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Kurt Kreuger attended a presidential campaign event for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Thursday — not that he felt it would make much of a difference.

Kreuger, a 33-year-old from the city, is still deciding who to vote for in Monday’s caucuses, which kick off the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination after months of candidates on the trail. Kreuger said he’s leaning toward backing entrepreneur and commentator Vivek Ramaswamy but is seriously weighing all of his options after voting for former President Donald Trump in 2020.

But while his personal ballot is still up for grabs, he said, the race overall isn’t.

“Trump’s going to win the caucus,” Kreuger predicted to ABC News. “There’s no chance anybody else wins.”

That sentiment was echoed in recent interviews with a dozen voters and Republican operatives in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina which, along with the Nevada caucuses, encompass the first phase of the primary election.

According to voter and expert interviews — and nearly all polling — Republicans prefer one candidate to the others: Trump, who has campaigned on pledging to dismantle the Biden administration’s record. The former president often focuses on a message of “retribution” and touts anti-immigrant and anti-government policies.

Despite the initially crowded field of candidates running against him and despite the intensive media coverage and despite the frequent campaign stops and impassioned pitches from candidates like Haley and Florida Gov. Ron Desantis — despite all of that and despite Republican voters voicing concerns about having Trump be their White House nominee again, pre-vote polls show he remains the favorite choice.

With hours to go until ballots start being cast, Trump maintains double-digit leads not just in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina but across the rest of the country, as well as nationally, according to 538’s averages.

All of that has added up to a technically competitive contest that feels like anything but, some voters and operatives said.

“It is boring,” New Hampshire GOP strategist Dave Carney said. “It’s technically open, but it’s really running against a two-time presidential nominee.”

For more signs of how secondary the run-up to the Iowa caucuses has recently felt, look no further that the streets of the state’s capitol city just days before the main event that has for years been positioned as key on the road to the White House (despite history showing otherwise).

On one midday afternoon last week, blustering winds whipped blankets of snow from the once-in-a-decade storm around Des Moines, where the streets were deserted, save for a handful of vehicles dotting the roads.

Due to the treacherous weather, nearly all campaigns altered or flat-out canceled events — further overshadowing their final pitches to voters. Trump, the front-runner, who has decided to campaign much less than some competitors, canceled three of his four scheduled in-person appearances this weekend, opting instead for telerallies and off-the-record stops.

Few campaign signs dotted the sidewalks heading into Monday. The lively caucus pre-parties and raucous organizing events that would light up the city in past cycles have not returned; even the large-scale watering holes and popular hotel bars for the throngs of out-of-state media were seen teeming with dozens, rather than hundreds.

That atmosphere marks a stark departure — both from the 2016 Republican nominating contest, in which first-time candidate Trump ultimately emerged victorious, and the 2020 Democratic primary, when President Joe Biden won out only after months of closely watched campaigning in a bustling field.

“This time eight years ago, we had tons of candidate events and stops where you would have two and three things that day. They would be doing local county party events, they’d be doing meetings, they’d be doing coffees and meet-and-greets and bus tours. And so, I just don’t know if the tone is the same as it was eight years ago in that it’s almost like it’s already been decided,” said one well-connected South Carolina GOP operative who asked for anonymity to speak about the race.

That has even some of the most ardent supporters of Trump’s rivals managing their expectations in the early states.

When asked what the best-case scenario would be for Haley in Iowa, Sanford Owens, a volunteer from Oregon who traveled all the way to Cedar Rapids, told ABC News it would be Haley getting “within five to eight points” of Trump — a margin that polling suggests would be a massive upset.

“I would be popping the champagne. I’m popping it baby. And I’m getting the good stuff: the Veuve!” Owens said.

To be certain, Trump’s rivals are working to motivate Iowans to vote in the caucuses.

“The blizzard is not going to stop us, we will fight. The wind chill is not going to stop us, we will fight,” DeSantis said at an event in Davenport on Saturday night. “The media’s not going to stop us, we will fight. The polls won’t stop us, we will fight. We have in our power to fix this country.”

Still, others sounded less certain.

