(WASHINGTON) — The 2022 midterm elections are shaping up to be some of the most consequential in the nation’s history, with control of Congress at stake.
All 435 seats in the House and 35 of 100 seats in the Senate are on the ballot, as well as several influential gubernatorial elections in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democrats are defending their narrow majorities in both chambers. Republican control of either the House or Senate would be enough to curtail most of President Joe Biden’s agenda, and would likely result in investigations against his administration and even his family.
Key updates:
-Potential ‘firsts’ this Election Day
-Two poll workers fired due to ‘threatening’ social posts
-Maricopa County sees issues with tabulators
-DOJ monitors will stay outside of polling places in Florida
Here is how the news is developing. All times Eastern.
Nov 08, 7:04 PM EST
Polls start to close in some states
Polls have now closed in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.
Nov 08, 7:00 PM EST
Senate races: Young projected to win in Indiana, Scott in South Carolina
ABC News can project that Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., have held on to their Senate seats.
Their Democratic challengers are Thomas McDermott Jr. and state Rep. Krystle Matthews, respectively.
Nov 08, 6:41 PM EST
Harris talks up Dem candidates in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
Vice President Kamala Harris spent part of her day on radio shows expressing support for Democratic candidates in key races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
In a brief appearance on The Earl Ingram Show Tuesday morning, Harris pushed Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers’ reelection bid.
“He has cut taxes for working families. He’s lowered costs for small businesses in Wisconsin in Milwaukee, and he must be reelected because he really does stand for our democracy and for freedom and equality,” she said.
Harris also said electing Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to the Senate would play a crucial role in the president’s ability to sign the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act into law.
“It would be so important to put back teeth in the Voting Rights Act that folks marched and died for, and these are the things that are at stake,” she said.
In another radio interview later in the day on Philadelphia’s Evening WURDs, Harris urged voters in Pennsylvania to vote for Lt. Gov. John Fetterman for Senate, particularly as the Senate attempts to pass an assault weapons ban.
“Democrats understand the need to extend and to renew the assault weapons ban, and we need John Fetterman in the United States Senate to have the votes toward doing that,” she said.
Harris also called on voters to elect state Attorney General Josh Shapiro as the governor of Pennsylvania “because people have a right to live in safe communities” and not be threatened by gun violence, she said.
ABC News’ Armando Tonatiuh Torres-García
Nov 08, 5:43 PM EST
What preliminary exit poll results show so far
What’s the single most important issue among voters? Who do they trust to handle inflation? For ABC News’ analysis of preliminary exit poll results, head here throughout the night.
(WASHINGTON) — With FiveThirtyEight forecasting a slight edge for a GOP takeover in the Senate — and with momentum solidly behind Republicans — just what would that mean?
In short, big changes and a Biden presidency instantly having to play defense.
No ‘contract’
Senate Republicans, unlike their House counterparts, have not put out a “contract” or plan for what they would do if they take over, but in speeches and interviews and looking at who is poised to take the gavels at powerful Senate committees, some priorities seem clear.
For starters, inflation.
Laying the blame for historically high inflation at the feet of President Joe Biden and his unified Democratic government, Republicans have repeatedly called for an end to the “spending spree” in Washington.
It’s worth noting that some of that increased spending was related to trying to bring the U.S. economy back from a historic pandemic, action that began under former President Donald Trump. Still, Republicans have charged that Democrats went entirely too far with the American Rescue Plan that pumped nearly $2 trillion into the economy, fueling inflation already aggravated by the roiling supply chain crisis.
The situation was made worse with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Republicans have pointed to a handful of solutions, such as making some of the business tax cuts from their 2017 package — set to expire in the next few years — permanent, as well as, mounting an effort to roll back the new corporate minimum tax against larger corporations enacted in the recently-passed climate, health and tax bill by Democrats.
The boogeyman in many GOP ads the latter part of this midterm cycle has been the Democrats’ plan to beef up the IRS to go after tax cheats. It was a key way they planned to raise revenue to pay for their climate and health bill, but Republicans seized on it to falsely warn Americans that an “army of IRS agents” were coming for them.
The IRS commissioner, Charles Rettig, a Trump appointee, has tried to reassure lawmakers that the new resources would not be focused on middle income Americans, but the claims continued and oversight hearings are a sure bet. Republicans might even try to find a way to roll back that effort.
Whether or not any of this could have any effect on inflation remains to be seen. Usually tax cuts — in other words, less revenue for the federal government — are not seen as inflation-reducing. And while spending cuts are, the level of draconian cuts needed to make a dent are not likely to be approved by a majority of the new majority.
‘Drill, baby drill’
With gas prices soaring, Republicans laid into Democrats for clamping down on domestic energy production, and with Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso expected to resume the chairmanship of the Energy Committee, the focus almost surely will be squarely placed on that issue.
In that same vein, and with GOP anger at Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. for that deal he made with Democrats passing the Inflation Reduction Act having subsided, it is entirely possible that energy permitting reform will be back on the table but in a bipartisan way this time. That is actually something that might get done in the lame duck session.
Investigations ramp up
While Senate Republicans might not ramp up the number of investigations expected by their GOP counterparts in the House, the upper chamber’s new majority is expected to spin up quite a few of their own.
For starters, Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, who can be is expected to retake the gavel at the Judiciary Committee for a year, has already been looking into the affairs of the president’s first son and conservative lightning rod, Hunter Biden. His partner in the years-long effort, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson — who has been locked in a fierce contest to keep his seat — is expected to helm the powerful investigative subcommittee of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee known as the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI). It has a large budget for investigative staff, as well as subpoena power.
It’s unclear if the GOP duo can outrun the Justice Department on this one, though. Federal investigators have made clear they feel they have enough to charge Hunter Biden with financial crimes, sources told ABC News in early October, and a federal probe has been underway for quite some time.
Crime
Top of Grassley’s to-do list is also how to tackle the nation’s rising violent crime, a centerpiece of GOP campaigns this midterm season, and what to do about what conservatives see as a politicized Justice Department.
“All of the things that Republicans have been talking about that aren’t really getting a huge amount of attention in the Judiciary Committee will be a focus, particularly violent crime,” a GOP committee aide told ABC News.
Paul, Fauci and the origins of COVID
While it might seem as if the COVID-19 pandemic has lost its grip on the nation, conservative Sen. Rand Paul has some old scores to settle.
Paul, on track to win a third term this year, has promised to investigate the origins of the pandemic, a pet issue for the irascible conservative.
Running contrary to two previous scientific reports this summer on the origins of the virus pointing to a zoological connection from the Huanan Seafood Market, a recent report by GOP staff on the Senate panel Paul is set to chair, came to a different conclusion. The 35-page interim report concluded that the origin “was most likely the result of a research-related incident,” though the document specifically states, “This conclusion is not intended to be dispositive.”
The report does not mention anything about motive, as some conservatives have sought to espouse, claiming China may have weaponized a virus, nor does it mention any involvement of the frequent target of Paul’s ire, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci.
