(NEW YORK) — Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky told lawmakers Tuesday the delta variant now makes up 83% of cases, up from 50% at the beginning of this month.
“CDC has released estimates of variants across the country and predicted the delta variant now represents 83% of sequenced cases. This is a dramatic increase from — up from 50% for the week of July 3rd,” Walensky testified in a hearing before the Senate Health Committee.
Walensky said the alarming increase was happening in unvaccinated areas and that they were “allowing for the emergence and rapid spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant.”
“In some parts of the country, the percentage is even higher, particularly in areas of low vaccination rates,” she said.
The best way to stop the spread is with vaccines, she said.
“To date, our data indicates that vaccines are available to neutralize the circulating variants in the United States and provide protection against severe disease, hospitalization, and death,” she said. “The message from CDC remains clear: the best way to prevent the spread of COVID-19 variants is to prevent the spread of disease and vaccination is the most powerful tool we have.”
And on the subject of whether booster shots — which could offer extra protection against the variant for immunocompromised people — will be recommended, Walensky and Food and Drug Administration acting chief Janet Woodcock said they don’t yet have a timeline on an answer.
They were pushed multiple times by Republicans who argued Israel has already made the call to use boosters.
Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah pressed Woodcock on when boosters might be available to people who are immunocompromised.
A CDC advisory panel is scheduled to discuss on Thursday what the research shows on that point. While no vote is planned, the discussion could pave the way for the FDA to alter its authorization of the vaccines to allow for booster shots for the immunocompromised.
“Why should we not allow people who, who are elderly or have other compromised conditions to be able to get that booster?” Romney asked, noting that Israel was allowing it.
“Certainly, we are looking at all that,” Woodcock responded.
“Remember this vaccine right now — the vaccines are under emergencies use authorization and require an additional authorization for a booster,” she said.
“Well, how long is that going to take? That’s the question,” Romney asked. “We have people who want to get that booster and I’m hearing that from people who are at risk and concerned… Why can’t they?”
Woodcock didn’t answer directly, but noted that Pfizer was submitting data “to potentially make the case” for a booster and that “the FDA will be looking at that.”
Romney responded: “I don’t like the timeframe, frankly, given the fact that this is being done elsewhere.”
(WASHINGTON) — Since the onset of the pandemic, children in the U.S. have faced multiple challenges and hardships. Tragically, recent data reveals that a staggering number of children have been faced with the most heartbreaking reality: the loss of a caregiver to COVID-19.
An estimated 119,000 children across the country have lost a primary caregiver due to COVID-19 associated death, and more than 140,000 children experienced the death of a primary or secondary caregiver, defined as co-residing grandparents or kin, according to data in an internal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention document obtained exclusively by ABC News.
“This is yet another horrible byproduct of the pandemic and we as a global community must commit to supporting these children and families. The effects of this pandemic will be felt for decades,” Dr. Rebecca Katz, director of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University Medical Center, told ABC News.
The data is provisional, and the CDC confirmed to ABC News that it plans to release official data next month.
The figures are particularly staggering in comparison to a JAMA Pediatric study published in early April, which estimated approximately 40,000 children in the U.S. had lost a parent to COVID-19.
Emily Smith-Greenaway, associate professor of Sociology & Spatial Sciences at the University of Southern California, called the new CDC figures “astounding.”
“These numbers demonstrate how the mortality shock of the pandemic is directly affecting tens of thousands of children. These are really intimately experienced losses that will certainly have consequences for children’s wellbeing going forward,” Smith-Greenaway said.
As more than 609,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S., an analysis published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which tracks the extent of loss of kin due to COVID-19 with a bereavement multiplier, estimates that 5.48 million family members have grieved the loss of a loved one due to COVID-19 since last year.
Pamela Addison, a 36-year-old New Jersey teacher, and mother to two young children, lost her husband, Martin, to COVID-19 in the early months of the pandemic.
As a single parent, Addison said she felt very alone and vulnerable as she struggled to care for children and find her place in a “new normal,” which no longer included her husband.
“My heart aches for them to know that they just have me now,” Addison said.
Addison said she’s doing the most she can to make sure they remember their father and the deep love he had for them. “Every night, they kiss their papa’s picture and tell him goodnight. My daughter taught my son to do that, and it’s an important part of our bedtime routine.”
