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(NEW YORK) — General Motors said on Monday it expects to receive $500 million in refunds from tariffs that were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court.

The automaker is now boosting its full-year profit forecast by $500 million, GM CEO Mary Barra said in a letter to shareholders as the company announced its Q1 results. Barra also cited strong sales of its full-size pickup trucks, despite rising gas prices. 

The federal government opened last week its refund portal to allow companies to apply to get tariff money back. The Supreme Court ruled in February that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not give President Donald Trump the power to unilaterally impose tariffs.

GM is one of more than 330,000 importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs that were invalidated, totaling $166 billion.

The IEEPA tariffs alone cost the typical American household $700 last year, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.

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(NEW YORK) — Thousands of canceled flights in Europe over a spike in jet fuel prices. An energy emergency declaration in the Philippines. A two-week school holiday in Pakistan to conserve fuel used by commuters.

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran triggered dramatic steps in a slew of countries bent on weathering one of the worst oil shocks in history, stoking concern by some about a possible global recession.

Economists disagree about whether the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately drive the world’s economy into a downturn, in part because the duration of the waterway’s effective closure remains murky. The outcome holds implications for the livelihoods of billions of people and the performance of companies big and small across the globe.

Some analysts said they fear the oil shortage will soon become so dire that crude prices could rise sharply driving up costs for an array of goods and hammering shoppers. The fallout could squeeze businesses and shrink growth, they said.

Others proved more optimistic, pointing to a smaller rise in oil prices than some feared and a recent track record of economic resilience in the face of trade wars and other turmoil. A worldwide downturn, they said, would require a much more prolonged closure of the strait.

“The longer this drags on, the costlier it becomes,” Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics, told ABC News.

Still, Sweet added: “Whether or not this will cause a global recession, it’s premature to say.”

The conflict, which began on Feb. 28, prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global supply of oil and natural gas.

The vast majority of oil that passes through the strait is bound for Asian markets. But since oil prices are set on a global market, prices have climbed for just about everyone as buyers chase fewer barrels of crude.

On Tuesday, Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, averting a resumption of wide hostilities, although the move left the strait under Iran’s effective control. The U.S., meanwhile, has mounted a blockade of Iranian ports in the strait, squeezing a key source of government funds derived from oil exports, while exacerbating the global petroleum shortage.

The Brent futures price, the benchmark index for global oil trading, registered at about $106 a barrel on Friday. That price stood about 50% higher than its pre-war level.

Higher oil and gasoline prices risk a pinch at the pump, as well as additional costs for just about every product delivered across the globe on trucks or ships that run on diesel fuel.

“Oil feeds into inflation, which reduces raw purchasing power — how much bang for their buck people have,” Sweet said. “That slows the economy.”

Still, oil prices remain below the highs reached after some previous economic shocks. In 2022, the price of Brent crude surged above $139 per barrel in March, just weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. gasoline prices shot up as high as $147 a barrel.

Some economic forecasts issued in recent weeks projected that global economic growth could escape the crisis relatively unscathed, as long as the war reaches a resolution in short order and oil prices avoid a steeper climb.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) last month predicted that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth would “remain broadly stable” at 2.9% in 2026. That forecast matched projections issued by the OECD in December, before the war.

The OECD touted strong tech investment and lower-than-expected tariffs, citing “carry-over from robust outcomes in 2025.”

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that GDP growth would register at a solid pace of 3.1% in 2026, noting that the global economy had withstood “higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year.”

The forecasts from the OECD and IMF worked under the assumption of a resolution to the conflict by the middle of this year, acknowledging the impact could worsen if it stretches on for longer.

Some economists, by contrast, consider the economic threat a more urgent risk.

Paul Krugman, an economics professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center and a former columnist at the New York Times, criticized the IMF projection on Substack on Monday, faulting the group for “seriously underestimating how badly the global economy could be hit.”

“In my view, a full-on global recession is more likely than not if the Strait remains closed for, say, another three months, which seems all too possible,” he said.

