Texas man believed to be witness now arrested for murder in apparent road rage shooting

Texas man believed to be witness now arrested for murder in apparent road rage shooting
Texas man believed to be witness now arrested for murder in apparent road rage shooting
Oliver Helbig/Getty Images

(SELMA, Texas) — A man initially interviewed as a witness at the scene of a murder has now been arrested over a year later in the apparent road rage slaying, authorities in Texas announced.

Jacob Daniel Serna, 29, was arrested on Thursday for the murder of Joseph Banales, according to police in Selma, located about 20 miles outside of San Antonio.

The case began on April 15, 2023, when Selma police said they responded to a single-car crash and found Banales shot in the head and slumped over his steering wheel.

Banales, a nursing student and Army ROTC member at the University of the Incarnate Word in San Antonio, was declared dead at the scene, police said.

Witnesses said Banales tried to merge into another lane and almost hit a dark blue or black sports car with a loud exhaust system, according to the probable cause affidavit. The sports car slowed down, then spend up along the driver’s side of Banales’ car, witnesses said. Then Banales’ car swerved into another lane and crashed into the center median, and the sports car fled, according to the probable cause affidavit.

Banales was on the phone with his girlfriend at the time; she told police she heard what sounded like a loud exhaust system driving by quickly, then a crash, the document said.

Serna and his wife were at the scene when officers arrived, police said. Officer dashboard camera captured Serna standing over Banales’ body, the probable cause affidavit said.

Serna — who drove a blue Ford Mustang sports car — and his wife were interviewed several times, and their stories changed over time, according to police.

Initially, Serna’s wife told police she saw a blue sports car — similar to the color of their car — in the lane next to Banales, the probable cause affidavit said. Serna told police he didn’t see anything and his wife saw the crash, according to the probable cause affidavit.

This July, police interviewed Serna’s wife again. The Sernas are now separated, according to the probable cause affidavit, and she said her husband had sped up to get a better look at the potential suspect’s car, but the suspect’s car was driving too fast, and that’s when the crash happened, the document said.

On Thursday, police interviewed Serna’s wife again. She admitted her husband shot the victim after her husband “became angry that Banales had nearly changed lanes into his blue Mustang,” police said in a statement on Friday.

She said her husband pulled his pistol out of the glove box, loaded the weapon and fired, according to the probable cause affidavit.

She said she made her husband turn around and drive back to the scene, according to the probable cause affidavit.

During the investigation, police zeroed-in on cellphone records to help determine “who could have been driving a blue sports car at the crime scene,” police said in a statement.

The probe, which included searching license plate reader databases, “revealed only one vehicle matching the description of a blue sports car with loud exhaust” — Serna’s car, police said.

“Google Geo-Fence records show Serna’s Google activity pinging in the area at the same time investigators believe the shooting happened,” police added.

Serna has been booked into the Bexar County Jail, police said.

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Three Mile Island, site of 1979 nuclear reactor accident, reopening to power AI

Three Mile Island, site of 1979 nuclear reactor accident, reopening to power AI
Three Mile Island, site of 1979 nuclear reactor accident, reopening to power AI
Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

(HARRISBURG, Penn.) — Three Mile Island, the shuttered Pennsylvania nuclear power plant that was the site of a 1979 reactor accident that remains the worst commercial nuclear power plant accident in U.S. history, is reopening to generate power for artificial intelligence.

Constellation Energy will restart Three Mile Island Unit 1, one of the facility’s pressurized water reactors, for the launch of the Crane Clean Energy Center, which will generate nuclear energy purchased by Microsoft to power the company’s AI data center, the companies announced on Friday.

Under the agreement between the two companies, Microsoft will purchase energy from the plant as part of its goal to help power its data centers with carbon-free energy.

“This agreement is a major milestone in Microsoft’s efforts to help decarbonize the grid in support of our commitment to become carbon negative. Microsoft continues to collaborate with energy providers to develop carbon-free energy sources to help meet the grids’ capacity and reliability needs,” said Microsoft Vice President of Energy Bobby Hollis in a statement.

The power purchase agreement “makes sense” because it ensures a stable revenue source for the power plant while providing 24/7 emission-free electricity for the data center, Jacopo Buongiorno, professor of nuclear science and engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), told ABC News.

