(NEW YORK) — Instagram CEO Adam Mosseri doubled down on recent changes to the app Tuesday, despite backlash from scores of users, including Kylie Jenner and Kim Kardashian – two of Instagram’s most prominent users.
In a video posted to social media Tuesday morning, Mosseri said the company is “experimenting with a lot of different changes to the app, and so we’re hearing a lot of complaints from all of you.”
On Monday, Jenner, who has 361 million Instagram followers, and Kardashian, with 326 million Instagram followers, shared a post from photographer “@Illumitati” urging the platform to stop “trying to be tiktok,” and to “Make Instagram Instagram Again.”
“History shows that when a Kardashian or a Jenner talks about your platform, you should probably listen,” Jack Appleby, author of Morning Brew’s “Future Social” newsletter, told ABC Audio.
The complaints come as the company – launched in 2010 as primarily a photo-sharing app – continues to push new types of posts to the app’s main feed, including Reels videos from recommended creators. Reels, introduced in 2020, mimics TikTok’s app, presenting users with a vertical scrolling feed of videos. Appleby said Reels are often from accounts recommended by Instagram – not from accounts users themselves follow – and this changes the app’s “value proposition.”
“It was a friend-to-friend network. Now it is a – I am seeing content from people I did not elect to follow, and that effects how users view the platform,” he said.
Instagram may have good reason to worry about what the stars of “Keeping Up With The Kardashians” have to say. In 2018, Kylie Jenner tweeted that she was no longer using Snapchat — sending shares of the app plunging 7% and erasing over $1 billion of value, Bloomberg reported at the time.
Instagram’s parent company, Meta, which also owns Facebook and WhatsApp, is set to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.
Despite the backlash, Mosseri said his company remains committed to video content.
“I got to be honest, I do believe that more and more of Instagram is going to become video over time,” Mosseri said in the video.
“If you look at what people share on Instagram, that’s shifting more and more to video over time. If you look at what people like and consume and view on Instagram, that’s also shifting more and more to video over time – even when we stop changing anything. So we’re going to have to lean into that shift.”
“The reality is that Instagram is going to be able to make more money based on more video content than static or photo content,” said Appleby. “It’s really that simple.”
Whether that explanation will be enough to change Instagrammers’ feelings about the new features remains to be seen.
“I just want to see cute pictures of my friends,” the original post shared by Jenner and Kardashian goes on to read. “Sincerely, everyone.”
(NEW YORK) — Travelers reeling from a summer of hectic travel — with busy airports, scores of cancellations and soaring airline fees — might see some relief in the coming months, as fall approaches.
Travel experts expect flight prices to drop as the summer months wane, with some predicting domestic round-trip ticket prices could drop below $300 on average this fall.
“Airfares really did shoot up in the spring. [They] went up 12% in March, 19% in April, another 12% in May, it wasn’t just your imagination,” Scott Keyes, the founder of Scott’s Cheap Flights, told ABC News. “But the good news: In the last inflation report, airfare actually fell 2%, and I think it’s going to fall even further in the next one.”
According to data from travel booking platform Hopper, average domestic ticket prices could fall almost $150 in the coming months. The average price of a domestic roundtrip flight right now is about $348, but come mid-September, that average could fall to about $298.
For example, Hopper estimates at a round-trip ticket from New York to Los Angeles right now would cost $475, but in mid-September, it is only expected to cost $326.
And these deals can be found for international travelers, too. Scott’s Cheap Flights says that a round-trip fare from Chicago to Paris now is almost three times more expensive than the $489 you would pay in October.
Keyes recommends that travelers looking to get those prices book soon, because one to three months before your trip is the “Goldilocks window” for scoring good deals.
“If you hold off until the final couple of weeks before your trip, chances are you’re going to be stuck with some pretty expensive flights,” Keyes said. “But if you book a month in advance, two months in advance, ideally even three months in advance, [you’re] much more likely to see one of those great deals.”
Another way to get the best deal according to Keyes is to be flexible with your travel plans. He says to always check other airports close to your destination and be flexible with days you travel.
Hopper also recommends that you check different carriers for good deals and to book early in the day in case of cancellations or delays.
ABC News’ Amanda Maile contributed to this report.
(WASHINGTON) — Leading gun manufacturing executives testified Wednesday morning before a House panel investigating the role of the firearms industry in the nation’s high rates of gun violence, maintaining that Americans — not firearms — cause mass shootings.
