Politics

(NEW YORK) — The 2024 primary season is finally beginning, with Iowa kicking it off with its first-in-the-nation Republican caucuses on Monday.

Former President Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the state — and the ultimate GOP nomination — according to polling tracked by 538, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are battling for second place and projecting confidence they can prove their viability with voters.

History proves that winning the caucuses is far from a guarantee of an eventual presidential nomination, but a strong margin of victory, or even beating expectations, could serve as a serious boost for a candidate heading into primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Here are five things to watch for heading into voting on Monday night.

If Trump wins — by how much?

The ultimate victor in Iowa’s caucuses looks like it will be Trump, if the months and months of polling is accurate. What remains less clear is how much he might win by.

538’s polling average in Iowa currently shows Trump with about 51% support, a roughly 35-point edge over Haley, his nearest competitor, who sits at about 17%. DeSantis has narrowly fallen behind Haley, with about 16%.

Strategists and the campaigns themselves are widely expecting that to be too much ground to make up for either Haley or DeSantis, with allies casting a strong second place as a victory.

“They’re viewing me as an underdog. I think that’s better,” DeSantis said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

Haley echoed that in a campaign trail appearance later Sunday: “We’re gonna go all the way until the last hour because we know what situation we’re in.”

Trump’s team has said anything beyond a 12-point win — the largest margin of victory ever seen in Iowa — would count as a blowout. 538’s average shows his margin could stretch to three times that amount, but the former president’s campaign is wary of setting sky-high expectations for fear that his supporters would no longer be motivated to turn out and the speculation of weakness that could come if those expectations aren’t met.

Enthusiasm does appear to be on Trump’s side, though. The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll found that among likely caucusgoers who said they plan on backing Trump, 82% said their mind was completely made up and 49% said they were “extremely enthusiastic.”

Among Haley voters, 63% said their mind was made up and just 9% were “extremely enthusiastic.”

Should Trump top 50% and wipe out Haley and DeSantis by dozens of points, he would enter New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 primary with a head full of steam and help solidify the narrative that 2024’s open GOP primary is anything but. Yet even a 12-point win would mark a massive departure from where polling has estimated the race to be, potentially putting a chink in Trump’s armor and putting wind in the sails of his rivals.

Who gets second place?

There are likely to be major consequences for both Haley and DeSantis, depending on where they end up in the Iowa results.

Haley has placed a larger emphasis on New Hampshire, where independent and undeclared voters can participate, giving her a broader Trump-skeptical base from which to draw. But her leapfrogging of DeSantis in the Iowa polling showed that a second-place finish is a real possibility.

Should she finish behind Trump — and particularly if she’s able to get even remotely close to him in the final tally — Haley would likely establish herself as the top Trump alternative in the eyes of many operatives, journalists and donors as well as anti-Trump voters.

Haley’s campaign itself hasn’t set any expectations for how she’ll do in Iowa, but New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who has endorsed her, has predicted a strong second-place finish for her in the caucuses.

A third-place finish for her, meanwhile, could be a disappointment for a campaign that has been gaining in public perception and polling since the fall.

DeSantis, for his part, has staked virtually his entire campaign on Iowa, essentially ditching New Hampshire and falling to third place in polls there (after former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie left the race).

Finishing in second place — again, especially if the margin with Trump is narrow — would likely reinvigorate a campaign that has been beset by reports of infighting and falling poll numbers, even if New Hampshire is less favorable.

A third-place showing in Iowa, on the other hand, could only fuel chatter about DeSantis’ narrowing path to success.

How much does retail politicking matter?

Crisscrossing Iowa is a tried-and-true tradition for candidates looking to win over caucusgoers. But, like much else in the Trump-era, that old rule may be out the window.

Trump has made just 35 in-person stops across 21 days, according to an ABC News count on Sunday morning. DeSantis, meanwhile, has traveled to all of Iowa’s 99 counties, holding 169 events across 61 days. And Ramaswamy has been to every county twice, holding 326 events over 89 days.

Yet it is Trump who is far ahead, while DeSantis and Ramaswamy are running in third and fourth places, respectively.

“It feels like there’s two different campaigns going on. There’s Trump and his legal battles that he puts front and center as his grievance campaign — ‘they’re out to get me, fight the deep state’ — and then there’s an actual campaign going on between DeSantis and Haley. But it’s only for second place,” said David Kochel, a veteran Iowa GOP strategist.

How much does a popular governor’s endorsement help?

DeSantis seemingly scored a coup in November when he got the endorsement of wildly popular Gov. Kim Reynolds. Now, with polls showing him in third place, it appears Reynolds’ vocal support hasn’t swayed many voters.

Haley scored her own endorsement of from popular governor, New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu, in December, which she’s hoping to translate into a strong finish there, likely on the backs of those who have voted for Sununu in the past.

But while Iowa’s caucuses and New Hampshire’s primary are not apples to apples, the impact — or lack thereof — of Reynolds’ endorsement could be a warning sign for Haley, who still trails Trump in polling even as she has closed the gap there.

