(WASHINGTON) — President Joe Biden received a key 2024 endorsement on Wednesday from the United Auto Workers, with the union’s president using the occasion to savage Biden’s likely general election opponent, Donald Trump.
Shawn Fain announced UAW’s support for Biden’s reelection bid at their biannual conference in Washington, D.C.
“I know there’s some people that want to ignore this election,” Fain said. “They don’t want to have anything to do with politics. Other people want to argue endlessly about the latest headline or scandal or stupid quote. Elections aren’t about just taking your best friend for the job or the candidate who makes you feel good. Elections are about power.”
“The question is, who do we want in that office to give us the best shot of winning?” Fain said. “Who gives us the best shot of organizing? Who gives us the best shot of negotiating strong contracts? Who gives us the best shot of uniting the working class and winning our fair share once again?”
Fain cast the 2024 race as a choice between Biden and Trump and didn’t mince words in his criticism of the former president. He specifically took issue with Trump’s handling of the union’s 2019 strike, arguing that Trump didn’t do a “damn thing” while UAW members confronted General Motors at plants across the U.S.
“Donald Trump is a scab,” Fain said. “Donald Trump is a billionaire, and that’s who he represents. If Donald Trump ever worked in auto plant, he wouldn’t be a UAW member — he’d be a company man trying to squeeze the American worker.”
Last year, Biden joined UAW members striking against General Motors, Ford and Stellantis on the picket line in a historic show of support for workers amid their contract negotiations with the auto giants for better wages and conditions.
“If our endorsements must be earned, Joe Biden has earned it,” Fain said on Wednesday.
Biden also won the group’s endorsement in 2020, and it backed Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016.
But Trump was successful in battlegrounds like Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania in that election cycle in part because of his ability to attract more union support than past GOP candidates: The UAW said it believed one in four of its members likely voted for Trump based on surveys at the time.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
(COLUMBIA, S.C.) — New Hampshire has spoken — and with South Carolina’s primary approaching next month, voters are sharing their thoughts about the race between the state’s former governor Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump — with one voter saying Haley would only get his vote if she is the last Republican standing.
Trump is polling nearly 40 points ahead of Haley, yet the former U.N. ambassador is committing to stay in the race with her sights set on what she calls her “sweet state of South Carolina.”
So why does Haley think she can take on the former president in South Carolina’s GOP primary, set for Feb. 24?
Haley’s history, Trump’s popularity
South Carolina is Haley’s home turf — she served as a fairly popular governor for two terms from 2011 to 2017 — however, polls show that Trump is dominating in the ruby-red state. The former president is polling at 62% compared to Haley’s 25%, according to 538’s polling averages.
Also, Trump benefits from endorsements from the majority of the state’s GOP leaders including Sens. Linsey Graham and Tim Scott, Rep. Nancy Mace and Gov. Henry McMaster. Haley has a history with several of these endorsers who backed Trump: McMaster is her former lieutenant governor; Haley appointed Scott to senator; and she campaigned for Mace in the 2022 midterm elections.
Trump has shown he appeals to South Carolina voters, too. In 2020, he won the state by 55% and in 2016 by 54%, according to the state’s election board.
Labeling herself a “fighter” and “scrappy,” Haley has vowed to stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday. With a month left to go until the South Carolina primary, Haley faces a steep uphill climb to the coveted nomination — but she said the fight is not over.
“New Hampshire is first in the nation … it is not last in the nation … this race is far from over,” Haley said in her concession speech in New Hampshire.
She has attacked Trump, and pledges to show why South Carolinians should vote for her.
“The people of South Carolina don’t want a coronation, they want an election. And we are gonna give them one,” Haley said Tuesday night.
Republican leadership doesn’t seem to have confidence in Haley’s ability to beat Trump.
“I’m looking at the math and the path going forward, and I don’t see it for Nikki Haley,” Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said on Fox News Wednesday. “I think she’s run a great campaign, but I do think there’s a message that is coming out from the voters that is very clear– we need to unite around our eventual nominee, which is going to be Donald Trump.”
What are South Carolina voters saying?
South Carolina is known for picking presidents. Since 1980, it has reliably picked the GOP’s nominee with one exception: in 2012 with Newt Gringrich (Mitt Romney went on to become the GOP nominee that year).
