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(LONDON) — Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East puts into question key elements of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) agreed by regional nations last month, a senior Qatari government official told ABC News on Thursday.

Majed al-Ansari, an adviser to Qatar’s prime minister and the spokesperson for the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on the sidelines of the Chatham House think tank’s 2026 conference in London that Doha is hoping that intense rounds of reciprocal strikes between the U.S. and Iran do “not kill off the memorandum of understanding altogether.”

“But it does put into question a lot of other things that we have already agreed upon,” he said.

The past 48 hours, Ansari said, have been “quite tense.” He added that since the resumption of strikes, “We’ve seen again navigation through the Strait of Hormuz basically grind to a halt.”

“We are urging all sides to exercise restraint and give some more time for the talks,” Ansari said.

U.S. Central Command said it launched more than 170 strikes on Iranian targets over the past two days in response to alleged Iranian attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week — allegations that Tehran denied. One of the ships attacked was a Qatari liquid natural gas tanker, the Al-Rekayyat, Qatar said.

In response to the U.S. strikes, the Iranian military claimed to have launched attacks on U.S. military facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.

The U.S. and Iran have traded several volleys of attacks since the MOU was signed on June 17.

Ansari denied the Iranian claim that it launched fresh attacks on Qatar on Thursday. “There haven’t been any attacks in Qatar. The Iranian claims, they’re claims. But our military was very much ready, immediately as the attacks began on the region,” he said. “We had some pass overs, but nothing targeting us.”

President Donald Trump on Wednesday suggested that the MOU was “over” following the reported Iranian attacks, dismissing leaders in Tehran as “scum” and threatening intensified military action.

Asked about those comments, Ansari said Doha and “all parties remain engaged in the talks.”

“Yes, we’re not at the place that we were hoping to be at this time in the chronology of where we wanted the talks to go. But talks have not broken down,” he said. “But, of course, any escalation on the ground derails the diplomatic work.”

Qatar — alongside Pakistan — played a key role in forging the 14-point MOU agreed in June, under which the U.S. and Iran agreed to the reopening Strait of Hormuz and the end of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. 

The agreement also stipulated that fighting would stop for 60 days while the U.S. and Iran negotiated the terms of a final deal, which would cover issues including Iran’s nuclear material.

Ansari said talks on that final deal are ongoing despite the escalating strikes and heated rhetoric from both Washington and Tehran.

“The easy answer is everybody’s talking to everybody,” he said when asked what was happening behind the scenes, noting that work is ongoing on all three separate tracks — one regarding the Strait of Hormuz, one regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the third regarding the sanctions on Iran and frozen Iranian assets.

“Our focus is on that diplomatic resolution right now,” Ansari added. “The focus has to be on the diplomatic track working, the talks succeeding and on the end of war to pave the way for sustainable peace in our region, and not for it just to be lulls between attacks.”

“No country, however strong that country is when it comes to its military, is able to withstand an unending military conflict in a small region like ours,” Ansari said.

Nonetheless, he said Qatar’s armed forces are prepared for renewed conflict. “We have taken all the contingencies in respect of what might happen in the region,” Ansari said. 

Qatar, he added, has “not taken part in any attacks against Iran or any other of our neighboring countries.” When asked if Doha would be willing to do so, Ansari replied, “We reserve the right to retaliate.”

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(NEW YORK) — El Nino conditions continue to intensify and are likely to be a strong event in the coming months, significantly influencing our weather, the hurricane season and global temperatures, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

There is very high confidence that El Nino will continue through early spring 2027.

NOAA’s latest forecast calls for a strong El Nino to develop by the fall, with an 81% chance of a very strong El Nino between October and December, which could also end up being one of the strongest events on record. Historical records go back to 1950.

Stronger El Nino events only make certain impacts more likely and do not always guarantee strong impacts, NOAA noted.

El Nino refers to the warmer-than-average phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle where sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise and fall. The cooler-than-average phase is called La Nina, while near-average conditions are known as ENSO-neutral.

NOAA ranks the strength of El Nino events by measuring the sea surface temperature departure from average (anomaly) across this region, classifying events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.

“El Nino conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. “This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.”

While adjectives such as “super” and “extreme” are popular ways of describing the strength of an El Nino event on social media, NOAA and the WMO classify by strength. The WMO noted in a recent statement that “the term [[super]] is not part of standardized operational classifications.”

Typical El Nino impacts across the United States

Impacts from El Nino, similar to La Nina, tend to be most consistent and pronounced from late autumn through early spring following the event’s onset, NOAA says. There is usually a delay between the onset of the event and many of the associated effects.

“The more consistent impacts on precipitation and temperature don’t occur until the winter months — so for 2026-27,” Michelle L’Heureux, physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said.

Experts caution that the impacts on weather patterns are nuanced. Each season is different, and typical El Nino conditions don’t always materialize.

“Every El Nino is different in terms of timing, magnitude, and geographic extent, and such differences lead to variability in the impacts — on temperatures and rainfall, for example — on a global scale,” Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior staff researcher at Columbia Climate School, said.

Northeast: Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern half of the U.S. during meteorological winter (December to February), however its influence is less pronounced in the Northeast, compared to the Upper Midwest and Northwest.

El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast as storms often move up the coast. Farther inland, drier-than-average conditions and less snow are more likely.

South: During the winter months, near- to below-average temperatures are favored along the southern tier of the U.S., especially from Texas to the Southeast.

For precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are typically observed across Texas, the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Below-average precipitation is frequently observed across parts of the south-central Mississippi Valley.

