(NEW YORK) — Hurricane Ian, the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic season, is expected to rapidly intensify on Monday.
Ian is currently forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle by midday Thursday, though there is uncertainty about the hurricane’s track and intensity.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a “state of emergency” for the entire state, with storm conditions “projected to constitute a major disaster.”
The National Hurricane Center has advised residents of Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula to have a hurricane plan in place and to closely follow forecast updates.
Sep 26, 8:23 AM EDT
Hurricane watch issued for Tampa, Fort Myers, Naples
Ian is expected to become major Category 3 hurricane Monday night with winds of 115 mph.
As Ian passes Cuba, it’s expected to rapidly intensify, becoming a Category 4 hurricane as it moves through the Gulf. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
Models are split when it comes to Ian’s landfall in Florida; impacts could be as far north as Panama City and as far south as Fort Myers.
Some models forecast landfall by Wednesday afternoon between Tampa and Fort Myers, while other models predict landfall at the end of the week near Panama City or Apalachicola.
Hurricane watches have been issued in Tampa, Fort Myers and Naples.
-ABC News’ Max Golembo
Sep 26, 5:20 AM EDT
Storm becomes Hurricane Ian
The National Hurricane Center declared Ian a hurricane on Monday, as the storm gained strength on its way toward Florida.
“A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the west coast of Florida from north of Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay,” the center said on Monday.
– ABC News’ Max Golembo
Sep 25, 10:19 PM EDT
NASA to reconvene on whether to take Artemis rocket off launchpad
NASA hasn’t decided whether to leave its Artemis I rocket on the launchpad as it monitors Tropical Storm Ian’s path toward Florida, the agency said Sunday.
The federal space agency’s mission managers will continue discussions on Monday about the next steps as its rocket was delayed again.
On Saturday, NASA scrapped its third planned launch attempt of Artemis I because of weather concerns. Artemis I was scheduled to launch on Sept. 27.
Engineers will decide if the rocket needs to roll back off the launch pad. If they do not roll it back, the next possible launch date is Sunday, Oct. 2.
Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane as it nears Florida.
NASA had to scrub the first launch attempt on Aug. 29 because of a faulty temperature sensor and the second attempt on Sept. 3 due to a liquid hydrogen leak.
If the Oct. 2 launch doesn’t happen, the rocket will be taken back to the Vehicle Assembly Building at the Kennedy Space Center until the team decides on the next date.
-ABC News’ Gina Sunseri, Mary Kekatos and Nadine El-Bawab
Sep 25, 10:27 PM EDT
Ian strengthens once again, forecast to become hurricane on Monday
Tropical Storm Ian has strengthened with maximum sustained winds at 60 mph and is expected to get stronger throughout the night as atmospheric conditions become more favorable for the storm.
Ian is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, becoming even more intense likely into Tuesday.
Ian is moving to the northwest to the Northwest at 12 mph, with the center located 160 miles away from Grand Cayman.
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are expected to experience heavy rain, a heavy surge and possible flash flooding over the next 24 hours.
-ABC News’ Dan Peck
Sep 25, 5:45 PM EDT
Ian weakens slightly but will regain strength overnight
Tropical Storm Ian has weakened slightly, but it is expected to not only strengthen but rapidly intensify overnight as it travels over warm waters in the Caribbean.
As of 5 p.m. ET, the storm system had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was moving west-northwest at 12 mph, with the center located about 220 miles away from Grand Cayman.
Dry air ahead of the storm has delayed the strengthening trend so far. But the rapid intensification is expected to occur Monday into Tuesday as the system continues across the northwestern Caribbean and closes in on western Cuba.
Over the next 24 hours, the outer bands will impact Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, bringing rounds of heavy rain, possible flash flooding and storm surge. Later Monday and into Monday night, Ian will be closing in on western Cuba and will likely bring significant wind and storm surge impacts to the region.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman and portions of western Cuba. A tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of western Cuba, as well as the lower Florida Keys, including Key West.
As of 5 p.m., the forecast track was nudged slightly eastward. Overall, the forecast guidance variability and uncertainty will remain high, and the track for where the storm will be from the middle to the end of the week will continue to shift over the next 24 to 48 hours.
(WASHINGTON) — The Federal Reserve escalated its fight against inflation this week, instituting a major rate increase and saying more will likely follow. The moves will cause a jump in the number of unemployed Americans by the end of next year, the central bank said.
The Fed has put forward a series of aggressive interest rate hikes in recent months as it tries to slash price increases by slowing the economy and choking off demand. But the approach risks tipping the United States into a recession and causing widespread joblessness.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday acknowledged that rate hikes would cause pain for the U.S. economy, as growth slows and unemployment rises. He added, however, that “a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain later on.”
The job losses forecasted by the Fed this week would by the end of 2023 raise the unemployment rate from its current level of 3.7% to 4.4%. That outcome would add an estimated 1.2 million unemployed people, according to Omair Sharif, the founder of research firm Inflation Insights.
Those job losses will disproportionately fall on some of the most vulnerable workers, including minorities and less-educated employees, according to economists and studies of past downturns.
Here are the groups of workers who would most likely lose their jobs if unemployment rises:
Black and Hispanic workers
Black workers would be among the first to lose their jobs if unemployment spikes, since they’re disproportionately concentrated in industries sensitive to economic downturns. Racial discrimination often influences choices made by companies about which workers to fire, economists said.
