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(WASHINGTON) — Former President Donald Trump has a massive personal stake in the upcoming election, which could either send him back to the White House — or to a courtroom for what could be years of legal proceedings under the looming threat of incarceration.

No other presidential candidate in history has faced the possibility of such drastically different outcomes, in which Trump’s legacy, personal fortune, and individual liberty could be decided by a few thousand swing state voters.

If he returns to the White House, Trump has vowed to fire Jack Smith, the special counsel who has brought two federal cases against him, “within two seconds”; he has said he would punish the prosecutors and judges overseeing his cases; and he will likely avoid serious consequences for any of the criminal charges he continues to face.

“If he wins, say goodbye to all the criminal cases,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who previously served as the chief of the Manhattan district attorney’s trial division.

“The criminal cases are over, whether it’s legally or practically,” added Friedman Agnifilo, who said a Trump victory would be a “get out of jail free card” for the former president.

If he loses the election, Trump faces years of court proceedings, hundreds of millions in civil penalties, and the possibility of jail time, beginning with the sentencing for his New York criminal case on Nov. 26.

Here is what could happen in each of Trump’s criminal cases.

New York hush money case

Trump’s most pressing legal issue following the election is his Nov. 26 sentencing on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records to cover up a 2016 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.

Defense lawyers were able to successfully delay the sentencing twice — first by asking to have the case dismissed based on presidential immunity and the second time by highlighting the political stakes of a pre-election sentencing. Describing Trump’s case as one that “stands alone, in a unique place in this Nation’s history,” New York Judge Juan Merchan opted to delay the sentencing until November to ensure the jury’s verdict would “be respected and addressed in a manner that is not diluted by the enormity of the upcoming presidential election.”

While first-time offenders convicted of falsifying business records normally avoid incarceration, legal experts told ABC News that the unique factors of Trump’s case — including him being held in criminal contempt ten times and the finding that he falsified business records to influence an election — could push Judge Merchan to impose some prison time. When ABC News surveyed 14 legal experts about Trump’s sentence in June, five believed an incarceratory sentence was likely, two described the decision as a toss-up, and seven believed a prison sentence was unlikely.

The sentencing could still proceed in November if Trump wins the election, though the new circumstances could influence Judge Merchan’s decision, according to Boston College law professor Jeffrey Cohen. Merchan could opt to impose a lighter sentence — such as a day of probation — or opt to delay the sentence until Trump leaves office.

“A sitting president wouldn’t be forced to be incarcerated while they’re serving their presidency, and so he could theoretically serve it once he’s out of office,” said Cohen, who noted that a delayed sentence could incentivize Trump to remain in office as long as possible.

“If he wins, I think realistically speaking, not there will be no meaningful sentence because of it,” said Friedman Agnifilo.

Trump’s lawyers could also attempt to delay the sentencing in light of the outcome of the election, and the former president still has multiple outstanding legal efforts to delay the case. On Nov. 12, Judge Merchan plans to issue a ruling on Trump’s motion to throw out the case because of the Supreme Court’s recent ruling granting him immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts undertaken as president — and if Merchan denies that motion, Trump could attempt to immediately appeal it to try to delay the sentencing further.

Trump has also asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit to move the state case into federal court, which his lawyers could use to prompt a delay of the sentencing. Unlike his federal cases — for which Trump could theoretically pardon himself — the state case will likely remain outside the reach of a presidential pardon, even if Trump successfully removes the case to federal court, according to Cohen.

Federal election interference case

In the shadow of the presidential race, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has been considering how Trump’s federal election subversion case should proceed in light of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, which delayed the case for nearly a year. Fifteen months after Trump pleaded not guilty to charges of undertaking a “criminal scheme” to overturn the results of the 2020 election, Judge Chutkan has set a schedule for the case that stretches beyond the election, with deadlines for key filings set for as late Dec. 19.

Trump has vowed to fire Smith if he’s reelected, but that might not be necessary since long-standing DOJ policy bars the prosecution of a sitting president — meaning the federal cases against Trump may be stopped immediately should Trump take office.