Trump, with his large swath of South Carolina endorsements, is expected to win the state, and he said he plans to ramp up attacks on Haley.
After winning New Hampshire’s primary he told audience members, “I don’t get too angry, I get even.”
Haley, who has said she is the only thing standing in the way of a Biden-Trump rematch, announced a $4 million ad blitz in her home state and is using campaign supporters to help in grassroots efforts to target undecided voters in the state. Americans For Prosperity Action, which endorsed Haley in November, raised more than $70 million, according to its latest public filing. The group told ABC News they’ve knocked on 315,000 in South Carolina and will continue knocking until primary day.
Still — it may not help the state’s former governor. Chad Connelly, who served as South Carolina’s GOP chairman while Haley was governor, told ABC News that although people like Haley, they love Trump.
“People really believe Trump is the guy that can halt and repair the problems they see across the country,” Connelly said. “I really don’t think it’s a dislike for Nikki as much as a deep love and appreciation for what President Trump did.”
Ann Byess from Lexington, South Carolina, said she sees Haley’s track record as governor as a sign of what she can accomplish as president. When Haley was governor, she encouraged South Carolina businesses to expand and saw employment swell by 400,000 people.
“I’m heavily considering Nikki Haley,” said Byess. “I just think she’s the best candidate right now. The economy hits really close to home.”
But Frank Spaniel from Columbia, South Carolina, said he still considers her a part of the “Republican establishment.”
“If she’s the last Republican standing, she’ll get my vote,” Spaniel said. “The only thing that I like that’s positive is her stance — the way she approached the abortion topic. But there’s a lot of other policies — I consider her part of the Republican establishment that I’m not happy with.”
ABC News spoke with Byess and Spaniel in November — before other major GOP candidates — such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — dropped out of the race.
Eric Voyer, a voter from Columbia, South Carolina, said Trump’s legal woes wouldn’t deter him from voting for the former president.
“If Trump gets convicted, every American — I don’t care if you are liberal, conservative, white, black, red, green or purple — we should be deeply concerned with the way they are using the justice system to attack their political enemies,” Voyer said in December.
Connelly said he believes it’s only a matter of time before Haley bows out, but Trump still has a long road to Election Day and he will need all the help he can get.
“I think we’re just in a very different place where I believe you’ll see all conservatives and Republicans come together and try to win this thing,” he said.
How does South Carolina’s primary work?
South Carolina has an open primary, which means registered voters can cast a ballot in either the Democratic or Republican primary. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina does not require voters to register by party, however residents are allowed to vote in only one of the primaries. The last day to register is Jan. 25.
The primary is traditionally held on a Saturday and, unlike New Hampshire, allows for early voting beginning mid February. Over the summer, South Carolina’s Republican Party moved its primary to so that it’s 18 days after Nevada’s caucus allowing candidates nearly three weeks to saturate the state.
Debbie Epling, who lives in South Carolina’s Aiken County, told ABC News in December that she’ll be “disappointed” if the candidates don’t come to her county.
“That says every one of the candidates is taking our vote for granted,” she said.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to a New Hampshire primary election night watch party in Nashua, New Hampshire, U.S., on Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
(WASHINGTON) — Former President Donald Trump is projected to score a double-digit victory in New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday, marking a second and crucial step toward securing the 2024 Republican nomination.
With more than 73% of the estimated vote in as of late Tuesday, Trump was in first with 54% and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley was in second with 44%.
Though Haley played up that second-place finish in a speech after polls closed — drawing Trump’s scorn — she had staked much of her campaign on winning over New Hampshire voters given the state’s more anti-Trump electorate and its rules allowing independents to participate in the primary.
Polls show she is much further behind Trump than 10 points in various other parts of the country, including South Carolina, where they will next face off next month.
On the Democratic side, a write-in campaign for President Joe Biden handily won his race, which was unsanctioned by the Democratic National Convention after New Hampshire refused to move the race’s date to jive with the DNC’s calendar of having South Carolina hold the nation’s first primary.
Here are three takeaways from Tuesday night’s results:
Trump margin expected to stay in double digits
Experts have long said that New Hampshire had the makings of the kind of state that could blunt Trump’s momentum and help boost one of his primary rivals.
