Politics

(NEW YORK) — Six in 10 Republicans back former President Donald Trump as their party’s leader, slightly more than the share of Democrats who line up behind President Joe Biden’s leadership of their party — a sign of Trump’s lasting strength in his party as the midterm primary season revs up.

Nearly a year and a half after he left the presidency, Trump’s influence is extensive, albeit not monolithic: 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the GOP should follow his leadership, while 34% prefer a new direction.

See PDF for full results, charts and tables.

Notably, that slightly exceeds backing for Biden’s leadership within his party, 53-38% in this ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Support for Trump within the GOP, moreover, has held up since he left office: The 60% who favor his leadership now is essentially the same as it was in an ABC/Post poll in mid-January 2021, 57%, shortly after Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol. That said, it’s down from 76% in a similar question in February 2018.

Indiana and Ohio go to the polls Tuesday and the spring/summer midterm primary season accelerates from here, with a dozen primaries and a runoff this month. Tuesday’s most-watched race pits Trump-endorsed candidate J.D. Vance in the Ohio Republican primary for U.S. Senate against several other front-runners who likewise have sought to embrace Trumpism.

Jan. 6

Trump holds intra-party support even as a slim majority overall continues to favor charging him with a crime related to the Capitol riot. At the same time, the public divides evenly on the work of the House committee investigating the incident.

Americans split 40-40% on whether the committee is or is not conducting a fair and impartial investigation of the riot; a substantial 20% have no opinion in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. Partisan divisions on the question are sharp.

More overall, 52%, say Trump should be charged with a crime for his role in the riot. That’s similar to results just a week after the attack, when 54% said he should be charged specifically with inciting a riot. Notably, nearly a quarter of those who think Trump should be charged with a crime don’t see the House committee’s investigation as fair and impartial.

Partisans

Evaluations of the House committee’s investigation of the riot divide along party lines. Sixty-eight percent of Democrats think the committee is conducting a fair and impartial investigation; a similar seven in 10 Republicans say it’s not doing so. Independents are split, 39-38%.

Trump-aligned Republicans and Republican leaners — those who say the party should follow his leadership — are among the least apt to see the committee as fair and impartial, with just 10% saying so. That rises to 27% of those who’d prefer GOP leaders go another way.

On the Democrats’ side, those less wed to Biden’s leadership are far less apt to see a fair and impartial investigation, 48% vs. 78% among those backing his direction.

Trump Republicans and Biden Democrats

Beyond the riot, opinions on the standard-bearers split each party along demographic and attitudinal lines.

Trump-aligned Republicans and Republican leaners tend to be older and more conservative than those who’d like the GOP to take a different direction. Six in 10 Trump Republicans are 50 and older, compared with 39% of their counterparts. Sixty-nine percent of Trump Republicans identify as conservatives, including 39% as strong conservatives. That falls to 46% conservatives, and 15% strong conservatives, among those who’d have party leaders follow a different path.

Most in both groups disapprove of Biden’s performance in office, but strong disapproval is significantly more intense among Trump Republicans, 93%, vs. 63% among other Republicans and GOP leaners, one in five of whom in fact approves of Biden’s work.

Age gaps on the Democratic side are more dramatic: Just 20% of Biden-aligned Democrats are younger than 35, compared with 52% of those who’d like to see the party move away from the president. In addition to being older, Biden Democrats are more likely to be moderates, have higher incomes and be more educated than other Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

Those demographic differences align with a major rift on economic issues between the two. Just 46% of those who want to see the party move in a different direction approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, compared with 81% of Biden Democrats. Biden Democrats also are more apt to say good jobs are available in their community, and are far less apt to express upset about inflation.

Ultimately, Trump Republicans and Biden Democrats share a characteristic that suggests they’ll continue to hold sway: They’re both more likely than others to be registered to vote and to say they’re certain to vote in November.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone April 24-28, 2022, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,004 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 29-25-40%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

Copyright © 2022, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

(WASHINGTON) — Ohioans head to the polls Tuesday to vote in Democratic and Republican primaries, featuring multiple hotly contested races, including battles for governor, secretary of state and U.S. Senate.

The race to replace Sen. Rob Portman, who is retiring, features a crowded Republican primary in which former President Donald Trump’s endorsement powers will be tested.

In the GOP Senate primary, almost all the candidates have centered their campaigns around being a Trump conservative. But it was a “never-Trumper” turned Trump ally, J.D. Vance, who scored Trump’s coveted endorsement, upending the race.

In the days leading up to the Ohio primary, Club for Growth, a conservative anti-tax group backing Republican candidate and former Ohio treasurer Josh Mandel, released an ad attacking Vance and questioning Trump’s endorsement of him.

