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(WASHINGTON) — The House will vote at noon on Tuesday to determine who its next speaker will be — though it’s possible the vote will initially spark more questions than answers.

House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy of California is making his second run at the speakership, but he is facing resistance from enough hardliners in his party that he could fail to seize the gavel.

Republicans, after a disappointing midterm cycle, will initially hold a narrow 222-212 majority in the next House, with one vacancy. That means McCarthy will need 218 votes if all members-elect are present and can only afford four GOP defections — and he’s currently facing five hard “no” votes along with other Republican skeptics.

The Californian has already offered significant concessions, though it remains unclear how the final votes will tally.

The House can conduct no other business until they choose a speaker, however.

Here’s how the vote — or, potentially, the multiple votes — will play out:

How is the House speaker elected?

The speaker is elected after receiving a numerical majority of those present and voting. Just after the opening of the new Congress on Tuesday, the House clerk will read the official number of certificates of election received, which is used to determine a majority.

A simple majority of the 434 House members-elect who could be available to vote on Tuesday would be 218 votes. However, that number could change if any members are absent or if some vote “present” instead of for a specific person, which would leave them out of the arithmetic used to choose the House speaker.

Voice votes are typically used, rather than paper or electronic ballots.

Who conducts the vote?

The House clerk conducts the vote.

The current clerk is Cheryl L. Johnson, who was sworn in by outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Johnson will remain the clerk until the GOP selects a new one.

What if McCarthy can’t get the votes and there’s no speaker?

If McCarthy is not successful on the first ballot, Johnson will likely repeat the roll call voice vote. Multiple ballots could be called until there is majority support for one person.

However, if McCarthy is unable to get enough votes on multiple ballots, the House could adjourn without a speaker.

If the process goes on long enough, the House could approve a resolution to green-light a speaker by a plurality — as happened in 1856, after some two months and 133 ballots — but that could pose danger to Republicans given their divisions and narrow majority.

What can happen in the House before there’s a speaker?

Essentially nothing.

The House votes for speaker before rules are set for the next Congress, so everything from swearing-in lawmakers to voting on legislation to setting up key committees will be put on hold until that is resolved.

Unless a House majority moves otherwise, all that would be allowed to happen is for Johnson, the clerk, to keep calling votes for speaker, and Johnson would remain clerk for the entirety of the process until a speaker is chosen.

Such a scenario would likely be an embarrassment to the incoming Republican majority, who will govern the chamber with a narrow hold while seeking to be a check on Senate Democrats and the White House, whom they hope to investigate.

A contentious speaker vote that leads to gridlock could also be a preview of Republican struggles to pass government funding and deal with the government’s debt limit, which are key obligations of Congress but which divide some conservatives.

Who doesn’t support McCarthy

The five members who have said they won’t vote for McCarthy are Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, who has announced a rival speaker bid; Matt Gaetz of Florida; Bob Good of Virginia; Matt Rosendale of Montana and Ralph Norman of South Carolina.

In addition, nine other Republicans say they aren’t yet convinced McCarthy should be speaker: Reps. Dan Bishop of North Carolina; Andrew Clyde of Georgia; Eli Crane of Arizona; Paul Gosar of Arizona; Andy Harris of Maryland; Scott Perry of Pennsylvania and Chip Roy of Texas. Reps.-elect Anna Paulina Luna of Florida and Andy Ogles of Tennessee are also among this group.

What is their objection?

Broadly speaking, the members who have vowed not to back McCarthy have instead backed a set of demands that aim to shrink the power of the speaker — and, as a result, increase the influence of other members. Among these stipulations is for an easier-to-use “motion to vacate the chair” to vote to remove the speaker.

The lawmakers have also sought a ban on leadership getting involved in primary elections.

Still, McCarthy has majority Republican support

Almost all of the GOP conference supports McCarthy for speaker, as seen when he won 188 votes last month to be the Republican nominee, despite Biggs’ opposition.

“I think he’s well situated to win the speakership and have it for the term. I don’t think it’ll be difficult. He has raised a record revenue for the party. He is great at fundraising. He’s been all over the country,” one House Republican told ABC News in October. “He’s earned it.”

If not McCarthy, then who?