From practically the outset of the pandemic, Paul questioned the power of the virus and government mandates to try to contain it, repeatedly clashing in hearings with Fauci. All of it fed a “fire Fauci” movement in conservative circles. Fauci, who said he plans to retire at the end of Biden’s first term, has said he and his family have been the victim of threats.
Paul and his conservative counterparts in the House have all indicated Fauci’s retirement will not stop their push to have him testify and deliver documents related to their probes.
Social media platforms a target
Firebrand Sen. Ted Cruz is champing at the bit to take over at the Senate Commerce Committee. The Texas conservative, known to have 2024 presidential ambitions, is sure to capture the spotlight as he takes on social media platforms, a frequent target of his displeasure claiming widespread anti-conservative bias.
On his podcast, “The Verdict,” earlier this year, during the frenzied confusion amid billionaire Elon Musk’s attempted takeover of Twitter, Cruz said, “I think it is one of the most important moments for free speech in decades. This is a testing moment where Big Tech keeps getting more and more brazen, saying we can control everything you say; we can control everything you hear; we can control everything in your feed; we can control everything you listen to … suddenly Elon Musk came in and is threatening to tip over the apple cart.”
Of course, there is wide-ranging jurisdiction at this panel covering Commerce, Science, and Transportation issues. There are some GOP aides speculating that Cruz will cast a wide net.
“‘Science’ could cover practically anything,” one GOP leadership aide said cryptically.
Ukraine
Whereas House Republicans appear poised to make it more difficult to pass future foreign aid for Ukraine, their Senate counterparts are not expected to follow suit — at least not the vast majority.
In a recent statement, Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell — a full-throated supporter of Ukraine — said, “The Biden Administration and our allies need to do more to supply the tools Ukraine needs to thwart Russian aggression,” even urging that the aid be “expedited.”
Taking over at the Armed Services Committee, barring something unforeseen, will be Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, a McConnell ally.
Wicker, who has worn a Ukrainian flag pin on his lapel since Russia invaded, has fought for military equipment and ammunition to be sent, including MiG fighters and HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems).
In an interview with Gray Television earlier this month, the senator sounded a tone of bipartisanship on Ukraine funding.
“It’s a clear distinction between good and evil, between a war criminal who has no respect for the rights of people to people that are fighting for their own homeland,” said Wicker.
The southern border
Republicans have been hammering the administration and Democrats for what they say has been a dereliction of duty at the southern border. Many want a return to the hard-line policies under President Donald Trump.
At the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which has jurisdiction over border issues, the expected chairman, Sen. James Lankford, has pushed repeatedly for hearings.
In an April letter, Lankford and his fellow GOP committee members, wrote to the then-chairman Gary Peters, D-Mich., “The Biden Administration’s policies are directly contributing to the historic levels of illegal immigration. Administration officials must explain to the American people the rationale for their decisions, and what their plans are to deal with the consequences of their actions.”
The group demanded to have Attorney General Merrick Garland, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Chris Magnus, and Rochelle Walensky, CDC Director, among others.
That could prove a template for early hearings.
Judges
President Biden has seen a record 84 federal judges confirmed to the bench, according to the American Constitution Society, including one historic nominee to the Supreme Court. But once Republicans take over the Judiciary Committee, that pace is sure to slow, the scrutiny to mount.
Depending on how many nominees the panel’s current chairman, Dick Durbin of Illinois, can get cleared and on to full floor confirmation in the lame duck session, scores will still be pending.
There are expected to be 57 nominees pending, according to the ACS, a number that has vexed some progressive groups like Demand Justice.
But the issue that already has Democrats and their outside allies up in arms is the prospect of a Supreme Court vacancy in the next year of Biden’s presidency, a full year before presidential election season kicks off.
McConnell, who is expected to keep his position in the new Congress, has suddenly gone mum on whether or not he would stick with the normal practice in the Senate of considering Supreme Court nominees for the president of any party.
Vilified by Democrats for refusing to even consider President Barack Obama’s replacement for the late Justice Antonin Scalia, claiming it occurred in a presidential election year with Republicans in charge and voters should decide, McConnell has left everyone wondering if he might enact yet another new policy.
Asked by Fox News recently if he would allow consideration of a Supreme Court nomination if a vacancy occurred on his watch as majority leader next year, McConnell demurred.
“I’m not gonna announce what our agenda might be on appointments before we even become the majority. I hope we’re in a position to make a decision,” said McConnell.
It would have been easy to say yes. It is quite notable that he did not.
Making history
Speaking of McConnell, retaining his position as GOP leader would put him at the 15-year mark for his service as a Senate leader, both in the majority and minority. Next year, he will match the record set by the late Sen. Mike Mansfield, D-Mont. It’s widely believed the Kentucky Republican is focused on beating that record, making history, after which he might consider stepping aside, though he has made clear he intends to complete his full term as a senator which ends in 2027.
But it won’t all be smooth sledding for McConnell. Former President Donald Trump, who could announce a run for re-election soon after the midterms, has chosen to continue his attacks on the Republican leader, recently calling for his impeachment in a radio interview.
There is no mechanism for impeaching a senator and McConnell enjoys wide support in his conference, but it was a clear sign that the anger at the senator — unleashed in force after the GOP leader lambasted the former president for “practically and morally” sparking the Jan. 6 insurrection — is sure to continue, particularly with Trump more in the spotlight.
McConnell has largely chosen to ignore the attacks, though, as is his style, making light of one Trump nickname — “Old Crow” — telling reporters with a grin, “It’s my favorite bourbon.”
(WASHINGTON) — The results of the 2022 midterm elections will almost certainly not be called on election night, but instead in the days and weeks after polls close on Tuesday, according to election experts and officials.
This is normal, they said, because the results of a number of decidedly tight, consequential federal and statewide races will be counted on each state’s separate calendar for canvassing early and mail-in votes and ensuing recounts or challenges to results that could further prolong the certification of votes.
“I would highly doubt that we would know who controls both chambers of Congress by the end of Election Day. I think we need to be prepared for an Election Day that will likely stretch over the week,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.
“It’s not like the olden days of us getting results, even if it’s late into the night. I think this [getting official results late after Day] is going to be something that becomes a rule instead of the exception,” Koning said.
The process by which American elections are tallied is not new, election officials said, but the timeline for results to become official has swelled in recent years. That’s because of changes in American voting preferences, with many states permanently adopting expanded mail-in and early vote options initially enacted during the height of COVID-19 in 2020, coupled with few changes in state law that allow those early votes to be counted sooner and therefore quicker.
“The election does not ever and has not ended on Election Day… the election ends when all the legal votes have been counted and certified,” said David Alexander Bateman, an associate professor of government at Cornell University.
“The only thing new is that it’s just taking a little bit longer because of the increase in mail-in ballots and failure of some states, Pennsylvania especially, to expand authority to canvass and precanvass mail in ballots to make sure they could count them as quickly as they could,” he said.
