Chase Oliver, 2024 Libertarian presidential candidate, speaks at the Des Moines Register political soapbox during the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, US, on Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023. (Sergio Flores/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
(WASHINGTON) — Libertarian Party nominee for president Chase Oliver condemned a reportedly now-deleted comment from the New Hampshire Libertarian Party on X that appeared to encourage violence against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Oliver called the NHLP’s post “abhorrent” in his statement shared on X Sunday.
“I 100% condemn the statement from LPNH regarding Kamala Harris. It is abhorrent and should never have been posted,” Oliver wrote.
A New Hampshire reporter shared a screenshot of the since-deleted NHLP post, which reportedly read, “Anyone who murders Kamala Harris would be an American hero.”
The NHLP addressed removing an earlier X post on Sunday, writing, “We deleted a tweet because we don’t want to break the terms of this website we agreed to. It’s a shame that even on a “free speech” website that libertarians cannot speak freely. Libertarians are truly the most oppressed minority.”
Oliver went on to say in his statement that his party is committed to “non-aggression.” Chase Oliver, 2024 Libertarian presidential candidate, speaks at the Des Moines Register political soa…
“As Libertarians, we condemn the use of force, whether committed by governments, individuals, or other political entities,” he continued. “We are dedicated to the principle of non-aggression and to peaceful solutions to conflict. This is also something we pledge as part of attaining party membership.”
Following the posting of his statement, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire responded with a homophobic slur in a series of posts, accusing Oliver of being an “infiltrating leftist snake.”
The LPNH has not responded to ABC News’ request for comment.
This screen grab taken from AFPTV on September 16, 2024 shows Ryan Wesley Routh speaking during an interview at a rally in support of humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians and Ukrainian servicemen on April 27, 2022, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. US media named Ryan Wesley Routh, whom AFP interviewed in Kyiv in 2022, where he had travelled to support the war effort, as the suspected would-be assassin of Donald Trump. (Photo by AFPTV / AFP) (Photo by -/AFPTV/AFP via Getty Ima
(PALM BEACH, Fla.) — The suspect in what the FBI has called an “attempted assassination” of former President Donald Trump was a booster of a number of causes, ABC News analysis of his apparent social media profiles shows.
As authorities tried to unravel the motive and details of the case, sources said investigators were looking at whether Routh was frustrated with Trump’s position on Ukraine. Trump refused to answer when asked if Ukraine should win its war against Russia during the ABC News presidential debate last week.
Authorities recovered an “AK-47-style” rifle with a scope, two backpacks — one of which had a ceramic tile in it — and a GoPro from the scene, Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw said. The would-be gunman was within 300 to 500 yards of Trump when he was spotted. The former president was unharmed in the incident and it is unclear whether the suspect fired any shots.
Routh’s vehicle was stopped by police after a witness reported his license plate number to authorities. He was placed into custody on Sunday afternoon. Authorities expect to file charges relating to the incident in the coming days, sources told ABC News. The suspect’s motive remains unknown.
Routh is believed to have ties to North Carolina and Hawaii, according to sources. The FBI is conducting an extensive investigation into Routh’s social media activity, travel and any criminal record, sources said. Friends, family and associates are also being sought for interviews.
A law enforcement source told ABC News that profiles on X, LinkedIn, and Telegram are under investigation for a possible connection to Routh. Routh also appears to have operated a Facebook page, which has now been removed, and which listed the same phone number shared on his apparent X profile.
When ABC News dialed that number, an answering machine message said: “This is Ryan with Camp Box Buildings in Hawaii, and also the National Volunteer Center sending soldiers to Ukraine as well as Taiwan.”
Online, he appears to have been a prolific booster of several causes, chiefly of Ukraine’s, with numerous posts referring to an effort to recruit soldiers for that country. Specifically, many of Routh’s posts referred to an effort to send Afghan soldiers to Ukraine.
It was not immediately clear whether Routh had actually recruited any fighters for Ukraine or whether he had any contact with Ukraine’s military or government.
Routh’s apparent X profile contained dozens of posts calling on politicians, celebrities and journalists to support Ukraine. In 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion, posts on that profile contained claims that Routh had traveled to Kyiv.
Routh spoke with an ABC News team in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on April 30, 2022 — two months into the war — at a protest held by family members of Azov Battalion soldiers defending the city of Mariupol against Moscow’s forces.
He was wearing an American flag bandana around his neck and was holding a handwritten sign that read: “Please world we need everyone here. This is good against evil. These children want normal lives … End Russia for our kids.”
Routh told The Financial Times that he had tried to join Ukraine’s International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine — which is made up of foreign volunteers — but was rejected as too old. Routh claimed the Legion then suggested he work to recruit other foreigners to serve in the unit.
