(DES MOINES, IOWA) — Vivek Ramaswamy is ending his 2024 presidential campaign on Monday night after a disappointing result in Iowa’s Republican caucuses despite spending months in the state trying to woo voters, a spokeswoman confirmed to ABC News
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
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(DES MOINES, IOWA) — A highly conservative electorate focused on immigration, the economy and rejection of Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory cast the first votes in the 2024 presidential contest in Monday night’s Iowa caucuses, according to preliminary entrance poll results.
Sixty-five percent of GOP voters say they didn’t think Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020. Sixty-four percent say they’d consider Donald Trump fit for office even if he were convicted of a crime. And 49% say they’re part of the “MAGA movement” that Trump started.
The Republican candidates’ late slogging through the Iowa snow may not have mattered much as 84% of caucusgoers in these preliminary results say they either made up their minds either earlier this month — 14% — or before that, 69%.
In terms of turnout among groups, 88% say they are conservative, matching the high in Iowa caucus GOP entrance polls, including 51% “very” conservative. White voters account for 97% of caucusgoers; evangelical white Christians, 51%.
Demonstrating the prevalence of conservatives and evangelicals, 58% of GOP caucusgoers say they’d favor a federal law banning all or most abortions.
Of four issues tested as most important, two dominated: immigration, at 40%, and the economy, 35%. Foreign policy and abortion were far behind, each cited by 11%.
Top-cited candidate attributes were someone who “shares my values” and “fights for people like me.”
The Iowa Republican caucuses were essentially uncontested in 2020, as Trump sought nomination for reelection. In the 2016 caucuses, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz edged out Trump and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Cruz did especially well with very conservative caucusgoers, with 44% support; with those looking for a candidate who “shares my values, 38%; and with white evangelicals, 33%.
Trump did best in 2016 with those focused on immigration, with 44% support. He did 11 points better with moderates than with conservatives, 34 vs. 23 %; and lagged among white evangelicals, with 21%.
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(DES MOINES, IOWA) — After a seemingly endless stream of rallies, bus tours, campaign stops and more, the 2024 Republican field’s convergence on Iowa will come to an end on Monday when the state holds its first-in-the-nation caucuses.
ABC News’ team of campaign reporters and producers have been following the action for months.
Here are some of their stories from the trail, impressions and memorable moments.
“Iowa nice” isn’t just a phrase in the Hawkeye state, Iowans really embody it. When talking to voters across the state, after I get done questioning them about the policies they support and the candidates they are planning the caucus for, our conversations usually end with voters offering me a home cooked meal or highlighting the sites I should visit while I’m in town.
When I was stranded at a Pizza Ranch in Marshalltown after a late-night campaign event, one local photographer even drove out of his way so I could get back to Des Moines after the press bus left me.
– Lalee Ibssa
I was at a diner in Des Moines on caucus day morning as candidate Asa Hutchinson visited and as he spoke to voters, I noticed the servers didn’t skip a beat as they slipped around the candidates and journalists, balancing heavy platters stacked with pancakes and shakes, and they were often reaching in to refill glasses of water even while Hutchinson or a reporter were talking intently to the people around the booths.
It was a moment that reminded me how even during the excitement of caucus season, normal life is still happening all around us. Normal life still seamlessly cuts through all the campaigning, no matter how focused we are on the politics.
– Oren Oppenheim
In living here, while also covering Vivek Ramaswamy, the guy who’s doing 300+ events in the state, a lot of that is learning a little finesse and multitasking, being innovative, being creative. And so it’s been fun — aside from waking up at an ungodly hour to drive to one corner of the state to the other.
All of that being said, it has been definitely a fun experience from the pizza ranches to the Midwest sunrises and sunsets, to even this blizzard we’ve just had now, to all the people I’ve met and connections I’ve made on the campaign trail. It’s definitely been an experience that I will never forget. So all of that being said, I can’t believe it’s over. I can’t believe that it’s coming to an end.
I had never been to Iowa before this and so now leaving is, you know, bittersweet … I’ve made friends here, I’ve lived here and so it’ll be it’ll be definitely a different pace moving forward. What are some things I’ll miss the most? Hopefully, I’ll be back for the Iowa State Fair for some more food to try, some more corn to judge. And the people.
