This ABC News graphic shows the forecast for Hurricane Melissa as of Oct. 27, 2025. (ABC News)
(NEW YORK) — Hurricane Melissa, now a powerful Category 5 storm, will slam into Jamaica on Monday as the worst storm the island has ever seen.
Here is Melissa’s forecasted path:
Melissa is expected to make landfall in central or western Jamaica late Monday night or early Tuesday morning, likely as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Most of the destruction will unfold from noon on Monday to noon on Tuesday.
Tropical storm-force winds are already underway and will steadily increase throughout the day. Winds are expected to reach hurricane strength by Monday night and will last through Tuesday afternoon.
The rain and storm surge will be even more dangerous than the wind for some. Melissa is moving very slowly, so it will bring a deluge of rain to Jamaica, with totals forecast to reach 15 to 30 inches and even up to 40 inches in localized areas. This will spark catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding on Monday and Tuesday.
Storm surge will decimate parts of the southern coast with water surging up to 13 feet above ground level.
Next, the heavy rain will move to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where 8 to 16 inches of rainfall is possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are also in the forecast.
Melissa will then hit southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as a major hurricane, dumping 10 to 20 inches of rain and leading to catastrophic flooding and numerous landslides.
On Wednesday, the southeastern Bahamas will see rain totals of 4 to 8 inches, hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.
Melissa may still be a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday night or Friday morning when it passes near or over Bermuda.
(WASHINGTON) — Speaking with reporters on board Air Force One en route to Japan on Monday, President Donald Trump again refused to rule out a bid for a third presidential term, despite the 22nd Amendment limiting presidents to being elected twice.
“I would love to do it,” Trump said when asked about the prospect of a 2028 presidential bid. “I have my best numbers ever. It’s very terrible. I have my best numbers,” he continued.
“Am I not ruling it out? You’ll have to tell me,” Trump said when pressed on the matter. “All I can tell you is that we have a great, a great group of people, which they don’t,” he added, referring to the Democratic Party.
The 22nd Amendment of the Constitution expressly forbids a president from being elected to office “more than twice.”
Asked about whether he would be willing to fight in court over the legality of another presidential bid, Trump responded, “I haven’t really thought about it.”
“We have some very good people, as you know, but I’ve had, I have the best poll numbers I’ve ever had,” Trump said before turning to talk about the successes of his current term in office.
When pressed about those “very good” potential Republican candidates for the 2028 presidential contest, Trump mentioned members of his own administration.
“We have great people. I don’t have to get into that, but we have one of them standing right here. We have, JD, obviously the vice president is great. Marco’s great,” Trump said, referring to Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Trump dismissed the prospect of running on the 2028 Republican ticket as vice president. “Yeah, I’d be allowed to do that,” Trump said. “I guess I think it’s too cute. Yeah, I would rule that out because it’s too cute. I think the people wouldn’t like that. It’s too cute. It’s not — it wouldn’t be right.”
Trump was later asked about the health tests he received at Walter Reed hospital earlier this month, with the president mentioning that if his health screenings come back to reveal something bad he “wouldn’t run.”
“And if I didn’t think it was going to be good, either, I would let you know negatively. I wouldn’t run. I’d do something. But the doctor said some of the best reports for the age, some of the best reports they’ve ever seen,” Trump said.
Trump told reporters that he received an MRI scan as part of the “advanced imaging” tests.
“It was perfect,” the president said.
When asked what that MRI was for, Trump referred the question to his doctor. “I think they gave you a very conclusive — nobody has ever given you reports like I gave you,” Trump said.
Stephen M. Katz/South Florida Sun-Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images
(WASHINGTON) — The Department of Homeland Security said an undocumented immigrant was killed after being struck by a vehicle on a highway while attempting to flee immigration officials.
A DHS spokesperson said Jose Castro-Rivera and other occupants traveling in a vehicle were stopped by ICE officers on Thursday as part of a “targeted, intelligence-based immigration enforcement operation.” DHS did not provide further details about the operation.
While DHS did not say where the incident took place, the Virginia State Police reported it happened on Interstate 264 in Norfolk around 11 a.m. and said Castro-Rivera was struck by a 2002 Ford pickup truck and was pronounced dead at the scene. Its report said he was 24 years old.
DHS said Castro-Rivera “resisted heavily” and fled onto the highway where he was fatally struck. The agency did not offer specifics about Castro-Rivera allegedly resisting arrest.
