Whistleblower alleges Twitter deceived regulators on security and spam, Twitter says it’s a ‘false narrative’

Whistleblower alleges Twitter deceived regulators on security and spam, Twitter says it’s a ‘false narrative’
Whistleblower alleges Twitter deceived regulators on security and spam, Twitter says it’s a ‘false narrative’
Onur Dogman/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

(NEW YORK) — Former Twitter head of security, Peiter Zatko, alleged in a whistleblower federal complaint last month that the social media giant had numerous wide-ranging information security system lapses, according to a copy of the complaint made public on Tuesday.

According to the complaint, the company prioritized growth over policing spam and bots on the platform, as some employees stood to receive $10 million bonuses based on increasing daily users.

In response, Twitter blasted Zatko, who worked at the company from November 2020 to January 2022, saying he was spreading a “false narrative about Twitter” and was fired for “ineffective leadership and poor performance.” The company also said Zatko’s public remarks are “riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies and lacks important context.”

In a statement, attorneys representing Katko rebuked the characterization from Twitter.

“Mr. Zatko repeatedly raised concerns about Twitter’s grossly inadequate information security systems to the Company’s Executive Committee and Board of Directors throughout his tenure,” they said.

They also said, “On January 19, 2022, a mere two weeks after Mr. Zatko clashed with Mr. Agrawal and Mr. Kordestani about these issues, Twitter abruptly terminated his employment.”

The complaint, first reported by The Washington Post, becomes public as Tesla CEO Elon Musk — the richest person in the world, according to the Forbes Billionaires list — has sought to terminate his $44 billion bid to acquire Twitter over concerns about spam accounts on the platform.

Twitter sued Musk last month in an attempt to force him to complete his purchase of the company after he declared in early July he was walking away from the deal.

Alex Spiro, an attorney at law firm Quinn Emanuel who represents Musk in that suit, said the firm has subpoenaed Zatko, who goes by the nickname “Mudge.”

“We found his exit and that of other key employees curious in light of what we have been finding,” Spiro said in a statement.

Whistleblower Aid, the lawyers that are representing Zatko, told ABC News in a statement “the disclosure speaks for itself and Mudge stands by everything in it.”

Whistleblower Aid confirmed Zatko’s complaint and the authenticity of the document published by The Washington Post. Zatko sent his complaint in July to the Federal Trade Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice.

The complaint makes a host of allegations about Twitter’s failure to secure its platform.

The complaint alleges that Twitter made false and misleading statements to users and the FTC about the company’s efforts to protect the privacy and integrity of the platform for more than a decade.

In turn, Twitter violated a settlement that the company reached with the FTC in 2011 in which the company agreed to create a “comprehensive information security program,” the complaint says.

According to the complaint, the misleading remarks made by Twitter include a tweet from CEO Parag Agrawal in May, in which he said that the company is “strongly incentivized to detect and remove as much spam as we possibly can.”

A Twitter spokesperson told ABC News: “Mr. Zatko was fired from his senior executive role at Twitter in January 2022 for ineffective leadership and poor performance. What we’ve seen so far is a false narrative about Twitter and our privacy and data security practices that is riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies and lacks important context.”

“Mr. Zatko’s allegations and opportunistic timing appear designed to capture attention and inflict harm on Twitter, its customers and its shareholders. Security and privacy have long been company-wide priorities at Twitter and will continue to be,” the spokesperson added.

The whistleblower complaint is the latest in a series of major developments for Twitter and Musk as they remain locked in a legal dispute over his decision to terminate his acquisition of the company.

Previously, Musk has claimed that Twitter has not provided him with an accurate estimate of the number of bots on the platform. Twitter has rebuked that claim, saying it has provided Musk with information in accordance with conditions set out in the acquisition deal.

Last month, a Delaware court determined that the trial in a lawsuit brought by Twitter against Musk should take place in October, granting an expedited timeline for the case.

Copyright © 2022, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

Whistleblower alleges Twitter deceived regulators on security and spam, Twitter says it’s a ‘false narrative’

Whistleblower alleges Twitter deceived regulators on security and spam, Twitter says it’s a ‘false narrative’
Whistleblower alleges Twitter deceived regulators on security and spam, Twitter says it’s a ‘false narrative’
Onur Dogman/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

(NEW YORK) — Former Twitter head of security, Peiter Zatko, alleged in a whistleblower federal complaint last month that the social media giant had numerous wide-ranging information security system lapses, according to a copy of the complaint made public on Tuesday.