– Kendall Ross
After covering politics in Washington, D.C., for nearly six years, coming to Iowa to cover the 2024 presidential election felt like coming back to my second home that is Missouri — the cornfields, the brutal snow and best of all, the Midwestern nice.
But unique to Iowa is Iowans’ passion for politics, the democratic process and their special role in nominating the next president of the United States.
It’s been a privilege to hear from them and experience this historic moment together.
-Soorin Kim
Iowa is one of the few places in the country, and perhaps the world, where people can truly get up close and personal with their future leaders. It’s here where everyone — from the farmer to the teacher to the banker to the young child enamored by politics — gets a chance to rub shoulders and bump elbows with the dozens of politicos who descend on the center of America to stump for the support of the folks who live here, in the hope that with enough charismatic speeches and an incalculable number of hands shaken and babies kissed, they might someday get to the White House.
As reporters, we get a special window into those moments, when the campaigns are still small but the aspirations remain large. Occasionally, we even get small moments of our own.
On one September night, after a long series of flights into Des Moines from Los Angeles that included me missing a leg of my trip, nearly losing my bag, and sprinting through Denver International Airport, I waited wearily at the baggage claim, desperate for my head to hit my hotel pillow. As I stood alone in the small room of luggage carousels and watched the clock inch toward midnight, I noticed a familiar face approaching me — it was the candidate I’d been assigned to cover: former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
I stood there for a moment, trying to sneak glances and verify it was actually her before I walked over to introduce myself. Both of us looked exhausted after a long day of travel, but when I walked up she still smiled and the two of us exchanged pleasantries before we hoisted our bags and trekked out into the night, knowing the long road we both had ahead of us.
Looking back, it felt like the perfect encapsulation of what happens everyday here during a campaign. It was a human moment — small and largely forgettable. But in Iowa, it’s small moments like those, if you can get enough of them with voters, that can sometimes help move the needle just enough to propel a campaign forward.
-Nicholas Kerr
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(WASHINGTON) — Monday night’s Iowa caucuses are the first chance for voters to weigh in on the Republican presidential candidates — and President Joe Biden’s campaign has already readied their argument on the results.
Advisers tell ABC News that while GOP candidates are racing to the right, Biden is focused on fighting for democracy and American freedoms.
That is likely to be a familiar refrain throughout the 2024 race. The president, whom Republicans assail as too “feeble” and ineffective on issues like inflation and immigration, is pushing back on his would-be opponents, labeling them as election deniers enthralled to Trump-style rhetoric and opposed to abortion rights.
“There is no difference between the Republican candidates in the field … all of these Republican candidates are singing the same, terrible song,” Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said at a press conference on Monday, focusing his remarks on contrasts between Biden and Donald Trump, the GOP primary front-runner.
Biden’s campaign dispatched top allies to Iowa ahead of the caucuses, including Pritzker, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith and Hollywood mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg, to counterprogram Republicans’ message even as they acknowledge many voters still aren’t fully tuned in.
A campaign official said they will have a war room set up at campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, to monitor the Iowa caucuses. Aides will dissect data like results from precincts and GOP turnout.
The president has his own issues. He’s received months of poor or mediocre polling and has an approval rating mired in the 30s, according to 538. Republicans “think anyone can beat him,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.
Pritzker seemed to acknowledge that on Monday, telling reporters, “Joe Biden has yet to have had a battle … between the Republicans and run against a single Republican. So until we see that, we won’t know really what the numbers are.”
Biden campaign officials told ABC News that their internal research shows voters are not yet paying close attention to the general election, set for Nov. 5.
A senior campaign aide said that their data shows around three-in-four undecided voters do not yet believe that Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee, despite his persistent polling lead.
Once the choice between Trump and Biden crystalizes, the president’s campaign believes Americans will be turned off by a MAGA message seen as dark and out of touch.
In the meantime, the campaign will continue to remind voters of the threats they see from a second Trump presidency because of Trump’s embrace of Jan. 6 and other rhetoric. (Trump, for his part, has tried to turn Biden’s attack back around on him.)
Though the Biden campaign has polling problems, it has been quick to tout its financial advantages: Biden is entering the election year with $117 million in cash on hand, the highest amount raised by any Democratic candidate in history at this point in the cycle.