“I just am hopeful that a lot of people will participate on Monday, and we’ll see where that goes,” said Debbie Neumeyer of Robins, Iowa, who plans on caucusing for Haley.

Some Republicans warned of apathy.

Beyond Trump’s yawning lead, Iowans are expected to continue to face dangerously cold weather on Monday, sparking speculation that could dampen turnout.

Some operatives have questioned if Trump’s voters will feel emboldened enough to brave the elements or if they feel comfortable that the caucuses are in the bag.

However, others warned the cold and Trump’s advantage combined could make supporters of other candidates wonder if it’s even worth voting if the contest is already considered out of reach.

“My dad specifically told me he wanted to vote for Haley, but he isn’t sure that it’s going to be worth going to caucus on caucus night because he thinks that Trump is gonna run away with it anyway. So, what’s the point?” said one GOP strategist with experience working in Iowa, who asked not to be quoted by name because of professional relationships. “So, I literally told him, ‘It’s gonna come down to turnout from people like you. If you think that it’s not worth showing up, then he is going to run away with it.'”

ABC News’ Hannah Demissie and Will McDuffie contributed to this report.

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If former President Donald Trump is the Republican nominee in the 2024 election, the race will be overshadowed by the legal issues and other controversies he’s facing, creating a potent advantage for Democrats, rival Ron Desantis argued on Sunday.

“He’s focused a lot on things that concern him,” the Florida governor and 2024 primary candidate told ABC News “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl just one day before voting starts with the Iowa caucuses.

“Obviously, the distractions of everything that’s going along with all these legal issues has been a huge thing for him [Trump],” DeSantis said. “You’re gonna have criminal trials, you’re gonna have a lot of focus on things like Jan. 6 by the media, and I think that ends up focusing the election on things that are going to be advantageous for Democrats.”

“The notion that somehow all this stuff that’s swirling around him is going to be a positive in a general election, that’s just not true,” DeSantis said, warning of how the contest could be turned into “a referendum on Donald Trump.” (Trump denies all wrongdoing.)

“Whereas if I’m the nominee … I think it will be a crisp opportunity for a crisp victory for Republicans,” DeSantis said.

With the Iowa caucuses one day away — officially starting the 2024 Republican primary race on Monday in brutally cold winter weather — DeSantis is making his closing argument for why conservative voters should turn to him over Trump, who has remained the clear front-runner in state and national polling.

“I’ve delivered on 100% of my promises. Donald Trump, obviously, didn’t build the wall, didn’t drain the swamp and didn’t reduce the debt,” DeSantis told Karl. “I’ve also taken on and beaten the Democrats and the left. And in reality, Donald Trump, as president, oftentimes got beat by the Democrats.”

Still, many potential Iowa voters don’t seem swayed and Trump has dismissed DeSantis’ attacks, refusing even to debate with him.

A new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll released on Saturday showed the former president winning 48% support from likely Republican caucusgoers.

Meanwhile, DeSantis, who has put enormous resources into winning the state, building a robust ground game there, slipped down to third place — narrowly behind former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

DeSantis has repeatedly boasted over the past few months that he would win the Iowa caucuses but has changed his tune recently as voting approaches, now saying that the nominating contest is about winning the most delegates across every state and that he’s in the race for the “long haul.”

Pressed by Karl on “This Week” if he still promises to win Iowa, DeSantis said instead that “it’s good to be an underdog” and that his supporters in Iowa are ready to turn out for him.

“I’d rather have people lower expectations for us,” he said. “I tend to perform better like that.”

He also took a jab at Haley, who has risen in recent months to compete with him for second place behind Trump. Haley is “not getting support from conservatives,” DeSantis said. “She’s relying on Democrat-leaning independents for her support in the primary.”

Karl cited new ABC News/Ipsos polling that shows 68% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents feel Trump has the best chance to win in November. “Why are they wrong?” he asked.

DeSantis said GOP voters “understandably” see Biden as a “very feeble” candidate who would lose to anyone — but he argued past elections like in 2022 show Trump’s influence was rejected by many voters despite Biden’s poor popularity.

DeSantis also said he thinks current polling showing Trump beating out Biden in a hypothetical race, nearly a year away from the election, is “somewhat of a mirage.”