Among other things, the state boasts an electorate more moderate than that of Iowa, where Trump romped in the caucuses last week. And by Tuesday, only one major opponent remained, Haley, which could have allowed anti-Trump voters to coalesce around her.
In the end, though, Trump again emerged victorious, dashing Haley’s hopes of a narrow win or a truly close second-place finish and cementing even further his popularity in the GOP.
The next two contests are set to be held on significantly more friendly terrain for Trump.
He’ll enter Nevada’s caucuses in early February with a huge lead with voters there, per polling, and Haley isn’t even competing in them. South Carolina will hold its primary on Feb. 24 — and even though it’s Haley’s home state, Trump currently leads by about 36 points in 538’s polling average.
Trump’s allies flexed after the former president’s strong showing, pointing to the results as evidence that the primary was never competitive in the first place.
“After President Trump’s resounding victory in New Hampshire tonight people will say this primary is over. The truth is, tonight’s result proves it never existed at all. President Trump has been our nominee all along. It’s now time for the entire Republican Party to unite behind our nominee to defeat Joe Biden in November,” Kari Lake, the Arizona GOP Senate candidate rumored to also be a possible vice-presidential pick for Trump, said in a statement.
“It’s time for unity, it’s time to take the fight to the Democrats, and for Nikki Haley: it’s time to drop out,” added Taylor Budowich, who heads the main pro-Trump super PAC.
Biden’s campaign didn’t disagree with that assessment of the race.
“It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher,” he said in a statement.
Haley stays in, for now
Haley on Tuesday night played down any possibility she’d be exiting the race.
Her team had steadily lowered expectations in New Hampshire from projecting a victory to saying they would settle for a respectable second place and hope for a better result in South Carolina next month.
In a speech to supporters, Haley indicated she plans on staying in the race through South Carolina’s primary and Super Tuesday on March 5, where the lion’s share of delegates is up for grabs.
“In the next two months, millions of voters in over 20 states will have their say. We should honor them and allow them to vote. And guess what? In the next two months, Joe Biden isn’t going to get any younger or any better. We’ll have all the time we need to defeat Joe Biden. When we get to South Carolina, Donald Trump’s going to have a harder time … attacking me,” she said.
“South Carolina voters don’t want a coronation. They want an election. And we’re going to give them one,” she said. “Because we are just getting started.”
Haley also took pointed swipes at Trump, indicating an escalation of their back-and-forth that Haley had appeared reticent to engage in early in the campaign.
“[Democrats] know Donald Trump is the only Republican in the country who Joe Biden can beat,” Haley said. “You can’t fix the mess if you can’t win the election. A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency.”
She also noted Trump’s reluctance to debate her and a recent gaffe when he confused her with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — while also reiterating her call for mental competency tests for elderly politicians.
Trump is 77, and Biden is 81.
“Most Americans do not want a rematch between Biden and Trump. The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election. And I think it should be the Republicans that win this election. So, our fight is not over because we have a country to save,” she said.
The write-in campaign set up by Biden allies is projected to have easily dispatched Democratic challengers Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson.
While the Democratic primary will not award any delegates after being disavowed by the DNC, party leaders were concerned that a victory or near-second by either of the two challengers would mark a major embarrassment for the president, just as Democrats try to quell hand-wringing over Biden’s age, handling of the economy and poor standing in early polls of the 2024 race.
In the end, though, Biden was at 67% with write-ins while Phillips hovered around 20% and Williamson failed to break 5% as of late Tuesday, with more than 41% of the vote counted. (Williamson’s campaign manager, Carlos Cardona, soon quit but told ABC News that there was no bad blood and the campaign planned to keep going.)
Still, Phillips reiterated in a speech on Tuesday that he has concerns about a Biden-Trump rematch and said he will stay in the race, despite failing to beat a man who didn’t compete in New Hampshire or even appear on the ballot.
“Joe Biden is a good man. He’s a fine man. Yes, he is everybody, he’s our president, but I gotta tell you, everyone, he cannot win. The polls are saying he cannot win, his approval numbers are saying you can’t win, and the fact that an unknown congressman from Minnesota two weeks before the election said I’m going to come out here and run for president just got 21%, that says something,” Phillips said.
“We’re going to go to South Carolina, and then we are going to go to Michigan, and then we are going to go to all the Super Tuesday states,” he added.
(CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE) — For weeks, Nikki Haley and her allies have said she was ready to take on Donald Trump in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary — and prove she has the momentum with Republicans to keep fighting him for the party’s presidential nomination.
With Haley’s endorsement from the state’s popular governor, Chris Sununu, and its higher proportion of college-educated and independent voters, the state was seen as the most favorable early battleground for her against the former president after she finished a distant third in Iowa.
New Hampshire polls found Haley had some reason for optimism, with 538’s polling average showing her gaining notable ground with voters since December.
Still, Trump’s own support has also increased and they headed into primary day with Haley still trailing by double digits.
The Haley team, including surrogates like Sununu, also softened their own expectations for how she would perform, from predicting a “landslide” to vowing a “strong second.”
“We’re fighting for every inch look. No one said that this was going to be easy,” Haley campaign spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas told ABC News Live anchor Linsey Davis on Tuesday night. “Donald Trump is Donald Trump.”
‘A landslide here in New Hampshire’
Haley won the endorsement of anti-Trump New Hampshire Gov. Sununu in December. He chose her over other options like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, both of whom have since ended their campaigns.
Sununu quickly became a key surrogate for Haley, stumping for her in numerous rallies and TV interviews.
Fresh off the endorsement — six weeks ahead of the primary — Sununu in a joint television appearance with Haley boasted that the former U.N. ambassador’s chances of victory were high.
“The fact is, we’re gonna have record turnout here,” Sununu said. “And if any — everybody that can vote comes out and votes, there’s no doubt Nikki Haley’s gonna win this thing in a landslide here in New Hampshire. And that’s the fundamental change.”
‘Iowa starts it’
Whereas opponents like DeSantis devoted more resources to a strong showing in Iowa’s caucuses, which kicked off the nominating race last week, Haley promised supporters at one Milford, New Hampshire, event that their primary would be a chance to “get this right.”
“You know, Iowa starts it. You know that you correct it, ” Haley said on Jan. 3.
Introducing Haley at the event, Sununu admitted he expected Trump to win Iowa — which Trump ultimately did, with 51% of the vote — but predicted Haley would have a good showing in the state.
“I think she’s going to shock everyone in Iowa with a strong second.” Sununu said.
Haley overtook DeSantis for second place in a late poll but ended up falling behind in the actual caucuses, ending up in third with 19%.
‘Strong … and then even stronger’
Last week, Sununu struck a different tone about Haley’s goals in his state: “We always wanted to have a strong second,” he told ABC News’ Byron Pitts, adding that it was “the only expectation we ever laid out.”
On the day of the New Hampshire primary, Haley had South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary on her mind. In an interview with ABC News’ Rachel Scott, Haley was asked about recent polls showing Trump widening his lead above Haley in New Hampshire.
“We’re going home to South Carolina. The goal is we wanted to be strong in Iowa, stronger in New Hampshire and then even stronger that in South Carolina,” Haley said.
But there, as in other parts of the country, Trump has an enormous polling lead.
A Haley campaign memo released Tuesday argued that the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5 would offer “significant fertile ground for Nikki.”
“We are committed to see this through. I think what a lot of people don’t realize is first a month in politics is a lifetime,” Perez-Cubas, the campaign spokeswoman, said on ABC News Live on Tuesday. “A lot can happen over the next several weeks.”
(CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE) — New Hampshire voters have been heading to the polls on Tuesday to vote in a presidential primary that could heavily influence the race for the Republican nomination.
It’s largely between former President Donald Trump, who is the favorite in the polls to win both New Hampshire and the overall primary, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the last major candidate remaining against him.
Some still didn’t know who they’re backing in the days before the race.
“I’ve changed my mind about a dozen times so far,” said Mark LaCroix.
Others, however, touted their candidate as the one who can remedy the country’s ailments, with several voters expressing dour perceptions of the economy and the cost of living — a recurring theme going back at least to the 2022 midterms.
“When you speak to the average working-class voter, they have increasing debt, everything has become more expensive for them, and that’s what they’re feeling,” said Bobby O’Donnell.
“I’m voting for Nikki Haley because she’s fresh, she’s young, she’s an accountant, and I like that. She’s gonna balance the budget,” Maureen Ennis told ABC News.
