Delta variant is example of evolution before our eyes

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(NEW YORK) — In a stunningly short period of time, the delta variant has changed the course of the COVID-19 pandemic by evolving to become more transmissible than previous versions of the virus.

Compared to the alpha variant, which is estimated to be 50% more transmissible than the original virus strain identified in Wuhan, China, scientists believe the delta variant, now dominant worldwide, is 40% to 60% more transmissible than alpha.

But how exactly did the delta variant evolve into the highly infectious strain that the world is now struggling to contain? Scientists have a few theories.

“This is a new virus for humans,” explained Adolfo Garcia-Sastre, director of the Global Health and Emerging Pathogens Institute of Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. “You can think about like a baby. The virus came to humans for the first time. He has not learned still everything.”

The so-called variants of concern — alpha, beta, gamma and delta — show the virus is evolving. “What we are seeing is that there are mutations that are being selected that make the virus even better at transmission,” Garcia-Sastre said. For now, scientists don’t know whether the delta variant, the most transmissible of the four, has reached its full potential for transmissibility. But the more the variant circulates, the more chances it has to evolve and reach full potential to infect humans at maximum scale.

“That’s what makes a winner if you’re a virus — more replication,” he added.

How viruses evolve to be more transmissible

“Every time the virus replicates, or makes a copy of itself, it tries to make a copy that’s identical,” Garcia-Sastre said. But like human cell replication, which can sometimes result in cells with new mutations, viruses make mistakes when they copy themselves. In most cases, those mistakes make the virus weaker. But if a single mutation makes the virus stronger and also manages to infect a new host, “it will start to propagate and start to dominate,” he said. While stronger mutations are the exception to the rule, widespread transmission of the virus means more chances for mutations that could include less common, but stronger variants.

In general, there are a few pathways by which this could happen. High community transmission, as was seen in the United Kingdom and India before the alpha and delta variants were detected there, is one pathway. Another is in people with so-called chronic infections, meaning they are infectious for longer than the typical duration of COVID-19 (not to be confused with long-haul cases), which could occur if someone has a weakened immune system or is taking immunosuppressant drugs.

“Some individuals have a persistent or a prolonged or a chronic infection. Then you have accelerated evolution inside that individual,” said Dr. Richard Lessells, an infectious disease expert at Kwazulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform in Durban, South Africa, where he researches beta, the virus variant first identified in the country.

“If that virus is then transmitted and has some evolutionary advantage in the population, it can spread from there,” Lessells said.

Nevan Krogan, a molecular biologist at the University of California, San Francisco, has collaborated on papers with Garcia-Sastre during the pandemic.

“It’s like the mother of all selections in the world. It’s the biggest experiment that’s ever happened,” Krogan said. “We’re forcing the virus to mutate, which it loves to do.”

In addition to mutations, there is another way that viruses can acquire new changes that may make them more transmissible, according to Garcia-Sastre, although it’s a pathway that’s difficult to study and not well understood. Viral recombination happens when two different parent strains of the virus enter the same cell. They then can combine and make new mixtures when they replicate.

“Someone can get, for example, an alpha and a beta together,” Garcia-Sastre explained. That could explain why the delta variant has 20 mutations, a high number for a virus that has not evolved very quickly.

Still, Garcia-Sastre cautioned of the recombination theory — “it is very difficult to prove.”

While the vaccines are holding up well against the variants in terms of protecting against hospitalization and death, the delta variant is a bit more likely to infect fully vaccinated people — so-called breakthrough cases — than past variants.

“It shows the possible beginning of a trajectory and that’s what worries me,” Aris Katzourakis, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Oxford, told Science magazine in August.
Changes to the virus’s spike protein could make it more transmissible

All four variants of concern have mutations in the virus’s spike protein, the protein that protrudes from the surface and makes it look like it’s wearing a crown.

“The thing that is happening with all of these variants is that they bind better to the receptor,” Garcia-Sastre said. “It finds the cells faster because it binds better to the receptor. If the virus has acquired the ability to bind better, then it has a better chance to start infections.”

While alpha, beta, gamma and delta all have mutations on their spike proteins, they are all different mutations, Garcia-Sastre explained. “That’s what’s interesting. They gain a better ability to process the spike and then a better ability to enter and replicate.”

Beyond spike

“Everyone is focused on spike. Yes, spike is playing a role, no question about it, but there are other mutations that could be equally as important as spike,” said Krogan.

Krogan’s research, which has not yet been published in a scientific journal, suggests that once the alpha variant gets inside a cell, it suppresses the immune response compared to other variants. A suppressed immune response allows the virus to replicate more, resulting in increased transmissibility and ultimately increased mortality, he explained.

It could also explain why the alpha variant spreads so rapidly. Now Krogan’s team is doing tests on the delta variant to see if it has similar immune response suppression causing it to be even more transmissible than the alpha variant. “We are investigating if a similar mechanism exists with delta and other variants of concern.”

Importantly, as far as scientists can tell, the alpha variant did not evolve into the delta variant. Instead, the two variants developed independently of one another in countries where high community transmission was occurring.

“The alpha variant came from England and the delta variant came from India, it just kind of got to the same place,” Krogan said. “Different mutations could have the same results.”

A glimmer of hope

As vaccinations ramp up in wealthier and well-connected countries, it puts selection pressure on the virus to mutate so it’s able to continue to infect hosts. The only way out is to vaccinate faster or adapt vaccinations to beat out newer versions of the virus as they crop up.

“We’re in this battle with the virus,” Krogan said. “Are we going to use the tools we have right now? Or will those tools become obsolete very quickly?”

Garcia-Sastre struck a more optimistic note on the role of vaccines.