Rosier forecasts fail to adequately factor in the risk of a significant rise in oil prices over the near term, Krugman said, warning of widespread “demand destruction” as oil becomes increasingly scarce. Under such a scenario, a surge in oil prices would make it unaffordable for many buyers, forcing them to find alternatives or forgo energy use altogether.

Technical definitions vary about what constitutes a global recession, but the gist is a period of sluggish or negative economic growth. For the World Bank, a global recession amounts to a contraction in global per capita GDP; while the IMF considers GDP growth below 2% sufficient to warrant the label of a recession.

A six-month impasse in the strait could push global oil prices as high as $190 in August, Oxford Economics said in a blog post last month. That price shock would send global inflation to 7.7%, near its peak in 2022, the independent economic advisory firm said.

“But unlike 2022, when the global economy kept growing through the price shock, the severity of this disruption tips the world into outright contraction,” Oxford Economics added.

In addition to its optimistic baseline projection, the IMF issued a downbeat prediction in the event of a more severe disruption of oil markets that stretches into next year. Under those circumstances, the global economy “would come close to experiencing a recession,” the IMF said, noting that it defines a global recession as annual GDP growth below 2%.

Growth below 2% has happened four times since 1980, the group said.

Across the board, economists acknowledged a high degree of uncertainty as the Iran war unfolds. Plus, some said, the negative effects will be unevenly distributed, hitting harder in low-income countries as well as those who depend on oil that passes through the strait.

While the full extent of economic wreckage remains unknown, the prospect of an extended global impact is all but certain, Sweet said.

“This will take a long time to get back up to resembling anything close to normal,” he added.

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(NEW YORK) — Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders on Thursday voted to approve the Paramount Skydance takeover bid, completing a major step toward the $111 billion media mega-deal.

The offer from Paramount encompasses the HBO Max streaming service, the Warner Bros. film production company, and cable channels such as CNN. Assets owned by Paramount include CBS, Paramount Pictures and Comedy Central, among others.

Shareholders cast ballots “overwhelmingly” in support of the Paramount takeover, Warner Bros. Discovery said in a statement.

“Today’s stockholder approval is another key milestone toward completing this historic transaction that will deliver exceptional value to our stockholders. We will continue to work with Paramount to complete the remaining steps in this process that will create a leading, next-generation media and entertainment company,” Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav said in the statement.

Shares of Paramount fell nearly 5% in the minutes following the announcement on Thursday morning.

In December, Paramount launched a hostile takeover bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, just days after Netflix struck a deal to purchase a large part of the media giant.

The rival, multi-billion-dollar efforts to acquire streaming platform Warner Bros. Discovery threatened to upend the media industry and shape content viewed by hundreds of millions of people.

Paramount appeared to gain the upper hand in the bidding war in recent months. In February, the Warner Bros. Discovery board of directors voted unanimously to recommend approval of the Paramount takeover.

Under the terms of the deal, shareholders will receive $31 per share, which amounts to a 147% premium, Warner Bros. Discovery said in March.

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(WASHINGTON) — President Donald Trump’s selection to chair the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, testified in a Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday as his nomination faces bipartisan opposition centered on a federal criminal investigation into the central bank’s current leader.

The probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which focuses on alleged false testimony to Congress about an office renovation, threatens to derail or delay Warsh’s nomination.

Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, has rebuked the probe as a politically motivated effort to influence interest-rate policy.

In his opening remarks, Warsh voiced support for the independence of the Fed in its role setting interest rates. He used the term “monetary policy” to describe the central bank’s task of adjusting benchmark borrowing costs.

“Monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation’s interest,” said Warsh, a former Fed official.

Still, Warsh defended the right of public officials, including presidents, to voice their views on interest-rate policy, saying such comments do not infringe on Fed independence.

“Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners,” Warsh said.

Warsh said he welcomes collaboration with the White House and Congress on “non-monetary matters that are part of the Fed’s remit,” such as banking regulation.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the top Democrat on the committee, responded directly to Warsh’s defense of a president’s right to criticize the Fed, saying the federal investigation of Powell amounts to a pressure campaign that extends beyond public criticism of Fed policies.

