(WASHINGTON) — The Supreme Court on Friday ruled that an Oregon city’s ordinance to bar anyone without a permanent residency from sleeping outside does not amount to “cruel and unusual” punishment under the Eighth Amendment.
The 6-3 opinion was authored by Justice Neil Gorsuch.
Story developing…
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
(NEW YORK) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump met for a showdown over policy and their records, but not everything claimed by the candidates onstage was factual.
Inflation rates, border crossings, Jan. 6, abortion, the stock market and the cost to America of the Paris Climate Accord were among the issues the two sparred over that need a closer look.
ABC News’ politics team analyzed their comments to break down fact from fiction.
Did Biden inherit 9% inflation?
TRUMP CLAIM: “He also said he inherited 9% inflation — no. He inherited almost no inflation, and it stayed … stayed that way for 14 months, and it blew up under his leadership …”
FACT CHECK: This is mostly true. In January 2021, when Biden was inaugurated, year-over-year inflation was about 1.4%. Under Biden, year-over-year inflation peaked at 9.1 % in June 2022. But it is now down to 3.3 %. Under Trump, inflation rose 7.76 % from January 2017 to January 2021, and year-over-year inflation peaked at 2.9 % in July 2018.
–Zunaira Zaki
Were there any military conflicts during Trump’s term in office?
TRUMP CLAIM: “We got…a lot of credit for the military, and no wars and so many other things. Everything was rocking good.”
FACT CHECK: Needs context. While it’s true that Trump did not formally declare war against a foreign power while in the White House, he significantly scaled up military action in Syria and Iraq in the fight against ISIS and also authorized the air strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, putting the country on the brink of a direct conflict with Iran. Pentagon records also show that at least 65 American troops were killed in action during Trump’s term.
–Shannon Kingston
Crime and the Border
TRUMP CLAIM: “We have a border that’s the most dangerous place anywhere in the world, considered the most dangerous place anywhere in the world, and he opened it up, and these killers are coming into our country, and they are raping and killing women.”
FACT-CHECK: False. The reality is that no evidence points to a significant surge in crime caused by recent arrivals. The former president’s claims ignore the fact that, overall, crime is down across the country. According to the latest FBI statistics released quarterly, violent crimes were down 6% in quarter 4 of 2023 (through Dec 2023) compared to the same time frame in 2022. There was a 13% decline in murders and a 4% drop in property crimes across the country. That declining trend followed unprecedented spikes in 2019 and 2020, Trump’s last two years in office.
–Armando Tonatiuh Torres-García
Hunter Biden’s laptop
TRUMP CLAIM: “It’s the same thing — 51 intelligence agents said that the laptop was Russian disinformation. It wasn’t that — it came from his son, Hunter. It wasn’t Russia.”
FACT CHECK: True, but needs unpacking At the final presidential debate of the 2020 cycle, Joe Biden suggested the contents of his son’s laptop’s hard drive — which by then had been dubbed the “laptop from hell” in the New York Post and other conservative outlets — were “garbage” and a “Russian plant.”
Biden’s claim that the laptop hard drive was a “Russian plant” was an apparent reference to a letter signed by 51 retired intelligence officials who wrote that the timing of its emergence “has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”
Several of those signees have since said that Biden mischaracterized the language in their letter.
Furthermore, earlier this month, prosecutors at Hunter Biden’s criminal trial in Delaware introduced the laptop into evidence and, in one of the more theatrical moments of the trial, showed jurors the physical MacBook Pro 13 that Hunter Biden purportedly abandoned at a Wilmington computer repair shop in April 2019.
“Ultimately, in examining that laptop, were investigators able to confirm that it was Hunter Biden’s laptop?” prosecutor Derek Hines asked an FBI agent who testified as an expert witness in Hunter Biden’s recent gun case.
“Yes,” the FBI agent said.
–Lucien Bruggeman
Late-term abortions
TRUMP’S CLAIM: “The problem they have is they are radical because they will take the life of a child in the eighth month, the ninth month and even after birth.”
FACT CHECK: This is not true. Abortions that occur later in pregnancy are around 1% of abortions, according to KFF. Democrats do not call for abortions late into pregnancies, and infanticide is illegal in the U.S. Democrats often respond that abortions that do happen in the third trimester are the result of tragic circumstances in a pregnancy.
–Cheyenne Haslett
Who had a better stock market?
TRUMP CLAIM: “[Biden] created mandates. That was a disaster for our country but other than that we had, we had given back a country where the stock market actually was higher than pre-COVID, and nobody thought that was even possible.
FACT CHECK: Unclear. The Dow hit 30,000 for the first time on November 24, 2020. But that was after the last presidential election, so it’s hard to say whether it was because of Trump’s presidency or because of Biden’s win.
–Zunaira Zaki
Are more terrorists now crossing the border into America?
TRUMP CLAIM: “We have the largest number of terrorists coming into our country right now.”
FACT CHECK: Largely exaggerated. Trump appears to be referring to the increasing number of migrants on the federal terror “watchlist” who are encountered at the border. The number of people encountered by border authorities on the watchlist jumped from three in Trump’s last full year to nearly 100 in the first full fiscal year under Biden. However, the Terrorist Screening Dataset, maintained by the FBI, includes names of people who have suspected ties to individuals who may be affiliated with a foreign terror organization. It is not a comprehensive list of actual terrorists.
–Quinn Owen
Paris Climate Accord
TRUMP CLAIM: “The Paris Accord was going to cost us a trillion dollars and China nothing and Russia nothing, and India nothing. It was a rip-off of the United States, and I ended it because I didn’t want to waste that money because they treated us horribly.”
FACT CHECK: Not entirely true. Biden rejoined the Paris Climate Accord on his first day in office, according to a State Department memo. One-hundred and ninety-six countries signed on to the Paris Accord, agreeing to work together to limit the impacts of climate change and global warming. As part of that, the more developed, wealthier nations committed to contributing $100 billion to support developing countries more vulnerable to climate change’s impacts.
Biden pledged to work with Congress to authorize $11 billion to contribute to the Paris Agreement’s $100 billion in funds to support developing countries who need help adapting to climate change’s impacts. As of 2023, the U.S. was on track to meet that goal with $9.5 billion committed to financing global climate initiatives, according to the State Department.
–Stephanie Ebbs
National Guardsmen on Jan. 6
TRUMP CLAIM: “I offered her [House Speaker Nancy Pelosi] 10,000 soldiers who are National Guard. And she turned them down, and the mayor of – in writing, by the way, the mayor, in writing, turned it down. The mayor of D.C. They turned it down. I offered 10,000 because I could see I had virtually nothing to do. They asked me to go make a speech.”
FACT-CHECK: False. The final report by the bipartisan Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol determined there was “no evidence” to support the claim that Trump gave an order “to have 10,000 troops ready for January 6th.”
The report quoted President Trump’s Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller, who directly refuted this claim under oath, saying, “There was no direct order from the President” to put 10,000 troops to be on the ready for January 6th.
Instead, the report noted that when Trump referenced that number of troops, it was not to protect the Capitol but that he had “floated the idea of having 10,000 National Guardsmen deployed to protect him and his supporters from any supposed threats by left-wing counter-protesters.”
–Luis Martinez
Iran, Israel, and Oct. 7
TRUMP CLAIM: “He [Putin] never would have invaded Ukraine, never, just like Israel would have never been invaded in a million years by Hamas. You know why? Because Iran was broke with me. I wouldn’t let anybody do business with them. They ran out of money. They were broke. They had no money for Hamas. They had no money for anything, no money for terror. That’s why you had no terror at all during my administration.”
FACT CHECK: Not true. Iran has been Hamas’ principal backer for decades, including through the Trump presidency. Although Trump did withdraw from an Obama-era nuclear deal and levy sanctions against Tehran that dealt a sharp blow to its economy, records retrieved from inside Gaza by the Israeli Defense Forces and verified by independent news outlets indicate Iran still funneled tens of millions of dollars to Hamas during his administration. Two of Trump’s top advisers for Middle Eastern affairs also claimed that Iran was supplying Hamas and other Palestinian terror groups with $100 million each year in an op-ed published in 2019.
–Shannon Kingston
Trump’s Manhattan hush-money case
TRUMP CLAIM: “That was a case that was started, and … they moved a high-ranking official, a DOJ, into the Manhattan DA’s office to start that case. … [Biden] basically went after his political opponent because he thought it was going to damage me.”
FACT CHECK: There are a few things to unpack here – but there is no evidence to support either statement.
First, there is no evidence that Joe Biden, as president of the United States, directed or choreographed a state prosecution — which was brought by the Manhattan District Attorney, Alvin Bragg. Biden has no authority to do so, and there is no evidence to support Trump’s assertion.
Second, with regard to the “high-ranking” DOJ official who Trump claims was moved into the District Attorney’s office to “start the case,” Trump appears to be referring to Matthew Colangelo, who left the Justice Department in December of 2022, years after the investigation began. There is no evidence that Biden or the Justice Department coordinated Colangelo’s move. The case was brought by Bragg, an elected Democrat in New York.
