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(WASHINGTON) — President Joe Biden may not be on the ballot this election cycle but his agenda hangs in the balance as Democrats defend their majorities in Congress.

Biden, making his final pitches to voters ahead of Tuesday’s races, is casting the midterms as a critical moment for the nation.

“I know there is a lot at stake in these midterm elections, from our economy, to the safety of our streets, to our personal freedoms, to the future of healthcare and Social Security and Medicare,” Biden said this past week. “It’s all important.”

Republicans are favored to win back control of the House, according to FiveThirtyEight’s midterm forecast. As for Senate control, the forecast shows a dead heat between Democrats and Republicans.

A Republican majority in either chamber would doom Democratic priorities like climate change, voting rights and abortion access. And the remaining pieces of Biden’s signature “Build Back Better” framework would likely meet a similar fate.

“I think there were certainly pieces that got left on the table, like the child tax credit and the universal pre-K, that would be very hard to do in a divided Congress,” Jim Kessler, the executive director at the center-left think tank Third Way, told ABC News.

Kessler, though, had some optimism that bipartisan legislation could still get through a divided Congress, noting that many of Biden’s major legislative achievements have gotten some Republican support: the CHIPS Act, the gun safety package and the infrastructure law.

“Biden is uniquely qualified to pass bipartisan legislation if that’s necessary,” he said. “He’s done it before.”

But other political strategists said a Republican majority could make governing difficult for Biden.

“The biggest challenge that both the president and the Democrats in Congress are going to face is going to be the extreme, dangerous Republican caucus,” Craig Varoga, a Democratic strategist, told ABC News.

Republicans have expressed little interest in working with Democrats if they gain control on Capitol Hill.

GOP lawmakers are eying rollbacks of Biden’s corporate tax increases, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s vowed to repeal the $80 billion set aside for the Internal Revenue Service in the Inflation Reduction Act, which Republicans misleadingly claim will lead to more agents going after middle-class Americans. Also on the chopping block, McCarthy’s said, is the steady stream of financial assistance to Ukraine as the nation staves off Russia’s invasion.

And if Republicans take over the Senate, they could block Biden’s judicial nominees, who need a majority vote to be confirmed.

Still, no legislation will get past the finish line without Biden’s signature — setting up potential showdowns between him and a Republican Congress.

Several House Republicans have already pledged to launch several investigations targeting the administration if they’re the majority, including probes into Hunter Biden, the president’s son. Hunter Biden, who also faces a federal probe over his tax affairs, has been scrutinized by the GOP for his international business dealings.

Other potential investigations would likely target COVID-19 policies, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the handling of the southern border. Some GOP lawmakers have already proposed impeaching Biden as well as Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Attorney General Merrick Garland.

“I’m already being told, if they win back the House and Senate, they’re going to impeach me,” Biden told supporters last Thursday.”I don’t know what the hell they’ll impeach me for.”

What the midterms mean for 2024

Some Democratic candidates, especially those in tough races, have distanced themselves from the administration this cycle on hot-button issues like immigration or the economy. Others, such as Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, have openly suggested he shouldn’t run for another term.

Biden himself has said he intends to run, but hasn’t made any concrete announcements. At 79, and turning 80 later this month, he’s currently the oldest person to serve as commander-in-chief in the nation’s history.

One ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted in late September found that 56% of Democrats and independents that tend to vote for Democrats said they wanted “someone other than Biden” to run in the next presidential election.

If Democrats lose badly this cycle, it could potentially increase calls for Democrats to look elsewhere for a 2024 nominee.

“The stakes are obviously high but midterm elections that are bad for presidents are the norm, not the exception,” Kessler said, noting several presidents — most recently former President Bill Clinton and former President Barack Obama — were able to win reelection after Democrats were trounced in the midterms.

Since the Civil War, the party in the White House has gained seats in the House just three times in 40 tries. In the Senate, since the direct election of senators began in 1914, they’ve gained or retained their seats just seven times.