“If you can bring this virus from killing 5 million per year to 500,000 per year, this virus will have the same consequences as an influenza,” Garcia-Sastre said of the power of vaccinations. “If we can reduce the mortality of this virus 10 times by vaccination, the problem is still is there, but now it’s a different problem.”

While having dueling infectious disease threats of the flu and COVID-19 each year would certainly burden the health care system, it would be a significant improvement over the overwhelming crisis that many countries have faced over the past 18 months. “We are not going to be completely able to prevent death — that’s clear — but if we can reduce it at least 20 times, then I think we can say that the pandemic is over,” Garcia-Sastre said.

In his mind, the goal was never getting to COVID zero. “It was quite clear for me that it was going to be very difficult to eradicate this virus,” he said. “But we can make it manageable. Then it will be a nuisance. It’s unfortunate for the people who get severe disease — the same thing as with flu — but at least it is not impacting all the sectors of the society like it is right now.”

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Biden’s job approval drops to 44% amid broad criticism on Afghanistan: POLL

Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz

(NEW YORK) — President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has fallen underwater in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll amid broad disapproval of his handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, including a share of blame on Biden for conditions leading to last week’s devastating Kabul airport attack.

Overall, in a sad coda to the nearly 20-year, $2 trillion effort, just 36% of Americans say the war was worth fighting. There was 77% support for the United States withdrawing; the sticking point is how Biden handled it: 60% disapprove.

Slammed by the crisis, his overall job approval rating in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, is down to 44%, with 51% disapproving – down 6 percentage points in approval and up 9 in disapproval since late June. Intensity has moved decidedly negative: Many more now strongly disapprove, 42%, than strongly approve, 25%.

See PDF for full results, charts and tables.

A substantial 44% think the withdrawal left the United States less safe from terrorism, while only 8% think the country is safer as a result. (The rest see no difference.) One factor: nearly half, 46%, lack confidence that the United States can identify and keep out possible terrorists in the ranks of Afghan refugees.

Still, another result marks a humanitarian impulse despite that security concern: Sixty-eight percent support the United States taking in Afghan refugees after they’ve been screened for security, versus 27% opposed. That’s far more support than Americans expressed for accepting Syrian and other Mideast refugees in 2015, 43%.

Biden and blame

Just 26% of the public both favors the withdrawal of U.S. forces and approves of how Biden handled it. Sixty-nine percent instead express criticism: 52% who support withdrawing but disapprove of how Biden handled it and 17% who oppose having withdrawn.

Another measure simply asks if Americans approve or disapprove of how Biden has handled the situation in Afghanistan. On this, 30% approve, with, as noted, 60% disapproving.

Further, 53% say his handling of the withdrawal bears some blame for the suicide bombing attack that killed 13 U.S. service members and more than 170 Afghans last week — a great deal of blame, 38%, and a good amount, 15%.

Approval

Biden came into office with 67% approval for his handling of the transition, but that quickly subsided to 52% job approval in April, held roughly steady at 50% in June and is down to 44% now.

In polling data since the Harry Truman administration, only two presidents have had a lower approval rating at this point in their terms: Donald Trump, at 37% in August 2017, and Gerald Ford, also 37%, in March 1975.

There are some dramatic gaps in Biden’s overall approval — 18 points higher among women than men (53% to 35%), 23 points higher among members of racial and ethnic minority groups than whites (59% versus 36%), 24 points higher among adults with a post-graduate degree versus those without a college degree (63% versus 39%) and 28 points higher among urban residents versus those in rural areas (52% versus 24%; it’s 43% in the suburbs).

In shifts since June, Biden’s approval is down especially among men (down 10 points), urban residents (down 10), independents (down 9), Democrats (down 8) and slightly among whites (down 6). It’s essentially unchanged among women, suburban residents, Republicans and racial or ethnic minorities.

The drop among men reflects their much higher likelihood of placing some blame for the Aug. 26 airport bombing on Biden’s handling of the withdrawal: Sixty-two percent of men hold this view, compared with 45% of women.

Partisans

Political differences are very sharp. Biden has just 8% overall approval from Republicans, and 36% from independents, compared with 86% among Democrats. It’s 13% among conservatives, 53% from moderates and 69% among liberals.

The president’s rating drops especially steeply among Democrats when it comes specifically to his handling of the situation in Afghanistan. Here, he gets 56% approval within his own party, 30 points lower than for his job performance overall.

Partisan differences subside on another measure: Majorities across the political spectrum support accepting screened Afghan refugees — 79% of Democrats, 71% of independents and, fewer, but still 56% of Republicans. Results are similar by ideology, with accepting refugees backed by 80% of liberals, 77% of moderates and 58% of conservatives. Support is lowest, albeit still a majority, among the least-educated adults — 54% among those who haven’t gone beyond high school.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Aug. 29-Sept. 1, 2021, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 30-24-36%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

Copyright © 2021, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

COVID-19 live updates: Two-dose vaccine ‘appears to be enough,’ FDA adviser says

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(NEW YORK) — The United States is facing a COVID-19 surge this summer as the more contagious delta variant spreads.

More than 643,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 while over 4.5 million people have died from the disease worldwide, according to real-time data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

Just 61.7% of Americans ages 12 and up are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Here’s how the news is developing Friday. All times Eastern:

Sep 03, 8:46 am
EU to return millions of J&J doses it imported from Africa

The European Union will be returning some 20 million doses of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine that were imported from a plant in South Africa, and the shots filled and finished there will no longer leave the African continent.

African Union special envoy Strive Masiyiwa, who heads the regional bloc’s COVID-19 Vaccine Acquisition Task Team, told reporters Thursday that the decision was made at a meeting last week between South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Johnson & Johnson’s South African partner, Aspen Pharmacare, has a contract to import the drug substance for the one-dose vaccine from the American pharmaceutical giant and then package them — the so-called fill-and-finish process — at its facility in Port Elizabeth, South Africa.