The scale of COVID-19 related deaths is so large that even if a small fraction of those who have lost their lives had children under the age of 18, there would still be a significant number of children affected, Dr. Ashton Verdery, professor of Sociology, Demography, and Social Data Analytics at Penn State, told ABC News.
“There are substantially elevated death rates among adults in their 50s, a non-trivial fraction of whom still have children under 18,” Verdery said. “Each death can leave multiple children behind.”
According to the data, children of color have been significantly affected by the loss of a caregiver, something that reflects a disparity built on an existing inequality, even prior to the onset of the pandemic, according to Smith-Greenway.
“Black youth experience higher rates of familial loss earlier in life relative to white children–speaking to the racial inequality in mortality conditions. Specifically, we find that even as Black children represent about 14% of the U.S. child population, our estimates suggest they represent 20% of those bereaved,” she said.
A 2018 Pew Research study estimated that in 2016, 64 million Americans, or 20% of the U.S. population, lived with multiple generations, and 3.2 million Americans lived in households consisting of grandparents and grandchildren.
Children of color are often more likely to reside with grandparents, acting as their primary or secondary caregivers, according to Verdery, which further aggravates their disproportionate burden.
“The much higher death rates seen in communities of color, and more specifically, the greater death rates at younger ages owing to more exposure because of inability to socially isolate, employment situations, lead to the expectation that children of color will constitute an outsize share of those who lost a caregiver,” Verdery said.
Children who have lost a caregiver to COVID-19 will be particularly affected, according to experts, potentially experiencing long-lasting adverse health, educational and economic outcomes.
“Studies across the medical and social sciences routinely show that those who lose parents are at elevated risks of depression and related mental health challenges, have higher risks of criminal justice system involvement and higher rates of substance use, are more likely to drop out of schooling and less likely to attend college,” Verdery said. “Further down the line, we know all of those factors above place the individuals at greater risk of lower earnings, more unemployment, poor physical health, and relationship strains. To some extent, though the literature is more tenuous here, there is likely greater risk of early death.”
Although children are often resilient, and many who have been bereaved after the loss of a caregiver will be able to lead healthy and productive lives, “these youth are certainly ‘at-risk’ following a death and deserve adequate resources and support to try to help them navigate corresponding adversities,” Smith-Greenaway said. “These deaths leave holes in the lives of children that are not easily mended.”
(LOS ANGELES) — With the delta variant surging in the United States, doctors are urging everyone who is eligible to get vaccinated — including the more than 30 million people who have already had COVID-19.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, getting vaccinated after recovering from infection leads to even stronger protection compared to infection alone. Meanwhile, studies show currently authorized vaccines are likely to offer protection for at least eight months, and likely longer, but much less is known about how long you’ll be protected from reinfection after recovering from COVID-19.
Despite these recommendations, some high-profile political figures have insisted that prior infection is enough, and there’s no need to get a COVID-19 vaccine for those who have already recovered.
Most notably, in June, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) falsely tweeted that vaccination did not provide additional benefit after COVID-19 infection.
Understandably, some Americans, having now recovered from COVID-19, are left conflicted with the mixed messaging and are unsure what to do next.
“For those who have had COVID and are wondering whether or not to get vaccinated, I would absolutely encourage them to do so now to protect themselves and others,” said Dr. Simone Wildes, an infectious disease physician at South Shore Health and an ABC News Medical contributor.
While the benefits of vaccination after infection are well-documented, there are still many Americans who have neither been vaccinated nor infected, and they also have a choice to make.
Not only is getting a vaccine far safer than being infected with the COVID-19 virus, but studies also show that vaccine-induced immunity may be superior to post-infection immunity. In fact, a recent study published in Science Translational Medicine demonstrated that antibodies induced by the vaccine may better combat a wider range of new viral variants when compared to antibodies induced by infection.
“This is particularly important, as now we are seeing an increase in cases due to the delta variant,” Wildes said.
Experts agree that getting vaccinated after recovering from infection is safe — and the best way to protect yourself from COVID-19.
However, there are some important instructions the CDC has released for specific groups. Patients who received monoclonal antibodies or convalescent plasma should wait for 90 days before vaccination. Children who were diagnosed with multisystem inflammatory syndrome should also wait for 90 days after the date of diagnosis.