Campaign officials said that while Republican candidates, including Trump, are expected to have to keep spending cash to battle in the primary, the Biden campaign — which faces no significant primary threat — can target funds on battleground states and save some spending for months closer to the general election.
One of those battleground states is Pennsylvania, which Biden has already visited three times since 2024 began.
Part of that is convenience: The state is the easiest of the battlegrounds for Biden to get to, a campaign official said.
This official addded that Pennsylvania has many critical voter groups for Democrats, including working-class voters, blue-collar voters, swing voters and many Black and Latino voters.
But, at this early stage in the 2024 race, the campaign official made clear that they are also focused on other swing states, with pilot programs in Arizona and Wisconsin. The official said to expect the president to travel to other battleground states in the coming months.
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(COLUMBIA, SC) — Vice President Kamala Harris weighed in on the Republican primary field in an exclusive interview with ABC News on Monday, hours before the Iowa caucuses commenced.
Harris responded to attacks from Republican Nikki Haley, who has made Harris a frequent target on the campaign trail, arguing that the vice president is who she’s really running against — because of President Joe Biden’s advanced age — and that Harris is a drag on the 2024 Biden reelection ticket.
“Let’s see what Iowa says to her!” Harris told ABC News’ Chief White House Correspondent Mary Bruce, letting out a laugh.
ABC News spent the day with Harris in Columbia, South Carolina, her second trip to the state with 19 days to go until Democrats first-in-the-nation primary. It’s also Haley’s home state and the state which gave Biden his first big win of the 2020 race.
As former President Donald Trump remains the clear front-runner in the primary polls — even as challengers like Haley, a former U.N. ambassador, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hope to gain ground on him in Iowa — Harris was asked if her concerns for the country are the same no matter who wins the Republican nomination for president.
“Let me just tell you this, no matter who the Republican nominee is, we’re winning. We’re winning,” she said.
But it’s that confidence that has some Democrats sounding the alarm, concerned that the Biden-Harris team isn’t being aggressive enough in light of Biden’s anemic approval rating and lengthy string of poor or mediocre polling.
Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., a close ally to the Biden-Harris campaign, has shared his apprehensions about building enthusiasm among Black voters ahead of November’s election, and former President Barack Obama reportedly suggested the campaign be more assertive as Trump appears on path to secure the Republican nomination.
Asked by Bruce on Monday if she views Trump as a forgone conclusion to top the GOP ticket, Harris was blunt.
“I don’t know. But look, if it is Donald Trump, we’ve beat him before and we’ll beat him again,” she said flatly. “When you … look at all of the issues that are at stake, including our standing in the world, I think that the people of America want more in terms of the outcome of this election and charting the course for the future of our country.”
Republicans, for their part, are seeking to paint Biden and Harris as incompetent at handling high inflation and immigration numbers, among other issues.
On the trail on Monday, Harris delivered the keynote address at the South Carolina NAACP’s annual “King Day at the Dome” event honoring Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
There — echoing what is a key campaign message – she warned against “extremists” whom she said are engaged in “a full-on attack on hard-fought, hard-won freedoms,” focusing, in particular, on abortion and voting rights.
Drawing comparisons between King’s civil rights fight and the fight Democrats face entering an election year, Harris did not call out any of the Republican candidates by name but delivered thinly veiled swipes at Trump, Haley and DeSantis.
“Today, extremists pass book bans! Books ban — in this year of our Lord 2024! And then they even try to erase, overlook and rewrite the ugly parts of our past. For example, the Civil War, which must I really have to say was about slavery?” she said from the South Carolina State House steps. “They insult us in an attempt to gaslight us in an attempt to divide and distract our nation with unnecessary debates.”
Harris also made an afternoon campaign stop at Big T’s BBQ to thank supporters and encourage turnout for the Feb. 23 primary.
“Elections matter. Elections matter. So I’m here to say thank you,” she told the group of mostly Black supporters, many of whom had chanted “four more years” as she walked in.
“Let’s make sure everyone does what they know how to do and have always done to show the leadership of South Carolina for our nation. It’s first in the nation and sets the tone for everything that comes,” Harris said. “And when I think about what is at stake, there is so much.”
