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(NEW YORK) — After becoming the first former president to face criminal charges, Donald Trump faces another historic first next month: He could become the first former president in U.S. history to be ordered to prison when he’s sentenced in his New York hush money case.

Several experts told ABC News that the odds are against the former president serving any time behind bars before the 2024 election, after a jury in May found him guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to an effort to illegally influence the 2016 presidential election.

But it’s possible that the nature and circumstances of Trump’s alleged criminal conduct — in addition to his lack of remorse and behavior during the trial — could provide Judge Juan Merchan justification to impose a sentence that includes prison time, some experts told ABC News.

Of the 14 lawyers and law professors who spoke with ABC News, five believed a prison sentence was likely, two described the decision as a toss-up, and seven believed a prison sentence was unlikely due to a combination of the logistical challenges, a lack of precedent supporting incarceration for first-time offenders, and the political implications of such a sentence.

Regardless of the punishment, experts broadly agreed that Trump’s sentence will most likely be stayed pending his appeal — a process that could take anywhere from months to a year — meaning the former president would likely avoid serving any part of a sentence until after the 2024 election.

Ahead of the July 11 sentencing, Judge Juan Merchan faces the unprecedented question of how to punish the former president for crimes that prosecutors framed in the sharpest terms — a “subversion of democracy” and “election fraud, pure and simple” — but that were charged using the least severe class of felonies in New York.

“There is no more serious falsification of business records case that I can remember in the history of supervising and prosecuting many of these cases,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who previously served as the chief assistant district attorney in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.

Compared to judges in federal court — whose sentences are normally guided by a point system created by the United States Sentencing Commission — Merchan has fewer reference points when sentencing Trump. New York’s penal law limits prison sentences for Class-E felonies to four years, and probation officials will prepare a report with a recommendation for Trump’s sentence, which Merchan can consider when weighing the nature and circumstances of the crime along with Trump’s history and character.

“On behalf of New Yorkers — that’s who Judge Merchan is speaking up for — how big a breach of the social trust was this compared to all the other crimes that he and other judges sentence every day?” said Justin Levitt, a constitutional law professor at Loyola Law School. “There is literally no case that has been remotely similar to the criminal prosecution conviction of a former chief executive of the country.”

Here are six questions that will likely shape how the judge forms his decision:

How have similar defendants been sentenced?

While the Manhattan district attorney frequently charges defendants with falsifying business records — there were 437 such charges by the office in the decade before Trump’s indictment, according to a court filing last year — Merchan might struggle to find relevant precedent in those cases, experts said.

Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg brought his case using a novel legal theory that Trump falsified business records to conceal a violation of a New York election law that prohibits conspiracies to influence an election using unlawful means.

“This isn’t a run-of-the-mill falsifying business records case,” former Manhattan assistant district attorney Jeremy Saland told ABC News.

While first-time offenders convicted of falsifying business records normally avoid prison time, similar cases related to campaign contributions or public officials suggest incarceration is a possibility.

Richard Brega, a New York bus mogul who pleaded guilty to one count of falsifying business records related to illegal campaign contributions, received a one-year prison sentence in 2018. Former New York Comptroller Alan Hevesi, who pleaded guilty to receiving a reward for official misconduct — a class-E felony — related to a pay-to-play scheme involving New York’s pension fund, was sentenced in 2011 to one-to-four years in prison.

“Ultimately, this is a case that stands alone, and that is going to be extremely difficult for the judge to come up with a sentence that is fair and appropriate,” said Robert Mintz, a former federal prosecutor.

What factors could lessen Trump’s sentence?

Trump’s status as a first-time offender, the nonviolent nature of his crime, his advanced age, and a lack of a flight risk are mitigating factors that could lighten his sentence, according to Pace University School of Law professor Bennett L. Gershman.

However, Gershman cautioned that while Trump might be 78 years old at the time of his sentencing, many white-collar defendants receive prison time in spite of their advanced age.

“I would be shocked if he didn’t impose some time in jail,” Gershman said. “Merchan imposes tough sentences. He’s a tough judge from his history on the bench.”