As the delta variant becomes rampant in unvaccinated communities, and more and more Americans find themselves at a crossroads after infection, experts say it’s crucial for everyone to consider vaccination — even those who were previously infected.
Priscilla Hanudel, M.D., is an emergency medicine physician in Los Angeles and a contributor to the ABC News Medical Unit.
(EL PASO, Texas) — Abigail and Dominic Miramontez are thrilled to bring their son Austin home after 136 days in the NICU at an El Paso hospital.
Abigail Miramontez was 24 weeks pregnant and throwing a birthday party for her father when she felt was described as a “push” while making her dad’s cake. She quickly realized she needed to go to the hospital and found out when she got there that she was in labor.
“It was very scary,” Abigail Miramontez said. “I felt like it wasn’t real until he was born.”
Austin was born at just 2 pounds and 2 ounces. The couple was told their son would need to stay into the NICU at least until his original birth date to make sure he was healthy enough to go home with them.
At 2 weeks old, Austin had to undergo a procedure on his small intestines. From there, he was nursed to health by NICU doctors and nurses who Abigail Miramontez said she grew close to over the months of Austin’s stay.
Due to COVID-19 restrictions, Abigail Miramontez and Dominic Miramontez were not allowed to see their son in the NICU together — only one person could enter the room at a time. Abigail Miramontez said she drove to visit her son every day, while Dominic Miramontez, who is a truck driver, would come every chance he could when he was not working.
On July 13, 2021, the parents were finally able to take their son home after spending 136 in the NICU. Austin left the NICU weighing 9 pounds and 9 ounces.
“I was excited,” Miramontez said. “It’s actually been so much fun just having him here and being able to dress him up. When he was in the NICU, they wouldn’t even let us put clothes on him because of COVID.”
Miramontez said they’ve been able to introduce Austin to their family members safely and from a distance and that she’s excited that her son is finally home.
(PHILADELPHIA) — A Philadelphia father of two is speaking out about the ongoing risk of COVID-19 for children after his son and daughter tested positive for the virus.
Adam Joseph, a meteorologist for ABC station WPVI, said his 6-year-old son Jacob and 5-year-old daughter Hannah tested positive for COVID-19 after having contact with a relative who was not vaccinated against the virus.
Joseph said the relative tested negative for COVID-19 prior to the visit with his family, but later tested positive for the virus.
In addition to his children, their nanny also contracted COVID-19, according to Joseph.
He and his husband, Karl, are both vaccinated and have so far both tested negative for COVID-19.
“We kind of feel like we failed as parents, to a degree, after protecting our children for nearly a year-and-a-half from this, and were doing so well,” Joseph said in a Facebook video.
Children under the age of 12 are currently not eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine.
Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine was authorized for use in children ages 12 to 15 in May by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The two other COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, are currently available only for people 18 years and older in the U.S.
Joseph’s warning to parents about protecting young children from people who are not vaccinated comes as top health officials warn that COVID-19 has become a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” in the U.S.
In addition to data showing COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are predominantly among unvaccinated people, the more transmissible delta variant is driving up COVID-19 cases.
In light of the delta variant, health experts are pushing back on guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in May that fully vaccinated Americans can go without masks.
The American Academy of Pediatrics on Monday called for schools to enforce universal masking mandates because so many children won’t be protected by fall and schools have no way of verifying COVID vaccine status yet.
People who are not vaccinated, including children between the ages of 2 and 11, should continue to wear face masks in indoor public places and practice social distancing and hand washing, according to the CDC.
Joseph’s children experienced symptoms including a fever, chills and coughing, but are now improving. The children’s nanny and relative are experiencing additional COVID-19 complications, according to Joseph.
“Please, if you are not vaccinated, do not go around children who are under 12, they are so vulnerable right now,” Joseph said on Facebook. “They do not have a choice to get the vaccine at this point.”
“We need to protect our children, and make sure they stay healthy because this delta variant is affecting kids. This new delta variant is affecting vaccinated people as well,” he said. “It’s everyone’s choice, we’re all adults, whether we want to get vaccinated or not. I’m not here to push that. I’m just asking you, begging you, if you’re not vaccinated, to wear a mask wherever you go in public, even though it’s not mandatory.”