The International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine told ABC News via email: “We would like to clarify that Ryan Wesley Routh has never been part of, associated with, or linked to the International Legion in any capacity. Any claims or suggestions indicating otherwise are entirely inaccurate.”
A March 2023 post on a LinkedIn profile appearing to belong to Routh contained two undated photos of Routh, respectively showing him in front of the U.S. Congress and at Kyiv’s Independence Square. The post was captioned, “In DC and Kyiv to provide soldiers for the war effort.”
On June 10, 2020, Routh’s apparent X profile directed a post on X at Trump in which he said had supported Trump in the 2016 presidential election but that Trump had become a “disappointment.” The post concluded, “I will be glad when you are gone.”
Several X posts in March 2020 referred to support for then-Democratic presidential primary candidates Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. Posts in January 2024 indicated support for former Republican presidential primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
Facebook posts from October and November 2023 promoted conspiracy theories about China, COVID-19 and biological warfare. In December, Routh posted to the platform questioning the historical claim of Jewish people to Israel.
Routh’s apparent phone number was also listed on a website for a so-called “Taiwan Foreign Legion,” which calls on international volunteers to fight for Taiwan in the event of a possible conflict with China.
The most recent post on Routh’s apparent Facebook page also refers to an effort to convince Taiwan to accept Afghan fighters.
ABC News’ Pierre Thomas, Josh Margolin, Luke Barr, Aaron Katersky, Jack Date, Peter Charalambous, Alexander Mallin, Leah Sarnoff, Joe Simonetti, Helena Skinner and Zohreen Shah contributed to this report.
In this handout provided by the Suffolk County Sheriff’s Office, Rex Heuermann poses for his booking photo on July 14, 2023. — Suffolk County Sheriff’s Office via Getty Images, FILE
(NEW YORK) — The Gilgo Beach task force is expected to make an announcement about a Gilgo Beach murder victim and its continuing homicide investigations on Monday.
A press conference will be held at 10 a.m.
Rex Heuermann has been charged in six of the Gilgo Beach murders. Investigators found 10 other bodies in the search for missing sex worker Shannan Gilbert on a stretch of beach along Long Island’s South Shore.
He was first charged with the deaths of women known as the “Gilgo Four” — Melissa Barthelemy, Megan Waterman, Maureen Brainard-Barnes and Amber Costello — whose bodies were found covered in burlap in December 2010, according to court records.
Earlier this year, investigators charged Heuermann with the murders of two more women — the 2003 murder of Jessica Taylor, whose remains were found on Gilgo Beach and in Manorville, and the 1993 murder of Sandra Costilla, whose remains were found in North Sea, Long Island, in 1993.
Heuermann has pleaded not guilty to their murders.
(NEW YORK) — As the Israel-Hamas war continues, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate against the Houthi movement after a missile fired from Yemen fell in central Israel on Sunday morning.
‘Trajectory is clear’ at Israel-Lebanon border: Gallant
Time is running out for a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict at the Israel-Lebanon border, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in an overnight phone call.
“Hezbollah continues to ‘tie itself’ to Hamas — the trajectory is clear,” Gallant told Austin per a readout from the Israeli Defense Ministry.
Gallant “reiterated Israel’s commitment to the removal of Hezbollah presence in southern Lebanon, and to enabling the safe return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes,” the defense ministry said.
Cross-border fighting between the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah — which is aligned with Iran and Hamas through the so-called “Axis of Resistance” — has been near-constant since Oct. 8.
Tens of thousands of Israelis have left their homes in the north of the country amid the fighting, with Israeli leaders repeatedly threatening a significant military operation to pacify Hezbollah forces operating in southern Lebanon.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a Sunday statement that the “current situation will not continue. This requires a change in the balance of forces on our northern border. We will do whatever is necessary to return our residents securely to their homes.”
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
Israel now says Houthi missile was hit by interceptor
A missile described by the Houthis as a “new hypersonic ballistic missile” was hit by an Israeli interceptor, Israeli military officials said Sunday, after initially saying it got through its defenses and fell in an open area.
An Israeli interceptor hit the missile fired into central Israel from Yemen, causing it to fragment, according to Israeli officials. The missile was not destroyed, but caused no damage, the Israeli officials said.
“The conclusion into the review of the surface-to-surface missile that was fired this morning is that there was a hit on the target from an interceptor, as a result of which the target fragmented but was not destroyed,” an Israeli military official said in a statement.
The Houthi movement claimed responsibility for the missile attack, claiming in a statement that it was aimed at an “important military target” in the Tel Aviv region. The Houthis claimed the missile flew some 1,267 miles in less than 12 minutes and that Israeli anti-missile defenses “failed to intercept” the weapon.
