Trump tariff formula misrepresents global trade economics, experts say

Trump tariff formula misrepresents global trade economics, experts say
Trump tariff formula misrepresents global trade economics, experts say
Spencer Platt/Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — When President Donald Trump announced his controversial tariffs on virtually every trading partner in the world, he repeatedly called them “reciprocal” — a response, he said, to those nations that had hit the U.S. with tariffs and hurt the American economy.

But Trump’s claim is misleading not only because some of the nations hit with tariffs haven’t levied any against the U.S., but also because the math apparently used by the administration to come up the tariffs doesn’t hold up, according to several economic experts.

The White House’s list of tariffs issued against each location includes different tariff rates. In announcing the tariffs at the Rose Garden on Wednesday, Trump claimed the numbers were calculated based on “the combined rate of all their tariffs, non-monetary barriers and other forms of cheating.” Trump added that he was being “kind,” and divided that number in half and called it a “discount.”

The calculations for almost all of the tariffs was determined by dividing trade deficit of each nation with the value of its imports, according to economic experts’ analysis. That number was then divided in half for Trump’s “discount” for the final tariff percentage, experts said.

“Before yesterday, 99% of trade economists had never seen a formula like this before,” Oren Ziv, an assistant professor of economics at Michigan State University, told ABC News Friday.

Several economic experts and journalists blasted the formula soon after the speech, including James Surowiecki, a financial news journalist and author, who explained it in a post on X.

“So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is,” he said in his post.

The White House later put out an explanation of its calculations that said it was using the trade deficit and import figures.

“This calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing. Tariffs work through direct reductions of imports,” the White House said in a statement.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News on Thursday about the administration’s thinking behind their policy.

“So what happened was that the U.S. Trade Representative looked at where the trade deficits were and adjusted the tariffs in order to respond to the national emergency that I think we all agree about,” he said.

Ziv said this logic does not fit with any modern definition of trade deficits.

“When economists study trade deficiency, they don’t find any evidence for this rationale,” he said.

Ziv noted that trade deficits are more related to the markets rather than exports and imports and manufacturing.

Ziv said the formula is not very likely to yield the results that the administration is seeking.

“Since World War II, most industrial countries have followed a consistent set of rules of trade policies. Essentially, they learned that trade wars don’t help anyone,” he said.

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16 state attorneys general sue Trump administration over NIH grant terminations

16 state attorneys general sue Trump administration over NIH grant terminations
16 state attorneys general sue Trump administration over NIH grant terminations
Scott J. Ferrell/Congressional Quarterly/Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — Sixteen state attorneys general filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration on Friday over its cancellation of research grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

The suit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts, argues the cancellation of the grants is “unlawful” and the attorneys general “seek relief for the unreasonable and intentional delays currently plaguing the grant-application process.”

The defendants named in the suit include the NIH, almost all of the NIH’s 27 institutes and centers, NIH director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, the Department of Health and Human Services and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The NIH told ABC News it does not comment on pending litigation. The HHS did not immediately reply to ABC News’ request for comment.

“Once again, the Trump administration is putting politics before public health and risking lives and livelihoods in the process,” New York Attorney General Letitia James, one of plaintiffs in the lawsuit, said in a statement. “Millions of Americans depend on our nation’s research institutions for treatments and cures to the diseases that devastate families every day.”

“The decision to cut these funds is an attack on science, public health, and medical innovation — and I won’t stand for it. We are suing to restore these critical funds because the people of New York, and the entire nation, deserve better,” the statement continued.

Over the past several weeks, active research grants related to studies involving LGBTQ+ issues, gender identity and diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) have been canceled at the NIH because they allegedly do not serve the “priorities” of President Donald Trump’s administration.

As of late March, more than 900 grants worth millions of dollars have been terminated, an NIH official with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named, told ABC News.

In previous termination letters, viewed by ABC News, they state that, “Research programs based on gender identity are often unscientific, have little identifiable return on investment, and do nothing to enhance the health of many Americans. Many such studies ignore, rather than seriously examine, biological realities. It is the policy of NIH not to prioritize these research programs.”

“The premise…is incompatible with agency priorities, and no modification of the project could align the project with agency priorities,” the letters continue.