According to the complaint, the company prioritized growth over policing spam and bots on the platform, as some employees stood to receive $10 million bonuses based on increasing daily users.

In response, Twitter blasted Zatko, who worked at the company from November 2020 to January 2022, saying he was spreading a “false narrative about Twitter” and was fired for “ineffective leadership and poor performance.” The company also said Zatko’s public remarks are “riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies and lacks important context.”

In a statement, attorneys representing Katko rebuked the characterization from Twitter.

“Mr. Zatko repeatedly raised concerns about Twitter’s grossly inadequate information security systems to the Company’s Executive Committee and Board of Directors throughout his tenure,” they said.

They also said, “On January 19, 2022, a mere two weeks after Mr. Zatko clashed with Mr. Agrawal and Mr. Kordestani about these issues, Twitter abruptly terminated his employment.”

The complaint, first reported by The Washington Post, becomes public as Tesla CEO Elon Musk — the richest person in the world, according to the Forbes Billionaires list — has sought to terminate his $44 billion bid to acquire Twitter over concerns about spam accounts on the platform.

Twitter sued Musk last month in an attempt to force him to complete his purchase of the company after he declared in early July he was walking away from the deal.

Alex Spiro, an attorney at law firm Quinn Emanuel who represents Musk in that suit, said the firm has subpoenaed Zatko, who goes by the nickname “Mudge.”

“We found his exit and that of other key employees curious in light of what we have been finding,” Spiro said in a statement.

Whistleblower Aid, the lawyers that are representing Zatko, told ABC News in a statement “the disclosure speaks for itself and Mudge stands by everything in it.”

Whistleblower Aid confirmed Zatko’s complaint and the authenticity of the document published by The Washington Post. Zatko sent his complaint in July to the Federal Trade Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice.

The complaint makes a host of allegations about Twitter’s failure to secure its platform.

The complaint alleges that Twitter made false and misleading statements to users and the FTC about the company’s efforts to protect the privacy and integrity of the platform for more than a decade.

In turn, Twitter violated a settlement that the company reached with the FTC in 2011 in which the company agreed to create a “comprehensive information security program,” the complaint says.

According to the complaint, the misleading remarks made by Twitter include a tweet from CEO Parag Agrawal in May, in which he said that the company is “strongly incentivized to detect and remove as much spam as we possibly can.”

A Twitter spokesperson told ABC News: “Mr. Zatko was fired from his senior executive role at Twitter in January 2022 for ineffective leadership and poor performance. What we’ve seen so far is a false narrative about Twitter and our privacy and data security practices that is riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies and lacks important context.”

“Mr. Zatko’s allegations and opportunistic timing appear designed to capture attention and inflict harm on Twitter, its customers and its shareholders. Security and privacy have long been company-wide priorities at Twitter and will continue to be,” the spokesperson added.

The whistleblower complaint is the latest in a series of major developments for Twitter and Musk as they remain locked in a legal dispute over his decision to terminate his acquisition of the company.

Previously, Musk has claimed that Twitter has not provided him with an accurate estimate of the number of bots on the platform. Twitter has rebuked that claim, saying it has provided Musk with information in accordance with conditions set out in the acquisition deal.

Last month, a Delaware court determined that the trial in a lawsuit brought by Twitter against Musk should take place in October, granting an expedited timeline for the case.

Copyright © 2022, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

National Archives letter shows extent of classified material previously at Mar-a-Lago

National Archives letter shows extent of classified material previously at Mar-a-Lago
National Archives letter shows extent of classified material previously at Mar-a-Lago
Rochlin/Getty Images

(WASHINGTON) — Former President Donald Trump allegedly had more than 700 pages of classified material in his possession, according to a May 10 letter from the National Archives to a lawyer representing Trump.

The text of the letter was posted by conservative journalist John Solomon on Monday evening.

The National Archives then posted a link to the letter on its FOIA website early Tuesday afternoon.

The 700 pages of classified material referenced were found in the 15 boxes that the Archives retrieved from Mar-a-Lago in January, according to the letter.

Trump had authorized Solomon as one of his liaisons to the National Archives to review documents from his presidency.

The posted version of the letter confirms ABC News’ previous reporting that documents with the highest levels of classification, including some labeled “Special Access Program” were found.