“All the vaccines produced at Aspen will stay in Africa and will be distributed to Africa,” Masiyiwa said at a press conference Thursday.

The decision came amid criticism of the arrangement, with the World Health Organisation’s director-general, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who is Ethiopian, saying last month that he was “stunned” that vaccines will be shipped from Africa to Europe. Just 3% of people in Africa, the world’s second-largest, second-most populous continent, are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. In comparison, 57% of people are fully vaccinated in the European Union and 52% in the United States, according to the WHO.

Sep 03, 3:33 am
Nearly 300 children currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in Texas

Nearly 300 children are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in Texas, state data shows.

According to the Texas Department of State Health Services’ online COVID-19 dashboard, which was last updated on Thursday afternoon, there are 282 pediatric patients in hospitals across the Lone Star State.

The data also shows there are 81 staffed pediatric intensive care unit beds available in all of Texas.

Sep 03, 3:19 am
2-dose vaccine ‘appears to be enough,’ FDA adviser says

Dr. Paul Offit, a member of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee, said a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine “appears to be enough” to curb infection, rather than adding a booster shot.

“You look at states in the United States that have high immunization rates with a two-dose vaccine, it appears the two doses appears to be enough to be able to control this infection,” Offit, who is also the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, told ABC News on Thursday night. “I think the critical issue here is not going to be boosting the vaccinated. I think if we really want to get on top of this pandemic, it’s going to be about vaccinating the unvaccinated.”

The FDA’s vaccine advisory committee is set to hold a key meeting on COVID-19 vaccine booster shots on Sept. 17, just three days before the Biden administration plans to begin offering the shots to Americans.

“If the companies or the FDA can make a case that there has been an erosion in protection against severe critical disease and that that erosion in protection against severe disease would be mediated or eliminated by a third dose, then we could move forward,” Offit said. “But to date, we really need to see those data to be able to make that decision.”

Sep 02, 7:02 pm
Pediatric hospitalizations nearly 4 times higher in states with low vaccination: CDC

Two studies to be published Friday found fewer pediatric hospitalizations among children and communities with higher vaccination rates, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

In one study, national data from August showed that children were nearly four times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 in the states with the lowest vaccination rates when compared to states with the highest rates — proof that “cocooning” children with vaccinated people keeps them safe, Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at a White House briefing Thursday.

The second study, which looked at hospitalizations rates in 12- to 17-year-olds across 14 states during July, found that adolescents who were unvaccinated were 10 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than their fully vaccinated peers, Walensky said.

“Both studies, one thing is clear: cases, emergency room visits and hospitalizations are much lower among children and communities with higher vaccination rates,” Walensky said. “We must come together to ensure that our children, indeed, our future, remain safe and healthy during this time.”

Sep 02, 4:11 pm
8 Florida school districts refuse to reverse mask mandates

Eight school districts in Florida told the state’s education commissioner that they would not reverse their mask requirements for students, clearing the way for the state to retaliate by withholding the salaries of school board members.

The eight districts — Duval, Hillsborough, Indian River, Leon, Miami-Dade, Orange, Palm Beach and Sarasota — each wrote a letter to Commissioner Richard Corcoran Wednesday saying they believed they were following state law and had no plans to stop requiring face coverings for students.

Corcoran had given each district until 5 p.m. Wednesday to reverse their mandates, threatening to recommend to the state education board that it withhold the salaries of board members if they did not change course.

The state education department announced Monday it would take such action against board members in Alachua and Broward counties over their school mask mandates.

On Friday, a Florida judge ruled that school boards can enact student mask mandates and ordered the state education department to stop enforcing a state rule requiring districts to allow parents to opt-out.

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Texas abortion providers say they’ve been forced to turn away patients under new law

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(HOUSTON) — A day after the nation’s most restrictive anti-abortion law went into effect, doctors and advocates reported a steep decline in abortions across Texas.

Houston provider Dr. Bhavik Kumar said he normally performs between 20 to 30 abortions a day. Since the new law, he said he’s only seen six patients — and was forced to turn half of them away.

“Just yesterday I saw somebody who thought she was earlier in the pregnancy, but once she got here and had her ultrasound, found out she was much further along,” said Kumar, who works out of a Planned Parenthood. “She was crying and we began to explore options and think through the logistics of if she would be able to go out of state for the care that she needed.”

The new law bans physicians from providing abortions “if the physician detects a fetal heartbeat” including embryonic cardiac activity, which can be as early as six weeks into a pregnancy, and stipulates that any private citizen can sue a person who they believe is providing an abortion or assisting someone in getting an abortion in Texas after six weeks. A plaintiff could collect at least $10,000.

A 2018 study done by the National Institute of Health found that on average, women reported pregnancy awareness around five and a half weeks. As it applies to the study, this means an average pregnant woman would have a very slim margin to make a decision and appointment under the new Texas law.

Nearly 90% of women who are seeking abortions in the state are past their sixth week, abortion rights advocates in Texas told ABC News Thursday.

The Supreme Court formally refused to block the Texas abortion law Wednesday night, citing technical and procedural reasons.

In a 5-4 decision, five conservative-leaning justices voted to let the law remain in effect, without determining if it is constitutional.

For now, most women seeking abortions in Texas have been forced to do so in other states.

Rebecca Tong, who operates an abortion clinic in neighboring Oklahoma, said she’s become inundated with out-of-state calls.

“The phones have just been ridiculous,” said Tong, co-executive director of Trust Women. “About two-thirds of our call volume right now is Texas people.”

Tong said her average schedule consists of appointments for about 15 women a day. Since the law in Texas, the number has more than doubled.

“For a five to 10 minute procedure, to drive 600 miles in the middle of a pandemic,” she said. “It’s cruel.”

