(NEW YORK) — Joran van der Sloot, the prime suspect in the unsolved 2005 disappearance of American teenager Natalee Holloway, has lost his extradition appeal and will be sent to the United States on Thursday, according to the Peruvian Supreme Court.
Van der Sloot had filed “a habeas corpus application against the citizen extradition process,” according to a court document, and on Monday he refused to sign the laissez-passer that would allow him to be extradited, his lawyer told ABC News.
The Dutch citizen has been serving a 28-year sentence in Peru for the 2010 murder of 21-year-old college student Stephany Flores. Van der Sloot left the Challapalca prison in Peru on Saturday to be transferred to another prison in Lima to await his extradition to the U.S.
In the U.S., van der Sloot faces extortion and wire fraud charges stemming from an accusation that he tried to profit from his connection to the Holloway case.
Holloway, 18, went missing in May 2005 while on a high school graduation trip in Aruba. She was last seen driving off with a group of young men, including van der Sloot, then 17.
Van der Sloot, who was detained as a suspect in the teen’s disappearance and then later released, was indicted by an Alabama federal grand jury in 2010 for allegedly trying to extort Holloway’s family.
Federal prosecutors alleged that in March 2010 van der Sloot contacted Holloway’s mother, Beth Holloway, through her lawyer and claimed he would reveal the location of the teen’s body in exchange for $250,000, with $25,000 paid upfront. During a recorded sting operation, Beth Holloway’s attorney, John Q. Kelly, met with van der Sloot at an Aruba hotel, giving him $10,000 in cash as Beth Holloway wired $15,000 to van der Sloot’s bank account, according to prosecutors.
Then, van der Sloot allegedly changed his story about the night he had been with Natalee Holloway, prosecutors said. Van der Sloot claimed he had picked her up but that she had demanded to be put down, so he threw her to the ground. He said her head hit a rock and she was killed instantly by the impact, according to prosecutors.
Prosecutors said van der Sloot then took Kelly to a house and claimed that his father, who had since died, buried Natalee Holloway’s body in the building’s foundation.
Kelly later emailed van der Sloot, saying the information he had provided was “worthless,” according to prosecutors. Within days, van der Sloot left Aruba for Peru.
ABC News’ Jack Date and Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report.
(LONDON) — A section of a strategically vital Ukrainian dam and hydroelectric powerplant under Russian control has been blown up. Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for the breach.
The Nova Kakhovka dam, which was built in 1956 and traverses the enormous Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, suffered an explosion overnight at approximately 2 a.m. local time as a deluge of water could be seen bursting through the dam that had previously held back more than 18 cubic kilometers of water — comparable to the size of the Great Salt Lake in Utah.
The dam’s breach could have a massive impact on the wider war effort between Russia and Ukraine.
A defiant President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held an emergency meeting of his National Security Council on Tuesday and blamed “Russian terrorists” for the dam explosion.
“The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam only confirms for the whole world that they must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian land,” Zelenskyy said in a message on social media. “Not a single meter should be left to them, because they use every meter for terror. It’s only Ukraine’s victory that will return security. And this victory will come. The terrorists will not be able to stop Ukraine with water, missiles or anything else.”
Meanwhile, an estimated 16,000 residents who live downriver were told to leave immediately after the explosion as the governor of Kherson ordered an immediate evacuation of citizens. Officials told residents they had five hours to get out, instructing them only to take essential documents and directing them to buses that would take them to higher ground.
“The United Nations has no access to independent information on the circumstances that led to the destruction in the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam,” the UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement Tuesday. “But one thing is clear: this is another devastating consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
The UN said it is rushing support to Ukraine, which includes drinking water, water purification tablets and other “critical” assistance.
The explosion at the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, which seems to be beyond repair, could also affect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is located approximately 100 miles upstream.
The reservoir provides cooling water to the plant and the International Atomic Energy Agency, said it is “closely monitoring” the situation surrounding the dam but that there was “no immediate nuclear safety risk” to Zaporizhzhia.