If Democrats manage to hold onto their majorities in Congress, Kessler said it would be affirmation that “running a mainstream Democratic agenda through Congress works.”

Copyright © 2022, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.

(WASHINGTON) — As Election Day neared, voters in key battleground states spoke about what’s driving them to the polls after a long campaign.

Abortion, the economy and fears for American democracy were among the main concerns for voters ABC News spoke with over two weeks — from Oct. 17-31.

Abortion: GOP positions too extreme for some?

Michigan voter 78-year-old Ruth Rehberg said she remembered when women had to go into “black, dark rooms” for an abortion and had serious health complications if it were done incorrectly.

“It is criminal not to allow women to have control over their own bodies,” said Rehberg. ” How do I tell you … how truly important this is to all women. It’s truly more important than any other vote I’ve ever done.”

Michigan voter Rick Rainville stood on the side of the road holding an anti-Proposition 3 sign. Proposition 3 would enshrine abortion rights into the Michigan State constitution.

“I think we can do so much better by women than proving them practically the only option when they are in a tough, tough situation than to kill their own flesh and blood, and we’ve got to provide better solutions,” said Rainville.

Other Michiganders like Frances Janis, a Democrat, take a more moderate stance.

“I am not in charge of another woman’s right to do what she desires with her body,” said Janis. “That is her right to make decisions for her body and not the government’s right.”

Frank Cao from Rochester, Michigan, supported current Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and said Proposition 3 will pass and the abortion access issue will push people to vote.

“Clearly, events in Kansas and elsewhere have shown it’s not particularly popular with most citizens in this country,” said Cao.

Roquesha O’Niel said that not only does she support Proposition 3, but she has been lobbying in front of businesses to encourage more votes.

“I’m encouraging my friends, my family my neighbors, I’m making phone calls I’m meeting people in grocery lines,” said O’Niel.

Abortion does not register as an issue for some Republicans who said they are focused instead on the economy.

“Abortion doesn’t even rank my top five [most important topics],” said Michigan voter Jenny Evans. “I just don’t think it’s a realistic thing that people are debating right now.”

Economy blues? Dems blame no one, GOP blames Democrats

Democrat voters seemed hesitant to blame any party for rising inflation, but GOP voters almost unanimously blamed Democrats.

“Whether you’re Democrat or Republican, you still got to deal with the economy and inflation all the same, so I wouldn’t really put it on a particular party,” said Virginia voter Jeffery Overton.

Janis said she doesn’t blame anyone for the rising costs.

“[Inflation] hasn’t deterred me from choosing who I vote for. Because inflation happens because of extenuating circumstances at times and COVID was the perfect crisis,” said Janis.

“The economy is not the Democrats fault or the Republicans fault. If it were so, then why do 13 other countries have higher inflation rates than we have?” said Democrat Carl Tate of Arizona.

Other Democrats said they blame corporate greed for driving up prices.

“Instead of saying inflation say corporate profits,” said Whitmer supporter Barbra Spiece. “It’s proven. Even Kroger is making record profits and we are all paying more at Krogers.”

“I don’t think anyone is talking about the root causes which you know like corporate greed is a lot of it,” said Cao. “Politicians on both sides are really failing.”

Independent Michigan voter Donna Bourgoin said she does not like any of the candidates running in the midterm and wishes she had more options. She said she has not decided who she will vote for for governor.

“The high prices, the gas prices, the prices of food, I know my parents are a little bit elderly and they don’t drive anywhere because they can’t afford the gas,” said Bourgoin. “The food prices are out of their reach almost now.”
Both red and blue voters fear losing

An 86-year-old Democratic voter said that she is afraid for American democracy after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

“The insurrection — it’s unbelievable that that could happen in this country. And right now, Arizona is kind of in that,” said Shirley Tounge. “It needs to be challenged and people need to know, we can lose our democracy.”

Tate said that he thinks this election is the most in danger democracy has ever been in for the United States.