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(WASHINGTON) — The Department of Homeland Security has threatened the state of Texas — saying the state is acting unconstitutionally in blocking Customs and Border Protection’s access to Shelby Park in Eagle Pass, Texas, and if the state continues to do so, the Justice Department will take “appropriate action”, according to a letter obtained by ABC News.
“Texas’s actions are clearly unconstitutional and are actively disrupting the federal government’s operations,” DHS General Counsel Jonathan Meyer wrote to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. “We demand that Texas cease and desist its efforts to block Border Patrol’s access in and around the Shelby Park area and remove all barriers to access in the Shelby Park area.”
The Biden administration accused the Texas National Guard of blocking Border Patrol agents from accessing a 2.5-mile stretch of the southern border in Eagle Pass, Texas, including Shelby Park.
The letter from Meyer, dated Jan. 14, says Texas has until Wednesday to “cease and desist its efforts to block Border Patrol’s access in and around the Shelby Park area and remove all barriers to access to the U.S.-Mexico border …”
If not, Meyer says they’ll refer the matter to DOJ “for appropriate action and consider all other options available to restore Border Patrol’s access to the border.”
“Texas’s failure to provide access to the border persists even in instances of imminent danger to life and safety,” Meyer said.
Three migrants died at the park last week and CBP accused Texas of not allowing agents to access the park for lifesaving care.
He said that on Jan. 12, 2024, upon learning from Grupo Beta, a group affiliated with the National Institute of Migration of Mexico, that a group of migrants was attempting to cross the river, Border Patrol contacted Texas officials and requested access to the border.
“Texas refused,” Meyer wrote.
“Later, a rescue team from Mexico was able to rescue two individuals from the group, both with signs of hypothermia,” he writes. “Three individuals drowned. Texas has demonstrated that even in the most exigent circumstances, it will not allow Border Patrol access to the border to conduct law enforcement and emergency response activities.”
The Texas Military Department, which runs the National Guard say, that claims the military department blocked border patrol agents are “wholly inaccurate.”
“Turns out @RepCuellar (& some media) were so eager to point finger at Texas for drowning of migrants they forgot to get the facts,” Texas Governor Gregg Abbott said on X. “When BP requested access to river the drownings had already occurred & found in MX. The fact is the deaths are b/c of Biden’s Open Border magnet.”
Meyer said Texas recently indicated it allowed Border Patrol access to the boat ramp in this area it has done so only with restrictions such as requiring information about each Border Patrol individual agent entering the area and reiterated that this access is limited to use of the boat ramp.
The TMD says they were in “direct communication” with CBP on Jan. 12 and that when border patrol arrived, Mexican authorities had already recovered two bodies.
“Border Patrol specifically requested access to the park to secure two additional migrants that were presumed to have traveled with the deceased, though had crossed to the boat ramp,” the statement says. “Two migrants were apprehended by TMD, with one turned over to DPS and the other transferred to EMS in response to initial hypothermic conditions. Additionally, TMD remained engaged with lights, night vision goggles, and thermals to ensure that no additional migrants were in the river or in distress.”
Meyer said despite the deaths, Texas has “continued to this day to deny full access to the area.”
“The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is committed to securing the border and ensuring the apprehension, inspection, and proper processing of noncitizens in accordance with the law, as well as to rendering emergency assistance to individuals in need,” he said. “The recent actions by the State of Texas have impeded operations of the Border Patrol.”
Texas’ actions “conflict with the authority and duties of Border Patrol under federal law and are preempted under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution.”
Texas officials also put up concertina wire and physically began obstructing access to the park, Meyer writes.
“Specifically, Texas National Guard is blocking entrances through federally owned and maintained border barriers with armed soldiers,” he writes. “While Texas has claimed that it has re-opened the use of Shelby Park to the public, it continues to prevent Border Patrol from entering, and from using the area under the adjacent port of entry where Border Patrol has certain property stored for use when migrants are apprehended. Border Patrol is being prevented from entering any portion of the 2.5 mile Shelby Park area, with the minor exception of regulated access to the boat ramp in Shelby Park, including being unable to place scope trucks as Border Patrol determines is operationally necessary.”
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(NEW YORK) — Houthi militants on Monday struck a U.S.-owned and operated container ship with an anti-ship ballistic missile, according to U.S. Central Command.