“As the Department of Justice’s National Security Division explained to you on April 29, 2022: There are important national security interests in the FBI and others in the Intelligence Community getting access to these materials. According to NARA, among the materials in the boxes are over 100 documents with classification markings, comprising more than 700 pages,” the letter reads.

“Some include the highest levels of classification, including Special Access Program (SAP) materials. Access to the materials is not only necessary for purposes of our ongoing criminal investigation, but the Executive Branch must also conduct an assessment of the potential damage resulting from the apparent manner in which these materials were stored and transported and take any necessary remedial steps.”

While Solomon framed this as President Joe Biden taking a more direct role than previously known in Justice Department’s investigation of classified materials at Mar-a-Lago, the letter actually shows how Biden deferred all decisions regarding executive privilege assertions entirely to top DOJ lawyers.

A lawyer for Trump did not respond to a request for comment. The White House did not immediately return ABC’s request for comment.

The letter provides insight into the back and forth between Trump’s team and the National Archives and shows that even though the original 15 boxes were retrieved from Mar-a-Lago in January, federal investigators did not ultimately gain access to them until months later because of negotiations with Trump’s lawyers.

The letter also reveals that DOJ and National Archives determined that there is no basis to assert privilege over the 15 boxes of records obtained.

The letter also makes clear that Trump’s representatives for the Archives must have the proper level of security clearance to review documents they request to review.

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Fentanyl by mail arrest saved ‘millions’ of lives: Police

Fentanyl by mail arrest saved ‘millions’ of lives: Police
Fentanyl by mail arrest saved ‘millions’ of lives: Police
Icy Macload via Getty Images

(NEW YORK) — Authorities said the arrest of Joel Manuel De Jesus Amparo on drug charges may have saved countless lives across the country. 

8,000 fentanyl pills were recovered from packages at post offices on Staten Island where the district attorney said the seizures could “potentially save millions of lives.” 

Prosecutors in Staten Island said each of the pills the New Jersey Man was putting in the mail and sending to recipients across the country “contained enough fentanyl to carry its very own death sentence.”

The pills were made in New Jersey before police and federal investigators said Amparo sent them through the post office to locations nationwide. 

The mass production of fake pills tainted with fentanyl the DEA said is “fueling drug overdoses and poisonings nationwide.” 
 

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Former Tennessee House speaker, chief of staff indicted on corruption charges

Former Tennessee House speaker, chief of staff indicted on corruption charges
Former Tennessee House speaker, chief of staff indicted on corruption charges
Douglas Sacha / Getty Images

A former speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives and his chief of staff were indicted on Tuesday on corruption charges, according to the Justice Department.

The charges allege that former speaker and current State Rep. Glen Casada and his former chief of staff Cade Cothren created a company and a fake persona to receive state funds.

The indictment alleges that Casada and Cothren said the political consulting business they actually owned and profited from was run by a “Matthew Phoenix,” but in reality there was no Matthew Phoenix and the men were profiting by diverting state funds to the business.

Casada, a Republican, said earlier this year he would not seek reelection, had resigned from House leadership in August 2019.

The Justice Department alleges the state mailer program was at the center of the corruption. The program allowed $3,000 to be used for sending constituent mail and said any other expenses could be offset by campaign funds.

“Casada and Individual 4 would and did receive kickbacks from Cothren in exchange for using their positions as members of the Tennessee House of Representatives to perform official acts, including pressuring the Tennessee House Speaker’s Office and other State officials to approve Phoenix Solutions as a Mailer Program vendor and to disburse State funds to Phoenix Solutions,” the indictment said.

Another Tennessee state lawmaker was charged in March with similar crimes, according to DOJ.

They are also charged with bribery and kickbacks concerning programs receiving federal funds, honest services wire fraud; and conspiracy to commit money laundering.

The scheme, DOJ said, also involved other state representatives but they were not named nor charged in court documents, and the scheme went on for almost three years, according to court documents.

Both men were arrested by the FBI at their houses Tuesday morning, the Justice Department said in a release.

In 2020, these companies and Phoenix Solutions received approximately $51,947 from the State in payments associated with the mailer program, DOJ alleges.

The money laundering charges carry a 20-year prison sentence if those indicted are found guilty and the public corruption and bribery charges carry 10-year sentences.

Casada has not returned ABC News request for comment and there was no lawyer listed on the court docket for Cothren.