ABC News’ Anne Flaherty contributed to this report.
(NEW YORK) — Health experts, including an influential group of pediatricians, are pushing back on federal guidance that vaccinated Americans can go without masks, warning that the honor system has failed to keep many people safe in the face of the delta variant.
The American Academy of Pediatrics on Monday called for schools to enforce universal masking mandates because so many kids won’t be protected by fall and schools have no way of verifying COVID vaccine status yet.
“AAP recommends universal masking because a significant portion of the student population is not yet eligible for vaccines, and masking is proven to reduce transmission of the virus and to protect those who are not vaccinated,” the AAP wrote in a statement. “Many schools will not have a system to monitor vaccine status of students, teachers and staff, and some communities overall have low vaccination uptake where the virus may be circulating more prominently.”
People who are fully vaccinated – a term used to describe a person two weeks after their last shot – are still considered safe from serious illness or death, even if they are exposed to the delta variant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 99.5 percent of hospitalizations are people who weren’t immunized.
Because vaccinated people are considered to be safe, the CDC has said immunized adults and teens can go without a mask, including inside schools.
The public health agency has noted, however, that local officials should still decide to enforce mask mandates if COVID cases climb and vaccination numbers are low. And the CDC notes that schools can still embrace universal masking if they can’t verify vaccinations or have large numbers of students too young to qualify.
But it’s this approach – allowing states and local communities to decide and essentially putting Americans on the honor system – that’s in question after COVID cases have risen in all 50 states.
Dr. Jerome Adams, who was Surgeon General under President Donald Trump, said he made a mistake early on in the pandemic urging people not to mask up because he feared a shortage of masks for health care workers. Adams said he’s afraid the CDC is making another mistake now by not putting more pressure on everyone to wear a mask.
“Instead of vax it OR mask it, the emerging data suggests CDC should be advising to vax it AND mask it in areas with cases and positivity- until we see numbers going back down again,” Adams tweeted.
“CDC was well intended, but the message was misinterpreted, premature, & wrong. Let’s fix it,” he added.
Instead of vax it OR mask it, the emerging data suggests CDC should be advising to vax it AND mask it in areas with ⬆️ cases and positivity- until we see numbers going back down again.
CDC was well intended, but the message was misinterpreted, premature, & wrong. Let’s fix it.
The Biden administration though is in a tough spot. The CDC had been under extraordinary pressure earlier this year to show skeptical Americans the benefits of vaccination, including being able to go without a mask and not having to quarantine after being exposed.
And so far, number studies have shown that all three vaccines – Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Moderna – protect people against all known variants. The vaccines also are shown to provide more durable protection than a natural infection.
Also, any federal mandate for vaccines or masks would no doubt trigger a swift backlash among conservatives.
Responding to the former Surgeon General calling on CDC to bring back masks, conservative firebrand Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas tweeted: “No. No. No. Hell no.”
For his part, President Joe Biden on Friday suggested he wasn’t worried about the science of the vaccinations and masks, only the people who were choosing to ignore it.
“Look, the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated,” said Biden.
(NEW YORK) — Local officials have the right to reimplement mitigation strategies to stop the spread of COVID-19 amid a surge in cases fueled by the delta variant, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said Sunday.
“Unfortunately we’re seeing rises, particularly among the unvaccinated in many parts of the country now,” Murthy told ABC “This Week” co-anchor Martha Raddatz.
Approximately 97% of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the U.S. are among the unvaccinated and at least 58% of current reported cases were directly linked to the delta variant. At the end of May, the variant was estimated to account for just over 3% of new cases.
The Centers of Disease Control and Prevention has for the last two months said that vaccinated individuals can enter public, indoor spaces without a mask. Amid a surge in cases, Los Angeles County reinstated its indoor mask mandate in all public places for all individuals, regardless of vaccination status and at least 10 additional counties in California, including the city of Berkeley, have highly recommended all residents wear masks indoors again.
“In areas where there are low numbers of vaccinated people, where cases are rising, it’s very reasonable for counties to take more mitigation measures, like the mask rules coming out of LA,” Murthy continued. “And I anticipate that will happen in other parts of the country — and that’s not contradictory to the guidance the CDC issued.”
Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors Chair Hilda L. Solis told Raddatz in a separate interview on “This Week,” that the new mask mandate was not punishment for the vaccinated, but prevention.
“We still have 4 million people out of 10 million that haven’t been vaccinated — and many of them are young people,” Solis told Raddatz. “And we’re seeing that this transmission is so highly contagious that it will cost more in the long run.”
Murthy reinforced his support for LA County’s decision as an acceptable mitigation approach based on data on the ground. The county reported over 1,000 new COVID-19 cases daily this past week.
“We saw this during the last year of the pandemic, that we have large numbers of people gathering in indoor spaces that is the right setup for COVID-19 to spread,” Murthy said, adding that the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention will provide surge response teams to assist regions experiencing high coronavirus cases.
Raddatz asked Murthy about the World Health Organization’s warning that the delta variant and three additional variants of concern could prolong the pandemic and possibly lead to the emergence of deadlier strains of COVID-19.
“If we don’t get this under control now, what do you anticipate the fall looking like?” Raddatz asked.
“I am deeply concerned,” Murthy responded. “We’ve made so much progress over this past year, but what I worry about are those that we still have — millions of people in our country who are not vaccinated.”
“We have to still protect our children under 12 who don’t have a vaccine available to them.” Murthy added. “Our kids depend on the people around them being protected, being vaccinated in order to shield them from the virus. And that’s why, again, it’s so important for us to get vaccinated.”
“We have to still protect our children under 12 who don’t have a vaccine available to them.” Murthy added. “Our kids depend on the people around them being protected, being vaccinated in order to shield them from the virus. And that’s why, again, it’s so important for us to get vaccinated.”
(NEW YORK) — Local officials have the right to reimplement mitigation strategies to stop the spread of COVID-19 amid a surge in cases fueled by the delta variant, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said Sunday.
“Unfortunately we’re seeing rises, particularly among the unvaccinated in many parts of the country now,” Murthy told ABC “This Week” co-anchor Martha Raddatz.
Approximately 97% of new cases in the U.S. are among the unvaccinated and at least 58% of those cases were directly linked to the delta variant. At the end of May, the variant was estimated to account for just over 3% of new cases.
“In areas where there are low numbers of vaccinated people, where cases are rising, it’s very reasonable for counties to take more mitigation measures, like the mask rules coming out of LA,” Murthy continued. “And I anticipate that will happen in other parts of the country — and that’s not contradictory to the guidance the CDC issued.”
Los Angeles County reinstated an indoor mask mandate in all public places for all individuals, regardless of vaccination status and at least 10 additional counties in California, including the city of Berkeley, have fully reinstated mask mandates or highly recommended all residents wear masks indoors again.
Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors Chair Hilda Solis told Raddatz in a separate interview on “This Week,” that the new mask mandate was not punishment for the vaccinated, but prevention.
“We still have 4 million people out of 10 million that haven’t been vaccinated — and many of them are young people,” Solis told Raddatz. “And we’re seeing that this transmission is so highly contagious that it will cost more in the long run.”
Murthy reinforced his support for LA County’s decision as an acceptable mitigation approach based on data on the ground. The county reported over 1,000 new COVID-19 cases daily this past week.
“We saw this during the last year of the pandemic, that we have large numbers of people gathering in indoor spaces that is the right setup for COVID-19 to spread,” Murthy said, adding that the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention will provide surge response teams to assist regions experiencing high coronavirus cases.
Raddatz asked Murthy about the World Health Organization’s warning that the delta variant and three additional variants of concern could prolong the pandemic and possibly lead to the emergence of deadlier strains of COVID-19.
“If we don’t get this under control now, what do you anticipate the fall looking like?” Raddatz asked.
“I am deeply concerned,” Murthy responded. “We’ve made so much progress over this past year, but what I worry about are those that we still have — millions of people in our country who are not vaccinated.”
“We have to still protect our children under 12 who don’t have a vaccine available to them.” Murthy added. “Our kids depend on the people around them being protected, being vaccinated in order to shield them from the virus. And that’s why, again, it’s so important for us to get vaccinated.”
Raddatz also asked Murthy about his warning about COVID-19 misinformation online and what else social media companies like Facebook need to do to stop it.