Kim Wymaan, the Senior Election Security Advisor for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, noted that though news outlets call races on election night, it takes days and weeks to have official results.
“When the polls close, election officials remain in action — counting, processing, and conducting audits to be sure that the final, official results are accurate,” she said.
“It is precisely because of this rigorous counting and verification that voters can and should have confidence that their vote will be counted,” Wymaan added.
Another large component of the lag in announcing official election results will be the race recounts and candidates who may challenge the results of their contest that may arise after polls close and unofficial tallies trickle in.
And states like Georgia trigger automatic runoff elections between the two top candidates if no one candidate receives over 50% of the vote on Nov. 8. A recount could also be requested by the second-place candidate if the difference between them and the top candidate is not more than 0.5% of the total votes cast in the race.
Given the current polarized political climate, Koenig said she anticipates a number of candidates who will contest results.
“I don’t see any candidate is going to go down without a fight this cycle if the results are anywhere near close on either side of the aisle,” she said.
In the days leading up to Election Day, several states with particularly competitive races have noted they expect to certify their results after the election.
In Pennsylvania, home to one of the most closely-watched Senate races, acting Secretary of State Leigh Chapman told reporters in a briefing on Monday that they don’t anticipate having unofficial results for “at least a few days.”
“We prioritize accuracy over speed,” Chapman said, noting that fully certified results won’t come until the Nov. 28 deadline under law. In Pennsylvania, counties will participate in “marathon counting,” meaning that they can start processing votes at 7 a.m. on Election Day, but counting still must begin at 8 p.m., after polls close.
“The delay doesn’t mean anything bad is happening,” she said.
The public and media should “not expect complete results on election night,” she added.
In Michigan, it may take until about 24 hours after the polls close before all votes are counted and the unofficial results are reported, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said at a press conference last week.
“Some jurisdictions may be done more quickly, but barring any disruption, we expect it will take until Wednesday late in the afternoon or evening for all jurisdictions to finish counting and reporting their results,” said Benson.
Benson added that the state has seen “meritless lawsuits,” and warned that “many of the seeds of doubt” will perhaps resurface after Election Day.
“We’re seeing the first of what we have seen for years. Meritless lawsuits used to get one’s name in the news and gain media attention caused confusion and sow seeds of doubt among voters. While these suits are ultimately resolved by the judges in accordance with the law, voters can expect that many of the seeds of doubt that they will plant will resurface potentially after the election,” said Benson.
In Arizona — which features a competitive Senate race and a tight contest for the governorship with Kari Lake, an election denier, as the Republican nominee — a high density of mail-in ballots may delay the release of official results. A recount is also more likely in Arizona, after the Republican legislature eased the threshold for an automatic recount to 0.5 percent after the 2020 election.
Nevada has given counties until Nov. 12 to receive mail ballots that are postmarked by Election Day, with the secretary of state’s spokesperson Jennifer Russell telling the Las Vegas Sun that it could take a few days following the election to announce unofficial results. Counties have until Nov. 18 to certify results.
Nevada voters and candidates can request recounts which may be utilized as the races remain tight.
(WASHINGTON) — Polling places across the country will be bustling with crowds of voters on Election Day, Nov. 8. It can be easy to get confused or lost in the frenzy.
Here’s what voters should know to help get through the day smoothly:
How to vote
It’s recommended that voters check local election websites, or resources from the National Conference of State Legislatures, to know what the rules of Election Day are for their state and region.
Firstly, the FBI warns of possible scams and bad faith actors that may target voters with inaccurate election dates, false voting qualifications and methods and more.
Election Day is always the first Tuesday after Nov. 1 — this year’s date is Nov. 8.
There is no option for the general public to vote online or by text, the FBI confirms on its website.
To vote on Election Day, you must go to your designated polling place. You can find where your polling place is located by putting in your home address in poll locators on websites including Vote.org, Google.com or on your local elections website.
If you’re in need of an accommodation for a disability or need help with voting using a minority language at your polling site, your polling place will likely offer special assistance, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. The agency recommends contacting your local elections office for details.
“Contact your local elections office for advice, materials in a specific language, information about voting equipment, and details on access to the polling place, including parking,” the agency states.
Local voter guides can help voters stay informed on who is on the ballot, what the candidates are advocating for and what ballot measures will be up for vote at election time. Your local voters guide can likely be found on your local election’s website or at VOTE411’s Personalized Ballot guide search. Sample ballots are also handy for knowing who and what is on the ballot.
USAGov, a federal service that curates government information, recommends bringing notes, a voter’s guide or a sample ballot with you into the voting booth — this is allowed, so voters can be sure of their choices for candidates and ballot initiative options.
However, some polling places may restrict the use of cellphones, so USAGov recommends bringing paper copies instead of using notes on your phone.
Many states won’t require you to bring your voter registration card to the polls, however the majority of them do expect some form of identification to vote in person.
The laws may have changed in recent years, so it’s recommended that voters check local elections rules on restrictions and identification.
Don’t forget your rights
The American Civil Liberties Union advises voters that if the polls close while you’re still in line, stay in line.
They say that many Election Day snafus should be remedied quickly — if a mistake is made on your ballot, you can ask for a new one and if the voting machines are down at your location, you are allowed to ask for a paper ballot.
If a poll worker says that a voter’s name is not on the list of registered voters, the ACLU recommends that voters ask the poll worker to double check the spelling of their name. The organization also recommends double checking that the voter is at the correct polling place.
If a poll worker still cannot find your name or if you cannot travel to the correct polling place, ask for a provisional ballot. Voters are entitled to a provisional ballot even if they aren’t in the poll book, ACLU states.
Election officials will investigate whether you are qualified to vote and registered — if you are, your provisional ballot will be counted.
If you are turned away or denied a provisional ballot, the ACLU recommends reporting the experience to local election officials or calling the Election Protection Hotline.
The hotline is run by the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law in case voters run into any issues on Election Day.
The hotline is available in several different languages — English, 1-866-687-8683; Spanish: 1-888-839-8682; Arabic: 1-844-925-5287; For Bengali, Cantonese, Hindi, Urdu, Korean, Mandarin, Tagalog, or Vietnamese: 1-888-274-8683.
What voter intimidation looks like
“The goal of voter intimidation, on the other hand, is to deter or influence voting activity through threats to deprive voters of something they already have, such as jobs, government benefits, or, in extreme cases, their personal safety,” states the U.S. Department of Justice in a 2017 report.
Voter intimidation is a civil rights violation and it is illegal.
“Voter intimidation can vary and the federal and state protections are broad for that reason, seeking to protect voters against a number of different ways that voter intimidation could arise,” said Katie Friel, a fellow in the Brennan Center’s Democracy program. “For nearly all voters, it will be a calm and uneventful Election Day.”
A Georgetown Law fact sheet states that voter intimidate can look like violent behavior in or near a polling site, verbal or physical threats of violence, confrontations with voters while wearing official-looking uniforms, harassment, spreading false information about voting requirements or methods, and more.