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Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine 73% effective in children under 5, updated data shows

Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine 73% effective in children under 5, updated data shows
Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine 73% effective in children under 5, updated data shows
Xinhua News Agency / Getty Images

Pfizer released new data Tuesday showing its vaccine continues to reduce the risk of COVID-19 in children ages six months to 4 years-old.

Unlike Moderna’s two-shot vaccine, Pfizer’s vaccine is given as three initial doses for in this age group — considered a “primary” series.

Three doses were 73.2% effective against mild and symptomatic illness from omicron and its subvariants, according to updated data in a Tuesday press release.

Vaccine efficacy is even higher when protecting against severe illness, but the study was not large enough to calculate an exact percentage.

Among children ages 6 through 23 months, the vaccine was 75.8% effective at preventing COVID-19, a median of 1.9 months after the third dose. For children ages 2 through 4 years of age, the vaccine was 71.8% effective at preventing COVID-19, a median of 2.4 months after the third dose.

Sequencing of positive tests found that cases were primarily caused by omicron subvariants, BA.2. Omicron subvariants, BA.4, and BA.5, were just beginning to emerge during the trial, and thus, efficacy results against these strains were inconclusive.

As with doses for adults, officials from Pfizer said they are working with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to prepare an emergency use authorization for an Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent vaccine in children 6 months through 11 years of age.

Three doses of the vaccine continues to “be well-tolerated in this age group,” the company said, and the “majority of adverse events observed in this age group have been mild or moderate, with a safety profile similar to placebo.”

“Building on the strong safety and immunogenicity data that led to FDA authorization of our COVID-19 vaccine for children 6 months through 4 years, we are pleased to share confirmatory evidence that a full course of vaccination helps protect against symptomatic disease, particularly during a time when the Omicron BA.2 strain was predominant,” Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Despite a continued push to get young children vaccinated, the vast majority of children under 5 remain completely unvaccinated.

About 941,000 children, under the age of five, have now received their first shot of a COVID-19 vaccine, new federal data shows. The overall total represents less than 5% or approximately 4.8% of the 19.5 million U.S. children in that age group.

When broken down by age group, data shows that the majority of children under 5 who have received at least one shot are between the ages of 2 and 4. About 682,000 kids, ages 2 to 4, have received their first dose, compared to just 259,000 children under the age of 2.

Overall, although about 29.6 million kids 17 years and younger have received at least one vaccine, approximately 43.4 million eligible children remain completely unvaccinated, according to federal data.

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Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul Pelosi pleads guilty to DUI

Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul Pelosi pleads guilty to DUI
Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul Pelosi pleads guilty to DUI
SOPA Images / Getty Images

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, pleaded guilty Tuesday to DUI causing injury in connection to a May car crash, prosecutors said.

Based on Paul Pelosi’s guilty plea, the second charge — driving with a .08% blood alcohol level or higher causing injury — was dismissed, the Napa County District Attorney’s Office said.

Among the requirements of Judge Joseph Solga’s sentence are: serving five days in jail; paying victim restitution and a court fine; completing a three-month DUI program; and completing three years of probation.

He received credit for four days served: two for the two days he served in jail following his arrest and two days’ time for good conduct. The fifth day of the sentence will be served on a court work program, so the 82-year-old will not serve any more time in jail.

Paul Pelosi was not present in court for Tuesday’s plea; his attorney appeared on his behalf.

The House Speaker’s husband had a 0.082% blood alcohol content when he was arrested on May 28 in Napa County, California, prosecutors said. He was trying to cross State Route 29 when his Porsche was hit by a driver heading north, the California Highway Patrol in Napa said at the time.

 

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Man dies after reportedly chasing dog into traffic, being hit by car

Man dies after reportedly chasing dog into traffic, being hit by car
Man dies after reportedly chasing dog into traffic, being hit by car
Jasmin Merdan / Getty Images

A 33-year-old man is dead after he was fatally struck by a car when he ran into traffic chasing after a dog.

The incident occurred at approximately 1 p.m. on Monday afternoon in Kingsport, Tennessee — about 100 miles northeast of Knoxville — when the Kingsport Police Department Traffic Unit responded to a call regarding a motor vehicle striking a pedestrian as it travelled north on Lynn Garden Drive, authorities said.

“A light blue 2020 Honda Odyssey minivan, driven and solely occupied by [a male driver] of Kingsport, appears to have been traveling lawfully northbound on Lynn Garden Drive, when a pedestrian, Gordon Gale Johnson of Kingsport, suddenly ran into the roadway, directly into its path, chasing after a dog,” read a statement released by the Kingsport Police Department following the incident.