The move is also “further confirmation” of the economic and environmental value of using existing nuclear power plants to meet decarbonization goals in the U.S., Buongiorno said.

“Since building a new nuclear power plant can be so time consuming and expensive, extending the license of current plants or refurbishing and restarting those that have been recently shutdown is a very attractive proposition,” Buongiorno said via email.

The Crane Clean Energy Center (CCEC) is expected to create 3,400 direct and indirect jobs and add more than 800 megawatts of carbon-free electricity to the grid, according to a study commissioned by the Pennsylvania Building & Construction Trades Council.

“The CCEC will support thousands of family-sustaining jobs for decades to come,” said Rob Bair, president of the Pennsylvania State Building and Construction Trades Council, in a statement. “It will help make Pennsylvania a leader in attracting and retaining the types of reliable, clean energy jobs that will define the future.”

Three Mile Island, located on the Susquehanna River near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, was shuttered in 2019 for economic reasons, according to Constellation Energy. Owner Exelon Corp said in 2017 that the closing was due to lack of financial rescue from the state.

On March 28, 1979, the Unit 2 reactor core at the Three Mile Island plant partially melted down when equipment malfunctions, compounded by human operator errors, caused a water pump failure that resulted in a loss of coolant to the reactor, according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

The Unit 1 reactor is adjacent to Unit 2, which was shut down after the 1979 accident and is in the process of being decommissioned by its owner, Energy Solutions, according to Constellation Energy.

Public support for the restart of Three Mile Island is strong, with residents favoring it by a more than 2-1 margin, as long as funding for the restart doesn’t require increased taxes or electricity rates, according to a recent poll conducted by Susquehanna Polling & Research.

The nuclear energy industry plays a “critical role” in providing safe and reliable carbon-free energy, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said in a statement.

“My Administration will continue to work to cut energy costs and ensure the reliability of our energy grid so that Pennsylvanians can have access to affordable power made right here in Pennsylvania for years to come – and the Crane Clean Energy Center will help us achieve those goals,” Shapiro said.

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Son arrested in the murder of his father, stepmom and stepbrother: Police

Son arrested in the murder of his father, stepmom and stepbrother: Police
Son arrested in the murder of his father, stepmom and stepbrother: Police
Catherine Falls Commercial/Getty Images

(PAWLET, Vt.) — A son has been arrested for the murder of his father, his father’s wife and her teenage son, who were found shot to death at their Vermont home, police announced Friday.

The triple homicide was discovered early Sunday. Officers responded to a report of a “suspicious person” and the investigation led them to a home in the town of Pawlet, Vermont State Police said.

Inside they found the three deceased victims — Brian Crossman Sr., 46, who was a Pawlet government official; his wife, Erica Crossman, 41; and her son and his stepson, Colin Taft, 13, police said. They were killed sometime early Sunday morning inside their home, police said.

Crossman Sr.’s son — Brian Crossman Jr., 23, of Granville, New York — now faces counts of aggravated murder in connection with the fatal shootings of his father, stepmother and stepbrother, Vermont State Police said Friday.

“The Vermont State Police investigation identified significant evidence that linked Crossman Jr. to the killings, including digital information, statements, injuries, and various interviews,” Vermont State Police said in a statement.

New York State Police located Crossman Jr. and took him into custody. He is being detained without bail pending an appearance before a judge in New York to initiate proceedings for his extradition to Vermont, police said.

Police have not released any details on an alleged motive in the killings.

He was set to appear in court in Glens Falls, New York, Friday afternoon. It is unclear if he has an attorney at this time.

It is unclear when he will return to Vermont, police said.

All three family members died from gunshot wounds and their deaths have been ruled as homicides by the Vermont Chief Medical Examiner’s Office, police said. Crossman Sr. was shot in the head and torso, Erica Crossman was shot in the head and her son had multiple gunshot wounds, police said.

Crossman Sr. had joined the Pawlet Select Board this year, where he served as a liaison to buildings and development and to the town’s highway department, according to the town’s website.

Pawlet Select Board Chair Mike Beecher remembered him as a “friend and neighbor” and a “hardworking community member.”

“This tragedy that struck him and his family has also hit our community hard, and we are shaken and grieving,” Beecher said in a statement Tuesday. “Our hearts go out to everyone affected by this devastating loss. The town of Pawlet will work to get through this as we always get through hard times, by supporting each other and doing our best to carry on.”