How does weather impact turnout?

Iowa is going to be under a wind chill warning until Tuesday, and temperatures may not even break above 0 degrees — certainly not ideal conditions for a crucial caucus day in which they would typically be pushing to rally supporters.

The frigid weather has sparked speculation over whether turnout will take a hit — and who that would impact most.

On the one hand, some Republican strategists speculated that Trump’s supporters are so confident in his margin that they might not brave the weather, considering his victory all but guaranteed. But others wondered whether supporters of Trump’s rivals would make the same calculation and that turning out would not blunt his victory, making venturing out in a virtual tundra seemingly not worth it.

There does remain a third option — that Iowa voters value their caucuses enough that they’ll turn out regardless.

“I’m going to go,” said Karen Kuster, who is still undecided in the caucus. “I’ve thought about not going, but I’m gonna go.”

ABC News’ Nicholas Kerr and Kendall Ross contributed to this report.

 

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(NEW YORK) — After months of hearing from presidential candidates, Iowans will face frigid temperatures Monday evening as they register their preferences in the first-in-the-nation Republican 2024 caucuses.

In a state of a little more than 3 million people, the caucuses — which can take hours to participate in — usually attract just 150,000 to 250,000 Iowans. That small group of Americans has the very first say about who will go on to vie for the presidency.

Ahead of caucus night, ABC News sat down with supporters of former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to hear why they landed on their chosen candidate. Tom Donnelly, who supports Trump, said he would gladly support Haley or DeSantis. Nicole Cleveland and Liz Lee, who support DeSantis and Haley respectively, however said they would have to do a lot of soul searching to support Trump and that it would be unlikely.

The group of caucus-goers differed on issues running the gamut from abortion, to compromising with Democrats, to the legitimacy of the 2020 election. But there was one thing they all agreed on: Iowa is deserving of its first-in-the-nation status and Americans should take their preferences seriously.

Polls ahead of the caucuses suggest Trump has a very clear advantage when it comes to those preferences, but if there are going to be any wildcards this year, a succession of brutal winter storms might just be it. Due to the bad weather, Trump had to cancel three out of his four in-person commit to caucus rallies and will instead hold a series of telerallies.

 

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(NEW YORK) — Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses are on Monday night.

The Republican caucuses will be held at 7 p.m. CST — or 8 p.m. EST — at precinct locations in all 99 counties.

Voters must be registered as a Republican to participate and bring a valid form of ID. They can register to vote or register as a Republican in person at their caucus location that night.

The Democratic caucuses will also be held on Monday, though this time no presidential preference will take place. Instead, Iowa Democrats can request a presidential preference card through the mail or online by Feb. 19. Those results will be released on March 5.

The change comes after Iowa’s Democratic caucuses in 2020 were infamously marred by technical glitches.
State significance

Iowa has been the first voting state in the nation for the presidential nominating contest since 1972, giving the Hawkeye State an outsize influence over public discussion and media coverage of the broader primary race.

A GOP debate was held in Des Moines days before the caucuses. Former President Donald Trump, the front-runner among the Republican candidates, did not attend but rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley did. (Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who are also running, didn’t qualify.)

Iowa has 40 party delegates up for grabs (out of more than 2,000 available nationally), which will be allocated proportionally according to the results of the vote. Candidates technically compete for delegates — who then award the party’s nomination in the summer.

Brutal winter weather this year is a new complication, fueling discussion — and comments from candidates — about how that might affect turnout.

Trump handily won the caucuses in 2020, when he was essentially running unopposed as the incumbent, and went on to win the state in the presidential election by 8%. He narrowly lost the 2016 caucuses to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

The 2020 Democratic caucuses saw now-President Joe Biden finish fifth, sparking questions over how representative the electorate was of Democrats elsewhere.

There are 46 delegates up for grabs for Democrats in Iowa this year, out of more than 4,000 nationwide.

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Kurt Kreuger attended a presidential campaign event for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Thursday — not that he felt it would make much of a difference.

Kreuger, a 33-year-old from the city, is still deciding who to vote for in Monday’s caucuses, which kick off the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination after months of candidates on the trail. Kreuger said he’s leaning toward backing entrepreneur and commentator Vivek Ramaswamy but is seriously weighing all of his options after voting for former President Donald Trump in 2020.

But while his personal ballot is still up for grabs, he said, the race overall isn’t.

“Trump’s going to win the caucus,” Kreuger predicted to ABC News. “There’s no chance anybody else wins.”

That sentiment was echoed in recent interviews with a dozen voters and Republican operatives in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina which, along with the Nevada caucuses, encompass the first phase of the primary election.

According to voter and expert interviews — and nearly all polling — Republicans prefer one candidate to the others: Trump, who has campaigned on pledging to dismantle the Biden administration’s record. The former president often focuses on a message of “retribution” and touts anti-immigrant and anti-government policies.

Despite the initially crowded field of candidates running against him and despite the intensive media coverage and despite the frequent campaign stops and impassioned pitches from candidates like Haley and Florida Gov. Ron Desantis — despite all of that and despite Republican voters voicing concerns about having Trump be their White House nominee again, pre-vote polls show he remains the favorite choice.