Trump was found guilty by a jury of his peers.
–Lucien Bruggeman
Were tax cuts under Trump the largest in history?
TRUMP CLAIM: “I gave you the largest tax cut in history. I also gave you the largest regulation cut in history, that’s why we had all the jobs.”
FACT-CHECK: False. According to Erica York at the Tax Foundation, the Trump-era tax cut (TCJA) was a large tax cut but not the largest in history. If you look at percent of revenue as share of GDP in the first two years, several tax cuts going back to 1940 were larger. The most recent that was larger was the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012.Separately, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the tax cuts under President Ronald Reagan were the largest tax cuts in recent history as a percent of GDP.
At the time the law went into effect, the Tax Foundation estimated that it would boost long-term employment by more than 300,000 jobs. But Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi says, “the tax cuts did support job growth, but at the cost of adding approximately $2 trillion to the nation’s debt.” He added, “The regulatory changes had no measurable impact on job growth.”
–Zunaira Zaki
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
(NEW YORK) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are scheduled to square off again on the debate stage in September.
ABC News will host the Sept. 10 debate, with World News Tonight anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis serving as moderators.
More information on the debate, including the rules, location, staging and format, will be revealed closer to the date.
The ABC News qualifications for debate include receiving at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet ABC’s standards for reporting, appearing on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline, and agreeing to accept the rules and format of the debate.
ABC News’ offices previously hosted two debates in 1960 between then-Vice President Richard Nixon and then-Sen. John F. Kennedy. The first was a split-screen televised debate on Oct. 13, 1960, filmed at ABC News’ New York and Los Angeles studios. Another debate between Kennedy and Nixon took place at ABC News’ New York studios on Oct. 21, 1960.
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
(ATLANTA) — President Joe Biden delivered a halting performance in Thursday’s debate with former President Donald Trump — raising new questions about his future in an event largely viewed as a test of the two candidates’ fitness for office.
The two debated a slate of policies on stage in Atlanta, though little new ground was broken. Much of the focus was instead on how the 81-year-old president and his 78-year-old predecessor would handle another four years in the Oval Office — with Democrats left worrying about Biden’s performance.
Here are five takeaways from Thursday night’s clash:
Biden has slow start
Biden came on stage with a raspy voice and repeatedly stumbled through some of his answers early on.
When asked a question on the national debt, he said there are “thousands of trillionaires” before correcting himself, for instance.
But perhaps his biggest stumble came about 12 minutes into the debate, when he paused for six seconds after discussing ways the country could have spent money provided by taxes on wealthy Americans that would have been accrued were it not for tax cuts passed by Trump during his term.
“We’d be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do, child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system. Making sure that we’re able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with the — with the COVID, excuse me — dealing with everything we have to do with, look … we finally beat Medicare,” Biden said, appearing to lose his train of thought at the end of his answer.
The moment precisely highlighted a major theme heading into the debate — Biden’s mental acuity and fitness for office — and sent Republicans celebrating.
“Game over!!!” Bryan Lanza, a former Trump campaign aide who remains in touch with the former president’s current team, texted ABC News.
Democrats, too, sounded a negative note.
“A few words the Biden team should look up: espresso; and honey and lemon for the throat,” said one high-level Democratic strategist.
Biden appeared to pick up steam as the debate dragged on, dubbing Trump a “convicted felon” and mixing it up over their records, but the president’s performance was less energetic than that of his opponent.
Biden team spins his performance
Biden’s team quickly worked to spin is performance, seemingly recognizing that he likely did not present himself a Democrats had hoped.
The campaign said the president had a cold, but tested negative for COVID-19, though it’s unclear why that news wasn’t announced beforehand. The campaign told ABC News’ Mary Bruce that they’re feeling fine but conceded he had a slow start.
“Tonight, President Biden presented a positive and winning vision for the future of America — one in which every American has a fair shot at the American dream, where every one of our rights are protected, and where our president fights to strengthen our democracy — not to tear it down,” said Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon.
Biden’s allies echoed past support for the president, allowing that the night likely did not go as planned but that the president will remain the nominee.
“I don’t care, I’m going to stick with Joe Biden,” former Democratic National Committee chair Donna Brazile said on ABC News Live.
Trump (mostly) keeps his cool
Operatives were eyeing which version of Trump would appear on stage Thursday: the brawler who repeatedly interrupted Biden at their first 2020 debate? Or would he be a staid presence that would be interpreted as more presidential?
Largely, the latter ended up as a more apt description of Trump’s performance.
To be certain, Trump veered into some of his more bombastic rhetoric — exaggerating the state of the economy under his term and the number of border crossings and crimes taking place under Biden; saying Biden “could be a convicted felon”; and accusing the president of “going after his political opponent because he can’t win fair and square.”
But he did not center his arguments around unfounded claims of election fraud or repeated attacks on Hunter Biden, the president’s only surviving son who was recently convicted on felony gun charges. Oftentimes, he returned his answers to favorable topics for him like inflation and immigration, including on a question regarding the Jan. 6 riot on Capitol Hill.
“Let me tell you about Jan. 6. On Jan. 6, we had a great border. Nobody coming through. Very few on Jan. 6. We were energy independent on Jan. 6, we had the lowest taxes ever. We had the lowest regulations ever,” he said.
Trump’s campaign swiftly declared victory.
“Tonight President Trump delivered the greatest debate performance and victory in history to the largest voter audience in history, making clear exactly how he will improve the lives of every American,” top Trump campaign hands Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles said in a statement.
“Joe Biden on the other hand showed exactly why he deserves to be fired,” they said. “Despite taking a week-long vacation at Camp David to prepare for the debate, Biden was unable to defend his disastrous record on the economy and the border.”
New rules impose cleaner debate, but less pushback
Thursday’s debate had novel rules that were largely successful in imposing a cleaner debate than in the past.
No audience was in the studio to interrupt with applause or boos, and microphones were cut off when candidates were not recognized to speak.
The result was a debate with little crosstalk or disruptions, a stark departure from primary debates earlier this year and debates during 2020, when crosstalk made the candidates’ comments essentially illegible.
However, while the more rigid format helped move the conversation along, there was minimal pushback from moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, who at times opted to move forward rather than correct falsehoods or push for a direct answer to their initial question if a candidate had already used up their time for a response.
And the conversation still veered into the outlandish at times, with both candidates sparring for a few minutes toward the end over their golfing abilities.
“Let’s not act like children,” Trump said.
Lots of policy talk, but little new ground
The structure also helped the moderators and candidates stick to policy, but little new ground was broken on the contenders’ stances on main issues.
Biden vowed to reinstate Roe v. Wade and protect abortion rights, raise taxes on wealthy Americans and support Ukraine.
Trump defended his tax cuts, said he would force European allies to boost their own efforts to back Ukraine in its fight against Russia and declared that Israel should be able to continue its military operations in Gaza.
However, voters will be left with little new information about what the two candidates believe on key issues that they haven’t heard on the campaign trail.
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
(ATLANTA) — In a historic clash of personality and policy, Joe Biden and Donald Trump took the stage for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election.
The showdown provided a rare opportunity for both candidates to move the needle in what has been a stubbornly tight race for the White House, but at the end of the night, Biden’s halting performance raised new concerns among Democrats and cause Republicans to celebrate.
The debate was a rematch for Biden and Trump, who faced each other twice in 2020, but a first-of-its-kind format and a vastly different political landscape presented new challenges for the two rivals.
Here’s how the debate developed:
Jun 27, 10:58 PM
Bitter debate offers little new insight into Biden, Trump policy goals
For the most part, tonight’s debate revealed nothing new about what Biden and Trump think on major issues from the economy, immigration, foreign policy and reproductive rights.
Each candidate reiterated positions they’ve already touted countless times on the campaign stump.
Instead, they largely focused on criticizing each other’s past records and lobbing personal attacks.
Jun 27, 10:47 PM
Trump targets Biden during his closing argument
In his two-minute closing argument, Trump went after Biden’s record abroad in a personal attack.
“They don’t respect you throughout the world,” he said.
Trump said he had the largest tax cut and the largest regulation cuts in history, but the country is now “exploding.”
“We’re a failing nation, but it’s not going to be failing anymore,” he said. “We’re going to make it great again.”
Jun 27, 10:36 PM
Trump deflects when asked if will accept election results
Trump went to other topics when asked if he would accept the results of the 2024 election and had to be asked the question several times.
The former president finally responded, “If it’s a fair and legal and good election absolutely,” before adding that he would have accepted the last election if not for “the fraud.” There was no evidence of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election.
Biden pushed back that Trump’s fraud claims were debunked by courts, telling him, “You can’t stand the loss.”
“I doubt you’ll accept it because you’re a whiner,” he said.