While Smith could attempt to continue his prosecution in the two months between the election and the inauguration, there’s little he could do to revive the case, according to Pace University law professor Bennett Gershman.

“They can continue to do what they’re doing, but it’s not going to really matter if, at the end of the day, Trump is able to appoint an attorney general who will then make a motion to dismiss the charges,” Gershman said.

While his federal case will inevitably go away if Trump wins, the exact way it happens is uncertain. Smith could attempt to issue a final report about his findings, Trump could face a standoff with Congress or the acting attorney general about firing Smith, or Judge Chutkan could push back against the Justice Department’s eventual move to dismiss the charges.

If Trump loses the election, Judge Chutkan is expected to continue to assess whether any of the allegations in the case are protected by presidential immunity. Her final decision will likely be appealed and could return to the Supreme Court, likely delaying a trial for at least another year, according to experts.

Federal classified documents case

After U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed Trump’s criminal case for retaining classified documents and obstructing the government’s efforts to retrieve them, Smith asked an appeals court to reinstate the case, arguing that Cannon’s decision about the appointment and funding of special counsels could “jeopardize the longstanding operation of the Justice Department and call into question hundreds of appointments throughout the Executive Branch.”

If Trump wins the election, prosecutors will likely have no choice but to withdraw their appeal, according to Friedman Agnifilo, cementing Judge Cannon’s dismissal of the case.

If Trump loses the election, the case faces a long road before reaching a trial. Prosecutors need to successfully convince the Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to reverse Cannon’s dismissal, and Trump’s team has already raised a defense based on presidential immunity, which could become the basis for a future appeal.

Faced with a series of adverse rulings, Smith would also face a key decision about whether to ask for Judge Cannon to be recused from the case, according to Cohen.

“I’m not sure what their reasons are now, except ‘We don’t really like what she’s decided,'” said Cohen, who was skeptical about the government’s grounds for recusal based on the trial record alone.

In a separate case overseen by Judge Cannon, defense lawyers for Ryan Routh — the man accused of trying to assassinate Trump at his Florida golf course in September — moved to have Cannon recused, in part citing ABC News’ reporting that a personnel roster circulating through Trump’s transition operation included Cannon’s name among potential candidates for attorney general should Trump be reelected. Cannon on Tuesday rejected that motion, describing the argument about a potential appointment as “‘rumors’ and ‘innuendos.'”

“We had a brave, brilliant judge in Florida. She’s a brilliant judge, by the way. I don’t know her. I never spoke to her. Never spoke to her. But we had a brave and very brilliant judge,” Trump said about Cannon last week.

Fulton County election interference case

Trump’s criminal case in Fulton County, Georgia, related to his effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election in that state, has been stalled since June while an appeals court considers the former president’s challenge to Judge Scott McAfee’s decision not to disqualify District Attorney Fani Willis for what McAfee called a “significant appearance of impropriety” stemming from a romantic relationship between Willis and a prosecutor on her staff. A Georgia appeals court scheduled oral arguments about whether Willis can continue her case on Dec. 6.

When asked about the future of the case if Trump wins the election, Trump defense attorney Steve Sadow told Judge McAfee last December that a trial would likely have to wait until after Trump completes his term in office.

Since August 2023, when Trump was charged in Fulton County with 13 criminal counts, Judge McAfee has chipped away at the indictment by tossing five of the counts with which Trump was originally charged.

If he loses the election, Trump could attempt to stall the case by continuing to push to have Willis disqualified or by mounting a presidential immunity defense.

“The indictment in this case charges President Trump for acts that lie at the heart of his official responsibilities as President,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in a January motion.

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(DELPHI, Ind) — Prison staffers are revealing the alleged confessions made by Delphi, Indiana, murder suspect Richard Allen while behind bars.

Allen is accused of killing Libby German, 14, and Abby Williams 13, on a hiking trail in rural Delphi on Feb. 13, 2017. He’s pleaded not guilty to murder.

John Galipeau, the former warden of the Westville Correctional Facility, where Allen was held for 13 months after his October 2022 arrest, took the stand on Tuesday.

Galipeau told jurors Allen wrote a note requesting an interview with him on March 5, 2023. He said Allen’s note said, “I am ready to officially for confess killing Abby and Libby. I hope I get the opportunity to tell the families I’m sorry.”

