Climate and environment updates: UN-backed carbon credits market gets greenlight

Climate and environment updates: UN-backed carbon credits market gets greenlight
Climate and environment updates: UN-backed carbon credits market gets greenlight
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(NEW YORK) — The climate crisis is not a distant threat; it’s happening right now and affecting what matters most to us. Hurricanes intensified by a warming planet and drought-fueled wildfires are destroying our communities. Rising seas and flooding are swallowing our homes. And record-breaking heatwaves are reshaping our way of life.

The good news is we know how to turn the tide and avoid the worst possible outcomes. However, understanding what needs to be done can be confusing due to a constant stream of climate updates, scientific findings, and critical decisions that are shaping our future.

That’s why the ABC News Climate and Weather Unit is cutting through the noise by curating what you need to know to keep the people and places you care about safe. We are dedicated to providing clarity amid the chaos, giving you the facts and insights necessary to navigate the climate realities of today — and tomorrow.

UN-backed carbon credits market gets greenlight, potentially revolutionizing the process

After a yearslong deadlock, delegates at COP29, the U.N. global climate conference, have finally reached an agreement on international carbon market standards, a critical step in launching a global carbon market.

The new global carbon market would standardize the issuing, trading and redeeming of carbon credits. A carbon credit is a voucher representing a specific amount of greenhouse gas reduction or removal from the atmosphere. Individuals, businesses, organizations and countries can use carbon credits to offset an action that produces emissions — for example, paying for tree planting to offset the emissions from a factory or an airplane flight.

Presently, carbon trading markets are run by various organizations with little to no regulation or universal standards. However, a U.N.-backed global carbon market would provide the financial and regulatory support of the international governing body.

U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said the new global carbon market will help countries implement their climate plans faster and cheaper, driving down emissions. Since this will be an open international market, companies, organizations and individuals could utilize the market to meet their voluntary climate targets, regardless of their nation’s participation.

A U.N.-backed global climate market would also bring significant financial benefits to the global market. Yalchin Rafiyev, COP29 lead negotiator, said this new market will be a game-changing tool that directs resources to the developing world and helps save up to $250 billion a year on climate plan implementation.

The International Emissions Trading Association, a nonprofit business group that supports global carbon markets, said that within a few years, the implementation of the U.N.-back carbon market not only has the potential to save the global economy billions of dollars per year, but could also cut approximately 5 billion metric tons of carbon output annually.

While a path has been cleared for this new carbon market to become operational, COP29 negotiators said there is still more work to do before it can be launched. Discussions will continue through the end of the conference to address any additional questions and concerns.

-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

Day 3 at COP29 shows how hard it will be for the world to quit fossil fuels

Day three of COP29, the global U.N. climate conference, highlighted how challenging it will be for the world to transition away from fossil fuels. As some countries are making new commitments to reduce emissions and ramp up clean energy production, others are advocating for the continued use of fossil fuels.

Joining the United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates, Brazil announced its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) plans on Wednesday. NDCs are each country’s plan for achieving the goals outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement. Brazil has pledged to reduce its carbon emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035.

“Cutting emissions by 67% by 2035 could put Brazil on a pathway to reach net-zero by 2050,” said Karen Silverwood-Cope, climate director of WRI Brasil.

Brazil is hosting next year’s COP, and Silverwood-Cope said the country has “a responsibility to lead by example and aim high.”

But Silverwood-Cope also pointed out that Brazil’s NDC does not include a plan for reducing fossil fuel emissions. Instead, they are pledging to increase biofuel production. Biofuel is produced from renewable biological sources, including plants and algae. In Brazil, biofuel primarily comes from soybean oil. As a country with a history of mass deforestation, the loss of vegetation and forests for energy is controversial.

“Instead of saying that they’re going to reduce oil consumption in the country, they are betting on biofuels,” said Silverwood-Cope.

She said Brazil plans to use denigrated land for biofuel production. Deingrated land is land that has already been deforested.

As Brazil announced its new, stronger climate pledge, another South American country moved in the opposite direction by literally walking out of the conference.

Argentinian President Javier Milei ordered the country’s COP29 representatives to withdraw from the conference and return home. Milei, the country’s newly-elected, far-right president, has a history of climate change denial.

Despite the drama, delegates came to some agreements, including using more nuclear power as an alternative to fossil fuels.

The United States, El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Nigeria and Türkiye endorsed a declaration calling for tripling the use of nuclear energy by 2050.

Italy also voiced its support for more nuclear energy and touted its ongoing investment in nuclear fusion research. Unlike current nuclear reactors, nuclear fusion doesn’t create radioactive waste. Despite billions of dollars in research funding, the technology has yet to be developed commercially.

“We must use all available technologies. Not only renewables, but also gas, biofuels, hydrogen, CO2 capture, and, in the future, nuclear fusion,” said Italian President Giorgia Meloni. “Italy is at the forefront on nuclear fusion.”

-ABC News’ Charlotte Slovin

Fossil fuel emissions hit record highs in 2024, according to study

If negotiating international agreements to slow down and reverse the global climate crisis wasn’t challenging enough, the delegates at COP29, the U.N. climate conference in Azerbaijan, are facing the grim reality that the world is moving in the wrong direction when it comes to fossil fuels.

According to the latest Global Carbon Budget report from the Global Carbon Project, carbon emissions from fossil fuels have hit a record high in 2024. The study projects that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will reach 37.4 billion tonnes, up 0.8% from 2023.

For almost three decades, international leaders have been attending COP conferences and discussing the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, despite these efforts, the Global Carbon Project says, “There is still no sign that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions.”

“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” wrote Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute in a press statement.

He added, “Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts.”

Although the past decade has seen a decline in emissions from deforestation and land-use changes, emissions this year are rising compared to 2023, influenced by extreme drought conditions linked to the 2023-2024 El Niño climate event, according to the study. Despite this increase, land-use emissions have actually declined by 20% over the past decade thanks to reforestation and afforestation efforts.

Efforts to stop burning coal for energy are slowing down the year-over-year increase in those emissions, but they are still rising, albeit modestly. The study estimates that global coal emissions will increase by 0.2%. China and India are seeing increases of 0.2% and 4.5%, respectively, while the United States and the European Union are seeing declines of 3.5% and 15.8%.

Overall, the study found that China’s emissions (32% of the worldwide total) for 2024 are expected to increase by 0.2% compared to 2023. India (8% of the worldwide total) is projected to grow emissions by 4.6% from the previous year. The European Union (7% of the worldwide total) should see a 3.8% decline year-to-year and the United States (13% of the worldwide total) is looking at a 0.6% decrease compared to 2023.

It’s important to remember that many products purchased and used in the U.S. and Europe are made in places like China and India. Hence, their emissions reflect the manufacturing of goods for other countries.

According to the research, this trend worsens the cumulative impact of CO₂ in the atmosphere, projected to reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2024, representing a 52% increase compared to pre-industrial levels.

There is some good news in the data. The study finds that many countries have succeeded in reducing their fossil fuel carbon emissions or slowing down their growth. However, it’s not enough to put the world on a path to net zero.

“There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive,” wrote Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in a statement. “Climate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others.”

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

World leaders send mixed messages about the climate crisis on Day 2 of COP29

If there was a theme for the second day of COP29, the U.N. climate conference in Azerbaijan, it would be mixed messaging from world leaders. As some nations announced ambitious new climate goals, others justified their continued reliance on fossil fuels. The developments come when the world is questioning the United States’ future commitment to climate progress in light of President-elect Donald Trump’s previous comments about climate change and his selection for EPA administrator.