Jun 27, 10:41 PM
Biden delivers closing argument
“We have made significant progress from the debacle that was left by President Trump in his last term,” Biden said.
Biden then went on to summarize some of his signature policies. On the economy, he vowed he will not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000 a year and to continue his work to reduce health care costs, child care costs and give families financial breathing room.
“We’re going to continue to fight to bring down inflation and give people a break,” Biden said in closing.
Jun 27, 10:37 PM
Candidates asked to address opioid crisis
The candidates were asked what they could do to help Americans battling the opioid crisis in the U.S.
After being prompted to respond to the question, Trump said that during his term as president they had “great equipment” and drug-detecting dogs to find illicit drugs at the border.
Biden said the U.S. needs machinery that can detect fentanyl and more agents at the border, and added that the U.S. is coming down “very hard” on countries in Asia that are producing fentanyl.
Jun 27, 10:32 PM
Biden, Trump asked about voter concerns about their age
Moderator Dana Bash asked Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, to address voter concerns about their age.
“First of all, I spent half my career being criticized for being the youngest person in politics,” Biden said. “I was the second youngest person ever elected to the United States Senate. And now I’m the oldest. This guy’s three years younger and a lot less competent.”
Biden said voters should look at his record and what his administration’s accomplished.
Trump pointed to the “cognitive test” he’s taken. In 2018, he took the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, a test designed to detect early signs of memory loss and other mild cognitive impairment.
“He took none,” Trump said of Biden. “I’d like to see him take one, just one, a really easy one. Like go through the first five questions, he couldn’t do it.”
Jun 27, 10:14 PM
Biden has a cold, campaign says
An hour in and here is the Biden campaign spin on what so far has been a rocky performance by the president.
Biden has a cold (but tested negative for COVID-19), the campaign confirms. They haven’t offered any explanation for why they didn’t disclose this sooner.
Overall, the campaign says they are feeling fine. They agree it was a slow start but say he’s found his groove.
-ABC News’ Mary Bruce and Molly Nagle
Jun 27, 10:12 PM
Biden attacks Trump over scandals
Trump has made several comments about going after his political opponents and retribution. Asked to clarify what he meant, Trump replied, “Well, I said my retribution is going to be success.”
He also contended that he’s done nothing wrong despite his numerous criminal and civil cases.
Biden fired back contending that Trump’s claims that he has the right to seek retribution is wrong. He then went after Trump over his various scandals.
“The crimes you are still charged with and think of all the civil penalties you have, how many billions of dollars … and civil penalties? For molesting a woman in public for doing a whole range of things … having sex with a porn star … while your wife was pregnant? What would you be talking about? You have the morals of an alley cat,” Biden said.
Jun 27, 10:01 PM
Biden says Trump voters are voting against democracy
When asked point-blank whether he believes the millions of Americans who are likely to vote for Trump will be voting against American democracy — in reference to the president’s past comment that Trump and his MAGA Republicans are “determined to destroy American democracy,” Biden responded, “Yes, the more they know about what he’s done.”
Biden went on to reference Trump’s comment that there were “very fine people on both sides” of clashes at a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017.
“This guy has no sense of American democracy,” Biden said.
Trump called his accusation false.
Jun 27, 9:50 PM
Biden calls Trump a ‘convicted felon’ and Trump brings up Hunter
Amid questioning about democracy and the Trump mob attack on the U.S. Capitol, Biden took a shot at Trump’s historic conviction in the hush money case.
“The only convicted felon is the guy standing on the stage with me now,” Biden said.
Trump then quickly brought up Hunter Biden’s recent conviction on federal gun charges.
Jun 27, 9:45 PM
Trump deflects when asked about Jan. 6, violating oath
Trump largely avoiding taking on a question about what he would say to Americans who believe he violated his oath on Jan. 6, 2021, and are worried he would do it again.
Instead, he pivoted to the border and to criticizing Biden’s record.
Moderator Jake Tapper pressed him again, saying there was 80 seconds remaining to answer the question. Trump went on to attack former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Jun 27, 9:42 PM
Biden addresses Trump’s alleged ‘suckers’ veterans comment: ‘You’re the sucker’
In a heated moment in response to Trump’s claim that the president “doesn’t care about our veterans,” Biden referenced a 2020 Atlantic article in which Trump was reported to have called Americans killed as “suckers” while on a trip to visit the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in France in 2018.
On the subsequently canceled visit, the Atlantic reported that Trump told senior staff members, “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.”
Referring to his late son Beau during the debate, Biden said to Trump, “My son was not a loser, was not a sucker. You’re the sucker, you’re the loser.”
Trump responded by saying it was in a “third-rate magazine” and the source had “made it up.”
Jun 27, 9:48 PM
Trump makes false claims Democrats support killing babies after birth
During the debate, Trump claimed that Democrats “support abortion up to and even beyond the ninth month,” and contended that some Democratic states have had such a stance.
Democrats have never advocated for killing a baby after it is born as this would be murder, which is illegal in every state. Nine states have no abortion restrictions in place; however, it should be noted that late-term abortions are exceedingly rare, representing 1%, according to KFF.
Jun 27, 9:20 PM
Biden stumbles, pauses for several seconds
Biden stumbled as he attacked Trump and defended his own record, pausing for several seconds.
The president was discussing domestic programs he hoped to be able to invest in with the money that would be gained by taxes the wealthiest Americans before trailing off and pausing, ultimately saying “we beat Medicare.”
“He did beat Medicare, he beat it to death,” Trump responded.
Jun 27, 9:24 PM
Trump says he will not block abortion pills
Trump, who had yet to clarify his stance on abortion medication, said he would not block access to the drug if elected.
Jun 27, 9:15 PM
Trump asked about plan to impose 10% tariff on goods coming to US
Asked how he would ensure that his plan to impose a 10% tariff on all goods coming to the U.S. wouldn’t drive prices higher Trump said it won’t drive them higher but will force countries like China to “pay us a lot of money” and “give us a lot of power for other things,” though didn’t elaborate.
Jun 27, 9:13 PM
Biden defends economic record in 1st exchange of the night
Biden fielded the first question from moderator Jake Tapper, who asked him what his message was to Americans who feel worse off financially under his administration than they did under Trump.
Biden claimed he was handed an economy in “free fall.” He touted his record on job creation and lowering prescription drug prices and other household costs.
Trump, in turn, claimed he he had “the greatest economy in the history of our country” and that inflation is “absolutely killing us.”
Jun 27, 9:04 PM
Candidates take the stage
Biden and Trump are now at the lecterns. The two entered from different sides of the stage and did not shake hands.
Jun 27, 8:59 PM
Melania Trump not attending debate
ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott reported that Melania Trump will not be at the debate.
The former first lady has made few appearances on the campaign trail as her husband seeks another term.
Jun 27, 8:54 PM
Biden pokes fun at Trump’s jabs about performance-enhancing substances
Biden posted a photo on x taking a shot at Trump’s allegations that he’s taking performance-enhancing substances for the debate.
The president is seen holding a can of water with the “Dark Brandon” meme image claiming to be “Dark Brandon’s secret sauce.” The can, which will go on sale on the Biden campaign’s site next month, has a statement in bold letters “Get real, Jack. It’s just water.”
“I don’t know what they’ve got in these performance enhancers, but I’m feeling pretty jacked up. Try it yourselves, folks. See you in a bit,” the X post said.
Jun 27, 8:44 PM
Muted mics and other new ground rules for tonight
For the first time since the first televised debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960, there will be no live audience at CNN’s studio in Atlanta.
The candidates’ microphones will be muted unless it is their turn to speak. They will have two minutes to respond to questions and one minute for rebuttals, and there will be a red flashing light to indicate to them their time is about to expire.
The 90-minute program will have two commercial breaks, but Trump and Biden won’t be able to consult with their teams during them. No props or note cards are allowed on stage.
Here’s what experts said about the new rules, and how they may help or hurt each candidate.
Jun 27, 8:28 PM
Possible VP picks on hand to support Trump at debate
Several possible vice presidential picks for Trump are in Atlanta for the debate.
Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., Tim Scott, R-S.C., and J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson were seen in a picture posted to X by Stefanik.
Trump has repeatedly teased an announcement of who will join him in the 2024 ticket, but he has yet to make a final decision.
Jun 27, 8:23 PM
Swing-state voters on what they want to hear from Biden, Trump
Voters across Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania spoke with ABC News about their unhappiness with both candidates and what they’re looking to hear from them during the debate.
“I’d like to see what they’re going to do for small businesses in this country,” said Scranton resident Jennifer Merceau, whose husband owns a masonry company.
Janee Johnson, who works at Toast ‘N Jams in Muskegon, Michigan, said the focus should be on doing the “right things for America.”
Michael Kordecki, the owner of that restaurant, wishes he could tell the candidates to “be more positive about America, about our future, and about what we can do with or without new people coming into the country.”
Jun 27, 8:14 PM
This is the earliest presidential debate in history
With 131 days until Election Day, this faceoff is occurring months ahead of the usual fall timeline.