The hearing, beginning at 10 a.m. ET and helmed by House Oversight Committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney, a New York Democrat, featured two top CEOs ahead of the consideration of legislation that would target the sale of semiautomatic weapons, a move that many gun rights supporters and Republicans oppose as unconstitutional.
Marty Daniel, CEO of Daniel Defense, said that he was at the hearing voluntarily but was “concerned” that the implied purpose of the hearing was to vilify and blame rifles for recent deadly shootings in Uvalde, Texas; Highland Park, Illinois; and Buffalo, New York, among others.
Two months ago, the Uvalde gunman used a Daniel Defense weapon to kill 19 students and two teachers at an elementary school.
Rep. Maloney asked Daniel if he had responsibility for the Texas shooting.
“Many Americans, myself included, have witnessed an erosion of personal responsibility in our country and in our culture. Mass shootings are all but what unheard of just a few decades ago,” Daniel said. “So what changed? Not the firearms. They are substantially the same as those manufactured over 100 years ago. I believe our nation’s response needs to focus not on the type of gun but on the type of persons who are likely to commit mass shootings.”
Maloney spoke with ABC News on Tuesday about the context of the hearing. She said it should be a “wakeup call” for Congress to act on gun reform “to hold these gun manufacturers accountable for the deadly weapons that they’re manufacturing that are killing innocent Americans.”
“Most industries have a responsibility for their products. We have liability on our cars. Every time there’s a car wreck, we study it. We should do the same thing with guns. We should have liability on guns. They’re far more dangerous than cars,” Maloney told “GMA3.”
Daniel and Christopher Killroy, president and CEO of Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc., were confirmed witnesses ahead of the hearing.
Maloney told ABC News that a representative for a third gun manufacturer, President Mark P. Smith of Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc., was invited to the hearing. Smith is not confirmed to attend.
“I would say, ‘We have invited three manufacturers — CEOs — [and] two have accepted,'” Maloney said.
“One is dodging us and not responding to our requests for documents,” she contended. “And we intend to hold them accountable eventually in some form.”
The oversight committee sent letters on May 26 to Smith & Wesson, Daniel Defense and Sturm, among others, following mass shootings in Buffalo, New York, and Uvalde, Texas.
The letters sought further information on the companies’ sale and marketing of assault-style semiautomatic rifles and similar firearms, “including revenue and profit information, internal data on deaths or injuries caused by firearms they manufacture, and marketing and promotional materials.”
On July 7, following the Fourth of July shooting in Highland Park, Illinois, Maloney sent additional letters to the CEOs of the three top gun manufacturers, requesting their appearance at Wednesday’s hearing.
Maloney’s request for the hearing with gun executives came ahead of the committee’s June 8 hearing with Uvalde and Buffalo survivors and victims’ relatives.
President Joe Biden a month ago signed into law a bipartisan gun safety package, which did not include the weapons ban he sought. House Democrats are pushing for more reforms.
Maloney told ABC News that she believed the additional legislation “will make America safer for our citizens.”
(WASHINGTON) — Economists expect a major rate hike from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the latest in a series of borrowing cost increases as the central bank tries to slash near-historic inflation while avoiding a recession.
The Fed will likely raise the benchmark interest rate 0.75%, which would repeat an identical hike instituted by the central bank last month, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg.
The significant rate hike, which until last month had not been matched since 1994, follows data released earlier this month showing that prices jumped a staggering 9.1% in June. That inflation rate, last seen more than four decades ago, put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates.
An increase to the benchmark interest rate raises borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which in theory should slash inflation by slowing the economy and eating away at demand. That means borrowers will face higher costs for everything from car loans to credit card debt to mortgages. But the approach risks pushing the economy into a recession.
The latest rate hike is set to arrive as mixed economic data shows a country buoyed by robust hiring and retail sales, despite several rate hikes so far this year meant to slow economic activity. The U.S. saw stronger than expected job growth in June, as the economy added 372,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.
Other indicators, however, such as flagging consumer confidence and slowing home sales, suggest the economy has begun to weaken.
U.S. consumer confidence fell this month to a level not seen for one-and-a-half years, according to a closely followed Conference Board survey released on Tuesday. Meanwhile, in June, existing home sales plummeted 5.4% compared with the month prior — the fifth straight month of decline, according to data released last week by the National Association of Realtors.
If the Fed raises interest rates too quickly, an abrupt economic slowdown could send the economy into a downturn, Andrew Levin, a former Fed economist and a professor at Dartmouth College, told ABC News.
“There are definitely some indicators now that the economy is slowing,” he said.