During his remarks, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, whose country is hosting the event, defended the use of fossil fuels, calling oil a “a gift of the God” and saying that it is just like any other natural resource. He added that countries “should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market.”

“To accuse us that we have oil is the same like to accuse us that we have more than 250 sunny days in Baku,” said Aliyev.

Aliyev also called Western countries hypocrites for decrying oil production and calling for an end to fossil fuel use while still buying oil from countries like Azerbaijan. The European Commission signed an agreement with Azerbaijan in 2022 to receive oil from them when they stopped getting it from Russia. He said double standards are the “modus operandi” for climate talks.

Aliyev’s pro-oil statements aren’t expected to sidetrack the negotiations. David Waskow, director of international climate action at World Resources Institute, said statements from world leaders “in a sense float above the COP.”

But Aliyev’s comments added fuel to the criticism that oil-producing states shouldn’t be hosting a global climate conference. The United Arab Emirates, another country with significant oil production, hosted last year’s event.

Baku is also not an easy place to get to. Conference-goers had to travel by plane because all land routes are closed. A recent study identified that 291 private plane flights to COP28 in Dubai generated 3.8 kilotons of CO2.

How does a nation that touts the excellence of oil and gas end up as the host of an incredibly consequential climate conference?

The answer is entirely procedural. Each year, one of the five U.N. regional groups is selected on a rotational basis to host next year’s conference. Group members choose which country will host based on logistics and ability. As a result, champions of climate progress and oil-rich countries are equally likely to host the global climate conference.

Unlike the Azerbaijani president’s call to maintain the status quo, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres stressed the urgency and stakes of controlling global emissions.

“We are in the final countdown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and time is not on our side,” the Secretary-General said, urging countries to commit legislatively and financially to the climate response.

He called 2024 “a masterclass in climate destruction,” pointing out all of the climate records broken during the year, including the hottest day and months on record, adding that “this is almost certain to be the hottest year on record.”

-ABC News’ Charlotte Slovin and ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

UK, Brazil and UAE unveil plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions

Some of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters have announced their plans to reduce emissions at the ongoing United Nations climate conference, COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Although not due until 2025, The United Kingdom, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates released their respective Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets at the conference, marking ambitious plans to reduce their climate impacts.

Under the Paris Agreement, participating countries are required to release their NDCs every five years as part of the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

“The U.K., Brazil and the UAE are the first major emitters to put forward new national climate commitments, which are the main vehicle for countries to collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid catastrophic climate impacts,” Melanie Robinson, global director of climate, economics and finance at World Resources Institute said of the announcements.

“Encouragingly, these three nations’ new climate targets could put them on a path to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 if their highest ambitions are realized,” Robison said.

The U.K. goal aims to reduce the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 81%, compared to their 1990 levels.

The Brazilian government is expected to release its NDC on Wednesday. In a preview announcement, the country said it’s committed to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 59% to 67%.

“This commitment will allow Brazil to advance towards climate neutrality by 2050, the long-term target of the climate commitment,” the government wrote in a statement Monday night. “The NDC results from an extensive assessment of Brazil’s emission scenarios. It acknowledges the urgency of combating the climate crisis, addresses the need to build resilience, and sets a roadmap for a low-carbon future for Brazil’s society, economy, and ecosystems.”

In the UAE’s NDC, released last week, the nation sets an emissions reduction target of 47% by 2035, compared to 2019.

“The UAE’s third NDC outlines a unified vision for addressing climate change that is aligned and informed by the UAE Consensus adopted at COP28,” the UAE wrote in its newest NDC. “The UAE Consensus emphasizes the need for accelerated action across all pillars of the Paris Agreement and serves as a roadmap for enhancing mitigation ambition, scaling up adaptation efforts, and aligning financial flows with low-carbon, climate-resilient development pathways.”

“I think when you look at these in the aggregate, what we’re seeing is that if these countries really pursue the full extent of what they’ve committed to, that they would be on track to achieve their net zero targets at mid-century,” said David Waskow, director of international climate action at the World Resources Institute, during a press call.

“With all three of them, there’s an important question about actually implementing them, and we’re going to need to see strong policies and investments,” Waskow added.

WRI’s Robinson also expressed skepticism about the announcements.

“While these initial 2035 targets look good on paper, they won’t move the needle unless countries take bold and immediate steps to turn them into action. The true measure of progress will be whether countries back up their promises with transformative policies and investments that embed climate action at the core of their economic strategies,” said Robinson.

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Kelly Livingston

EPA says oil and gas companies have to pay up for excessive methane emissions

For the first time, high-emitting oil and gas facilities will have to pay a fee for emitting a potent greenhouse gas if those emissions exceed a certain level set by the U.S. Environmental Production Agency (EPA).

The new rule, finalized on Tuesday, was announced by John Podesta, the top U.S. climate representative at COP29, the annual U.N. climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The regulation would cap the amount of methane that certain oil and gas facilities could release into the atmosphere. The companies will be charged a fee for each metric ton of methane exceeding that limit, starting at $900 per metric ton, increasing to $1,200 in 2025 and $1,500 in 2026.

EPA administrator Michael S. Regan wrote in a statement, “EPA has been engaging with industry, states, and communities to reduce methane emissions so that natural gas ultimately makes it to consumers as usable fuel — instead of as a harmful greenhouse gas.”

He added, “Along with EPA’s complementary set of technology standards and historic financial and technical resources under the Inflation Reduction Act, today’s action ensures that America continues to lead in deploying technologies and innovations that lower our emissions.”

The EPA estimates the new rule will reduce methane emissions by 1.2 million metric tons through 2035. That’s the equivalent of taking 8 million gas-powered cars off the road for an entire year, according to the agency.

The EPA classifies methane as a “super pollutant” and says that over 100 years, one ton of methane released into the atmosphere “traps 28 times as much heat in the Earth system as one ton of emitted carbon dioxide.” On a 20-year time scale, it’s 84 times more potent, according to the European Union.

The EPA said the oil and natural gas industry is the largest industrial source of the greenhouse gas.

During a press call, David Waskow, director of international climate action at the World Resources Institute, said, “Large oil and gas companies actually supported the fee approach, and I think that they’re aiming to make sure that methane, which has been a sort of sore spot in the oil and gas industry, is cleaned up as a way of helping the reputation of the oil and gas industry.”

Waskow said that even if the incoming Trump administration tries to undo the regulation, he believes its support within the industry may help keep it in place.

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

Global climate conference off to a challenging start

How much will it cost to fight climate change globally, and who should pay for it? That’s the primary issue facing delegates at the annual U.N. climate conference, COP29. Dubbed the “finance COP,” the two-week event began on Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan.

While representatives from nations worldwide will discuss various climate issues, finance is a key theme this year, namely how much external financing will be available to developing countries for their climate adaptation efforts and to compensate them for the damage and loss caused by climate change. Although wealthier countries generate the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, poorer nations are disproportionately impacted by the consequences of global warming.

Conference attendees and climate leaders will be watching closely the climate investment commitments made by various nations and private finance, and much of the discussion will revolve around who should be paying and how much they should be contributing.

The current target for international public and private financing is around $100 billion, but the U.N. estimates that it will take as much as $2.4 trillion by 2030 to meet climate goals, with $1 trillion coming from international sources.

It’s uncertain, however, how much each nation will contribute and where the money will go.

“For those poorest countries and particularly for adaptation, finance needs to be in grant and concessional form,” said Melanie Robinson, the global climate, economics and finance program director at the World Resources Institute.

One issue sure to be controversial is whether developing countries that can afford to contribute to the global effort should be added to the contributor base. Critics of that recommendation say the biggest emitters should be the most significant contributors.