However, he would not say directly if he believes Trump would lose against Biden in another matchup

“My fear is doing 2024 with a rematch would have a lot of the same dynamics that we had in 2020,” he said.

And when Karl sought a direct answer from DeSantis on Trump’s moral character, the governor pivoted to his primary race pitch.

“For me, leadership is not about yourself, it’s not about showmanship or any of that,” he said. “It’s about producing results. So, when you make promises, do you deliver? And if you break the promises, then that’s not good leadership.”

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Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, one of President Joe Biden’s top surrogates, on Sunday downplayed Biden’s continued poor polling ahead of a likely rematch with former President Donald Trump in the 2024 race.

Pritzker’s comments come after a new ABC News/Ipsos survey found Biden’s approval rating sitting at a meager 33%, with the public reporting widespread economic discontent.

“Things are getting better in this country — and over the course of an election year, as the economy continues to improve, you’re gonna see poll numbers improve too,” the governor told ABC News “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl.

“I think your poll is a bit of an outlier, but here’s what I’ll tell you: This battle hasn’t even been joined yet. You’ve got a bunch of Republicans, MAGA Republicans, espousing things that are not good for the American public that are on the stage now,” Pritzker added. “And it’s not until they choose a nominee will we truly be in this battle. And then it’s a choice.”

Biden and allies like Pritzker have increasingly sought to cast the next presidential race as a referendum on Trump, highlighting issues like Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his support for abortion restrictions.

Republicans say the White House’s record shows failures on immigration, inflation and more.

“The truth of the matter is, this [the 2024 election] is going to be won among independents, and independents understand that, as Democrats do, that it’s the Republicans that are trying to take your freedoms away,” Pritzker argued on Sunday.

Asked about Trump choosing not to sign a voluntary candidate pledge in Illinois that he would not advocate for overthrowing the government — which many other candidates sign — Pritzker said it was more evidence of Trump’s unfitness for office.

“We just can’t afford to have a president who is acting in unconstitutional fashion, and in his own self-interest,” he said.

The Illinois Democrat also swatted away the persistent concerns about Biden’s age. At 81, he is the oldest-ever president. Trump is 77.

Citing the new ABC/Ipsos poll, Karl pressed Pritzker: “Just 28% think that President Biden has the mental sharpness to effectively serve for another term. So how does he address those concerns, those very real concerns, that voters have?”

“Maybe we ought to start by just acknowledging that Joe Biden has years of experience — that when you’re talking about someone’s age, you’re also talking about the wisdom that they gained over many years and how they’ve demonstrated their empathy that they’ve learned from so many experiences,” Pritzker said. “Joe Biden and Donald Trump are roughly the same age. Do you think Donald Trump has learned empathy in his life? He has not.”

Karl further pressed Pritzker on how Biden should handle historically high migrant crossings at the southern border, an issue Trump and other conservatives have been highlighting.

Pritzker maintained that it was Democrats, not Republicans, who have been pushing for major immigration changes and pointed to ongoing negotiations on Capitol Hill.

“My hope is that they’ll get something done. But not enough has been done, there’s no doubt about that. And I think that the president needs to do more. The Congress needs to do more,” he said.

He criticized efforts by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to transport migrants from his state to Democratic areas, particularly in light of the brutal winter weather battering parts of the country. Abbott has criticized Democrats’ handling of immigration and said border states like Texas suffer because of it.

“He does not care about people,” Pritzker shot back at Abbott on “This Week.”

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The 2024 primary season begins with Donald Trump well ahead of his Republican opponents on key measures of popularity, while Joe Biden’s job approval rating has dropped to a low for any president in the past 15 years, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds.

With the Iowa caucuses Monday, the national survey finds Trump especially well rated by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents on three metrics: having the best chance to win in November, being a strong leader and being the party’s most qualified candidate.

Trump also leads his Republican opponents, by less of a margin, on two other attributes — empathy (i.e., understanding the problems of people like you) and shared values. And seven in 10 Republicans and GOP leaners report a favorable opinion of Trump overall.