Has Trump shown remorse?

Trump’s lack of remorse or admission of wrongdoing could work against the former president at sentencing, where Merchan can consider Trump’s overall history and character. Trump has also frequently targeted Merchan with personal attacks related to his daughter’s political work and compared the judge to a “tyrant” and “devil.”

Merchan also held Trump in criminal contempt ten times during the trial for knowingly making comments about witnesses and jurors in violation of the case’s limited gag order.

“I think that most judges would feel that some kind of jail time is needed to basically affirm the need for a defendant to have respect for the court,” said George Washington University professor Stephen Saltzburg.

Would a prison sentence be a deterrent?

In addition to any purported rehabilitative or retributive purpose, prison sentences are often used by judges to deter the defendant or the broader public from committing similar crimes in the future.

Some experts ABC News spoke with were skeptical that Merchan could justify a prison sentence based on individual deterrence — i.e., discouraging Trump himself from committing a similar crime again.

“It’s not necessarily clear to me that this is a situation that will arise again that could be specifically deterred,” said former federal prosecutor Jarrod Schaeffer. “Looking at Trump’s behavior and his track record, I’m not sure that the judge will hold out hope that his sentence in this case will have a strong deterrent effect on him.”

Yet the sentencing could provide an opportunity for general deterrence for the public, including other public officials, according to Jeffrey Cohen, a Boston College Law Associate professor.

“When you have a high-profile defendant, you want your punishment to discourage other people from doing this sort of thing,” Cohen noted.

What other options does Merchan have for Trump’s sentence?

Merchan could opt to sentence Trump to a period of probation or a conditional discharge.

If sentenced to probation, Trump would have to report to a probation officer and meet certain conditions, including potential travel restrictions or curfews that could be enforced with the use of an ankle monitor, according to former federal prosecutor Michael Zweiback. However, enforcing the terms of Trump’s probation in the middle of his presidential campaign could be challenging, according to New York Law School professor Anna Cominsky.

“The more restrictions on someone’s movement sometimes makes it more difficult for them to live their lives and do their jobs,” Cominsky said. “So when it comes to Trump, part of his job is right now campaigning and traveling around the country. He has to be able to do that.”

Trump alternatively could be sentenced to a conditional discharge where Judge Merchan himself would oversee that Trump meets the conditions of his release, rather than a probation officer.

The conditions of Trump’s release could include paying a fine, performing community service, and avoiding future arrests.

“He could be creative here, and I think that’s sort of the wildcard, is that the judge does have a lot of discretion in fashioning a sentence,” said former federal prosecutor Joshua Naftalis.

How would the sentence impact the election — and does it matter?

Trump’s sentencing comes just four days before the Republican National Convention, and the former president faces the possibility of serving part of his sentence while running for the presidency.

The political undercurrent adds another layer of complexity to the already thorny sentencing, as the former president continues to allege without evidence that the prosecution against him was politically motivated.

While Merchan could opt to disregard the political implications of the sentencing entirely, the broader ramifications of the sentence could play into Merchan’s decision about the most effective punishment for the former president.

“There are political issues around sentencing him to a term of incarceration just before the convention, and that’s feeding into a narrative that this prosecution was really to keep him from campaigning and keep him from regaining the office of president,” said Bader.

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(LOS ANGELES) — Pro-Palestinian protesters at Cal State Los Angeles entered a campus building on Wednesday, taking over the ground floor, as “a small number” of administrators still inside were asked to shelter in place, campus officials said.

“I can confirm that there are still a small number of administrators in the building,” said Erik Frost Hollins, a school spokesperson. “We are working through options to bring this fluid situation to the best resolution possible.”

The offices in the Student Services Building include much of the campus administration, along with the eighth-floor office of President Berenecea Johnson Eanes. It was not immediately clear which staff members were sheltering in place in the building’s upper floors.

“We have asked building employees to shelter in place and other employees have been asked to leave the campus,” Frost Hollins said.