“The combination of having so many people with doubts about both candidates, coupled with the first debate occurring before either convention, heightens its potential importance,” Republican political strategist Whit Ayres told ABC News.
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville told ABC News: “People’s attitudes are very fixed and voters tend to be pretty entrenched. The person that ‘wins’ … in this debate is going to be the one that provides voters with some new information.”
-ABC News’ Isabella Murray and Tommy Barone
Jun 27, 7:46 PM
PolitiFact is joining the blog tonight to help sort out fact from fiction
Hi everyone, I’m Aaron Sharockman, the executive director of PolitiFact. I’m excited to join the ABC/538 team to provide fact-checking of the candidates. If you don’t know PolitiFact, we’ve been fact-checking political statements since 2007 using our Truth-O-Meter, which rates claims on a scale from True to Pants on Fire False.
We’ll be providing you real-time updates throughout the night.
How? Well, it’s not because we’re super smart or super fast (though maybe we are a little bit). No, it’s really because we’ve been fact-checking Biden and Trump for more than a dozen years. And over all those years, and all their campaigns, they’ve said a lot of things worth fact-checking.
And both candidates often repeat themselves.
Our team of 25 fact-checkers and editors have prepped dozens of instant fact-checks based on what we expect Trump and Biden might say. And if they do, we’ll be able to share that analysis with you almost instantly.
If you want a primer of what we expect to hear tonight — and how accurate those claims are — you can take a look here.
-Analysis by Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact
Jun 27, 7:37 PM
Where 538’s Biden-Trump election forecast stands before the debate
Heading into tonight’s event, Biden and Trump are locked in a close contest. 538’s presidential election forecast rates the race as a dead heat, with both Biden and Trump having about a 1 in 2 shot of winning the election. This falls in line with our national polling average, which has the two candidates just about tied at 41%, with Kennedy polling at 9%.
But as readers know, U.S. presidential elections aren’t decided by the national popular vote. Instead, they’re decided by the Electoral College, where the results in individual states determine who wins each state’s electoral votes, with a majority of 270 out of 538 in total necessary to claim victory. Currently, the forecast shows an extremely tight race in each of the most pivotal states.
For instance, Biden’s path to victory may rest primarily on winning the Frost Belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that he carried in 2020. While the forecast shows him with small leads in each of those states, Biden’s advantage is well inside the range of potential outcomes, meaning Trump could easily carry them once we get to November. Meanwhile, Trump holds a narrow edge in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, but similarly his leads are far from secure.
Still, with nearly four months to go until Election Day, there’s a great deal of uncertainty around where public opinion will stand when voters cast their ballots. 538’s forecast utilizes a combination of polling information and campaign fundamentals, such as the economic situation and each state’s partisan leanings. Together, those indicators show a toss-up race that could go in either direction.
Now, tonight’s debate could move the contest: Historically, the margin in presidential races has shifted by an average of about 2 points in the two weeks following the first general election debate in cycles dating back to 1976. In what could be bad news for Biden, that movement has more often than not gone against the incumbent president or party. Yet we’re still sailing in uncharted waters. After all, this election involves both a sitting and former president, an unprecedented matchup in modern times. The debate is history-making, too: It’s nearly three months earlier than any past general election face-off.
-538’s Geoffrey Skelley
Jun 27, 7:27 PM
Jill Biden says president ‘confident’ ahead of debate
Hours before the debate, first lady Jill Biden told deep-pocked donors that the president is “ready” for his faceoff against Trump.
“Joe’s ready to go. He’s prepared. He’s confident,” she said at a fundraising retreat at the Ritz-Carlton in downtown Atlanta, according to the press pool. “You know what a great debater he is.”
She thanked donors for “making the right choice” for democracy, urging them to keep up their work in support of Biden, according to the press pool.
“We can’t stop now. We can’t get complacent,” the first lady said. “We’ve got to keep working together, working harder than we’ve ever worked before.”
-ABC News’ Fritz Farrow, Gabriella Abdul-Hakim and Will McDuffie
Jun 27, 7:24 PM
WHCA protests pool reporters being barred from debate studio
The White House Correspondents’ Association is “deeply concerned” that CNN has barred travel pool reporters from being inside the studio and close to Biden during all of tonight’s historic presidential debate.
Despite “repeated requests” for White House pool access, CNN will allow only one print reporter to enter during a commercial break for a brief observation.
“That is not sufficient in our view and diminishes a core principle of presidential coverage,” president of the WHCA Kelly O’Donnell said in a statement Thursday.
“The pool is there for the ‘what ifs?’ in a world where the unexpected does happen,” O’Donnell said.
-ABC News’ Emily Chang
Jun 27, 7:14 PM
Candidates prepare for interruptions despite muted mics
Just because their microphones will be turned on only when it’s their turn to speak, it doesn’t mean there won’t be interruptions, and campaign staffers of both candidates are preparing for it.
Since the candidates are still only 8 feet apart, there is a scenario where the viewer may not hear an interruption, but the other candidate and the moderators will.
Advisers from both campaigns told reporters that’s something they’ve acknowledged or discussed in debate preparations.
The Biden campaign said it is hoping the president just flat-out ignores any distractions or comments that Trump makes.
The Trump campaign said it is aware that tonight they could play this both ways: The former president could stay on message when his microphone is turned on but make off-hand comments to irk Biden when his microphone is turned off.
When it comes to the traditional handshake between the candidates before the event, both sides are being coy.
One Biden adviser said, “I wouldn’t do it,” while an adviser for the Trump campaign responded simply by laughing.
-ABC News’ Rachel Scott
Jun 27, 7:03 PM
Biden, Trump face differing expectations heading into debate
Biden and Trump are navigating different expectations heading into the debate — though Republicans have largely set the standards for each.
Polls show that voters share concerns about Biden’s age (81 years old) and fitness for office, and Republicans have for years cast the president as a dithering man. Showing vitality, as he did during this year’s State of the Union, and nimbly mixing it up with Trump, could help alleviate those worries, Democrats told ABC News.
Trump, meanwhile, has been working overtime to set his own expectations. He’s repeatedly demeaned CNN — the host — to suggest he’ll be debating behind enemy lines. And he’s emphasized his unfounded claims that Biden will be on some kind of drug to enhance his performance, seemingly to undercut the prospect of a good performance by the president. Some Republicans have also been highlighting Biden’s extensive resume of running races and debating.
Still, Trump’s allies are setting high expectations for him, with senior adviser Jason Miller telling ABC News that Trump has demonstrated “elite stamina.”
Jun 27, 6:38 PM
Trump raises his fist as he exits plane in Atlanta
Trump arrived in Atlanta just before 5:30 p.m. As he exited the plane, he raised his fist and clapped his hands.
He went straight into his motorcade without approaching or greeting nearly 200 supporters who gathered to welcome him.
Accompanying him were his advisers Susie Wiles, Steven Cheung, James Blair, Jason Miller, Chris LaCivita, and Corey Lewandowski. The only lawmaker on the plane with him was Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida.
Jun 27, 6:33 PM
Biden stops to greet supporters on way to debate studio
Biden stepped off Air Force One in Georgia about 3:15 p.m. to greet a group of supporters on the tarmac applauding his arrival. The president was donning his signature aviators and a navy-blue suit.
He spent several moments shaking hands with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens, former mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Stacey Abrams and Jason Carter, Jimmy Carter’s grandson.
As he made his way to CNN’s studio, Biden made an unexpected stop to shake hands with a group of cheering supporters. The group held “Dark Brandon” cardboard cutouts and chanted “Let’s go, Joe!” and “Four More Years!”
Biden moved down the line to shake hands and meet people for nearly 10 minutes.
-ABC News’ Molly Nagle
Jun 27, 6:27 PM
Debate impact wanes amid polarization, viral competition: Experts
As Biden and Trump prepare to square off in their first political debate in four years, historians and experts contend the matchup may have a small but crucial impact on the election.
Aaron Kall, director of debate for the University of Michigan’s Debate Program, told ABC News the majority of those who tune in are likely already locked into a preferred candidate.
“Nothing that occurs during the 90-minute debate is going to change or influence who they’re going to vote for,” he said.
However, Kall and other experts ABC News spoke with said there is still a smaller group of undecided voters who do tune in and can be swayed by the performances.
With the last two presidential elections decided by just tens of thousands of votes in a few states — many cast by independent voters — candidates’ debate strategies have become laser-focused on courting that group, according to Julien Labarre, administrator of the University of California Santa Barbara’s Center of Information Technology & Society.
“What we see is people who were not thinking of going to vote being turned into voters,” he told ABC News. “Spurring people into participation, we do see that kind of effect.”
-ABC News’ Ivan Pereira
Jun 27, 6:05 PM
How Americans feel going into the debate
After tonight’s debate, there will be a rush to anoint a “winner” and a “loser,” but the only way we can really do that is once we have data on how the debate will actually affect people’s votes. To that end, 538 partnered with Ipsos to poll the same group of likely voters both before and after the debate to see how their attitudes change. Here are some of the key findings from our pre-debate poll, which was conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.