The ad features previous comments from Vance criticizing Trump supporters by saying they voted for the former president for racist reasons.

Other notable Republicans vying for the nomination include Mike Gibbons, a wealthy businessman, Jane Timken, former chairwoman of the Ohio GOP, and Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan.

Unlike his opponents, Dolan has distanced himself from Trump, saying his campaign is focused on Ohioans and that Republicans focusing on the results of the 2020 election are taking the wrong approach.

On the other side of the aisle, three candidates are running in the House Democratic primary. Rep. Tim Ryan, who briefly ran for president in 2020 and has long represented the working class Youngstown area, is the clear frontrunner. The other candidates in the race are Traci Johnson and Morgan Harper.

In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who is seeking a second term, is favored to win. He faces a spirited faceoff with members of his own party who were disappointed with his relatively strict response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Republicans looking to replace DeWine include former U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, former state Rep. Ron Hood and Joe Blystone, a farmer who jumped into the race. Trump has not endorsed in the contest, but Renacci has campaigned on Trumpism and has cited Trump’s support of him in 2018 during his failed campaign for Senate.

Ohio’s secretary of state race has received more attention than in previous election cycles. A greater focus has been placed on the top election position of overseeing and validating election results following the 2020 election. ​​Ohio GOP Secretary of State Frank LaRose faces a primary challenger in John Adams. Adams has expressed unfounded doubts about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results, whereas LaRose has danced around the issue.

LaRose acknowledged President Joe Biden as the legitimate president, but his campaign borrows Trump’s rhetoric of “protecting elections,” and LaRose has campaigned on fighting voter fraud despite no evidence it is a widespread problem. Trump endorsed LaRose and is considered likely to win and continue on to the general election.

Multiple House races will play out throughout the state Tuesday but the rematch between Rep. Shontel Brown and Nina Turner for Ohio’s 11th Congressional District will be one of the most closely watched of the night. Brown was first elected in a special election following Marcia Fudge’s appointment to serve as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Brown and Turner’s rematch is viewed as a reflection of the divisions between the Democratic Party’s progressive and establishment wings. Progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont have endorsed Turner. Biden, however, endorsed Brown on Friday, calling her “an ardent advocate for the people of Ohio and a true partner in Congress.”

Turner and Brown approached the campaign trail from different ends of the Democratic political spectrum. Turner, a former co-chairwoman of Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, has heavily criticized the Democratic Party and Biden in the past and her previous loss to Brown was seen as a win for the Democratic establishment. On Monday night, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a leading left-wing voice, threw her support behind Turner.

Over 100,000 votes have already been cast statewide, and 182,000 absentee ballots had been requested as of the end of early voting on April 22, according to LaRose.

“As I’ve visited county boards of elections this month during early voting and spoken with voters, what I’ve seen firsthand are the high standards of accessibility and security which make our state a national model,” the secretary of state said in a statement reporting early voting numbers.

Due to an ongoing redistricting litigation battle still playing out in the state, Tuesday’s primary in Ohio will not feature legislative races for the state House or Senate. Voters will cast ballots for governor, attorney general, secretary of state, auditor, U.S. House and U.S. Senate. A second primary will be held for legislative races, though no date has been set, according to LaRose’s office.

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(WASHINGTON) — The parents of Austin Tice, an American journalist and Marine Corps veteran abducted in Syria, have already been waiting almost a decade for their son to return home. After a public plea for support over the weekend, President Joe Biden wasted no time, saying on Monday he would meet with them “today.”

White House press secretary Jen Psaki provided more details on the meeting after it took place, saying in a statement that “the president reiterated his commitment to continue to work through all available avenues to secure Austin’s long overdue return to his family.”

Psaki added that Biden’s national security team “will remain in regular contact” with the Tice family, as well as the families of other hostages.

The heightened attention to Tice’s case comes after the head of the White House Correspondents’ Association paid tribute to him during the group’s annual dinner on Saturday, asking his mother to stand and be acknowledged as the president looked on.

Later in the evening, during his own remarks, Biden said that he would like to meet with her and Tice’s father.

“After the President made those comments, obviously we went into action to work to set up the meeting on Sunday and see if Debra and Mark Tice — Austin’s parents — would be available,” Psaki said during a briefing.

That high-profile moment at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner took place just days after Trevor Reed, an American and former Marine held captive in Russia for nearly two years, was freed as part of an international prisoner exchange –a deal that fell into place weeks after Reed’s parents had a White House meeting with the president of their own.

The Tices have previously met with National Security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, but Psaki called the audience with Biden “an additional and more significant step.”