“The question for the Fed is: Are we really heading into a recession?” he added. “If so, is that going to slow the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation?”
The anticipated 0.75% rate hike would raise the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%.
On Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve announcement, a federal agency will release gross domestic product data that shows whether the U.S. economy grew or contracted over the three-month period ending in June.
Because the economy shrank at an annual rate of 1.4% over the first three months of the year, a contraction in the second three-month period would establish two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, which many consider a shorthand benchmark for a recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, a research organization seen as an authority on measuring economic performance, uses a more complicated definition that takes into account several indicators. This definition determines whether a downturn is formally designated as a recession, since the NBER is the official arbiter on the subject.
(ST. LOUIS) — Nearly 2,500 Boeing workers are set to go on strike next month after voting down a union contract on Sunday.
Workers at three St. Louis-area plants will begin the strike on Aug. 1 after rejecting an offer that insufficiently compensated workers through its retirement plan, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, or IAMAW, told ABC News.
The contract included a $2 per hour increase in the base wage for all employees, which equates to an average 7.2% wage hike, Boeing said. Workers at the three St. Louis-area facilities make an average of $29.42 per hour, the union said.
The contract would also have improved the pace at which workers move up the wage scale and a deal would’ve included a $3,000 cash bonus for each worker if it had been ratified by Sunday, the company said.
In 2014, Boeing stopped offering a traditional pension plan for new hires, replacing it with a 401(k) that fails to adequately compensate workers, Jody Bennett, chief of staff of the IAMAW Aerospace Department, told ABC News.
“We cannot accept a contract that is not fair and equitable, as this company continues to make billions of dollars each year off the backs of our hardworking members,” IAMAW said in a statement.
“Boeing previously took away a pension from our members, and now the company is unwilling to adequately compensate our members’ 401(k) plan. We will not allow this company to put our members’ hard-earned retirements in jeopardy,” the union added.
The 401(k) plan offered in the contract features a dollar-for-dollar company match on 10% of a worker’s pay, Bennett said.
Plus, for the remainder of this year, the company will automatically put an amount equivalent to 4% of a worker’s pay into the 401(k), Bennett said. That automatic 401(k) investment from the company drops to 2% in 2023 and 2024 and is eliminated after 2024, he added.
“This is about that takeaway,” Bennett said. “We can’t recommend a takeaway.”
In a statement, Boeing lamented the union’s rejection of the contract.
“We are disappointed with Sunday’s vote to reject a strong, highly competitive offer,” the company said. “We are activating our contingency plan to support continuity of operations in the event of a strike.”
Boeing reported a loss of $1.2 billion in the first quarter of this year. The company brought in $62.2 billion revenue in 2021 after a resurgence in sales of its 737 MAX, which was grounded in 2019 after two crashes left 346 people dead. The Federal Aviation Agency lifted the grounding order in November 2020.
On Wednesday, the company will release earnings results for the second quarter.
“While it may be Boeing’s name that goes on those airplanes, it’s these people that do the work to make those airplanes,” IAMAW’s Bennett said.
(NEW YORK) — Family Dollar shoppers should check their medicine cabinets and bathrooms for any recently recalled products.
The variety dollar store chain issued a voluntary recall of hundreds of products from toothpaste and lip balm to deodorant and lotions due to them being stored incorrectly.
The products were “stored and inadvertently shipped” to some stores from around May 1 through June 10, and were “stored outside of labeled temperature requirements,” the U.S. Food and Drug Administration stated.
Family Dollar said it has not received any consumer complaints or reports of illness related to this recall.
“Family Dollar has notified its affected stores asking them to check their stock immediately and to quarantine and discontinue the sale of any affected product,” the FDA said in the recall. “Customers that may have bought affected product may return such product to the Family Dollar store where they were purchased without receipt. This recall does not apply to Delaware, Alaska, Hawaii as no Family Dollar stores in Delaware received any products subject to this recall and Family Dollar does not have any stores in Alaska or Hawaii.”
Any questions can be directed to Family Dollar Customer Service at 844-636-7687 between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. ET.
The FDA urged customers to contact a health care provider if they experience any problems that may be related to using these products.
“Adverse reactions or quality problems experienced with the use of this product may be reported to the FDA’s MedWatch Adverse Event Reporting program either online, by regular mail or by fax,” the agency said.
(NEW YORK) — From books to clothing to electronics, back-to-school shopping is around the corner for many families.