First, we asked respondents to rate how well they thought each candidate would perform in the debate tonight on a five-point scale. On average, Trump got a score of 2.96 out of 5, and Biden got a score of 2.58 out of 5. In other words, expectations are significantly lower for Biden tonight, which could end up helping him — even a so-so performance from Biden would exceed most people’s expectations.
It looks like the reason people have such low expectations for Biden is his advanced age. We also asked respondents to grade each candidate’s physical, mental and emotional fitness on a five-point scale. On average, Biden got just a 2.3 out of 5 on physical fitness and a 2.4 out of 5 on mental fitness. Trump bested him on both of those measures, but Trump got only a 2.6 out of 5 on emotional fitness, which was lower than Biden’s score.
We also asked voters what issues would have the most impact on their vote. Fifty percent ranked inflation or increasing costs as one of their top three issues, while 37% included immigration. Voters also said Trump would do a better job handling those issues than Biden, so it will be especially important for the president to show strength on these issues tonight.
Finally, we asked voters which candidates they were considering supporting. Heading into the debate, 44.8% of voters are at least considering voting for Trump, 44.5% are at least considering voting for Biden and 18.5% are at least considering voting for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who failed to qualify for the debate. (Respondents could say they were considering multiple candidates, which is why these numbers add up to more than 100%.) We’ll ask voters the same question after the debate to see whether these numbers shift.
-538’s Nathaniel Rakich
Jun 27, 5:56 PM
Debate offers rare chance to change a rigid race
The debate between Biden and Trump marks one of the few foreseeable opportunities to change a race characterized by stagnant polls.
Literal history is in the rearview in the race, including 34 felony convictions for Trump in New York — that leaves just the debates, the party conventions and Trump’s sentencing as the only dates on the calendar that the campaigns could circle as opportunities to try to gain an edge.
“If you’re looking at the calendar for the next five months, this is one of those moments. And somebody’s going to take advantage of it,” Chip Saltsman, a GOP strategist who worked on former Vice President Mike Pence’s now-suspended presidential bid, told ABC News.
Read more here.
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
(WASHINGTON) — In what is set to be a historic clash of personality and policy, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will soon take the stage for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election.
The showdown will provide a rare opportunity for both candidates to move the needle in what has been a stubbornly tight race for the White House.
The debate is a rematch for Biden and Trump, who faced each other twice in 2020, but a first-of-its-kind format and a vastly different political landscape present new challenges for the two rivals.
Here’s how the news is developing.
Jun 27, 7:46 PM
PolitiFact is joining the blog tonight to help sort out fact from fiction
Hi everyone, I’m Aaron Sharockman, the executive director of PolitiFact. I’m excited to join the ABC/538 team to provide fact-checking of the candidates. If you don’t know PolitiFact, we’ve been fact-checking political statements since 2007 using our Truth-O-Meter, which rates claims on a scale from True to Pants on Fire False.
We’ll be providing you real-time updates throughout the night.
How? Well, it’s not because we’re super smart or super fast (though maybe we are a little bit). No, it’s really because we’ve been fact-checking Biden and Trump for more than a dozen years. And over all those years, and all their campaigns, they’ve said a lot of things worth fact-checking.
And both candidates often repeat themselves.
Our team of 25 fact-checkers and editors have prepped dozens of instant fact-checks based on what we expect Trump and Biden might say. And if they do, we’ll be able to share that analysis with you almost instantly.
If you want a primer of what we expect to hear tonight — and how accurate those claims are — you can take a look here.
-Analysis by Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact
Jun 27, 7:37 PM
Where 538’s Biden-Trump election forecast stands before the debate
Heading into tonight’s event, Biden and Trump are locked in a close contest. 538’s presidential election forecast rates the race as a dead heat, with both Biden and Trump having about a 1 in 2 shot of winning the election. This falls in line with our national polling average, which has the two candidates just about tied at 41%, with Kennedy polling at 9%.
But as readers know, U.S. presidential elections aren’t decided by the national popular vote. Instead, they’re decided by the Electoral College, where the results in individual states determine who wins each state’s electoral votes, with a majority of 270 out of 538 in total necessary to claim victory. Currently, the forecast shows an extremely tight race in each of the most pivotal states.
For instance, Biden’s path to victory may rest primarily on winning the Frost Belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that he carried in 2020. While the forecast shows him with small leads in each of those states, Biden’s advantage is well inside the range of potential outcomes, meaning Trump could easily carry them once we get to November. Meanwhile, Trump holds a narrow edge in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, but similarly his leads are far from secure.
Still, with nearly four months to go until Election Day, there’s a great deal of uncertainty around where public opinion will stand when voters cast their ballots. 538’s forecast utilizes a combination of polling information and campaign fundamentals, such as the economic situation and each state’s partisan leanings. Together, those indicators show a toss-up race that could go in either direction.
Now, tonight’s debate could move the contest: Historically, the margin in presidential races has shifted by an average of about 2 points in the two weeks following the first general election debate in cycles dating back to 1976. In what could be bad news for Biden, that movement has more often than not gone against the incumbent president or party. Yet we’re still sailing in uncharted waters. After all, this election involves both a sitting and former president, an unprecedented matchup in modern times. The debate is history-making, too: It’s nearly three months earlier than any past general election face-off.
-538’s Geoffrey Skelley
Jun 27, 7:27 PM
Jill Biden says president ‘confident’ ahead of debate
Hours before the debate, first lady Jill Biden told deep-pocked donors that the president is “ready” for his faceoff against Trump.
“Joe’s ready to go. He’s prepared. He’s confident,” she said at a fundraising retreat at the Ritz-Carlton in downtown Atlanta, according to the press pool. “You know what a great debater he is.”
She thanked donors for “making the right choice” for democracy, urging them to keep up their work in support of Biden, according to the press pool.
“We can’t stop now. We can’t get complacent,” the first lady said. “We’ve got to keep working together, working harder than we’ve ever worked before.”
-ABC News’ Fritz Farrow, Gabriella Abdul-Hakim and Will McDuffie
Jun 27, 7:24 PM
WHCA protests pool reporters being barred from debate studio
The White House Correspondents’ Association is “deeply concerned” that CNN has barred travel pool reporters from being inside the studio and close to Biden during all of tonight’s historic presidential debate.
Despite “repeated requests” for White House pool access, CNN will allow only one print reporter to enter during a commercial break for a brief observation.
“That is not sufficient in our view and diminishes a core principle of presidential coverage,” president of the WHCA Kelly O’Donnell said in a statement Thursday.
“The pool is there for the ‘what ifs?’ in a world where the unexpected does happen,” O’Donnell said.
-ABC News’ Emily Chang
Jun 27, 7:14 PM
Candidates prepare for interruptions despite muted mics
Just because their microphones will be turned on only when it’s their turn to speak, it doesn’t mean there won’t be interruptions, and campaign staffers of both candidates are preparing for it.
Since the candidates are still only 8 feet apart, there is a scenario where the viewer may not hear an interruption, but the other candidate and the moderators will.
Advisers from both campaigns told reporters that’s something they’ve acknowledged or discussed in debate preparations.
The Biden campaign said it is hoping the president just flat-out ignores any distractions or comments that Trump makes.
The Trump campaign said it is aware that tonight they could play this both ways: The former president could stay on message when his microphone is turned on but make off-hand comments to irk Biden when his microphone is turned off.
When it comes to the traditional handshake between the candidates before the event, both sides are being coy.
One Biden adviser said, “I wouldn’t do it,” while an adviser for the Trump campaign responded simply by laughing.
-ABC News’ Rachel Scott
Jun 27, 7:03 PM
Biden, Trump face differing expectations heading into debate
Biden and Trump are navigating different expectations heading into the debate — though Republicans have largely set the standards for each.
Polls show that voters share concerns about Biden’s age (81 years old) and fitness for office, and Republicans have for years cast the president as a dithering man. Showing vitality, as he did during this year’s State of the Union, and nimbly mixing it up with Trump, could help alleviate those worries, Democrats told ABC News.
Trump, meanwhile, has been working overtime to set his own expectations. He’s repeatedly demeaned CNN — the host — to suggest he’ll be debating behind enemy lines. And he’s emphasized his unfounded claims that Biden will be on some kind of drug to enhance his performance, seemingly to undercut the prospect of a good performance by the president. Some Republicans have also been highlighting Biden’s extensive resume of running races and debating.
Still, Trump’s allies are setting high expectations for him, with senior adviser Jason Miller telling ABC News that Trump has demonstrated “elite stamina.”
Jun 27, 6:38 PM
Trump raises his fist as he exits plane in Atlanta
Trump arrived in Atlanta just before 5:30 p.m. As he exited the plane, he raised his fist and clapped his hands.
