(NEW YORK) — Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevailing theory was that if someone was infected with the virus, they were immune — at least for a while.

But a growing number of Americans seem to be contracting the virus more than once.

A recent ABC News analysis of state data found that, as of June 8, there have been more than 1.6 million reinfections across 24 states, but experts say the number is likely much higher.

“These are not the real numbers because many people are not reporting cases,” Dr. Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist with the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, told ABC News.

The latest variant, BA.5, has become the dominant strain in the U.S., making up more than 65% of all COVID-19 cases as of Wednesday, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

What’s more, studies have suggested that vaccines and previous infection do not offer as much protection against BA.5 compared to past variants.

However, there is little evidence to suggest that BA.5 causes more serious disease or is more deadly than previous variants.

Experts say the risk of reinfection has also increased due to the sheer number of Americans who’ve had a first infection and the dropping of mitigation measures, like mask-wearing, across the country.

Risk of reinfection was different pre-omicron

Before the omicron variant arrived in the U.S., experts said reinfection was far less likely.

“I would say that before the omicron variant, it was pretty rare for me to see reinfection,” Dr. Shira Doron, an infectious disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center in Boston, told ABC News. “Sometimes we would see someone who appeared to have reinfection and we’d repeat the test and it turned out that the new test was a false positive.

“And PCR tests can stay positive for months so sometimes clinicians would say a patient had reinfection, but it was a persistent positive from their infection a few months earlier,” Doron said.

In fact, an April 2021 study from England published in The Lancet found that people with a previous history of COVID-19 infection were 84% less likely to be reinfected.

But that changed post-omicron. A March 2022 study from South Africa found an increased risk of reinfection with the emergence of omicron, BA.1, due to the variant’s “marked ability to evade immunity from prior infection.”

This has also rung true for the original omicron variant’s several offshoots, including BA.5.

“There are two things going for BA.5,” Mokdad said. “One is, it evades protection from vaccines and previous infection due to its mutation and it’s a super-spreader.”

“When you look at BA.5 specifically, your antibodies from BA.1 and BA.2 are not great at neutralizing BA.5,” Doron added.

However, she did point to a preprint study from researchers in Qatar, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, suggesting effectiveness from infection with pre-omicron strains was only about 15.1-28.3% effective against reinfection with omicron.

“I still believe from what I’ve seen that if you were infected with omicron — sure, you can get reinfected — but it’s much less likely you will” than if you were previously infected with delta, Doron said.

More people infected means higher chance of reinfection

Experts told ABC News the risk of reinfection hasn’t just risen because of the emergence of the BA.5 variant. It’s also because the total number of overall infections has increased.

In April, a CDC analysis estimated 58% of all Americans had antibodies indicating a prior COVID infection, meaning people never sickened by the virus are in the minority.

Doron said that by the nature of more people infected, especially two-and-a-half years into the pandemic, it means there will be more reinfections as well.

“In the pre-omicron era, the proportion of people who were infected is smaller than the proportion today, which is the majority of people,” Doron said. “As you increase the proportion of people who have been infected, you’re going to — by definition — increase the proportion of reinfections.”

People have changed their behaviors

Mokdad said another reason that the risk of reinfection is higher is because people’s behaviors have changed.

He said after the initial omicron wave in winter 2021-22, most Americans stopped wearing masks indoors and all states lifted their remaining mitigation measures.

The IHME, where Mokdad works, has tracked mask use over time and as of May 30, 2022 — the latest date for which data is available — found that just 18% of Americans say they always wear a mask in public. At the same time one year ago, that figure was 44%.

“Mask-wearing is the lowest since we started tracking it,” he said. “Even on planes, people don’t wear them. And now you have an invasive and an immune-escape variant and people not wearing a mask indoors.”

He said previous waves from different COVID strains — including alpha, delta and the original omicron variant — were likely mitigated due to a higher percentage of the public wearing masks in indoor spaces.

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(WASHINGTON) — Americans will likely have one more COVID-19 vaccine to choose from after the Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization for Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine Wednesday.

The two-shot vaccine was authorized for use in people 18 years and older.

Novavax is the fourth COVID-19 vaccine to receive emergency use authorization in the U.S. by the FDA. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now expected to review data on the vaccine before providing its recommendation for authorization.