The plaintiffs argue that the terminations, “if left unchecked,” could cause “direct, immediate, significant, and irreparable harm to the plaintiffs and their public research institutions. “

The attorneys general are seeking a preliminary and permanent injunction asking the defendants to review delayed applications and barring them from carrying out terminations of grants.

Earlier this week, researchers who had millions of dollars’ worth of grants terminated by the NIH sued the agency, the HHS, Bhattacharya and Kennedy in the hopes of stopping any further research cancellations.

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Adversaries attempting to recruit laid-off government workers as spies: Intelligence

Adversaries attempting to recruit laid-off government workers as spies: Intelligence
Adversaries attempting to recruit laid-off government workers as spies: Intelligence
Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — Foreign adversaries including Russia and China are targeting government workers who have been laid off amid the Trump administration’s attempt to downsize to recruit as spies, according to new intelligence.

“New intelligence indicates agents from China, Russia, and other countries have set their sights on recently fired probationary workers, or those with security clearances, hoping to obtain valuable information about U.S. critical infrastructure or national security interests,” according to intelligence distributed by the U.S. Coast Guard to its workforce.

“These foreign intelligence officers actively search LinkedIn, TikTok, Reddit, and Chinese social media site Xiaohongshu — known as RedNote — for potential sources,” it added. “In at least one instance, a foreign agent was instructed to create a company profile on LinkedIn, post a job listing, and actively track federal employees who indicated they were ‘open for work.'”

The Coast Guard did not develop the intelligence but rather distributed it as a warning to Coast Guard officials around the world.

“Posting about your frustration, status as a recently fired employee, or any other OPSEC sensitive information could make you a target,” the notice said. “Our adversaries have successfully preyed on upset and disgruntled government workers during past furloughs.”

Military members can be attractive targets, according to the intelligence, because of the information they may have access to.

The notice comes as two active-duty soldiers were recently charged with conspiring to sell classified material to China.

The Coast Guard said a telltale sign of foreign agents attempting to recruit former government officials is something that is too good to be true, noting that it probably is.

“Your contact might overly praise or focus on your skills/experience, especially if your government affiliation is known,” it said in the notice, adding that a sense for urgency might be an indicator as well.

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Students protest Education Department closure in ‘Hands Off Our Schools’ rally

Students protest Education Department closure in ‘Hands Off Our Schools’ rally
Students protest Education Department closure in ‘Hands Off Our Schools’ rally
Fatih Aktas/Anadolu via Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — Hundreds of college and high school students representing student governments from some of the largest schools in the Washington, D.C., area will rally outside the Department of Education on Friday to oppose the administration’s gutting of the agency.

The “Hands Off Our Schools” rally is expected to turn out over 500 students, according to a spokesperson, who added that the rally has been working to increase its permit size to accommodate north of 1,000 participants.

The demonstration is organized by the student governments representing over 130,000 students at several colleges in the region, including Georgetown University, American University and Howard University, as well as along the Interstate 95 corridor up to Temple University, according to the organizers.

The coalition is a “historic alliance” standing against the “assault on education,” including campus free speech and student financial aid programs, according to a release by organizers.

It has a list of four demands for congressional leaders: preserve and strengthen the department; ensure all students are protected; oppose anti-diversity, equity and inclusion actions that restrict classroom autonomy; and reject the targeting of individual students and academics for expressing their political views.

“The recent executive orders undermine the bedrock of our nation and limit opportunities for children of all backgrounds to learn and achieve their full potential,” the organizers wrote in a statement. “By making educational spaces more restrictive and unwelcoming, these policies are set to leave lasting, harmful impacts on our generation and those who follow.”

President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing Education Secretary Linda McMahon to abolish the department and return education control to the states. The department has already let go of nearly half its workforce to start downsizing the agency.

Critics say college students will especially be affected if the president follows through with rehoming the Federal Student Aid Office’s responsibilities, such as the $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio, and terminating the federal workers who administer funds for higher education.

The rally is expected to run from 4 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. and have about a dozen speakers. Organizers are also expecting Washington, D.C., high school state board of education representatives and former progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a former principal, among the list of speakers. Organizers said they have reached out to additional lawmakers and are working to confirm the final list of speakers.