Protesters had moved chairs and other objects in front of the doors at the building, barricading the entrance, according to video from ABC News’ Los Angeles station KABC-TV. The building appeared to have been marked with pro-Palestinian graffiti.

All classes and operations on the main campus were to be held remotely until further notice, the university said in an alert on its website.

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(WASHINGTON) — Eight climate protesters were arrested on Wednesday after being tackled on the field during the Congressional Baseball Game, U.S. Capitol Police said in a statement.

The self-described “youth-led group,” Climate Defiance, took credit for the protest and shared videos on X of protesters rushing the field, calling the “Chevron-sponsored” game “unconscionable.”

During the second inning, over half a dozen protesters hopped the fence to the field, wearing shirts stating, “END FOSSIL FUELS.”

Chants from the crowd of “USA!” drowned out the protesters.

“The eight people are being charged with federal charges – Interference with a Member of the U.S. Capitol Police,” authorities said in a statement.

The group was protesting outside of the stadium prior to the game’s start and had been vocal for days leading up to the game about the planned protest.

“Before the charity game, we were aware that some people planned to possibly protest. This was discussed during our planning meetings and put in our comprehensive action plan to ensure we had plenty of resources to swiftly respond,” Capitol police said in a statement on X.

Before the first pitch of the game had even been thrown, shouts rang out in the stands as roughly a dozen pro-Palestinian protesters began a demonstration opposing the U.S. government’s support of Israel, which is more than eight months into the war with Hamas in Gaza.

The demonstration, which began during the colors presentation, continued into the singing of the national anthem, prompting loud counter-chants of “USA” that originated in the Republican fan section before spreading throughout the stadium.

As they unfurled posters and Palestinian flags, security promptly removed the protesters, several of whom were clad in keffiyehs, the traditional Palestinian scarves that have become icons of the movement.

In an interview given through an exterior fence of the stadium, one of the protesters spoke with ABC News, stating, “We’re here to shame Congress for participating and sponsoring and funding a genocide.”

The Congressional Baseball Game is a bipartisan tradition dating back to 1909, with proceeds supporting D.C.-area charities. The annual game has been under threat before. In 2017, at a practice for Republican lawmakers, then-House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., and Capitol Police officer Crystal Griner were shot.

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(OCALA, Fla.) — The Marion County Sheriff’s Office released video of detectives questioning Susan Lorincz, the Florida woman charged in the fatal shooting of Ajike “AJ” Owens, a Black mother of four who lived across the street from Lorincz.

The video, released on Monday, showed the moment Lorincz, who is white, was arrested after an almost two-hour long interrogation four days after the fatal incident. Following the shooting, Lorincz told detectives she was acting in self-defense when she shot Owens, who was with her 10-year-old son, through the closed door of Lorincz’s home on June 2, 2023, according to the video.

“She was saying ‘I’m going to kill you,'” Lorincz told detectives about Owens during the interrogation.

“There was banging. There was yelling. I thought she was going to just break down the door,” she said. “My heart was pounding and I thought, ‘she’s really going to kill me.'”

According to detectives, no other witnesses heard Owens shouting threats during the dispute. “No one that we’ve interviewed so far has made any statements about her saying that she wanted to kill you,” one of the detectives told Lorincz.

Lorincz was charged with first-degree manslaughter in Owens’ death and a trial is expected to begin on August 12. She pleaded not guilty and remains in custody.

On the night of the incident, Lorincz called 911 at 8:54 pm to report Owens’ kids trespassing on her property in Ocala, Florida, according to records obtained by detectives. After approximately five minutes on the phone, the 911 dispatcher informed Lorincz that deputies were on their way.

At 9:01 pm, less than two minutes after hanging up with 911 dispatchers, Lorincz called again to say she had shot Owens, according to police records.

Police said Owens had gone to Lorincz’s home to speak with her about the dispute involving Owens’ children playing near her home.

Detectives later questioned Lorincz about her online search history, according to the video of the interrogation, asking her if she’d looked up self-defense laws in Florida. She told detectives she’d done so earlier that day after seeing an article on Facebook.