“The Fed’s actions really do mean some disparate impact for Black workers in the American economy,” Michelle Holder, a labor economist at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, told ABC News.
The vulnerability of Black workers in a downturn manifested during the most recent recession, in spring 2020, when the pandemic caused higher unemployment for Black workers at every education level when compared with their white counterparts, a RAND Corporation study found.
Overall, the unemployment rate for Black workers in the early period of the pandemic peaked at 16.8%, while the unemployment rate for white workers reached only 14.1%.
Between the late 1980s and mid-2000s, government employment data shows “considerable evidence” that Black workers are among the first ones fired as the economy weakens, according to an economic study published in 2010 in Demography, an academic journal.
“To be blunt, discrimination still occurs in the American labor market,” Holder said.
A similar dynamic of disproportionate job losses impacts Hispanic workers, the economists said.
William Spriggs, the chief economist at the AFL-CIO labor union and a professor of economics at Howard University, said Hispanic workers would suffer acutely in a downturn brought about by interest rate hikes, since they’re disproportionately represented in the construction industry.
When the Fed raises rates, it often leads to a spike in mortgage rates, causing prospective homebuyers to put off their purchases and builders to delay further construction. U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages jumped to 6.29% on Thursday, the highest level in 14 years, according to Freddie Mac’s mortgage market survey.
As of last year, Hispanic workers made up nearly a third of all construction workers, according to a National Association of Home Builders analysis of government data published in June.
“We’ve already seen construction work is slowing,” Spriggs told ABC News. “Those construction workers get hit first.”
Less-educated workers
Another group that would stand among the first to end up jobless amid a downturn is less-educated workers.
Two years ago, during the pandemic-induced recession, less-educated workers suffered far more acute job losses than their better-educated peers, according to a study published in 2021 by the Institute for New Economic Thinking.
In general, when the economy weakens, poorly educated workers endure a more negative effect on employment than their better-educated counterparts, according to a study published by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve in 2010.
In the Great Recession, the employment rate for workers with just a high school diploma fell 5.6%, while the employment rate for workers with a college degree fell less than 1%, the study found.
“Workers who tend to fare better when the economy contracts are better-educated workers,” said Holder.
Young workers
Data from the two most recent recessions, in 2020 and 2007, indicates that young workers suffer disproportionately when the economy contracts.
During the pandemic-induced recession, young workers became jobless at a much higher rate than older workers, according to a study released by the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute in 2020.
From spring 2019 to spring 2020, the overall unemployment rate among workers ages 16 to 24 rose from 8.4% to 24.4%, while unemployment for workers ages 25 and older rose from 2.8% to 11.3%, the study found.
A similar outcome followed the Great Recession. Between 2007 and 2010, workers between the ages of 16 and 24 suffered a more dramatic drop in employment than any other age group, according to a Brookings Institution analysis of government data that focused on the ratio of employed workers in a given demographic compared to its representation in the population as a whole.
(NEW YORK) — In July, three months after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, first lady Olena Zelenska told ABC News that she hoped an end to the war was near.
Four months later, just last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he is mobilizing 300,000 more troops against Ukraine.
In a new interview, Zelenska told ABC News’ Amy Robach that the developments are upsetting, saying this is not an “easy period” for the people of Ukraine.
“When the whole world wants this war to be over, they continue to recruit soldiers for their army,” said Zelenska, referring to Russia. “Of course, we are concerned about this. We are worried, and this is a bad sign for the whole world.”
Zelenska, who spoke with Robach through a translator, said she feels though that Ukrainians will continue to persevere in the face of conflict.
“The main difference between our army and the Russian army is that we really know what we are fighting for,” she said.
Zelenska’s husband, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, warned last week in a recorded address to the United Nations General Assembly that Moscow was trying to wait his fighters out.
Zelenska attended the United Nations General Assembly in-person in New York City, where she spoke to Robach about the U.N.’s recent finding that wars crimes have been committed in Ukraine by Russian troops.
A U.N.-appointed panel of independent legal experts reported that, among other crimes, Russian soldiers have “raped, tortured, and unlawfully confined” children in Ukraine.
The report followed an announcement by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in March that the State Department made a formal assessment that Russian forces have committed war crimes in the country.
Zelenska said she was not surprised by the U.N. report but is glad the crimes are internationally recognized now.
“On the one hand, it’s horrible news, but it’s the news that we knew about already,” she said. “On the other hand, it’s great news that the whole world can finally see that this is a heinous crime, that this war is against humanity and humankind.”
Zelenska continued, “Now Ukrainian efforts at the international level are focused on creating an international tribunal for all responsible for crimes that still unfortunately continue to occur in Ukraine during this war.”
Zelenska recently started a foundation to help Ukrainians recover from the devastating effects of the war with Russia.
She said the foundation is focused on three areas: Education, medicine and humanitarian aid.
“Our main goal is to help as many people as possible to return home,” said Zelenska. “For them to be able to return, we need to restore hospitals, schools … We need to rebuild their homes.”
In English, Zelenska directly addressed the American people, saying support from the United States is “crucial.”
“It’s not war between Ukraine and Russia. It’s war for values of all the world. A war for freedom, for human rights, for all that we love, all of the people of the world,” she said. “And that’s exactly what Ukrainians are fighting for now. So don’t stop your support. It’s very important for us.”
(NEW YORK) — Every day at the start of his classes, Nick Orr, a high school science teacher in Nevada, said he checks in with his students about their mental health.