If you see or experience voter intimidation, the ACLU urges voters to notify local election officials, document what you experienced, and call the U.S. Department of Justice Voting Rights Hotline at 800-253-3931 or the Election Protection Hotline.
The FBI asks that voters “help defend the right to vote by reporting any suspected instances of voter suppression” to a local FBI field office or at tips.fbi.gov.
If voters fear imminent violence, the ACLU recommends calling 9-1-1.
(WASHINGTON) — Eight more complaints of alleged voter intimidation at ballot box drop sites have been referred to local and federal law enforcement agencies by the Arizona secretary of state’s office, ABC News has learned.
The newest referrals bring to 18 the total number of harassment and intimidation complaints that Arizona officials have elevated to law enforcement since early voting began in midterm elections across the state.
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who is also the Democratic candidate for governor in Arizona, elevated the latest complaints to local law enforcement officials, the Arizona attorney general’s office, the Justice Department, and the FBI, officials said.
“Voters should be able to cast their ballot without fear of intimidation,” Hobbs’ spokesperson, Sophia Solis, said in a statement to ABC News. “We encourage anyone who experiences intimidation at a voting location to contact their county recorder, Secretary of State’s Office, or law enforcement.”
All but one of the complaints are related to alleged voter intimidation at ballot drop box sites. The other complaint is related to alleged harassment of election officials.
A federal judge last week banned members of a group accused of voter intimidation from coming within 75 feet of ballot drop boxes in Arizona. The ruling also prohibits members who openly carry firearms or wear visible body armor from coming within 250 feet of ballot boxes.
U.S. District Court Judge Michael Liburdi, in an unexpected reversal of an earlier ruling in a related case, granted a motion last Tuesday for a restraining order in a case consolidating a lawsuit brought by the nonprofit advocacy groups Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans and Voto Latino with a similar suit brought by the League of Women Voters of Arizona.
Both lawsuits accused Clean Elections USA and the group’s founder, Melody Jennings, of carrying out surveillance of voters in a “coordinated vigilante intimidation campaign” at ballot drop box locations, “with the express purpose of deterring voters … from depositing their ballots.”
According to the judge’s order, members of the group are prohibited from following voters who are delivering ballots to the drop box; speaking to or yelling at voters returning ballots to the drop box; sharing or posting information about voters who return ballots to a drop box; and taking photos or recording videos of voters dropping off ballots.
The group is also banned from accusing individuals of committing voter fraud solely based on the fact they deposited multiple ballots in a drop box, and from making false claims about Arizona laws that permit people to return ballots in a drop box on another person’s behalf in exceptional circumstances.
Addressing Clean Elections USA and its founder’s promotion of a false claim accusing some voters of being so-called “ballot mules,” Liburdi ordered Jennings to write a post on Truth Social stating that there are several reasons why voters in Arizona can legally return more than one ballot to a ballot drop box site. Per the judge’s order, Jennings’ post also included the relevant Arizona law on returning more than one ballot.
Jennings did not comment when contacted by ABC News.
The one report of alleged election worker harassment detailed a menacing message sent to three election employees. “Remember the French Revolution of 1799??” it said.
(WASHINGTON) — The 2022 midterm elections are shaping up to be some of the most consequential in the nation’s history, with control of Congress at stake.
All 435 seats in the House and 35 of 100 seats in the Senate are on the ballot, as well as several influential gubernatorial elections in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democrats are defending their narrow majorities in both chambers. Republican control of either the House or Senate would be enough to curtail most of President Joe Biden’s agenda, and would likely result in investigations against his administration and even his family.
Americans are already coming out in full force this cycle. As of Nov. 5, more than 38 million voters had already cast their ballot, according to data from the University of Florida’s U.S. Elections Project.
This is how the story is developing:
Nov 07, 11:27 PM EST
Trump teases ‘very big announcement’ for next week
On the eve of Election Day, former President Donald Trump teased Monday night that he will make a “very big announcement” on Nov. 15 at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida.
Trump was speaking at a final rally in Dayton, Ohio, for Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance and others.
While the former president did not specify the nature of the upcoming announcement, sources told ABC News last week that he could announce a 2024 presidential run as early as next week — though the sources cautioned that discussions about the specifics, including a date, were still fluid.
“We want nothing to distract from the importance of tomorrow,” Trump said at the rally.
Nov 07, 8:21 PM EST
Biden makes closing midterms pitch: ‘We’ll meet this moment’
Biden made one last campaign pitch to voters Monday night from a rally at Bowie State University in Maryland. This cycle, he warned, will shape “what the next couple of decades look like.”
“Let’s be clear, this election isn’t a referendum, it’s a choice,” he said at the event in support of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore. “It’s a choice between two very different visions of America.”
Biden listed legislative accomplishments from Democrats during his first two years — including low unemployment, job creation, infrastructure investments and more — before turning to criticism of “MAGA Republicans.”
“The hypocrisy is unbelievable,” he said, slamming GOP lawmakers who oppose student loan relief despite receiving business loans and debt cancellation during the coronavirus pandemic, or who touted aspects of the American Rescue Plan despite not voting in favor of the bill.
Biden also called out election deniers within the Republican Party, saying they only see two outcomes: “Either they win, or they were cheated.”
“Today, we face an inflection point,” Biden said as he closed his remarks. “One of those moments that comes around every three or four generations. We know in our bones that our democracy is at risk, and we know that this is your moment to defend it, preserve and protect it, choose it. We’ll meet this moment.”
Nov 07, 6:37 PM EST
Georgia officials overnighting absentee ballots to 1,000 voters who never received them
Voters who were never mailed their absentee ballot in Cobb County, Georgia, will still be able to vote, according to a new court ruling.
Approximately 1,036 voters in the county had requested a ballot but never received them. Ballots are supposed to be mailed within three days after election officials receive ballot requests. However, election workers in the county failed to upload absentee voting information to a ballot mailing system on Oct. 13 and Oct. 22.
Now, the Cobb County Board of Elections will send ballots to those voters Monday by overnight delivery, according to the court ruling. Those voters can mail their ballots provided they are postmarked by 7 p.m. on Nov. 8 and returned by Nov. 14. Email and text updates will be provided to those affected voters so they are able to track their ballot.
Voters affected by the error will also be able to vote in person Tuesday or by a federal write-in absentee ballot.
One of the main criticisms from Democrats regarding SB 202 — the sweeping elections bill signed by Gov. Brian Kemp last year — has been focused on mail-in ballots. Previously, voters were able to request absentee ballots 180 days before an election and the county could start mailing them out 49 days before Election Day. Now, voters can only request ballots within 78 days of an election and they can’t be mailed until 29 days before.
-ABC News’ Lalee Ibssa
Nov 07, 5:16 PM EST
Biden says Dems will ‘surprise the living devil out of a lot of people’
President Joe Biden said Monday he thinks Democrats will “surprise the living devil out of a lot of people” in the midterm elections.