Pawlet, a town of about 1,400 people, is located in western Vermont on the New York state line.

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Eight firefighters hurt, two critically, in fire truck rollover crash while returning from California wildfire

Eight firefighters hurt, two critically, in fire truck rollover crash while returning from California wildfire
Eight firefighters hurt, two critically, in fire truck rollover crash while returning from California wildfire
KABC

(IRVINE, Calif.) — Eight firefighters were hurt — including two critically — when the fire truck they were in rolled over while returning from a 12-hour shift battling the Airport Fire wildfire, one of several large blazes raging in Southern California, officials said.

The truck crashed on State Route 241 in Irvine just before 7 p.m. Thursday, Orange County Fire Authority Chief Brian Fennessy said.

The California Highway Patrol told ABC Los Angeles station KABC that a car in front of the truck swerved to avoid hitting a ladder that was in one of the lanes, causing the fire truck to swerve, lose control and overturn after hitting the guard rail. No other cars were involved in the crash, Fennessy said.

Six firefighters were taken to trauma centers in conditions ranging from “stable to critical,” Fennessy said at a news conference Friday. Two firefighters were treated at Hoag Hospital Irvine and have since been released, he said.

Of the six taken to trauma centers, two were admitted in critical condition and are in the intensive care unit on Friday, Dr. Humberto Sauri told reporters. One is considered “critical but stable” and the other’s condition is “quite critical,” he said.

Four of the eight firefighters “are more seriously injured than the others,” Fennessy said.

Fennessy called the crash “devastating” and a “huge tragedy for our family.”

Firefighters have been battling the Airport Fire “non-stop” since Sept. 9, Fennessy said.

He said this team of firefighters was responsible for removing fuel from the path of fire.

The crash remains under investigation by the highway patrol.

Fennessy said, “What I’ve heard was that the crew carrier, you know, the crew buggy, as we call them, did swerve for whatever reason, and did roll several times.”

“They’re heavy vehicles,” he said. “They’re very top-heavy. So it wouldn’t take much, you know, at speed, you know, for them to roll over.”

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Extreme temperatures may contribute to thousands of additional deaths in the US

Extreme temperatures may contribute to thousands of additional deaths in the US
Extreme temperatures may contribute to thousands of additional deaths in the US
SimpleImages/Getty Images

(NEW YORK) — As the Earth’s temperature continues to rise, lives could be at stake. A new study found deaths related to extreme temperatures may triple by the middle of the century, hitting minority communities the hardest.

University of Pennsylvania researchers looked at the relationship between average temperatures and number of deaths across counties in the United States between 2008 and 2019, according to the study published in JAMA Network Open on Friday. Currently, there are just over 8,000 annual temperature-related deaths in the country.

But just a single additional day of extreme heat in a month could increase these numbers.

“For years, we have been chronically underestimating the number of heat-related deaths … because they are so complicated,” Gaurab Basu, MD, director of education and policy at the Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told ABC News. “The methodologies they’re using, and the outcomes of this paper are more in line with what we believe is actually the impact of heat on mortality.”

To arrive at their estimates, the team used established climate models to predict future deaths from the heat or cold between 2036 and 2065. They ran these predictions through two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions.

“The lower emissions scenario represents what we think might happen to the greenhouse gas emission trajectory if currently proposed climate policies are enacted,” Sameed Khatana, MD, the study’s lead author and assistant professor of medicine at the Perelman School of Medicine, said. “The higher emissions scenario represents business as usual––what would happen if the economy continued to be very dependent on fuels.”

By 2065, the researchers predict that deaths from extreme temperatures could reach 19,300 in the lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and 26,500 with higher emissions––a 134% and 222% increase, respectively.

Hispanic and Black communities would fare the worst, the study suggested. Hispanic adults could see a 527% rise in temperature-related deaths and non-Hispanic Black adults could see a 278% increase.

“It’s critical to understand that a warming planet is dangerous to all of us. But climate change and heat-related impacts on health are very disproportionate and very inequitably distributed,” Basu said.

Khatana noted that part of the disproportionate burden on minority communities stems from projected population shifts. Minority and non-White populations are expected to grow faster than white populations.

