(LONDON) — President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law early on Feb. 24, 2022, under Kyiv skies still tinged black by the smoke from Russian missile strikes.
Three years later, the ravaged nation is still living under the extraordinary powers granted to the government in order to sustain its defensive and existential war against President Vladimir Putin’s invading Russian forces. Powers that Russia is wielding to undermine the country’s wartime leader.
Under the Ukrainian constitution, elections — whether presidential or parliamentary — cannot be held while martial law is in force.
Moscow has for months been seeking to weaponize Ukraine’s democratic freeze, with Putin and his allies framing Zelenskyy as illegitimate and therefore unsuitable to take part in peace talks.
President Donald Trump now appears to be lending his weight to the Kremlin’s campaign.
On Wednesday, Trump criticized his Ukrainian counterpart as “a dictator without elections” — prompting widespread consternation of Trump’s remarks both within the U.S. and especially among European allies.
Trump also claimed — without offering evidence — that Zelenskyy’s public approval rating was “down to 4%.” Recent major surveys show Zelenskyy’s approval rating at above 50%.
The push for new elections is “not a Russia thing,” Trump said. “That’s something coming from me and coming from many other countries also.”
A source close to the Ukrainian government — who did not wish to be named as they were not authorized to speak publicly — told ABC News they believe the push is coming from those who “believe that Zelenskyy, personally, is a problem because he is not compliant enough, he’s not simply going to accept anything that they propose or anything that they demand.”
Kyiv has repeatedly warned that elections during war time would be severely destabilizing. If Ukraine is forced into a rush and insecure election, “We could see absolute political chaos in Kyiv,” the source said.
In reality, until now, the legitimacy argument has come almost exclusively from Moscow.
“You can negotiate with anyone, but because of his illegitimacy, he has no right to sign anything,” Putin said of Zelenskyy in January, repeating his false claim that Ukraine’s inability to hold elections in 2024 meant that the president’s term had expired.
The country’s parliament and its speaker “remain the only legitimate authorities in Ukraine,” Putin said in May 2024.
Foreign allies of Kyiv have dismissed Putin’s claims, noting the totalitarian nature of Kremlin rule and Russia’s own carefully managed electoral theater, that has kept Putin in power for more than two decades.
They have also pushed back Trump’s attacks on Zelenskyy, with most leaders expressing solidarity with him. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz — for example — said it was “wrong and dangerous to deny President Zelenskyy democratic legitimacy.” Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer also said it was “reasonable” not to hold elections during wartime, following a call with Zelenskyy.
Trump’s domestic allies mobilized to support the president and criticize Zelenskyy. Elon Musk, for example, said Trump “is right to ignore” the Ukrainian president. Sen. Lindsey Graham told reporters, “We need elections in Ukraine,” while Sen. Josh Hawley likewise said Zelenskyy “should hold an election.”
Most Ukrainians politicians and experts have warned that any contest held during wartime would be vulnerable to Russian interference, could not guarantee the representation of soldiers deployed on the battlefield or refugees displaced either internally or abroad, and would threaten to destabilize the state at its most vulnerable moment.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament representing Zelenskyy’s party and the chair of the body’s foreign affairs committee, told ABC News that Putin “wants to use an election campaign during the war to undermine stability with Ukraine.”
“Putin is trying to push this narrative through someone in Trump’s entourage,” Merezhko said.
The Trump effect
Trump’s recent attacks on Zelenskyy appear to have bolstered the latter’s political position. Allies and rivals alike rallied around the Ukrainian president’s office in the aftermath of Trump’s broadsides.
“Only Ukrainians have the right to decide when and under what conditions they should change their government,” former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko wrote on Facebook. “None of us will allow such elections before the end of the war. Our enemies and even our allies may not like it, but it is true.”
Serhiy Prytula — another prominent political figure — urged compatriots to “ignore that rhetoric and ‘dictator’ accusations from Trump.”
The source close to the Ukrainian government said that certain figures in Trump’s orbit want Zelenskyy replaced by a more malleable successor, one less likely to push back on controversial American efforts to force a peace deal.