With hours to go until ballots start being cast, Trump maintains double-digit leads not just in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina but across the rest of the country, as well as nationally, according to 538’s averages.

All of that has added up to a technically competitive contest that feels like anything but, some voters and operatives said.

“It is boring,” New Hampshire GOP strategist Dave Carney said. “It’s technically open, but it’s really running against a two-time presidential nominee.”

For more signs of how secondary the run-up to the Iowa caucuses has recently felt, look no further that the streets of the state’s capitol city just days before the main event that has for years been positioned as key on the road to the White House (despite history showing otherwise).

On one midday afternoon last week, blustering winds whipped blankets of snow from the once-in-a-decade storm around Des Moines, where the streets were deserted, save for a handful of vehicles dotting the roads.

Due to the treacherous weather, nearly all campaigns altered or flat-out canceled events — further overshadowing their final pitches to voters. Trump, the front-runner, who has decided to campaign much less than some competitors, canceled three of his four scheduled in-person appearances this weekend, opting instead for telerallies and off-the-record stops.

Few campaign signs dotted the sidewalks heading into Monday. The lively caucus pre-parties and raucous organizing events that would light up the city in past cycles have not returned; even the large-scale watering holes and popular hotel bars for the throngs of out-of-state media were seen teeming with dozens, rather than hundreds.

That atmosphere marks a stark departure — both from the 2016 Republican nominating contest, in which first-time candidate Trump ultimately emerged victorious, and the 2020 Democratic primary, when President Joe Biden won out only after months of closely watched campaigning in a bustling field.

“This time eight years ago, we had tons of candidate events and stops where you would have two and three things that day. They would be doing local county party events, they’d be doing meetings, they’d be doing coffees and meet-and-greets and bus tours. And so, I just don’t know if the tone is the same as it was eight years ago in that it’s almost like it’s already been decided,” said one well-connected South Carolina GOP operative who asked for anonymity to speak about the race.

That has even some of the most ardent supporters of Trump’s rivals managing their expectations in the early states.

When asked what the best-case scenario would be for Haley in Iowa, Sanford Owens, a volunteer from Oregon who traveled all the way to Cedar Rapids, told ABC News it would be Haley getting “within five to eight points” of Trump — a margin that polling suggests would be a massive upset.

“I would be popping the champagne. I’m popping it baby. And I’m getting the good stuff: the Veuve!” Owens said.

To be certain, Trump’s rivals are working to motivate Iowans to vote in the caucuses.

“The blizzard is not going to stop us, we will fight. The wind chill is not going to stop us, we will fight,” DeSantis said at an event in Davenport on Saturday night. “The media’s not going to stop us, we will fight. The polls won’t stop us, we will fight. We have in our power to fix this country.”

Still, others sounded less certain.

“I just am hopeful that a lot of people will participate on Monday, and we’ll see where that goes,” said Debbie Neumeyer of Robins, Iowa, who plans on caucusing for Haley.

Some Republicans warned of apathy.

Beyond Trump’s yawning lead, Iowans are expected to continue to face dangerously cold weather on Monday, sparking speculation that could dampen turnout.

Some operatives have questioned if Trump’s voters will feel emboldened enough to brave the elements or if they feel comfortable that the caucuses are in the bag.

However, others warned the cold and Trump’s advantage combined could make supporters of other candidates wonder if it’s even worth voting if the contest is already considered out of reach.

“My dad specifically told me he wanted to vote for Haley, but he isn’t sure that it’s going to be worth going to caucus on caucus night because he thinks that Trump is gonna run away with it anyway. So, what’s the point?” said one GOP strategist with experience working in Iowa, who asked not to be quoted by name because of professional relationships. “So, I literally told him, ‘It’s gonna come down to turnout from people like you. If you think that it’s not worth showing up, then he is going to run away with it.'”

ABC News’ Hannah Demissie and Will McDuffie contributed to this report.

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If former President Donald Trump is the Republican nominee in the 2024 election, the race will be overshadowed by the legal issues and other controversies he’s facing, creating a potent advantage for Democrats, rival Ron Desantis argued on Sunday.

“He’s focused a lot on things that concern him,” the Florida governor and 2024 primary candidate told ABC News “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl just one day before voting starts with the Iowa caucuses.

“Obviously, the distractions of everything that’s going along with all these legal issues has been a huge thing for him [Trump],” DeSantis said. “You’re gonna have criminal trials, you’re gonna have a lot of focus on things like Jan. 6 by the media, and I think that ends up focusing the election on things that are going to be advantageous for Democrats.”

“The notion that somehow all this stuff that’s swirling around him is going to be a positive in a general election, that’s just not true,” DeSantis said, warning of how the contest could be turned into “a referendum on Donald Trump.” (Trump denies all wrongdoing.)

“Whereas if I’m the nominee … I think it will be a crisp opportunity for a crisp victory for Republicans,” DeSantis said.