Galipeau said Allen admitted to throwing out a box cutter in the dumpster behind the CVS where he worked in Delphi.

An expert has testified a box cutter may have been used to slash the girls’ throats.

Asked about Allen’s mental state at Westville, Galipeau said Allen was quiet for the first month and then began acting “erratic” after he got mail from his attorneys.

Galipeau said Allen washed his face in the toilet, went to the bathroom in his cell, tore up mail and ate paper.

Allen’s attorneys have argued he was treated poorly at Westville and was called a “baby killer,” which led to a decline in his mental health.

Galipeau testified that Allen was allowed to shower three times a week, was provided three sets of clothing, had access to tablets and was allowed recreation time five days a week in an indoor room. Allen was on suicide watch and received a medical check daily, Galipeau said.

Another corrections officer, Brandon Fisher, testified that Allen confessed on April 29, 2023. According to Fisher, Allen said his plan was to rape Abby and Libby, but he panicked and ended up killing them.

Allen allegedly told Fisher he killed the girls with a box cutter and threw it into a dumpster behind CVS.

Westville corrections officer Michael Clemons also took the stand, telling jurors he was assigned to record everything Allen said and did while on suicide watch.

According to Clemons, Allen said, “I’m so glad no one gave up on me after I killed Abby and Libby,” and, “I, Richard Matthew Allen, killed Abby and Libby by myself. No one helped me.”

Clemons said Allen would shout to other inmates, “I’m not crazy, I’m only acting like I’m crazy.”

During cross-examination, Clemons testified that he never felt Allen’s behavior was genuine.

Defense attorney Brad Rozzi asked Clemons, “Can prison get to a man?” and the corrections officer admitted, “Yes it can.”

Corrections officer Michael Roberts testified that Allen was coherent and talkative, but a little scared when he arrived at Westville. After a few months, Roberts said Allen’s behavior changed and he started confessing.

Roberts had a detailed log of the four confessions he said he heard.

On April 7, 2023, Roberts wrote that Allen said, “Dear Lord, forgive me for molesting Abby, Libby, Kevin, and Chris. I want to confess. I know a lot more.” The identities of Kevin and Chris were not explained in the testimony.

On April 23, 2023, Roberts wrote that Allen said, “I killed Abby & Libby. My wife wasn’t involved. I want to confess.”

On April 26, 2023, he wrote that Allen said, “Can I talk? Can you listen I killed Abby & Libby? How do I prove I’m insane?”

On June 18, 2023, Roberts noted that Allen said, “Why are you doing this? Do you know God? Do you know why I’m here? I killed Abby and Libby.”

During cross-examination, Roberts admitted that Allen had smeared feces all over his cell and put feces on his face for two hours.

Roberts also said Allen refused food for long periods of time, and recalled one incident where Allen hit his head on the wall for so long that his face turned black and blue.

After 13 months at Westville, Allen was transferred to Wabash Valley Correctional Facility. Jason Bedwell, a corrections officer there, testified that on Feb. 4, 2024, Allen cried and talked to himself, saying, “I am sorry for what I did. Sorry for killing them.”

ABC News’ Janel Klein contributed to this report.

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(NEW YORK) — The suspect in the murder of a woman at a high-end Hamptons resort has died from apparent suicide, law enforcement sources told ABC News.

A staff member at the Shou Sugi Ban House found Sabina Rosas, 33, of Brooklyn, New York, dead in a guest room on Monday afternoon, Suffolk County police said.

The luxurious, exclusive spa retreat is popular with celebrities and is in Water Mill, located between Southampton and Bridgehampton.

A law enforcement source told ABC News that Rosas checked in with a man who left alone on Monday morning.

The suspected killer appears to have been a boyfriend of the victim, the sources said.

The victim’s cause of death has not been released.

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(SAN FRANCISCO) — David DePape was sentenced Tuesday to life in prison without the possibility of parole in the state trial over the hammer attack against Paul Pelosi.

A jury found DePape guilty in June of false imprisonment of an elder by violence or menace, residential burglary, threatening a family member of a public official, dissuading a witness by force or threat and aggravated kidnapping.