“The ship has reported no injuries or significant damage and is continuing its journey,” a statement from the command read.
The vessel was struck around 4 p.m. local time and was identified as the M/V Gibraltar Eagle. The missile was fired from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, CENTCOM said.
A spokesperson for the Houthis said in a statement that it “carried out a military operation targeting an American ship in the Gulf of Aden, with a number of appropriate naval missiles, and the hit was accurate and direct.”
After a volley of U.S. strikes intended to diminish the Houthis’ capabilities, the Yemeni militia group mounted several retaliatory attacks — targeting a U.S. destroyer on Sunday and striking an American-owned commercial ship in the Gulf of Aden on Monday — further escalating tensions in critical Middle Eastern waterways.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said that the Gibraltar Eagle, a bulk carrier sailing under the Marshall Islands flag and owned by a Connecticut-based company, was struck by an anti-ship ballistic missile launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, but that the ship “has reported no injuries or significant damage and is continuing its journey.”
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation said the ship’s captain reported that the vessel was “hit from above by a missile” on its port side.
The Gibraltar Eagle appears to be the first American-owned ship to be hit by a Houthi missile during the Iranian-backed militia’s monthslong assault against maritime traffic in the waters surrounding Yemen.
“It was inevitable that one of these Iranian-provided missiles would eventually find its way to a target,” said Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and an ABC News analyst.
“This is a blatant act of terrorism,” he continued. “They are using violence against a civilian target to advance their political aims.”
On Sunday, CENTCOM said an anti-ship cruise missile was fired from Houthi controlled areas of Yemen toward the USS Laboon, a Navy destroyer patrolling the Southern Red Sea, but that a U.S. fighter aircraft was able to shoot down the missile.
In the aftermath of sweeping airstrikes on 28 Houthi sites by the U.S. and the U.K. on Thursday, administration officials and military leaders said they expected the militants’ capabilities to launch attacks were diminished—but that they anticipated the group would still be able to mount a response.
“I know we have degraded capability,” Gen. Douglas Sims II, the director of operations of the Joint Staff, said.
The U.S. carried out a second strike in Yemen on Friday, which the Pentagon described as a “follow-on action” mean to eliminate a specific military target. But so far, these measures don’t appear to have had a deterrent effect.
Mulroy says more needs to be done.
“The U.S. should look to take out as many targets as they can identify on the Yemen coast of the Sea of Aden, as they did on the Red Sea coast,” he said. “There should be no radar, launch, or storage sites left.”
American officials initially assessed that the Houthis were not aiming at U.S. holdings—a major reason the Biden administration was hesitant launch a military response.
But the tide shifted in early January when the Houthis launched a barrage of drones and missiles in response to the U.S. sinking of three Houthi vessels while responding to a distress call from a merchant ship under attack from the rebels.
Although no U.S. vessels were hit in the onslaught, which CENTCOM described as a “complex attack,” a Houthi spokesperson claimed during a televised address that the group had “targeted an American ship that was providing support to the Zionist entity.”
Despite international condemnation, the Houthis say they will continue their attacks until Israel ends its siege on Gaza.
A spokesperson for the group said Monday that they “consider all American and British ships and warships participating in the aggression against our country as hostile targets within the target bank of our forces.”
However, many ships struck by the Houthis bear little or no connection to Israel, according to the Israeli government and international registries tracking commercial shipping vessels.
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(NEW YORK) — Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was released from the hospital Monday following a two-week stay for treatment of an infection after earlier prostate cancer surgery.
The delay in informing officials of his hospitalization caused controversy and a push for investigation from some lawmakers.
“The Secretary continues to recover well and, on the advice of doctors, will recuperate and perform his duties remotely for a period of time before returning full-time to the Pentagon,” the Department of Defense said in a statement. “He has full access to required secure communications capabilities.”
Austin underwent elective surgery to treat prostate cancer on Dec. 22. Complications from the procedure sent him back to the hospital on Jan. 1.
The Pentagon said Monday that Austin’s cancer was “treated early and effectively, and his prognosis is excellent.” He has no planned further treatment other than regular surveillance, according to the department.
Austin, in his own statement, said he will continue to “recuperate and perform my duties from home” and looked forward to returning to the Pentagon as quickly as possible.