It was initially reported that 33-year-old Gordon Gale Johnson was taken by Sullivan County EMS to a local area hospital to be treated for his injuries but police confirmed that he had died several hours later from injuries sustained in the crash with 49-year-old driver. Police say that the man was unable to avoid a collision and that he was uninjured in the collision with Johnson.

It is unclear if the dog belonged to Johnson or what the circumstances were surrounding the incident and how the dog managed to get loose in the first place.

The accident now remains under open and active investigation by the Kingsport Police Department Traffic Unit and no further details are expected to be released until authorities conclude their investigation.

 

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K-9 helps find missing teenager in North Carolina: ‘We’re just really thankful’

K-9 helps find missing teenager in North Carolina: ‘We’re just really thankful’
K-9 helps find missing teenager in North Carolina: ‘We’re just really thankful’
Brett Carlsen / Getty Images

A K-9 in North Carolina helped locate a missing teenage boy who had run away from home earlier this month.

Maverick, a 2-year-old English Labrador retriever, who is trained in tracking, quickly sought out the child in a wooded area in Union County, North Carolina, which is southeast of Charlotte, according to the Union County Sheriff’s Office.

It took the dog and his handler, Deputy Josh Dye, less than an hour to find the teenager near U.S. Highway 601 on Aug. 1, after the boy’s family reported him missing.

Maverick knows how to put his sense of smell to work when it comes to track work, according to Lt. James M. Maye, a public information officer for the sheriff’s office.

“These tracking canines – primarily bloodhounds and Maverick – they use what we call a scent article and it’s something that a person has lived with, such as clothing that has their scent on that,” Maye said in an interview with “Good Morning America.” “In this case, this article that was used was a blanket that this juvenile had used, slept with, laid around the house with, so it was obviously saturated with the scent most associated with him.”

“When you’re walking down the road or walking down a path, you leave scent behind. And so Maverick picked up on that scent and was able to track it,” Maye told “GMA.”

The sheriff’s office celebrated Maverick’s quick work in a Facebook post, calling the dog a “huge asset” to the sheriff’s office.

“We’re just really thankful that this situation turned out great and that all the training that they do every day was put into use and then it worked just like it was supposed to,” Maye said.

Maverick was donated to the Union County Sheriff’s Office last December and, according to Maye, has quickly become an “office favorite.”

“He brightens up the mood every time he’s in the office. We’re just extremely proud of him,” Maye said.

Maverick is also trained in narcotics detection and often works with children at local schools, according to Maye. He is one of 13 K-9s with the department and the other sheriff’s dogs include a Black lab, some German shepherds, bloodhounds and Malinois.

Dye, who lives with Maverick and has been his handler since March, told “GMA” that the English lab in particular is “very friendly [and] very goofy at times.”

The teen’s family declined to comment for this story, according to Maye.

 

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Half-a-year into Russia’s invasion, what a possible endgame in Ukraine could look like

Half-a-year into Russia’s invasion, what a possible endgame in Ukraine could look like
Half-a-year into Russia’s invasion, what a possible endgame in Ukraine could look like
Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Wednesday marks six months since Russia invaded Ukraine.

In the months since Russia’s blitzkrieg attack from the north and east, which was met with a stronger-than-expected resistance from the outmanned and outgunned Ukrainians, the evolving conflict has become more of a “static war” with no clear winners, according to ABC News contributor retired Col. Steve Ganyard.

“At this stage, both countries, both Ukraine and Russia, seem to be losing,” Ganyard said. “And now the fight is obviously who can lose first and who will have to lose last.”

It’s impossible to predict how much longer the war will last — it could be months or even years, Ganyard said.

“This is a war that’s unfolding at this point very, very slowly,” he said. “Neither side has the ability to conduct significant offensive operations.”

How long the fighting continues until one side “loses first” will likely depend on a few factors.

For Russia, getting troops on the ground to maintain the territory it’s taken is one, as recruiting personnel has been a challenge, Ganyard said.

The Russian military hasn’t given an official update on casualties since late March, when it reported around 1,350. One U.S. Department of Defense official estimated earlier this month that at least 70,000 Russians have been killed or wounded since the start of the war.

“There’s a lot of fog in war, but, you know, I think it’s safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months,” Colin Kahl, the undersecretary for defense for policy at the Department of Defense, told reporters.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a “very difficult chore” to recruit qualified military personnel to fight in Ukraine, Ganyard said.