Before the sentencing, DePape’s attorneys asked for a new trial. That motion was denied.

DePape was also sentenced to 30 years in prison in May in the federal case, in which he was convicted of seeking to hold former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hostage and attacking her husband with a hammer.

DePape had broken into the Pelosi home in San Francisco looking for Nancy Pelosi, who was not home at the time.

Following the guilty verdict in the state case, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said the conviction ensures that DePape “will face consequences for his heinous crimes against the Pelosi family and our democracy.”

DePape’s public defender, Adam Lipson, said at the time they were disappointed by the verdict.

“I don’t believe that this was a kidnapping for ransom, I think that it’s really unfortunate that he was charged this way,” Lipson told reporters, adding that his client had lived a “very isolated” life and had gotten “wrapped up in a lot of conspiracy theory-type situations.”

DePape did not testify during the three-week state trial. He had pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Paul Pelosi testified that on the night of the attack, DePape woke him by asking, “Are you Paul Pelosi?” and had a hammer and zip ties, according to San Francisco ABC station KGO.

“He seemed very intent on what he was going to do,” Paul Pelosi said, according to KGO.

DePape apologized for the attack during his sentencing hearing in the federal case.

“I’m sorry for what I did, especially what I did to Paul Pelosi,” he said during the resentencing hearing, according to KGO. “I should have just left the house when I realized Nancy Pelosi wasn’t home.”

A federal jury found DePape guilty in November 2023 of attempted kidnapping of a federal officer or employee, and assault of an immediate family member of a federal official.

After a judge sentenced DePape to 30 years in federal prison in May, the sentencing was reopened when prosecutors noted that the defendant was never formally given the opportunity to address the court during his sentencing. He was again sentenced to 30 years in prison at a subsequent hearing.

DePape admitted during the federal trial that he was looking for Nancy Pelosi to question her about Russian influence on the 2016 election and planned to hold her hostage, but only Paul Pelosi was at their San Francisco home when he broke in on Oct. 28, 2022.

Paul Pelosi said on the stand during the federal trial that DePape repeatedly asked him, “Where is Nancy?”

DePape hit Paul Pelosi, then 82 years old, with a hammer, causing major injuries, including a skull fracture, but told the court that Paul Pelosi was “never my target.”

“I’m sorry that he got hurt,” DePape said during the federal trial. “I reacted because my plan was basically ruined.”

The incident was captured on police body camera video by officers who responded to the scene.

Paul Pelosi was hospitalized for six days following the attack and underwent surgery to repair the skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and hands.

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(NEW YORK) — The owner of a day care where a 1-year-old boy died of fentanyl poisoning and three other children were sickened pleaded guilty Tuesday to federal charges, resolving a case that horrified New York City and underscored the scourge of the nation’s fentanyl epidemic.

Grei Mendez pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to distribute narcotics resulting in death and serious bodily injury, one count of possession with intent to distribute narcotics resulting in death and one count of possession with intent to distribute narcotics resulting in serious bodily injury. The three counts carry a minimum of 20 years in prison and a maximum of life in prison.

Prosecutors said the children were poisoned because Mendez, her husband and a co-conspirator chose to operate a large-scale fentanyl packaging and distribution facility inside her day care, which she ran out of a small apartment in the Bronx.

On the afternoon of Sept. 15, 2023, when 1-year-old Nicholas Dominici and another child became unresponsive, prosecutors said Mendez placed a series of phone calls: first to the community center that had referred the children to the day care, then to her husband, and then 911.

Moments after Mendez called 911, but before emergency personnel arrived, prosecutors said her husband was seen on surveillance camera rushing through the front door and then leaving out of the back of the building with two heavy bags.

Nicholas died from the fentanyl and three other children — ranging in age from 8 months to 2 years — were hospitalized and treated with Narcan, police said.

At the day care, authorities discovered a one-kilogram brick of fentanyl, two kilo press machines and two trap doors that revealed concealed compartments under the floor tiles of the playroom, authorities said.

Inside the traps were more than 11 kilograms of drugs, including fentanyl and heroin, as well as tools used to brand, package, distribute and traffic narcotics, the indictment said.