The Israel Defense Forces initially confirmed to ABC News that its defenses failed to intercept the missile but changed its conclusions upon further investigation.
-ABC News’ Victoria Beaule
IDF: ‘High probability’ 3 hostages were killed by Israeli airstrike in November
On Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces released the results of its investigation into the circumstances surrounding the deaths of three hostages, whose bodies were recovered from Gaza by IDF forces in December.
The three hostages — two soldiers, Ron Sherman and Nik Beizer, and civilian Elia Toledano — were killed “as a byproduct” of an Israeli airstrike on the compound where they were being held, according to the investigation. The IDF said the strike was targeting a Hamas commander, and that they believed the hostages were being held elsewhere.
“The findings of the investigation suggest a high probability that the three were killed as a result of a byproduct of an IDF airstrike, during the elimination of the Hamas Northern Brigade commander, Ahmed Ghandour, on November 10th, 2023,” the IDF said Sunday in a statement.
-ABC News’ Jordana Miller
Netanyahu vows to inflict ‘high price’ for Houthi missile attack
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against the Houthi movement after a missile fired from Yemen fell in central Israel on Sunday morning.
“This morning, the Houthis launched a surface-to-surface missile from Yemen at our territory,” Netanyahu said before a cabinet meeting. “They should know that we exact a high price for any attempt to attack us.”
“Whoever needs a reminder of this, is invited to visit the port of Hodeidah,” the prime minister added, referring to Israel’s bombing of the strategic Yemeni port in July after a Houthi drone strike killed one person in Tel Aviv.
“Whoever attacks us will not evade our strike,” Netanyahu said.
(LOS ANGELES) — More than 8,600 firefighters simultaneously battling three major Southern California wildfires made substantial progress overnight, taking advantage of cooler and wetter weather to increase containment lines on all three blazes, authorities said Sunday.
The largest blaze — the Bridge Fire burning in Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties — was at 54,567 acres as of Sunday morning, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire).
More than 2,600 emergency personnel battling the fire increased containment to 9% on Sunday, up from 2% on Saturday morning. Fire crews ensured a “minimal” spread of the inferno by about 800 acres overnight, according to Cal Fire.
Two firefighters have been injured in the Bridge Fire, which began on Sept. 8. At least 19 structures have been destroyed and six damaged, with 11,560 more still under threat, Cal Fire said.
The northwest corner of the fire was most active through Saturday, Cal Fire added, while the east side of the blaze still poses risks to residents in the Mount Baldy area, where evacuation orders remain in effect.
Firefighters held their containment line on its south side in the Sunset Peak area, and increased containment there by 2%.
The cause of the Bridge Fire remains under investigation.
Elsewhere in the Los Angeles area, firefighters were gaining the upper hand on two other major wildland blazes.
Line Fire
Firefighters in San Bernardino County increased containment of the Line Fire to 36% on Sunday morning, up from 25% to 29% on Saturday, according to Cal Fire. The blaze, which was started Sept. 5 by an alleged arsonist, was 38,421 acres in size as of Cal Fire’s latest update Sunday morning.
Some 36,300 structures are being threatened, with one destroyed and three damaged as of Sunday. There are 4,103 fire personnel fighting the blaze, with three firefighters so far injured.
“Late Friday night and into the early hours Saturday, Line Fire activity was moderated due to higher moisture levels,” San Bernardino National Forest officials said, though they added that danger of spreading fire remained in dry vegetation, drainages and along slopes.
“The weather is expected to remain cool over the next several days which will continue to help moderate fire behavior,” the national forest officials said.
Airport Fire
Firefighters battling the Airport Fire in Orange and Riverside counties grew containment from 9% to 19% on Saturday, Cal Fire reported, with the fire now 23,519 acres in size.
The wildfire destroyed 109 structures and damaged 24 more as of Saturday night, Cal Fire said, with another 21,993 still threatened. Fourteen people — 12 firefighters and two civilians — have been injured.
“Favorable weather conditions persisted, with the marine layer returning this evening and forecast light precipitation in the coming days,” Cal Fire wrote on Saturday evening.
“Despite recent weather, the dry vegetation has exhibited active fire behavior, indicating the continued risk of increased fire activity,” Cal Fire said.
“Evacuation levels are being assessed daily by fire managers in collaboration with law enforcement based on fire containment and safety considerations,” it added. “Efforts are underway to safely return residents to their homes as conditions permit.”