In an interview with the New York Times, Ivan Plachkov — a former minister of energy of Ukraine — said that all six nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Plant are shut down but still require water to dissipate heat from the radioactive fuel remaining in the reactor cores.
(LONDON) — Prince Harry took to the witness stand in a U.K. courtroom on Tuesday, becoming the first British royal to do so in more than a century.
The Duke of Sussex was grilled by the defense team in his lawsuit against Mirror Group Newspapers, the publisher of The Daily Mirror.
Harry and 100 other celebrities, including the estate of the late George Michael, are suing Mirror Group Newspapers for alleged misuse of private information between 1991 and 2011, including phone hacking and intercepting voicemails.
In a prepared witness statement released Tuesday, Harry said the articles published about himself and his family played a destructive role in his childhood and provoked feelings of paranoia in him.
“As a teenager and in my early 20s, I ended up feeling as though I was playing up to a lot of the headlines and stereotypes that [the tabloid press] wanted to pin on me mainly because I thought that, if they are printing this rubbish about me and people were believing it, I may as well ‘do the crime,’ so to speak,” Harry said in the statement. “It was a downward spiral, whereby the tabloids would constantly try and coax me, a ‘damaged’ young man, into doing something stupid that would make a good story and sell lots of newspapers.”
He continued, “Looking back on it now, such behavior on their part is utterly vile.”
Harry, the youngest child of King Charles III and the late Princess Diana, also addressed the tabloid rumors that he was born from an affair between Diana and James Hewitt.
Harry said in his witness statement that he wondered if the rumors were planted by the tabloids so that he would be “ousted from the Royal Family.”
“Numerous newspapers had reported a rumour that my biological father was James Hewitt, a man my mother had a relationship with after I was born. At the time of this article and others similar to it, I wasn’t actually aware that my mother hadn’t met Major Hewitt until after I was born,” Harry said in his statement. “This timeline is something I only learnt of … around 2014, although I now understand this was common knowledge amongst the Defendant’s journalists.”
He continued, “At the time, when I was 18 years old and had lost my mother just six years earlier, stories such as this felt very damaging and very real to me. They were hurtful, mean and cruel. I was always left questioning the motives behind the stories. Were the newspapers keen to put doubt into the minds of the public so I might be ousted from the Royal Family?”
Harry’s legal team has accused Mirror Group Newspapers of unlawfully gathering information on an “industrial scale.”
Mirror Group Newspapers is contesting the claims, saying in the 33 articles being examined by the court that its reporters found the information through lawful reporting.
Harry’s testimony in the case is expected to continue on Wednesday.
The prince traveled to the U.K. just prior to his testimony Tuesday because of a late flight to the U.K. after celebrating the birthday of his daughter, Lilibet, who turned 2 on Sunday, according to his attorney.
Harry and his wife Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, live in California with Lilibet and their 4-year-old son, Archie.
Since stepping down from his role as a senior working royal in 2020, Harry has made no secret of his disdain for the British tabloid media. In his witness statement, Harry said it he has “a very difficult relationship with the tabloid press in the U.K.”
“Harry is somebody that is very clear in what he wants to achieve. He believes he has been treated badly by this newspaper group,” said ABC News royal contributor Robert Jobson. “He believes he’s had his phone hacked by this newspaper group and therefore is determined, as he is right, to be compensated for it, and to receive an apology.”
The lawsuit against the Mirror Group Newspapers is one of six lawsuits that Harry is currently waging against the British tabloids.
He made an unexpected appearance in a U.K. courtroom in March for a hearing on a lawsuit that he, Elton John and other celebrities have brought against Associated Newspapers Ltd., the publisher of the Daily Mail, The Mail on Sunday and the MailOnline.
The case, first announced last year, alleges the celebrity defendants are “the victims of abhorrent criminal activity and gross breaches of privacy,” according to a press release shared last year by Hamlins, the London-based law firm representing Harry in the case.
Harry told ABC News’ Michael Strahan in January that the lawsuits he is involved in are his attempt to bring about real change when it comes to the media coverage of celebrities and the royal family.