There have been some rumors that McCarthy’s No. 2, Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise, who has been supportive of McCarthy for speaker, is ready if an alternative is needed.

While Scalise continues to back McCarthy, multiple sources told ABC News that if that scenario presents itself, Scalise would be open to launching a speakership bid and that some of McCarthy’s critics are more open to Scalise winning the gavel.

Conservative critics of McCarthy have floated the idea of rallying around Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, a co-founder of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus, though Jordan confirmed Monday he’s supporting McCarthy and is seeking to chair the House Judiciary Committee.

Is there any historical precedent for this?

The speakership vote is often an uneventful one, wrapping up neatly on the first day of a new Congress. However, the vote has at times taken multiple ballots.

The most recent vote to take more than one ballot occurred in 1923, when Fredrick Huntington Gillet became speaker after nine rounds.

But the longest vote occurred in 1856, when the speakership wasn’t decided until after 133 ballots.

The process, which took two months, catapulted Nathaniel Prentice Banks of Massachusetts to the speakership after he had only served one House term — though a resolution required the House to allow him to win with a plurality, only the second time members had made such a change.

A member of the American Party, he served just two years as speaker.

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(WASHINGTON) — Nearly two years after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol — a deadly riot that saw hundreds of people overwhelm law enforcement, sending lawmakers temporarily into lockdown — Police Chief Tom Manger is outlining what the agency has done to improve security.

In a letter to Congress on Monday, Manger said his force had made 100 “significant improvements” after the insurrection, such as bringing in a new special events coordinator, hiring a new intelligence information coordinator and enhancing the civil disturbance unit, among other changes.

“Make no mistake, there is still work to be done,” he said. “The current threat climate, particularly against elected officials, will require continued and heightened vigilance.”

Still, he vowed, “We will do everything possible to fulfill our mission of protecting the Members of Congress, the Capitol Complex and the legislative process. Our dedicated and courageous men and women take on this responsibility every day.”

Manger was brought on shortly after the Jan. 6 attack — with promises to reform the agency.

The Capitol Police’s inspector general, Michael Bolton, found last year that the agency was ill-equipped to handle the riot that day, had faulty equipment and did not share intelligence.

“Training deficiencies put officers, our brave men and women, in a position not to succeed,” he testified in the House in April 2021.

According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, 114 Capitol Police officers were injured on Jan. 6.

The watchdog also found that officers felt unprepared to handle the crowd that swarmed the complex, many of whom were armed — with pistols, rifles, bear spray and flagpoles, according to testimony heard during the House Jan. 6 hearings.

The Capitol Police union has also long complained that the agency has suffered from understaffing.

Manger said Monday they are working to address that issue, too.

“Perhaps most important, the United States Capitol Police is successfully recruiting and training new police officers at a rate that will, in the next several months, put us above our pre-pandemic and pre-January 6 staffing levels,” he said. “This success comes at a time when most law enforcement agencies are struggling to bring on additional officers.”

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(WASHINGTON) — As the 118th Congress prepares to be sworn in after members convene on Tuesday, Republican leaders in the House have declined to comment on George Santos, an incoming lawmaker who has acknowledged lying or embellishing details of his work experience, educational history and his Jewish ancestry.

He has faced scrutiny about other parts of his background, including what financial records from 2020 to 2022 show was a sudden increase in his wealth. Prosecutors say they are looking into him as well, though none have accused him of wrongdoing.

Santos, who won the seat in New York’s 3rd Congressional District formerly represented by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, has said he will not resign and will instead strive to serve effectively in Congress.

He’s cast his past statements as more routine exaggerations and said the details of his work history were “debatable.”

“I believe that in order to move past this and move forward … I have to face my mistakes and I’m facing them,” Santos said in an interview on Fox News last week.

“I’m not a fraud. I’m not a fake,” he added.

Privately, Santos has told local leaders he will not seek reelection in 2024, according to the Nassau County Republican Chairman Joseph G. Cairo Jr., who is in Santos’ district.

An ABC News journalist on Capitol Hill on Monday saw that a name plate for Santos has been put up next to his future office, although a Hill worker said that freshman representatives will not be able to access their offices until Tuesday.