U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell set the table for the talks during his opening address, focusing on what’s at stake.

“If at least two-thirds of the world’s nations cannot afford to cut emissions quickly, then every nation pays a brutal price,” said Stiell. “If nations can’t build resilience into supply chains, the entire global economy will be brought to its knees. No country is immune.”

Stiell added, “So, let’s dispense with the idea that climate finance is charity. An ambitious new climate finance goal is entirely in the self-interest of every single nation, including the largest and wealthiest.”

On the same day Stiell was delivering his remarks, preliminary data from the World Meteorological Organization showed that 2024 remains on track to be the warmest year on record and will likely become the first year that is more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1850 to 1900 pre-industrial average

COP29 takes place in the shadow of significant political challenges, including changes in worldwide political leanings and the recent presidential election in the U.S. It didn’t help that delegates had to delay the convention activities on Monday because leaders couldn’t agree on a conference agenda. Who would be leading financial planning meetings, as well as an unconventional move from a supervisory board to pass new standards without any consultation, were the primary sources of contestation.

Mukhtar Babayev, president of COP29 and Azerbaijan minister of ecology and natural resources, suspended sessions for further talks on the agenda.

“The hour is late, we have a lot of work ahead of us,” Babayev said as the delayed session resumed.

-ABC News’ Charlotte Slovin and ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

US climate envoy tells global climate conference the fight must continue despite election results

With the future of U.S. climate and environmental policies uncertain following the presidential election, the world is gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan, to talk climate change. COP29, formally known as the 29th Annual Conference of Parties, opened Monday with questions about the United States’ commitment to global climate goals in light of the 2024 election results.

At a press conference on Monday, U.S. Climate Change Envoy John Podesta told reporters, “For those of us dedicated to climate action, last week’s outcome in the United States is obviously bitterly disappointing.”

“It is clear that the next administration will try to take a U-turn and reverse much of this progress,” Podesta said. “And I know that this disappointment is more difficult to tolerate as the dangers we face grow ever more catastrophic,” he added.

In sharp contrast to President-elect Donald Trump calling climate change a hoax, promising to “drill, baby, drill,” and roll back unused Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds, Podesta highlighted the Biden-Harris Administration’s efforts to combat climate change, including the move to rejoin the Paris Agreement and the climate and clean energy investments made through the IRA and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

Podesta said that while the Biden Administration will work with the incoming Trump Administration to ensure a peaceful transfer of power, “This is not the end of our fight for a cleaner, safer planet.”

“Facts are still facts. Science is still science,” he added. “The fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country, this fight is bigger still, because we are all living through a year defined by the climate crisis in every country of the world.”

Podesta pointed to extreme heat records, recent hurricanes in the Southeast United States, flooding in Spain, severe drought in southern Africa, and wildfires in the Amazon as some examples of the acute impacts of climate change felt around the world just this year.

Following then-President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017, a coalition of local and state government leaders, organizations and private industry members announced the joint declaration, “We Are Still In.”

Podesta reminded attendees of that effort, saying that while a Trump White House may pose challenges for federal level climate action, the U.S. is not giving up on its goals and that support for clean energy, an issue that “has become bipartisan in the United States.”

“You might not know that by reading the newspapers, but it has,” he said. “57% of new clean energy jobs created since the Inflation Reduction Act passed are located in congressional districts represented by Republicans.”

He added, “We can and will make real progress on the backs of our climate committed states and cities, our innovators, our companies and our citizens, especially young people, who understand more than most that climate change poses an existential threat that we cannot afford to ignore. Failure or apathy is simply not an option.”

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Kelly Livingston and Matthew Glasser

How a university is using AI to reduce cafeteria food waste

Food waste is a massive problem. According to the UN, the world wastes more than a billion tons annually. Here at home, Americans waste around 80 million tons each year. And worldwide, nearly 40% of all the food we produce is lost or wasted, according to the WWF.

At the same time, Feeding America, a nationwide network of food banks and pantries, says 47 million people in the U.S. face hunger, including 1 in 5 children. Then, there are the significant environmental impacts of sending so much wasted food to landfills. Left to decompose, this organic waste releases methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that’s far more potent than carbon dioxide.

Erin Murphy, a student at Georgia State University (GSU) in Atlanta and a sustainability initiatives intern, saw all the food her peers were wasting and wanted to do something about it. She applied for a grant to bring new technology to campus that uses artificial intelligence to examine food waste and provide real-time data on what’s left behind.

The technology, aptly named “Raccoon Eyes,” analyzes the food left on each plate, categorizing and weighing the leftovers to provide detailed data on the waste and recommendations for reducing the leftovers.

When students finish their meals, they place their plates on a conveyor belt, where “Raccoon Eyes” captures an image of the plate. AI then uses that picture to evaluate the contents. This data is displayed on an online dashboard, offering real-time insights to the dining staff.

Ivan Zou, the co-founder of “Raccoon Eyes,” said the information helps identify trends, such as how many plates of a specific meal were uneaten. For example, the system showed that students ate most of the salmon they put on their plates during a particular meal, but they left behind a lot of french fries during another meal.

Jennifer Wilson, GSU’s Director of Sustainability, said that since the program’s launch in January, the AI has analyzed over 400,000 plates and found that approximately 21% contained food waste.

And it turns out that some of the most popular items, like chicken, pizza, and french fries, also generate the most waste. However, the dashboard’s detailed feedback also reveals that popular meals often have leftover portions because students take too much, not because the food is unpopular. This nuanced insight helps dining services adjust not only the menu but also portion sizes and serving methods.

The initiative is already making a difference. In the first four months, GSU reduced food waste by 23%, thanks to AI insights and increased student awareness.

The program even encourages feedback through a kiosk where students can leave comments like “sorry for my waste.” Such feedback has proven invaluable, guiding the dining team in refining their offerings, for instance, by making more of the crowd-favorite Hot Cheetos sushi and less of other less popular items.

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser, ABC News’ Matt German, and ABC News meteorologist Dan Manzo

Drought in US improves slightly but still a problem for half the country

Heading into November, widespread drought conditions are still a significant concern across the country, with the Northeast currently experiencing some of the worst impacts, according to a U.S. Drought Monitor update released Thursday.

Overall, more than half of the contiguous United States is still grappling with drought. But there are some areas where things are improving slightly. A large swath of the central U.S. saw its drought situation improve, according to the data.

As a result, countrywide drought coverage decreased from 54.08% to 51.89% week over week. Moderate to severe drought conditions expanded in the Northeast, with portions of southern New Jersey now experiencing extreme drought conditions. Recent heavy rain in the Southern Plains brought drought improvements to parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

October was one of the driest months on record for the U.S., triggering a significant increase in the area and severity of drought conditions. While the overall drought coverage has decreased slightly, over 87% of the lower 48 states continue to experience abnormally dry conditions, the most extensive coverage area ever recorded by the U.S. Drought Monitor, which began tracking the data in 2000.

Drought is a complex phenomenon influenced by various factors. Among these, extreme heat is strongly linked to human-amplified climate change. More frequent and intense extreme heat events can worsen the effects of drought. Drought risk has increased in the Southwest over the past century, according to the federal government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment.

Over the next week, measurable rain is forecast across most of the country, with widespread significant rainfall likely across portions of the Midwest, Plains and Pacific Northwest.

Looking ahead, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said most of the country will likely experience above-average precipitation in mid-November, particularly in the Midwest, Plains and West. Most of the East Coast and Gulf Coast can expect near-average rainfall during this period. No part of the nation should experience below-average precipitation during this time.