“I’m in this to be able to say, ‘Draw a line. Enough. We can all move on and get on with our lives,'” he said. “But if this continues, then I’m naturally, deeply concerned that what has happened to us will happen to someone else.”
(LONDON) — Prince Harry took to the witness stand Tuesday in a U.K. courtroom, becoming the first British royal to do so in more than a century.
Harry, the duke of Sussex, was grilled by the defense team in his lawsuit against Mirror Group Newspapers, the publisher of The Daily Mirror.
Harry and 100 other celebrities, including the estate of the late George Michael, are suing Mirror Group Newspapers for alleged misuse of private information between 1991 and 2011, including phone hacking and intercepting voicemails.
On the witness stand, Harry said the articles published about himself and his family played a destructive role in his childhood and provoked feelings of paranoia in him.
“As a teenager and in my early 20s, I ended up feeling as though I was playing up to a lot of the headlines and stereotypes that [the tabloid press] wanted to pin on me mainly because I thought that, if they are printing this rubbish about me and people were believing it, I may as well ‘do the crime,’ so to speak,” Harry said in his prepared witness statement. “It was a downward spiral, whereby the tabloids would constantly try and coax me, a ‘damaged’ young man, into doing something stupid that would make a good story and sell lots of newspapers.”
He continued, “Looking back on it now, such behavior on their part is utterly vile.”
Harry’s legal team has accused Mirror Group Newspapers of unlawfully gathering information on an “industrial scale.”
Mirror Group Newspapers is contesting the claims, saying in the 33 articles being examined by the court that its reporters found the information through lawful reporting.
Harry’s testimony in the case is expected to continue on Wednesday.
The prince traveled to the U.K. just prior to his testimony Tuesday because of a late flight to the U.K. after celebrating the birthday of his daughter, Lilibet, who turned 2 on Sunday, according to his attorney.
Harry and his wife Meghan, the uchess of Sussex, live in California with Lilibet and their 4-year-old son, Archie.
Since stepping down from his role as a senior working royal in 2020, Harry has made no secret of his disdain for the British tabloid media. In his witness statement, Harry said it he has “a very difficult relationship with the tabloid press in the U.K.”
“Harry is somebody that is very clear in what he wants to achieve. He believes he has been treated badly by this newspaper group,” said ABC News royal contributor Robert Jobson. “He believes he’s had his phone hacked by this newspaper group and therefore is determined, as he is right, to be compensated for it, and to receive an apology.”
The lawsuit against the Mirror Group Newspapers is one of six lawsuits that Harry, the youngest son of King Charles III, is currently waging against the British tabloids.
He made an unexpected appearance in a U.K. courtroom in March for a hearing on a lawsuit that he, Elton John and other celebrities have brought against Associated Newspapers Ltd., the publisher of the Daily Mail, The Mail on Sunday and the MailOnline.
The case, first announced last year, alleges the celebrity defendants are “the victims of abhorrent criminal activity and gross breaches of privacy,” according to a press release shared last year by Hamlins, the London-based law firm representing Harry in the case.
Harry told ABC News’ Michael Strahan in January that the lawsuits he is involved in are his attempt to bring about real change when it comes to the media coverage of celebrities and the royal family.
“I’m in this to be able to say, ‘Draw a line. Enough. We can all move on and get on with our lives,'” he said. “But if this continues, then I’m naturally, deeply concerned that what has happened to us will happen to someone else.”
(LONDON) — A section of a strategically vital Ukrainian dam and hydroelectric powerplant under Russian control has been blown up as both Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for the breach.
The Nova Kakhovka dam, which was built in 1956 and traverses the enormous Dnipro river in southern Ukraine, suffered an explosion overnight at approximately 2 a.m. local time as a deluge of water could be seen bursting through the dam that had previously held back more than 18 cubic kilometers of water — comparable to the size of the Great Salt Lake in Utah.
The dam’s breach could have a massive impact on the wider war effort between Russia and Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held an emergency meeting of his National Security Council on Tuesday and blamed “Russian terrorists” for the explosion of the dam.