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Homes previously considered as less at risk of flooding face new danger due to climate change

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(NEW YORK) — Millions of Americans across the country faced devastating flooding from Hurricane Ida this week and are grappling with the risks a new reality poses to their homes.

With more humans building into nature, the fragile interface between weather extremes and the comfort of our homes is becoming more frequent. More than ever, it’s clear that climate change is impacting everywhere we live.

Climate risk nonprofit First Street Foundation has found that 14.6 million American properties are at risk of flood. Six million of those don’t make it on Federal Emergency Management Agency standards maps.

Joe Tirone was one of hundreds in Staten Island who lost their home in Superstorm Sandy in 2012. It’s hard to imagine that where a marsh stands now, there were once several streets full of homes.

He was part of one of the biggest post-storm buyouts in history — meaning he got reimbursed for the full value of his home.

“You’re getting federal money, but it’s run by the state,” he explained. “It’s a little bit complicated, but a miracle. … No other place had done that.”

Since then, he’s led a push for more transparency, saying people need to know if a home they’re going to buy has a chance of flooding. He pointed to the ability to see a pre-owned car’s history before buying.

“Why isn’t there a Carfax for houses? And that got me on a roll where I felt that there really should be more advocacy for homeowners or buyers,” Tirone said. “As a realtor for over 20 years, I believe that we bring a lot of value to any transaction. So to me, it makes perfect sense for us to be the gatekeepers there as far as flood disclosure is concerned.”

Michael Lopes, communications director at the First Street Foundation, said homes at risk of flooding can be at inland or “very high elevations … places in the Pacific Northwest, places that people had never really thought of as being at significant flood risk.”

“The flooding we saw in Tennessee and in Kentucky was shocking to people who just never really experienced this kind of flooding before,” he said.

First Street Foundation takes a step beyond FEMA when assessing whether or not a particular property will flood. They factor in climate change.

“We’re using the 4.5 curve, kind of a middle-of-the-road curve, not the most dramatic, not the least trying to give a sense of how that risk is changing over time,” he said. “Something like heavy rainstorms are just becoming more frequent.”

FEMA says having flood insurance is crucial for flood-prone areas because most homeowners policies don’t cover it. There is a government-run flood insurance program, but it is far from perfect.

“You have middle and lower, middle-income people essentially subsidizing very, very, very wealthy people right now on the coast,” Lopes said.

That’s about to change with a government program called Risk Rating 2.0, which takes effect Oct. 1.

“We’re going to be doing a much better job of clearly identifying flood risk and we’re going to be able to price it fairly,” David Maurstad, FEMA deputy associate administrator for federal insurance and mitigation and senior executive of the flood insurance program, told ABC News. “Currently lower-value homes are paying more than they should and higher-value homes are paying less than they should and Risk Rating 2.0 equity and action changes that inequity.”

FEMA says even 1 inch of water can do $25,000 worth of damage to a home. Just because you aren’t in one of those high-risk areas doesn’t mean you can’t have a serious flood.

“Hurricane Harvey, for example … over 75% of the properties that are damaged were outside the high-risk area,” Maurstad said. “Many of them did not have the flood insurance coverage that they need[ed]. And that’s why equity and action is … going to be so valuable — because it’s going to be able to indicate to people you are at risk, regardless of whether you’re in a particular zone or not.”

Many Americans rent and don’t plan on buying their home. Lower-income neighborhoods tend to have higher burdens when it comes to climate change.

Real estate brokerage Redfin’s own research found that flooding is worse in neighborhoods that have been historically redlined, a term for areas where people are refused a loan due to financial risk. When a Black, brown or poor white town is hit by a storm, the community struggles to recover.

“Disasters contribute to widening equality gap in the United States, you know, especially when you’re looking at it from a financial perspective,” said Rob Moore, senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “Poorer people tend to become poorer in the aftermath of a disaster and more-affluent people tend to either stay the same, or in a perverse way, they actually can actually gain financially.”

Even if you don’t think you are in an area that can flood, think again.

“Where it can rain, it can flood,” Maurstad said. “Ninety-nine percent of the counties in the United States have experienced a flood loss, so folks across the nation underappreciate the flood risk that they face. They want to think it’s not going to happen to them.”

Whether you bought your home or rent one, you can find your home’s flood risk at floodfactor.com, a tool developed by First Street Foundation. Lopes said you don’t want to see anything above a 3 out of 10.

“You’re starting to get into some pretty severe risk of experiencing [flooding],” he said. “That doesn’t mean your house is going to be leveled, right, but you’re going to be experiencing some pretty heavy flooding over the next 15 or 30 years.”

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9-month-old Afghan girl dies after evacuation flight to US

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(PHILADELPHIA) — A 9-month-old Afghan girl flying on a U.S. evacuation flight to Philadelphia died Wednesday night, a Philadelphia Police Department spokesperson confirmed to ABC News.

The baby girl arrived with her family from Ramstein Air Base in Germany after they were evacuated from Afghanistan, according to Defense Department spokesperson Lt. Col. Chris Mitchell.

She is the first known case of an evacuee dying after the chaotic evacuation efforts from Kabul that brought 124,000 people to safety.

The baby suffered a medical emergency during the flight, according to Customs and Border Protection, and by the time the plane landed at 9:16 p.m., she was unresponsive, per PPD.

The aircrew flying the C-17 military transport plane requested medical assistance and priority arrival, according to Mitchell, and emergency medical personnel and a translator met the aircraft on arrival and transported her and her father to a local hospital.

The infant was pronounced dead at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia at 10:10 p.m., according to PPD.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the parents and family,” said Mitchell.

Her death is under investigation by Philadelphia police’s special victims unit because of the child’s age, while the Philadelphia medical examiner’s office will investigate the cause of death, the PPD spokesperson said.

ABC News’s Luis Martinez contributed to this report.