State Department Spokesperson Ned Price added that the meeting was a testament to the administration’s commitment to bring Tice back home, adding “he has been away from his family for far too long, and we’re doing everything we can to see that comes to a successful conclusion.”

But Tice’s imprisonment poses unique challenges. Reed’s release was the result of months of intense negotiations within Moscow. But the U.S. has not had a formal diplomatic relationship with Syria since the onset of the country’s civil war in 2012 — something Tice’s mother has voiced frustration over in prior interviews.

Despite that complication, Price said the U.S. could still secure Tice’s freedom.

“You didn’t hear us share the details of those consultations before [Trevor Reed] was released. We do believe that we can best and most effectively achieve potentially successful outcomes if we do have space to conduct private conversations,” Price said. “We of course don’t have, I would say, fully normal relations with Moscow at this time and yet we were able to have a discrete, focused set of discussions regarding the effort to free Trevor Reed that ultimately were successful.”

Tice disappeared in 2012 while covering the Free Syrian Army, a group of Syrian military officials who had joined the opposition against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. A month later, a video was released showing him blindfolded, removed from a car and led by armed men up a hill, saying “Oh, Jesus.” He has not been publicly heard from since.

The FBI is offering a reward of up to $1 million for information leading directly to the safe location, recovery and return of Tice.

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(WASHINGTON) — An apparent draft Supreme Court opinion obtained by Politico shows the panel’s conservative majority of justices is ready to overturn nearly 50 years of established abortion rights precedent since Roe v. Wade.

The document, which Politico said it obtained from a “person familiar with the court’s proceedings,” is marked “first draft” and dated Feb. 10, 2022 — two months after oral arguments were heard in the case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. ABC News has not independently confirmed the draft.

“Roe was egregiously wrong from the start,” writes Justice Samuel Alito, the opinion’s apparent author, in a copy of the draft posted online.

The leak is an extraordinary breach of Supreme Court protocol and tradition. Never before has such a consequential draft opinion been leaked to the public before publication.

Reached by ABC News, a Supreme Court spokeswoman declined to comment.

The Dobbs case involves Mississippi’s ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy — well before fetal viability, the longstanding dividing line established by the court before which states cannot restrict a woman’s access to the procedure.

During arguments in December, five of the justices hinted that they were ready to do away with the “viability standard” established by Roe and a subsequent 1992 decision, Planned Parenthood v. Casey.

An unnamed source familiar with the deliberations told Politico that Justices Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett all initially supported a ruling siding with Mississippi and “that line-up remains unchanged as of this week.”

The drafting of Supreme Court opinions, however, is a fluid and dynamic process, sources familiar with the internal operations have told ABC News. The document posted suggests a majority of justices is likely to side with Mississippi, but how broad a ruling will ultimately come down remains unclear.

Chief Justice John Roberts famously changed his vote late during deliberations over the Affordable Care Act in 2012, narrowly saving the law from being struck down. A Wall Street Journal editorial this month suggested that Roberts, who reveres established precedent and the court’s reputation, may be trying to convince one of his conservative colleagues to join him in a narrower opinion.

If Alito’s opinion were to hold, as written, it would dramatically upend abortion rights across America, effectively allowing each state to set its own policy.

“The Constitution does not prohibit the citizens of each State from regulating or prohibiting abortion,” the draft concludes. “Roe and Casey arrogated that authority. We now overrule those decisions and return that authority to the people and their elected representatives.”

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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(WASHINGTON) — The House Jan. 6 committee on Monday requested the cooperation of three more House Republicans linked to the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.

Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona and Mo Brooks of Alabama were among the group of far-right lawmakers who met with Trump at the White House in December of 2020.

Biggs’ name was also mentioned in connection with an effort by some House Republicans to seek presidential pardons after the riot, according to the committee.

Brooks also recently disclosed that Trump has repeatedly asked him to “rescind” the last election — in a statement made after the former president endorsed his opponent in the Alabama GOP Senate primary.

Rep. Ronny Jackson, R-Texas, Trump’s former White House doctor-turned-congressman, was mentioned in encrypted communications between members of the Oath Keepers militia group as someone who “needs protection,” according to court records. He also was in the House chamber at the barricade with Capitol Police officers as they held off rioters.

Already, the Jan. 6 committee has requested information and testimony from GOP Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California. All have refused to cooperate.

Committee members say the panel has been reluctant to issue subpoenas to sitting members of Congress to compel their cooperation, given the practical, political and legal ramifications of such an action.

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(WASHINGTON) — A federal judge overnight rejected a lawsuit brought by the Republican National Committee against the committee probing the Jan. 6 attack that had sought to block the panel’s effort to obtain fundraising information and other data related to attack on the Capitol.