The event follows about a month’s worth of Friday demonstrations taking place at the department, including an “ED Matters” rally, “study-ins” and “clap-outs” for terminated federal workers.

More recently, lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been condemning the changes at the department. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., launched a “Save Our Schools” campaign this week against the administration’s attempt to dismantle the department. Her campaign will include investigations, oversight, community engagement and lawsuits, according to the senator.

“The federal government has invested in our public schools,” Warren said in an exclusive interview with ABC News. “Taking that away from our kids so that a handful of billionaires can be even richer is just plain ugly, and I will fight it with everything I’ve got.”

Meanwhile, McMahon shocked about a dozen House Democrats on Wednesday when she crashed their press conference outside the department after she met with them in a closed-door meeting at the agency.

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Fed Chair Powell says he expects Trump’s tariffs will hike inflation and slow growth

Fed Chair Powell says he expects Trump’s tariffs will hike inflation and slow growth
Fed Chair Powell says he expects Trump’s tariffs will hike inflation and slow growth
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday he expects President Donald Trump’s tariff policy will hike prices and slow economic growth, while noting that key indicators “still show a solid economy.”

Policy changes implemented by the White House have contributed to a “highly uncertain outlook,” Powell said, making the remarks as stocks plummeted amid an escalating global trade war.

Despite the murky outlook, Powell said Trump’s tariffs would likely increase consumer prices.

“While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it’s also possible the effects will be more persistent,” Powell told the audience at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing conference in Washington, D.C.

Minutes before Powell was set to speak, Trump sharply criticized the Fed chair, calling on him to reduce interest rates.

“This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Trump also claimed without evidence that political considerations have played a role in Powell’s decision-making on interest-rate policy.

On Friday, Powell declined to directly respond to Trump. Still, Powell strongly rebuked any concern about his political independence.

“I don’t respond to political remarks,” Powell said, adding that it would be inappropriate for the central bank to comment on U.S. trade policy.

“We try to stay as far as we can from the political process,” Powell said. “That’s what people expect from us.”

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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Beloved Catholic priest fatally shot at church in Kansas

Beloved Catholic priest fatally shot at church in Kansas
Beloved Catholic priest fatally shot at church in Kansas
Douglas Sacha/Getty Images

(SENECA, Kan.) — A man has been arrested in the murder of a Catholic priest, who was shot Thursday outside the residence at his church in the small town of Seneca, Kansas.

Gary Hermesch, 66, of Tulsa, Oklahoma, was booked on suspicion of first-degree murder.

A 911 call was made at around 3 p.m. on Thursday to report shots fired at the Saints Peter and Paul Catholic Church, according to the Kansas Bureau of Investigation.

Deputies arrived on the scene to find Father Arul Carasala, 57, outside the church residence, suffering from multiple gunshot wounds, according to the KBI.

Carasala twas transported to the Nemaha Valley Community Hospital, but died due to his injuries, according to the KBI.

Kansas Highway Patrol troopers responded and helped secure the scene. Shortly after, deputies from the Nemaha County Sheriff’s Office and officers from the Seneca Police Department took Hermesch into custody, the KBI said.

He was booked into the Nemaha County Jail but has not yet been formally charged, authorities said.

Kansas City Archbishop Joseph F. Naumann said he was “heartbroken” by the news of Carasala’s death.

“This senseless act of violence has left us grieving the loss of a beloved priest, leader, and friend. Fr. Carasala was a devoted and zealous pastor who faithfully served our Archdiocese for over twenty years, including as dean of the Nemaha-Marshall region,” Naumann said in a statement on Facebook.

“We are in shock and disbelief. Please allow our parish community to process. We will release official information as it becomes available,” Saints Peter and Paul Parish said in a statement on Facebook.

Carasala was ordained in March 1994 in his home Diocese of Cuddapah, India, according to the Archdiocese of Kansas City, Kansas.

“He ministered at Sts. Peter and Paul for nearly 14 years and also served as dean of the Nemaha-Marshall deanery. His deep faith, pastoral care, and generous spirit touched the lives of so many,” the archdiocese said in a statement on Facebook.