Most voters, though, expressed confidence that Trump would run away with the state.
“I think President Trump is going to win. I think after New Hampshire, I think if he wins this state, Nikki Haley has to win it in order for her to continue,” said Cooper Walsh.
“I’m supporting President Trump because he has a record of getting things done. I think Americans are tired of what Joe Biden’s done to this country. I think they want the border closed. … They want to see the economy booming again. And me, personally, I want a president who’s going to support women in women’s sports,” Maya Harvey said, adding that “absolutely” Trump will be the Republican nominee.
Some voters were motivated to vote because they feared that prediction would end up being true.
“I’m an independent going on the Republican ticket so I can vote for Nikki Haley,” said Karol Carroll. “Because Donald Trump, I do not want him in office.” (Under New Hampshire law, independent voters can cast ballots for either the Democratic and Republican nominees.)
There’s seemingly been less action on the Democratic side. But President Joe Biden’s allies are waging a write-in campaign for him in the state’s unsanctioned primary, which he declined to campaign in because of a larger battle over scheduling between the state and national Democrats.
But many Democrats are still hoping Biden can win handily via the write-in campaign to fend off an embarrassing defeat to either Rep. Dean Phillips or author Marianne Williamson, who are challenging him for the nomination.
“[People have been confused] and resentful. A lot of people are resentful about it. But it’s nothing that Biden could control really … or New Hampshire. These are the rules, and we have to follow them whether we like them or not. New Hampshire has to be first, and the DNC says South Carolina has to be first. So, we’ve got an impasse,” said Donna Vanderbeck, a supporter of the write-in campaign.
Others, though, felt less positively about Biden.
Phillips is looking to run to Biden’s left and lean into the 26-year age difference between the two of them (Phillips is 55 and Biden is 81) while arguing Biden cannot take on Trump in a rematch in November.
And progressives are frustrated over Biden’s handling of Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas after Hamas’ October terror attack, with some pushing voters to write-in “cease-fire” instead of the president’s name.
“He was one of the candidates I, one, saw most, which influences a lot in who you vote for,” Daniel Rosario said of why he voted for Phillips. “But also, a lot of his views I align with, along with the fact that he is younger — which is something that we really haven’t had in a while.”
Rosario clarified later that he hasn’t gone to any of Phillips’s events in New Hampshire, but had seen ads for Phillips and some YouTube videos about candidates.
Why not vote for Williamson? “She just didn’t get my attention as much,” Rosario said, adding that while she has “a lot of views that I agree with… something about her didn’t call me to vote for her.” As for President Joe Biden, Rosario said he feels Biden has been in office or running for too long.
“I don’t know that any of the candidates have actually been strong enough with respect to what’s happening in Gaza,” George Shaker said. “Certainly, President Biden hasn’t been, and I think we need a voice with more of a humanitarian concern; there have already been over 25,000 people killed in Gaza; civilians, children, women, men.”
(CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE) — Strong turnout by unaffiliated voters and a comparative abundance of moderates stand out in preliminary exit poll results from the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday.
Under New Hampshire law, the primary is open, allowing independents to vote for either the Democratic or Republican nominee.
Voters who are registered as “undeclared,” rather than Republican, account for 47% of the turnout in the preliminary exit poll results — the record to date was 45% in 2012.
Moderates account for 31% of voters, compared with 9% in last week’s Iowa caucuses. Just 24% are very conservative vs. 52% in Iowa. And white evangelicals are 19%, compared with 55% in Iowa.
From a list of four issues, the economy (34%) and immigration (31%) prevailed in importance, compared with foreign policy, cited by 17%, and abortion, 11%.
With regards to abortion, 27% of voters say they favor a federal ban, a sharp difference from 61% who favored it in Iowa, according to preliminary exit poll results.
Economic sentiment is sour, with 69% saying the economy is in not-so-good or poor shape. Relatedly, 77% are dissatisfied or even angry with the way things are going in the country today. And a majority of voters, 56%, say they expect life to be worse for the next generation of Americans — up dramatically from 20% in 2020 and 33% in 2016.
Using self-reported partisanship, 45% of New Hampshire voters in these preliminary exit poll results describe themselves as independents, near the 2012 record of 47%.
Notably, 8% identify themselves as Democrats — double the previous high in a GOP primary in the state.