“The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam only confirms for the whole world that they must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian land,” Zelenskyy said in a message on social media. “Not a single meter should be left to them, because they use every meter for terror. It’s only Ukraine’s victory that will return security. And this victory will come. The terrorists will not be able to stop Ukraine with water, missiles or anything else.”
Meanwhile, an estimated 16,000 residents who live downriver were told to leave immediately in the aftermath of the explosion as the governor of Kherson ordered an immediate evacuation of citizens. Officials told residents they had five hours to get out, instructing them only to take essential documents and directing them to buses that would take them to higher ground.
The explosion at the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, which seems to be beyond repair, could also affect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which is located approximately 100 miles upstream.
The reservoir provides cooling water to the plant and the International Atomic Energy Agency said it is “closely monitoring” the situation surrounding the dam but that there was “no immediate nuclear safety risk” to Zaporizhzhia.
In an interview with the New York Times, Ivan Plachkov — a former minister of energy of Ukraine — said that all six nuclear reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Plant are shut down but still require water to dissipate heat from the radioactive fuel remaining in the reactor cores.
(LONDON) — Prince Harry will break royal precedent once again when he testifies this week in court, becoming the first British royal to do so in more than a century.
Harry, the duke of Sussex, is expected to take the stand Tuesday and Wednesday in his lawsuit against Mirror Group Newspapers, the publisher of the Daily Mirror.
Harry’s attorney, David Sherborne, said in court Monday that Harry would need to testify on Tuesday because of a late flight to the U.K. after celebrating the birthday of his daughter, Lilibet, who turned 2 on Sunday.
Harry and his wife Meghan, the duchess of Sussex, live in California with Lilibet and their 4-year-old son, Archie.
Harry and 100 other celebrities, including the estate of the late George Michael, are suing Mirror Group Newspapers for alleged misuse of private information between 1991 and 2011, including phone hacking and intercepting voicemails.
Harry’s legal team has accused the newspaper publisher of unlawfully gathering information on an “industrial scale.”
Mirror Group Newspapers has denied the claims, saying its reporters found the information through lawful reporting.
If Harry takes the stand Tuesday as expected, he will be the first member of Britain’s royal family to testify in a court case since the late 19th century.
“Harry is somebody that is very clear in what he wants to achieve. He believes he has been treated badly by this newspaper group,” said ABC News royal contributor Robert Jobson. “He believes he’s had his phone hacked by this newspaper group and therefore is determined, as he is right, to be compensated for it, and to receive an apology.”
Since stepping down from his role as a senior working royal in 2020, Harry has made no secret of his disdain for the British tabloid media.
The lawsuit against the Mirror Group Newspapers is one of six lawsuits that Harry, the youngest son of King Charles III, is currently waging against the British tabloids.
He made an unexpected appearance in a U.K. courtroom in March for a hearing on a lawsuit that he, Elton John and other celebrities have brought against Associated Newspapers Ltd., the publisher of the Daily Mail, The Mail on Sunday and the MailOnline.
The case, first announced last year, alleges the celebrity defendants are “the victims of abhorrent criminal activity and gross breaches of privacy,” according to a press release shared last year by Hamlins, the London-based law firm representing Harry in the case.
Harry told ABC News’ Michael Strahan in January that the lawsuits he is involved in are his attempt to bring about real change when it comes to the media coverage of celebrities and the royal family.
“I’m in this to be able to say, ‘Draw a line. Enough. We can all move on and get on with our lives,'” he said. “But if this continues, then I’m naturally, deeply concerned that what has happened to us will happen to someone else.”
(WASHINGTON) — Although U.S. officials have accused China’s military of carrying out dangerous provocations in recent days, diplomats from both countries are ramping up engagement at the same time — a two-prong approach that seems to be increasingly driven by Beijing.
On Monday, White House spokesperson John Kirby condemned a close call in the Taiwan Strait over the weekend when a Chinese warship crossed just about 150 yards across an American destroyer’s bow, a move the Pentagon described an “unsafe maritime interaction.”