-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

2024 a near certainty to be the warmest year on record

It’s now virtually certain that 2024 will surpass 2023 as Earth’s warmest year on record, according to a new report by Copernicus, the European Union’s Climate Change Service. As of October 2024, the average global year-to-date temperature was 0.16 degrees Celsius (or 0.29 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than it was in 2023, which is the warmest year ever recorded.

While .16 degrees may not seem significant, even small global temperature increases can trigger substantial changes in weather patterns, leading to more extreme events like heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires, according to climate scientists at NASA.

Last month was also the second warmest October globally, with an average temperature of 15.25 degrees Celsius, or 59.45 degrees Fahrenheit.

Copernicus noted that 2024 will likely be the first year to be 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) than the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900.

The global average temperature over the past twelve months (November 2023 through October 2024) was 1.62 degrees Celsius or 2.92 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels.

The Paris Agreement goals aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to prevent the worst outcomes of climate change.

Global daily sea surface temperatures across most of the world’s oceans remain well above average, including much of the Atlantic Basin. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures can make hurricanes more intense and may play a role during the remainder of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which ends on November 30th.

Persistent marine heatwaves are also a major concern for the world’s coral reefs as the largest global coral bleaching event on record continues to impact these delicate ecosystems. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that nearly 77% of the world’s coral reef areas have experienced bleaching-level heat stress during this latest event, the second global coral reef bleaching event in the last 10 years.

-ABC News meteorologist Dan Peck and ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

Study finds use of renewable energy sources reduces risk of blackouts

The Texas freeze of 2021 knocked out power for more than 10 million people, leaving some without heat for days. In the aftermath of the storm, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told a national news network that “Wind and solar got shut down.” He added, “They were collectively more than 10% of our power grid, and that thrust Texas into a situation where it was lacking power on a statewide basis.”

However, in the aftermath, a research study found that renewable energy sources (RES) weren’t to blame. Instead, the researchers found that Texas “failed to sufficiently winterize its electricity and gas systems after 2011.”

Other blackouts have also been blamed on RES, including the 2016 blackout in South Australia and a 2019 outage in the U.K., both of which involved disruptions to wind farms.

Now, according to a new study from The University of Tennessee, grids with higher renewable energy penetration are actually less vulnerable to blackouts than those more reliant on traditional, non-renewable sources.

The analysis found that as the proportion of renewable energy in the grid increases, the intensity of blackouts — measured by the number of affected customers and the length of outages — decreases. This finding challenges the notion that renewable energy inherently makes power grids more fragile.

The researchers analyzed over 2,000 blackouts across the U.S., looking specifically at how renewable energy levels and various weather patterns influenced outage severity. They discovered that high levels of renewables didn’t contribute to an increase in weather-related blackouts.

In grids where renewables made up more than 30% of the energy supply, blackout events were generally less intense and shorter in duration. This trend held even during extreme weather, like high winds and storms, which can place heavy demands on power systems.

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

Researchers say they’ve devised the perfect placement for EV chargers

When you buy a gas-powered car, you rarely worry about where to fill it up. That’s because gas stations are everywhere. A 2022 McKinsey survey found that more than 40% of prospective electric vehicle (EV) buyers want that same degree of convenience when it comes to public charger availability for EVs.

Engineers at Cornell University say they have devised a solution for where to place EV charging stations so they are convenient for drivers and profitable for companies.

Using Bayesian optimization, a mathematical method that efficiently analyzes complex data to achieve these results, the research team discovered that for urban areas that it’s best to install an equal percentage of medium-speed and fast chargers. And because motorists use different speed chargers for different reasons, the researchers said it is essential to consider how they are being used when placing them around town.

For example, the engineers found that fast charging is more important at grocery stores when consumers are only inside for 20 minutes. Work and home charging stations should be medium speed because drivers usually park for hours at a time at those locations.

The researchers say their approach can boost investor returns by 50% to 100% compared to random placement strategies.

The team simulated the behavior of 30,000 vehicles over 113,000 trips in the Atlanta region, considering various traffic patterns and driver decisions. This method allowed them to determine optimal charging station placements.

Yeuchen Sophia Liu, the study’s lead author, told the Cornell Chronicle that, “Placing publicly available charging stations around cities sounds like a simple thing, but mathematically, it’s actually very hard.”

She added, “Economically strategic placement of charging stations could play a pivotal role in accelerating the transition to zero-emission vehicles.”

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

Nearly 40% of the world’s trees face extinction, according to new assessment

Climate change, deforestation, invasive pests and disease all threaten to permanently wipe out nearly 40% of the earth’s trees, according to a new assessment by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

The organization, comprised of 1,400 member organizations worldwide and 16,000 experts, said more than one in three tree species across 192 countries is now facing extinction, especially trees found on islands.

development and agriculture, as well as the other threats faced by tree species across the globe.

Since 1964, the IUCN has hosted its “Red List,” a database of threatened species from around the world. The research group found that 16,425 of the 47,282 tree species on their list are at risk of extinction — more than 2,000 of which are used for medicines, food, and fuels.

“Trees are essential to support life on Earth through their vital role in ecosystems, and millions of people depend upon them for their lives and livelihoods,” said Grethel Aguilar, IUCN director general, in a statement.

According to their analysis, “the number of threatened trees is more than double the number of all threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians combined.”

The group is calling for more habitat protection and restoration to protect these species and the creation of seed banks and botanical gardens to ensure they don’t disappear forever.

“The significance of the Global Tree Assessment cannot be overstated, given the importance of trees to ecosystems and people. We hope this frightening statistic of one in three trees facing extinction will incentivize urgent action and be used to inform conservation plans,” said Eimear Nic Lughadha from the Royal Botanic Gardens, in a statement.

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Matthew Glasser

Report finds climate change increased heat deaths among older adults by 167%; worsened food security

The health and economic costs of climate change are rising worldwide, according to the newly released 2024 Lancet Countdown, a yearly report hosted by University College London and involving more than 300 researchers.

According to the report, “Of the 15 indicators monitoring climate change-related health hazards, exposures, and impacts, ten reached concerning new records in their most recent year of data.”

With global communities facing an additional 50 days of “dangerous heat,” heat-related deaths among older adults increased by a record-breaking 167% in 2023 compared to the 1990s, according to the report’s findings.

In addition to the heat impact, the Lancet report found that climate change is significantly worsening food insecurity, with 151 million more people facing shortages compared to previous decades. And more than 3 million people died in 2021 because of air pollution and fine particulate matter.

The researchers also found that global extreme weather costs have increased by 23% from 2010-14 to 2019-23, amounting to $227 billion annually.

-ABC News Climate Unit’s Kelly Livingston and ABC News Medical Unit’s Sony Salzman

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

FBI raids Polymarket founder’s home in criminal probe of election betting platform

FBI raids Polymarket founder’s home in criminal probe of election betting platform
FBI raids Polymarket founder’s home in criminal probe of election betting platform
ABC News

(NEW YORK) — The FBI searched the New York City home of Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan as part of a criminal investigation into the election betting platform, law enforcement sources told ABC News.

The investigation, at least in part, involves whether Polymarket violated a prior settlement with the U.S. government by allowing American-based users access to its platform.

The 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission required Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million penalty for operating an illegal unregistered “event markets” that allowed users to bet on events taking place in the future, such as who will win a presidential election.

Coplan posted on X, “It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”

He added that the company is “deeply committed to being non-partisan.”

Polymarket correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election last week.

“This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election, ” a company spokesman added. “Polymarket is a fully transparent prediction market that helps everyday people better understand the events that matter most to them, including elections. We charge no fees, take no trading positions, and allow observers from around the world to analyze all market data as a public good.”