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Why the Texas abortion law could be in effect for ‘months at a minimum’

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(WASHINGTON) — After the U.S. Supreme Court made it official, declining to block Texas’ ban on nearly all abortions in the state, advocates for abortion providers vowed their legal battle would continue until full access to the procedure is restored.

“We will keep fighting. We are not giving up,” said lead attorney Marc Hearron, senior counsel with the Center for Reproductive Rights. “We’re evaluating all options.”

Indeed, the case against Texas law SB8 remains active at the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, and the Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling early Thursday did not directly address questions of the law’s constitutionality.

“It may well be that sooner rather than later, a judge does reach the merits, finds the law unconstitutional and restores abortion access in Texas, at least temporarily,” said Kate Shaw, constitutional law professor at Cardozo School of Law and ABC News legal contributor.

President Biden meanwhile ordered his legal team to immediately explore possible steps the federal government could take to restore abortion access in Texas. And, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi vowed to hold a vote next week codifying abortion rights in federal law.

But despite the scramble on multiple fronts, restoration of abortion rights in Texas is not expected to happen quickly, experts say.

“The law will likely be in effect for months, at a minimum,” said Mary Ziegler, an expert in the history of U.S. abortion law and professor at Florida State University College of Law.

Both sides in the dispute credit SB8’s unusual construction — delegating enforcement of the law to the populace at large – private citizens — as hamstringing intervention by federal courts.

“It’s an ingenious law,” Ziegler said. “This is exactly what its drafters intended.”

The arrangement makes it difficult to determine procedurally whom exactly abortion rights advocates are challenging, and therefore difficult for a court to determine whom to address in the dispute. Texas abortion providers named state officials and state courts in their federal case – but neither group technically enforces SB8.

“Federal courts enjoy the power to enjoin individuals tasked with enforcing laws, not the laws themselves,” the court’s conservative majority explained in its order declining to intervene.

The most likely next phase in the legal battle, experts said, may come when a Texas resident files a civil lawsuit under SB8 against someone accused of “aiding or abetting” an unlawful abortion, such as a doctor or clinic worker.

“At that point, [the defendant] will say that he can’t be held liable because the law is unconstitutional under [the Supreme Court’s 1992 precedent Planned Parenthood v. Casey] because it imposes an ‘undue burden’ on a woman’s constitutional right to obtain an abortion,” said Sarah Isgur, a former Justice Department lawyer, host of the Advisory Opinions podcast and ABC News legal contributor. “And the [defendant] will win and the law will be struck down.”

That scenario — an abortion provider getting sued, and likely winning on the merits — presents its own complications, advocates said.

“If you’re a physician … every time you apply for a license, the same question comes up on applications: have you ever had a lawsuit filed against you? Even if these frivolous lawsuits are dismissed, these physicians will have to report them for the rest of their careers,” said Amy Hagstrom Miller, CEO of Whole Women’s Health, a leading abortion provider in Texas.

The provider might also end up being stuck with a giant legal bill with no recourse if the defense is unsuccessful, Miller added.

“The question is, what is lost in the meantime?” said Shaw. “At the moment it seems as though access to the constitutionally protected right to an abortion is functionally unavailable in Texas, and even if that’s only for a short time, until a judge actually has the opportunity to enjoin the law, the stakes are constitutionally extremely high.”

Clinics across Texas on Thursday reported having to turn away women seeking abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, and in some cases, referring those who were able to afford the time and expense of travel to visit clinics in neighboring states.

“Many Texans — and disproportionately people of color and people with low incomes — will be forced to carry pregnancies to term against their will,” said Adriana Piñon, policy counsel and senior staff attorney at the ACLU of Texas. “This is especially horrific given the severe maternal mortality crisis in Texas that has impacted Black women the most.”

For women across Texas, implementation of SB8 has functionally meant suspension of longstanding constitutionally-protected rights affirmed by Supreme Court precedent in the 1973 Roe v. Wade and 1992 Planned Parenthood v. Casey decision.

However, legal scholars across the spectrum cautioned it was too soon to declare the precedents dead.

“This case has nothing to do with Roe or Casey so far,” said Isgur. “In November, the court is hearing the Dobbs case, which involves a 15-week abortion ban out of Mississippi. That case actually challenges the Casey standard—[prohibiting] what is an ‘undue burden’ [on women]–and could change abortion law in the country.”

Ziegler agreed that the precedents themselves remain substantively untouched, for now, but said the tone and approach of the court’s conservative majority in rejecting a hold on the Texas law was telling.

“The writing is on the wall,” she said.

“It’s important to underscore the court’s ruling last night was not the final word on this law,” said Shaw, “[but] long term picture with this very conservative Supreme Court is certainly not a favorable one for abortion rights.”

“The responsible course of action would have been to enjoin the Texas law while the Mississippi law was under consideration. Instead, the court’s hostility to abortion has led it to approve a law that is not only plainly unconstitutional, but a threat to the social fabric and to the rule of law,” Shaw added.

The court has not yet set a date for oral arguments in the Dobbs case but is expected to decide on the constitutionality of state bans on pre-viability abortions before the end of June 2022.

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Ida updates: Death toll rising in Northeast after catastrophic flooding

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(NEW YORK) — The remnants of Hurricane Ida dumped flooding rain, spawned tornadoes across the Northeast and caused dozens of deaths in areas where the storm landed.

So far in the Northeast, at least 45 deaths have been attributed to the storm. Overall, there have been at least 60 deaths across eight states related to Ida.

Here are the key developments:

  • 7 confirmed tornadoes in New Jersey, Pennsylvania
  • Trooper dies in Connecticut
  • Biden speaks on hurricane response
  • At least 13 dead in New York City
  • At least 23 dead in New Jersey

President Joe Biden spoke on Ida’s damage in the Northeast Thursday afternoon, citing that New York recorded more rain Wednesday “than it usually sees the entire month of September.”