“I don’t even think the Revolutionary War was as bad to our democracy as this is,” said Tate. “This is very scary. I have four daughters, six grandchildren. And I’m fearful that if we don’t make this vote happen in the correct way and their future lives, in a very perilous situation.”

Two other Arizonian seniors in their 70s said that they are relying on young people to vote.

“If we have any hope that that young people to see their future with us, so for our kids and our grandkids that’s what we’re here for,” said Martha Todd.

One of those Arizonian youth is David Ramirez, 20, who voted for Joe Biden in the last election.

“It’s kind of sad seeing that they’re delusional; into thinking that the election was stolen/rigged,” Ramirez said of some Republicans. “We’re a democracy. We’re a fair democracy … it kind of shows a character that they’re not willing to accept and accept the defeat.”

Sun City West, Arizona, voter Nancy Shubert said that she lives in a Republican area and believes some of those claiming to be Christians don’t practice what they preach.

“I’m worried about the downfall of our country, the downfall of democracy,” said Shubert. “We’re just losing everything. As women, we’re losing all our rights. Anybody who is not white Christian mainstream, is is considered persona non grata.”

Republican voter Tom Macigewski said that he is supporting Republican candidate for Michigan governor Tutor Dixon because he wants to preserve the American dream for his grandchildren.

“We have to take the state back,” said Macigewski. “We have to get rid of the programming that’s going on with our citizens. The propaganda that’s being spewed out the things of personal liberties that are being taken away from us.”

“We need to get Whitmer out of office,” said independent Holli Evans. “She’s been terrible for [Michigan] for the last four years, and we need some fresh blood in there that’s really going to change things and make our state better.”

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(WASHINGTON) — As early Election Day results come in on Tuesday, it will likely appear that Republican candidates vying for any number of the federal or statewide races appear to be leading their Democratic opponents, even by large margins.

Their leads will dwindle, or crumble completely, after perceived “dumps” of votes are recorded by state election officials who count mail-in and absentee ballots in the days — or even weeks — following Election Day.

This phenomenon was popularized as the “red mirage” or the “blue shift” after the 2020 presidential election, when former President Donald Trump took a deceptive lead in several competitive states on Election Day due to delays in counting of Democrats’ mail-in ballots — their preferred method of voting due to the COVID-19 pandemic — only to eventually dissipate when the entire reserve of votes was totaled.

The illusion was a principal component of Trump and his allies’ false claims that the contest was fraudulent upon his ultimate loss to Joe Biden.

Why and where might we see a ‘red mirage’

This is likely to occur again on Tuesday, according to election experts, because of the same cocktail of factors that led to a “red mirage” in 2020: Democrats have continued to use mail-in voting more than their Republican counterparts, while some of the same decisive states will take a longer time to tally their mail-in, absentee and provisional ballots due to state laws that prohibit their count until late stages in the electoral process.

And it’s likely to occur in some of the same states where the phenomenon presented itself last cycle — in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — battleground states that also happen to feature some of the most hotly-contested races of the election season.

“All signs point to the fact that it’s going to be extreme in certain critical states again, and Pennsylvania top among them,” Lawrence Norden, senior director of the Brennan Center’s Elections & Government Program said, noting that certain candidates may claim false victories or legally attempt to stop or slow vote counts.

“I am very worried. I’m very worried that election denial forces are much more organized than they were in 2020,” Norden said.

Every state canvasses vote counts at a different pace, and one of the foremost causes of delayed completion of the unofficial count in 2020 is that some states didn’t even allow the processing of mail-in ballots until polls are closed on Election Day.

That was the case in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and despite asks from bipartisan election officials for their legislatures to change state laws to make tallying votes easier and earlier, ballots still cannot be counted until after 8 or 9 p.m. on Nov. 8. In Pennsylvania, counties will participate in “marathon counting,” meaning that they can start processing votes at 7 a.m. on Election Day, but counting still must begin at 8 p.m.