“Imagine what we can do in a second term if we maintain control,” Biden said during a virtual Democratic reception.
“I know that sounds like a very high expectation,” Biden said, adding, “I’m optimistic.”
At a second Democratic reception Monday, the president said, “We’re going up against some of the darkest forces we’ve ever seen in our history. These MAGA Republicans are a different breed … this is not your father’s Republican Party. It’s a different deal.”
Biden added, “We have a shot at keeping the Senate, increase in it, and I am optimistic about the House, as well.”
-ABC News’ Jordyn Phelps
Nov 07, 4:56 PM EST
Unofficial Pennsylvania results not expected for ‘at least a few days,’ official said last month
Unofficial results for the midterm elections in Pennsylvania are not expected for “at least a few days,” Acting Secretary of the Commonwealth Leigh Chapman told reporters on Oct. 24.
“We need to set realistic expectations,” Chapman said, stressing that the public and media should “not expect complete results on election night.”
Pennsylvania is one of nine states that by law cannot begin processing mail-in and absentee ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day.
Voters with mistakes on their mail ballots have until Nov. 14 to cure them and military and overseas residents have until 5 p.m. on Nov. 15 to get their ballots in.
Chapman said fully certified results won’t come until the Nov. 28 deadline under law.
“We prioritize accuracy over speed,” Chapman said. “The delay doesn’t mean anything bad is happening.”
-ABC News’ Devin Dwyer
Nov 07, 3:14 PM EST
White House says Trump is not ‘our focus’ amid reports of 2024 bid
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday pushed back on questions about former President Donald Trump’s expected 2024 bid.
“I was asked this question the other day, and that’s not our focus,” she said.
Trump is leaning toward announcing a third run for the White House, possibly as early as the week of Nov. 14, sources with direct knowledge of the matter previously told ABC News.
At Monday’s briefing, Jean-Pierre also wouldn’t give any insight into whether Trump’s pending announcement will force Biden’s hand on making his own reelection decision. Biden has said he intends to run for a second term, though hasn’t made a formal decision.
“Again, I’m going to say what he has said many times and what I have said from here many times is that the president intends to run and I will just leave those words there,” Jean-Pierre told reporters.
-ABC News’ Cheyenne Haslett
Nov 07, 3:09 PM EST
White House says it’s ‘safe’ to go to the polls, doesn’t foresee threats
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Monday there were no “specific credible threats” about a possible uprising this election cycle. “The president has been briefed on the threat environment and directed that all appropriate steps be taken to ensure safe and secure voting occurs right in this process,” Jean-Pierre said.
She cited a speech President Joe Biden gave last week against “political violence and voter intimidation.”
“You heard him say this last week, in his speech, and many times before: You can’t love your country only when you win,” Jean-Pierre said.
“But I want to be clear: Americans should feel safe going to the polls,” she said.
“It is important for Americans to do so. The administration has taken the issue of threats to the safety of voters and election officials seriously from day one,” she said.
Late last month, Attorney General Merrick Garland was asked about reports of possible voter intimidation in Arizona and said, “The Justice Department has an obligation to guarantee a free and fair vote by everyone whose qualified to vote and will not permit voters to be intimidated.”
— ABC News’ Cheyenne Haslett
Nov 07, 3:08 PM EST
WH urges patience with results, says Biden will address midterms on Wednesday
President Joe Biden will address the midterms on Wednesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at a briefing on Monday, but she did not give specifics of how he will do so — at least in part because she said the full results of the elections will likely not be known by then.
Urging patience, Jean-Pierre said it’s important for people to understand that a days-long counting process is a sign that that the system is working as it should.
Jean-Piere also declined to offer any specifics on how the president will spend his Election Day but said he “will have a full schedule here at the White House.”
-ABC News’ Jordyn Phelps
Nov 07, 2:51 PM EST
Warnock says Walker ‘neither ready nor fit’ for Senate
One day before Election Day, Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock slammed his opponent, Herschel Walker, who he said “is neither ready nor fit to represent the people of Georgia in the United States Senate.”
“He’s pretty good at making up things. And now he wants to get the rest of us to imagine with him that he is of the timber to be a United States senator,” Warnock said.
Warnock said Walker’s decision to campaign with divisive figures like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, another Georgia Republican, should show Georgians the former football player will not be a unifier.
“Herschel Walker is demonstrating to you what kind of Senator he would be based on the company he’s keeping,” Warnock said.
Split ticket voters will be key for Warnock’s pathway to victory and he made a point to talk about reaching across the aisle.
“Let’s bring this thing over the finish line. And let us not demonize those who do not share our political point of view,” he said. “We’ve got to find a way to pull this country together, to pull the state together, because the problems are too big and the stakes are too high.”
-ABC News’ Lalee Ibssa
Nov 07, 12:23 PM EST
Tom Cotton will not run for president in 2024
Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton said Monday he will not seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.
Cotton said a potential run would take him away from his two sons. The news was first reported by Politico and confirmed to ABC News by a source.
Over the past year, Cotton has traveled to several battleground states, campaigning for candidates. He’s been to Iowa and New Hampshire, which host the party’s first two presidential nominating contests.
Cotton’s announcement was made days afterABC News reported that former President Donald Trump could announce a presidential bid as early as the week of Nov. 14.
Nov 07, 11:07 AM EST
Where Biden, Harris and Trump are spending election eve
Political heavyweights are hitting the trail for one final day of campaigning before voters head to the polls Tuesday.
President Joe Biden will join a virtual reception Monday afternoon for the Democratic National Committee before heading to Maryland with first lady Jill Biden to stump for gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore and the Democratic Party. The rally at Bowie State University will kick off at 7 p.m. ET.
Jill Biden’s also headlining a rally for Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton in Virginia at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Vice President Kamala Harris will spend the day in her home state of California. She and second gentleman Doug Emhoff are delivering remarks at a political event at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Former President Donald Trump is going to Dayton, Ohio, to rally GOP voters. Senate candidate J.D. Vance, who faces Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in tomorrow’s race, will speak ahead of Trump. Trump will take the stage at 8 p.m. ET.
Nov 07, 10:39 AM EST
NASED urges patience
The National Association of State Election Directors is urging patience ahead of the midterms, saying officials have been working nonstop to ensure the election is secure.
“State and local election officials have contingency plans in place so voters can have confidence in our elections and that the results will be tabulated accurately,” the National Association of State Election Directors said in a statement Monday. “As with any election, it is important to note that operational challenges may arise.”
The group says it’s normal for ballots to be counted in the days following the election.
“While the focus on election night is on who won and who lost, election night results are always unofficial. In the days and weeks to come, election officials will count every eligible ballot within the bounds of state laws, including provisional ballots, mail ballots, and ballots cast by military and overseas voters,” the statement said. “This critical process is normal, as it takes time to accurately tabulate millions of ballots. Some races will be close and may require a recount or a recanvass, depending on the state, but every eligible ballot will be counted as cast.”