That leaves just 47% of Republican primary voters identifying as Republicans in these preliminary exit poll results — which, if it holds, would set a new low. Self-identified Republicans have slipped to fewer than half of GOP primary voters in the state just once before: 49% in 2012.
A quarter of New Hampshire voters in these preliminary results say they finally made up their mind in the past week or less and 16 percent are first-time voters in a GOP primary.
A relatively modest majority of New Hampshire primary voters, 56%, say in these preliminary results that they’d be satisfied with former President Donald Trump as the party’s nominee but 55% say they’d be satisfied with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Trump’s main remaining opponent.
About 32% of New Hampshire voters identify themselves as part of the MAGA movement vs. 46% in Iowa.
Forty-nine percent of voters say they are 2020 election deniers compared with 66% in Iowa. And 47% say that if Trump were convicted of a crime, they’d consider him unfit to serve as president — compared to the 31% of voters in Iowa who said the same. He denies all wrongdoing.
Another question marks Haley’s position as chiefly the anti-Trump choice: 77% of Trump voters in these preliminary results say they strongly favor their candidate as opposed to liking him with reservations or mainly disliking others.
By contrast, just 33% of Haley voters strongly favor her and 39% mainly dislike her opponent
Exit poll results may change as the night progresses.
(NEW YORK) — Former Republican Congressman George Santos returns to federal court on Long Island Tuesday for a status conference in his fraud and money laundering case.
Ahead of the appearance, Santos added two lawyers to his legal team and prosecutors asked the judge to give the parties time “to pursue plea negotiations.”
Santos has pleaded not guilty to 23 felony charges, including two counts of wire fraud, two counts of making materially false statements to the Federal Election Commission, two counts of falsifying records submitted to obstruct the FEC, two counts of aggravated identity theft and one count of access device fraud, according to the United States Attorney’s Office in the Eastern District of New York.
Prosecutors said in a prior court filing in December they were working with Santos “with the goal of resolving this matter without the need for a trial.”
The prosecution also said Monday they were planning to turn over another 6,000 pages of documents as part of discovery. They also asked the judge to set a schedule for pretrial motions.
Santos is currently scheduled to stand trial in September. He was denied a motion to move the trial up to June in a December court appearance.
Prosecutors said there was no need for another status conference until just before the start of trial so there is time “for the parties to pursue plea negotiations.”
Two of Santos’ associates, his former campaign finance chief Nancy Marks and fundraiser Sam Miele, have already pleaded guilty to charges.
Santos had represented New York’s 3rd Congressional District since January 2020 before being expelled on Dec. 1 in a bipartisan vote, 311-114, with 112 Republicans voting with Democrats, far eclipsing the two-thirds majority threshold needed to remove him from office.
(WASHINGTON) — Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign faces a major test of electability in New Hampshire’s Republican primary on Tuesday, when, polls show, she has her best chance to put a dent in former President Donald Trump’s chances of clinching a third straight presidential nomination.
Haley is leaning on turnout from independents who can vote in the primary to boost her to a win or a close second to Trump, which, she has said, would fuel her momentum until next month’s primary in her home state of South Carolina. But a more expansive victory by Trump could pump the brakes on Haley’s argument that she is a viable alternative.
While Haley has closed the gap with Trump in New Hampshire, somewhat, 538’s polling average shows Trump up by more than 30 points in South Carolina.
On the other side, Joe Biden’s allies are working to gin up support for a write-in campaign for the president, who is not appearing on the ballot in the state’s unsanctioned Democratic primary. Despite the odd circumstances of the race, a win against Biden for either Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips or author Marianne Williamson would mark an embarrassment for the incumbent — a scenario many leading Democrats in New Hampshire are hoping the write-in effort will avoid.
Here are five things to watch in Tuesday’s races:
Can Haley really pull off an upset?
Haley’s campaign and allies have been bullish that she’s set for a win or narrow second-place showing. But a bad loss, following a weak showing in Iowa’s caucuses last week, could spell the beginning of the end for the South Carolinian.
Challenger Ron DeSantis, who did slightly better than Haley in Iowa, ended his own campaign on Sunday after he said he didn’t see a chance of success in the coming races.
With 538’s polling average still showing Haley more than 14 points behind Trump as of Tuesday, her defeat appears likely, according to some Republican strategists.