The Airport Fire began around 1 p.m. PT on Tuesday, sparked by county public works crews working on a fire prevention project by trying to move boulders to prevent public access — mostly by motorcyclists — to an area of the canyon with a lot of dry vegetation that could ignite easily, officials told Los Angeles ABC station KABC.
ABC News’ Samira Said and Tristan Maglunog contributed to this report.
The Revuelto, Lamborghini’s first plug-in hybrid, pairs a V12 engine with three electric motors. — Morgan Korn/ABC News
(NEW YORKI) — Lamborghini has sold adrenaline-inducing speed and spaceship-like designs for decades, to much success.
The brand’s executives are blunt, however, when it comes to their cramped cabins: “We’re not very famous for the interior.”
That’s about to change. The Italian marque’s latest sports car, the Temerario, was designed, it seems, with one type of customer in mind: lanky drivers.
“We increased the roominess in the car … tall people can sit comfortably,” Lamborghini CEO Stephan Winkelmann told ABC News.
The Temerario, a plug-in hybrid that debuted in August, lives up to previous models: 10,000-rpm redline; top speed of 210 mph; 907 horsepower produced from the all-new twin-turbo 4.0-liter V8 powertrain; and an 8-speed dual-clutch gearbox. Yet it’s the added comfort that executives were eager to discuss.
Winkelmann said his team put a lot of emphasis and attention on storage space and headroom in the Temerario, partly to appease owners in the United States, the brand’s No. 1 market. The Temerario is being billed as more of a “weekend car,” with enough real estate to squeeze luggage behind the two front seats — unheard for the brand.
The storied carmaker is in the process of electrifying its lineup. In addition to the Temerario, Lamborghini showed off the Urus SE in April. The company’s first hybrid, the beastly 1,001 hp Reveulto (three electric motors assist the naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12 engine), has a nearly three-year wait list. The flagship supercar went on sale last year.
“This is the best lineup we have,” Winkelmann said.
The Lamborghini exec spoke to ABC News about the company’s electrification strategy, industry challenges and what could put the brakes on the company’s upward sales trajectory.
The interview below has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Q: What’s been the early reaction by customers and enthusiasts to the Temerario, Lamborghini’s new hybrid sports car and successor to the Huracan?
A: It’s been very positive. We will see in the next weeks, months what the order collection is like. And I will be surprised if it’s negative.
Q: You made a point to underscore how comfortable this car is inside versus previous models as well as the added room for luggage. Is the company responding to customer feedback?
A: Everybody now wants everything. They want design, they want speed, they want a luggage compartment, they want space in the interior. We worked over the years on finding a way to create space without jeopardizing the design and the height of the car.
People are getting taller, especially in North America. We have a lot of tall, male customers. We worked on the performance of the car, the design and roominess, the handling. In a supercar, performance is more important than comfort. And design is more important than the luggage compartment. But now you have to try to get at least best in class in this type of segment so you work on everything.
Q: Could the Temerario have been built with a V10 engine?
A: We wanted to create something that sets apart the V12. The choice of the V8 … was something unique in our world — it’s also a matter of C02 emissions. We all agreed this was the choice. There was no way to continue with the V10.
Q: What will you miss most about the Huracan?
A: I was part of the team when we started to develop the car. These are memories I will never forget. The “baby Lamborghini” was a very important car for us and we really exploited what was possible to do.
The variant I love the most is the Sterrato. I wanted to do the Sterrato almost 10 years ago. Then I was away for some years [from the company] and I came back at the end of 2020. And they still hadn’t done the car. So I said, “We will do it.” And I think we did the right choice because it’s unique, and I really like it. It’s a lifestyle car but it’s also really fun to drive.
Q: Is there really a two-year wait for the Revuelto?
A: Even more. Two-and-a-half years at least in the U.S.
Q: You recently debuted the Urus SE, a hybrid SUV. What has reaction been like to this model?
A: We presented it in Beijing [in April]. The car is not on the road yet. The order bank is incredible and we’re happy.
Q: The first six months of 2024 show record results in terms of deliveries, revenues and operating income. What are you expecting for the second half of the year?
A: Things are going the right way. We don’t know who is going to be the next president of the U.S. … but we think it can be another very good year for Lamborghini if it goes like the first six months.
Q: Do U.S. presidents impact Lamborghini sales?
A: So far no. Kamala Harris, though, is an unknown variable.
Q: Have the recent stock market gyrations and recession chatter impacted the company?
A: Nobody knows the future. We look at the order bank and residual values. We look at the showroom traffic, the hesitation of people who may cancel orders. We go down to each and every dealer to see how they’re doing.
Q: The Revuelto is not your traditional plug-in hybrid — the electric motor is really there to add horsepower and boost performance. Will we see a true hybrid from Lamborghini — one that posts better fuel economy and record stats?