The decision could impact multiple other lawsuits brought by various allies of former President Donald Trump who have sued to block the Jan. 6 committee from obtaining their records from telecommunications companies.

Judge Tim Kelly, a Trump appointee, rejected arguments by the RNC that the Jan. 6 committee does not have a valid legislative purpose, and further bolstered the panel’s legitimacy by rejecting Republican arguments that the panel’s makeup is flawed.

Referencing the Jan. 6 committee’s request for records from Nov. 3, 2020, to Jan. 6, 2021, Kelly in his decision wrote “that two-month window is plainly relevant to its investigation into the causes of the January 6 attack.”

An RNC official said the RNC will appeal the decision.

“While the RNC strongly disagrees with this ruling, our lawsuit compelled Nany Pelosi’s January 6th Committee to dramatically narrow the subpoena’s scope,” said RNC Chief Counsel Matt Raymer. “Nancy Pelosi’s attempted seizure of her political opponents’ campaign strategy cannot be allowed to stand, and we appreciate Judge Kelly continuing to temporarily block the subpoena. The RNC will continue to fight for the Constitutional rights of Republicans across the country and will appeal this decision.”

The lawsuit, which was brought in March, claims the subpoena unlawfully seeks “confidential information about the internal activities of the Republican Party and millions of its supporters, which is completely unrelated to the attack on the Capitol.”

A spokesperson for the Jan. 6 committee said the information being sought is relevant to the panel’s probe.

“Between Election Day 2020 and January 6th, the RNC and the Trump campaign solicited donations by pushing false claims that the election was tainted by widespread fraud,” Jan. 6 committee spokesperson Tim Mulvey said following the filing of the suit. “These emails encouraged supporters to put pressure on Congress to keep President Trump in power. Claims about a stolen election motivated rioters who stormed the Capitol on January 6th.”

The judge gave the RNC until May 5 to appeal the decision, which they indicated they’re likely to do.

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(WASHINGTON) — A unanimous Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the city of Boston violated the First Amendment when it denied a civic group from flying the Christian Flag from city hall flagpoles to mark Constitution Day.

The group — Camp Constitution — had argued that the third of three flagpoles in City Hall Plaza was a public forum, regularly used by private groups to mark commemorations and special events. The city approved more than 280 flag raisings over a dozen years but only rejected one, Camp Constitution’s Christian flag.

The city had argued that allowing the flag would have been impermissible government speech endorsing religion. Two lower courts sided with the city, but all nine Supreme Court justices disagreed.

Justice Stephen Breyer, writing for the court, said, “We conclude that, on balance, Boston did not make the raising and flying of private groups’ flags a form of government speech. That means, in turn, that Boston’s refusal to let Shurtleff and Camp Constitution raise their flag based on its religious viewpoint ‘abridg[ed]’ their ‘freedom of speech.'”

Breyer said the city’s “lack of meaningful involvement in the selection of flags or the crafting of their messages” suggested that the displays could not be reasonably considered government speech.

He left the door open, however, for the city to change its policies and restrict access to its flagpoles by private groups.

“Nothing prevents Boston from changing its policies going forward,” Breyer concluded.

In a series of concurring opinions, Justices Brett Kavanaugh, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch chided the city for discriminating against the Christian Flag.

“Under the Constitution, a government may not treat religious persons, religious organizations or religious speech as second-class,” Kavanaugh wrote.

Justice Alito argued that a more stringent standard is needed for limiting religious expression in public spaces.

“Government speech occurs if — but only if — a government purposefully expresses a message of its own,” he wrote.

Justice Gorsuch, joined by Justice Thomas, said the court needs to clarify that religious discrimination in public spaces cannot be tolerated.

“Boston’s travails supply a cautionary tale for other localities and lower courts,” he wrote.

Ahead of the decision, Boston suggested it may change its policy to disallow use of its flagpoles by private groups if the court ruled against it. City officials did not immediately respond to request for comment on the outcome in the case.

Hal Shurtleff, founder of Camp Constitution, told ABC News in January that he hoped a victory would allow the group to raise the flag in City Hall Plaza on Constitution Day in September.

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(WASHINGTON) — A unanimous Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the city of Boston violated the First Amendment when it denied a civic group from flying the Christian Flag from city hall flagpoles to mark Constitution Day.

The group — Camp Constitution — had argued that the third of three flagpoles was regularly available to mark commemorations and special events. The city approved more than 280 flyings over a dozen years but only rejected one — Camp Constitution’s Christian flag.

The city said allowing that flag would have been impermissible government speech, but Justice Stephen Breyer and the entire court disagreed.