According to new survey data from the National Retail Federation, American families are expected to spend over $860 this year on school supplies. But with inflation hitting hard, parents are likely looking for a break wherever they can.
“We feel the squeeze like everybody else,” Lindsay Chamberlin, a mother of three in Florida, told Good Morning America. “Everything seems to be going up, but really the back-to-school deals have been really good.”
Seventeen states are now offering tax-free holidays for school supplies, cutting sales tax ahead of the start of school. In Florida, where many schools begin in August, the sales tax holiday kicks off Monday and runs until Aug. 7.
“This week is my Olympics,” Chamberlin said. “The savings really stack up, definitely with the tax advantage in the stores stacking their sales on top of it. We’ll definitely be finishing up our shopping by Friday.”
Which states are offering tax-free holidays for back-to-school supplies in 2022?
Alabama (already passed; ran from July 15-17)
Arkansas (Aug. 6-7)
Connecticut (Aug. 21-27)
Florida (July 25-Aug. 7)
Iowa (Aug. 5-6)
Maryland (Aug. 14-20)
Massachusetts (Aug. 13-14)
Mississippi (July 29-30)
Missouri (Aug. 5-7)
New Mexico (Aug. 5-7)
Ohio (Aug. 5-6)
Oklahoma (Aug. 5-7; only clothing items are exempt from sales tax)
South Carolina (Aug. 5-7)
Tennessee (July 29-31)
Texas (Aug. 5-7)
Virginia (Aug. 5-7)
West Virginia (Aug. 5-8)
In addition, Illinois is offering a reduced sales tax of 1.25% on school supplies from Aug. 5 to 14.
For other ways to save, check cash-back apps such as Ibotta and Rakuten for deals and for computers and electronics, look for refurbished models, buy from certified sellers, check return policies and comparison shop.
The estimated jackpot for Friday night’s Mega Millions drawing is now $660 million — making it the game’s third-largest prize ever.
At that amount, Friday’s jackpot would be the ninth-largest in U.S. history, including top Powerball winners.
The Mega Millions jackpot was last won on April 15, with a winning ticket in Tennessee claiming $20 million.
There have been no jackpot winners in the 27 consecutive drawings since then, with the grand prize growing from $20 million to an estimated $555 million as of Tuesday. Interest in the lotto has driven Friday’s grand prize up to an estimated $660 million, pre-tax.
The winner could choose to be paid out in one immediate payment and then 29 annual payments. Or, the lump-sum cash option for the drawing is estimated to be $376.9 million.
The largest jackpots in the history of the game were $1.537 billion, won in South Carolina in 2018, and $1.05 billion, won in Michigan in 2021.
The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 302,575,350, according to the lottery game.
Mega Millions is played in 45 states, as well as Washington, D.C., and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tickets cost $2.
(NEW YORK) — It’s been a pressure cooker of a summer for economies in both the U.S. and Europe, and experts say the extreme heat is making it increasingly difficult for workers to do their jobs — especially those who work outdoors.
A historic and deadly heat wave has been scorching western Europe, killing more than 1,000 people in Spain and Portugal and displacing thousands in France, Greece and Italy. In Britain and Germany, the excessive heat is unprecedented. At the same time, much of the U.S. is baking under oppressive heat, as temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma topped 113 degrees.
A video this week of a UPS delivery driver collapsing in the triple-digit heat of Scottsdale, Arizona, went viral. A UPS spokesperson confirmed the incident in a statement to Phoenix ABC affiliate KNXV-TV, saying in part: “We appreciate the concern for our employee and can report that he is fine… Our employee used his training to be aware of his situation and contact his manager for assistance, who immediately provided assistance.”
Worker productivity losses due to heat cost the U.S. an estimated $100 billion a year, according to a report by the Washington, D.C.-based think tank Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center. As days of extreme heat become more frequent, the report claims that figure is projected to double to $200 billion by 2030, or about 0.5% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average temperatures of several major U.S. cities have increased over the last 120 years, with Los Angeles County getting 3.4 degrees hotter and New York County experiencing a rise of 3.2 degrees in the average temperature. In Dallas County, Texas, the average temperature rose 1.2 degrees in the past 60 years, according to NOAA, and experts say the Southeast and Midwest are projected to face the highest economic toll from extreme heat.
Texas loses an average of $30 billion a year due to its climate and the large number of people working outdoors, according to the think-tank’s report. That number is projected to jump to $110 billion a year by 2050, amounting to 2.5% of Texas’ total economic output.