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

House Republicans strike deal on motion to vacate, making it harder to oust speaker

House Republicans strike deal on motion to vacate, making it harder to oust speaker
House Republicans strike deal on motion to vacate, making it harder to oust speaker
Tasos Katopodis/GettyImages

(WASHINGTON) — House Speaker Mike Johnson announced Wednesday evening that House Republicans from across the conference struck a deal to raise the threshold for the motion to vacate — a procedure rank-and-file lawmakers can use to remove the speaker. The new agreement makes it harder to remove a speaker from the position.

The agreement would raise the threshold to force a vote on ousting a speaker from one member to nine members.

A one-member vote triggered the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and ultimately led to Johnson’s ascension to the speakership a little more than a year ago.

While the nine-member threshold makes it harder to oust a speaker, it does not completely remove the threat.

Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris of Maryland and Main Street Caucus Chairman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota — who negotiated the deal on Wednesday — appeared with Johnson at a press conference where they explained the change.

“We had an opportunity to set the motion to vacate at a higher than number one, that motion to vacate will be set at nine in return for getting rid of some amendments that probably would have divided this conference,” Johnson said.

He said the agreement allows Republicans to be “in a better position to move forward with the Republican agenda to make sure that Speaker Johnson, South Dakota Senate Leader John Thune and our President Donald Trump have an opportunity to go forward.”

“For me this is exactly how we’re supposed to come together,” Johnson said.

Harris said the change allows the conference to execute on Trump’s plans.

“We’ve been able to work across the conference to eliminate the controversial issues that could have divided us and move forward together to deliver on the President’s agenda. That’s it,” Harris said.

A little over a year ago, former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz introduced a motion to remove McCarthy from the House speakership, plunging the chamber into chaos for weeks.

Earlier this year, Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene filed a motion to vacate the speaker’s chair, threatening to oust Johnson just months after he ascended to the speakership. When she officially triggered a vote on her motion to oust Johnson, Democrats joined almost all Republicans to overwhelmingly reject her move.

House Republicans will are huddling Thursday morning where they’ll still have to ratify the agreement.

Johnson won the House Republican nomination Wednesday to stay on as the House’s top job. On Wednesday, he said he was “delighted” and “honored” to be the nominee for speaker, saying “we’ll head into Jan. 3 to make all that happen.”

The chamber will vote on their rules package for the 119th Congress on Jan. 3, 2025, following the election of the speaker on the floor.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

Pete Hegseth’s plan to overhaul America’s military: ‘You need to fire a ton of generals’

Pete Hegseth’s plan to overhaul America’s military: ‘You need to fire a ton of generals’
Pete Hegseth’s plan to overhaul America’s military: ‘You need to fire a ton of generals’
Roy Rochlin/Getty Images, FILE

(NEW YORK) — Across hours of podcast and television interviews, Army veteran and Fox News host Pete Hegseth has articulated his plan for a “frontal assault” to reform the Department of Defense from the top down, including by purging “woke” generals, limiting women from some combat roles, eliminating diversity goals and utilizing the “real threat of violence” to reassert the United States as a global power.

As President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for the Secretary of Defense, Hegseth, 44, could have the chance to implement that vision, commanding the country’s more than a million active duty soldiers.

An infantry officer in the U.S. Army National Guard, Hegseth deployed to Guantanamo Bay, Iraq and Afghanistan before leaving the service with the rank of major, according to military records. Hegseth has worked for Fox News since 2014, where he co-hosts “FOX & Friends Weekend.” Once a critic of Trump’s foreign policy and military stances during Trump’s 2016 campaign, Hegseth grew to become one of Trump’s fiercest on-air defenders.

“Pete is tough, smart and a true believer in America First. With Pete at the helm, America’s enemies are on notice – Our Military will be Great Again, and America will Never Back Down,” Trump said announcing the nomination.

A New York Times best-selling author, Hegseth has frequently commented on military policy and suggested one of his first orders of business would be firing any generals who supported the Pentagon’s diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts.

“First of all, you got to fire the Chairman Joint of the Chiefs and obviously going to bring in a new Secretary of Defense, but any general that was involved — general, admiral, whatever — that was involved in, any of the DEI woke s—, has got to go,” Hegseth said during a recent interview on the “Shawn Ryan Show” podcast. “Either you’re in for warfighting, and that’s it. That’s the only litmus test we care about.”

Hegseth had preemptively defended the move, saying it would be a return to normalcy for soldiers rather than a “MAGA takeover.”

While Hegseth has described countries like Russia and China as threats, he has framed the military’s biggest threat as an internal one, arguing that “wokeness” divided the military internally and created an issue that adversaries can exploit.

“I think our biggest threat is internal. I think we’re committing cultural suicide, and we’ve lost complete focus on the basics and building blocks of what made Western civilization in America exceptional, fruitful, prosperous, strong, free,” Hegseth said on the podcast.

Hegseth has proposed a wholesale purge of military officials who have supported DEI policies, urging a “frontal assault right back at what’s been done to this military from the top and to the bottom.”

“The dumbest phrase on planet Earth in the military is our diversity is our strength,” Hegseth said on the podcast, arguing that uniformity between soldiers is a key to the military’s strength.

“Every time I hear a military leader say [diversity is our strength], I throw up in my mouth a little bit more, because if they believe it, it shows you how sideways and how indoctrinated they are,” Hegseth said on “The Right Take With Mark Tapson” podcast.

While 17.5% of active-duty military personnel are women, Hegseth has argued that military leaders should acknowledge that their main constituency is “strong, normal men,” rebuffing efforts to diversify the ranks of the armed services.

“There aren’t enough lesbians in San Francisco to staff the 82nd Airborne like you need, you need the boys in Kentucky and Texas and North Carolina and Wisconsin,” Hegseth said on Tapson’s podcast earlier this year.

Hegseth was on the “Take It Outside with Jay Cutler and Sam Mackey” podcast and said that transgender soldiers are “not deployable” because they are “reliant on chemicals” and suggested that women should not serve in certain combat roles.

“Everything about men and women serving together makes the situation more complicated, and complication in combat means casualties are worse,” Hegseth said on Ryan’s podcast, arguing that men are “more capable” in combat roles because of biological factors.

An ardent defender of the president-elect, Hegseth has argued that the United States military under Trump was more effective by posing both “uncertainty” and the “real threat of violence.”

“At least under Trump, there were missiles falling on terrorists’ heads,” Hegseth said on the “Man of War” podcast with Rafa Conde. “They knew he meant business. Kim Jong Un, even though it didn’t work, knew Trump meant business. Fire and fury was a real thing. Uncertainty is a real thing. The real threat of violence is a real thing, and none of that exists under these globalists who think they can sanction their way.”

He has also criticized international institutions like the United Nations as a “farce” and “giant joke” while advocating a military policy that aims to end long-term conflicts through decisive action.

“We expect this clinically sanitized, you know, no civilian casualties. Everything’s going to be perfect. No one’s going to get hurt, everything. It’s just not how war operates, and that’s unfortunate,” Hegseth said on “The Way I Heard It with Mike Rowe” podcast. “But if we try to do it with kid gloves or with surgical gloves, we’re never really going to get rid of, actually exterminate the enemies that we need to defeat to create a peace on the other side.”

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

The Onion buys InfoWars in bankruptcy auction

The Onion buys InfoWars in bankruptcy auction
The Onion buys InfoWars in bankruptcy auction
Gary Miller/Getty Images

(NEW YORK) — The satirical website The Onion purchased InfoWars on Thursday, a capstone on years of litigation and bankruptcy proceedings following InfoWars founder Alex Jones’ defamation of families associated with the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre.