With the Iowa caucuses one day away — officially starting the 2024 Republican primary race on Monday in brutally cold winter weather — DeSantis is making his closing argument for why conservative voters should turn to him over Trump, who has remained the clear front-runner in state and national polling.

“I’ve delivered on 100% of my promises. Donald Trump, obviously, didn’t build the wall, didn’t drain the swamp and didn’t reduce the debt,” DeSantis told Karl. “I’ve also taken on and beaten the Democrats and the left. And in reality, Donald Trump, as president, oftentimes got beat by the Democrats.”

Still, many potential Iowa voters don’t seem swayed and Trump has dismissed DeSantis’ attacks, refusing even to debate with him.

A new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll released on Saturday showed the former president winning 48% support from likely Republican caucusgoers.

Meanwhile, DeSantis, who has put enormous resources into winning the state, building a robust ground game there, slipped down to third place — narrowly behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

DeSantis has repeatedly boasted over the past few months that he would win the Iowa caucuses but has changed his tune recently as voting approaches, now saying that the nominating contest is about winning the most delegates across every state and that he’s in the race for the “long haul.”

Pressed by Karl on “This Week” if he still promises to win Iowa, DeSantis said instead that “it’s good to be an underdog” and that his supporters in Iowa are ready to turn out for him.

“I’d rather have people lower expectations for us,” he said. “I tend to perform better like that.”

He also took a jab at Haley, who has risen in recent months to compete with him for second place behind Trump. Haley is “not getting support from conservatives,” DeSantis said. “She’s relying on Democrat-leaning independents for her support in the primary.”

Karl cited new ABC News/Ipsos polling that shows 68% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents feel Trump has the best chance to win in November. “Why are they wrong?” he asked.

DeSantis said GOP voters “understandably” see Biden as a “very feeble” candidate who would lose to anyone — but he argued past elections like in 2022 show Trump’s influence was rejected by many voters despite Biden’s poor popularity.

DeSantis also said he thinks current polling showing Trump beating out Biden in a hypothetical race, nearly a year away from the election, is “somewhat of a mirage.”

However, he would not say directly if he believes Trump would lose against Biden in another matchup

“My fear is doing 2024 with a rematch would have a lot of the same dynamics that we had in 2020,” he said.

And when Karl sought a direct answer from DeSantis on Trump’s moral character, the governor pivoted to his primary race pitch.

“For me, leadership is not about yourself, it’s not about showmanship or any of that,” he said. “It’s about producing results. So, when you make promises, do you deliver? And if you break the promises, then that’s not good leadership.”

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Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, one of President Joe Biden’s top surrogates, on Sunday downplayed Biden’s continued poor polling ahead of a likely rematch with former President Donald Trump in the 2024 race.

Pritzker’s comments come after a new ABC News/Ipsos survey found Biden’s approval rating sitting at a meager 33%, with the public reporting widespread economic discontent.

“Things are getting better in this country — and over the course of an election year, as the economy continues to improve, you’re gonna see poll numbers improve too,” the governor told ABC News “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl.

“I think your poll is a bit of an outlier, but here’s what I’ll tell you: This battle hasn’t even been joined yet. You’ve got a bunch of Republicans, MAGA Republicans, espousing things that are not good for the American public that are on the stage now,” Pritzker added. “And it’s not until they choose a nominee will we truly be in this battle. And then it’s a choice.”

Biden and allies like Pritzker have increasingly sought to cast the next presidential race as a referendum on Trump, highlighting issues like Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his support for abortion restrictions.

Republicans say the White House’s record shows failures on immigration, inflation and more.

“The truth of the matter is, this [the 2024 election] is going to be won among independents, and independents understand that, as Democrats do, that it’s the Republicans that are trying to take your freedoms away,” Pritzker argued on Sunday.

Asked about Trump choosing not to sign a voluntary candidate pledge in Illinois that he would not advocate for overthrowing the government — which many other candidates sign — Pritzker said it was more evidence of Trump’s unfitness for office.

“We just can’t afford to have a president who is acting in unconstitutional fashion, and in his own self-interest,” he said.

The Illinois Democrat also swatted away the persistent concerns about Biden’s age. At 81, he is the oldest-ever president. Trump is 77.

Citing the new ABC/Ipsos poll, Karl pressed Pritzker: “Just 28% think that President Biden has the mental sharpness to effectively serve for another term. So how does he address those concerns, those very real concerns, that voters have?”

“Maybe we ought to start by just acknowledging that Joe Biden has years of experience — that when you’re talking about someone’s age, you’re also talking about the wisdom that they gained over many years and how they’ve demonstrated their empathy that they’ve learned from so many experiences,” Pritzker said. “Joe Biden and Donald Trump are roughly the same age. Do you think Donald Trump has learned empathy in his life? He has not.”

Karl further pressed Pritzker on how Biden should handle historically high migrant crossings at the southern border, an issue Trump and other conservatives have been highlighting.

Pritzker maintained that it was Democrats, not Republicans, who have been pushing for major immigration changes and pointed to ongoing negotiations on Capitol Hill.