A: The mileage of the Temerario and Revuelto is, for sure, not the highest, but you have mileage in purely electric mode. The Urus has a much higher mileage of electric — 60 kilometers, so around 40 miles.
Q: Everyone loved the Lanzador concept last year. Is that still coming in 2028? Or will it be sooner?
A: Not sooner.
Q: When will we see a fully electric Lamborghini, if ever?
A: We are planning for the end of this decade. We stick to our plans.
Q: Are you surprised that enthusiasts are clinging to their V12s and V10s?
A: No, because we forecasted this. We said it’s far too early for supercars to go fully electric. But for the daily useable cars, in my opinion, this is a good opportunity.
Q: What is the biggest obstacle facing all automakers now?
A: I would say electrification is the biggest challenge globally. The other is the software development … cars are more and more connected. These are the two major challenges for the industry. For other brands, challenges are the cost of developing [electric] cars and the pricing of these cars. Then it has to be a fair competition around the globe, which is sometimes not the case.
Q: I appreciate that there are still buttons in Lamborghinis. Will that change over time?
A: A touchscreen is nice, but we also want to have the haptic [feel] and click of the buttons. Voice control will increase in cars, but to me, buttons are more luxurious than a touchscreen. We believe in buttons.
Law enforcement personnel investigate the area around Trump International Golf Club after an apparent assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump on September 15, 2024 in West Palm Beach, Florida. The FBI and U.S. Secret Service, along with the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s office, are investigating the incident, which the FBI said “appears to be an attempted assassination of former President Trump” while he was golfing at the course. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
(PALM BEACH, Fla.) — Former President Donald Trump thanked law enforcement for an “incredible” response to what the FBI described as an assassination attempt at Trump’s Palm Beach, Florida, golf course on Sunday.
Multiple law enforcement sources told ABC News that 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh was detained by Florida authorities in relation to the incident. Authorities are now probing for more details on the would-be shooter.
“I would like to thank everyone for your concern and well wishes – It was certainly an interesting day!,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
“Most importantly, I want to thank the U.S. Secret Service, Sheriff Ric Bradshaw and his Office of brave and dedicated Patriots, and, all of Law Enforcement, for the incredible job done today at Trump International in keeping me, as the 45th President of the United States, and the Republican Nominee in the upcoming Presidential Election, SAFE.”
“THE JOB DONE WAS ABSOLUTELY OUTSTANDING. I AM VERY PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN!” he wrote.
Secret Service agents accompanying Trump fired at a man armed with an AK-47-style rifle on or near the Trump International golf course on Sunday.
The incident comes around two months after Trump was shot in the ear at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
The FBI is investigating Sunday’s incident as an “attempted assassination.” Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw said at a news conference Sunday afternoon that the gunman was within 300 to 500 yards of Trump when he was spotted.
Secret Service agents fired four to six rounds at him before he dropped his weapon and fled the scene in a vehicle. Witnesses reported the license plate number to authorities, and the suspect was stopped and detained.
It was not clear if the suspect was aiming his gun at the former president. Agents fired at the suspect after spotting his rifle through the fence line, multiple sources told ABC News.
Sources said three shell casings believed to be associated with the suspect’s AK-47 were found on the scene, though investigators are still evaluating whether the suspect fired his weapon. The rifle and two backpacks containing a GoPro camera and ceramic tiles were recovered from the scene, Bradshaw said.
Sources said Trump was immediately rushed to a safe area on the grounds of the golf course after the shots were fired.
Authorities are now probing Routh’s background. The detainee is believed to have ties to North Carolina and Hawaii, sources said. Sources told ABC News that the FBI is conducting an extensive investigation into Routh’s social media activity, travel and any criminal record. Friends, family and associates are also being sought for interviews.
Sources familiar with the investigation said authorities are looking into whether Routh had grievances related to Trump’s position on Ukraine.
Authorities are expected to file charges relating to the incident in the coming days, sources told ABC News.
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris both condemned the apparent assassination effort.
“As I have said many times, there is no place for political violence or for any violence ever in our country, and I have directed my team to continue to ensure that Secret Service has every resource, capability and protective measure necessary to ensure the former President’s continued safety,” Biden said in a statement.
Harris said she was “thankful” that Trump was safe and “deeply disturbed by the possible assassination attempt.”
“As we gather the facts, I will be clear: I condemn political violence. We all must do our part to ensure that this incident does not lead to more violence,” Harris said.
ABC News’ Lalee Ibassa, Katherine Faulders, Aaron Katersky, Soo Rin Kim, Michelle Stoddart, Pierre Thomas, Rachel Scott, Jack Date, Leah Sarnoff, Kelsey Walsh and Luke Barr contributed to this report.