However, even after accounting for this, significant differences in temperature-related deaths remain for a variety of reasons.

Minority populations often work longer hours in the heat, live in areas with less green space and more pollution, and lack adequate home cooling.

Researchers urge targeted solutions to address these disparities.

“We have to analyze the ways in which communities of color are vulnerable to exposures, to heat, because of a lack of resources and because of the kind of occupations and disempowered positions they are in,” Basu said. “We need to start there.”

Khatana emphasized the importance of staying hopeful when considering the future of climate change.

“We should think about the steps we can take to lower our carbon footprint,” he said. “We found that, even though in both [greenhouse gas] scenarios, there is an increase in extreme temperature-associated deaths, the increase is lower when the trajectory of emission increases is lower as well.”

“But no one should pretend that there’s a simple solution. Climate change is a very complex issue that requires a concerted effort at multiple levels.”

Anokhi Saklecha, M.D., is an internal medicine resident at Yale New Haven Health and a member of the ABC News Medical Unit.

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Kentucky judge shot and killed in chambers, sheriff charged with murder: Officials

Kentucky judge shot and killed in chambers, sheriff charged with murder: Officials
Kentucky judge shot and killed in chambers, sheriff charged with murder: Officials
Judge Kevin Mullins — Letcher County Government

(WHITESBURG, Ky.) — Investigators are searching for a motive after a Kentucky sheriff was arrested for allegedly gunning down a judge in his chambers, officials said.

Letcher County Sheriff Shawn Stines has been charged with first-degree murder for allegedly shooting and killing Kentucky District Judge Kevin Mullins at the Letcher County Courthouse Thursday afternoon, according to officials.

A 911 caller reported shots being fired inside the courthouse, and responders found Mullins, 54, with multiple gunshot wounds, Kentucky State Police said. He had been shot in his chambers, according to Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.

Stines, 43, allegedly shot Mullins “following an argument inside the courthouse,” Kentucky State Police said. Officials said they had not determined if Stines used his “duty” weapon.

He was taken into custody at the courthouse without incident.

Stines is cooperating with the authorities conducting the investigation, officials also said. It was unclear if Stines has an attorney.

A motive remains under investigation, Kentucky State Police trooper Matt Gayheart told Johnson City, Tennessee, ABC affiliate WJHL.

No one else was in the judge’s chambers at the time of the shooting, Gayheart said.

“It is an isolated incident, and there is no threat to the public,” he said.

Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman said his office will work with the Commonwealth’s Attorney for the 27th Judicial Circuit, Jackie Steele, as special prosecutors in the case.

The courthouse is closed on Friday, according to an order by Letcher County Judge/Executive Terry Adams.

Commonwealth’s Attorney for Letcher County Matt Butler recused himself from the case.

Butler not only worked with the sheriff, but had a “close, personal relationship” with the judge, he announced in a self-recorded video on Friday.

Butler and Mullins were formerly brothers-in-law when they were married to a pair of sisters, Butler said.

“His daughters are my nieces. My two oldest kids are his niece and nephew,” Butler said. “As a brother-in-law, I will never forget how kind he was to my children.”

And when the judge was a prosecutor and Butler was a public defender, they faced off in court, but always stayed friendly outside of court, Butler said

Butler in his message asked people to “pray for everybody involved.”

Laurance B. VanMeter, chief justice of the Kentucky Supreme Court, said in a statement he was “shocked by this act of violence,” adding the “court system is shaken by this news.”

“My prayers are with his family and the Letcher County community as they try to process and mourn this tragic loss. I ask for respect and privacy on their behalf,” he said.

“While the investigation is ongoing, we are committed to providing assistance in any way that we can,” the Kentucky Court of Justice said in a statement. “Our deepest sympathies go out to all those impacted by this tragic event, and our thoughts and prayers are with the community during this challenging time.”

Stines was deposed in a lawsuit on Monday. The lawsuit alleged the sheriff failed to investigate one of his deputies who sexually abused a woman in Mullins’ chambers.

Mullins had served as district court judge for Kentucky’s 47th District Court, which presides over Letcher County, since 2009, when he was appointed by then-Gov. Steve Beshear, the father of the current governor.

He was a graduate of the University of Kentucky and earned his law degree from the University of Louisville.