“My hope is that they’ll get something done. But not enough has been done, there’s no doubt about that. And I think that the president needs to do more. The Congress needs to do more,” he said.

He criticized efforts by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to transport migrants from his state to Democratic areas, particularly in light of the brutal winter weather battering parts of the country. Abbott has criticized Democrats’ handling of immigration and said border states like Texas suffer because of it.

“He does not care about people,” Pritzker shot back at Abbott on “This Week.”

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The 2024 primary season begins with Donald Trump well ahead of his Republican opponents on key measures of popularity, while Joe Biden’s job approval rating has dropped to a low for any president in the past 15 years, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds.

With the Iowa caucuses Monday, the national survey finds Trump especially well rated by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents on three metrics: having the best chance to win in November, being a strong leader and being the party’s most qualified candidate.

Trump also leads his Republican opponents, by less of a margin, on two other attributes — empathy (i.e., understanding the problems of people like you) and shared values. And seven in 10 Republicans and GOP leaners report a favorable opinion of Trump overall.

In all, 72% of Republican-aligned adults would be satisfied with Trump as the nominee, similar to 75% in May. Sixty-one percent would be satisfied with Ron DeSantis. Others score lower — Nikki Haley, satisfactory to 48%; Vivek Ramaswamy, 44%; Chris Christie (who withdrew Wednesday), 23%; and Asa Hutchinson, 17%.

See PDF for full results.

Satisfaction is harder to find among political moderates, who account for about three in 10 Republicans and GOP leaners. They’re 21 points less likely than conservatives to express satisfaction with Trump, 30 points on DeSantis and 22 points on Ramaswamy. These gaps essentially disappear for Haley, Christie and Hutchinson.

Compared with Trump on the Republican side, considerably fewer Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would be satisfied with Biden as their party’s nominee, 57% — a reflection of his weak ratings overall and on issues including the economy and immigration.

This survey was produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos Public Affairs via its online, probability-based KnowledgePanel®. Past polls used for comparison were conducted by telephone, with efforts in this study to minimize differences; that said, mode effects may be a factor in some cases. The survey, fielded in English and Spanish, includes a robust sample of 2,228 respondents.

GOP CONTEST — Trump’s advantages in the Republican contest are particularly striking in terms of perceived electability and leadership. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say he’s the candidate with the best chance of getting elected in November. That plummets to 12% for Haley, 11% for DeSantis and single digits for the rest.

Nearly as many, 65%, peg Trump as the strongest leader in the GOP lineup, again dropping precipitously for his opponents.

Fewer, but still 54%, say he is the candidate best qualified to serve as president. Fewer than half, 46%, say he best understands the problems of people like them and essentially as many, 45%, pick Trump as the candidate who best represents their own personal values. DeSantis and Haley score in the teens on these measures.

An additional 10% pick Ramaswamy as the candidate who best understands their problems. On all other measures, preferences for Ramaswamy, former candidate Christie and Hutchinson all are in single digits.

DeSantis and Haley trail Trump in favorability as well. Compared with Trump’s 71%, 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents see DeSantis favorably and 46% say the same for Haley. After all her months of campaigning, 22% still don’t offer an opinion of Haley; it’s 13% for DeSantis, vs. 1% for Trump.

There are some notable differences among groups. Republicans and GOP-leaners who have a four-year college degree are less likely than non-graduates to say Trump is best on each of the attributes tested. Most strikingly, just 27% of those with a college degree say Trump best understands the problems of people like them, compared with 57% of those without a four-year degree. There’s a similar 27-point gap by education in saying Trump “best represents your own personal values,” 24 points in saying he’s best qualified, 16 points in seeing him as the strongest leader and 10 points in seeing him as most electable.

Additionally, white evangelical Protestants, a core Republican group, are 11 points less apt than their non-evangelical counterparts to say Trump best represents their values, 40% vs. 51%, a slight difference given sample sizes. At the same time, Trump’s overall favorability rating is higher among evangelicals than in other religious groups, suggesting they’re using a different gauge than shared values to assess him.

BIDEN/TRUMP — A Biden/Trump general election, if that’s the outcome of the primary season, would represent a battle of markedly unpopular candidates. Among all adults, Biden’s approval rating is just 33% in this poll, worse than Trump’s low as president (36%) and the lowest since George W. Bush from 2006-2008. Fifty-eight percent disapprove of Biden’s work.

Among groups, just 31% of women now approve of Biden’s work in office, a new low (as do 34% of men). He won 57% of women in 2020.

He’s at 28% approval among independents, a customary swing voter group; a low of 32% among moderates; and a low of 41% among college graduates, 10 points off his career average in that group.

Further, Biden’s approval rating is 21 points below average among Black people and 15 points below average among Hispanic people, compared with 6 points among white people; more Black people, in particular, offer no opinion.

There’s a striking difference among Black people by age in their views of Biden: He has an approval rating of 65% among Black people age 50 and up, dropping sharply to 32% among Black people younger than 50. Age gaps are not apparent among white or Hispanic people.