Nov 07, 7:31 AM EST
When we will know the results
Americans may not know the results of each race on Election Day, or even the following day.
“It takes time to count all legitimate ballots in a legal and orderly manner,” President Joe Biden advised last week.
Elections in the U.S. are decentralized, and each state has different systems for regulating races. Some, such as Arizona and Colorado, allow officials to start processing mail-in ballots before Election Day. Others, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, can’t begin counting these ballots until Election Day.
FiveThirtyEight has created a sliding scale estimating how long it may take each state to count ballots based on when each state reported results in its primary elections earlier this year.
Nov 07, 6:55 AM EST
Election denialism is on the ballot
Nearly 200 candidates running on Tuesday have rejected President Joe Biden as the legitimate winner of the 2020 election. These candidates have either stated the election was stolen or took action themselves to try to usurp the results.
According to FiveThirtyEight, 60% of Americans will have an election denier on their ballot.
Not all Republicans on the ballot, however, are embracing former President Donald Trump’s lies about the race. A total of 77 have fully accepted the results while another 93 have accepted the outcome, with some reservations.
Nov 07, 6:34 AM EST
What the midterms mean for U.S. foreign policy
Domestic issues like abortion rights and the economy have taken center stage this cycle, but the elections could also have a big impact on foreign policy.
Experts told ABC News that the outcome of the races will drive the U.S. response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Republicans in Congress have hinted at curbing the steady stream of financial assistance to Ukraine. They also said the elections could also impact efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, as Republicans have generally opposed a return to the agreement all along.
“If there is a change in control of Congress, because of how partisan unfortunately a lot of Iran policy has become, there would be more pressure–given that the current administration and many Democrats in general campaigned on resurrecting a deal and engaging with Iran,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told ABC News. “There certainly will be desire for more scrutiny and oversight.”
Nov 07, 6:17 AM EST
Biden implores voters to save democracy
President Joe Biden is casting the midterms not as a referendum on his leadership, but an inflection point for the nation amid threats to democracy.
“We must with an overwhelming voice stand against political violence and voter intimidation, period,” he said at a Democratic National Committee event the week before Election Day. “Stand up and speak against it. We don’t settle our differences in America with a riot, a mob, or a bullet or a hammer. We settle them peacefully at the ballot box.”
In the speech, Biden specifically referenced the assault on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband and the swath of candidates running this cycle who’ve embraced Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election.
“American democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the United States refuses to accept the results of the 2020 election,” Biden said. “He refuses to accept the will of the people, he refuses to accept the fact that he lost.”
(WASHINGTON) — The 2022 midterm elections are shaping up to be some of the most consequential in the nation’s history, with control of Congress at stake.
All 435 seats in the House and 35 of 100 seats in the Senate are on the ballot, as well as several influential gubernatorial elections in battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democrats are defending their narrow majorities in both chambers. Republican control of either the House or Senate would be enough to curtail most of President Joe Biden’s agenda, and would likely result in investigations against his administration and even his family.
Americans are already coming out in full force this cycle. As of Nov. 5, more than 38 million voters had already cast their ballot, according to data from the University of Florida’s U.S. Elections Project.
This is how the story is developing:
Nov 07, 6:34 AM EST
What the midterms mean for U.S. foreign policy
Domestic issues like abortion rights and the economy have taken center stage this cycle, but the elections could also have a big impact on foreign policy.
Experts told ABC News that the outcome of the races will drive the U.S. response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Republicans in Congress have hinted at curbing the steady stream of financial assistance to Ukraine. They also said the elections could also impact efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, as Republicans have generally opposed a return to the agreement all along.
“If there is a change in control of Congress, because of how partisan unfortunately a lot of Iran policy has become, there would be more pressure–given that the current administration and many Democrats in general campaigned on resurrecting a deal and engaging with Iran,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told ABC News. “There certainly will be desire for more scrutiny and oversight.”
Nov 07, 6:17 AM EST
Biden implores voters to save democracy
President Joe Biden is casting the midterms not as a referendum on his leadership, but an inflection point for the nation amid threats to democracy.
“We must with an overwhelming voice stand against political violence and voter intimidation, period,” he said at a Democratic National Committee event the week before Election Day. “Stand up and speak against it. We don’t settle our differences in America with a riot, a mob, or a bullet or a hammer. We settle them peacefully at the ballot box.”
In the speech, Biden specifically referenced the assault on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband and the swath of candidates running this cycle who’ve embraced Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election.
“American democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the United States refuses to accept the results of the 2020 election,” Biden said. “He refuses to accept the will of the people, he refuses to accept the fact that he lost.”
(WASHINGTON) — President Joe Biden may not be on the ballot this election cycle but his agenda hangs in the balance as Democrats defend their majorities in Congress.
Biden, making his final pitches to voters ahead of Tuesday’s races, is casting the midterms as a critical moment for the nation.
“I know there is a lot at stake in these midterm elections, from our economy, to the safety of our streets, to our personal freedoms, to the future of healthcare and Social Security and Medicare,” Biden said this past week. “It’s all important.”
Republicans are favored to win back control of the House, according to FiveThirtyEight’s midterm forecast. As for Senate control, the forecast shows a dead heat between Democrats and Republicans.
A Republican majority in either chamber would doom Democratic priorities like climate change, voting rights and abortion access. And the remaining pieces of Biden’s signature “Build Back Better” framework would likely meet a similar fate.
“I think there were certainly pieces that got left on the table, like the child tax credit and the universal pre-K, that would be very hard to do in a divided Congress,” Jim Kessler, the executive director at the center-left think tank Third Way, told ABC News.
Kessler, though, had some optimism that bipartisan legislation could still get through a divided Congress, noting that many of Biden’s major legislative achievements have gotten some Republican support: the CHIPS Act, the gun safety package and the infrastructure law.
“Biden is uniquely qualified to pass bipartisan legislation if that’s necessary,” he said. “He’s done it before.”
But other political strategists said a Republican majority could make governing difficult for Biden.
“The biggest challenge that both the president and the Democrats in Congress are going to face is going to be the extreme, dangerous Republican caucus,” Craig Varoga, a Democratic strategist, told ABC News.
Republicans have expressed little interest in working with Democrats if they gain control on Capitol Hill.
GOP lawmakers are eying rollbacks of Biden’s corporate tax increases, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s vowed to repeal the $80 billion set aside for the Internal Revenue Service in the Inflation Reduction Act, which Republicans misleadingly claim will lead to more agents going after middle-class Americans. Also on the chopping block, McCarthy’s said, is the steady stream of financial assistance to Ukraine as the nation staves off Russia’s invasion.
And if Republicans take over the Senate, they could block Biden’s judicial nominees, who need a majority vote to be confirmed.
Still, no legislation will get past the finish line without Biden’s signature — setting up potential showdowns between him and a Republican Congress.
Several House Republicans have already pledged to launch several investigations targeting the administration if they’re the majority, including probes into Hunter Biden, the president’s son. Hunter Biden, who also faces a federal probe over his tax affairs, has been scrutinized by the GOP for his international business dealings.
