources told ABC News.
At court, Trump will sit at the defense table with Lauro and Blanche. A plea of not guilty is expected to be entered, ABC News has learned.
Aug 02, 5:41 PM EDT
Capitol Police Chief: ‘We’re prepared for tomorrow’
The U.S. Capitol Police force is prepared for former President Donald Trump’s arraignment on Thursday, Chief Thomas Manger told reporters.
“We’re prepared for tomorrow,” Manger said during a press briefing on Wednesday. “We’re prepared for whatever might happen.”
Manger said USCP has been in talks with its partner agencies, including the Metropolitan Police Department, Park Service and Secret Service.
There are no plans to put up fencing around the Capitol complex, Manger said.
-ABC News’ Lauren Peller
Aug 02, 3:09 PM EDT
Trump’s fingerprints will be taken digitally, no mugshot
Former President Donald Trump won’t be placed in handcuffs when he arrives at court on Thursday, according to a U.S. Marshals spokesperson.
Trump will have his fingerprints taken digitally and he will be required to give his social security number, date of birth and address, the spokesperson said.
Trump’s mugshot won’t be taken because the former president’s picture is publicly available, according to the spokesperson.
-ABC News’ Luke Barr
Aug 02, 2:36 PM EDT
Pence: ‘I wish it didn’t come to this’
Former Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday said of the indictment, “I wish it didn’t come to this.”
“It will be up to the government to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that this actually represented criminal conduct,” Pence told reporters while campaigning at the Indiana State Fair.
Pence, asked what he had learned after reading through the indictment, responded that he “didn’t know anything about the effort to secure fake electors” at the time.
-ABC News’ Libby Cathey
Aug 02, 2:25 PM EDT
Security preparations underway at DC courthouse
Security preparations are underway at Washington, D.C., District Court ahead of former President DonaldTrump’s Thursday afternoon appearance.
Secret Service and other law enforcement agencies on Wednesday conducted a walkthrough of the courthouse, including the courtroom where Trump will be appearing.
Trump is expected to appear in person before Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya.
Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi said in a statement, “While the Secret Service does not comment on specific protective means or methods, we have the utmost confidence in the dedication and commitment to security shared by all of our law enforcement and government partners.”
“We are working closely with the Metropolitan Police Department, U.S. Marshals Service, U.S. Park Police, U.S. Capitol Police and the Federal Protective Service to ensure the highest levels of safety and security for the former president, while minimizing disruptions to the normal court process,” Guglielmi said.
Aug 02, 10:17 AM EDT
Who is the judge assigned to the case
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, has been assigned to oversee former President Donald Trump’s case involving his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, according to the court docket.
Aug 02, 10:03 AM EDT
How Trump could challenge the indictment
As former President Donald Trump prepares to fight a sweeping federal indictment charging him with unlawfully attempting to overturn the 2020 election, legal experts weigh in on what to expect as the case moves forward.
Click here for their take on what’s next and how Trump could challenge the indictment.
Aug 02, 9:11 AM EDT
Special counsel speaks out on Trump’s 3rd indictment
Shortly after a third indictment was unveiled against former President Donald Trump, special counsel Jack Smith spoke briefly from the U.S. Department of Justice on Tuesday about the new charges related to Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss.
Smith, the independent prosecutor overseeing the federal cases against Trump, said the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was “an unprecedented assault on the seat of American democracy” that was “fueled by lies” from the former president about the 2020 election.
“The indictment was issued by a grand jury of citizens here in the District of Columbia and it sets forth the crimes charged in detail,” Smith told reporters. “I encourage everyone to read it in full.”
Aug 02, 8:50 AM EDT
2024 GOP candidates react to Trump’s 3rd indictment
The latest indictment against former President Donald Trump quickly divided the GOP primary field that is running against him in the 2024 presidential election, with some of his fellow White House contenders opting to defend him and others lambasting him on Tuesday.
Aug 02, 8:26 AM EDT
Lawmakers react to Trump’s 3rd indictment
After a third indictment was filed against former President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the reaction on Capitol Hill was swift.
Republican leaders again came to Trump’s defense as they did after he was charged in a New York state indictment and a federal indictment in Florida. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats called the indictment a serious development and said the former president must be held responsible if found guilty.
Aug 02, 7:34 AM EDT
Who are the ‘co-conspirators’ in the indictment
The latest indictment against former President Donald Trump references — but does not name — six other “co-conspirators” who took actions alongside him.
ABC News has identified five of the co-conspirators based on details in Tuesday’s federal indictment as well as publicly available information. Click here to read more.
Aug 02, 7:05 AM EDT
What’s in the indictment
A federal indictment unsealed Tuesday charges former President Donald Trump with four counts in connection with his alleged plot to overthrow the result of the 2020 presidential election.
Click here to read the full 45-page indictment as well as a breakdown of some of the major details.
Aug 02, 6:32 AM EDT
Trump describes latest indictment as ‘pile-on,’ ‘election interference’
Former President Donald Trump described the latest charges against him as a “pile-on.”
“It’s election interference,” Trump told ABC News in a brief telephone interview on Tuesday, after the sweeping federal indictment was unsealed.
Trump, who is currently the Republican front-runner in the 2024 presidential race, said he is “doing very well in the polls” and that he believes he will “defeat” President Joe Biden in the upcoming election.
Trump also called the recent indictments against him “ridiculous,” telling ABC News he will “fight and we will win.”