Trump’s retrospective job rating is better than Biden’s, but still not positive — looking back, 41% approve of how he handled his presidency, a 7-point drop from four months ago. That includes a 13-point drop among men, with no meaningful change among women; and a 10-point drop among independents.

Another issue for Trump is the question of his ballot access. As reported Friday, 56% of Americans think the U.S. Supreme Court should either order Trump off the ballot in all states (30%) or let each state decide on its own (26%), given his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

FAVORABILITY AND ATTRIBUTES — Personal assessments are about equally negative for both men. Just 33% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Biden — down sharply from 50% the summer before the 2020 election — and about as few, 35%, express a favorable view of Trump. (It’s 28% for DeSantis and Haley alike.)

Biden leads Trump, by 15 points, in one of three attributes tested in the survey — being honest and trustworthy. Forty-one percent say this describes Biden, vs. 26% who say it applies to Trump. That’s down from a high of 38% for Trump, last reached in April 2017, three months into his presidency, and it’s a point from his low on honesty and trustworthiness.

Trump comes back, though, with advantages in two other areas. Forty-seven percent say he has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president, compared with 28% who say this of Biden. And more, 57%, say Trump has the physical health necessary to serve, again compared with 28% for Biden.

Trump’s ratings for mental sharpness and physical health both are down 7 points from last May. Similarly, Biden’s rating for health is down 5 points, and for mental sharpness, 4 points.

THIRD PARTY? — If Biden and Trump were the major-party nominees, 37% say they’d be likely to seriously consider a third-party candidate for president. Fewer, however, say they’d be very likely to do so – 15%. Results are identical among registered voters.

Readiness to seriously consider a third-party candidate in a Biden-Trump rematch peaks at 51% among independent women and moderate women alike. It’s 11 points higher among 2020 Biden voters than 2020 Trump voters, 37 vs. 26%. At the same time, it’s 46% among those who did not vote in 2020, a group that’s less likely than others to turn out this year.

ECONOMY/ISSUES — Broad economic discontent is a key force in current political attitudes. Given 2022’s 40-year high in inflation, just 13% of Americans now say they’ve gotten better off financially since Biden took office; 43% instead say they’re not as well off, a point from the 37-year record set in September. For comparison, in the middle of Trump’s term in office, just one-third as many people, 13%, said they were not as well off.

It follows that just 31% approve of how Biden is handling the economy, while 56% disapprove.

Another question explores why economic attitudes are so glum. Given a choice, 24% say “the economy is in good shape, given low unemployment and rising wages.” Far more — 71% — say “the economy is in bad shape, given higher prices and interest rates.”

unhappy with the economy are more likely to criticize the incumbent president. People who are aligned with the incumbent president are less apt to criticize the economy. So it is in this poll; 90% of Republicans say the economy is in bad shape, as do 74% of independents, compared with 49% of Democrats.

That said, Biden has a tepid 65% approval rating among Democrats for handling the economy, a career low.

The economy isn’t Biden’s only shortfall. His rating for handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border is especially low — just 18% approve, about half what it was in spring 2021, while 63% now disapprove. Biden has the lowest rating on immigration for any president in past ABC News/Washington Post polls to ask the question since January 2004 (with various changes over time in question wording).

Biden also gets a poor rating for handling the war between Israel and Hamas, with 26% approving and 48% disapproving; a substantial 25% don’t express an opinion.

That result might reflect frustration with the situation, not so much with Biden, since 43% also say the United States is doing about the right amount to support Israel and 39% say it’s doing about the right amount to help protect Palestinian civilians – both well higher than Biden’s approval for handling the situation.

About three in 10 say the United States is doing too much to support Israel; about two in 10 say it’s doing too little. These are roughly reversed in terms of protecting Palestinian civilians.

Thirty-seven percent of white evangelical Protestants think the U.S. is doing too little to support Israel, well higher than this view in other religious groups. Sample sizes of Muslims and Jews are too small for reliable analysis.

A final result, also on the international front, suggests an easing in criticism of U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. The share of Americans saying the United States is doing too much to support Ukraine rose from 14% in April 2022 to 41% in September; it’s down to 34% in this poll. An open question is whether that reflects recognition of Ukraine’s need for help — or the fact that further aid has been blocked in Congress.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Jan. 4-8, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,228 adults. Partisan divisions are 25-25-41 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2.5 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

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(IOWA) — Weather continues to impact the schedule of presidential candidates heading into the Iowa caucuses as former President Donald Trump has now canceled three out of his four in-person commit to caucus rallies.

Instead, Trump will hold a series of telerallies and is still expected to go forward with his in-person appearance at his commit to caucus rally in Indianola, Iowa.

“I’ll get there sometime around Saturday night or something, one way or the other I’m getting there. You have the worst weather I guess in recorded history, but maybe that’s good because our people are more committed than anyone else,” Trump said in a video message posted on X shortly after his campaign announced the schedule adjustments.

The video comes as the campaign had to cancel four surrogate events they had planned this week as Trump made voluntary court appearances on Tuesday and Thursday.