(NEW YORK) — Borrowers have waited years for a sign of relief from high interest rates for everything from credit card loans to mortgages. The wait may come to an end this week.
Investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a meeting on Wednesday. The move would dial back the central bank’s benchmark rate from a 23-year high, reversing some of the rate hikes initiated three years ago in an effort to fight inflation.
Questions, however, remain about the size of the rate cut, what it means for borrowers and how it may impact the 2024 presidential race.
Experts spoke to ABC News about what to know ahead of the potential interest rate cut.
Why is the Fed expected to cut interest rates?
In 2021, the Fed began aggressively raising interest rates in an effort to bring inflation under control. The policy has largely succeeded. Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of about 9% in 2022, though it remains slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
Meanwhile, the job market has slowed. A weaker-than-expected jobs report in each of the last two months has stoked concern among some economists. The unemployment rate has ticked up this year from 3.7% to 4.2%.
Those trends have shifted the Fed’s focus away from controlling inflation and toward ensuring a healthy job market.
In theory, lower interest rates help stimulate economic activity and boost employment; higher interest rates slow economic performance and ease inflation.
“The Fed has been very much guided by data,” Anastassia Fedyk, a professor of finance at Haas Business School at the University of California Berkeley, told ABC News. “ Inflation numbers in the last few months have started looking good, and things are not looking so hot in terms of the jobs reports.”
What will the size of the rate cut be?
The chances of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Market observers are divided nearly down the middle over whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point, or opt for a larger half-point cut. The tool estimates the probability of a quarter-point cut at 51% and the odds of a half-point cut at 49%.
“There is that much uncertainty because it seems not all Fed officials are of the same opinion,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at accounting firm EY, told ABC News.
Some Fed policymakers appear to prefer a gradual approach to rate cuts in light of easing inflation and a resilient, albeit weakened, labor market, Daco said. By contrast, others seem to favor a large initial cut that would help avert a more severe job market slowdown.
What would a rate cut mean for credit card fees, mortgage rates?
An interest rate cut would mark a major milestone as the Fed shifts toward a lowering of rates and an easing of costs for borrowers, experts said. Still, they added, the initial rate cut would not substantially lessen loan payments.
“In the grand scheme of things, it’s peanuts,” Daco said.
Nevertheless, some loan relief has already emerged in anticipation of a gradual lowering of interest rates over the coming months.
Mortgage rates fell last week to their lowest level since April 2023, Freddie Mac data showed. The 10-year treasury yield, which helps set the level of many consumer loans, has plummeted nearly a percentage point since July.
“This is a sign of a trend that’s going to start, but it’s going to take a lot longer and be milder than an immediate transition,” Fedyk said.
What would a rate cut mean for the November election?
Typically, lower interest rates make borrowing less expensive for businesses and consumers, propelling companies to invest in new projects and everyday people to stretch for bigger purchases. That all should help propel economic growth and buoy consumer optimism.
In turn, an economic surge could benefit the incumbent party, dispelling concern about a recession and improving the livelihoods of everyday people, some analysts previously told ABC News.
However, the benefits of a forthcoming rate cut could prove more limited, since rate moves take hold after a period of delay that can last months, analysts said.
The most recent Democratic presidential candidate who failed to win reelection, Jimmy Carter, lost his bid amid a historic series of rate hikes at the Fed.
A rate cut would deviate from the policy approach taken by the Fed prior to many recent presidential elections, a Reuters analysis found. Policy rates were left unchanged for six to 12 months before the 2020, 2016, 2012 and 2000 U.S. presidential elections, according to Reuters.
To be sure, the Fed says it bases its decisions on economic conditions and operates as an independent government body.
When asked about the 2024 election at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “We don’t think about politics.”
The FBI is investigating what it called an “attempted assassination” of former President Donald Trump after Secret Service agents fired at a man with an AK-47 rifle on or near Trump’s Palm Beach, Florida, golf course on Sunday.
A spokesperson for Donald Trump’s campaign said the former president is “safe.” Law enforcement sources told ABC News a suspect is in custody.
The incident comes around two months after Trump was shot in the ear at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw said the gunman got as close as 300 to 500 yards away from the former president when he was spotted and agents fired four to six rounds at him before he dropped the gun and fled. It was not clear if the suspect was aiming his weapon at Trump.
The source said the suspect got into a vehicle and witnesses reported the license plate number, which was tracked by authorities. The suspect was stopped and taken into custody.
Bradshaw said along with an “AK-47-style rifle,” two backpacks were found at the scene with a GoPro camera and ceramic tiles inside.