“I’m grateful for the excellent care I received at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center and want to thank the outstanding doctors and nursing staff for their professionalism and superb support,” he said. “I also am thankful and appreciative for all the well wishes I received for a speedy recovery.”
Austin and the Pentagon have been under fire for the handling of his hospitalization, which was kept secret from the White House and other officials for three days.
President Joe Biden, commenting on the controversy for the first time last Friday, said Austin showed a lapse in judgement for not not informing him earlier that he was hospitalized.
When asked by a reporter if he still had confidence in Austin, Biden replied he did.
Austin remained hospitalized as tensions escalated in the Red Sea with Iran-backed Houthi militants continuing their attacks on ships in the crucial waterway.
The U.S. on Jan. 11 led a coalition of partners, including the United Kingdom, in launching retaliatory strikes against the Houthis after the group failed to heed international warnings.
The White House and Pentagon detailed Austin’s involvement in the military action, saying he gave the order to Central Command to initiate those strikes and monitored them in real time.
The Houthis vowed to retaliate, and on Sunday fired a missile toward an American warship that was shot down by a U.S. fighter aircraft, U.S. military officials said.
On Monday, the militants struck a U.S.-owned and operated commercial container ship, according to U.S. Central Command. The ship didn’t report any injuries or significant damage.
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(NEW YORK) — The 2024 primary season is finally beginning, with Iowa kicking it off with its first-in-the-nation Republican caucuses on Monday.
Former President Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the state — and the ultimate GOP nomination — according to polling tracked by 538, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are battling for second place and projecting confidence they can prove their viability with voters.
History proves that winning the caucuses is far from a guarantee of an eventual presidential nomination, but a strong margin of victory, or even beating expectations, could serve as a serious boost for a candidate heading into primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Here are five things to watch for heading into voting on Monday night.
If Trump wins — by how much?
The ultimate victor in Iowa’s caucuses looks like it will be Trump, if the months and months of polling is accurate. What remains less clear is how much he might win by.
538’s polling average in Iowa currently shows Trump with about 51% support, a roughly 35-point edge over Haley, his nearest competitor, who sits at about 17%. DeSantis has narrowly fallen behind Haley, with about 16%.
Strategists and the campaigns themselves are widely expecting that to be too much ground to make up for either Haley or DeSantis, with allies casting a strong second place as a victory.
“They’re viewing me as an underdog. I think that’s better,” DeSantis said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”
Haley echoed that in a campaign trail appearance later Sunday: “We’re gonna go all the way until the last hour because we know what situation we’re in.”
Trump’s team has said anything beyond a 12-point win — the largest margin of victory ever seen in Iowa — would count as a blowout. 538’s average shows his margin could stretch to three times that amount, but the former president’s campaign is wary of setting sky-high expectations for fear that his supporters would no longer be motivated to turn out and the speculation of weakness that could come if those expectations aren’t met.
Enthusiasm does appear to be on Trump’s side, though. The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll found that among likely caucusgoers who said they plan on backing Trump, 82% said their mind was completely made up and 49% said they were “extremely enthusiastic.”
Among Haley voters, 63% said their mind was made up and just 9% were “extremely enthusiastic.”
Should Trump top 50% and wipe out Haley and DeSantis by dozens of points, he would enter New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 primary with a head full of steam and help solidify the narrative that 2024’s open GOP primary is anything but. Yet even a 12-point win would mark a massive departure from where polling has estimated the race to be, potentially putting a chink in Trump’s armor and putting wind in the sails of his rivals.
Who gets second place?
There are likely to be major consequences for both Haley and DeSantis, depending on where they end up in the Iowa results.
Haley has placed a larger emphasis on New Hampshire, where independent and undeclared voters can participate, giving her a broader Trump-skeptical base from which to draw. But her leapfrogging of DeSantis in the Iowa polling showed that a second-place finish is a real possibility.
Should she finish behind Trump — and particularly if she’s able to get even remotely close to him in the final tally — Haley would likely establish herself as the top Trump alternative in the eyes of many operatives, journalists and donors as well as anti-Trump voters.
Haley’s campaign itself hasn’t set any expectations for how she’ll do in Iowa, but New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who has endorsed her, has predicted a strong second-place finish for her in the caucuses.