“According to their logic, the problem here is not Russia or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s the ‘the ongoing war,'” the source said. “What is the mechanism for changing that, and in their view creating the conditions for someone who would be more compliant in Kyiv? It’s elections.”
The source said Trump’s team are wrong to think that Zelenskyy is on unstable political ground. “They’re operating under all of these false assumptions, one of which is that if you hold elections in Ukraine, it will necessarily result in the success of a candidate who is willing to bend to whatever it is that Trump is demanding,” they said.
“I don’t think that they have anyone in mind,” the source added. “I just think that they’re confident in their ability to either create that individual in a way, or to cut some sort of private deal with someone.”
Even if the U.S. and Russia succeeded in unseating Zelenskyy in favor of a more pliant successor, “if you end up with leadership in Kyiv that is willing to cut some sort of deal that is absolutely unacceptable to a large segment of Ukrainian society, we could see fragmentation, even of the Ukrainian military,” they said.
“If the Trump administration pushes this government, or any Ukrainian government, too far, I think that this scenario becomes a real one, and this is certainly not in Ukraine’s interest or Europe’s interest, but I don’t see how it’s in the interest of the United States either.”
Zekenskyy’s challengers
For now, there appears little in the way of a concrete challenge to the incumbent.
In Kyiv, Valerii Zaluzhnyi — the former Ukrainian commander-in-chief who is now serving as Kyiv’s ambassador to the U.K. — is widely seen as the only real potential challenger to Zelenskyy.
Zaluzhnyi publicly fell out with the president and his team — prime among them Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelenskyy’s office — in late 2023 over public comments framing the war as a “stalemate.”
It is not clear whether Zaluzhnyi would stand for election. The former commander-in-chief has dodged questions about any future political ambitions.
But a November poll by the Social Monitoring Center organization put the former general at the top of preferred potential presidential candidates backed by 27% of 1,200 respondents. Zelenskyy trailed on 16%, with former President Petro Poroshenko on 7%.
A February survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) indicated diminished trust in the current president compared to the extraordinary highs of the early months of the war. But it still remains high compared to most democratically-elected leaders. Public trust in Zelenskyy among 1,000 respondents was at 57% in February, compared with 77% in December 2023 and 90% in May 2022, around three months after Russia’s invasion. The latest poll showed a 5% bump in trust from December 2024.
Another recent poll by the Identity and Borders in Flux project in partnership with KIIS published on Feb. 19, showed two-thirds of Ukrainians approve of Zelenskyy’s actions.
The KIIS poll found that trust in Ukraine’s civilian government overall fell to 26% — a decline from 52% in 2023. In contrast, those surveyed reported overwhelming 96% trust in the Ukrainian military, with 88% saying they trust Zaluzhnyi.
The showdown between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi ended with the former assuming an ambassadorial posting to the U.K., in which the former general has maintained a relatively low media profile and avoided any public revival of tensions with the president.
The same cannot be said for Poroshenko — another potential electoral rival — with whom the president is now locked in a very public battle. Earlier this month, Zelenskyy signed a decree sanctioning Poroshenko and several other politically connected wealthy Ukrainians for allegedly undermining national security.
Poroshenko dismissed the sanctions as politically motivated and unconstitutional. “Why are they doing this? Hatred, fear and revenge,” he said in a statement. “And because they have elections. Not us. The government.”
The IBF project poll showed a much lower proportion — 26-32% — of Ukrainians would vote for Zelensky in an election. But that still far outpaces Poroshenko, his nearest current rival, and remains far above the 4% figure put forward by Trump.
Zelenskyy has been unclear on his own political goals. In 2022, the president said he will “definitely” remain in his post until Kyiv achieves victory. “After that, I don’t know,” he added. “I’m not thinking about that now, I’m not ready.”
Peace could prove perilous for Zelenskyy if Ukrainian voters do not agree with its terms.
One former official — who asked not to be named for fear of retaliation — told ABC News the president “needs to blame Trump” if Ukraine is indeed forced into a controversial peace deal.
“He cannot stop this war now and take responsibility, because for him, it will be political suicide,” they said.
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