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Measles outbreak in Texas hits 481 cases, with 59 new infections confirmed in last 3 days

Measles outbreak in Texas hits 481 cases, with 59 new infections confirmed in last 3 days
Measles outbreak in Texas hits 481 cases, with 59 new infections confirmed in last 3 days
Antonio Perez/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

(AUSTIN, Texas) — The measles outbreak in western Texas has hit 481 cases, with 59 newly identified infections confirmed over the last three days, according to new data published Friday.

Almost all of the cases are in unvaccinated individuals or in individuals whose vaccination status is unknown, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS).

Three of the cases are among people vaccinated with one dose of the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine and seven cases are among those vaccinated with two doses.

At least 56 measles patients have been hospitalized so far, the DSHS said.

Children and teenagers between ages 5 and 17 make up the majority of cases, at 180, followed by children ages 4 and under, who account for 157 cases, according to the data.

Gaines County, which borders New Mexico, remains the epicenter of the outbreak, with 315 cases confirmed so far, DSHS data shows.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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At least 8 killed as devastating storm pounds central US with more flooding, tornado threats

At least 8 killed as devastating storm pounds central US with more flooding, tornado threats
At least 8 killed as devastating storm pounds central US with more flooding, tornado threats
ABC News

(NEW YORK) — ​​​​A four-day, once-in-a-generation weather event is pounding the middle of the U.S. with destructive tornadoes and life-threatening flooding.

Friday marks day three of the devastating storm. Here’s what you need to know:

8 deaths reported in 4 states

At least eight people have died across four states.

In Franklin County, Kentucky, a boy died after he got caught in floodwaters on Friday while walking to the school bus stop, officials said.

A second death — a local fire chief — was confirmed in Missouri. Garry Moore, 68, who was the chief of the Whitewater Fire Protection District, died in the line of duty on Wednesday, while helping a stranded motorist, according to the Missouri Highway Patrol.

Another death was confirmed in Hendricks County, Indiana, just outside of Indianapolis. A 27-year-old man was driving on Wednesday when he hit downed power lines in the road, and then he got out of his car “and came into contact with the live power lines,” the Hendricks County Sheriff’s Office said.

Another five weather-related fatalities were confirmed in Tennessee, according to state officials.

Gov. Bill Lee announced the fifth death in the state during a news conference Thursday evening, where he spoke of the “immense devastation” wrought by a powerful tornado that tore through the small city of Selmer, in the southwestern part of the state, between Memphis and Nashville.

Lee had declared a state of emergency in Tennessee, as did Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

“We are facing one of the most serious weather events we’ve had forecast,” Beshear warned on social media. “Please stay alert, take all precautions, and be prepared.”

Tornado threat

Since the outbreak began Wednesday, there have been at least 42 reported tornadoes from Arkansas to Ohio. This includes an EF-3 tornado in Selmer, Tennessee, with winds of 160 mph, and an EF-3 tornado in Lake City, Arkansas, with winds of 150 mph.

Matt Ziegler documented the moment the tornado hit Lake City.

“I’ve always heard that they sound like a train on a track, but to be honest with you, it was eerily quiet,” he told ABC News. “If you weren’t looking, you wouldn’t know that there was a major tornado just a field over from us.”

On Friday, there’s another moderate risk for severe weather — including damaging tornadoes — from northeast Texas to Little Rock, Arkansas, to southern Missouri.

On Saturday, the severe threat is labeled “enhanced,” with the potential for strong tornadoes from Louisiana to Tennessee.

“We are facing one of the most serious weather events we’ve had forecast,” Beshear warned on social media. “Please stay alert, take all precautions, and be prepared.”

Flash flooding threat

Since Wednesday, over 6 inches of rain has inundated Tennessee and over 4 inches of rain has fallen in Arkansas and Kentucky — and the threat isn’t over.

A massive flood watch on Friday stretches from Texarkana, Texas, to Little Rock to Memphis to Nashville to Louisville, Kentucky, to Indianapolis to Columbus, Ohio, to Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Arkansas is in the bull’s-eye on Friday, with much of the state bracing for up to 10 inches of rain.

Another high risk for flash flooding is in effect Saturday from Arkansas to Kentucky.

By the time the storm ends, rain totals could be well over 15 inches. Some cities may see record-high four-day rain totals.