“Judging by what I’m seeing, I think it’s going to be extremely difficult for Nikki Haley to hold Donald Trump to under 50%. And I think there’s a chance that Trump pushes 60% tomorrow,” New Hampshire’s Mike Dennehy told ABC News Monday.
Haley has sounded confident on the trail, especially after DeSantis left the race.
“It’s now one fella and one lady left,” she said Sunday after the Florida governor made his announcement. “May the best woman win.”
But the narrowing of the field, now essentially down to Haley and Trump, could actually be helping him more than her: 538’s polling average in New Hampshire shows him recently gaining more in support than she has, perhaps from voters who had backed former challengers like DeSantis or businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.
Trump told Newsmax on Sunday, “Maybe she’ll drop out on Tuesday. Let’s see what happens.”
How many people — and who — turn out?
For Haley to perform the way she needs to, she’ll likely need strong turnout and support from independent voters, who under New Hampshire law can vote in the GOP primary.
With polls showing Trump romping among registered Republicans, undeclared voters are seen as marking Haley’s best path to earning enough votes to remain competitive beyond New Hampshire.
However, the experts who spoke with ABC News were unsure that enough independents will come out to give Haley the support she needs given Trump’s expansive margins with Republicans.
“It could happen,” said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire’s survey center, “but she would need to have that be 55% undeclared, 45% registered Republicans [in the turnout]. The highest it’s ever been has been 40% undeclared in 2012. And she’d have to get 65% of the undeclareds.”
It was originally thought that Haley could be aided by Biden choosing to not compete in the unsanctioned Democratic primary — but now, a concerted write-in effort could persuade independents eager to back or buck the president to vote in that primary instead.
What’s next?
Tuesday night’s results could not only dictate the next steps for Haley’s campaign but also for the entire 2024 election cycle.
With Haley so far behind in South Carolina polling already, a major loss could undercut her argument about what’s next.
“The goal is we wanted to be strong … stronger in New Hampshire and then even stronger than that in South Carolina,” Haley told ABC News’ Rachel Scott on Monday, referring to her home state’s Feb. 24 primary. “We have saved our money. We’ve got it ready. We’ve got the big ad buy that we’re going to do for South Carolina and we’re going to crisscross the state that I love so much so we’re not we’re not backing out anytime soon.”
Yet if Haley is rejected by voters in the primary race and ends her campaign in the coming days or weeks, that would essentially confirm a Biden-Trump rematch and set off one of the longest general elections in U.S. history.
Biden’s campaign is already preparing for that — and Trump allies have said the same. Biden launched a full court press on abortion rights this week and has been highlighting improvements in the economy and his argument that Trump is a danger to democracy.
Trump, for his part, has been targeting Biden over his age and stamina and negative perceptions on some key issues, particularly the president’s handling of inflation and immigration.
Sununu’s swan song
Haley’s campaign, besides helping determine the next GOP presidential nominee, also marks the swan song for New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, one of her top surrogates who announced last year that he won’t run for reelection in 2024.
Sununu has taken a different tact than most surrogates, who appear at some rallies and do some media appearances, opting instead to appear at virtually every rally and absolutely blitz the media. And Haley’s showing could mark one of his final shows of political strength — or lack thereof — before leaving office.
Sununu is well-liked in his state and he was rumored to be considering both presidential and Senate campaigns in recent years before deciding to stick to his current gig.
He has said he plans on returning to the private sector but has suggested he’ll also find a way to stay in the public eye, including continuing the media appearances he appears to relish.
“I like this media stuff,” he said in an interview with The New York Times. “I have my quiet criticisms on the media, and I’ve gotten to see how they do it, what they do, how they work. And some things I’m impressed by. And some things I’m not. So, I thought, ‘Oh, maybe I could add a little bit of color to what the media is currently doing and maybe enhance that game.'”
How does Biden fare?
There’s notably less action on the Democratic side, but New Hampshire still holds significance for Biden.
The state, led by Republicans, bucked the Democratic National Committee when the party changed up its nominating schedule to make South Carolina’s primary the first on the calendar over New Hampshire.
Because the state didn’t comply, the DNC labeled Tuesday’s primary as pointless and stripped it of any delegates who help award the nomination. Biden, too, declined to appear as a candidate.