Federal prosecutors said they have surveillance footage and a voice message in which Mendez said that running a day care is not her “thing” in order to prove that the facility was a front for the narcotics operation.

“Grei Mendez has just admitted she conspired to maintain and distribute large quantities of dangerously toxic fentanyl in a Bronx Daycare center, a place where parents expected their children would be protected and safe,” Damian Williams, U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, said in a statement Tuesday.

“This case has shown the senseless collateral damage caused by the fentanyl epidemic, and should remind us all that the demand for illegal narcotics so often puts innocent bystanders at risk while drug traffickers ruthlessly pursue profits,” Williams added.

Earlier this month, Mendez’s husband, Felix Herrera Garcia, was sentenced to 45 years in prison after pleading guilty to federal drug charges. The third co-conspirator has also pleaded guilty.

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(FAIRFAX COUNTY, Va.) — A Virginia au pair pleaded guilty Tuesday to manslaughter in connection to the 2023 murders of her employer’s wife and another man.

Juliana Peres Magalhaes’s employer, Brendan Banfield, was charged with murder last month in the case — a year after Magalhaes was arrested and charged.

Prosecutors said Magalhaes and Banfield began an extramarital affair in August 2022, and by the fall of that year, Banfield expressed his desire to “be rid of” his wife, Christine Banfield, according to the plea agreement obtained by ABC News.

Throughout the months that followed, Brendan Banfield would allegedly flesh out this plan, according to the prosecution. However, Magalhaes did not want to continue with at several points, prosecutors said, and allegedly did not believe Banfield would follow through with it, according to the plea agreement.

In the leadup to the double murder, Brendan Banfield allegedly created a profile on the sexual fetish site FetLife, where he found a man named Joe Ryan, the plea agreement details. He then allegedly had Magalhaes call Ryan, pretending to be Christine Banfield, to confirm both were willing to engage in sex at her home with the use of “restraints,” according to prosecutors.

When Ryan arrived at the house in February 2023, Banfield allegedly shot him in the head and then stabbed his wife to death, according to the prosecution agreement. Magalhaes then also shot Ryan, prosecutors said.

Magalhaes then allegedly called 911 and pretended Ryan had been an intruder, prosecutors said.

Magalhaes initially faced second-degree murder charges in connection to Ryan’s death. On Tuesday, Magalhaes pleaded guilty to a reduced charge of manslaughter.

She could face up to 10 years in prison.

Her sentencing is scheduled to take place on March 21 after Banfield’s February trial.

“Today’s agreement marks a significant step forward in this case, and it is an important development in our pursuit of justice for the victims and their families,” Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney Steve Descano said in a statement read outside the courthouse. “Much of the information that led to this agreement cannot be made public at this time due to the upcoming criminal trial against the other defendant in this matter.”

ABC News’ Cristina Corbin, Briana Stewart and Gemma Schneider contributed to this report.

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(DELPHI, Ind) — A pattern on the body of Delphi, Indiana, murder victim Libby German showed her blood was mixed with moisture, an officer testified at Richard Allen’s trial. The officer said he believes that moisture was Libby’s tears — which led family members watching his testimony in the courtroom to audibly react.

Libby, 14, and her best friend Abby Williams 13, were walking along a hiking trail in rural Delphi when their throats were cut and they were left in the woods on Feb. 13, 2017. Their bodies were found the next day.

Allen was arrested in 2022 and has pleaded not guilty to murder.

Maj. Pat Cicero of the LaPorte County Sheriff’s Department took the stand Monday. Cicero was not at the crime scene in 2017, but he said he studied the scene photos and various reports.

Abby’s mother cried quietly in the courtroom as prosecutors showed close-up photos of the girls’ faces, bodies, hands, feet and legs.

Cicero showed the jury an image of a blood stain on a tree. He explained it was a transfer stain, meaning it was left behind when a bloodied object touched it.

Cicero testified that the blood stains and patterns on the tree led him to him believe the attack on Libby started at the tree, with swipes of a weapon possibly causing the splatter on the tree.