“You said it’s perfectly fine for elected officials to state their views on interest rates. But that’s not what Donald Trump is doing,” Warren said, addressing Warsh.

The investigation of Powell, Warren added, is “designed to threaten all the members of the Fed to do Trump’s bidding.”

Warsh may become Trump’s “sock puppet” atop the Fed, Warren said.

By contrast, Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, praised Warsh, saying the Fed nominee would focus Fed policy on economic stewardship. During the tenure of President Joe Biden, Scott claimed, the Fed shifted some of its attention to the implications of issues like climate change.

“An independent Federal Reserve is essential to achieving its mission. That independence must be protected,” Scott said.

“Kevin Warsh is battle-tested and brings the necessary experience,” Scott added.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a potentially decisive vote on the committee, says he will not move to advance Warsh’s nomination until the Department of Justice resolves its unprecedented investigation into Powell.

Powell’s term as Fed chair ends on May 15, but he said last month he would stay in the position until Warsh is confirmed. For his part, Trump told Fox Business last week he would fire Powell if the current Fed chair attempts to remain in office past the end of his term.

Warsh, who previously worked on Wall Street and in the President George W. Bush administration, brings experience in finance and policymaking.

He is currently a fellow at a conservative think tank called the Hoover Institution, which is based at Stanford University. He also works as a partner at the Duquesne Family Office, an investment firm founded by billionaire and former hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller.

In 2006, Bush appointed Warsh to serve on the Fed’s Board of Governors, a top policymaking body that helps set the level of interest rates, where he served until 2011. His tenure overlapped with the 2008 financial crisis, during which he helped manage the central bank’s response under then-Chair Ben Bernanke.

The nomination of Warsh arrives at a delicate moment for the Fed, as it grapples with a challenging combination of elevated inflation and sluggish hiring. An interest-rate hike could help ease inflation but risks a further cooldown of the labor market, while a rate cut may boost hiring but threatens higher inflation.

During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate “hawk,” meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.

In recent months, however, Warsh has voiced support for lower interest rates, rebuking the Fed’s concern about inflation risk posed by a flurry of new tariffs issued last year.

Those remarks came before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, however, which sent inflation soaring last month.

The rapid acceleration of price increases could complicate interest rate policy at the Fed, which may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs as inflation climbs.

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(WASHINGTON) — President Donald Trump’s selection to chair the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, will testify in a Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday as his nomination faces bipartisan opposition centered on a federal criminal investigation into the central bank’s current leader.

The probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which focuses on alleged false testimony to Congress about an office renovation, threatens to derail or delay Warsh’s nomination.

Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017, has rebuked the probe as a politically motivated effort to influence interest-rate policy.

Warsh, a former Fed official, will likely face scrutiny from some lawmakers eager for assurance that he will set interest rates based on economic conditions, even if it puts him out of step with Trump’s preference for low interest rates.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a potentially decisive vote on the committee, says he will not move to advance the nomination until the Department of Justice resolves its unprecedented investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Powell’s term as Fed chair ends on May 15, but he said last month he would stay in the position until Warsh is confirmed. For his part, Trump told Fox Business last week he would fire Powell if the current Fed chair attempts to remain in office past the end of his term.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the top Democrat on the committee, voiced concern in a statement last week about what she considers Warsh’s perceived lack of independence, saying he may end up being “Donald Trump’s sock puppet.”

By contrast, Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has dismissed such worries in a post on X last week.

Under Warsh, Scott said, the Fed will “be focused solely on strengthening the American economy.”

Warsh, who previously worked on Wall Street and in the George W. Bush administration, brings experience in finance and policymaking.

He is currently a fellow at a conservative think tank called the Hoover Institution, which is based at Stanford University. He also works as a partner at the Duquesne Family Office, an investment firm founded by billionaire and former hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller.