In all, 72% of Republican-aligned adults would be satisfied with Trump as the nominee, similar to 75% in May. Sixty-one percent would be satisfied with Ron DeSantis. Others score lower — Nikki Haley, satisfactory to 48%; Vivek Ramaswamy, 44%; Chris Christie (who withdrew Wednesday), 23%; and Asa Hutchinson, 17%.

See PDF for full results.

Satisfaction is harder to find among political moderates, who account for about three in 10 Republicans and GOP leaners. They’re 21 points less likely than conservatives to express satisfaction with Trump, 30 points on DeSantis and 22 points on Ramaswamy. These gaps essentially disappear for Haley, Christie and Hutchinson.

Compared with Trump on the Republican side, considerably fewer Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would be satisfied with Biden as their party’s nominee, 57% — a reflection of his weak ratings overall and on issues including the economy and immigration.

This survey was produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos Public Affairs via its online, probability-based KnowledgePanel®. Past polls used for comparison were conducted by telephone, with efforts in this study to minimize differences; that said, mode effects may be a factor in some cases. The survey, fielded in English and Spanish, includes a robust sample of 2,228 respondents.

GOP CONTEST — Trump’s advantages in the Republican contest are particularly striking in terms of perceived electability and leadership. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say he’s the candidate with the best chance of getting elected in November. That plummets to 12% for Haley, 11% for DeSantis and single digits for the rest.

Nearly as many, 65%, peg Trump as the strongest leader in the GOP lineup, again dropping precipitously for his opponents.

Fewer, but still 54%, say he is the candidate best qualified to serve as president. Fewer than half, 46%, say he best understands the problems of people like them and essentially as many, 45%, pick Trump as the candidate who best represents their own personal values. DeSantis and Haley score in the teens on these measures.

An additional 10% pick Ramaswamy as the candidate who best understands their problems. On all other measures, preferences for Ramaswamy, former candidate Christie and Hutchinson all are in single digits.

DeSantis and Haley trail Trump in favorability as well. Compared with Trump’s 71%, 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents see DeSantis favorably and 46% say the same for Haley. After all her months of campaigning, 22% still don’t offer an opinion of Haley; it’s 13% for DeSantis, vs. 1% for Trump.

There are some notable differences among groups. Republicans and GOP-leaners who have a four-year college degree are less likely than non-graduates to say Trump is best on each of the attributes tested. Most strikingly, just 27% of those with a college degree say Trump best understands the problems of people like them, compared with 57% of those without a four-year degree. There’s a similar 27-point gap by education in saying Trump “best represents your own personal values,” 24 points in saying he’s best qualified, 16 points in seeing him as the strongest leader and 10 points in seeing him as most electable.

Additionally, white evangelical Protestants, a core Republican group, are 11 points less apt than their non-evangelical counterparts to say Trump best represents their values, 40% vs. 51%, a slight difference given sample sizes. At the same time, Trump’s overall favorability rating is higher among evangelicals than in other religious groups, suggesting they’re using a different gauge than shared values to assess him.

BIDEN/TRUMP — A Biden/Trump general election, if that’s the outcome of the primary season, would represent a battle of markedly unpopular candidates. Among all adults, Biden’s approval rating is just 33% in this poll, worse than Trump’s low as president (36%) and the lowest since George W. Bush from 2006-2008. Fifty-eight percent disapprove of Biden’s work.

Among groups, just 31% of women now approve of Biden’s work in office, a new low (as do 34% of men). He won 57% of women in 2020.

He’s at 28% approval among independents, a customary swing voter group; a low of 32% among moderates; and a low of 41% among college graduates, 10 points off his career average in that group.

Further, Biden’s approval rating is 21 points below average among Black people and 15 points below average among Hispanic people, compared with 6 points among white people; more Black people, in particular, offer no opinion.

There’s a striking difference among Black people by age in their views of Biden: He has an approval rating of 65% among Black people age 50 and up, dropping sharply to 32% among Black people younger than 50. Age gaps are not apparent among white or Hispanic people.

Trump’s retrospective job rating is better than Biden’s, but still not positive — looking back, 41% approve of how he handled his presidency, a 7-point drop from four months ago. That includes a 13-point drop among men, with no meaningful change among women; and a 10-point drop among independents.