Those families backed The Onion’s bid to purchase InfoWars’ intellectual property, including its website, customer lists and inventory, certain social media accounts and the production equipment used to put Jones on the air. The Connecticut families agreed to forgo a portion of their recovery to increase the overall value of The Onion’s bid, enabling its success.

The families said the purchase would put an end to Jones’ misinformation campaign.

“We were told this outcome would be nearly impossible, but we are no strangers to impossible fights. The world needs to see that having a platform does not mean you are above accountability — the dissolution of Alex Jones’ assets and the death of Infowars is the justice we have long awaited and fought for,” said Robbie Parker, whose daughter Emilie was killed in the Sandy Hook shooting.

In 2022, the families that brought the case against Jones in Connecticut secured a $1.4 billion verdict in their defamation lawsuit. A Texas bankruptcy court ruled on the liquidation of Jones’ assets in June of this year, handing over control to an independent trustee tasked with selling them off to generate the greatest possible value for the families.

“From day one, these families have fought against all odds to bring true accountability to Alex Jones and his corrupt business. Our clients knew that true accountability meant an end to Infowars and an end to Jones’ ability to spread lies, pain and fear at scale. After surviving unimaginable loss with courage and integrity, they rejected Jones’ hollow offers for allegedly more money if they would only let him stay on the air because doing so would have put other families in harm’s way,” said Chris Mattei, attorney for the Connecticut plaintiffs and partner at Koskoff Koskoff & Bieder.

Jones had filed for bankruptcy last year in a bid to avoid paying the billion-dollar judgment, but a judge ruled he still had to settle with the Sandy Hook families.

Bankruptcy often staves off legal judgments but not if they are the result of willful and malicious injury. U.S. Bankruptcy Court Judge Christopher Lopez in Houston decided that standard was satisfied in Jones’ case.

“[I]n Jones’s case, the language of the jury instruction confirms that the damages awarded flow from the allegation of intent to harm the Plaintiffs – not allegations of recklessness,” Lopez wrote in his ruling.

Jones had claimed on his InfoWars show that the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School — which killed 26 people, including 20 elementary students — was performed by actors following a script written by government officials to bolster the push for gun control.

ABC News’ Max Zahn contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

New LA DA Nathan Hochman speaks out on Menendez brothers’ fight for freedom

New LA DA Nathan Hochman speaks out on Menendez brothers’ fight for freedom
New LA DA Nathan Hochman speaks out on Menendez brothers’ fight for freedom
VINCE BUCCI/AFP via Getty Images

(LOS ANGELES) — As calls grow for the Menendez brothers to be released from prison, the incoming Los Angeles County district attorney says he has a lot of evidence to review before showing his support.

Nathan Hochman won last week’s election for DA, beating incumbent George Gascón in a landslide, will take office in December. The election came weeks after Gascón announced his recommendation that the Menendez brothers be resentenced and eligible for parole immediately.

Hochman questioned the motivation behind Gascón’s decision to support resentencing so close to the election.

“Part of the problem with the Gascón timing of his decision is there’s a cloud over that credibility. Is it a just decision, or was it just a political ploy?” Hochman said.

“There will be no cloud over whatever decision I do,” he added.

Gascón denied his decision was politically motivated, telling ABC News, “I believe that they should be released and they should be released cleanly within the law.”

“I base my decision in the review of 30 years of … information about their behavior, as well as a very thorough understanding of what they were convicted of and the elements of the crime,” Gascón said. “So my decision was appropriately based.”

The infamous case dates back to 1989, when Lyle Menendez, then 21, and Erik Menendez, then 18, shot and killed their parents, Jose and Kitty Menendez, in the family’s Beverly Hills home. The defense claimed the brothers acted in self-defense after enduring years of sexual abuse by their father, but prosecutors alleged they killed for money.

The first trial, which had separate juries for each brother, ended in mistrials. In 1996, after the second trial — during which the judge barred much of the sex abuse evidence — the brothers were convicted and both sentenced to two consecutive terms of life without parole.

As Gascón’s appeal for the brothers’ resentencing makes its way through the courts, Hochman — who is set to take office on Dec. 2 — said he plans to read through the new alleged evidence, trial transcripts, confidential prison files and interviews with family, lawyers and law enforcement.

“What these files say is too important an issue to delegate to somebody else. I need to actually do the work myself,” he told ABC News.

The next hearing in the resentencing case is Dec. 11. Hochman, a former federal prosecutor, said he’ll “work as expeditiously as possible,” adding, “If we need some additional time to formulate our position, I’ll ask the court for it.”

“I’m not going to ask for delay, just for delay’s sake,” he added. “We’ll ask for the minimal amount of time necessary to do this work, because we owe it to the Menendez brothers, we owe it to the victim family members, we owe it to the public to get this decision right.”

The brothers’ case was propelled back into the spotlight this fall with Netflix’s release of a scripted series and a documentary — and now a new generation is calling for their release.

“If you decide this case based on just reviewing a Netflix documentary, you’re doing a disservice to the Menendez brothers, to the victims’ family members, to the public,” Hochman said.

The Menendez brothers have three possible paths to freedom.

One path is through resentencing. Gascón announced last month that he was recommending the brothers’ sentence of life without the possibility of parole be removed, and they should instead be sentenced for murder, which would be a sentence of 50 years to life. Because both brothers were under 26 at the time of the crimes, with the new sentence, they would be eligible for parole immediately, Gascón said.

The DA’s office said its resentencing recommendations take into account factors including the defendants’ ages, psychological trauma or physical abuse that contributed to carrying out the crime and their rehabilitation in prison. Gascón praised the work Lyle and Erik Menendez did behind bars to rehabilitate themselves and help other inmates.

The second path is the brothers’ request for clemency, which they’ve submitted to California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The third path is their habeas corpus petition, which was filed last year for a review of new evidence not presented at trial.

One piece of evidence is allegations from a former boy band member who revealed last year that he was raped by Jose Menendez.

The second piece of evidence is a letter Erik Menendez wrote to his cousin eight months before the murders detailing his alleged abuse. The cousin testified about the alleged abuse at trial, but the letter — which would have corroborated the cousin’s testimony — wasn’t found until several years ago, according to the brothers’ attorney.

The next hearing on the habeas corpus petition is set for Nov. 25.

ABC News’ Alex Stone, Jenna Harrison and Ashley Riegle contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

Russia increases Ukraine drone attacks by 44% since Trump election

Russia increases Ukraine drone attacks by 44% since Trump election
Russia increases Ukraine drone attacks by 44% since Trump election
Ukrainian emergency services extinguish a fire in a house, after Russian shelling, in the city of Kostiantynivka, Ukraine on November 13, 2024. (Photo by Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)

(LONDON) —  Russia increased the intensity of its long-range drone attacks on Ukrainian cities by around 44% in the week following President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, ABC News analysis shows.

The size and complexity of drone attacks by both Russia and Ukraine have been steadily increasing since the full-scale war began in February 2022. The past five weeks have seen around 4,500 UAVs cross the shared border in either direction.

But Trump’s electoral victory — confirmed in the early hours of Nov. 6 — aligned with an uptick in Moscow’s use of Iranian-produced Shahed strike drones to bombard Ukrainian targets nationwide.

The week since Trump’s win saw Russia launch 641 strike drones into Ukraine, per daily figures published by Ukraine’s air force — an average of more than 91 UAVs each day.

Ukraine’s air force recorded 2,286 launched into its territory in the period from Oct. 1 to Nov. 5, at a daily average of less than 64 UAVs.