In 2006, Bush appointed Warsh to serve on the Fed’s Board of Governors, a top policymaking body that helps set the level of interest rates, where he served until 2011. His tenure overlapped with the 2008 financial crisis, during which he helped manage the central bank’s response under then-Chair Ben Bernanke.

The nomination of Warsh arrives at a delicate moment for the Fed, as it grapples with a challenging combination of elevated inflation and sluggish hiring. An interest-rate hike could help ease inflation but risks a further cooldown of the labor market, while a rate cut may boost hiring but threatens higher inflation.

During his term as a Fed governor in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Warsh gained a reputation as an interest-rate “hawk,” meaning he generally preferred higher interest rates as a means of ensuring low and stable inflation.

In recent months, however, Warsh has voiced support for lower interest rates, rebuking the Fed’s concern about inflation risk posed by a flurry of new tariffs issued last year.

Those remarks came before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, however, which sent inflation soaring last month.

The rapid acceleration of price increases could complicate interest rate policy at the Fed, which may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs as inflation climbs.

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(NEW YORK) — Stocks closed slightly lower and oil prices rose on Monday as tensions mounted in the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on the ceasefire between the U.S and Iran a day before it’s set to expire.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 4 points, or 0.01%, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.2%.

U.S. Marines seized an Iran-flagged container ship in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday, according to CENTOM, just a day after two Indian ships came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

A potential second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran remained in doubt on Monday. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that Iran has not yet made any decision regarding additional talks.

West Texas Intermediate futures, the benchmark index for U.S. oil prices, climbed more than 5% on Monday, registering at about $88 a barrel. U.S. oil prices stand about 35% higher than before the war.

The escalating tensions appeared to undo a brief thaw on Friday, when a senior Iranian official declared the strait “completely open” for tanker traffic. Within minutes, President Donald Trump celebrated the announcement as a major breakthrough.

The glimmer of relief for the critical waterway sent stock prices soaring and oil prices plummeting on Friday.

Markets have swung dramatically over the weeks following the start of the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, as investors weathered a historic global oil shock and digested mixed signals from Trump.

Stocks have moved higher on a largely consistent basis in April, however, in response to an apparent willingness on the part of both sides to end fighting and negotiate a temporary truce.

The U.S. continues to mount a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, exerting pressure on Tehran by choking off a key source of revenue.

Last week, the commander of the Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of Iran’s armed forces said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is a “violation of the ceasefire,” in a statement published by the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

The war prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of the global supply of oil and natural gas.

The disruption amounted to the “most severe oil supply shock in history,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report last week. Oil and gasoline prices soared, prompting some economists to warn of a possible recession.

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(NEW YORK) — Stocks dipped and oil prices rose in early trading on Monday as tensions mounted in the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on the ceasefire between the U.S and Iran a day before it’s set to expire.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 25 points, or 0.07%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.1%.

U.S. Marines seized an Iran-flagged container ship in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday, according to CENTOM, just a day after two Indian ships came under fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

A potential second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran remained in doubt on Monday. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that Iran has not yet made any decision regarding additional talks.

West Texas Intermediate futures, the benchmark index for U.S. oil prices, climbed more than 4% on Monday, registering at about $87 a barrel.

The escalating tensions appeared to reverse a brief thaw on Friday, when a senior Iranian official declared the strait “completely open” for tanker traffic. Within minutes, President Donald Trump celebrated the announcement as a major breakthrough.

The glimmer of relief for the critical waterway sent stock prices soaring and oil prices plummeting on Friday.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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(NEW YORK) — Stocks surged and oil prices plunged in early trading on Friday after a senior Iranian official declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for commercial traffic for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1,005 points, or 2%, while the S&P 500 jumped 1.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq increased 1.5%.

In a post on X on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said: “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire.”

President Donald Trump appeared to confirm the reopening of the strait in a message posted on social media on Friday morning.

“IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE,” Trump said.

West Texas Intermediate futures, the benchmark index for U.S. oil prices, plunged more than 10%, registering at about $83 a barrel. The reading marked the index’s lowest level since mid-March.