The sheriff said the golf course was not surrounded by law enforcement because Trump is not the sitting president. “If he was, we would have had this entire golf course surrounded. But because he’s not, security is limited to the areas that the Secret Service deems possible. So, I would imagine that the next time he comes to the golf course, there’ll probably be a little bit more people around the perimeter.”
But Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said he already had concerns about the Secret Service after the first assassination attempt against Trump and advocated moving the agency from under the Department of Homeland Security and back under the Treasury Department, “where it had more focus.”
A Republican who spoke with Trump shortly after the incident told ABC News that Trump said he was near the 5th hole of the Trump International golf course when he heard “popping sounds” in the vicinity. The source said Trump was in “good spirits.”
Sheriff Will Snyder of neighboring Martin County told ABC News that his units detained a man following the incident. Snyder said after the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Department, the Secret Service and the FBI put out a “Be on the lookout for” alert, one of his officers saw the suspect vehicle northbound on Interstate 95 and other officers “forced it to a stop without incident.”
Snyder said the vehicle matched the description in the bulletin but “now we have to determine if this, in fact, was the right suspect.”
Shortly after the incident, Trump sent a fundraising email saying that he was safe and well and that no one was hurt.
“But, there are people in this world who will do whatever it takes to stop us,” he wrote.
In a follow-up fundraising email Sunday evening, Trump wrote, “My resolve is only stronger after another attempt on my life.”
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris were briefed on the “security incident at the Trump International Golf Course,” the White House said in a statement Sunday.
“They are relieved to know that he is safe. They will be kept regularly updated by their team,” the White House added.
After being briefed on the incident, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement, “There is no place in this country for political violence of any kind.”
“The perpetrator must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” Schumer added.
Americans broadly pick Kamala Harris as the winner of last week’s widely watched presidential debate – yet neither she nor Donald Trump moved the needle in terms of trust on the issues, ratings of the candidates’ personal attributes or vote preferences in the 2024 election.
Even Taylor Swift shows little impact: Just 6% in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll say the pop star singer-songwriter’s endorsement of Harris makes them more likely to vote for her; 13%, instead, say it makes them less likely to support her, with 81% saying it makes no difference. Those responding negatively are overwhelmingly Trump supporters, according to the poll.
Americans by 58-36% say Harris won the debate – a reversal from the Biden-Trump match in June, which Trump was seen as winning by 66-28%. Biden’s performance intensified questions about his cognitive health, precipitating his departure from the race.
The poll of 3,276 adults, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos, finds that Harris did firm up some of her personal appeal: Thirty-seven percent say the debate made them feel more favorably toward her, vs. 23% less favorably. There was no such benefit for Trump: People by nearly 2-1 say the debate made them see him less favorably.
The benefit for Harris occurred almost exclusively in her base, potentially helping her turnout efforts. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say the debate made them see her more favorably. Only half as many Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents, 34%, say the debate made them see Trump more favorably. One factor may be that Harris, a walk-on candidate, has had less public exposure until now.
The poll also finds a slight dip in the share of Trump supporters who back him strongly – 56%, vs. 60% at the end of August. Sixty-two percent of Harris’ supporters now are strongly behind her, the first meaningful difference in strong support between the two.
That said, Trump shows an advantage in another gauge: while 42% call him too conservative, 47% call Harris too liberal, one of his debate themes.
Preferences
Vote preferences haven’t moved meaningfully. This poll finds the race at 51-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults; 51-47% among registered voters; and 52-46% among likely voters. Each is within a percentage point of its pre-debate level in ABC/Ipsos polling.
Results are essentially identical when including third-party or Independent candidates Chase Oliver, Jill Stein and Cornel West; they get at most 1% support apiece. State-to-state ballot access for these candidates is a work in progress; ABC News estimates that as of now Oliver likely is on the ballot in about 36 states, Stein in about 27 and West in about 15.
It’s important to note that this poll measures preferences nationally, an effort to better understand how all Americans are coming to their choices in the presidential election. It doesn’t assess the contest at the state level, which determines the winner of the Electoral College.
The absence of movement in vote preferences, despite a 22-point tilt to Harris as having won the debate, marks the sharply polarized nature of the electorate. Almost everyone has a preference between Harris or Trump, and among those who do, few say they’d even consider the other. This is especially true among likely voters, with just 3% potentially persuadable to switch.
Another result also shows the entrenched divisions in attitudes. Seventy-three percent of Trump’s supporters say they’ve backed him all year. Of the rest, 17% were undecided at some point but settled on Trump; just 9% moved to Trump from another candidate – mostly, other Republicans or the former Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Barely 2% of Trump’s supporters came to him after previously preferring Harris or Biden.