Other potential investigations would likely target COVID-19 policies, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the handling of the southern border. Some GOP lawmakers have already proposed impeaching Biden as well as Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Attorney General Merrick Garland.
“I’m already being told, if they win back the House and Senate, they’re going to impeach me,” Biden told supporters last Thursday.”I don’t know what the hell they’ll impeach me for.”
What the midterms mean for 2024
Some Democratic candidates, especially those in tough races, have distanced themselves from the administration this cycle on hot-button issues like immigration or the economy. Others, such as Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, have openly suggested he shouldn’t run for another term.
Biden himself has said he intends to run, but hasn’t made any concrete announcements. At 79, and turning 80 later this month, he’s currently the oldest person to serve as commander-in-chief in the nation’s history.
One ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted in late September found that 56% of Democrats and independents that tend to vote for Democrats said they wanted “someone other than Biden” to run in the next presidential election.
If Democrats lose badly this cycle, it could potentially increase calls for Democrats to look elsewhere for a 2024 nominee.
“The stakes are obviously high but midterm elections that are bad for presidents are the norm, not the exception,” Kessler said, noting several presidents — most recently former President Bill Clinton and former President Barack Obama — were able to win reelection after Democrats were trounced in the midterms.
Since the Civil War, the party in the White House has gained seats in the House just three times in 40 tries. In the Senate, since the direct election of senators began in 1914, they’ve gained or retained their seats just seven times.
If Democrats manage to hold onto their majorities in Congress, Kessler said it would be affirmation that “running a mainstream Democratic agenda through Congress works.”
(WASHINGTON) — As Election Day neared, voters in key battleground states spoke about what’s driving them to the polls after a long campaign.
Abortion, the economy and fears for American democracy were among the main concerns for voters ABC News spoke with over two weeks — from Oct. 17-31.
Abortion: GOP positions too extreme for some?
Michigan voter 78-year-old Ruth Rehberg said she remembered when women had to go into “black, dark rooms” for an abortion and had serious health complications if it were done incorrectly.
“It is criminal not to allow women to have control over their own bodies,” said Rehberg. ” How do I tell you … how truly important this is to all women. It’s truly more important than any other vote I’ve ever done.”
Michigan voter Rick Rainville stood on the side of the road holding an anti-Proposition 3 sign. Proposition 3 would enshrine abortion rights into the Michigan State constitution.
“I think we can do so much better by women than proving them practically the only option when they are in a tough, tough situation than to kill their own flesh and blood, and we’ve got to provide better solutions,” said Rainville.
Other Michiganders like Frances Janis, a Democrat, take a more moderate stance.
“I am not in charge of another woman’s right to do what she desires with her body,” said Janis. “That is her right to make decisions for her body and not the government’s right.”
Frank Cao from Rochester, Michigan, supported current Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and said Proposition 3 will pass and the abortion access issue will push people to vote.
“Clearly, events in Kansas and elsewhere have shown it’s not particularly popular with most citizens in this country,” said Cao.
Roquesha O’Niel said that not only does she support Proposition 3, but she has been lobbying in front of businesses to encourage more votes.
“I’m encouraging my friends, my family my neighbors, I’m making phone calls I’m meeting people in grocery lines,” said O’Niel.
Abortion does not register as an issue for some Republicans who said they are focused instead on the economy.
“Abortion doesn’t even rank my top five [most important topics],” said Michigan voter Jenny Evans. “I just don’t think it’s a realistic thing that people are debating right now.”
Economy blues? Dems blame no one, GOP blames Democrats
Democrat voters seemed hesitant to blame any party for rising inflation, but GOP voters almost unanimously blamed Democrats.
“Whether you’re Democrat or Republican, you still got to deal with the economy and inflation all the same, so I wouldn’t really put it on a particular party,” said Virginia voter Jeffery Overton.
Janis said she doesn’t blame anyone for the rising costs.
“[Inflation] hasn’t deterred me from choosing who I vote for. Because inflation happens because of extenuating circumstances at times and COVID was the perfect crisis,” said Janis.
“The economy is not the Democrats fault or the Republicans fault. If it were so, then why do 13 other countries have higher inflation rates than we have?” said Democrat Carl Tate of Arizona.
Other Democrats said they blame corporate greed for driving up prices.
“Instead of saying inflation say corporate profits,” said Whitmer supporter Barbra Spiece. “It’s proven. Even Kroger is making record profits and we are all paying more at Krogers.”
“I don’t think anyone is talking about the root causes which you know like corporate greed is a lot of it,” said Cao. “Politicians on both sides are really failing.”
Independent Michigan voter Donna Bourgoin said she does not like any of the candidates running in the midterm and wishes she had more options. She said she has not decided who she will vote for for governor.
“The high prices, the gas prices, the prices of food, I know my parents are a little bit elderly and they don’t drive anywhere because they can’t afford the gas,” said Bourgoin. “The food prices are out of their reach almost now.”
Both red and blue voters fear losing
An 86-year-old Democratic voter said that she is afraid for American democracy after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
“The insurrection — it’s unbelievable that that could happen in this country. And right now, Arizona is kind of in that,” said Shirley Tounge. “It needs to be challenged and people need to know, we can lose our democracy.”
Tate said that he thinks this election is the most in danger democracy has ever been in for the United States.
“I don’t even think the Revolutionary War was as bad to our democracy as this is,” said Tate. “This is very scary. I have four daughters, six grandchildren. And I’m fearful that if we don’t make this vote happen in the correct way and their future lives, in a very perilous situation.”
Two other Arizonian seniors in their 70s said that they are relying on young people to vote.
“If we have any hope that that young people to see their future with us, so for our kids and our grandkids that’s what we’re here for,” said Martha Todd.
One of those Arizonian youth is David Ramirez, 20, who voted for Joe Biden in the last election.
“It’s kind of sad seeing that they’re delusional; into thinking that the election was stolen/rigged,” Ramirez said of some Republicans. “We’re a democracy. We’re a fair democracy … it kind of shows a character that they’re not willing to accept and accept the defeat.”
Sun City West, Arizona, voter Nancy Shubert said that she lives in a Republican area and believes some of those claiming to be Christians don’t practice what they preach.
“I’m worried about the downfall of our country, the downfall of democracy,” said Shubert. “We’re just losing everything. As women, we’re losing all our rights. Anybody who is not white Christian mainstream, is is considered persona non grata.”
Republican voter Tom Macigewski said that he is supporting Republican candidate for Michigan governor Tutor Dixon because he wants to preserve the American dream for his grandchildren.
“We have to take the state back,” said Macigewski. “We have to get rid of the programming that’s going on with our citizens. The propaganda that’s being spewed out the things of personal liberties that are being taken away from us.”
“We need to get Whitmer out of office,” said independent Holli Evans. “She’s been terrible for [Michigan] for the last four years, and we need some fresh blood in there that’s really going to change things and make our state better.”