Letcher County, located along the Kentucky-Virginia border, is about 150 miles southeast of Lexington, Kentucky.

ABC News’ Victoria Arancio, Jack Date, Darren Reynolds and Leah Sarnoff contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

Eight firefighters injured as truck rolls over while returning from wildfire in California, officials say

Eight firefighters hurt, two critically, in fire truck rollover crash while returning from California wildfire
Eight firefighters hurt, two critically, in fire truck rollover crash while returning from California wildfire
KABC

(IRVINE, Calif.) — Eight firefighters were injured when the fire truck they were driving in rolled over as it returned from battling the Airport Fire wildfire, one of several large blazes raging in Southern California.

The vehicle crashed while traveling north at about 6:50 p.m. on State Route 241 near Portola Parkway in Irvine, California, Orange County Fire Authority Chief Brian Fennessy said. Other vehicles weren’t involved with the crash, he added.

The injured were taken to four different hospitals, Fennessy said. Seven were transported by ambulances and one was airlifted by helicopter from the scene, he added. Two of the injured were in stable condition at Hoag Hospital Irvine and six were taken to trauma centers, he said.

The firefighters, which he described as a “hand crew,” had just wrapped up a 12-hour shift fighting the wildfire, he said.

“We’ll be here for our firefighters, and we ask that you pray for our firefighters and their families,” Fennessy said during a press conference. “All the families have been notified, and this is the beginning of a long road for many of those firefighters and our fire department.”

The California Highway Patrol told ABC News’ Los Angeles station KABC that a vehicle driving in front of the truck swerved to avoid hitting a ladder that was in one of the lanes, causing the fire vehicle to swerve, lose control and overturn after hitting the guard rail.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

This is when peak northern lights activity will occur

This is when peak northern lights activity will occur
This is when peak northern lights activity will occur
Hasan Akbas/Anadolu via Getty Images

(NEW YORK) — A busy series of northern lights activity will soon come to a peak as the sun reaches its solar maximum stage in the coming months.

Several regions in the United States were treated to a multicolored light show earlier this week due to an increase in solar storm activity. The Aurora Borealis display stretched as far south as Arizona, Mississippi and Texas on Monday, images show.

The event followed other viewings in the U.S. in May and January. Opportunities to see the northern lights are expected to increase in the coming months.

How are the northern lights created?

Every 11 years, the sun’s magnetic field reaches its solar maximum, in which the number of solar flares is at its highest, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather and Prediction Center.

The northern lights occur when atoms and molecules in Earth’s atmosphere clash with a solar flare, which causes the atoms in the upper atmosphere to glow, creating a spectrum of color in the night sky.

Earth is currently approaching the peak of Solar Cycle 25, in which more sunspots with intense magnetic activity are expected, according to NOAA. Impactful space weather events are possible throughout 2024.

The current cycle is expected to peak between November 2024 and March 2026, according to NOAA. Northern lights activity will be heightened during this time, scientists say.

After the solar maximum is over, the sun’s magnetic field equalizes and returns to normal.

Where can the northern lights be seen?

The northern lights are visible — typically at the poles — as the solar flares travel through space and into Earth’s magnetic field. In the U.S., the northernmost states, such as Maine and Alaska, have the best viewing opportunities.

The lights can be seen closer to the equator depending on the strength of the geometric storms. But the further south you go, a more reddish hue is visible rather than green. This is because the curvature of the Earth causes the particles to interact higher in the atmosphere.

The Space Weather Prediction Center advises star-gazers to get away from city lights and travel to the darkest location possible for the best viewing.

Typically, within an hour or two of midnight tends to be the best time, according to NOAA.

It is notoriously hard to predict when an Aurora Borealis will occur, scientists say. Often, auroras can occur with just a 30-minute warning, according to the Michigan Technological University. Researchers typically use satellites to measure the speed and density of solar wind to forecast when conditions are favorable for the northern lights to occur.

On Thursday, the northern lights may be visible from Fairbanks to as far south as Unalakleet, Talkeetna and Tok in Alaska, according to the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute website, which tracks the phenomenon.

Intense geomagnetic storms can potentially disrupt navigation systems by interfering with radio and GPS signals, as well as electrical power networks, due to the subatomic particles that bombard the Earth, according to NOAA.