In Michigan, officials can process ballots just two days ahead of Election Day. And while canvassing laws have remained the same in some states, expanded mail-in voting access stands permanent, even after serious threats of the pandemic.

Counting of mail-in ballots

“A lot of states are expanding the rights to vote by mail, but they have not expanded as much the ability of states to do the canvassing and especially in pre-canvassing of mail-in votes,” said David Alexander Bateman, an associate professor of government at Cornell University.

They’re different from places like Florida, where election officials not only process mail-in ballots before Election Day, but release counts within 30 minutes of poll closings.

In places like Arizona, which also begins processing absentee votes before Election Day, the sheer number of people who use mail-in ballots make processing time lag. More than three million Arizonans have requested mail-in ballots this cycle, according to the U.S. Elections Project.

Experts expect election denialism, legal challenges

“In some states the numbers are so huge, like in Arizona, in terms of the number of people that are voting by mail. And though they have a head start, it’s not enough of one, so the counting is going to take a little bit longer,” Norden said.

Late mail-in ballots received in 2020 skewed more Republican than earlier ballots in Arizona, so a “blue mirage” might lead votes to toggle in 2022 — initially skewing Democratic, before adding Election Day and late arriving mail voters which could swing the vote toward the GOP.

The shift in vote totals doesn’t always favor Democrats. About 90 minutes after polls closed in Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio, FiveThirtyEight reports, Biden looked competitive in these three states — he even led in North Carolina and Ohio. But that changed as officials reported more results, and Trump wound up carrying all three states.

“I think it’s important to make clear like nobody’s winning or losing on Election Day. The votes are all in, for the most part, it’s just a question of what states chose to count and when,” Norden said.

Bateman agreed: “Just as football games do not end at the first quarter, you play out the game and it ends when the game ends. And whoever’s in the lead at the end of the game wins. It’s the same with elections. An election does not end, and it has ever ended on Election Day.”

Nearly 21 million voters have returned mail ballots so far this election, according to the University of Florida’s Michael McDonald, an expert on American elections who is tracking early voting numbers, while over 57 million have requested mail-in ballots.

For the second straight election cycle, Democrats have been casting their ballots through mail-in voting methods much more than Republicans — a trend that presented itself in 2020 when COVID presented a clear danger to voting in-person at crowded polls.

According to the U.S. Elections Project’s analysis of states that report party registration data, Democrats requested more than six million more mail-in ballots this election cycle than Republicans.

Before the last election, there was little partisan slant between who voted by mail, with Republicans — who tend to be older voters — usually preferring the method.

“A lot more people are using mail-in ballots, and those people are now, for the first time, those using them are disproportionately Democrats,” Bateman said.

After the polls closed on Election Night in 2020 and then-President Trump began claiming that mail-in voting was “rife with fraud,” as his early lead diminished, Republicans have been even less incentivized to cast mail-in ballots, the election experts said.

In Pennsylvania, where Trump preemptively claimed victory in 2020 after declaring that the counting of ballots in Philadelphia and other places across the state be stopped, about 1.4 million voters have requested mail-in ballots this year, a number lower than the 2.8 million requested in the last election, but much higher than years prior.

Norden said he’s “absolutely” expecting election denialism similar to claims circulated in 2020 to happen in states like Pennsylvania again, and perhaps more filing of legal action aimed at stopping the processing of mail-in and early votes. In 2020, Trump and his allies filed lawsuits to halt the counting of ballots in Michigan and Pennsylvania. In Nevada, home to another Senate race that could determine the balance of power in Congress, the current GOP nominee, Adam Laxalt, filed numerous lawsuits after the presidential election in 2020, attempting to stop the counting of ballots in Clark County.

Laxalt told radio host Wayne Allyn Root in the days after officially announcing his candidacy that he planned to construct a team to “come up with a full plan, do our best to try to secure this election, get as many observers as we can, and file lawsuits early, if there are lawsuits we can file to try to tighten up the election.”