It’s similar on Harris’ side of the ledger. Two-thirds of her supporters say they’ve been with her since she got into the race. A quarter were undecided at some point. Just 2% of Harris supporters have moved to her from Trump.
Movable voters can matter – as everyone matters – in a tight race. But these results suggest that the biggest pickings for Trump and Harris alike are in motivating turnout among their existing support groups.
Groups
Harris leads Trump by nine points among women while running virtually even with him among men, and by a slight nine points among 18- to 29-year-olds, entirely due to her support from women that age. She improves among young adults who are more likely to vote.
While younger women are important to Harris, the Swift endorsement doesn’t show a positive impact even in this group. Eight percent of women younger than 30 say the endorsement makes them more likely to support Harris, while 13% say it makes them less likely to do so. Most, 78%, say it makes no difference.
Her position among suburban women, an often-watched group, is similar to her support among women overall. More tellingly, she’s +12 points among independents, often a swing voter group in presidential elections.
Trump, for his part, leads by a vast 79-18% among white evangelical Protestants, with this core GOP group seemingly unfazed by his layered position on abortion. He’s roughly on par with past performance, having won white evangelical Protestants by 74-25% in 2020 and 81-16% in 2016.
In other groups, Trump leads by 12 points among white people, growing to 28 points among those who don’t have a four-year college degree, a mainstay of his support. Despite suggestions that he’s denigrated the military, he leads by 29 points among veterans, 63-34%.
Voters
Many of these results – but not all – hold steady when moving from the general public (relevant because there’s still time to register) to registered voters and then to likely voters. But there are a few notable exceptions.
Harris advances from +9 points among all adults aged 18-29 to +19 points among those identified as likely voters. This is fueled by young women, a cornerstone group in her campaign: Harris goes from +23 points among all women under 30 to +38 points among those likely to vote.
There’s a stark contrast with men aged 18-29 who are likely to vote: Just 51% in this group back Harris, with virtually as many, 48%, for Trump.
Trump, for his part, remains closer than usual to Harris among Hispanic people, now trailing her by 17 points among those who are likely voters. That’s better than usual for Trump compared with past elections: Biden won Hispanic people by 33 points in 2020; Hillary Clinton won them by 40 points in 2016, per ABC News exit polls.
Issues and attributes
While overall vote preferences are stable, so are views on issues and attributes. The economy and inflation continue to dominate as the top issues in the election, and Trump leads by 7 points in trust to handle each of them.
In the next most important issues, Harris responds with a 7-point lead on “protecting American democracy” and a 9-point lead on handling health care. The two remain evenly matched on crime and safety.
It’s clear, too, why Trump keeps doubling down on immigration as an issue: He leads Harris by 10 points in trust to handle it. She leads him by 14 points on abortion and by 16 points on handling race relations, although both rate lower in importance.
There are differences among groups in issue importance. In notable gender gaps, women are 14 points more apt than men to cite abortion as a top issue in their vote, 68% vs. 54% – a difference that holds regardless of age. Women also are 11 points more likely than men to cite health care as a top issue, 82 vs. 71%. Still, the economy and inflation top the issues list among women and men alike.
Harris’ best results vs. Trump continue to be on personal attributes, explaining her effort to lean in on this domain. She leads him by 32 points in having the physical health it takes to serve effectively, 17 points in honesty and trustworthiness, 10 points in mental sharpness, 10 points in understanding the problems of people like you and 7 points in better representing your personal values. All, again, are essentially the same as they were before the debate.
Overall favorability also is essentially unchanged: Forty-seven percent have a favorable impression of Harris, vs. 35% for Trump. Still, they’re close in being seen as qualified for office – Harris by 53%, Trump by 49%. The difference widens, however, among independents; 56% see Harris as qualified vs. 48% who say the same of Trump.
Debate
Lastly, on the debate, it’s notable that 95% of Democrats say Harris won, while fewer Republicans, 75%, say Trump won. (Among independents, 61% pick Harris.) Similarly, among Trump’s own supporters, 78% say he won the debate, while among people backing Harris, 97% give her the win. (These results include people who initially called the debate a tie, then leaned toward Harris or Trump as the winner.)
While 58% overall say Harris won, this rises to 64% of those who watched all or some of the debate. That reflects the fact that Harris supporters are 8 points more likely than Trump supporters to have watched. Harris supporters are even more apt to have read, watched or listened to follow-up news coverage or commentary about the debate – 75% have done so, vs. 59% of those who support Trump.
Methodology
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Sept. 11-13, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 3,276 adults. Partisan divisions are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sample sizes are 2,772 for registered voters and 2,196 for likely voters, with a 2-point error margin for each. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on the ABC News survey methodology here.