“We urge them to make better decisions about how they operate in international airspace, and sea-space,” Kirby said, adding that this incident as well as a Chinese fighter jet recently coming within 400 feet of a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace speaks to an “increasing level of aggressiveness” demonstrated by Beijing’s military.
But despite that public chastisement by the Biden administration, high-level U.S. officials from the State Department and the National Security Council held private talks in Beijing — the latest sign that tensions between the powers are easing, at least on the diplomatic front.
The State Department’s deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel described the meetings as “candid and productive discussions as part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication,” and an effort to build on other recent high-level engagements.
“President Biden has been clear we don’t seek any kind of new Cold War and our competition must not spill over into conflict,” Patel said.
While the Biden administration has been consistent in seeking to maintain open lines of communication across areas of government, Beijing’s split-strategy has become more evident in recent weeks as it apparently seeks to thaw relations with Washington while continuing to show its military might in the Indo-Pacific.
China’s reticence to participate in military-to-military communication with the U.S. across senior and working levels is a longstanding tradition, and one on display last week when Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s request for a face-to-face meeting with his Chinese counterpart at the annual Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore was rejected.
A reason for that hesitancy, sources and experts say, is that the Chinese government sees military communication between the countries as dominated by the Taiwan issue — a matter where Beijing sees virtual zero room for compromise, and thus, little need for conversation.
But in other arenas, Beijing sees plenty of potential benefits in engaging with Washington — particularly when it comes to the U.S.-China trade relationship.
Although China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has periodically sent mixed messages about its posture towards the U.S., its actions in recent weeks have displayed a renewed enthusiasm for diplomacy. In May, Beijing appointed an ambassador to the U.S. after the post was left vacant for months and sent a delegation to Detroit to participate in trade talks.
Officials from both countries also see the recent visit by U.S. officials to Beijing as an important precursor for rescheduling Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip the city, which was scrapped in February after a Chinese surveillance balloon was identified over the U.S. mainland.
Sources say that getting that trip back on track is something that both countries want to see happen, and that it may be added to the calendar before the end of the summer.
While there are examples of progress in the bilateral relationship, American officials have warned that a gap in military-to-military communication may still result in a dangerous blind spot, which could lead to additional close-calls between countries and dangerous escalation.
“It won’t be long before somebody gets hurt,” Kirby said of the intercepts. “They can lead to misunderstandings. They can lead to miscalculations.”
(NEW YORK) — Joran van der Sloot, the prime suspect in the unsolved 2005 disappearance of American teenager Natalee Holloway, on Monday refused to sign the laissez-passer that would allow him to be extradited to the United States, his lawyer tells ABC News.
Van der Sloot plans to appeal his extradition to the U.S., Maximo Altez, his lawyer, said. A hearing on the appeal will likely happen Tuesday or Thursday, he added.
This process could slow down when van der Sloot is transferred to the U.S., but it is unclear how much this action will delay his extradition.
A National Penitentiary Institute of Peru spokesperson had previously said van der Sloot will likely be extradited to the United States on Thursday night.
Van der Sloot left the Challapalca prison in Peru on Saturday to be transferred to another prison in Lima, where he’s awaiting his extradition to the U.S.
The Dutch citizen has been serving a 28-year sentence in Peru for the 2010 murder of 21-year-old college student Stephany Flores.
U.S. Justice Department officials acknowledge that a “temporary surrender” was granted by Peru under Article X of an existing extradition treaty between the two countries. The department would not comment on the timing of his movement, citing policy regarding safety and security concerns.
In the U.S., van der Sloot faces extortion and wire fraud charges stemming from an accusation that he tried to profit from his connection to the Holloway case.
Holloway, 18, went missing in May 2005 while on a high school graduation trip in Aruba. She was last seen driving off with a group of young men, including van der Sloot, then 17.
Van der Sloot, who was detained as a suspect in the teen’s disappearance and then later released, was indicted by an Alabama federal grand jury in 2010 for allegedly trying to extort Holloway’s family.