“Frankly, there’s been signals from some of the election deniers already that they’re going to claim that the count should stop on election night,” Norden said.

Al Schmidt, the sole Republican on the Philadelphia County Board of Elections who had seen the canvassing of ballots in 2020 and later testified before the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack, wrote an op-ed on Friday in the Pennsylvania Capitol Star.

Schmidt warned Pennsylvania to again expect some shifting of the unofficial vote tallies, which isn’t indicative of anything nefarious.

“Most of the in-person results from polling places should be posted before midnight, but because county officials can’t begin processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, a significant portion of the vote cannot be published until later at night or the following days,” he wrote.

“And because more Democrats than Republicans use mail-in ballots (another consequence of partisan misinformation), most of the votes published later will go toward candidates of one party. This ‘blue shift’ or ‘red mirage’ has occurred election after election and is not indicative of anything untoward or suspicious,” he said.

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(WASHINGTON) — Arizona abortion rights advocates have been fielding confusing abortion laws in the state for months. Now, those advocates say the midterm elections are critical for determining access to abortion in the state.

Abortion providers in Arizona have been living in “legal limbo” since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, abortion rights advocates say.

A near-total abortion ban in the state with language dating back to 1864 was never technically repealed after the 1973 ruling of Roe. After the overturning this summer, the state’s current attorney general, Mark Brnovich, sought to reinstate that territorial-era ban, which a Pima County judge did in September.

Abortion providers and patients had to shift again when a court of appeals halted the 1864 law, instead invoking a 15-week ban that continues to be in place. However, that court is currently considering arguments on that law, as well as the 1864 law.

Going into the midterm elections, abortion rights advocates say the incoming elected officials will determine what happens next.

The Republican candidates for governor and attorney general, Kari Lake and Abe Hamadeh, said earlier this summer they would “follow the law” in regards to an abortion ban, but have stayed quiet on the subject in recent weeks as the election nears.

“Their silence speaks volumes,” said Kristin Mayes, a Democrat who is running for attorney general. “That’s for a reason. They know how absolutely unpopular this 1901 law is. They know how indefensible it is, and they know that when Nov. 8 comes, the people of Arizona are going to resoundingly reject this extreme abortion ban, this attack on the people of Arizona, by voting them down.”

Lake and Hamadeh did not respond to ABC News’ request for comment about Mayes’ statement.

Advocates are looking to Katie Hobbs, the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate, and Mayes to counter a possible ban. While the two could not pass or overturn a law already in effect, they could impact whether that law is enforced or veto further bans passed by state legislature. Both Hobbs and Mayes have pledged to not sign or prosecute any laws that ban abortion.

Abortion rights advocates in the state say Mayes’ election is critical to ensuring abortion access.

“[Brnovich’s] office is the one who is fighting to lift the injunction,” Amy Fitch-Heacock, founding committee member and communications director of Arizonans for Reproductive Freedom, told ABC News. “If we have Kris Mayes in office, the very first thing she can do is say we are not prioritizing this case anymore.”

Brittany Fonteno, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona, told ABC News the reason Arizona abortion laws have been in such limbo is because of Brnovich’s actions in the attorney general seat.

“[Brnovich] decided to go to the court and ask the court to lift an injunction on the near total ban on abortion,” Fonteno said. “Nobody asked for this. He made this completely politically motivated move by putting politics over patients.”

“We believe this is the best and most accurate state of the law,” Brnovich said in a July statement. “We know this is an important issue to so many Arizonans, and our hope is that the court will provide clarity and uniformity for our state.”

Electing Hamadeh, Fonteno said, will ensure abortion bans are enforced, which Fonteno claims is not what the majority of Arizonans want. According to a Change Research poll from earlier this year, 71% of Arizonans oppose making abortion illegal.

ABC News has heard from some Arizona residents who say the Republicans do not plan to fully ban abortion.