Even so, U.S. oil prices remain about 30% higher than pre-war levels.

The U.S.-Israeli war prompted Iran’s effective closure of the strait, a critical waterway that facilitates the transport of 20 million barrels of oil per day, or about one-fifth of the global supply.

The move set off the “most severe oil supply shock in history,” the International Energy Agency said in a report this week. Oil prices notched their largest one-month rise ever in March, the Paris-based group said.

Gasoline prices in the U.S. registered at $4.07 on average per gallon on Friday, standing more than 30% higher than before the war, AAA data showed.

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(NEW YORK) — The United States continued to mount a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, exerting financial pressure on Tehran while at the same time choking off a source of oil amid a historic global shortage.

The move comes as Americans grapple with a surge in gasoline prices that threatens to eat away at household budgets and slow the economy.

Gasoline prices in the U.S. registered at $4.10 on average per gallon on Wednesday, standing about 35% higher than before the war, AAA data showed.

The blockade risks higher prices at the pump since oil trades on a global market, meaning a loss of supply in the Middle East could raise prices for Americans, some analysts said.

But, they added, the strategy may hasten a resolution of the war or reassure non-Iranian tankers otherwise hesitant to travel the strait, ultimately alleviating the oil shock and pushing down gas prices.

“This is an economic game of chicken,” Tyler Schipper, a professor of economics at the University of St. Thomas, told ABC News.

Ten vessels have been turned around at the Strait of Hormuz during the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade, complying with U.S. orders, according to U.S. Central Command.

On Wednesday, the commander of the Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of Iran’s armed forces said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports is a “violation of the ceasefire,” in a statement published by the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

The war prompted Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that facilitates the transport of 20 million barrels of oil per day, or about one-fifth of the global supply.

Iran continued to export nearly 2 million barrels of oil each day through the strait, blunting some of the supply loss, according to energy data firm Kpler.

Still, in March, oil prices notched their largest one-month gain ever, the International Energy Agency said in a new report on Tuesday.

The potential loss of Iranian oil exports amid the blockade could deepen the supply shock and raise gasoline prices further, some analysts said.

“The move toward a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is compounding global supply concerns and risks further disrupting flows,” GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan said in a post on X on Monday.

Car owners, De Haan added, “should prepare for another round of price increases.”

Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, echoed such concern.

“It’s unclear to me how this moves to quickly solve the problem that vessels aren’t transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” Miller told ABC News. “Every day this continues, it gets worse and worse and worse.”

Price hikes have not come to pass over the initial days of the blockade, however.

West Texas Intermediate futures price, the benchmark index for U.S. trading, clocked in at about $92 a barrel on Wednesday, marking a nearly 10% drop since the blockade began at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday.

Even so, U.S. oil prices remain about 40% higher than pre-war levels.

The national average price of a gallon of gas as of Wednesday stood 1.4% lower than a week earlier.

The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran entered its second week, appearing to boost hopes of a resolution to the war.

President Donald Trump reiterated his desire to wind down the conflict, meanwhile, saying the war is “very close to over” in a portion of an interview with Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo that aired on Tuesday.

Rather than restrict oil supply, the U.S. blockade could ultimately add crude to the market if the naval presence reassures non-Iranian ships otherwise unwilling to sail through the strait, Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, told ABC News.

“For countries other than Iran, does the blockade give them more trust for sending oil through the strait?” Pappalarado said. “If other countries start to gain confidence, you could see other shipments pick up for non-Iranian vessels pushing through the strait, which would help alleviate upward pressure on the price.”

As of Monday, tanker traffic remained well below pre-war levels after the blockade had taken effect, Kpler said in a post on X. Six vessels sailed through the strait on Monday, Kpler said, marking a decline from 14 vessels a day prior.

The conditions in the strait remain in flux, some analysts said, leaving a wide range of possible outcomes.

“There’s still tremendous uncertainty,” Miller said.

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(NEW YORK) — Live Nation illegally monopolized the market for tickets, protecting its position through pressure and leverage, jurors in Manhattan federal court found Wednesday.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

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