“One of our ICE officers administered CPR to Castro-Rivera in an attempt to keep him alive. Unfortunately, Castro-Rivera perished. The officer then informed the three detained aliens that their friend had deceased. He then grieved and prayed with them,” the spokesperson said.
It’s unclear what happened to the other occupants of the vehicle or the driver of pickup truck.
The Virginia State Police said its preliminary investigation indicated the Castro-Rivera was fleeing from an ICE pursuit when he exited a vehicle and tried to cross the interstate. It said it was not involved in the pursuit and was investigating only the resulting accident.
DHS blamed Castro-Rivera’s death in part on those who spread “misinformation” and ways to avoid detention that it says has emboldened people to resist its agents.
“Sadly, this is the tragic result of such resistance,” the spokesperson said.
(NEW YORK) — A Navy helicopter and a fighter jet, both conducting routine operations from the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier, went down in the South China Sea about 30 minutes apart Sunday, the U.S. Pacific Fleet said in a statement.
The U.S. Navy MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter went down at about 2:45 p.m. local time. All three crew members were safely recovered, the Navy said.
“Following the incident, separately, at 3:15 p.m., an F/A-18F Super Hornet fighter assigned to the ‘Fighting Redcocks’ of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 22 also went down in the waters of the South China Sea while conducting routine operations from Nimitz.”
Both crew members ejected and were also safely recovered, the Navy said.
“All personnel involved are safe and in stable condition. The cause of both incidents is currently under investigation,” the U.S. Pacific Fleet said in the statement.
(NEW YORK) — At least one person was killed and six others wounded in a shooting Saturday night at Lincoln University in Pennsylvania, according to authorities.
Chester County District Attorney Chris de Barrena-Sarobe said in a Sunday morning news conference that the shooting occurred outside the university’s International Cultural Center during homecoming celebrations following a football game.
“This is a devastating night,” Barrena-Sarobe said. “It was a chaotic scene and people fled in every direction.”
One person was detained and was in possession of a firearm, Barrena-Sarobe said, adding that it was possible that there might be another shooter. Officials do not believe that the incident was a planned mass shooting, the district attorney said.
“We are investigating with the full power of federal, state and local law enforcement,” Barrena-Sarobe said.
The Chester County District Attorney’s Office said in an initial statement on social media early on Sunday that law enforcement was “investigating the shooting at Lincoln University” and had identified seven gunshot victims.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said in a post to X that he was briefed on the shooting and offered his support to the university.
Lincoln University, a historically Black university, is located in the southeastern part of Pennsylvania.
(WASHINGTON) — President Donald Trump announced he’s adding an extra 10% tariff on Canadian imports over a negative TV commercial featuring a speech by President Ronald Reagan.
Officials in the province of Ontario have said the ad, which protests Trump’s tariff policy, will be pulled from the airwaves next week. However, Trump said in a social media post that given the ad was played during Game 1 of the World Series Friday night, he is increasing duties on Canadian goods.
The ad was played again during Game 2 of the World Series on Saturday night.
“Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform.
Earlier this week, Trump said he was halting trade talks with Canada over the ad, which launched earlier this month.
The ad features audio with excerpts of a 1987 address by Reagan that came as he imposed some duties on Japanese products but cautioned about the long-term economic risks of high tariffs and the threat of a trade war.
Trump claimed, without evidence, that the ad “was Canada’s hope that the United States Supreme Court will come to their ‘rescue’ on Tariffs that they have used for years to hurt the United States.”
The Supreme Court is set to hear a case this term about Trump’s sweeping tariff policy.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Friday he was halting the ads so that trade talks could resume but noted that it would air during the World Series.
Dominic Leblanc, the Canadian minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, appeared to respond to the ad campaign in a statement released on Saturday, saying in part that “progress is best achieved through direct engagement with the U.S. administration — which is the responsibility of the federal government.”
“As the Prime Minister said [Friday], we stand ready to build on the progress made in constructive discussions with American counterparts over the course of recent weeks,” Leblanc said.
The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute said in a statement on social media Thursday evening that the Canadian ad campaign used “selective audio and video” of Reagan and “misrepresents” what he said in the address.
The foundation said in a statement that it was exploring its legal options.
(LONDON) — French authorities arrested two men in relation to last week’s major jewel heist at Paris’ Louvre Museum, the French National Police confirmed to ABC News, amid a nationwide manhunt for the perpetrators.
One suspect was arrested at 10 p.m. on Saturday at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport while trying to board a plane bound for Algeria, police said.
Police did not offer any information on the timing or circumstances of the second suspect’s arrest.