That same report found that industries most affected by extreme heat are construction and agriculture, where workers are most exposed to the elements. By 2050, construction is projected to lose 3.5% of its total annual economic activity to heat, or $1.2 billion per year, while agriculture is estimated to lose 3.7%, or nearly $131 million a year.
President Joe Biden this week announced new executive steps to combat climate change but fell short of declaring a climate emergency. The move comes after a major legislative package with more than $300 billion in clean-energy tax breaks stalled on Capitol Hill.
“Since Congress is not acting as it should… This is an emergency and I will look at it that way,” Biden said.
The initiatives include $2.3 billion in funding for a program that helps communities prepare for disasters by expanding flood control and retrofitting buildings, as well as funding to help low-income families cover heating and cooling costs.
Americans’ electric bills are expected to increase by 20% to an average of $540 for this summer, compared to the same period last year, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. It comes at a time when consumers are already battling the highest inflation in 40 years with soaring prices for food, gas and other essentials.
But not all of that increase in energy bills is due to a rise in usage. The rise is partly fueled by a jump in the price of natural gas, which is used to generate electricity. Natural gas prices have surged this year following a production slump during the pandemic, as well as shortages due to the war in Ukraine.
Europe’s heat wave is adding pressure to the continent’s energy crunch. Electricity prices are already on the rise as Russia chokes off Europe’s natural gas supply. One of Germany’s largest power producers, Uniper, is asking for a government bailout after higher energy prices and rising demand for power amid soaring temperatures depleted the company’s cash.
The mercury reached a record 104 F in the U.K. this week, a country not accustomed to such extreme temperatures. The average temperature in the U.K. in July is 75 F so far, and most homes and businesses don’t have air conditioners. The Met Office, the country’s national weather service, warned that the heat will have “widespread impacts on people and infrastructure.” Luton Airport, north of London, suspended flights Monday after record heat caused a surface defect on the runway, while the country’s main rail network urged people to travel only if “absolutely necessary.”
Analysts say the sweltering heat comes at the height of tourism season for Europe and threatens foot traffic at retailers as shoppers choose to stay indoors.
Record high temperatures and wildfires in France, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy, which is suffering through one of its worst droughts on record, are destroying crops, pushing already high food prices even higher. More than half of the 27 countries in the European Union now face the threat of drought, made worse by extreme heat, according to a report from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.
According to a study last year by European economists and climate experts published in the journal Nature Communications, heat waves on average had lowered overall annual economic growth across Europe by as much as 0.5% in the past decade.
Italian Authorities in the northern region of Lombardy said 70% of crops are gone in the Po River delta and warn that water supplies for agriculture could run out by the end of July. The Italian farmers’ association, Coldiretti, said that each fire costs Italians about $25,000 an acre to rebuild, and the group estimates that wheat production in Italy will decline by 15% because of an increase in production costs and the drought.
“We’re working carefully, alongside different associations,” Lombardy President Attilio Fontana told a press conference in Milan on Tuesday. “Unfortunately, the only thing we can hope for is that it starts to rain again.”
(NEW YORK) — As recession forecasts have grown dire in recent months, they’ve faced one complication: Strong economic data.
The U.S. showed robust job growth last month, defying expectations of a slowdown and keeping the unemployment rate at a near-historic low of 3.6%. Meanwhile, retail spending, a key indicator of economic health that reflects consumer appetite, rose 1% in June, outpacing gloomier predictions — even if some of that increase can be attributed to rising prices due to inflation.
The positive signs have fueled caution about the rush to pessimism.
“While sentiment has shifted, little of the data I see tells me the U.S. is on the cusp of a recession,” Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said during the company’s earnings call on Friday.
The trend raises the question of whether the U.S. could avoid a recession altogether.
In a sense, the answer is an unequivocal no, economists told ABC News. Ultimately, a recession is inevitable, since it makes up a natural part of an economic cycle marked by alternating periods of growth and contraction.
But the continued strength of the economy meaningfully challenges expectations that a recession will come to pass anytime soon, as robust hiring and healthy household and business balance sheets provide a buffer for a potential slowdown, they added. One economist, Jeremy Swartz of Credit Suisse, said it’s more likely that the economy will avoid a recession right now than undergo one.
Inflation
A stark imbalance between supply and demand poses a daunting challenge over the mid- and long-term, some less-optimistic economists said. In light of that imbalance, economic strength becomes a liability, since a supply bottleneck can’t keep up with hiring and spending, resulting in crippling inflation.