Trump was in Iowa on Wednesday for a Fox News town hall, but his last campaign event was on Jan. 6, where he delivered remarks in Newton and Clinton.

The four-stop Iowa swing this weekend would have served as the final boost for Trump in the final days of Iowa caucuses, during an election cycle when the former president has had a lighter campaign schedule compared to some of his GOP rivals.

So far this cycle, Trump has visited Iowa 21 times, compared to other Republican presidential hopefuls, who have visited the Hawkeye state dozens of times.

Yet still, Trump remained determined on Friday to make the most out of the situation.

“It’s gonna be a little bit of a trek. Nobody knows how exactly we’re gonna get there, but we’re gonna figure it out,” Trump continued in his video message.

Just as the campaign was announcing the cancelation of his rallies, Trump joined conservative radio show “The Mark Levin Show” to explain that he had to cancel the events because of the weather.

Now, Trump is scheduled to join three telerallies this weekend: One each on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Also on Monday – ahead of the caucuses – Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle are scheduled to campaign on behalf of Trump in Ankeny.

As the state braces for dangerous sub-zero temperatures and a once-in-a-decade blizzard, Trump and his team have remained confident at his chances at clinching the Hawkeye state while also tempering expectations.

“First of all, a win, a win is a win but anything over 12 [points] I think is a great night,” Trump senior campaign adviser Chris LaCivita told reporters Wednesday.

And despite the severe weather, Trump supporters ABC News spoke with were undeterred about going out to caucus for him on Jan. 15

“I’m definitely going to be there,” Nancy Iveling from Johnson, Iowa, who volunteers for the campaign, told ABC News. “We pray that the other people will show up too, regardless of the weather because this is an important cause and we need to win this race.”

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(WASHINGTON) — President Joe Biden on Friday publicly faulted Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for not informing him earlier that he was hospitalized for complications from cancer treatment.

When a reporter asked Biden whether it was “a lapse in judgment for him not to tell you earlier,” Biden replied, “Yes.”

At the same time, when asked by a reporter if he still had confidence in Austin, Biden replied he did.

Biden made his first comments on the controversy while visiting small businesses in battleground Pennsylvania on Friday.

Austin and the Pentagon are under immense scrutiny for initially keeping the White House and others in the dark for days about his health. The defense secretary underwent a minimally invasive surgical procedure for prostate cancer Dec. 22, which led to a urinary tract infection and serious intestinal complications.

Austin remained hospitalized this week, as the U.S. planned and led a coalition of retaliatory strikes against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen over the group’s attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Friday Austin’s performance was “seamless.”

“His participation was no different than it would be on any other given day, except that he was briefing the president on options and engaged in the discussions from the hospital,” Kirby said. “But he was fully engaged as he would be in any other event.”

The Pentagon, too, emphasized his role in the significant strikes against the Houthis — who’ve voted to retaliate.

Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Department of Defense press secretary, said Austin had two conversations with President Biden as well as daily calls with other officials about how to respond to the Houthis and how to execute the strikes.

“Then yesterday afternoon, the secretary gave the order to Central Command to initiate those strikes, and then monitored in real time with a full suite of secure communications,” Ryder said.

Austin, in a statement on the strikes against the Houthis, said the action was intended to disrupt the group’s abilities by targeting their unmanned aerial vehicle, uncrewed surface vessel, land-attack cruise missile and costal radar and air surveillance capabilities

He said the move “sends a clear message to the Houthis that they will bear further costs if they do not end their illegal attacks.”

The Pentagon’s communications breakdown when it came to Austin’s hospitalization is being independently investigated by the Department of Defense inspector general. The Pentagon has also ordered its own 30-day review of the circumstances, and the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee launched a formal inquiry.

ABC News’ Fritz Farrow and Selina Wang contributed to this report.

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(WASHINGTON) — The next week in Congress will be consumed by efforts to keep the lights on as Congress — for the third time in the past year — is running up against a funding deadline that could lead to a government shutdown.

With each looming deadline, the stakes grow higher and the politics more winding.

Here’s a quick catch up on where we are, and what’s at stake, a Friday’s funding deadline looms.

When is the government slated to shut down?

This upcoming funding deadline is unlike others we’ve seen because there are two different looming deadlines. This is because of the way House Speaker Mike Johnson crafted the last short-term bill that has been funding the government since mid-November.

The government is funded through 12 individual spending bills. When Congress needs more time to pass them, they often use a stopgap measure to bump back the expiration deadlines for all 12 of those bills.

But in November, Congress split them up.

So, on Friday, Jan. 19, funding will run out for programs under four of the 12 bills: Agriculture, Energy and Water, Military Construction-Veterans Affaifs, and Transportation-Housing and Urban Development.

If Congress doesn’t act to extend funds for those four bills by Friday, there will be a partial government shutdown.

Programs under the other eight bills, including defense spending, are currently slated to run out of funds two weeks later, on Feb. 2.

So what is Congress going to do to try to avert a shutdown?