Both men are suspected of having been part of a team alleged to have robbed the Louvre last week. They are both from Seine Saint Denis, a northeastern suburb of Paris, police said.
No new information has been made public on the whereabouts of the stolen jewels that Paris Public Prosecutor Laure Beccuau estimated to be worth $102 million.
French Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez praised investigators for making the arrests in a social media post on Sunday.
“I would like to offer my warmest congratulations to the investigators who worked tirelessly as I asked them to and who always had my full confidence,” Nuñez said in the post. “The investigations must continue in accordance with the secrecy of the investigation under the authority of the specialized interregional court of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office.”
“We will continue with the same determination! Let’s keep going!” Nuñez added.
Authorities launched a nationwide manhunt for the Louvre suspects after the theft from the museum’s Apollo Gallery on the morning of Oct. 19, shortly after the museum opened to the public.
The stolen items included crowns, necklaces, earrings and brooches, some of which once belonged to Emperor Napoleon and his wife.
The team of thieves drove up to the side of the museum in what police described as a “mobile freight elevator” equipped with a metal ladder on the back that was extended up to a window, according to the Paris police.
“They deployed the freight elevator, securing the surroundings with construction cones, before accessing the second floor, in the Apollo Gallery, by breaking the window with an angle grinder,” according to the police statement.
“Inside, they then smashed two display cases, ‘Napoleon jewels’ and ‘French crown jewels,’ using the angle grinder and stole numerous pieces of high-value jewelry,” police said.
French President Emmanuel Macron vowed that authorities would catch those responsible for what he described as an “attack on a heritage that we cherish because it is our history.”
French Culture Minister Rachida Dati, who is overseeing the investigation alongside the Justice Ministry, described the heist to ABC News as “a simple, but spectacular operation.”
Soon after the theft, investigators said four suspects left the scene on two motorbikes, winding their way through central Paris and last spotted speeding southeast on Highway A6 out of Paris and in the direction of Lyon.
(LUMBERTON, N.C) — At least two people were killed and seven others are in critical condition after a mass shooting took place early Saturday at a large party in North Carolina, according to officials.
A total of 13 people were shot in the incident just outside of Maxton, according to the Robeson County Sheriff’s Office.
Over 150 people ran from the scene of the shooting before law enforcement arrived, according to the sheriff’s office.
The shooting was an isolated incident and there is no current threat to the community, according to the sheriff’s office.
“We are asking that anyone with information regarding this incident or anyone that was at the scene when the shooting occurred, to make contact with Sheriff’s Investigators by calling 910-671-3100 or email sheriff.wilkins@robesoncountysonc.gov,” the sheriff’s office said in a statement.
(NEW YORK) — As New York City voters head to the polls to decide the next mayor, the Democratic frontrunner and his policy proposals have been thrust into the national spotlight.
State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has faced attacks by his opponents, critics, Republicans, and even President Donald Trump, who have lashed out at his progressive agenda with labels such as “radical” and “communist.”
However, when examined, Mamdani’s proposals, such as freezing the rent for some New York tenants, free buses and free child care, are not only feasible but also build off the foundations of previous New York City laws, political analysts told ABC News.
“Everything he has been talking about has been done in various degrees,” Doug Turetsky, the former chief of staff and communications director at New York’s City’s Independent Budget Office, told ABC News. “There is nothing that is new in what he’s proposing, and he’s been clear on how he aims to achieve them.”
Turetsky and others have noted that while Mamdani will likely have his work cut out for him if he wins the election, he has been putting in the work to not only sell his ideas but also draw in key city players to make it a reality.
“There will be challenges for sure, and those expecting buses to be free on January 1, if he gets inaugurated, are going to be disappointed because his plans will take time,” Turetsky said. “But if Mamdani is going to be successful, he’s going to have to work with the right people, and he’s starting to make those inroads.”
Affordability becomes top issue in race Mamdani, a 34-year-old member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA,) who was elected to state office four years ago, stunned the city when he won the Democratic primary in June. He beat out former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who was seen as the favorite due to his experience and ties to Democratic leaders.
The assemblyman made the cost of living the centerpiece of his campaign and vowed to give New Yorkers a change of pace following the scandals of Mayor Eric Adams.
“I think that the Democratic Party must always remember what made so many proud to be Democrats, which is a focus on the struggles of working-class Americans across this country,” Mamdani told ABC News’ senior political correspondent Rachel Scott in June.
Christina Greer, an associate professor of politics at Fordham University, told ABC News that Mamdani has kept his ear to the ground and listened to New Yorkers’ concerns, rather than relying on consultants.