After a New York Times report last month questioned significant parts of Santos’ biography — which had also been investigated by a local paper — further discrepancies have emerged.

Santos has now said he spoke incorrectly about attending Baruch College and working directly for Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. In the latter case, he says that a firm he claimed employed him did business with those two companies.

A spokesperson for an elite private school in New York City, Horace Mann, contradicted Santos’ claim of attending the institution. IRS records undercut his past claim of running a charity and he has said conflicting things about his mother’s death, which he has linked to 9/11.

Santos told The New York Post last week that he didn’t actually own any property, despite identifying himself on Twitter last year as a “landlord.”

The New York Times further reported on Sunday that Santos’ mother, Fatima Devolder, was known by his friends as a cook and house cleaner, contrary to Santos’ claims that she worked as a finance executive.

An attorney for Santos, Joseph Murray, initially pushed back on the questions over his background as “defamatory,” claiming it was a biased smear. Murray has since referred ABC News to Santos’ press team, who has not responded to multiple requests for comment.

Republican leaders Kevin McCarthy, Elise Stefanik and Steve Scalise have remained silent on Santos and have not responded to ABC News’ inquiries.

However, a rules package released by the House GOP on Sunday would require the ethics committee to establish “a process to receive complaints directly from the public.” That could be notable in the context of Santos: If Republican leaders do not refer him to the committee themselves, the public could lodge complaints against him.

GOP leadership is also grappling with Tuesday’s vote to elect the next speaker of the House. Republicans will control the chamber with 222 seats and Kevin McCarthy of California will need 218 votes to win the gavel. Santos’ vote could make a difference.

Santos has been defended by some future colleagues, like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. But other prominent Republicans have criticized him.

Retiring Texas Rep. Kevin Brady said on “Fox News Sunday” that he believes Santos “is going to have to consider resigning.”

“He’s got really two choices here … one, he can try to politically ride it out. We’ve seen that happen in Washington, D.C. Or he can take the tougher choice, which is, I think, look, own every lie that he’s made and apologize to everyone and anyone for as long as it takes,” Brady said.

Santos’ fellow New York congressman-elect Nick LaLota released a statement asking the ethics committee to investigate.

“House Republicans like me are eager to be sworn in and focus on our commitment to America and our respective districts. Yet over the last few weeks, I have heard from countless Long Islanders how deeply troubled they are by the headlines surrounding George Santos,” LaLota said last week.

“As a Navy man who campaigned on restoring accountability and integrity to our government, I believe a full investigation by the House Ethics Committee and, if necessary, law enforcement, is required,” he said.

Outgoing Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a former House member himself, told ABC’s “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl on Sunday that what Santos did “is unacceptable.”

“I don’t know whether you can go so far as to not seat him but certainly the ethics committee should deal with this, and he has to be held accountable for that,” Hutchinson said.

House members may be removed by expulsion, which would require a two-thirds vote. Democratic leaders have suggested such a move would rest with McCarthy. A majority of representatives could also censure Santos, or Republicans could keep him off committees — a major source of legislative power.

In a statement on Friday, the Republican Jewish Coalition criticized Santos for exaggerating his Jewish ancestry.

His campaign has said his maternal grandparents fled persecution during World War II and resettled in Brazil, though genealogical records show otherwise. Santos, who is Catholic, told The New York Post last week that he meant he was “Jew-ish” through his mother’s family.

“He deceived us and misrepresented his heritage. In public comments and to us personally he previously claimed to be Jewish. He has begun his tenure in Congress on a very wrong note. He will not be welcome at any future RJC event,” the group wrote.

ABC News’ Hannah Demissie, Gabe Ferris, Lalee Ibssa, Aaron Katersky, Lauren Peller and Will Steakin contributed to this report.

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McCarthy, who has been the top House Republican since 2019, is backed by a majority of his conference, some of whom say no one else is better for the role. But his long-held aspirations to wield the gavel are being obstructed by a small group of Republicans who say they are intent on withholding their support in exchange for concessions that would limit a speaker’s power — and thus increase the influence of other members.

Five Republicans have outright said they won’t support McCarthy during the vote for speaker on Tuesday.

Nine others have said they remain unconvinced, even after McCarthy gave ground on some demands such as making it easier to remove a sitting speaker, sources told ABC News.