Justice Breyer, writing for the court, said, “We conclude that, on balance, Boston did not make the raising and flying of private groups’ flags a form of government speech. That means, in turn, that Boston’s refusal to let Shurtleff and Camp Constitution raise their flag based on its religious viewpoint ‘abridg[ed]’ their ‘freedom of speech.'”

Copyright © 2022, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

(WASHINGTON) — Concerns about escalation and economic consequences of the war in Ukraine loom large in U.S. public opinion, even as majorities of Americans favor increased support for Ukraine, particularly in terms of humanitarian aid and further economic sanctions on Russia.

Fifty-five percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll also favor increased military support, even as 8 in 10 express worries about a wider war or the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia. As many also worry about direct U.S. military involvement, a step most by far rule out.

See PDF for full results, charts and tables.

Economically, two-thirds are very or somewhat concerned that sanctions against Russia will contribute to higher food and energy prices in the United States. Yet, two-thirds also support increasing such sanctions, a sign of commitment to Ukraine’s cause. Indeed, among those who are concerned about price impacts, 64% support sanctions anyway.

Assistance

Despite public concerns, majorities think the United States should take further action to support Ukraine on several measures in this poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates. Leading the list, three-quarters back increased humanitarian support, with, as noted, two-thirds for increased economic sanctions and 55% for greater military support. (As with humanitarian support, the nature of potential military support wasn’t specified.)

Notably, support for the United States providing each of these items reaches majorities across partisan lines, with single-digit differences between Democrats and Republicans on sanctions and military support. Democrats are 12% points more supportive of increased humanitarian aid.

Given another option, just 21% of Americans overall think the United States should take direct military action against Russian forces in Ukraine. This declines to 14% if it meant risking a nuclear war.

More generally, the public divides on whether the United States is doing too little (37%) or the right amount (36%) to support Ukraine. Fourteen percent say it’s doing too much. There’s a partisan split on this question, with 47% of Republicans saying the United States is doing too little, compared with 29% of Democrats. Independents fall in between.

Groups

Among other groups, women are 16 to 22 points more apt than men to express concern about each of the items tested — the war expanding into other countries, U.S. forces getting involved, Russia using nuclear weapons and sanctions raising food and fuel prices.

Concerns about price impacts of higher sanctions peak among more economically vulnerable Americans — those with no more than a high school diploma (77%) or with annual household incomes less than $50,000 (76%) — as well as among women (77%). Support for increased sanctions, in turn, is lower among less well-off adults, 60%, versus 77% in top-income households.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone April 24-28, 2022, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,004 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 29-25-40%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

Copyright © 2022, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

(JACKSON, Miss.) — One person was killed and five others were injured when multiple shooters opened fire Saturday at the Mississippi Mudbug Festival in Jackson, authorities said.

The person who died is suspected to have been one of the shooters and was shot by a law enforcement officer responding to the chaotic scene at the state fairgrounds, officials said.

Hinds County Sheriff Tyree Jones said other people injured were hospitalized in stable condition Sunday morning, including a police officer.

The second annual Mudbug Festival was billed as a family fun event with live bands, carnival rides and a crawfish boil and eating contest.

“It’s very devastating and very tragic,” Jones said. “This is what’s to be considered a very family-oriented event, where families come to enjoy entertainment and food. You have individuals with no regards for the lives and safety of those attending the event. I think that is a very cowardly and selfish act to involve so many innocent people that are here to have fun and enjoy themselves.”

Two juveniles were detained, but no charges have been filed in the incident, authorities said.

Investigators found two rifles and a pistol at the scene, according to ABC affiliate station WAPT in Jackson. Investigators also seized a vehicle for evidence, officials said.

The Mississippi Bureau of Investigation is assisting in the probe due to an officer being involved in the shooting.

“We will find out exactly what happened. We will find out who’s all involved and they should be held accountable and responsible for this very reckless incident,” Jones said.

Sunday’s events at the Mississippi Mudbug Festival, which was supposed to be the festival’s final day, have been canceled, according to organizers.

This year’s Mudbug Festival featured musical headliners, including Blue Oyster Cult and Laine Hardy. Blues musician Bobby Rush had been scheduled to close out the festival with a performance Sunday night.

Saturday’s shooting marked at least the fifth time in less than a year that gunfire has erupted at entertainment events across the nation, including one on April 3 that left one person dead and 11 injured at a concert in Dallas. On Jan. 15, six people were shot at a concert in Eugene, Oregon.

Last May, 22 people were shot, two fatally, at a concert and birthday party at a banquet hall in suburban Miami, just days after a dozen people were shot at a concert in North Charleston, South Carolina.

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