It’s a practice Orr said he began doing after his own brother Anthony died by suicide shortly after graduating high school in 2020.
Orr said Anthony’s death came as a shock and made him realize his brother may have never felt there was a safe space to talk about his mental health.
“I didn’t think there was anything going on,” Orr told “Good Morning America.” “We had a wonderful relationship, but this is just something he never told anyone about, he never spoke about, he never asked for help and unfortunately, it was something that ultimately got the best of him.”
Anthony’s death came at the same time the school district where he attended high school experienced a wave of student deaths due to suicide, according to Orr.
He said the firsthand experience of seeing teenagers struggling with their mental health changed the way he approached it in his classroom.
“How much do we really want to put an emphasis on academic content standards and this rigor when these kids are so obviously hurting and struggling,” said Orr. “We can ask them to think about earth science for 80 minutes straight, but we know that that’s not going to happen.”
He continued, “There are going to be issues that promote emotional reactions for these kids and teaching them how to deal with their feelings as well as how to process their feelings. That’s how we set them up to be successful in their life.”
In Orr’s classroom, he began asking his students to confidentially give him a thumbs up or thumbs down sign at the start of class to let him know how they’re feeling.
He started holding what he calls “social-emotional conferences” with students as follow-ups. Orr also started helping students with their physical health as a way to improve their mental health, taking on classroom challenges to drink more water, get more sleep and eat breakfast daily, something he has his first period students do together as a class each morning.
Orr said he works hard to make sure each student knows that they matter and that help is available.
“My kids know that if they ever need me, I am a trusted adult that they can come to and that I’m here to help however I can,” said Orr. “I tell the kids that they all matter, that we don’t all have to dance to the same beat or do the same job or go down the same path, but we do all need to look out for each other and respect each other.”
Orr said that connecting with each student and looking out for their mental health is “no easy task” given all the other responsibilities he and other teachers have, but it is one he is committed to as a way to honor his brother.
He said both he and his parents talk openly about Anthony and mental health so that no other family has to suffer a similar loss.
“As suicide survivors, we don’t want anyone else to experience the pain that we’ve lived through and live through to this day,” said Orr. “It can be terrifying to ask for help, but so is what could happen if we don’t get help. Very few things are as permanent as suicide.”
Growing concerns over teens and suicide
Across the country, the suicide rate among young people has been on the rise, increasing nearly 60% between 2007 and 2018, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Data shows that in the U.S., suicide is the third leading cause of death for young people, and, more specifically, the second leading cause of death for youth ages 10 to 14.
In 2021, during the coronavirus pandemic, there was an almost 51% rise in emergency department visits related to suspected suicide attempts among girls ages 12 to 17, compared to the same time period in 2019, according to data released last year by the CDC.
Amid the pandemic, youth mental health was declared a “national emergency” by the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and the Children’s Hospital Association.
U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek H. Murthy issued a 53-page advisory warning of a growing mental health crisis among young people, writing, “The challenges today’s generation of young people face are unprecedented and uniquely hard to navigate.”
Dr. Jenna Glover, a licensed psychologist and director of psychology training at Children’s Hospital of Colorado, said she has seen firsthand the mental health struggles among teens.
“In large part that’s just due to having increased pressures in our society and more access to information and connections to other people, which isn’t always a helpful thing,” said Glover. “I think we also have seen a small amount of that increase come just because we are identifying the problems so more people are more aware, but certainly kids are dealing with more stress and pressure relative to previous generations.”
Glover said teens today are connected online which means they face more stressors like bullying and the pressure to succeed as well as full access to information on societal struggles like wars, the pandemic and climate change.
“They’re experiencing a lot more stress than many of us did growing up,” said Glover, who said in her home state, suicide is the leading cause of death for young people ages 10 to 24.
The high rate of mental health struggles among her peers in Colorado is what prompted Aimee Resnick, 17, of Centennial, Colorado, to advocate for a now-state law that requires student ID cards to feature the state’s free, 24/7 mental health hotline.
It was that hotline that Aimee said saved her life when she called it for help at age 13 while struggling with suicide idealization.
Aimee said like many teens, she felt the pressures of school, including bullying, and said she suffered from an eating disorder.
Through the hotline, Aimee said she was able to get immediate help and was able to continue on with mental health services that gave her tools to cope.
“We need this information out here so that young people know who to call,” she said of her motivation to increase access to the mental health hotline.
According to Glover, teens could be at a higher risk of death by suicide relative to adults because their brains are still developing.
“I have a colleague who says teenagers are like Ferraris, where the engine and the gas pedal are put in but not the brakes,” she said. “They are experiencing a full range of emotions that they’ve never experienced before but they don’t have the same cognitive abilities to control those emotions that adults do.”
Glover said the part of the brain that manages emotions and inhibits strong behaviors is not fully developed until around age 25.
“It’s easy as parents to think, ‘Why can’t you mange this? It’s not that big of a deal,’ but they literally can’t see the world the same way that we can because we have a different part of our brain developed,” she said. “They’re going to experience stronger emotions without that brake pedal built in and then, in addition, they’re experiencing a lot more stress than many of us did growing up.”
Gabriella Betance, now 22, of Lakewood, Colorado, said she had no idea how to handle the big emotions she felt as a teenager, a struggle that led to two hospitalizations after suicide attempts.
“When you start struggling with these big feelings, the first people you are going to talk to are going to be your peers and you’re all kids and don’t know how to handle it,” she said. “The two times that it was a serious, life-threatening moment, I was lucky enough to get the help that I needed.”