“The Russians are basically recruiting out of prisons at this point,” he said. “They have not mobilized the whole nation.”

The number of Ukrainian soldiers killed since Feb. 24 is classified, but deputy minister of defense Hanna Maliar has said there are “thousands.” There have also been thousands of civilian casualties; the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights estimates that over 5,500 have been killed and over 7,600 injured in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

For Ukraine, continued support from the West will be key, Ganyard said, including supplies of precision weapons such as the long-range High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARs, which Ukrainian forces have used to wear down Russians in rear areas.

“The ability for the Ukrainians to target very precise locations — command posts, supply depots — this allows the Ukrainians to begin to attrite and wear down the Russians in their rear areas, take away the supplies that they’re using to conduct this war,” Ganyard said.

This development is “unprecedented” so far in the conflict, he said.

“Up to this point, the war had been basically a slugfest — artillery against artillery,” he said. “But now that the Ukrainians have this long-range capability where they can hit very precise coordinates, it gives them an offensive advantage.”

Though as the conflict continues, there is a risk for Ukraine that Western support could wane as the impacts of the war, such as from energy supplies in Europe, are felt in the months ahead, he said.

How much more of a beating their contracted economies can withstand will be a factor for both countries, Ganyard said.

“As we see both economies get drawn down, as we see both militaries being punished and diminished, it’s going to be a question of who can survive and who can lose last,” he said.

Morale also continues to be crucial, with Ukraine buoyed by its offensive advantage while Russia looks to hold ground in hostile territory, he said.

For Kahl, “Ukrainian morale and will to fight is unquestioned and much higher, I think, than the average morale and will to fight on the Russian side,” he told reporters. “I think that gives the Ukrainians a significant advantage.”

With those factors in consideration, there are several ways the conflict could potentially play out:

Russia holds ground in Donbas, Ukraine relinquishes territory

In a “best-case scenario” for Russia, its troops will continue to gain incrementally in the Donbas and hold their ground against Ukrainian forces, Ganyard said. If Ukraine doesn’t have the arsenal to push back or can’t hold out amid a downhill economy, that could put them in a position to sue for peace, he said.

“Where the Russians are pushing in from the east toward the west, that is the bread basket of Ukraine,” Ganyard said. “That is where not only most of the industry is, but it’s where most of the agriculture, very rich agricultural area, all of that gets transported down the Dnipro River.

“If Russia would be able to hang on to that, it would almost cut Ukraine in half, and certainly cut the Ukrainian economy by more than half,” he continued.

Ukraine regains territory in the Donbas, Russia cuts its losses

If Ukraine manages to recapture some of the territory in the Donbas claimed by Russian forces since the invasion started, that could pressure Putin to end the invasion to stave off further embarrassment, Ganyard said.

“If he began to lose, if he began to take even heavier losses, if the Ukrainians were able to recapture parts of Ukraine that the Russians have taken, at some point Putin may decide to cut his losses and declare victory and take whatever’s left on the table in terms of the territory that he’s taken thus far,” Ganyard said.

Ukraine regains territory in the Donbas, Russia escalates

Alternately, Putin may push back against the political embarrassment of losing territory it had gained since the start of the invasion, Ganyard said.

“The more gains that the Ukrainians make, it’s actually going to make the whole situation more dangerous because Putin may react in a way that escalates to de-escalate,” Ganyard said. “We’ve heard that term in the past, and usually that refers to the use of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons.

“The danger here is if the Ukrainians continue to do better, what does Putin do to save himself to save his beloved, domestic political position?” he continued. “Does he do something that would shock the whole world and try to scare the Ukrainians into an early surrender?”

Ukraine pushes south, putting pressure on Putin

Kherson, a port city on the north of the Crimean Peninsula, was the first major city to fall after Russia launched its invasion. The city is key to Ukraine for its access to the Black Sea and ability to move goods. If Ukraine manages to make ground and pushes past Kherson and threatens Russia-annexed Crimea, that could give Ukraine a negotiating advantage, Ganyard said.

“[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will continue to try to threaten Crimea to be able to pressure Putin,” he said.

That could look like threatening to turn off the freshwater supplies into Crimea, he said.

“There’s all sorts of unknowns here about what happens,” Ganyard said. “As they go into the fall and into the winter, there may be some movement in terms of the negotiations. But at this point, neither side can afford to give up the kinds of military actions that we see on the ground to this point.”

 

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