“All the messaging is not a messaging for just one group. What’s the racial composition of people worried about rent? It’s everyone,” she said. “The message is clearly something New Yorkers and people across the country have been yearning for.”
How Mamdani’s proposals build off previous plans Mamdani’s campaign and policy proposals have been headlined by three major proposals: freezing the rent for the city’s 1 million rent-stabilized apartments, making buses free and guaranteeing child care for New Yorkers from six weeks until 5-years-old.
The assemblyman said he would use his power to appoint members to the city’s Rent Guidelines Board, which decides rents for those specific units, and that they would keep prices stable during their annual vote.
New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who ran against Mamdani in the primary, and, ultimately, crossed-endorsed him in the ranked choice voting ballot, told ABC News that the nominee’s proposals build upon the work that the city has done at addressing New Yorkers’ needs.
“There is evidence we can do it because we have done it,” he said.
From September 2023 to September 2024, the MTA issued a pilot program that made five bus lines that served minority communities free, as part of a state proposal that Mamdani pushed.
A review of the pilot released over the summer found that ridership among those free routes increased, but travel times did not get faster.
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg also proposed free buses when he ran for a third term in 2009, but the plan was never implemented.
Lander noted that 12 years ago, Mayor Bill de Blasio pushed for universal pre-K for all New York’s 4-year-olds and sought funding from Albany to make it a reality. De Blasio faced huge pushback from Democrats and Republicans alike for his proposal, who argued about the scope and cost of the project.
In 2014, universal pre-K launched in the city and eventually expanded to 3-K seats in select neighborhoods. Other school districts throughout the state and country have launched similar universal pre-K programs.
“The city has already taken bold steps for child care for all 4-year-olds and most 3-year-olds. The next step is 2-year-olds and to keep going,” Lander said, adding that his office has found the pre-K program has helped lower childcare costs for millions of parents across the city and improved the economy.
Lander also noted that the Rent Guidelines Board has frozen rents for rent-stabilized units in the past, with it happening three times during de Blasio’s administration, including during the pandemic.
The comptroller acknowledged that a lot of Mamdani’s proposals will require work and agreements from state leaders, but he pointed out that Mamdani is putting the work to make his case.
“Of course, this is going to take a lot of money, and it will be challenging because of federal cuts,” he said.
Mamdani’s opponents, Cuomo, who is running on a third-party line, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, have argued that the assemblyman’s proposals cannot be realistically done and that he lacks the experience to execute his vision.
“This is not a job for someone who has no management experience to run 300,000 people, no financial experience to run a $115 billion budget,” the former governor said in a debate last week.
How Mamdani backs up his proposals Mamdani has not been shy about the huge costs and steps it would take to achieve his goals, but he has outlined steps to get through the roadblocks.
The free bus proposal would have to be approved by the MTA, which is run by the state government, and would need an additional $800 million in state funding, according to Mamdani.
Mamdani also estimated that his plan to increase free child care would cost the city $6 billion annually.
He has proposed a 2% tax on New York City residents earning more than $1 million a year, and an increase in the state’s corporate tax rate to 11.5% to pay for his proposals. Both tax changes would need approval from state leaders.
The assemblyman has insisted that Albany leaders would be attentive to the benefits his proposals would bring to the city’s residents and that New York’s wealthiest residents and major corporations would benefit if those affordability solutions were in place.
“Mamdani will have an uphill battle given that he’s going to have to make the case to state leaders who are concerned about spending,” Greer said.
Alexis Grenell, the co-founder of Pythia, a political consulting group, told ABC News that since the primary ended, Mamdani has hit the ground running in neighborhoods to pitch his vision for the city.
Grenell, who has not done any consulting work for the Mamdani campaign, said that the biggest part of Mamdani’s appeal has been his active effort to meet people in person, even opponents, and listen to their concerns as he makes his case.
“He actually does mean it when he says he’s listening, and he’s shown it since the primary,” she said.
Grenell added that Mamdani’s messaging draws a sharp contrast from the messaging of his opponents.
Cuomo has recently increased attacks on Mamdani, attacking his political inexperience and has made controversial comments appearing to reference Mamdani’s background as a Muslim.
The former governor has brushed off criticism of his attacks on Mamdani, citing the assemblyman’s comments about the Israeli government committing genocide in Gaza. During a news conference Thursday, Cuomo brought up Mamdani’s appearance on influencer Hasan Piker’s podcast, noting Piker said in 2019 that “America deserved 9/11.”