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California man discovers he’s paid his neighbor’s electricity bill for up to 18 years

California man discovers he’s paid his neighbor’s electricity bill for up to 18 years
California man discovers he’s paid his neighbor’s electricity bill for up to 18 years
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

(SAN FRANCISCO) — When a California resident began to question the price of his electricity bill every month, he realized an up to 18-year-old mistake was costing him well over his personal usage.

Ken Wilson, a Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) customer who has lived alone in an apartment complex in Vacaville since 2006, told ABC News’ San Francisco affiliate he started to notice his bill rise a few months ago.

In an effort to lower costs, Wilson told the outlet he tried to cut back on usage and purchased a device to help monitor how many watts his appliances use.

“Even after I turned off my breakers, I kept going outside to check my meter to see if it was still running and it was still running,” Wilson told ABC7.

“I couldn’t believe it,” he added.

Wilson said he contacted PG&E about the issue and they sent a representative to his apartment to check his meter, who confirmed his suspicions were not unfounded.

The utility company released a statement to ABC News saying Wilson had been paying the electricity bill for the apartment next to him “since potentially 2009,” three years after he had moved in.

“Our preliminary investigation has found the meter number for the customer’s apartment was being billed to another apartment since potentially 2009,” a spokesperson for PG&E said.

PG&E owned up to the mistake and maintained the company is “committed to rectifying the situation with the customer,” the statement said.

Since he’s had the same agreement with PG&E since he moved into the complex in 2006, Wilson told ABC7 and other media outlets he believes the costly mistake has been going on longer.

“We sincerely apologize for the oversight and regret any inconvenience caused by the duration of this issue,” the spokesperson added.

In an update to CBS News’ Sacramento affiliate, Wilson said PG&E fixed his meter so that he would only be paying his share of electric usage and that he was credited $600 to his account with the company.

PG&E also urged fellow customers who are worried about their usage and billing to verify their meter is correct by comparing the meter ID number on the electric panel to that on their monthly bill.

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

Facing a $2 billion decision, Trump says he will keep his Truth Social shares

Facing a  billion decision, Trump says he will keep his Truth Social shares
Facing a $2 billion decision, Trump says he will keep his Truth Social shares
Avishek Das/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

(NEW YORK) — After waiting six months — and losing $4 billion on paper — former President Donald Trump faces a potential windfall from his social media company.

Half a year after the public company behind Trump’s Truth Social platform went public, the “lockup” agreement that prevented Trump from selling any of his 115 million shares expired on Thursday afternoon.

Beginning to sell his shares could allow Trump to profit handsomely from his stake in the company — which is currently valued at approximately $1.7 billion — but it could crater the stock for the company’s diehard supporters, many of whom invested their money in the company as a sign of their support for the former president.

At the same time, holding onto the investment would be a financial leap of faith for Trump, whose shares comprise a large percentage of his net worth but have lost billions of dollars in value over the last six months.

Asked about the choice last week, Trump vowed not to sell.

“They’re worth billions of dollars, but I don’t want to sell my shares,” Trump said. “I’m not going to sell my shares. I don’t need money.”

Trump’s choice comes amid new financial pressures and a significant reshuffling of his financial portfolio.

While Trump’s net worth has grown to $4.3 billion according to the most recent Forbes estimate, the former president owes over $560 million in civil judgments, which he is actively appealing. The majority of his personal wealth — once built on the namesake properties that shot him to fame — now stems from his shares in his social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group, which have fallen more than 70% since the company went public.

Analysts, meanwhile, have expressed concern about a further decline if Trump loses the November election.

Shares in Trump Media closed at a new low of $14.70 Thursday ahead of the lockup provision expiring, though the company enjoyed a 25% surge last week after Trump announced his plan to hold his shares.

“When he’s promised to do something, he’s kept his word,” said Jerry Dean McLain, a shareholder who purchased a hundred additional shares after Trump’s pledge. “He’s loyal to his followers — to his people — so I don’t have any reason not to believe him.”

‘Nothing like this’

Trump turned to the idea of creating his own social media company in the months following his ban from Twitter and other social media companies after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Truth Social launched in 2022, billing itself as a beacon for free speech on the internet with larger plans to expand into streaming.