She continued, “But I feel like if we had the tools, if we had the conversations regularly about mental health, like check-ins and safe words, that I wouldn’t have felt the need to act in such a drastic way.”
How parents, teachers can help
One of the most important things that adults can do to support teens with their mental health is to have open and honest conversations, according to Glover.
She said parents in particular should not be afraid to talk directly about suicide with their child.
“It’s important for us to state it and say it because when we don’t, kids are worried that it’s not OK that they’re thinking that or feeling that, and it’s a fairly normal human reaction to have,” said Glover, adding that parents can open the conversation by asking their child if anything has been worrying or overwhelming them and then ask directly if the child has had any thoughts of killing or hurting themselves.
“Don’t worry that that is going to plant an idea,” she said of asking directly about suicidal thoughts. “If they’re not having those thoughts, they can just tell you no. But if they are, they will experience a huge amount of relief that you asked directly so they can get that outside of themselves and talk about their problems and usually when kids are able to talk about their problems, they are able to start seeing solutions.”
Glover said checking in and asking your teenager those questions every few months is important, even if a child is not showing symptoms of mental health struggles.
Just as Orr works with his students to make sure they are eating and sleeping well, Glover said access to good nutrition and getting consistent and good quality sleep can greatly improve mental health for teens in particular.
She said social connection is another important factor for preventing teen suicide and that includes both connections with their peers and with dependable adults.
“If a child can just develop one positive relationship with an adult outside of a parent in your life, that is a huge protective factor,” said Glover. “Getting kids involved in extracurriculars, having them have relationships in community, in church, with neighbors, all of those are going to serve as protective factors.”
For teens in need of help, pediatricians, school counselors and school psychologists are easily accessible resources for help, according to Glover.
She also recommends that parents program mental health help lines into their phones so they are easily accessible, saying, “When you are in a crisis, you don’t want to have to be Googling what to do. You want to have it immediately available.”
Glover also encourages parents of teens who struggle with mental health to practice calling a help line together, even if the child is not in crisis in the moment.
“You can absolutely do that and just say, ‘We’re just practicing calling in case we ever need to. We want to know what this is like,'” said Glover. “That practice might make it more likely that your child can use that in a moment when they are in crisis.”
If you are experiencing any thoughts about wanting to hurt yourself or anyone else, any thoughts of suicide, or any mental health crisis, please call or text 988. You will reach a trained crisis counselor for free, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. You can also go to 988lifeline.org or dial the current toll free number 800-273-8255 [TALK].
(NEW YORK) — After Donald Trump suggested last week that as president “you can declassify just by saying it’s declassified, even by thinking about it,” Republican Wyoming Senator John Barrasso disagreed — but only after George Stephanopoulos pressed him on the issue twice on ABC’s “This Week.”
During an interview on Sunday, Barrasso was asked by Stephanopoulos about Trump’s handling of classified material, which is under federal investigation as Trump denies wrongdoing.
Trump claimed to Fox News’ Sean Hannity last week that while “different people see different things,” his view of this authority was absolute: “If you’re the president of the United States, you can declassify just by saying it’s declassified. Even by thinking about it.”
Stephanopoulos asked if Barrasso agreed. The senator said that he had not heard about such an assertion and pivoted to criticizing the Department of Justice’s court-authorized search of Mar-a-Lago.
Barrasso said that he had “never seen anything like that before,” referring to the FBI “raid” Trump’s home, and that it had “become political.”
Stephanopoulos pushed back: “You know that a president can’t declassify documents by thinking about it. Why can’t you say so?”
The senator, who also said that he isn’t versed in the rules of presidential declassification and wants to get a briefing from the DOJ on the investigation, then agreed with Stephanopoulos. He said, “I don’t think a president can declassify documents by saying so, by thinking about it.”
That view lines up with what outside experts have told ABC News: The president must document his declassification process somewhere, whatever his process was.
Barrasso spent much of his “This Week” appearance pushing back on President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, including addressing the potential revival of the 2015 nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Stephanopoulos opened up the interview by having Barrasso respond to Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser. Sullivan was also interviewed on “This Week” on Sunday and said nuclear negotiations — so Iran never has a weapon “they can threaten the world with” — could be effective at the same time the White House was putting public pressure on the country over its treatment of women and protesters.
“Did you find his argument convincing for staying in the Iran nuclear talks?” Stephanopoulos asked Barrasso.
“No deal with Iran, George, is a good deal … They continue to claim ‘death to America.’ We cannot allow them to have a nuclear weapon,” Barrasso said.
Stephanopoulos also sought clarity from Barrasso on the GOP and Ukraine.
Citing criticism of American’s continued aid to Ukraine by some Republicans, like Ohio Senate nominee J.D. Vance, Stephanopoulos asked Barrasso if Democrats were right to warn that the GOP may restrict future support if they retake Congress.
“No. There continues to be bipartisan support in the House and in the Senate for weapons to Ukraine,” Barrasso said.
He said he wanted the White House to be quicker in providing weapons to Ukraine and said “we ought to be producing more American energy to help our European allies” and American consumers who are dealing with the fallout of the conflict with Russia, a major energy provider.
Stephanopoulos asked Barrasso, just as he asked Sullivan: “Do you believe that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s hold on power is secure?”
“I’m not sure,” Barrasso, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said. “He is in a deep hole right now and he’s dug this hole. And I thought his statement to the country there really was desperate. It didn’t show really confidence or strength.”