The Californian’s footing is weaker than his party expected after Republicans emerged from the midterm election with a 222-212 majority, with one vacancy. McCarthy must win the majority of representatives who cast a ballot for speaker on Tuesday, excluding those who vote “present.”

Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., a McCarthy critic, told Fox News on Monday that he anticipates “10 to 15” Republicans will vote against McCarthy during the first ballot, a number he suggested could rise in subsequent rounds.

“I think you’ll see on the second ballot an increasing number of members vote for a true candidate who can represent the conservative center of the conference, can motivate the base,” Good said.

In a conference call on Sunday, McCarthy said he would support lowering the threshold to trigger a vote to oust a speaker, sources said. During the call, he said he would accept allowing just five members to bring what is known as a motion to vacate, a tool that was used to help oust then-Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, in 2015. Current GOP rules require half of House Republicans to support such a move before a vote is held.

Also, a rules package Republicans released on Sunday details expanded oversight of the Biden administration, which is a major conservative priority. Under the rules, once adopted, the House will establish a select committee on the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the virus’ origins, the government’s response, the development of vaccines and treatments and corresponding mandates for federal employees.

The rules package also includes language for the creation of a select panel under the House Judiciary Committee to focus on “strategic competition” between the U.S. and China’s government as well as the “weaponization of the federal government,” a seeming reference to Republican criticism of the Biden administration’s handling of some figures like Donald Trump.

Still, McCarthy doesn’t yet appear to have the necessary support. The five lawmakers who have vowed to vote against him showed no signs of budging as of Monday, and nine other Republicans released a letter suggesting his compromises didn’t go far enough.

“Despite some progress achieved, Mr. McCarthy’s statement comes almost impossibly late to address continued deficiencies ahead of the opening of the 118th Congress on January 3rd,” the group wrote in a letter obtained by ABC News.

While McCarthy may be able to garner more backing during a closed-door conference meeting at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, shortly before the speaker vote begins at noon, his detractors are boasting that they’ll be able to muster the necessary opposition to block him.

“We may see the cherry blossoms bloom in Washington, D.C. before a Speaker is elected,” Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., a McCarthy critic, has said.

Those opposed to McCarthy may be able to deny or delay him the speakership, but they are drastically outnumbered by Republicans who say they support him, including Trump and other prominent lawmakers.

The group of so-called “only Kevin” members have said they won’t consider voting for anyone else.

A drawn-out speakership vote would make some history — and be a repeat of McCarthy’s 2015 speakership bid, which was sunk when McCarthy realized he didn’t have the support of a small but necessary group of Republicans.

The last time it took more than one ballot to elect a speaker was exactly 100 years ago, when Fredrick Huntington Gillet won out after nine rounds of votes.

The House can conduct no other business until it has selected its speaker. Some who are backing McCarthy stress this point: that a prolonged or chaotic speaker vote prevents Republicans from governing and implementing what they campaigned on.

There have been rumors that Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., McCarthy No. 2 and one of his supporters, could ultimately run for speaker. Multiple sources told ABC News that Scalise would be open to a speakership run if McCarthy’s candidacy becomes nonviable and that some in the GOP minority opposed to McCarthy have made it known to Scalise that they would support him.

Among more centrist members, talk has continued of finding a compromise candidate with Democrats — a possibility Democratic leadership has played down — if McCarthy can’t corral the necessary support within his own party.

“I will support Kevin McCarthy, but if we do get to that point, I do want the country to work and we need to govern. We can’t sit neutral; we can’t have total gridlock for two years,” Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., told NBC News in November.

McCarthy is already residing in the speaker’s office on Capitol Hill as his party prepares to enter the majority. He was seen meeting there on Monday with some two dozen representatives, including those publicly opposed to him as speaker like Gaetz.

As Rep. Jordan walked into the McCarthy meeting he was asked if he would run for speaker if McCarthy couldn’t get the votes. “No,” he said. “I want to be chair of judiciary.” 

Asked by reporters earlier on Monday how he felt about the upcoming speaker vote, McCarthy replied: “Hope you all have a nice New Year’s.”

ABC News’ Lalee Ibssa contributed to this report.

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