Piker later said his remarks were inappropriate and meant to be satire.
Mamdani condemned Piker’s comments as “reprehensible” during a debate last week.
“I don’t think Andrew Cuomo has any ideas beyond his revenge campaign,” Grenell said. “I think a lot of New Yorkers are put off by that.”
Sliwa, the founder of the Guardian Angels, a volunteer crime prevention group, has led a campaign focused on public safety.
“New Yorkers do have public safety concerns, but not as much as the concerns about whether they can afford their rent or even a sandwich,” Grenell said.
Making the case to moderates The experts told ABC News that one of Mamdani’s most effective decisions since he won the primary was to actively reach out to prominent moderate and sometimes conservative New York figures to talk about his vision and hear their thoughts.
Mamdani has spoken with many of the city’s major business leaders, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, and discussed his proposals, telling reporters that he wants to address their concerns while also tackling affordability.
“I think he is trying to present a more nuanced persona than he was originally perceived as. He was seen as an activist, and he’s coming off more nuanced,” Turetsky said.
Mamdani has had discussions with former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, one of the city’s wealthiest business owners and a former Republican. Howard Wolfson, one of Bloomberg’s longtime advisers who was in the meeting, told the New York Times the former mayor and Mamdani ” disagreed on several issues,” but had a good meeting.
“I’ve talked to a lot of people after they have been with him, and in a lot of cases, they found him to be a good listener, asked a lot of questions, and gave smart and serious answers on how he will deliver on those commitments,” Lander said.
One of the biggest endorsements that Mamdani has secured since his primary is from Gov. Kathy Hochul, a moderate Democrat who will be a deciding factor in the state funding.
Hochul has been clear that she does not intend to raise taxes on New Yorkers, but she did say that she shares Mamdani’s commitment to expanded child care and bringing costs down.
“So I think there is a path for us to work collaboratively,” the governor said about Mamdani at an Oct. 16 summit on child care.
“There are policies that are troubling to the business community, I understand that, but the candidate has focused intensely on affordability, and that’s not just a buzzword. It’s a call to find meaningful solutions that start meaningful solutions that start changing people’s lives and their perspectives of their lives immediately. And I look forward to working with him on that,” she added.
The experts said that Mamdani’s outreach has also affected his campaigning on his policies.
The assemblyman has indicated in recent interviews that he is open to other ways to fund his proposals that don’t involve raising taxes if a viable option is available.
Mamdani says he plans to keep the current NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch if elected.
“I do think we have to give politicians room to evolve,” Greer said. “That’s what we’re seeing, the maturation of a candidate.”
True tests lie ahead As the campaign winds down, the experts warned that Mamdani will have to prepare himself for the intense scrutiny that awaits him, not only from those opponents but also from his own supporters.
Although the assemblyman has made it clear that his proposals will take time and are not guaranteed to be implemented the way he has planned, New Yorkers typically don’t give incoming mayors a long honeymoon period, Turetsky said.
“His biggest risk is with some of his most loyal and hyped-up supporters. If he can’t deliver major changes in short order, they might be questioning his commitment to his promises,” Turetsky said.
Grenell said a Mamdani administration will have to deal with Trump, who has labeled him a communist and threatened to take away federal funding if the assemblyman wins.
Mamdani has vocally criticized Trump’s controversial mass deportation actions and federal cuts, but has said he would be willing to work with the president if he wants to tackle the affordability crisis.
Grenell said while Trump’s threats are concerning to many New Yorkers, residents are ultimately looking for a mayor who fights for them, and Mamdani has shown his willingness to counter the president if he does anything to hurt the city.
“They know Trump will weaponize Mamdani for his own brutal attacks on the city, but Mamdani is smart and continues to point that out,” she said. “And he’s been able to still stick to the main point at hand, which is affordability.”
(NEW YORK) — For the first time in his presidency, Donald Trump this week imposed new sanctions on Russia in an attempt to push Vladimir Putin to stop his nearly four-year war in Ukraine.
The sanctions target two of Russia’s largest oil companies and their subsidiaries, a move that analysts say is a significant blow to Putin but unlikely to immediately shift his military aims.
“These are tremendous sanctions. These are very big,” Trump said as he confirmed the levies in an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Wednesday.
When asked why he was taking this action now, after months of threats and delayed punitive action against Moscow, Trump said he “felt it was time.”
Trump’s U-turns on Russia-Ukraine diplomacy
The surprise sanctions announcement came after a dizzying week of diplomacy for Trump, who turned his focus back to the conflict in Eastern Europe after securing a fragile ceasefire agreement in the Middle East.