“I’ve been deeply concerned about the flow of misinformation across technology platforms and throughout society over the last many months,” Murthy responded.
“I’ve called for greater transparency in terms of the data that they have to share with independent researchers so we can get a better sense of how much misinformation is flowing on these sites and what strategies are working to address them,” he added.
“I also ask people across our country to stop and verify your sources, before you post stories online,” Murthy concluded.
(LOS ANGELES) — Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors Chair Hilda L. Solis said Sunday that restoring the mask mandate there is “not punishment, but prevention” as the county responds to the alarming spike in cases of the highly transmissible delta variant.
“We’re up to almost 1,900 cases and over 460 individuals that are now in our ICU unit. This is very disturbing,” Solis told ABC “This Week” co-anchor Martha Raddatz. “As responsible elected officials, we have to do something, and in this case, the county has the ability to do that through our health order, through our health officer.”
The county reinstated the mask mandate over the weekend, nearly a month after California Gov. Gavin Newsom waived many of the state’s COVID-19 restrictions. Though roughly 52% of LA County residents have been vaccinated, it applies to all county residents regardless of vaccination status.
“We’re seeing that this transmission is so highly contagious that it will cost more in the long run if we have to see our hospitals being impacted, our ICU units, as well as our health care workers,” Solis said Sunday.
Raddatz asked Solis about the possibility the move might disincentivize vaccines.
“A recent survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation found that once vaccine-hesitant people saw that vaccinated people could go out in the community, it was an incentive, and those easing of restrictions helped the hesitant people go out and get the shot. Are you worried that they won’t do that now?” Raddatz asked.
“No, in fact, just yesterday we held an event out in a park and we saw many adults coming in with their children. And I think, because of the heightened information regarding the delta variant, that more people are more concerned,” Solis replied.
Solis said that the county is promoting programs aimed at “lessening the hardships” to receive a vaccine and to ease vaccine hesitancy.
“We are going with groups on the ground to parks, to swimming pools, to swap meets — anywhere you can think of where we are encouraging people to get vaccinated,” Solis said.
“I just want to caution people that we still have many youngsters under the age of 12, who are not eligible to get vaccinated. So we, as responsible adults, should be taking a proactive approach and making sure that we mask up and that we also get vaccinated as soon as possible,” Solis also told Raddatz.
Solis added that she believes more California counties will introduce similar mask mandates in the near future.
“I think that other counties and other jurisdictions are going to also follow suit in the coming days and let these numbers go in the different direction, but right now they continue to rise,” she said.
Raddatz asked about enforcement.
“Enforcement is always an issue, but the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department released a statement saying they will not enforce mask-wearing, arguing the order contradicts CDC guidelines,” Raddatz said. “So how do you plan on enforcing this mask mandate?”
“Our public health department is typically the individuals that go out and do inspections, so I don’t see where the sheriff really has to come in and weigh in on the manner that he might have thought,” Solis said.
“I’m not concerned about that. I think the public, overall, is smart enough to understand what is being said and how to protect themselves,” she added.
(NEW YORK) — As Americans start packing bars and live venues once again in the age of mass COVID-19 vaccination — with many abandoning masks and social distancing measures — a concerning reality check is taking place.
Health officials and front-line workers, particularly in pockets of the country with relatively low vaccination rates, are again warning the public that they are seeing an influx of unvaccinated patients who are becoming severely ill.
“This is the absolute worst that I’ve ever seen it,” Emily McMichael, a nurse at Mercy Hospital in Springfield, Missouri, told ABC News.
Nationally, more than 17,000 patients are currently receiving care around the country, the highest number in over a month, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The average number of new COVID-19 hospital admissions has also increased dramatically — to nearly 2,800 admissions a day — up by 35.8% in the last week.
And the distribution is fairly widespread: over a dozen states have seen significant increases in the number of patients coming into their hospitals in need of care, including Arkansas, which has seen a 76.4% increase in hospital admissions over the last two weeks, and Florida, with a nearly 90% increase.
Experts say the outlook for the country is mixed — while there won’t likely be a nationwide wave like spring 2020 or last winter, there is the possibility of regional surges in unvaccinated areas. And that spread can pose some dangers to the vaccinated population, specifically those who are vulnerable and in the possible creation of new variants that can mitigate or evade vaccines.