“Authorizing an additional COVID-19 vaccine expands the available vaccine options for the prevention of COVID-19, including the most severe outcomes that can occur such as hospitalization and death,” FDA Commissioner Dr. Robert M. Califf said in a statement on Wednesday. “Today’s authorization offers adults in the United States who have not yet received a COVID-19 vaccine another option that meets the FDA’s rigorous standards for safety, effectiveness and manufacturing quality needed to support emergency use authorization.”

The FDA said it had determined that the Novavax vaccine met the criteria for authorization, and that the data showed that the potential benefits of the vaccine outweighed any potential risks.

“The American public can trust that this vaccine, like all vaccines that are used in the United States, has undergone the FDA’s rigorous and comprehensive scientific and regulatory review,” said Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research.

Some health experts have suggested that some hesitant Americans may be more inclined to get the Novavax vaccine, as it is based on a more traditional protein-based technology, one already used for the flu vaccine and other shots, while Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine platforms use more modern genetic technology.

The company applauded the agency’s decision to authorize the vaccine for emergency use.

“Today’s FDA emergency use authorization of our COVID-19 vaccine provides the U.S. with access to the first protein-based COVID-19 vaccine,” Stanley C. Erck, president and chief executive officer of Novavax, said in a statement. “This authorization reflects the strength of our COVID-19 vaccine’s efficacy and safety data, and it underscores the critical need to offer another vaccine option for the U.S. population while the pandemic continues.”

On Monday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced that the Biden administration had secured 3.2 million doses of Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine will be made available for free to U.S. states and jurisdictions.

If the CDC signs off on use of the vaccine, the shots could be made available shortly thereafter.

To date, approximately two-thirds of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to federal data. However, more than 26.5 million American adults remain completely unvaccinated.

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(NEW YORK) — For the first time since May, COVID-19-related hospital admissions are forecasted to increase again in the U.S., as highly infectious omicron subvariants continue to spread, according to updated forecasting models used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The models show that nearly 40 states and territories are currently projected to see increases in new hospitalizations over the next two weeks. States in the South, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, are expected to see the greatest increases in hospitalizations.

Nationally, between 3,200 to 13,800 daily confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions are expected to be reported on Aug. 5. As of Wednesday, the U.S. is reporting nearly 5,800 virus-related hospital admissions each day, according to the CDC.

Hospitalization levels have already been increasing, with nearly 40,000 virus-positive Americans currently hospitalized, according to federal data. Totals are more than double the level they were at this time last summer, when the delta surge was beginning to emerge, and a growing number of COVID-19 positive people are also showing up to emergency departments, data shows.

In the South, where many states are forecasted to see notable increases, hospital admissions have risen by more than 20% in the last week.

Although the overall total remains significantly lower than at the nation’s peak, when more than 160,000 patients were hospitalized with the virus, hospitalizations are still at their highest point since early March.

The forecast also predicts that virus-related deaths will have either a stable or an uncertain trend in the next four weeks.

Even so, more than 5,700 deaths are still expected to occur nationally over the next two weeks. Texas, Oklahoma and California are projected to see the largest death tolls in the weeks to come.

“Deaths are still around 300, but hospitalizations are ticking up. This is something you don’t want to panic about, but we really need to pay attention to it because there are things that we can do to blunt that,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, a senior adviser to the president on the pandemic, told CNN on Wednesday.

Fauci and other federal health officials have been raising the alarm about omicron subvariant BA.5, which they say has been causing a resurgence of infections.

The U.S. is currently reporting more than 118,000 new cases a day, marking the country’s highest daily infection average since mid-February.

Fauci said the current reported case total is likely a “gross underestimate” as the majority of Americans are testing with home kits and not reporting their results to their local jurisdictions.

BA.5 is now the dominant variant in the U.S, accounting for an estimated 65% of new cases in the country. Scientists say it does appear to have a transmission advantage over the original omicron strain, although they do not believe it is more severe than prior strains.

“[BA.5] is certainly the most immune evasive. What we’re seeing is people who were previously infected getting reinfected at high rates, people who were vaccinated last year having a ton of breakthrough infections. It’s something we’re paying a lot of attention to,” White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on Good Morning America Wednesday.

However, Jha said the vaccines and boosters are still helping blunt the impact of severe disease.

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