“The Foreign Relations Committee is going to have a hearing this Wednesday on what additional things we can do in terms of sanctions [on Russia],” Barrasso said. “And also we have a secure briefing on Thursday in the Senate to take a look right at what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.”
(NEW YORK) — The U.S. is seeing evidence that Russia is “struggling” in its invasion of Ukraine and has warned Moscow that there would be “catastrophic consequences” if it were to use a nuclear weapon in its war against Kyiv, the White House national security adviser said Sunday.
Jake Sullivan, in an interview with ABC “This Week” anchor George Stephanopoulos, pointed both to the protests against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mobilization of 300,000 reservists and to what Sullivan called “sham” annexation referendums in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine.
“These are definitely not signs of strength or confidence. Quite the opposite: They’re signs that Russia and Putin are struggling badly,” Sullivan said while noting Putin’s autocratic hold on the country made it hard to make definitive assessments from the outside.
“It will be the Russian people, ultimately, who make the determination about how Russia proceeds and the extent to which that there is resistance and pushback to what Vladimir Putin has tried to do, calling up these hundreds of thousands of young men,” Sullivan added.
“Do you want them to rise up and replace Putin?” Stephanopoulos asked.
“At the end of the day, the future of Russian politics is going to be dictated, not by Washington, not by anyone in Europe, but by the people inside Russia,” Sullivan responded. “And what you are seeing in the streets right now is a deep unhappiness with what Putin is doing.”
His comments come amid escalating rhetoric from Putin as Russian forces have been forced to cede large swaths of northeast Ukraine while retreating from a Ukrainian counteroffensive this month.
Last week, Putin called up reservists and suggested that tactical nuclear weapons could be used to change the course of the war, groundlessly accusing the West of threatening Russia’s territorial integrity. Since before attacking Ukraine in February, Putin has cast the invasion as a matter of Russian national security.
“The territorial integrity of our homeland, our independence and freedom will be ensured, I will emphasize this again, with all the means at our disposal. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing winds can turn in their direction,” Putin said in a speech last week.
“I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and some components are more modern than those of the NATO countries,” Putin added.
On “This Week,” Sullivan declined to explain precisely what warnings have been communicated between Russia and the U.S. but he said that there would be dire repercussions if such a weapon were used.
“We have communicated directly, privately, to the Russians at very high levels that there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. We have been clear with them and emphatic with them that the United States will respond decisively alongside our allies and partners,” Sullivan said.
“So that means taking the fight directly to Russia?” Stephanopoulos asked.
Sullivan demurred: “We’ve been careful in how we talk about this publicly because, from our perspective, we want to lay down the principle that there would be catastrophic consequences but not engage in a game of rhetorical tit-for-tat.”
Stephanopoulos also asked Sullivan if protests in Iran over the death of a woman who was not adhering to the country’s strict female dress code would be enough to topple the government in Tehran.
“The United States … hasn’t necessarily over many decades had a great track record of perfectly predicting when protests turn into political change, and I can’t perfectly predict that sitting here today. What I can say is they do reflect a deep-seated and widespread belief among the population of Iran, the citizens abroad, the women of Iran, that they deserve their dignity and their rights,” Sullivan said.
Stephanopoulos pressed, given the Iranian government’s actions, if the Biden administration should continue seeking to revive the Obama-era nuclear deal which President Donald Trump scrapped. Conservatives have repeatedly criticized those efforts.
Sullivan said that the White House feels diplomacy and political pressure can go hand-in-hand.
“The fact that we are in nuclear talks is in no way slowing us down from speaking out and acting on behalf of the people of Iran,” he said. “We’re not going to slow down one inch in our defense and advocacy for the rights of the women and citizens of Iran.”
(PITTSBURGH) — A gunman was on the run Sunday after shooting three people, including two teenagers, and sparking panic at a crowded amusement park near Pittsburgh, police said.
Gunfire erupted around 10:46 p.m. Saturday at the Kennywood amusement park in the Pittsburgh suburb of West Mifflin, police said.
Witnesses said the shooting occurred in front of the park’s popular Musik Express ride and sent park-goers diving for cover and running to the exits. Police said several people were injured when they were apparently trampled while attempting to get out of harm’s way.
Allegheny County Police Superintendent Christopher Kearns said an altercation occurred and the alleged assailant pulled a handgun and started firing.
At the time of the shooting, West Mifflin and Allegheny County police officers were at the park and quickly responded along with park security to the gunfire, according to a statement released by park officials.
Kearns said officers found two people wounded at the scene. He said a 15-year-old boy and a 39-year-old man were both shot in the leg. The teenager was taken to Children’s Hospital in Pittsburgh in stable condition, while the adult victim was treated and released from Mercy Hospital, Kearns said.
A third victim, also a 15-year-old boy, left the park on his own but later showed up at a hospital to be treated for a graze wound to his leg, Kearns said.
Witnesses told investigators the suspected gunman appeared to be a teenager wearing a dark hooded sweatshirt and a COVID-style mask.
A handgun was recovered at the scene, according to police.
Police are investigating how the weapon got into the park. All Kennywood employees and guests must pass through metal detectors at the entrance gate and all backpacks and coolers are subject to inspection, according to the park’s website.
The shooting occurred on the first day of the park’s 20th annual Phantom Fall Fest, a family-friendly Halloween season event, according to the park’s website.