This Congress, Republicans made it a goal to try to return the government funding process to regular order by passing the 12 appropriations bills individually. They’ve missed their deadline to do it twice, and are coming up on a third.

As was the case with the last two funding deadlines, the four bills that are running out of funds aren’t ready to be voted on yet, and Congress won’t be able to pass them before Friday. So increasingly, the Senate has signaled it’s going to once again aim to buy itself some additional time by punting the funding deadlines with a stop-gap measure.

On Thursday, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer teed the Senate up to take a procedural vote on a bill that would move the funding deadline when it returns to Washington on Tuesday. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Congress would “obviously” have to pass such a measure to keep the government open while lawmakers continue to toil over the final versions of appropriations bills.

It’s not yet clear how long of an extension the Senate will seek, or whether the stopgap bill they aim to push through this week will affect the four bills expiring on Friday or all 12.

What’s also unclear is whether Johnson is prepared to get his wily conference in order to move a stopgap measure through the House, where it’ll be a harder-fought battle.

Johnson previously said he would not approve any additional short-term funding bills, but Johnson also said he does not want the government to shut down next week. Given the crush that Congress is now under, he’ll likely have to make a choice.

It should be noted that a small contingent of Republicans are actually advocating for a shutdown. Because of the razor-thin Republican majority in the House, if Johnson does move on a short-term spending bill, he’ll need the help of House Democrats to pass it.

But wait, I thought a government funding deal was reached. Why won’t that stop a shutdown?

There was a pretty significant breakthrough in negotiations over full-year spending bills on Sunday. While a major step forward in getting the government funded, that deal won’t be done and dusted by Friday’s funding deadline.

Still, the deal, announced jointly by Schumer, Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, tees appropriators up to finally complete their work after months of squabbling between the House and Senate about how much all of the 12 government funding bills should cost.

The deal sets top-line spending for fiscal year 2024 at $1.65 trillion, the amount originally agreed to by President Joe Biden and then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during negotiations over the government’s debt limit last year. It preserves amounts for both defense and non-defense discretionary spending that Biden and McCarthy agreed on.

The question now is how long it will take appropriators to turn that handshake agreement into bills that can be voted on and passed. It’ll certainly be longer than the week until a partial shutdown.

In the days since the deal was agreed upon, Democrats have been touting it as a home run for their priorities that beat back GOP efforts to exact spending cuts.

“Both parties reached this agreement without resorting to the painful and draconian cuts that the hard-right, particularly those in the Freedom Caucus, clamored for,” Schumer said on the Senate floor earlier this week. “The hard-right wanted to put a chopping block on programs that helped millions of Americans.”

Johnson, meanwhile, has emphasized what he sees as wins for Republicans in the deal: claw-backs of about $6 billion in COVID-19 relief funds and an expedited $10 billion cut in funding to the IRS.

The speaker said the deal would allow Republicans to continue to fight for “conservative objectives” to be included in spending bills, but Schumer has vowed to push back on those “poison pill” additions.

How are Republicans reacting to that deal?

This doesn’t look great for Johnson.

After the top-line spending deal was announced last week, Johnson’s hard-liners were out in force bashing the deal for failing to exact the steep cuts to the federal budget they had hoped to secure.

In a closed-door meeting on Thursday, many urged the speaker to renegotiate the deal, but Johnson ultimately stood by it.

“Our top-line agreement remains. We are getting our next steps together — and we are working toward a robust appropriations process. So, stay tuned for that to develop,” Johnson said.

The move has been enough to anger his right flank, creating a potential vulnerability for Johnson. Former Speaker McCarthy was ousted from his position atop the conference for taking similar moves to keep the government open without demanding spending cuts.

There does not seem to be as much of an appetite from House Republicans to dethrone Johnson this time around. He’s been in the role for less than three months.

But Johnson will likely have to do something to regain favor with his most right-leaning members, or he could face some sort of repercussion.

What about the southern border and Ukraine aid?

Congress has for months been negotiating over border policy changes in hopes that an agreement over them will unlock Republican support for additional aid to Ukraine and Israel, something Republicans conditioned their support upon.

As those negotiations continue, they do so both separate and apart from the ongoing debate over government spending.

But as tension around both issue areas heats up, some Republicans have sought to tie them together by calling for a government shutdown until the condition at the southern border improves.

“The border — is it something a beach worth dying on — I say yes it is,” Rep. Tim Burchette, a Tennessee Republican, said Friday.

But many Republicans want the two to remain separate, as do Democrats who are working to negotiate a border deal.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., who has been leading Senate negotiations over border policy changes, said those threatening to cause a shutdown over the border were likely never going to support either a bipartisan border or a government funding bill in the first place.

“That’s coming from Republicans who will never ever vote for a border deal, a Ukraine funding deal or a budget,” Murphy said. “So like, at some point, you have to know who the coalition of the willing is, and their opinions really matter, and there’s Republicans and Democrats that are willing to compromise on border and on budget. There are some that aren’t. And so we’ve got to listen to the people that are actually willing to compromise.”

ABC News’ Lauren Peller contributed to this report

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