(WASHINGTON) — As early Election Day results come in on Tuesday, it will likely appear that Republican candidates vying for any number of the federal or statewide races appear to be leading their Democratic opponents, even by large margins.
Their leads will dwindle, or crumble completely, after perceived “dumps” of votes are recorded by state election officials who count mail-in and absentee ballots in the days — or even weeks — following Election Day.
This phenomenon was popularized as the “red mirage” or the “blue shift” after the 2020 presidential election, when former President Donald Trump took a deceptive lead in several competitive states on Election Day due to delays in counting of Democrats’ mail-in ballots — their preferred method of voting due to the COVID-19 pandemic — only to eventually dissipate when the entire reserve of votes was totaled.
The illusion was a principal component of Trump and his allies’ false claims that the contest was fraudulent upon his ultimate loss to Joe Biden.
Why and where might we see a ‘red mirage’
This is likely to occur again on Tuesday, according to election experts, because of the same cocktail of factors that led to a “red mirage” in 2020: Democrats have continued to use mail-in voting more than their Republican counterparts, while some of the same decisive states will take a longer time to tally their mail-in, absentee and provisional ballots due to state laws that prohibit their count until late stages in the electoral process.
And it’s likely to occur in some of the same states where the phenomenon presented itself last cycle — in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — battleground states that also happen to feature some of the most hotly-contested races of the election season.
“All signs point to the fact that it’s going to be extreme in certain critical states again, and Pennsylvania top among them,” Lawrence Norden, senior director of the Brennan Center’s Elections & Government Program said, noting that certain candidates may claim false victories or legally attempt to stop or slow vote counts.
“I am very worried. I’m very worried that election denial forces are much more organized than they were in 2020,” Norden said.
Every state canvasses vote counts at a different pace, and one of the foremost causes of delayed completion of the unofficial count in 2020 is that some states didn’t even allow the processing of mail-in ballots until polls are closed on Election Day.
That was the case in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and despite asks from bipartisan election officials for their legislatures to change state laws to make tallying votes easier and earlier, ballots still cannot be counted until after 8 or 9 p.m. on Nov. 8. In Pennsylvania, counties will participate in “marathon counting,” meaning that they can start processing votes at 7 a.m. on Election Day, but counting still must begin at 8 p.m.
In Michigan, officials can process ballots just two days ahead of Election Day. And while canvassing laws have remained the same in some states, expanded mail-in voting access stands permanent, even after serious threats of the pandemic.
Counting of mail-in ballots
“A lot of states are expanding the rights to vote by mail, but they have not expanded as much the ability of states to do the canvassing and especially in pre-canvassing of mail-in votes,” said David Alexander Bateman, an associate professor of government at Cornell University.
They’re different from places like Florida, where election officials not only process mail-in ballots before Election Day, but release counts within 30 minutes of poll closings.
In places like Arizona, which also begins processing absentee votes before Election Day, the sheer number of people who use mail-in ballots make processing time lag. More than three million Arizonans have requested mail-in ballots this cycle, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
“In some states the numbers are so huge, like in Arizona, in terms of the number of people that are voting by mail. And though they have a head start, it’s not enough of one, so the counting is going to take a little bit longer,” Norden said.
Late mail-in ballots received in 2020 skewed more Republican than earlier ballots in Arizona, so a “blue mirage” might lead votes to toggle in 2022 — initially skewing Democratic, before adding Election Day and late arriving mail voters which could swing the vote toward the GOP.
The shift in vote totals doesn’t always favor Democrats. About 90 minutes after polls closed in Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio, FiveThirtyEight reports, Biden looked competitive in these three states — he even led in North Carolina and Ohio. But that changed as officials reported more results, and Trump wound up carrying all three states.
“I think it’s important to make clear like nobody’s winning or losing on Election Day. The votes are all in, for the most part, it’s just a question of what states chose to count and when,” Norden said.
Bateman agreed: “Just as football games do not end at the first quarter, you play out the game and it ends when the game ends. And whoever’s in the lead at the end of the game wins. It’s the same with elections. An election does not end, and it has ever ended on Election Day.”
Nearly 21 million voters have returned mail ballots so far this election, according to the University of Florida’s Michael McDonald, an expert on American elections who is tracking early voting numbers, while over 57 million have requested mail-in ballots.
For the second straight election cycle, Democrats have been casting their ballots through mail-in voting methods much more than Republicans — a trend that presented itself in 2020 when COVID presented a clear danger to voting in-person at crowded polls.
According to the U.S. Elections Project’s analysis of states that report party registration data, Democrats requested more than six million more mail-in ballots this election cycle than Republicans.
Before the last election, there was little partisan slant between who voted by mail, with Republicans — who tend to be older voters — usually preferring the method.
“A lot more people are using mail-in ballots, and those people are now, for the first time, those using them are disproportionately Democrats,” Bateman said.
After the polls closed on Election Night in 2020 and then-President Trump began claiming that mail-in voting was “rife with fraud,” as his early lead diminished, Republicans have been even less incentivized to cast mail-in ballots, the election experts said.
In Pennsylvania, where Trump preemptively claimed victory in 2020 after declaring that the counting of ballots in Philadelphia and other places across the state be stopped, about 1.4 million voters have requested mail-in ballots this year, a number lower than the 2.8 million requested in the last election, but much higher than years prior.
Norden said he’s “absolutely” expecting election denialism similar to claims circulated in 2020 to happen in states like Pennsylvania again, and perhaps more filing of legal action aimed at stopping the processing of mail-in and early votes. In 2020, Trump and his allies filed lawsuits to halt the counting of ballots in Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Nevada, home to another Senate race that could determine the balance of power in Congress, the current GOP nominee, Adam Laxalt, filed numerous lawsuits after the presidential election in 2020, attempting to stop the counting of ballots in Clark County.
Laxalt told radio host Wayne Allyn Root in the days after officially announcing his candidacy that he planned to construct a team to “come up with a full plan, do our best to try to secure this election, get as many observers as we can, and file lawsuits early, if there are lawsuits we can file to try to tighten up the election.”
“Frankly, there’s been signals from some of the election deniers already that they’re going to claim that the count should stop on election night,” Norden said.
Al Schmidt, the sole Republican on the Philadelphia County Board of Elections who had seen the canvassing of ballots in 2020 and later testified before the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack, wrote an op-ed on Friday in the Pennsylvania Capitol Star.
Schmidt warned Pennsylvania to again expect some shifting of the unofficial vote tallies, which isn’t indicative of anything nefarious.
“Most of the in-person results from polling places should be posted before midnight, but because county officials can’t begin processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, a significant portion of the vote cannot be published until later at night or the following days,” he wrote.
“And because more Democrats than Republicans use mail-in ballots (another consequence of partisan misinformation), most of the votes published later will go toward candidates of one party. This ‘blue shift’ or ‘red mirage’ has occurred election after election and is not indicative of anything untoward or suspicious,” he said.