The gunfire broke out about 14 minutes before the park was set to close for the night.
“Most everyone ran. There was, at one point, a hundred people just ran out of the park,” a witness told ABC affiliate station WTAE in Pittsburgh.
Kennywood officials said the amusement park was immediately shut down after the shooting and all visitors were evacuated. The park plans to reopen on Sept. 30, according to the park’s website.
“The safety of our guests and team members are our top priority,” the park’s statement reads.
(ROME) — Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), could become the first female prime minister in the history of Italy in an anticipated right-wing surge to the polls on Sunday.
Europe’s attention is trained on Rome, where this potential first is joined by fears that Meloni would restore an ideology not seen in Italy since World War II. Pollsters expect the Sunday vote to deliver a conservative coalition to parliament, with the government guided by Meloni as premier.
The archconservative of Italian politics, Meloni entered politics at age 15 in 1992, joining the neo-fascist Social Movement, a group with pronounced sympathy for Benito Mussolini, the country’s dictator from 1925 to 1945. Fratelli d’Italia’s party imagery evokes Italy’s fascist past, but Meloni has rejected the associations, framing her proposed conservative coalition as a nationalist project that would recover power from Brussels.
A Meloni government would represent a major change in tide from the technocrat government held together by former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi. Meloni’s party was the only opponent to Draghi’s coalition, which fell in July after maintaining a hardline on consensus issues in the European Union – including sending arms to Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.
Observers say EU battle lines may be realigning, with Italy, one of the bloc’s founders and its third-largest economy, cozying more to Hungary and Poland than Germany and France.
The collapse of Draghi’s government in July threw Italy into a familiar political tumult, and a splintered left wing, including the center-left Democratic Party and the populist Five-Star Movement, has not coalesced with a pre-election pact. The Democratic Party leader, Enrico Letta, has trailed consistently in polls and is expected to split ballots cast by liberals with voters for Five-Star and a “Third Pole” coalition.
The right wing, though, has joined forces. Polls indicate Meloni will be the leading conservative finisher on Sunday; her government’s junior partners would be Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, and Silvio Berlusconi, the head of the center-right Forza Italia. Berlusconi, the media tycoon and conservative firebrand, rose to power in 1994 and won three stints as prime minister, in total the longest serving premier in the post-war era. Salvini has been seen as the conservative in the wings of Palazzo Chigi, while Meloni had led the smaller Fratelli d’Italia, distant from the mainstream.
Analysts credit Meloni’s surge past them to her resolute anti-Putin, pro-NATO posture. Berlusconi, a longtime Putin friend, has outright echoed the Kremlin’s war narrative. Salvini has wavered on continuing to send arms to Kyiv.
In the two-month campaign sprint, Meloni has worked to settle fears over the conservative coalition, including those of her own making. If more pugilistic toward Brussels than her recent predecessors, Meloni does not propose a divorce with the EU or an exit from the euro, which is supported by more than 70% of Italians. She has tempered her past hostile tones toward LGBT rights and abortion rights.
Amid rising energy costs hitting Italians particularly hard and long-stagnant wages in the country, Meloni has made her message economic, focusing on tax cuts and investment in nuclear energy.
Anticipation for a far-right surge in Rome, which would follow closely behind Tuesday’s stunning electoral victory for the Swedish Democrats, a party with neo-Nazi origins, has already provoked barbed remarks from Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission chief. Von der Leyen was not keen to veil Brussels’ posture toward a government that could move to subvert democracy.
“If things go in a difficult direction, I’ve spoken about Hungary and Poland, we have tools,” von der Leyen told students in the United States on Thursday. The Commission has recommended exercising an internal sanctions measure on Hungary over corruption it alleges.
Potential clashes with the EU will not be the first order of business should the right-wing coalition win a majority of votes on Sunday. Before it can govern, conservatives will have to organize a government behind Meloni in a process that could take weeks.
Fratelli d’Italia won 4.4% of the vote in the 2018 parliamentary elections, the last time Italians went to the polls. After votes are counted on Sunday, barring a major break from polling, it’s poised to be the nation’s leading political party.
(NEW YORK) — With his party struggling in the midterms, his economic stewardship under fire and his overall job approval under 40%, a clear majority of Democrats in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say the party should replace Joe Biden as its nominee for president in 2024.
In the November midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47%-46% between the Republican and the Democratic candidate in their House district, historically not enough to prevent typical first-midterm losses. And one likely voter model has a 51%-46% Republican-Democratic split.
Looking two years off, just 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favor Biden for the 2024 nomination; 56% want the party to pick someone else.
Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, for their part, split 47%-46% on whether Donald Trump should be their 2024 nominee — a 20-point drop for Trump compared with his 2020 nomination.
The unpopularity of both figures may encourage third-party hopefuls, though they rarely do well.
In a head-to-head rematch, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds a 48%-46% Biden-Trump contest, essentially tied. Among registered voters, the numbers reverse to 46%-48%. That’s even while 52% of Americans say Trump should be charged with a crime in any of the matters in which he’s under federal investigation, similar to views after the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.
On issues, the survey finds broad opposition to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling eliminating a constitutional right to abortion and a big Democratic advantage in trust to handle the issue. But there’s no sign it’s impacting propensity to vote in comparison with other issues: four rank higher in importance and two of them — the economy, overall, and inflation, specifically — work strongly in the GOP’s favor.