“I know what you’re thinking. Did I look up the law so that I could do something? No,” Lorincz told detectives in the video.

During the interrogation, Lorincz told detectives she’d only communicated with Owens about two or three times since the mother of four moved across the street and repeatedly denied ever using racial slurs towards Owens and her children on the night of the shooting.

Body camera footage released last July by the Marion County Sheriff’s Office showed seven incidents between Feb. 25, 2022, and April 25, 2023, in which Lorincz called sheriff’s deputies to complain about neighborhood children, including Owens’ children, playing near her home.

The body camera videos show a child alleging in comments to sheriff’s deputies that Lorincz called the children in the neighborhood racial slurs and another who accused Lorincz of being “racist.” Lorincz admitted to calling children in the neighborhood racial slurs and other derogatory terms in the past, according to a police report.

“I feel that there was a level of fear,” one of the detectives told Lorincz about the night of the shooting. “But from everything I’ve seen, it doesn’t rise to the level for you to justify shooting through a closed door with a firearm, and I think you know that wasn’t reasonable.”

“But there were times I called and deputies never showed up,” Lorincz responded. The detective responded by saying, “it was two minutes” and she said, “to me, it wasn’t two minutes.”

“I’m not taking away how you were treated,” the detective told Lorincz. “But those are children nonetheless, and now they don’t have a mother to go home to and I think you know what you did was wrong and I think you know there were already deputies on the way.”

Lorincz initially refused arrest after detectives brought in a Marion County deputy to transport her to jail, the video showed. After repeated attempts to persuade her to cooperate, she told detectives, “I don’t care. Kill me,” the video shows.

Before Lorincz was arrested, detectives gave her an opportunity to write a letter to Owens’ children, according to the video.

“I am so sorry for your loss. I never meant to kill your mother. I was terrified your mom was going to kill me. I shot out of fear,” Lorincz wrote, according to detectives in the video.

Attorneys for Lorincz and Owens’ family did not immediately respond to ABC News’ requests for comment.

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(FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla.) — Parts of southern Florida continued to get inundated with heavy rainfall Wednesday, with Gov. Ron DeSantis declaring a state of emergency tonight for several counties, including Broward, Collier, Lee, Miami-Dade and Sarasota.

The National Weather Service in Miami said Wednesday evening that portions of Broward and Miami-Dade counties — including Hallandale and Hollywood — are continuing to see “life-threatening flooding” impacting homes, businesses and roads.

Fort Lauderdale Mayor Dean Trantalis had previously declared a state of emergency due to “ongoing heavy rainfall” that has flooded major roadways.

“Our emergency management staff is actively monitoring the situation and mobilizing resources across the City,” Trantalis said on social media.

Trantalis said high-water vehicles have been deployed throughout the city to respond as needed, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission will be sending boats and buggies, but urged people to stay off the roads if possible.

Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava had also declared a state of emergency due to the weather.

“As our departments work to keep residents and business[es] safe, this is a necessary step to protect the health, safety, and welfare of our entire community,” she said.

Up to seven inches of rain had already fallen across Broward and Miami-Dade counties by Wednesday afternoon, with several more inches expected to fall.

Rainfall rates in the Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood area reached four inches per hour Wednesday afternoon. Sarasota also saw a rainfall rate of nearly four inches per hour.

More than 10 inches of rain had already fallen across Broward and Miami-Dade counties on Wednesday, with several more inches expected to fall.

Rainfall rates in the Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood area reached six inches per hour Wednesday afternoon. Sarasota also saw a rainfall rate of nearly four inches per hour.

A widespread six to 10 inches of rain had already fallen from Sarasota to Miami over the past few days as the region continued to get drenched on Wednesday. Sarasota saw record rainfall Tuesday; more than half a foot fell, most in just a few hours, causing significant flash flooding on streets.

The flood watch continues for southern Florida through Friday evening, with rain totals potentially reaching potentially 15 to 20 inches.

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