He went straight into his motorcade without approaching or greeting nearly 200 supporters who gathered to welcome him.
Accompanying him were his advisers Susie Wiles, Steven Cheung, James Blair, Jason Miller, Chris LaCivita, and Corey Lewandowski. The only lawmaker on the plane with him was Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida.
Jun 27, 6:33 PM
Biden stops to greet supporters on way to debate studio
Biden stepped off Air Force One in Georgia about 3:15 p.m. to greet a group of supporters on the tarmac applauding his arrival. The president was donning his signature aviators and a navy-blue suit.
He spent several moments shaking hands with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens, former mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Stacey Abrams and Jason Carter, Jimmy Carter’s grandson.
As he made his way to CNN’s studio, Biden made an unexpected stop to shake hands with a group of cheering supporters. The group held “Dark Brandon” cardboard cutouts and chanted “Let’s go, Joe!” and “Four More Years!”
Biden moved down the line to shake hands and meet people for nearly 10 minutes.
-ABC News’ Molly Nagle
Jun 27, 6:27 PM
Debate impact wanes amid polarization, viral competition: Experts
As Biden and Trump prepare to square off in their first political debate in four years, historians and experts contend the matchup may have a small but crucial impact on the election.
Aaron Kall, director of debate for the University of Michigan’s Debate Program, told ABC News the majority of those who tune in are likely already locked into a preferred candidate.
“Nothing that occurs during the 90-minute debate is going to change or influence who they’re going to vote for,” he said.
However, Kall and other experts ABC News spoke with said there is still a smaller group of undecided voters who do tune in and can be swayed by the performances.
With the last two presidential elections decided by just tens of thousands of votes in a few states — many cast by independent voters — candidates’ debate strategies have become laser-focused on courting that group, according to Julien Labarre, administrator of the University of California Santa Barbara’s Center of Information Technology & Society.
“What we see is people who were not thinking of going to vote being turned into voters,” he told ABC News. “Spurring people into participation, we do see that kind of effect.”
-ABC News’ Ivan Pereira
Jun 27, 6:05 PM
How Americans feel going into the debate
After tonight’s debate, there will be a rush to anoint a “winner” and a “loser,” but the only way we can really do that is once we have data on how the debate will actually affect people’s votes. To that end, 538 partnered with Ipsos to poll the same group of likely voters both before and after the debate to see how their attitudes change. Here are some of the key findings from our pre-debate poll, which was conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.
First, we asked respondents to rate how well they thought each candidate would perform in the debate tonight on a five-point scale. On average, Trump got a score of 2.96 out of 5, and Biden got a score of 2.58 out of 5. In other words, expectations are significantly lower for Biden tonight, which could end up helping him — even a so-so performance from Biden would exceed most people’s expectations.
It looks like the reason people have such low expectations for Biden is his advanced age. We also asked respondents to grade each candidate’s physical, mental and emotional fitness on a five-point scale. On average, Biden got just a 2.3 out of 5 on physical fitness and a 2.4 out of 5 on mental fitness. Trump bested him on both of those measures, but Trump got only a 2.6 out of 5 on emotional fitness, which was lower than Biden’s score.
We also asked voters what issues would have the most impact on their vote. Fifty percent ranked inflation or increasing costs as one of their top three issues, while 37% included immigration. Voters also said Trump would do a better job handling those issues than Biden, so it will be especially important for the president to show strength on these issues tonight.
Finally, we asked voters which candidates they were considering supporting. Heading into the debate, 44.8% of voters are at least considering voting for Trump, 44.5% are at least considering voting for Biden and 18.5% are at least considering voting for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who failed to qualify for the debate. (Respondents could say they were considering multiple candidates, which is why these numbers add up to more than 100%.) We’ll ask voters the same question after the debate to see whether these numbers shift.
-538’s Nathaniel Rakich
Jun 27, 5:56 PM
Debate offers rare chance to change a rigid race
The debate between Biden and Trump marks one of the few foreseeable opportunities to change a race characterized by stagnant polls.
Literal history is in the rearview in the race, including 34 felony convictions for Trump in New York — that leaves just the debates, the party conventions and Trump’s sentencing as the only dates on the calendar that the campaigns could circle as opportunities to try to gain an edge.
“If you’re looking at the calendar for the next five months, this is one of those moments. And somebody’s going to take advantage of it,” Chip Saltsman, a GOP strategist who worked on former Vice President Mike Pence’s now-suspended presidential bid, told ABC News.
Read more here.
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
(WASHINGTON) — In what is set to be a historic clash of personality and policy, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will soon take the stage for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election.
The showdown will provide a rare opportunity for both candidates to move the needle in what has been a stubbornly tight race for the White House.
The debate is a rematch for Biden and Trump, who faced each other twice in 2020, but a first-of-its-kind format and a vastly different political landscape present new challenges for the two rivals.
Here’s how the news is developing.
Jun 27, 7:03 PM
Biden, Trump face differing expectations heading into debate
Biden and Trump are navigating different expectations heading into the debate — though Republicans have largely set the standards for each.
Polls show that voters share concerns about Biden’s age (81 years old) and fitness for office, and Republicans have for years cast the president as a dithering man. Showing vitality, as he did during this year’s State of the Union, and nimbly mixing it up with Trump, could help alleviate those worries, Democrats told ABC News.
Trump, meanwhile, has been working overtime to set his own expectations. He’s repeatedly demeaned CNN — the host — to suggest he’ll be debating behind enemy lines. And he’s emphasized his unfounded claims that Biden will be on some kind of drug to enhance his performance, seemingly to undercut the prospect of a good performance by the president. Some Republicans have also been highlighting Biden’s extensive resume of running races and debating.
Still, Trump’s allies are setting high expectations for him, with senior adviser Jason Miller telling ABC News that Trump has demonstrated “elite stamina.”
Jun 27, 6:38 PM
Trump raises his fist as he exits plane in Atlanta
Trump arrived in Atlanta just before 5:30 p.m. As he exited the plane, he raised his fist and clapped his hands.
He went straight into his motorcade without approaching or greeting nearly 200 supporters who gathered to welcome him.
Accompanying him were his advisers Susie Wiles, Steven Cheung, James Blair, Jason Miller, Chris LaCivita, and Corey Lewandowski. The only lawmaker on the plane with him was Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida.
Jun 27, 6:33 PM
Biden stops to greet supporters on way to debate studio
Biden stepped off Air Force One in Georgia about 3:15 p.m. to greet a group of supporters on the tarmac applauding his arrival. The president was donning his signature aviators and a navy-blue suit.
He spent several moments shaking hands with Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens, former mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Stacey Abrams and Jason Carter, Jimmy Carter’s grandson.
As he made his way to CNN’s studio, Biden made an unexpected stop to shake hands with a group of cheering supporters. The group held “Dark Brandon” cardboard cutouts and chanted “Let’s go, Joe!” and “Four More Years!”
Biden moved down the line to shake hands and meet people for nearly 10 minutes.
-ABC News’ Molly Nagle
Jun 27, 6:27 PM
Debate impact wanes amid polarization, viral competition: Experts
As Biden and Trump prepare to square off in their first political debate in four years, historians and experts contend the matchup may have a small but crucial impact on the election.
Aaron Kall, director of debate for the University of Michigan’s Debate Program, told ABC News the majority of those who tune in are likely already locked into a preferred candidate.
“Nothing that occurs during the 90-minute debate is going to change or influence who they’re going to vote for,” he said.
However, Kall and other experts ABC News spoke with said there is still a smaller group of undecided voters who do tune in and can be swayed by the performances.
With the last two presidential elections decided by just tens of thousands of votes in a few states — many cast by independent voters — candidates’ debate strategies have become laser-focused on courting that group, according to Julien Labarre, administrator of the University of California Santa Barbara’s Center of Information Technology & Society.
“What we see is people who were not thinking of going to vote being turned into voters,” he told ABC News. “Spurring people into participation, we do see that kind of effect.”
-ABC News’ Ivan Pereira
Jun 27, 6:05 PM
How Americans feel going into the debate
After tonight’s debate, there will be a rush to anoint a “winner” and a “loser,” but the only way we can really do that is once we have data on how the debate will actually affect people’s votes. To that end, 538 partnered with Ipsos to poll the same group of likely voters both before and after the debate to see how their attitudes change. Here are some of the key findings from our pre-debate poll, which was conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.
First, we asked respondents to rate how well they thought each candidate would perform in the debate tonight on a five-point scale. On average, Trump got a score of 2.96 out of 5, and Biden got a score of 2.58 out of 5. In other words, expectations are significantly lower for Biden tonight, which could end up helping him — even a so-so performance from Biden would exceed most people’s expectations.
It looks like the reason people have such low expectations for Biden is his advanced age. We also asked respondents to grade each candidate’s physical, mental and emotional fitness on a five-point scale. On average, Biden got just a 2.3 out of 5 on physical fitness and a 2.4 out of 5 on mental fitness. Trump bested him on both of those measures, but Trump got only a 2.6 out of 5 on emotional fitness, which was lower than Biden’s score.