Biden and the midterms
The president’s standing customarily is critical to his party’s fortunes in midterms — and Biden is well under water. Thirty-nine percent of Americans approve of his job performance while 53% disapprove, about where he’s been steadily the past year.
Specifically on the economy, with inflation near a 40-year high, his approval rating is 36% while 57% disapprove — a 21-point deficit.
Each election has its own dynamic but in midterm elections since 1946, when a president has had more than 50% job approval, his party has lost an average of 14 seats. When the president’s approval has been less than 50% — as Biden’s is by a considerable margin now — his party has lost an average of 37 seats.
There’s one slightly better result for Biden: 40% say he’s accomplished a great deal or a good amount as president, up from 35% last fall. This usually is a tepid measure; it’s averaged 43% across four presidents in 11 previous polls since 1993.
There’s something else the Democrats can hang on to; their current results are better than last November, when the Republicans led in national House vote preferences by 10 percentage points, 51%-41% — the largest midterm Republican lead in ABC/Post polls dating back 40 years.
It’s true, too, that national House vote polling offers only a rough gauge of ultimate seats won or lost, in what, after all, are local races, influenced by incumbency, gerrymandering, candidate attributes and local as well as national issues.
Issues
The Democrats are not without ammunition in midterm campaigning: As noted, Americans broadly reject the U.S. Supreme Court ruling eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion — 29% support it, with 64% opposed. (Indeed, 53% strongly oppose it, compared with 21% strongly in support.)
And the public trusts the Democratic Party over the Republican Party to handle abortion by a wide 20 points. In another measure, while 31% say the Democratic Party is too permissive on abortion, many more, 50%, say the GOP is too restrictive.
But if abortion keeps the Republicans from entirely nationalizing the election around the economy, it doesn’t defang the public’s economic discontent.
Seventy-four percent say the economy is in bad shape, up from 58% in the spring after Biden took office. The GOP leads the Democrats by 16 points in trust to handle the economy overall and by 19 points in trust to handle inflation. Equally important, 84% call the economy a top issue in their vote for Congress and 76% say the same about inflation. Many fewer, 62%, call abortion a top issue.
Other issues also differentiate the parties. In addition to the economy, the Republicans can be expected to focus on crime in the campaigns’ closing weeks; they lead by 14 points in trust to handle it, and it’s highly important to 69%.
Democrats, in return, hold a wide 23-point advantage in trust to handle climate change, though it’s highly important to far fewer, 50%.
The parties run closely on two other issues — education and schools, Democrats +6, highly important to 77%; and immigration, essentially an even division, highly important to 61%.
When these are assessed as a combination of importance and party preference, inflation and the economy top the list, followed by abortion, then climate change, crime, education and immigration.
While inflation, the economy and abortion are marquee issues, one stands out for another reason: The Republicans’ 14-point advantage in trust to handle crime matches its largest since 1991. Among independents, it’s a whopping 34-point GOP lead.
Indeed, on abortion, supporters of the Supreme Court ruling are more apt than its critics to say voting is more important to them in this election than in previous midterms, 73% vs. 64%. Also, 76% of the ruling’s supporters say they’re certain to vote, as are 70% of its opponents.
Intention to turn out is influenced by other factors. Among all adults, it’s considerably higher among whites — 72% certain to vote — than among Black people (55%) or Hispanics (46%) — a result that advantages Republicans, whose support is strongest by far among whites.
Groups
Beyond differential turnout, weakness in midterm vote preference among Black and Hispanic voters may compound Democratic concerns.
While Democratic House candidates lead their Republican opponents by 61 points among Black adults who are registered to vote, that compares with at least 79-point margins in exit polls in the past four midterms.
This survey’s sample of Hispanics who are registered to vote is too small for reliable analysis, but the contest among them looks much closer than recent Democratic margins — 40 points in 2018, 27 points in 2014 and 22 points in 2010.
Republican candidates, meanwhile, show some strength among registered voters who don’t have a college degree, +11 points in vote preference compared with an even split in the 2018 ABC News exit poll.
A factor: Non-college adults are 8 points more likely than those with four-year degrees to say they’re not just concerned but upset about the current inflation rate. Results among other groups don’t provide evidence for the hypothesis that the abortion ruling might boost the Democrats, compared with past years, among some women.
Women younger than 40 support the Democratic candidate in their district by 19 points, but did so by 43 points in the 2018 exit poll. Suburban women split about evenly between the parties (44-47% Democratic-Republican), about the same as among suburban men (45-50% Democratic-Republican).
Independent women are +5 GOP in vote preference; independent men, essentially the same, +3. Independents overall — often a swing voter group — divide 42-47% between Democratic and Republican candidates. This is a group that voted Democratic by 12 points in 2018 — but Republican by 14 points in 2014 (when the GOP won 13 House seats) and by 19 points in 2010 (when the GOP won 63 seats).
Lastly, there are some milestones in Biden’s approval rating. He’s at new lows in approval among liberals (68%), Southerners (33%) and people in the middle- to upper-middle income range (34%). And his strong approval among Black adults — among the most stalwart Democratic groups — is at a career-low 31%.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 18-21, 2022, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults, including 908 registered voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions in the full sample are 28%-24%-41%, Democrats-Republicans-independents, and 27%-26%-40% among registered voters.
(WASHINGTON) — Even before Russian troops invaded Ukraine, U.S. officials warned global peace would be endangered if Russian President Vladimir Putin were allowed to brazenly seize another sovereign country.