Federal prosecutors alleged that in March 2010 van der Sloot contacted Holloway’s mother, Beth Holloway, through her lawyer and claimed he would reveal the location of the teen’s body in exchange for $250,000, with $25,000 paid upfront. During a recorded sting operation, Beth Holloway’s attorney, John Q. Kelly, met with van der Sloot at an Aruba hotel, giving him $10,000 in cash as Beth Holloway wired $15,000 to van der Sloot’s bank account, according to prosecutors.
Then, van der Sloot allegedly changed his story about the night he had been with Natalee Holloway, prosecutors said. Van der Sloot claimed he had picked her up but that she had demanded to be put down, so he threw her to the ground. He said her head hit a rock and she was killed instantly by the impact, according to prosecutors.
Prosecutors said van der Sloot then took Kelly to a house and claimed that his father, who had since died, buried Natalee Holloway’s body in the building’s foundation.
Kelly later emailed van der Sloot, saying the information he had provided was “worthless,” according to prosecutors. Within days, van der Sloot left Aruba for Peru.
ABC News’ Jack Date and Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report.
(NEW YORK) — Joran van der Sloot, the prime suspect in the unsolved 2005 disappearance of American teenager Natalee Holloway, will likely be extradited to the United States on Thursday night, according to a National Penitentiary Institute of Peru spokesperson.
Van der Sloot left the Challapalca prison in Peru on Saturday to be transferred to another prison in Lima, where he’s awaiting his extradition to the U.S.
The Dutch citizen has been serving a 28-year sentence in Peru for the 2010 murder of 21-year-old college student Stephany Flores.
U.S. Justice Department officials acknowledge that a “temporary surrender” was granted by Peru under Article X of an existing extradition treaty between the two countries. The department would not comment on the timing of his movement, citing policy regarding safety and security concerns.
In the U.S., van der Sloot faces extortion and wire fraud charges stemming from an accusation that he tried to profit from his connection to the Holloway case.
Holloway, 18, went missing in May 2005 while on a high school graduation trip in Aruba. She was last seen driving off with a group of young men, including van der Sloot, then 17.
Van der Sloot, who was detained as a suspect in the teen’s disappearance and then later released, was indicted by an Alabama federal grand jury in 2010 for allegedly trying to extort Holloway’s family.
Federal prosecutors alleged that in March 2010 van der Sloot contacted Holloway’s mother, Beth Holloway, through her lawyer and claimed he would reveal the location of the teen’s body in exchange for $250,000, with $25,000 paid upfront. During a recorded sting operation, Beth Holloway’s attorney, John Q. Kelly, met with van der Sloot at an Aruba hotel, giving him $10,000 in cash as Beth Holloway wired $15,000 to van der Sloot’s bank account, according to prosecutors.
Then, van der Sloot allegedly changed his story about the night he had been with Natalee Holloway, prosecutors said. Van der Sloot claimed he had picked her up but that she had demanded to be put down, so he threw her to the ground. He said her head hit a rock and she was killed instantly by the impact, according to prosecutors.
Prosecutors said van der Sloot then took Kelly to a house and claimed that his father, who had since died, buried Natalee Holloway’s body in the building’s foundation.
Kelly later emailed van der Sloot, saying the information he had provided was “worthless,” according to prosecutors. Within days, van der Sloot left Aruba for Peru.
ABC News’ Jack Date and Nadine El-Bawab contributed to this report
A billboard promoting contract army service is pictured in the Russian city of Belgorod, some 40 km from border with Ukraine, on May 27, 2023. — Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images
(SLOVYANSK, Ukraine) — Well-trained, well-equipped Ukrainian combat forces are now in “assembly areas,” close enough to front line areas, meaning they could launch a concerted attack on Russian positions in a relatively short time period, according to Western officials.
In the meantime, Ukraine has already increased its offensive operations, both within its own borders and in Russia and beyond, in order to attempt to create more favorable conditions ahead of a much-anticipated counteroffensive.
Current operations were part of a “bigger plan,” which would eventually lead to a major offensive, a senior Ukrainian commander said in a recent interview with ABC News.