Another issue for Trump is the question of his ballot access. As reported Friday, 56% of Americans think the U.S. Supreme Court should either order Trump off the ballot in all states (30%) or let each state decide on its own (26%), given his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

FAVORABILITY AND ATTRIBUTES — Personal assessments are about equally negative for both men. Just 33% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Biden — down sharply from 50% the summer before the 2020 election — and about as few, 35%, express a favorable view of Trump. (It’s 28% for DeSantis and Haley alike.)

Biden leads Trump, by 15 points, in one of three attributes tested in the survey — being honest and trustworthy. Forty-one percent say this describes Biden, vs. 26% who say it applies to Trump. That’s down from a high of 38% for Trump, last reached in April 2017, three months into his presidency, and it’s a point from his low on honesty and trustworthiness.

Trump comes back, though, with advantages in two other areas. Forty-seven percent say he has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president, compared with 28% who say this of Biden. And more, 57%, say Trump has the physical health necessary to serve, again compared with 28% for Biden.

Trump’s ratings for mental sharpness and physical health both are down 7 points from last May. Similarly, Biden’s rating for health is down 5 points, and for mental sharpness, 4 points.

THIRD PARTY? — If Biden and Trump were the major-party nominees, 37% say they’d be likely to seriously consider a third-party candidate for president. Fewer, however, say they’d be very likely to do so – 15%. Results are identical among registered voters.

Readiness to seriously consider a third-party candidate in a Biden-Trump rematch peaks at 51% among independent women and moderate women alike. It’s 11 points higher among 2020 Biden voters than 2020 Trump voters, 37 vs. 26%. At the same time, it’s 46% among those who did not vote in 2020, a group that’s less likely than others to turn out this year.

ECONOMY/ISSUES — Broad economic discontent is a key force in current political attitudes. Given 2022’s 40-year high in inflation, just 13% of Americans now say they’ve gotten better off financially since Biden took office; 43% instead say they’re not as well off, a point from the 37-year record set in September. For comparison, in the middle of Trump’s term in office, just one-third as many people, 13%, said they were not as well off.

It follows that just 31% approve of how Biden is handling the economy, while 56% disapprove.

Another question explores why economic attitudes are so glum. Given a choice, 24% say “the economy is in good shape, given low unemployment and rising wages.” Far more — 71% — say “the economy is in bad shape, given higher prices and interest rates.”

unhappy with the economy are more likely to criticize the incumbent president. People who are aligned with the incumbent president are less apt to criticize the economy. So it is in this poll; 90% of Republicans say the economy is in bad shape, as do 74% of independents, compared with 49% of Democrats.

That said, Biden has a tepid 65% approval rating among Democrats for handling the economy, a career low.

The economy isn’t Biden’s only shortfall. His rating for handling immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border is especially low — just 18% approve, about half what it was in spring 2021, while 63% now disapprove. Biden has the lowest rating on immigration for any president in past ABC News/Washington Post polls to ask the question since January 2004 (with various changes over time in question wording).

Biden also gets a poor rating for handling the war between Israel and Hamas, with 26% approving and 48% disapproving; a substantial 25% don’t express an opinion.

That result might reflect frustration with the situation, not so much with Biden, since 43% also say the United States is doing about the right amount to support Israel and 39% say it’s doing about the right amount to help protect Palestinian civilians – both well higher than Biden’s approval for handling the situation.

About three in 10 say the United States is doing too much to support Israel; about two in 10 say it’s doing too little. These are roughly reversed in terms of protecting Palestinian civilians.

Thirty-seven percent of white evangelical Protestants think the U.S. is doing too little to support Israel, well higher than this view in other religious groups. Sample sizes of Muslims and Jews are too small for reliable analysis.

A final result, also on the international front, suggests an easing in criticism of U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. The share of Americans saying the United States is doing too much to support Ukraine rose from 14% in April 2022 to 41% in September; it’s down to 34% in this poll. An open question is whether that reflects recognition of Ukraine’s need for help — or the fact that further aid has been blocked in Congress.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Jan. 4-8, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,228 adults. Partisan divisions are 25-25-41 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2.5 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

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