“People were trapped in the subways. But the heroic men and women of the New York Fire Department rescued all of them. They were trapped,” Biden said.

He said he’s made it clear to East Coast governors that the Federal Emergency Management Agency is “on the ground” and ready to provide assistance.

New York

A flash flood emergency was declared for the first time in New York City as subway stations were turned into waterfalls and Midtown streets became rivers. The state of New York and New York City each declared states of emergency.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said Thursday morning the death toll in the Big Apple was nine. That number rose to 13 by the evening.

“We saw a horrifying storm last night. Unlike anything we’ve seen before,” de Blasio said. “Unfortunately the price paid by some New Yorkers was horrible and tragic.”

New York Police Department Commissioner Dermot Shea said at least eight deaths took place in residential homes in basements.

Most of the city’s fatalities were in Queens.

Officers responding to a flooding condition at a partially collapsed building early Thursday in the borough found two people — a 43-year-old female and a 22-year-old male — unconscious and unresponsive inside, the NYPD said. The man was pronounced dead at the scene and the woman was taken to the local hospital, where she later died. “The investigation is ongoing and the Medical Examiner will determine the cause of death. The identification of the deceased is pending family notification,” the NYPD said.

At a second flooded location in Queens, the NYPD said they found a 50-year-old man, a 48-year-old woman and a 2-year-old boy unconscious and unresponsive within the residence. They were all pronounced dead at the scene.

Also in Queens, police responded to a 911 call of a flooding condition and discovered a 48-year-old female, unconscious and unresponsive, within the residence. “The aided female was removed by EMS to Forest Hills Hospital where she was pronounced deceased,” the NYPD said.

An 86-year-old woman also died in her Queens apartment due to flooding, police said.

On Thursday afternoon, the landlord at an apartment in Flushing called 911 to say there were three bodies submerged in a flooded basement, according to the FDNY.

“FDNY members rescued hundreds of people citywide during the storm, removing occupants from trapped vehicles on flooded roadways and removing New Yorkers from subway stations,” department spokesman Frank Dwyer told ABC News.

After responding to a flooding incident in Brooklyn, the NYPD said officers found “a 66-year-old male, unresponsive and unconscious, within the residence.” He was pronounced dead at the scene.

Meanwhile, in Westchester, County Executive George Latimer said Thursday that one person died after they were caught in a flash flood in their car. Two additional deaths in the county were later confirmed.

More than 100 people were rescued in Rockland and Westchester counties, officials said.

Gov. Kathy Hochul said during a Thursday morning briefing that her focus will be on flood prevention.

“Before we worried about coastal areas, now it’s about what’s happening in the streets, the drainage systems that need to be enhanced,” Hochul said. “Because of climate change, unfortunately, this is something we’re going to have to deal with with great regularity.”

The inundating rainfall Wednesday evening broke records. Central Park reported a record for rainfall in one hour with 3.15 inches from 8:51 p.m. to 9:51 p.m., the National Weather Service reported.

New York issued a citywide travel ban just before 1 a.m. ET Thursday until 5 a.m.

“All non-emergency vehicles must be off NYC streets and highways,” the city said.

Every subway line in the city was suspended, according to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, due to so many flooded stations. De Blasio told ABC station WABC that people were being evacuated from subway cars stuck underground.

During the flooding, 835 subway passengers were rescued, the NYPD said Thursday.

There were also 69 water rescues, including 18 at the U.S. Open in Queens, police said. The U.S. Open had to pause one tennis match as the court was flooded Wednesday night — despite there being a roof — due to rain coming in the side of the stadium.

Nearly 500 cars were abandoned, police said.

The governor declared a state of emergency Wednesday within 14 counties “in response to major flooding due to Tropical Depression Ida,” she said in a statement, while encouraging New Yorkers to “please pay attention to local weather reports, stay off the roads and avoid all unnecessary travel during this time.”

By Thursday morning, “Metro-North, LIRR and the New York City subway system are not fully functioning,” Hochul said.

Many New York communities are now grappling with water-logged apartments.

Ryan Bauer-Walsh, an artist who lives in Hamilton Heights, said his apartment on the fifth floor of one of New York City’s Housing Development Fund Corporation cooperatives was inundated with rain.

“This is the second time in two months that the roof has caved in and they’ve been doing asbestos removal. Unfortunately, asbestos-contaminated water, we think, has come into our apartments,” he told ABC News.

“My primary concern is with the infrastructure of the city,” he said. “It’s feeling a little hopeless … especially as we get more and more of these massive storms.”

New Jersey

In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy quickly declared an emergency with 3 to 5 inches of rain falling per hour in some locations across the tri-state area.

“We will use every resource at our disposal to ensure the safety of New Jerseyans,” Murphy tweeted. “Stay off the roads, stay home, and stay safe.”

At least 23 people have died due to the storm in the state.

Four residents of the Oakwood Plaza apartment complex in Elizabeth were found dead in the aftermath of the flooding, Mayor Chris Bollwage said in a press conference Thursday morning.

The victims included a 72-year-old wife, a 71-year-old husband, a 38-year-old son and a 33-year-old woman who was their neighbor, officials said.

Rescuers were checking the rent roll and going door-to-door through the entire complex to make sure no other bodies were found, a spokesperson for the mayor told ABC News. The complex is across from the Elizabeth Fire Department headquarters, which was inundated with 8 feet of water.

At least one person also died due to the flooding in Passaic, Mayor Hector Carlos Lora confirmed on Facebook Thursday morning.

The person was trapped inside their car, which was “overtaken by water,” he said.

The mayor — who declared a state of emergency in the city — said that two other residents were reported to have been swept away by the water. The search continues for them.