Libby died from her wounds in a large pool of blood while leaning against the tree, Cicero said. He said he believes she was then dragged about 20 feet to where her body was found.

Abby was likely restrained or unconscious when she was killed, Cicero said, because there was no blood on her hands or arms and she was found with her hands raised vertically.

“Her final position is almost like she was boxing,” he said.

Cicero said he’s been to hundreds of crime scenes and described the position of Abby’s body as very unusual. “I’ve never seen it,” he said.

He also said Abby likely didn’t die right away. “This would have taken some time,” he said.

Allen has admitted to being on the hiking trail the day the girls were killed but he denies any involvement in the murders.

ABC News’ Janel Klein contributed to this report.

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(NEW YORK) — Police are investigating the murder of a woman at a high-end resort in the Hamptons.

A staff member at the Shou Sugi Ban House found the victim dead in a guest room on Monday afternoon, Suffolk County police said. The resort is in Water Mill, located between Southhampton and Bridgehampton.

The woman hasn’t been identified, police said, adding that her cause of death will be determined after an autopsy.

No one has been taken into custody.

Police ask anyone with information to call the department at 631-852-6392 or Crime Stoppers at 1-800-220-TIPS.

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(ALPINE, TEXAS) — A hiker has been found dead at a national park in Texas after authorities discovered a car had been parked for several days and launched a search and rescue operation, officials said.

The body of the unnamed 24-year-old hiker was discovered in Big Bend National Park in Texas on Monday after an aerial and ground search by National Park Service rangers and U.S. Border Patrol. Supported by helicopters from the Texas Department of Public Safety and U.S. Customs Air and Marine Operations, they found the hiker’s remains along the park’s “rugged” Marufo Vega Trail, according to a statement from the National Park Service.

“The day before, park rangers observed a vehicle that had been parked for multiple days at the Trailhead for Marufo Vega / Strawhouse / Ore Terminal Trail,” NPS said. “Records indicated that there were no overnight backpackers listed for that area for those nights. A quick search by the park pilot was unable to locate hikers in the area.”

On Monday morning, the park search and rescue team was mobilized across three different trails and air assets were directed to the remote area, authorities said.

“The victim was located along the rugged Marufo Vega Trail. A Department of Public Safety helicopter was utilized to remove the body from the remote area,” NPS said.

The Marufo Vega Trail is a “spectacular yet challenging 14-mile loop that winds through rugged desert and along rocky limestone cliffs. No shade or water makes this trail dangerous during the warmer times of year,” park officials continued. “Even though it is late October, daily temperatures along the Rio Grande and desert areas of Big Bend remain extreme; close to 100 degrees each afternoon. Park Rangers wish to remind all visitors to be aware of the dangers of extreme heat. Hikers should be prepared to carry plenty of water, salty snacks, and to plan on being off desert trails during the heat of the afternoon.”

“Big Bend National Park staff and partners are saddened by this loss,” stated Deputy Superintendent Rick Gupman. “Our entire park family extends condolences to the hiker’s family and friends.”

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(DENVER) — More than 700 homes were under evacuation orders near the town of Divide, Colorado, as a wildfire burned uncontained nearby, local law enforcement said Monday.

The so-called Highland Lake Fire had burned about 90 acres by 7 p.m. on Monday and was completely uncontained, Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell told reporters during a news conference.

A local disaster emergency was declared. One structure had been destroyed by Monday evening, the county said in an update.

“You’re going to see everybody throw everything we possibly can at this thing, starting early in the morning,” Mikesell said.

The sheriff’s office was requesting the aid of multiple agencies around the surrounding region, as they were expecting high winds, which may help the fire spread amid red flag conditions. Those winds were expected to be sustained at about 20 mph overnight, before strengthening to about 50 mph on Tuesday, he said.

The evacuation area included Cedar Mountain North to Golden Bell, Wayward Wind, Snowhill, Aspen Village, Broken Wheel, Alpine View, Beaver Lake Circle, Beaver Lake Placeand Star View Trail, the county said.

More homes were expected to be evacuated, Mikesell said.

“We’ll have more of an assessment tomorrow, but we want to get on this fire very quickly and be super aggressive with it,” he said.

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