The daily number of Russian drones surpassed 100 on three of the seven days since the U.S. presidential election, that threshold having been reached only five times in the five weeks previously. The record high of 145 drones was set on Nov. 10.

Russia often also launches ballistic missiles along with its drone barrages, though far fewer. Ukraine’s air force reported 88 missiles fired into the country between Oct. 1 and Nov. 5, and 12 in the week after the election. That meant a daily average of just over 2 Russian missiles in the period before the election and just under 2 after.

The rate of Ukrainian drone attacks has been stable since the start of October, per figures published in real time by the Russian Defense Ministry on its Telegram channels.

Moscow reported downing 1,277 between Oct. 1 and Nov. 5 — an average of just over 35 UAVs each day. The week after the election saw Russian air defenses down 243 drones, the ministry said, for a daily average of just below 35 UAVs.

ABC News cannot independently verify the numbers provided by either defense ministry. The publicly available totals do not include short-range or reconnaissance drones used in front line areas. Both Russia and Ukraine may have reasons to inflate the figures and war conditions mean details can be hard to confirm.

Nonetheless, the general trend is toward larger and more regular drone barrages.

“In the next few months up to Jan. 20, we are expecting a significantly increasing number of launches towards Ukraine,” Ivan Stupak, a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine, told ABC News.

Stupak said the number of Russian drone attacks has been steadily increasing in recent months. August saw 818 launches, September 1,410 and October 2,072, he said. Moscow’s intention, Stupak suggested, is to cause as much damage to Ukraine as possible before the change in U.S. administration.

Russia’s rising rate of long-range attacks comes alongside its increased intensity of ground assaults, with heavy fighting ongoing in eastern Ukraine, in Russia’s western Kursk region — parts of which Kyiv’s forces have occupied since August — and with Ukrainian commanders bracing for an expected offensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.

Both sides have a two-month window in which to maneuver before Trump returns to the White House, having promised during the campaign to end the war “in 24 hours” by forcing Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table.

Russia is upping the ante “because they want to put Ukraine in the most difficult situation before Trump is inaugurated,” Oleg Ignatov — the International Crisis Group think tank’s senior Russia analyst — told ABC News. “It’s good for Russia to be as a strong as possible,” he added, though noted that “events on the ground have their own logic” beyond the purely political.

Ukraine will want to continue its own long-range strikes, using its fast-developing and far-reaching drone arsenal. “Ukraine will continue conducting such types of strikes as long as it possible,” Stupak said. “First of all, Ukraine is interested in destroying huge munition depots and oil refineries and facilities.”

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia sees “positive signals” following Trump’s victory, though added it is unclear “to what extent Trump will adhere to the statements made during his campaign.”

Still, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said any peace talks must be based on the “new territorial realities” of partial Russian occupation and claimed full sovereignty over four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — as well as continued control of Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.

The Kremlin has also signaled it will not begin negotiations with Ukraine on ending the war until Ukrainian troops are removed from Kursk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set out a five-point “victory plan” in October, which included demands for full NATO membership and more long-range Western weapons — plus permission to use them on Russian territory — as key deterrence measures.

Zelenskyy’s victory plan also included three “secret annexes” that were presented to foreign leaders but not made public.

ABC News’ Patrick Reevell and Natalia Popova contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

In Ukraine, Trump election met with anxiety but also hope he might end the war

In Ukraine, Trump election met with anxiety but also hope he might end the war
In Ukraine, Trump election met with anxiety but also hope he might end the war
Valentyn Semenov /EyeEm/Getty Images

(LONDON) —  Donald Trump’s election has already triggered intense discussion of how he will impact the war in Ukraine, with all sides now preparing for potential negotiations once he takes office.

In Ukraine Trump’s victory has been met with mixed reactions. But while his threats to cut U.S. aid and his suggestions he could force Kyiv to give up territory have provoked obvious anxiety, perhaps surprisingly many Ukrainians have welcomed Trump’s win.

Some Ukrainian officials, commanders, soldiers, as well as public commentators, have told other media and ABC News they had hoped Trump would win the election, seeing it as at least a chance to end the war that they feel is not going in Ukraine’s favor, even if it an opportunity also fraught with risks.

That sentiment reflects the deep disillusionment with the Biden administration widespread in recent months among Ukrainians, many of whom view its policy as giving Ukraine enough to barely survive but not to achieve victory or even force fair negotiations. Though grateful for the huge support provided early in the war, many Ukrainians express frustration at what is termed Biden’s “self-deterrence,” imposing restrictions on some weapons and sometimes slow-rolling aid over what they see as overblown fears Russia will further escalate the war.

“Trump’s rise to power gave Ukraine hope,” a commander of a drone unit fighting in eastern Ukraine told ABC News. “He is too straightforward a person who will not pretend to help us, as the Democrats did. He is stronger than Biden and is ready to make strong decisions,” said the commander, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

Trump during the election campaign repeatedly vowed to end the war in “24 hours” by forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine to negotiate. He and members of his campaign have previously suggested that might be required to accept territorial losses.

While many Ukrainians worry Trump may still cut aid, some are ready to gamble on him, believing it’s better than continuing on a path that is bleeding the country and which many think is unlikely to regain Ukrainian territory in any case.

Russia is slowly advancing at multiple places on the frontline in eastern Ukraine, with Ukrainian troops stretched thin, reporting dangerous shortages of manpower.

“The only way left is the diplomatic path,” the commander in eastern Ukraine told ABC News.

Other Ukrainians are much more fearful, worried with Putin in a strong position he will succeed in imposing his terms in negotiations. A senior Ukrainian military official told ABC News he feared negotiating now could be a “fatal mistake”, that could see Ukraine lose territory permanently while receiving little future protection.

“You understand why Russia is agreeing to negotiations,” the official said. “They’re also run into the ground and tired. They want a breather and to regroup.” Putin would use any ceasefire now to re-arm and then re-invade Ukraine, the official warned, saying instead the U.S. should strengthen Ukraine and negotiate once Russia’s military further cracked.

Others believe that Trump, who prizes a strongman image, is unlikely to simply capitulate to Putin. Instead, they hope if Putin refuses to negotiate, Trump might supply Ukraine with more weapons with fewer restrictions to force Russia to the table.

“Do you think Trump will agree to be brought to his knees by Putin? I doubt it,” said Oleksandr Chalyi, Ukraine’s former ambassador to Washington. “Donald Trump, who says ‘let’s make America great and strong again, America first’ is not ready for a dialogue where he will be humiliated.”

Trump’s selection of Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida as his national security adviser and potential pick of Sen. Marco Rubio for his secretary of state, offered some potential encouragement to those who hope a Trump administration might take a tough line on Russia during negotiations.

Both Waltz and Rubio have been strong supporters of Ukraine during the war, while vehemently criticizing the Biden administration’s strategy and insisting NATO countries should do more.

Waltz, a former Green Beret with a reputation as a China hawk, wrote in an op-ed for The Economist magazine this month that a Trump administration should use economic pressure, in particular through reinforced sanctions on Russia’s oil exports, to force Putin to negotiate. If Putin refuses, the U.S. should increase weapon supplies to Ukraine, he wrote. He also told NPR that the U.S. could lift restrictions on Ukraine using Western long-range weapons to hit deep inside Russia, to pressure Putin to a deal.

The current Biden approach would still end in a stalemate with Rusia occupying some Ukrainian territory, Waltz wrote in The Economist, saying that it “will just take more time, blood, and treasure to get there.”

Trump has yet to formally announce he will select Rubio as his Secretary of State and he would need Senate approval.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has spoken to Trump by phone since his election, so far has publicly rejected giving up any territories and last week warned that a quick peace deal would likely end badly for Ukraine.