Trump has shifted between support for Russia and support for Ukraine since returning to office, and has often sent mixed messages on what concessions would need to be made by both sides to reach a peace deal.
“I don’t think there’s an overall strategy. I think there’s an overall goal, which has been pretty consistent, which is to stop the fighting and stop the killing,” said William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine under President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama who also served as chargé d’affaires to the country during the first Trump administration.
Trump is now calling for a freeze of the conflict along the current battle lines, a ceasefire proposal that is backed by Ukraine.
One clear trend in Trump’s approach to the war over the past several months, experts said, was a growing frustration with Russia.
“Trump’s rhetoric started to change in the summer when he realized that despite his effort to diplomatically engage with Russia, Putin was not really delivering anything other than smooth talking. Russia, in fact, continued to escalate its attacks on Ukraine,” said Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Amid those tensions, Trump recently said he was considering giving Ukraine access to coveted American-made Tomahawk missiles that would allow Kyiv to strike deeper inside Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Washington to make the case for the military assets last week.
One day before Zelenskyy’s arrival, though, Trump changed his bullish posture after a phone call with Putin. Trump then said he and Putin planned to meet for a second face-to-face meeting.
“Putin has been very skillful in derailing Trump’s intentions to get tough with him. Putin derailed the sanctions when he went to Alaska and he derailed the Tomahawks with a phone call. But it does appear that Trump has figured that out,” said Taylor.
The second Putin summit was called off days after Trump first announced it, as Russia made clear it had no intention to change its goals to erode a sovereign Ukraine. Trump said he canceled the meeting because he didn’t want to have his time “wasted.”
“It seems that was a final blow,” said Snegovaya. “And eventually the administration decided it’s not enough to just use carrots to pressure Putin, you also need sticks. I think [the sanctions are] really long overdue decision but it’s better later than never, and the hope is that it’s just a first step in the overall much needed direction.”
What impact will the sanctions have?
The sanctions hit Open Joint Stock Company Rosneft Oil Company and Lukoil OAO, which are estimated to account for nearly half of all Russian oil production.
The Kremlin waved off the measures, and Putin said they will not “significantly affect our economies.”
Severe sanctions were put in place by the Biden administration and European countries after the start of Russia’s war in 2022, but Russia was largely able to stem the impact on its economy through shadow fleets and other adjustments.
But the economic situation in Russia has worsened in recent months, with declines in oil and fuel export revenues, persistent inflation and lower growth rates.
“These sanctions would be bad news for Putin under any circumstances but at the present moment, they’re more significant than they might otherwise seem,” said Stephen Sestanovich, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who served as the State Department’s ambassador-at-large for the former Soviet Union.
“The past few years they’ve had pretty good economic growth, and so they might not have had this kind of impact then,” Sestanovich said of the new U.S. sanctions. “But right now, this is just one more headache Putin does not need.”
How much these new sanctions hamper Russia will largely dependent on U.S. enforcement, experts said, especially when it comes to secondary sanctions on countries and companies buying Russian oil.
A fuller picture of the effect of the sanctions will emerge when they go into effect on Nov. 21.
“The devil, as usual, is in details,” said Snegovaya.
What next?
Analysts agree that the sanctions are not a silver bullet, and should be paired with more military support and financial support for Ukraine.
“There’s more that’s needed,” said Taylor, the former ambassador to Ukraine. “More sanctions, more weapons and more consistency.”
The European Union joined the U.S. in enacting tougher sanctions on Russia on Thursday, marking the group’s 19th sanctions package against Moscow. On Friday, the United Kingdom called on European allies to send more long-range missiles to Ukraine during a gathering with Zelenskyy in London.
Zelenskyy, for his part, left Washington last week without Tomahawk missiles but said he believed the issue was not entirely off the table.
In the meantime, Russia’s only ramped up its attacks on Ukraine, including an aerial strike on a kindergarten in the eastern city of Kharkiv.
“I think everybody ought to be ready for the Russians to get significantly more brutal in their attacks on Ukraine,” said Sestanovich.
“You have to have a comprehensive approach to dealing with this problem and to make the Russians see that actually, the situation is only going to get worse for them,” Sestanovich said. “The Putin approach has been a patient one and maybe a somewhat self-deluded one, thinking that the moment will come where they can break the Ukrainian lines or Ukrainian morale will sag or Western unity will erode. What you’ve got to do is have a set of policies that make it hard for Putin to kid himself.”