A third-place finish for her, meanwhile, could be a disappointment for a campaign that has been gaining in public perception and polling since the fall.
DeSantis, for his part, has staked virtually his entire campaign on Iowa, essentially ditching New Hampshire and falling to third place in polls there (after former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie left the race).
Finishing in second place — again, especially if the margin with Trump is narrow — would likely reinvigorate a campaign that has been beset by reports of infighting and falling poll numbers, even if New Hampshire is less favorable.
A third-place showing in Iowa, on the other hand, could only fuel chatter about DeSantis’ narrowing path to success.
How much does retail politicking matter?
Crisscrossing Iowa is a tried-and-true tradition for candidates looking to win over caucusgoers. But, like much else in the Trump-era, that old rule may be out the window.
Trump has made just 35 in-person stops across 21 days, according to an ABC News count on Sunday morning. DeSantis, meanwhile, has traveled to all of Iowa’s 99 counties, holding 169 events across 61 days. And Ramaswamy has been to every county twice, holding 326 events over 89 days.
Yet it is Trump who is far ahead, while DeSantis and Ramaswamy are running in third and fourth places, respectively.
“It feels like there’s two different campaigns going on. There’s Trump and his legal battles that he puts front and center as his grievance campaign — ‘they’re out to get me, fight the deep state’ — and then there’s an actual campaign going on between DeSantis and Haley. But it’s only for second place,” said David Kochel, a veteran Iowa GOP strategist.
How much does a popular governor’s endorsement help?
DeSantis seemingly scored a coup in November when he got the endorsement of wildly popular Gov. Kim Reynolds. Now, with polls showing him in third place, it appears Reynolds’ vocal support hasn’t swayed many voters.
Haley scored her own endorsement of from popular governor, New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu, in December, which she’s hoping to translate into a strong finish there, likely on the backs of those who have voted for Sununu in the past.
But while Iowa’s caucuses and New Hampshire’s primary are not apples to apples, the impact — or lack thereof — of Reynolds’ endorsement could be a warning sign for Haley, who still trails Trump in polling even as she has closed the gap there.
How does weather impact turnout?
Iowa is going to be under a wind chill warning until Tuesday, and temperatures may not even break above 0 degrees — certainly not ideal conditions for a crucial caucus day in which they would typically be pushing to rally supporters.
The frigid weather has sparked speculation over whether turnout will take a hit — and who that would impact most.
On the one hand, some Republican strategists speculated that Trump’s supporters are so confident in his margin that they might not brave the weather, considering his victory all but guaranteed. But others wondered whether supporters of Trump’s rivals would make the same calculation and that turning out would not blunt his victory, making venturing out in a virtual tundra seemingly not worth it.
There does remain a third option — that Iowa voters value their caucuses enough that they’ll turn out regardless.
“I’m going to go,” said Karen Kuster, who is still undecided in the caucus. “I’ve thought about not going, but I’m gonna go.”
ABC News’ Nicholas Kerr and Kendall Ross contributed to this report.
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(NEW YORK) — After months of hearing from presidential candidates, Iowans will face frigid temperatures Monday evening as they register their preferences in the first-in-the-nation Republican 2024 caucuses.
In a state of a little more than 3 million people, the caucuses — which can take hours to participate in — usually attract just 150,000 to 250,000 Iowans. That small group of Americans has the very first say about who will go on to vie for the presidency.
Ahead of caucus night, ABC News sat down with supporters of former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to hear why they landed on their chosen candidate. Tom Donnelly, who supports Trump, said he would gladly support Haley or DeSantis. Nicole Cleveland and Liz Lee, who support DeSantis and Haley respectively, however said they would have to do a lot of soul searching to support Trump and that it would be unlikely.
The group of caucus-goers differed on issues running the gamut from abortion, to compromising with Democrats, to the legitimacy of the 2020 election. But there was one thing they all agreed on: Iowa is deserving of its first-in-the-nation status and Americans should take their preferences seriously.
Polls ahead of the caucuses suggest Trump has a very clear advantage when it comes to those preferences, but if there are going to be any wildcards this year, a succession of brutal winter storms might just be it. Due to the bad weather, Trump had to cancel three out of his four in-person commit to caucus rallies and will instead hold a series of telerallies.
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