“We all want to end this war, but a fair ending,” Zelenskyy told journalists during a European summit in Budapest. “If it is very fast, it’s going to be a loss for Ukraine.”

The head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s parliamentary party, David Arakhamia, told ABC News last week it was too soon to discuss specific plans. But he warned Ukraine could only accept freezing the war if the U.S. provided “real security guarantees” that would prevent Russia from simply using a ceasefire to re-arm.

“We have to find the solution that guarantees people that once the war is over, it’s not going to be repeated again,” said Arakhamia, saying real security guarantees were Ukraine’s “number one” priority. But, he said, it was “good” that the U.S. is thinking seriously about the resolution to the war.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

Man dead after suspected failed attack on Brazil Supreme Court ahead of G20

Man dead after suspected failed attack on Brazil Supreme Court ahead of G20
Man dead after suspected failed attack on Brazil Supreme Court ahead of G20
Douglas Sacha/Getty Images

(LONDON) — A man killed by explosions outside of Brazil’s Supreme Court in Brasilia on Wednesday night is suspected to have been trying to launch an attack, a presidential official said, as authorities investigate the incident just days ahead of the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro.

In a statement, the court said two “loud bangs” were heard Wednesday evening prompting ministers and staff to be evacuated from the area. The incident occurred at the end of the court’s Wednesday session.

The presidential office official said the suspect was named as Francisco Wanderley Luiz. The man was seen leaving his car carrying a small bag at around 7:30 p.m. local time.

The official said Luiz tried to gain access to the Supreme Court building but failed to do so. Luiz then detonated the device he was carrying, killing himself.

Military police told ABC News that explosives and a timer were found on the dead man’s body. They said the first explosion went off in a street next to the Congress building. The second explosion — which killed the suspect — went off at the entrance of the Supreme Court building, military police said.

The prosecutor’s office said the incident is being investigated as a terror attack and that the suspect is believed to have been acting alone as a “lone wolf.”

ABC News’ Will Gretsky and Aicha El Hammar Castano contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

Trump may try to reverse TikTok ban. Here’s how he could.

Trump may try to reverse TikTok ban. Here’s how he could.
Trump may try to reverse TikTok ban. Here’s how he could.
Karl Tapales/Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — Social media platform TikTok is hurtling toward a U.S. ban that could upend its business and frustrate more than 150 million American users — unless President-elect Donald Trump finds a way to reverse the policy.

Trump, who boasts 14 million followers on TikTok, voiced opposition to the ban earlier this year. The policy, which orders TikTok to find a U.S. parent company or face a ban, is set to take effect on Jan. 19, a day before Trump’s inauguration.

An effort to eliminate the ban may present formidable political challenges and legal hurdles, experts told ABC News. The outcome could depend on support from an array of major institutions ranging from Congress and the Supreme Court to tech giants like Google and Oracle, they added.

The China-owned app has faced growing scrutiny from government officials over fears that user data could fall into the possession of the Chinese government and the app could be weaponized by China to spread misinformation.

There is little evidence that TikTok has shared U.S. user data with the Chinese government or that the Chinese government has asked the app to do so, cybersecurity experts previously told ABC News.

TikTok did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment. Neither did Trump’s transition team.

The president is expected to try to stop the ban of TikTok after he takes office, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with his views on the matter.

Here’s what to know about the different ways that Trump could try to stop the TikTok ban, according to experts:

Push Congress to repeal the TikTok ban

The most straightforward way to reverse the policy would be a repeal of the law that enacted the ban in the first place, experts told ABC News.

A repeal would require passage in both houses of Congress, landing the measure on Trump’s desk for his signature.

“The easiest way is to ask Congress to reverse the ban,” Anupam Chander, a professor of law and technology at Georgetown University, told ABC News. But, he added, it isn’t as easy as it sounds.

Congress voted in favor of the ban only seven months ago. In the House of Representatives, the ban passed by an overwhelming margin of 352-65. In the Senate, 79 members voted in favor of the measure, while 18 opposed and 3 abstained.

A repeal effort carries political risks for Trump, since it could be perceived as conciliatory toward China, in contrast with the adversarial tone voiced by Trump on the campaign trail, James Lewis, a data security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told ABC News.

“It’s a political problem,” Lewis said, noting that Trump could soften potential backlash by seeking a reform of the law rather than an outright repeal.

Trump may not need Congress to repeal the ban. A lawsuit against the ban brought by TikTok on First Amendment grounds currently stands before a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.

Experts who spoke to ABC News said they expect the court to rule against TikTok, but the company could then appeal, potentially sending the case to the Supreme Court before the ban takes effect. The Supreme Court may determine that the legal challenge holds sufficient merit to delay implementation of the ban, leading ultimately to a rejection of the law.

“The Supreme Court may want a crack at this,” Alan Rozenshtein, a law professor at the University of Minnesota who focuses on the First Amendment, told ABC News.

Refuse to enforce the TikTok ban

Instead of repealing the law or counting on court intervention, Trump could try to prevent the Justice Department from enforcing the measure, experts said.

The law orders distributors like Apple and Google to stop offering the social media platform in their app stores, and it requires cloud service providers like Oracle to withhold the infrastructure necessary for TikTok to operate.

Companies that violate the law risk a penalty of $5,000 for each user who accesses TikTok. “That adds up,” Rozenshtein said.

In theory, Trump’s Justice Department could opt against enforcement of the law, reassuring the likes of Apple and Oracle that the companies would not face prosecution in the event of a violation, experts said.

Along similar lines, the Trump administration could take up an interpretation of the ban that affords it wide latitude in finding that TikTok has complied with a requirement that it divest from parent company ByteDance, experts said.

In other words, even if TikTok has made little effort to comply with the law, the Trump administration could attempt a reading of the measure that finds the company has met the threshold necessary to avoid a ban, Rozenshtein said.

If Trump opts against enforcement, the move could still prove insufficient. Companies like Apple and Oracle may decide to comply with the ban anyway, since they could face legal risk if the Trump administration reverses its approach, Rozenshtein added.

“Trump is mercurial,” Rozenshtein said. “If you are Apple’s general counsel, do you really want this hanging over you?”

Help TikTok find a U.S. buyer

Finally, Trump could try to find a U.S. buyer for TikTok, allowing the platform to avoid a ban. This approach may appeal to Trump’s self-image as a business dealmaker, but time is running short for such a significant business transaction and TikTok has shown little appetite for it, experts said.

The law allows for a 90-day extension of the deadline for a TikTok sale, as long as the company is advancing toward an agreement. Under such a scenario, the deadline would move back to April, providing Trump with additional time.

“It’s possible that he’ll try to force TikTok to come to some kind of deal with American buyers,” Lewis said. “It’s not likely. TikTok will hold out as long as they can.”

China has signaled opposition to the sale of TikTok to a U.S. company, The Wall Street Journal reported in March.

Alternatively, Trump could seek a compromise measure in Congress that affords him additional time and wider latitude to establish a U.S.-based operation for TikTok, experts said. Or the Trump administration could offer up an interpretation of the law that gives it space to strike a compromise with TikTok.

TikTok previously proposed a solution called “Project Texas,” in which the company would keep all data on U.S. users within the country through a partnership with Oracle. When TikTok CEO Shou Chew testified before Congress last year, several members raised concern about a potential lack of third-party oversight in such an arrangement.

Trump could seek to assuage the concerns of members of Congress while reaching terms satisfactory to TikTok, Chander said.

“Trump may be able to do things that reassure the American people that the app is safe, and that it is bringing a lot of the programming here to U.S. soil,” Chander said.

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