We also asked voters what issues would have the most impact on their vote. Fifty percent ranked inflation or increasing costs as one of their top three issues, while 37% included immigration. Voters also said Trump would do a better job handling those issues than Biden, so it will be especially important for the president to show strength on these issues tonight.
Finally, we asked voters which candidates they were considering supporting. Heading into the debate, 44.8% of voters are at least considering voting for Trump, 44.5% are at least considering voting for Biden and 18.5% are at least considering voting for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who failed to qualify for the debate. (Respondents could say they were considering multiple candidates, which is why these numbers add up to more than 100%.) We’ll ask voters the same question after the debate to see whether these numbers shift.
-538’s Nathaniel Rakich
Jun 27, 5:56 PM
Debate offers rare chance to change a rigid race
The debate between Biden and Trump marks one of the few foreseeable opportunities to change a race characterized by stagnant polls.
Literal history is in the rearview in the race, including 34 felony convictions for Trump in New York — that leaves just the debates, the party conventions and Trump’s sentencing as the only dates on the calendar that the campaigns could circle as opportunities to try to gain an edge.
“If you’re looking at the calendar for the next five months, this is one of those moments. And somebody’s going to take advantage of it,” Chip Saltsman, a GOP strategist who worked on former Vice President Mike Pence’s now-suspended presidential bid, told ABC News.
Read more here.
Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
(WASHINGTON) — As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to take the debate stage in Atlanta on Thursday night, voters across the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania spoke with ABC News about how they’re feeling during an election where they feel unhappy with both major candidates – and what they hope to hear on the debate stage.
“I’m at a point where I just can’t really, you know, have a decision because of what my choices are. You know, I’m gonna vote, but I’m just not comfortable with who I’m voting for,” Barbara Chatman told ABC News from Headmaster’s Barbershop in Atlanta. “”One, he’s just been convicted, I feel uncomfortable about that. The other one they’re saying he’s too old – I feel uncomfortable about that. I feel like we should have someone new that’s running.”
It’s a feeling Laura Ruesch, who lives in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin, shares.
“I have never felt worse about the options for presidential candidates this year. I really feel like it’s not a valid choice; I’m very upset at both parties for the candidates that they’ve put forward,” she told ABC News.
Chatman and Ruesch are what some analysts call “double-haters” – voters who feel uneasy about both Biden and Trump. A poll published Thursday from 538 and Ipsos found 21% of likely voters expressing that view.
ABC News interviewed dozens of voters across the four battleground states – where Biden beat Trump by around only 267,000 votes in total in 2020. And while some say they lean toward a candidate – with some apprehensions – many are yet to decide who they’ll vote for and are looking to the debate to help make up their minds.
“We have two people who have been there before…. [in Pennsylvania,] everybody’s across the board and they don’t feel strongly one way or another. So the debate is going to do a lot for them to, I think, lean one way or another,” Jerry Longo, a second-generation owner of Jerry’s For All Seasons, a garden center in Dunmore, Pennsylvania, told ABC News.
Stan Kowalski, a construction worker in Scranton, said that he’s concerned that Trump is headed into the debate while facing legal battles and verdicts. “I wish there wasn’t so much stuff hanging over his back going into this, but… this courtroom stuff isn’t any picnic by no means for anybody, but, I think he’s holding together pretty good, and we’ll see what happens.”
And on what concerns him about Biden, Kowalski said his age, as well as border and economic issues that Biden has grappled with.
Age is top of mind for many of the voters across all four states.
In Waukesha, Wisconsin, college student Lucas Franke says he is concerned about the ages of the two candidates.
“With candidates as old as they are, any kind of medical anything, a heart problem, a stroke for either of them could be debilitating,” Franke told ABC News.
At Cozy Nook Farm, west of Waukesha, dairy farmer Tom Oberhaus is also concerned.
“I am approaching that age myself. I don’t know if there’s anybody that 70 years old and older that says they’re as sharp and shrewd as they were when they were 50. That’s just the way life is,” he told ABC News from his farm. “Why don’t we want our sharpest people as our president is our leader of our country?”
Like many of the voters ABC News talked to, Oberhaus – who has run the farm with his wife since 1985 – agonizes over the economy.
“The rampant inflation that we’re in right now is critical. I mean, it’s it’s eating us alive. We can’t, you know, as farmers, we don’t get to set our prices and and we’re getting beat up by inflation,” he told ABC News.
And he’s not the only one.
In Scranton, Pennsylvania, Jennifer Merceau said her husband owns a masonry business, and she wants to see the economy “back to where it was.”
“Self-employed people are really struggling in this economy to make sure their customers are taken care of,” Merceau told ABC News. “I’d like to see what they’re going to do for small businesses in this country. I think that small business owners work really hard, and they’re good to their customers. And I’d like to see what can be done for them, which will in turn stimulate our economy even more,” she said of what she hopes the candidates are asked about at the debate, in addition to the border and military.
“We’re all just struggling out here, you know, we work, we all work full time, and, you know, we’re trying to take care of our kids. We need help with childcare. Like, it’s. It’s a struggle out here,” Cierra Waterhouse, also from Scranton, told ABC News.
The voters hope the economy is center stage at the debate.
“I would need to hear from the candidates that they really understand what the average person is going through, what our financial situations are,” accounting assistant Destiny Johnson told ABC News in Milwaukee.
Voters also expressed concern over immigration policy and border security, as well as America’s involvement with the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars. Polling has shown that those issues, while not top of mind for voters, have been on their minds, and Biden and Trump have grappled with these issues differently while on the trail.
Janee Johnson, who works as a waitress at Toast ‘N Jams in Muskegon, Michigan, said the focus should be on doing the “right things for America.”
“I feel like the best thing that they can say is, I am here for America, and America only. That would make me happy. That would make me trust who I’m putting in office at that point,” Johnson told ABC News.
Michael Kordecki, the owner of that restaurant, wishes he could tell the candidates to “be more positive about America, about our future, and about what we can do with or without new people coming into the country.” He added, “We have an immigration issue. I don’t think it’s that big of an issue. I think it just needs to be regulated. I think that we also have an issue with, older Americans not being well taken care of. I think that issue needs to be addressed at some point.”
Despite their distaste for the candidates, the voters told us they are planning to show up to the polls in November.
“You have to like one of them more than another, and your vote matters. So whether it’s for someone who you feel strongly about or you just feel more strongly about the other one, it’s important to get out there and vote,” said Longo, the garden center owner in Pennsylvania.
At Headmasters Barbershop in Atlanta, Chatman says she will still go out and vote this November.
“It’s sad that we only have two choices and neither choices are on the top of my list,” she said. “But at this point I have to go for someone because I am a voter. I feel like that my ancestors struggled to for me to have this right, so I refuse to allow anything to stand in the way of that. So I will be voting, just not sure who.”
ABC News’ Jacob Steinberg contributed to this report.
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(WASHINGTON) — Progressive Democrats undeniably suffered their most significant defeat of the 2024 election cycle Tuesday when Rep. Jamaal Bowman lost his New York 16th Congressional District’s Democratic primary. What it means for the movement he belongs to, however, is less clear.
Bowman’s defeat at the hands of Westchester County Executive George Latimer laid bare the nasty divisions among Democrats over support for Israel. Pro-Israel outside groups dumped nearly $15 million — an unprecedented amount of cash — into the race, fueling an avalanche of ads that knocked Bowman and promoted Latimer’s own liberal bona fides on issues like abortion.
The strategy, led by groups allied with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Democratic Majority for Israel, worked. They netted their most significant win yet in the party’s internal battles over Israel, and a new playbook was born for how to challenge other progressive lawmakers — including Rep. Cori Bush, who is facing a well-funded primary challenger in her St. Louis district this August.
However, operatives estimated that Bowman was particularly low-hanging fruit for his critics. He offered pro-Israel groups ammunition by denying that Hamas committed rape during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel (he later apologized), reports later surfaced that he had spread 9/11 conspiracy theories, and he drew controversy for pulling a fire alarm in the U.S. Capitol, vulnerabilities his compatriots lack.
“I think that this was a referendum on both his persona, his comportment, but also on his legislative record and his messaging,” said Jon Reinish, a New York Democratic strategist who worked with groups opposed to Bowman.
“I think that this is absolutely replicable,” Reinish said. “But you also can’t deny the fact that he was, in his own way, a unique case who inflicted a lot on himself here.”
Bowman, who first won his seat in 2020 by unseating a 16-term incumbent accused of losing touch with his district, entered office vowing a shakeup in Washington. Along the way, he ruffled feathers.
Bowman engaged in shouting matches in Capitol hallways. He voted against Democrats’ infrastructure bill, a cornerstone of President Joe Biden’s agenda. And last year, he pulled a fire alarm in a House office building in what he called an accident but what was believed by some to be an attempt at delaying a vote — an action that earned him a censure and misdemeanor charge.