Unconfirmed reports indicated on Monday that Ukrainian offensive actions in certain areas of the front lines were increasing.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have repelled a number of Ukrainian attacks, however the leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said Ukrainian forces had advanced around the settlement of Berkhivka, to the north of the Ukrainian eastern city of Bakhmut.
“The troops are fleeing,” said Prigozhin in an audio message posted online.
It’s unclear whether fresh offensive actions by the Ukrainian military will evolve into larger assaults on wider areas of the Russian front lines or whether they are more localized — or even diversionary operations — aimed at testing and wearing down the Russian defenses in preparation for a more substantial offensive later on.
In an online briefing this week, Western officials cautioned that, even though Ukraine now has the military weaponry and equipment it needs to punch through the Russian lines, a large-scale assault could still be “weeks” away.
The officials said Ukraine was currently engaged in “shaping operations,” which refers to a series of actions on and off the battlefield aimed at destabilizing the Kremlin and the Russian military in order to create the optimal conditions for the counteroffensive.
Despite officially denying involvement in a drone attack last week on Moscow, in private Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian intelligence was behind that strike and a number of other recent attacks inside Russia.
Officials in the Russian region of Belgorod have also reported a spike in Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks in recent days.
The assessment from Western officials given to reporters was that the series of attacks inside Russia are “difficult for the Russian leadership” as the Kremlin has to strike a balance between recognizing the seriousness of what had been happening, but also not reinforcing the notion that the war in Ukraine is now having a tangible impact in Russia.
The officials said they were now “tracking” Russian media sources to see whether criticism of the Russian leadership might become “a less taboo thing.”
Over the past two weeks ABC News has interviewed four middle-ranking and senior Ukrainian commanders, as well as low-ranking soldiers about the forthcoming counteroffensive.
Most of the men said preparations for the counteroffensive are moving into the final stages.
Colonel Oleksandr Bakulin, who commands around 6,000 men positioned near the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut said Ukraine was “pushing” in some frontline areas, however he cautioned that in other areas, Russian forces were doing the same.
Bakulin said recent Ukrainian gains in areas near to Bakhmut were part of a “bigger plan” which would “eventually lead to the counteroffensive.”
In recent weeks Ukraine has also stepped-up long-range missile strikes on areas of occupied territory deep behind the Russian lines.
The efficacy of such strikes is impossible to judge, given that there is little public comment about the strikes and claims by either side cannot be verified.
However verifiable videos circulating online fit the same broad pattern seen in the run-up to Ukraine’s counteroffensive on the city of Kherson back in November which was preceded by Ukrainian strikes on Russian military assets and logistics.
Officials in the United Kingdom said their Storm Shadow missiles are now being used by the Ukrainian military.
Those missiles have a range of around 155 miles, which is roughly triple the range of the missiles which the United States has supplied to Ukraine for use with the HIMARS missile-launchers.
In order not to reveal sensitive information to the Russians the quantities of long-range missiles supplied to Ukraine has not been revealed.
ABC News contributing military analyst, retired Col. Steve Ganyard questioned whether Ukraine’s stocks of Storm Shadows will be sufficient to substantially weaken Russian forces.
“Continued attacks on fuel storage areas and ammunition dumps will eventually prove useful in weakening Russia’s ability to wage war,” Ganyard said.
However he was skeptical about whether this can be achieved to a sufficient level over the next few weeks.
Russian defensive fortifications are also now, in places, “potentially formidable,” said Western officials.
Ganyard said he agreed with that assessment. He said there are still question marks about whether the Ukrainians “have the overwhelming force required to advance against a well dug-in opponent.”
However, he said, it was also important to bear in mind “how surprisingly poorly the Russian military has performed in this war.”
“It will all come down to how good Ukrainian and western supplied intelligence is, and how well Ukraine is able to exploit the Russian weaknesses they find,” Ganyard said.
Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have in recent days given a number of interviews and statements in which they have said that Ukrainian forces are now ready for the pending offensive.
However, as Western officials conceded, a major attack might still be weeks away.
Keeping the Russian military waiting and guessing is an important part of the Ukrainian game plan.