‘Nasty’ delta variant
Although there are still significantly fewer patients receiving care than the peak in January, when 125,000 patients were hospitalized, experts warn the uptick is concerning, particularly as the delta variant continues to spread rapidly across the U.S.
The highly infectious COVID-19 strain, which the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci called “nasty,” is now estimated to account for more than 57% of new cases nationwide. At the end of May, the variant was estimated to account for just over 3% of new cases.
Although it is still unknown whether the delta variant is more deadly than other variants, experts say it is more dangerous, given how quickly it spreads between people, thus, causing a greater number of infections, and therefore more illnesses and deaths overall.
This rapid spread has caused cases to increase in nearly every state in the country, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, with the national case average doubling in the last three weeks.
However, given the variation in vaccination levels from state to state and even community to community, its effects have varied widely.
“The impact of the more transmissible delta variant will not be felt in a uniform way across the country. Major pockets of unvaccinated people will continue to be the main hosts that will allow this virus to circulate,” said John Brownstein, Ph.D., the chief innovation officer at Boston Children’s Hospital and an ABC News contributor.
“While vaccines will likely prevent a major national wave, tens of millions of Americans with no prior immunity still remain susceptible to the delta variant,” he added.
Communities with fewer vaccinations see significantly higher case rates
A new ABC analysis has found that over the past week, states that have fully vaccinated less than 50% of their total population have reported a weekly average coronavirus case rate that is three times higher than in states that have fully vaccinated more than half of their residents.
States that have fully vaccinated more than half of their residents reported an average of 15.1 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people over the last week, compared to an average of 45.1 cases per 100,000 people in states that have vaccinated less than half of their residents.
The 14 states with the highest case rates all have fully vaccinated less than half their total population, and 10 out of the 11 states with the lowest case rates have fully vaccinated more than half of their total population, with the exception being South Dakota.
“In unvaccinated communities where you have increased mobility and reduced mask use and social distancing, we will continue to witness surges and unfortunately unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths,” Brownstein said.
With nearly 90% of Americans 65 years and older vaccinated with at least one dose, young Americans appear to be driving this recent increase. According to CDC data, 18- to 24-year-olds currently have the nation’s highest new case rate, with only 41.6% of the age group fully vaccinated.
The widespread national impact
For now, experts say they do not foresee a nationwide surge.
“It’s likely that COVID-19 is now moving into a phase where it’s a regional problem and not a systemic problem for the country, because of the differential in vaccinations. Fully vaccinated areas are going to see a very blunted impact of delta,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Georgetown Center for Global Health Science and Security, concurred, telling ABC News that “a surge in Missouri probably doesn’t mean much for states with high vaccination rates in terms of hospitalizations.”
However, large regional surges in areas of low vaccination could spark major problems for states with fewer health care resources, making the focus on hospital capacity urgent, the experts said.
But surges in under-vaccinated areas can pose a broader nationwide risk for those who are fully vaccinated but remain vulnerable.
“Uncontrolled transmission and population mobility means additional breakthrough infections in vulnerable populations, regardless of whether they happen to be in a state that has good vaccination coverage,” Brownstein said.
This is why some local health departments are again considering reinstating restrictions, in the hope of containing infections. On Tuesday, the Chicago Department of Public Health announced that unvaccinated travelers from Arkansas and Missouri, which have both recently experienced significant COVID-19 resurgences, will have to either quarantine for 10 days or present a negative COVID-19 test result.
In Los Angeles County, the nation’s largest, officials on Thursday reinstated a mandatory indoor mask mandate — regardless of vaccination status.
Brownstein also stressed the critical importance of containing the virus, because “unmitigated transmission further increases the probability that a variant with vaccine-evading properties might emerge.”
Although Rasmussen believes that it is unlikely that we will see the emergence of a variant that will fully evade vaccines, it is possible a new variant could reduce effectiveness enough to be problematic. In such a case, she said, boosters would become necessary.
Ultimately, said Adalja, “I think it has to be made very clear to people that the delta variant is a disease of the unvaccinated. The breakthrough infections that are occurring in vaccinated people are very, very rare, and not usually clinically significant.”