At the same time, analysts have warned that if he faced no option but defeat in that bid, the outcome could prove to be even more dangerous — a so-called “cornered Putin.”
Ukrainian successes on the battlefield have not only pushed Russian troops back but now have pushed Putin further into a corner — forcing him to take a series of dramatic steps to reinvigorate his brutal campaign: a sweeping military draft, labeled as a “partial mobilization,” to surge thousands of soldiers to the fight, and orchestrating what the West has called “sham” referenda in occupied territories in Ukraine — intended to pave the way for them to be “annexed” — considered, in Putin’s view, to be part of Russia.
Most alarming, in a rare televised address, Putin also issued a new round of thinly-veiled nuclear threats — warning that Russia will use “all available means” to protect what he now portrays as Russian people and territory.
While some of his rhetoric isn’t new, the changed circumstances in the conflict are. ABC News spoke to experts and former U.S. officials about why Putin’s latest saber-rattling escalates risks — for both Putin and the world.
Losing the home crowd
Putin’s “partial mobilization” to send Russians who have gone through military training to serve in Ukraine is broadly seen as a tacit acknowledgement that his military is failing to accomplish Moscow’s goals in Ukraine.
But Max Bergmann, a former State Department official and the director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says it also puts Putin’s control over his own country in question.
“What is clearly happening here is that the Russian military position in Ukraine is collapsing,” he said. “Forcing people to go and fight in Ukraine is an extremely risky political decision. This is one of the most incredibly disruptive things that can be done to a society.”
Although economic penalties for the invasion continue to have a mounting impact, Bergmann says the move will bring the war home to many Russians for the first time. And what’s worse, he adds, is that Putin hasn’t even officially called his invasion of Ukraine a war — still describing it as a “special military operation.”
“There’s a total disconnect between the Russian government messaging that this is just some sort of tactical military effort in Ukraine, versus the need to suddenly rip men that have maybe at one time in their life served in the military for a year away from their families — many with children — and from their jobs, off to a battlefield where tens of thousands of people are dying,” he said.
Despite the Kremlin’s efforts to silence protest, Bergmann says if enough discontent builds, Putin risks losing public support, and with it, his grasp on power.
“He is gambling his entire regime over Ukraine,” he said.
A powerful tool in Putin’s arsenal is the state propaganda machine, but Bergmann believes Putin still has a steep hill to climb in portraying the war as defending the motherland.
“Putin hopes he can harken back to Russia’s past of repelling invaders, whether it’s Napoleon’s army or Hitler’s. But then, Russia was being invaded. It was an existential war. This is a war of imperial ambition,” he said. “He’s going to have to work incredibly hard to convince the Russian public that it’s worth it to lose their husbands, fathers and sons in an oblast in Ukraine.”
While the Russian president still appears to wield uncompromising control, Bergmann warns the tide can shift quickly.
“Autocratic regimes look incredibly stable until they’re not,” he said.
Buying time
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his speech this week to the United Nations General Assembly, warned Moscow was trying to wait his fighters out.
“Russia wants to spend the winter on the occupied territory of Ukraine and prepare forces to attempt a new offensive,” he said in a recorded address.
Analysts also say buying time to move newly conscripted troops to the front might be the motivator behind other elements of Putin’s strategy.
“Those troops will take a while to get to the battlefield,” said John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Russia Program. “It’s definitely a game on his part.”
Putin’s latest efforts towards annexation, coupled with promises to defend its land, are likely aimed at giving Ukraine second thoughts about pursuing its counteroffensive — and giving the West second thoughts about supporting it, Hardie and Bergmann said. But they say it’s unlikely to prove effective.
“Putin’s hope is that this causes Ukraine and the West to freak out to give some pause about further advances,” Bergmann said. “But I think support for Ukraine will remain strong. And that Ukraine is going to advance militarily as it sees fit.”
One senior administration official called the referenda a “crass and desperate” maneuver that would not alter the U.S. outlook on the conflict, and predicted that other powers around the world — even those more closely aligned with Russia — would not be significantly swayed.
Still farther to fall
If Putin’s attempts to delay Ukraine’s military progress fail, the most pressing question becomes whether he will make good on his threats to go nuclear — and what the U.S. and its allies might do in response.
“It’s something that you have to take very seriously. Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal,” said Bergmann. “And when the Russian president starts making nuclear threats, it’s something everyone has to pay attention to.”
While both Hardie and Bergmann agree Putin doesn’t appear ready to resort to the nuclear option, they say deterrence must be the priority. American officials have publicly and privately warned Moscow against using nuclear weapons, and Hardie said they should also press countries the Kremlin might be more receptive to listening to — such as China and India — to send the same messages.
But the consequences Russia could expect to face are less clear.
“Are we actually ready to do something more than sanctions? I tend to think we are probably not. I think the administration rightly wants to avoid World War III,” said Hardie.
Because of this, the Biden administration’s “strategic ambiguity” on repercussions is the best available avenue, he argues.
“If offers the benefit of leaving doubt in Putin’s mind,” Hardie said.
While Putin could ultimately disregard any doubts, Hardie says it will likely require Putin to grow considerably more desperate.
“I think this would be very much a last resort,” he said, noting the Kremlin might test the waters first with demonstrations before hitting critical infrastructure or troop concentrations. “But I think we’re a long way from that point.”
But Hardie said a significant incursion into Crimea — the peninsula annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014 — would likely move the needle much more, and that it’s possible Putin will decide to protect any newly annexed territory with the same ferocity.