“We have too many areas where the flooding has gotten so bad that cars are stuck and we have bodies underwater,” Lora said in a video posted to Facebook Wednesday night. “We are now retrieving bodies.”

Some 60 residents were receiving temporary shelter in City Hall, the mayor said Thursday.

Two people died from flooding in two separate incidents in Hillsborough and one person was found dead in a heavily damaged pick-up truck discovered in daylight in Milford, New York ABC station WABC reported.

Several homes were damaged in Mullica Hill, across from Philadelphia, due to a tornado that touched down. Three tornadoes were confirmed in New Jersey, most in the southern part of the state.

“Gloucester County has experienced devastating storm damage,” the county said in a statement. “It is likely that multiple tornadoes have touched down within our communities. Our Emergency Operations Center is fully activated with multiple local, county, state, and regional partners assessing damages and deploying resources.”

In Gloucester County, 20 to 25 homes were “completely devastated,” and roughly 100 more sustained some damage, when a tornado ripped through Harrison Township, Wednesday, the mayor told ABC News.

Mayor Lou Manzo said the community is “blessed” that no one died and only one person had to go to the hospital, but the damage to property across the township is “extensive.”

Fire and emergency personnel made “a few rescues” of people who became trapped after sheltering in their basement, according to the mayor.

There was also a “confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado” located near Woodbury Heights, at about 6:30 p.m. and another “confirmed large and destructive tornado” over Beverly, near Trenton, at 7 p.m., according to the National Weather Service.

As the storm swept through the area Wednesday, a baggage area flooded and flights were grounded at Newark Liberty Airport.

“We’re experiencing severe flooding due to tonight’s storm,” the airport’s account tweeted. “All flight activity is currently suspended & travelers are strongly advised to contact their airline for the latest flight & service resumption information. Passengers are being diverted from ground-level flooded areas.”

Cancellations were still commonplace Thursday afternoon out of Newark.

Pennsylvania

In Montgomery County, three storm-related fatalities were reported, Commissioner Dr. Val Arkoosh said in a press briefing Thursday morning.

One of those was an unnamed woman who died when a tree fell onto a home in Upper Dublin Township, according to Philadelphia ABC station WPVI.

A fourth Pennsylvania fatality, 65-year-old Donald Allen Bauer, of Perkiomenville, drowned inside his vehicle after it went into the Unami Creek in Bucks County, state police said in a news release.

The Schuylkill River in Philadelphia had risen to a major flood stage early Thursday morning. It was forecast to rise a few additional feet before cresting around 9 a.m. The National Weather Service has increased its predicted water level for the river to 17.2 feet — surpassing the highest recorded total of 17 feet. The rain has stopped, but flood risk continues, the Philadelphia Office of Emergency Management said on Twitter.

Randy Padfield, Pennsylvania’s state emergency management agency director, estimated Thursday the number of water rescues to be in the “thousands” following catastrophic rain and flooding. In Montgomery County alone, officials responded to at least 500 calls, he said in a press briefing.

There were four confirmed tornadoes in Pennsylvania in Horsham Township, Bristol, Oxford and Buckingham Township, according to the NWS.

Connecticut

A trooper died after he was rescued when his vehicle was swept away in floodwaters in Woodbury, officials said in a press conference Thursday morning. His name was not released.

He called for help around 4 a.m. and after a search was found and hospitalized with critical injuries. He died Thursday morning.

Maryland

A 19-year-old male was found dead due to flooding at the Rockville Apartments in Montgomery County, Maryland, police said in a news release. Officials received multiple calls for flooding at the home at 3:50 a.m. and 150 residents were displaced by floodwaters.

ABC News’ Will Gretsky, Alex Faul, Ahmad Hemingway and Melissa Griffin contributed to this report.

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Texas school district closes after two teachers die of COVID

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(WACO, TX.) — A Texas school district has temporarily halted its in-person learning after two junior high school teachers died of coronavirus within the first weeks of the school year.

Natalia Chansler, 41, a sixth-grade social studies teacher, and David “Andy” McCormick, 59, a seventh-grade social studies teacher, had just welcomed students back to their classrooms at Connally Junior High School, outside of Waco, when they both became ill with COVID-19, last month.

“It has been very devastating and heartbreaking for the students, the staff, for everybody that surrounds the situation,” Jill Bottelberghe, assistant superintendent of human resources, told ABC News on Tuesday. “The one thing you don’t ever know is exactly how many lives they have touched as an educator… so I’m sure we’re not the only ones that are feeling that heartbreak right now.”

McCormick was diagnosed with COVID-19 just one day after the start of the school year on Aug. 19, dying less than a week later. Shortly after McCormick’s death, Chansler tested positive for the virus, dying just three days after her diagnosis, according to the district.

“Never thought that we would have to do that again in the same school year, much less within a week,” Bottelberghe said.

The decision to shutter school buildings was made following a “continued increase in Covid-19 cases” and absences among staff and students, district officials said in a letter to the community.

“With the loss of two beloved teachers, we know that concerns for physical and mental health are heightened. We want to assure you that we are focused on measures to take care of our students and staff,” Wesley Holt, Connally ISD superintendent wrote, adding that the district is working to conduct a thorough sanitizing of the junior high campus, and will offer free COVID testing to any community members, prior to students returning to school buildings after Labor Day.

Bottelberghe said although the district is now just weeks into the school year, there has already been a rising number of students and staff testing positive, with a 17% positivity rate among students, and a 15% positivity rate among staff, at the junior high school.

Texas continues to struggle through its latest COVID-19 surge, with nearly 14,000 patients currently hospitalized, and more than 16,000 residents testing positive for the virus each day.

According to federal data, Texas currently has the highest number of confirmed and suspected pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations in the country, with 364 children receiving care across the state. Further, as of Aug. 22, more than 20,200 Texas public school students, and nearly 7,500 teachers and staff members, have tested positive for COVID-19 since the beginning of the school year, according to state data.