Opposition to Bowman spiked when video went viral of him saying that stories of sexual violence that took place on Oct. 7 were false “propaganda,” which compiled on ceaseless criticisms of Israel and its military operations in the Gaza Strip. Resurfaced blog posts also revealed a past in trafficking 9/11 conspiracies.
All of that culminated in a 10-figure investment by outside groups opposed to Bowman and helped usher Latimer — a local politician with longstanding support — into the primary.
“[V]oters want members of Congress who are going to bring people together to get things done, not people who are divisive. And there is no question that Jamaal Bowman emerged as an extraordinarily divisive figure, not only on Israel issues, but on other issues as well,” said DMFI President Mark Mellman.
The push against Bowman is just the latest salvo in what is anticipated to be a concerted outside effort to defeat lawmakers who advocate for less support for Israel, with Bush widely anticipated to be the next target.
Like Bowman, Bush is a junior House member and staunch progressive. Where Bowman faced legal headwinds over the fire alarm, Bush is facing a Justice Department probe over her use of campaign funds. House Democratic leaders haven’t signaled that they’ll campaign with Bush, just like they didn’t with Bowman. And, like Latimer, primary opponent Wesley Bell Bell holds local office as the prosecuting attorney for St. Louis County.
Seemingly chomping at the bit, DMFI Wednesday touted the results of an internal poll showing Bush virtually tied with Bell.
“You put those two things together, and if you don’t take them as a warning sign, you’re not a very capable politician,” Mellman said, referencing Bowman’s loss and DMFI’s survey. “Cori Bush has the same kind of vituperative, anti-Israel rhetoric, the same kind of anti-Israel votes, the same kind of divisive approach to politics on this issue and on broader Democratic issues.”
Liberals, meanwhile, predicted Bowman’s loss will serve as proof of concept for groups looking to boot progressives.
“They want to make sure that progressives don’t continue to grow power, speak out on Gaza, challenge the party line with Biden, and they wanted to get a head on a stick, and they did. And so, I think the warning sign is there. Will this make them double down? I think so,” added Our Revolution Executive Director Joseph Geevarghese.
Still, it’s possible that Bowman was uniquely vulnerable.
Bowman’s district is significantly more fertile ground for attacks than Bush’s; it boasts a hefty Jewish population and is plurality white. Bush’s district is more urban and about 45% Black, according to Census data.
Bowman also had some presence as a former middle school principal, but Bush rose to local prominence as an activist who played a role in the Ferguson protests after 2014 after the fatal shooting of Michael Brown.
Moreover, Latimer could prove to be what New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf called a “uniquely good candidate.”
And, operatives agreed, Bowman’s initial rape denialism sets him apart from other lawmakers who are critical of Israel’s government and operations in Gaza.
“Much of what occurred to Bowman was political suicide,” said Sheinkopf. “The rape denialism invigorated the anti-Bowmans and set the stage for the value of the kind of expenditure that was done here.”
Mellman also conceded that without Bowman’s particular weaknesses, “it would have been a much closer campaign.”
Moving forward, progressives suggested that candidates can still talk about the war in Gaza, which has left tens of thousands dead, without alienating voters.
“I think she can talk about it. I think Jamaal’s rhetoric got rather intense and turned some people off in the last two months. Loaded terms, like ‘Zionist’ and ‘settler colonial,’ and the conspiracies, I think there’s better rhetoric you can use around the issue to get your point across without being so provocative,” said one New York progressive operative.
Already, pro-Israel outside groups don’t have a perfect record. Rep. Summer Lee, a Pittsburgh-based progressive, handily fended off a well-financed primary challenger in April, though AIPAC and DMFI largely stayed out of that race.
And while progressives took Bowman’s loss as a warning sign, it also could serve as a wakeup call.
“People suggest ‘this is a mortal blow to the anti-Israel progressives within the Democratic Party.’ That does not appear to be the case. People are underselling the Working Families Party, the Democratic Socialists of America and the Justice Democrats. They’re going to redouble their efforts and organize,” Sheinkopf said.
Justice Democrats, one of the nation’s leading progressive groups, is already gearing up for Bush’s race, pushing the Democratic establishment to join it. And other progressives are pushing her to take an aggressive stance against an anticipated flood of funding for Bell.
“Cori Bush’s race is up next,” said spokesperson Usamah Andrabi. “The Democratic Party should put all of its resources behind folks like Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush because they are going to be who leads them to a victory in November.”
“The most important thing for her to do in this moment is to inoculate, and that means to really speak to voters about what is going to come down the pike. ‘You’re going to get inundated with mail and TV advertising that says that I am not fighting for you. I am not fighting for this district, and it’s going to be lies.’ I think that’s the first thing I would take away. We’ve seen their playbook now unfold,” Geevarghese added.
Bush, for her part, appears ready for a fight.
“These same extremists are coming to St. Louis,” Bush said of anti-Bowman outside groups after Tuesday’s race. “We will continue to fight for the future St. Louis deserves and show that organized people beats organized money. Because St. Louis is not for sale.”
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(WASHINGTON) — Despite the U.S. Supreme Court issuing a decision allowing emergency abortions in Idaho, many pro-abortion groups criticized Thursday’s ruling and said it was far from a win for abortion rights.
“This is not a time for applause for the way that the court has functioned,” Fatima Goss Graves, the CEO of the National Women’s Law Center, said in a briefing with reporters. “This is a crisis of the court’s making.”
“We definitely deserve better from our court,” Goss Graves said.
The decision was the first time the court weighed in on abortion since it overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago, ending federal protections for abortion rights. Since then, at least 14 states have ceased nearly all abortions and seven other states have imposed restrictions on care.
While the ruling will allow abortions to resume in cases of medical emergencies, abortion rights advocates criticized the court opinion, saying the ruling did not address the merits of the case and failed to find that patients are entitled to emergency abortion care to protect their health and lives.
“While the opinion temporarily restores the ability of doctors in Idaho to provide emergency abortions required under the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA), by dismissing Idaho’s appeal without resolving the core issues in the case, SCOTUS will only continue to put pregnant patients at unnecessary risk,” the American Civil Liberties Union said in a statement.
Advocates also argued that the decision is “the bare minimum” and the court should have been more clear in ruling that EMTALA protects abortion in emergency situations across all states.
“The fact that this case was before the Court and remains open to further litigation tells us everything we need to know about the anti-abortion movement: They would rather let pregnant people suffer life-threatening health consequences than allow them to receive stabilizing abortion care,” Destiny Lopez, the acting co-CEO of the Guttmacher Institute, said in a statement.
“This outcome does not remedy the harm that the Court’s anti-abortion justices inflicted with the Dobbs decision two years ago,” Lopez said.
Of the states restricting abortion, at least seven do not have clear exceptions for emergency care.
“The courts caused a months-long catastrophe that was completely unnecessary,” President of Planned Parenthood Alexis McGill Johnson told reporters.
“They had the opportunity to bring clarity to the chaos they caused … but they missed the mark,” McGill Johnson said.
The case now returns to the Ninth Circuit where it will be further litigated.
“The Court could have upheld this basic right, but they refused to. Instead, the conservative majority kicked the case back to a lower court, punting so that they didn’t need to weigh in before an election where attacks on abortion access are already top of mind for voters,” Reproductive Freedom for All, a pro-abortion group, said in a statement Thursday.
The Center for Reproductive Rights told reporters that the Thursday decision does not impact access to abortion in the 20 other states with restrictions or bans in effect — and a case over EMTALA could be back before the court next session.
Texas sued the U.S. government over EMTALA guidance, and the Fifth Circuit court successfully blocked the guidance.
Advocates issued warnings that echoed reactions to the court’s decision striking down an abortion pill ruling this month.
“Several justices provided a roadmap for just how they would strip pregnant people of this basic right when this case comes back to the Court,” Alexa Kolbi-Molinas, deputy director of the ACLU Reproductive Freedom Project, said in a statement.
Anti-abortion group Americans United for Life, meanwhile, called the ruling “highly fractured.”
“The Court recognized based on representations by the Biden administration that Idaho may continue to enforce its pro-life law, and the rights of pro-life doctors and nurses will be respected in all circumstances as federal law requires. The case will develop further in the lower courts and the Supreme Court seems ready, willing, and able to review the case again once an appropriate factual record based upon the Biden administration’s actual position is developed,” said Steven Aden, chief legal officer and general counsel.
Another anti-abortion group called the decision “a setback.”
“Today’s Supreme Court decision is a setback, but our fight for babies and moms continues,” National Right to Life said in a statement. “With its sound ‘life of the mother’ provision that allows pregnant women to receive emergency care, Idaho’s pro-life law is consistent with EMTALA which requires hospitals to provide stabilizing treatment to both mothers and unborn children. Under Attorney General Raul Labrador’s leadership, we are confident Idaho will eventually prevail on the merits of this case.”
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