Yet Biden’s allies are far from abandoning New Hampshire, worrying that a weak victory or a second-place finish to either Phillips or Williamson would mark a blemish on Biden’s electoral record before he heads into the general election, likely against Trump.
Neither Phillips nor Williamson have been able to muster much momentum in the polls, but overperforming in the state could breathe new life into their campaigns and elevate the argument that Biden is too disliked to run again.
A strong victory there, though, especially via an unusual write-in campaign, would likely weaken the president’s critics.
A protestor is led out by police as Republican presidential hopeful and former President Donald Trump holds a rally in Laconia, New Hampshire, Jan. 22, 2024. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images)
(LACONIA, N.H.) — A rally held by former President Donald Trump ahead of the New Hampshire primary was disrupted Monday night by protesters, who repeatedly interrupted his speech to bring up fossil fuels.
“Every day, the Republican Party is becoming more and more unified,” Trump told the crowd shortly after he took the stage. “We had a very good competitor, Ron, as you know, Ron DeSantis, and he fought hard and he fought well.”
“We started off with 13 and now we’re down to two people, and I think one person will be gone probably tomorrow, and the other one will be gone in November,” Trump continued, referring to his own former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and President Joe Biden.
But shortly into his address, a protester addressing fossil fuels interrupted the former president. Security quickly intervened and escorted the protester out, and the night appeared to be returning to normal with Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota Gov. Burgum, and South Carolina Sen. Scott joining Trump on stage and working the crowd.
Not long after, the event was interrupted by another protester, who shouted, “Oil sellout!” as she was being kicked out of the resort where the event was held.
Additional protesters then repeatedly interrupted Trump’s speech one by one throughout the night. Trump carried on with his address and worked to turn his supporters’ attention back to his speech.
While protesters at Trump’s campaign events are not unheard of, such interruptions haven’t been a frequent occasion over the past few months. Monday night’s protests marked the third Trump campaign event in the past week in New Hampshire that was interrupted by protesters. Rochester Sunday night and Manchester Saturday night both saw protesters speaking out from the crowd.
Adah Crandall, 17, an activist from the Sunrise Movement and one of the protesters who interrupted Trump in Laconia, New Hampshire, Monday night — and to whom Trump jeered, “She’s going home to mommy,” as she was escorted out — explained to ABC News later that she and other Sunrise Movement activists have been attending presidential candidates’ campaign events across the aisle to “demand that they answer for” campaign contributions from the fossil fuel industry.
One of Trump’s major campaign messages this cycle has been “drill, baby, drill” — a push for an expansion of the oil and gas industry for what he calls “energy independence.”
“The goal here is not to persuade Trump supporters,” Crandall said. “The goal here is to show the general public … that our generation deserves better.”
“We are going to be continuing to show up through the general election, holding politicians accountable, making sure that we end up with someone in office who is ready to fight for our generation,” Crandall continued.
Monday night’s rally was Trump’s final pitch to Granite State voters ahead of the first in the nation primary — a show of the Republican Party finally beginning to unite behind him in what’s become a two-person race between Trump and his former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign and immediately endorsed him on Sunday.
(DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H.) — Nikki Haley is the winner of the Dixville Notch midnight primary vote kicking off the official start to the 2024 New Hampshire primary.
All six registered voters in Dixville Notch, a small New Hampshire north country town, voted for Nikki Haley as the clock struck midnight. Together, the group — composed of four registered Republicans and two registered undeclared voters — cast the first votes in the first primary in the country.
“A great start to a great day in New Hampshire,” said Nikki Haley in a statement following the sweep. “Thank you Dixville Notch!”
The process from start to finish took a total 10 minutes.
After the national anthem was played, all six voters walked one-by-one into the voting booth. The ballots were subsequently hand-counted and read out loud before being scribbled on a white board as journalists from all over the country began reporting the results live on air.
The tradition dates back nearly 60 years, but this year Dixville Notch is the only town in New Hampshire that voted at midnight.
Officials with two other towns that traditionally join in on the midnight voting — Millsfield and Hart’s Location — have decided to hold more traditional, daytime voting hours this year.
In the 2020 New Hampshire primary, Michael Bloomberg won the primary after receiving three write-in votes, with Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders each receiving one vote.