Midwest: Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes in the winter. Drier-than-average conditions are frequently observed across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.

El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the south-central Plains with below-average snowfall favored in northern Plains and Great Lakes regions.

West: During the winter months, warmer-than-average temperatures are likely across much of the Northwest. For precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are typically observed across southern California and much of the Southwest, with below-average precipitation frequently observed across parts of the northern Rockies.

El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the southern Rockies, with below-average snowfall favored in the northern Rockies.

Meanwhile, above-average tropical activity in the eastern Pacific increases the likelihood of indirect impacts to the southwestern U.S., such as sending more rain to the region and more frequent flash flood concerns.

Alaska: El Nino impacts in Alaska tend to be more pronounced than across much of the contiguous U.S., with the strongest effects typically occurring during the winter and spring months. During winter, warmer- and drier-than-average conditions are more likely, with less snowfall and reduced snowpack.

Above average temperatures often persist into spring, while precipitation trends closer to average. However, warmer conditions typically mean more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, prolonging snow deficits.

Hawaii: Rainfall is typically above average across Hawaii the year an El Nino event develops before conditions become drier during the winter months and remain dry well into the following year. The shift toward drier weather can increase the likelihood of drought and elevate the risk of wildfires.

Meanwhile, above-average tropical activity in the eastern Pacific increases the risk of impacts from tropical systems across the Hawaiian Islands.

El Nino’s influence on hurricane season activity

While El Nino is only one of several key factors that influence tropical activity, forecasts now indicate it will be a strong event during the peak of the hurricane season, making it the primary driver of activity in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific in the coming months.

El Nino conditions often suppress tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season by producing unfavorable atmospheric winds. In the Eastern Pacific, the opposite occurs, with favorable conditions supporting above-average hurricane season activity.

As a result, NOAA’s May 21 hurricane outlook is predicting below average tropical activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with above average activity likely in the eastern Pacific.

“El Nino increases convection (thunderstorms) across the eastern and central Pacific, which causes downstream wind shear over the Atlantic from strong upper-level winds,” Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said.

Vertical wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is often a primary factor in below-average hurricane season activity. Strong vertical wind shear can tear a developing tropical system apart or even prevent it from forming, NOAA says.

“The rising motion over the Pacific also leads to increased subsidence (sinking air) over the Atlantic, which suppresses thunderstorms and tropical cyclone development,” Hazelton added.

Other factors, such as sea surface temperatures, also play an important role in tropical cyclone development and strength. Unseasonably warm ocean waters can partially offset the effects of unfavorable atmospheric winds, according to forecasters.

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(LONDON) — One of the most brutal heat waves to impact Europe in the last 50 years broke temperature records in multiple countries, according to Copernicus, Europe’s climate change service.

Western Europe, the region most affected by the heat wave during the second half of June, experienced its warmest June on record, the agency said.

The average land temperature in Europe in June 2026 was the second-highest on record, at 19.14 degrees Celsius, or 66.45 degrees Fahrenheit, according to Copernicus. This marks 1.78 degrees Celsius, or 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit, above the 1991 to 2020 average for the month.

Rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures “reflect a climate system continuing to accumulate heat” — resulting in increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean and growing risks for people and ecosystems, Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said in a statement.

“June 2026 underscored how profoundly the climate is changing,” Burgess said. “Western Europe recorded its warmest June on record, and continued record warmth in the global ocean.”

Many June and some all-time records for daily maximum temperature were broken in several countries, according to Copernicus.

Weather officials in the United Kingdom said temperatures on June 24 rose in some areas to 35.7 degrees Celsius, or about 96.2 degrees Fahrenheit, topping a June 1976 record of 35.6 C.

In France, the country’s national heat index — a daily average — hit 30 degrees Celsius, or about 86 degrees Fahrenheit, on June 24 — the highest-ever temperature recorded, according to weather officials at Meteo-France, the national weather service. High temperatures in Paris were in the triple digits in the days after.

The Louvre and the Eiffel Tower closed early several days in a row as a result of the high temperatures.

The high temperatures also impacted cities like Madrid and Rome, which hit the high 90s during the last week of June.

Reuters reported there were more than 5,000 excess deaths in Germany alone — mostly residents 75 and older — and another 4,700 deaths in France, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands between June 20 and 28.

“Heat stress is often called the ‘silent killer’ – and European homes, workplaces and schools were not built for these temperatures,” WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in an X post.

Overall, the planet experienced its second-warmest June globally, according to Copernicus.

In addition, much of Western Europe, including Italy, large parts of central and eastern Europe and the southern U.K., experienced drier-than-average conditions, associated with persistent high-pressure and heatwave conditions, according to Copernicus.

River flow was also below average across Europe, consistent with the widespread dry conditions, according to Copernicus. Large parts of France, much of central and eastern Europe and parts of northeastern Europe were especially impacted.

Globally, June 2026 was the second-warmest on record, with an average surface air temperature of 16.5 degrees Celsius, about 61.8 degrees Fahrenheit — about .56 degrees Celsius, or about 1 degree Fahrenheit — above the June average for 1991 to 2020.

Sea surface temperature at extrapolar oceans, or oceans outside the Arctic and Antarctic, was the highest on record for June at 20.86 degrees Celsius, or 69.5 degrees Fahrenheit, according to Copernicus.

Surface sea temperatures also remain “exceptionally high” across a large portion of the tropical Pacific, where El Nino conditions are present and forecast to strengthen in the coming months, the agency said.

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