McCormick was entering his first-year teaching in the Connally School District, but was “well-known” for his connections in the community. He also taught for the district in the past, according to district officials. According to his obituary, he served in the U.S. Air Force, following his graduation from Pan American University. McCormick’s vaccination status was unknown to the district.

ABC News could not reach McCormick’s family.

Chansler, who was the youngest of 10 children, according to her family, was entering her second year with Connally School District. The 41-year-old had previously taught in the LaVega and the Waco school districts, and she had recently become a new grandmother.

“Natalia was one of the funniest, wittiest, beautiful, smartest baby sisters that you could ask for,” Annice Niecy Chansler, one of Chansler’s sisters, told ABC News. “She was kind of like a mom to [her students] at school, teaching them how to balance out their lives to be productive outside of school. She loved on them.”

Chansler’s other sister, La Andrea, said she was not against vaccination, but she had some “unique issues that caused her to question whether or not the vaccine was for her.”

“She was considering getting the vaccine, and she was still doing her own research,” said Annice, who is also a school nurse in another Texas school district. “I don’t think she thought that COVID would take her as fast as it did. She was thinking okay, when all this was over, that she would get [the vaccine].”

Annice said although her sister took other precautions, she was still left vulnerable to the virus.

“She [wore] her mask, but if the delta variant wants to get you, because 1,000 kids around you are not protected, that’s what’s gonna happen. She was nervous about it. But she couldn’t afford to stay at home,” Annice said, asserting that she “absolutely” believes face coverings should be required in schools.

In the past several weeks, the contentious back and forth debates over mask mandates in Texas schools have escalated. Despite Gov. Greg Abbott’s executive order barring school districts from instituting mask mandates, several Texas school districts have defied state orders and require face coverings. However, the Connally school district has not made the move to mandate masks.

“It’s kind of out of our hands,” said Bottelberghe, who said that although masking remains a personal choice, school officials are highly encouraging all students and staff to wear a mask.

“We are currently consulting with our school district attorney, as far as what we can do as far as what our next steps are. We just want to make sure that we aren’t defying an order that may come back and hurt the district or the students in any way.”

Bottelberghe stressed the district will work to do whatever is best for the students.

“We’re definitely trying to get some control over the situation, you know, at no point do we ever want to put anybody in harm’s way,” Bottelberghe said.

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Texas abortion law alarms reproductive justice advocates: ‘We are forcing people into generational poverty’

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(DALLAS) — Marsha Jones, a Texas native, says she has received many desperate calls from women in the state struggling to access abortions and reproductive care.

They are often young, alone and afraid, she said.

“We’re talking about young women who live in some of the most dire communities,” Jones told ABC News, recounting stories of women who came to her for help, including a pregnant teenager whose mother was addicted to drugs and a young woman who was in an abusive relationship.

Jones is the CEO of the Afiya Center in Dallas — an organization that advocates for Black women and girls. The center provides practical assistance to women seeking abortions by providing funding for sonograms, transportation, childcare, hotels, meals and other services.

Now, under a new Texas law, Jones and others who assist women in getting access to abortions say they have become targets themselves.

The law will make most abortions illegal after six weeks of pregnancy and will encourage anyone to sue a person they believe is providing an abortion or assisting someone in getting an abortion after six weeks, which is before many women learn that they are pregnant.

“It’s almost like they have put a bounty on those of us — people like us — and others, and even our donors, who want to make sure that people have access to reproductive health care and [that] includes abortion,” Jones said. “So now you have just people on the street, who can now sue us, attack us in all these kinds of ways, and with that, it almost ties our hands, because how much can we do if we are being sued every day?”

S.B. 8, which was signed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, went into effect on Wednesday and the U.S. Supreme Court formally rejected a request by Texas abortion providers to block it while legal challenges continue.

But despite S.B. 8, Jones said she and her team will not stop working to help women.

“We’re going to continue working at the Afiya Center,” Jones said, adding that through educational programs, they hope to help young women “understand their reproductive system” so they can become aware of pregnancies before they reach six weeks.

According to an August study by The Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive rights organization, S.B. 8 will lead to shutting down a large swath of abortion clinics across the state and will increase the average one-way driving distance to an abortion clinic by twenty-fold — from 12 miles to 248 miles.

This disproportionately impacts low-income women and women of color, who do not have the financial means to travel.

Marcela Howell, who leads a coalition of eight organizations led by Black women that advocate for reproductive justice across the country, including the Afiya Center, told ABC News that S.B. 8 is the latest chapter in a history of legislation that has disproportionately hurt women of color

“Roe v. Wade promised the right to abortion, but for Black women who have to rely on Medicaid or who don’t have insurance coverage at all, and have to find money to get abortion services, that right has never been exercised, it’s always had barriers to it,” Howell said.

Howell, who leads In Our Own Voice: National Black Women’s Reproductive Justice Agenda, said that a disproportionate number of Black women live in low-income households and rely on Medicaid, which cannot be used for abortion access under the Hyde Amendment.

Jones said that even when low income women in Texas are able to get financial aid through abortion funds to cover the cost of the procedure, many still don’t have access to care because they cannot afford related travel costs, childcare or other medical costs like sonograms.

And these barriers, according to Jones, take time to resolve and are part of the reason many women can’t get an abortion before six weeks gestation — the restriction under S.B. 8.

“We are forcing people into generational poverty, we are forcing women to stay inside of homes, houses, spaces where their lives are on the line,” Jones said.

“When we make this a political or religious right argument, we are allowing a very small segment of the community, of the country to make decisions for the majority that they have no business making, because they do not know these people’s lived experiences,” she added.

ABC News’ Devin Dwyer contributed to this report.

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