Safely navigating that predicament over the coming years — without triggering a recession — will require an unlikely but possible series of events, Aneta Markowska, chief economist at New York City-based financial services company Jefferies, told ABC News..
“There’s a consensus view right now that a recession is imminent — that, I think, is premature,” Markowska said. “We have an economy that’s already overheated, like a plane that has overshot the runway, which makes it incredibly difficult to land it softly. There’s certainly a scenario for how we could achieve that. But I think that scenario involves a lot of things going very, very well.”
Supply and demand
At the crux of current economic risk stands a glaring asymmetry between traditional supply and demand, according to Markowska and Lindsey Piegza, the chief economist at Stifel, a St. Louis-based investment bank.
A surge in demand followed a pandemic-induced flood of economic stimulus that combined with a widespread shift toward goods instead of services, as hundreds of millions across the globe facing lockdowns replaced restaurant expenditures with couches and exercise bikes. Meanwhile, that stimulus brought about a speedy economic recovery from the March 2020 downturn, triggering a hiring blitz.
But the surge in demand for goods and labor far outpaced supply, as COVID-related bottlenecks slowed delivery times and infection fears kept workers on the sidelines. In turn, prices and wages skyrocketed, ultimately prompting sky-high inflation that has not only endured for many months but gotten worse, Markowska and Piegza said.
The consumer price index, or CPI, stood at 9.1% last month, a significant increase from 8.6% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is the largest 12-month increase since December 1981.
To avert a recession, the U.S. will need to slow demand while increasing supply, in turn bringing the two into balance, Markowska and Piegza said. But both sides of that task pose thorny problems, they added.
Interest rates
To weaken demand, the Federal Reserve has embarked on a series of hikes to its benchmark interest rate, which raises borrowing costs for consumers and businesses alike. That should slow the economy and slash demand.
Since U.S. households have stockpiled savings and the economy has accumulated millions more job openings than job seekers, in theory, the rate hikes could weaken the high demand without harming economic output, Markowska, the chief economist at Jefferies, said.
“The idea is that we can destroy that excess demand without actually destroying activity,” she said.
In reality, the task is much more difficult, Markowska said. The persistently strong economic conditions will prompt the Fed to take more aggressive action, which increases the risk of an abrupt economic slowdown that brings about a recession, she explained. For instance, in order to slow down a hot economy enough that healthy companies will abandon hiring and ease labor demand, Fed actions will likely trigger significant layoffs at other companies in a more precarious financial position, which could bring about a decline in demand that goes too far and pushes the economy toward a recession, she added.
Policymakers
Swartz, the economist at Credit Suisse, contested the view that strong economic performance raises the risk of recession. Instead, positive indicators like robust hiring show that the economy is healthier than many people think, he said.
“It’s not fully a situation where good news is bad news and bad news is good news,” he said. “All things being equal, we still like to see stronger growth.”
While demand weakens, supply will need to grow, economists said. That will require a set of outcomes that extends well beyond the control of U.S. economic policymakers, Piegza, the chief economist at Stifel, said. In order to relieve COVID-induced supply bottlenecks, countries like China will need to relax ongoing lockdowns. Moreover, a fix for global oil and agricultural shortages depends on an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, Piegza said.
“It’s out of the Fed’s control and the federal government’s,” she said. “You would need the dominos to line up with a certain level of precision.”
“That scenario has a very low probability but it’s not a zero probability,” she added.
While possible, the rosy outcome is far less likely than a downturn, Piegza said.
“Essentially, there’s a good chance, or a heightened probability, of a recession by the end of the year,” she said.
Markowska offered a slightly more optimistic forecast for the chances of a recession.
“In the next six months, I’d put it at 10%; in the next 12 months, I’d put it at 30% or 40%; in the next 24 months, I’d put it at 70%,” she said.
But she isn’t ruling out the possibility that the U.S. will avoid a recession altogether.
“We basically have to get really lucky,” she said.
Swartz, the economist at Credit Suisse who thinks the U.S. is more likely to avoid a recession than experience one, said the overall negative mood about the economy risks hurting consumer and business sentiment while helping induce a recession.
One place where that gloomy outlook can be found is on Wall Street, which saw a historic plunge in the stock market over the first half of the year. The S&P 500 — a popular index to which many 401(k) accounts are pegged — plummeted 20.6%, marking its worst first-half performance of any year since 1970.
“The general mood is obviously extremely poor,” he said. “There’s a question of whether that can become self-fulfilling.”
“That’s something we’re concerned about and contributes to heightened recession risk,” he added. “But there’s nothing automatic about it.”