Rivers, creeks and other waterways could also advance into major flood stage from Arkansas to Kentucky.

The system will finally move east Sunday afternoon, bringing rain to the Southeast on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

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Loomer urged Trump to remove NSA director and others across multiple agencies: Sources

Loomer urged Trump to remove NSA director and others across multiple agencies: Sources
Loomer urged Trump to remove NSA director and others across multiple agencies: Sources
Julia Beverly/Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — The director of the National Security Agency, Gen. Timothy Haugh, was among the numerous officials far-right activist Laura Loomer urged President Donald Trump to remove during her official Oval Office meeting earlier this week, citing evidence of disloyalties, multiple sources tell ABC News.

In her Oval Office meeting, Loomer presented the president with printed files of research she compiled on various government officials — not only from the NSA and National Security Council, but also from other federal agencies, including the State Department, sources said. She urged the president to take action against those she claimed were disloyal or were appointed during former President Joe Biden’s administration, the sources added.

Haugh, who is the director of the NSA and also heads U.S. Cyber Command, and his civilian deputy Wendy Noble, were both removed from their positions, according to a U.S. official. Their firings came after Loomer’s meeting with the president on Wednesday.

Loomer appeared to confirm her involvement in a post on X, writing, “NSA Director Tim Haugh and his deputy Wendy Noble have been disloyal to President Trump. That is why they have been fired … Thank you President Trump for being receptive to the vetting materials provided to you and thank you for firing these Biden holdovers.”

Trump on Thursday acknowledged that Loomer has made recommendations to him and that he sometimes listens, but claimed that she was not involved in the NSC firings following their meeting on Wednesday.

“So Laura Loomer is a very good patriot. She is a very strong person, and I saw her yesterday for a little while. She makes recommendations of things and people, and sometimes I listen to those recommendations, like I do with everybody. I listen to everybody, and then I make a decision,” Trump said.

In a separate post Thursday night, Loomer said she reported names of “disloyal people” in the NSC to Trump. On Friday, she wrote on X that she planned to release “more names of individuals who should not be in the Trump administration due to their questionable loyalty & past attacks on President Trump.”

Asked about these recent X posts from Loomer, the White House referred ABC News to Trump’s previous comments about her making recommendations.

Loomer’s involvement comes after weeks of both public and private pressure, sources said, as she raised concerns about the administration’s vetting process and the inclusion of officials she perceives as disloyal to the president.

Loomer has frequently spread misinformation. In July, she claimed in a social media post, without citing evidence, that President Joe Biden had a medical emergency after landing at Joint Base Andrews.

She had also started unsubstantiated claims about family members of Judge Juan Merchan in Trump’s New York hush money case, including that his daughter posted a fake photo of Trump in jail on social media, which the court has denied. It prompted Trump to share Loomer’s posts and spread the rumors.

Loomer accompanied Trump to several campaign events last fall — a move that prompted criticism from some Republicans at the time.

ABC News’ Justin Gomez and Molly Nagle contributed to this report.

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Man at large after allegedly gunning down estranged girlfriend and her daughter: LA sheriff

Man at large after allegedly gunning down estranged girlfriend and her daughter: LA sheriff
Man at large after allegedly gunning down estranged girlfriend and her daughter: LA sheriff
Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department

(LOS ANGELES) — A man is at large after he allegedly gunned down his estranged girlfriend and her daughter in their car, authorities said.

Donte Lamont Brown, 41, of Compton, is considered armed and dangerous, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department warned.

La’von Hall and her daughter, Ma’Laysia Martin, were stopped at a traffic light in Compton around 7 p.m. on Tuesday when Brown allegedly drove up alongside their car and shot them, according to the sheriff’s department.

After Hall was shot, she got out of the driver’s seat and fell to the ground, authorities said. Her car kept moving until it struck a pole.

Responders found Hall lying on the ground and Martin in the passenger seat, the sheriff’s department said. The mother and daughter both died at the scene, authorities said.

“Detectives have exhausted all leads” in their search for Brown and are asking for the public’s help to find him, the sheriff’s department said.

Anyone with information is urged to call the sheriff’s department at 323-890-5500 or call Crime Stoppers anonymously at 800-222-TIPS (8477).

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