“All of a sudden, I went from being No. 1 to having no voice,” Trump said about the benefit of Truth Social. “I’m not going to let that happen again.”

Despite multiple roadblocks — including a dispute with the company’s cofounders and its special purpose acquisition company paying a fine to settle fraud charges with the Securities and Exchange commission — the social media company went public in March.

Shares in the public company peaked at $66 in April, with analysts comparing the company to so-called “meme stocks” like AMC and GameStop, whose share prices surged based on investor enthusiasm rather than financial metrics.

By the summer, Trump Media’s stock price lingered around $30 before slumping to the teens in September, which some experts still believe is overvaluing the company, which only brought in $836,000 in revenue last quarter — a 30% decline from a year earlier. Based on the company’s cash per share, the stock is overvalued by 1,000%, according to University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter.

With the company losing millions of dollars, reporting limited revenue, and offering an unproven business model, the stock’s performance has frequently tracked with Trump’s personal wins and losses. When Trump was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York, the stock declined 14% in after-hours trading following the verdict. Shares then surged as much as 30% early trading on the Monday after Trump survived an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania.

“It’s much more of a speculative half-proxy for the former president’s reelection prospects and half kind of a long shot early-stage opportunity to get in on a potential new tech company and social media platform,” said Tyler Richey, an analyst at Sevens Report Research.

While it’s not unusual for a company’s stock price to fluctuate based on its corporate leadership, Trump’s relationship to the value of his company stands alone, according to Mike Stegemoller, a finance professor at Baylor University. Trump is the platform’s most notable user, he attracts new members to the platform, and he is the company’s largest shareholder.

“Publicly traded corporations … are somewhat dependent on personalities, but nothing like this,” said Stegemoller. “You’re getting this asset that generates cash flows, and you’re coupling that with a personality that’s pulling revenue to that asset.”

In regulatory filings, the company has acknowledged the risk of being tied to the former president. If Trump were to sell his shares or begin using another social media platform, the company’s stock value could suffer.

Trump, for his part, has vowed to continue posting on Truth Social.

“I love it. I use it as a method of getting out my word,” Trump said last week regarding the platform.

‘A much more profitable deal’

The lockup agreement that’s kept Trump from selling off his shares in the first six months is an arrangement that’s often used by public companies to prevent company leadership from taking actions that could affect the stock price, according to Ritter.

Trump’s 115 million shares means he owns more than half of the company, so selling those shares — which Trump would have to disclose within two days in a public filing — could trigger a massive selloff and tank the company’s stock price.

“As soon as folks know he’s getting out in any large amount, I would imagine shares would fall,” said Stegemoller.

According to Stegemoller, Trump’s announcement last week that he would not sell his shares is reasonable — not only because Trump likely wants the company to succeed, but also because selling his shares too rapidly could cost him money. Because he holds so many shares, Trump would be unlikely to fully offload them all before the stock price plummeted, forcing him to sell his remaining shares at a lower price.

Alternatively, Trump could slowly sell some of his shares, arrange a deal with a buyer, or use the shares as collateral for loans. Selling some of his shares would allow Trump to still own a controlling interest in the company while diversifying his portfolio, according to Stegemoller.

“Selling slowly over time in order to pull money out of his investment is a much more reasonable deal for him, and a much more profitable deal for him, too,” Stegemoller said.

Although Trump has publicly declared that he plans to hold his shares, executives in the company could consider selling their holdings, which could also impact the stock price.

“They might want to get out as quickly as possible, and rather than sell their shares gradually, it might be a rush for the exit,” said Ritter.

‘I’m not leaving’

Trump has suggested that the company’s sluggish stock performance is partially due to speculation about him stepping away from the company — a notion he tried to dispel last week.

“People think that I’m leaving. That’s why they’re down,” Trump said regarding shares in the company. “It’s different if I leave, but I’m not leaving. I love it.”

And some analysts believe the expiration of the lockup provision could prove to be a turning point for the company.

According to Richey, a recent spike in trading volume and other metrics suggest that the stock price might be reaching a bottom, while Trump’s decision to hold his shares could reassure investors.

Speculation about Trump’s chances of winning in the November election could also help the stock price.

“There’s still money in the markets supporting a Donald Trump win if you’re using the stock price as a proxy for the election outcome,” Richey said.

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