“It’s not [totally banned]. That’s a scare tactic. That’s an absolute scare tactic,” Karen Deadrick said this summer. “And you know what, they can go to California and get there first, and if they want to, I think the Californians will even pay for you to travel there to get them to get there. So you know, if you’re really passionate about it, go there and get one.”

“They’re making it sound like Republicans want to just stop all of it,” Krista Smiley, another resident, told ABC News this summer. “That’s not true. It’s not true. There’s Christian organizations. There’s stuff out there to help.”

For abortion rights advocates whose work includes funding travel, medical and general expenses for Arizonans seeking abortion, electing an attorney general they know will not prosecute the procedure is critical, Eloisa Lopez, executive director of Pro-Choice Arizona and Abortion Fund of Arizona, told ABC News.

“Since June, our state has kind of been flipping back and forth about every two weeks with access, no access, and then access again, and then limited access, so it’s really been a state of chaos,” Lopez said. “Not just for patients who are trying to get appointments, but also for us organizations on the ground, who have to help people move to get their care.”

Beyond prosecution, the governor’s ability to veto legislation from the state legislature will also determine the state of abortion access in Arizona, Lopez said.

“Whoever moves into these positions of power, they are going to determine the course of our state, not just in the short term, [but] for the next couple of years while they hold office,” Lopez said.

New anti-abortion rights laws, she said, would “make it even harder for our state to get back to a level where we do have access and protections” because the more a state restricts abortion, “the longer it takes for us to repair and build it back into our communities.”

Fitch-Heacock added that while Hobbs has pledged to veto any legislation that further bans abortion in the state, Lake is likely to sign on to Republican efforts to limit access.

“We’ve already seen the Republican blueprint,” Fitch-Heacock said. “We know that they want a nationwide 15-week ban.”

However, Lake, like Hamadeh, has refrained from commenting on abortion during the last several weeks of her campaign. Lake is currently polling ahead of Hobbs, with a 64% chance of election, according to FiveThirtyEight.

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(WASHINGTON) — Former Cranston, Rhode Island Mayor Allen Fung, a Republican, is running a strong campaign in a House district President Joe Biden won by 13 points in 2020, threatening an upset with a message of moderation.

“I’m not into divisiveness. I’m not into spreading any type of election denials. I’m my own person. I’m going to be that voice of moderation down there. And I believe that I will bring that voice of centrism,” Fung told ABC News. “Hopefully, it’s not just myself.”

However, it’s becoming increasingly unclear who would fit the mold of the type of moderate Fung hopes will join him in Congress.

What counts as moderation in a Republican Party transformed under Donald Trump is unclear, as strategists say ideological labels are getting increasingly scrambled by emphasis on personality and attitudes toward the former president.

Some lawmakers, like Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, tout their moderate bona fides, noting their centrist policies on social issues and fiscal conservatism. Candidates like Fung and Colorado GOP Senate nominee Joe O’Dea are deploying similar playbooks as they seek to follow them to Washington.

Yet, the term “moderate” is getting bandied about more broadly, both in the media and among party operators and leaders, though in reality, party members say those cast as moderates are those who have lower key personalities and keep some distance with Trump, the GOP’s de facto leader.

“We’ve redefined conservatism, or I think the media largely has kind of in collusion with Trumpworld, redefined conservatism as Trumpism, and they’re not the same thing,” said former House GOP leadership aide Doug Heye. “And then if you’ve realtered what that term means, well, then moderate has to mean something different as well.”

“I don’t think there are many moderates, if any, in the Republican party today,” added Republican National Committee member Bill Palatucci. “It’s kind of an extinct breed. These days, the fight is between what I consider true conservatives and Trump apologists.”

Among those who have gotten slapped with the label of “moderate” include lawmakers like retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., and outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., who lost her primary to a Trump-backed challenger this year. Both supporting Trump’s impeachment after last year’s Capitol riot, but Toomey boasts a 92% rating from the American Conservative Union, and Cheney has a 77% rating, based on their voting records.

Another Republican touted as a modern moderate is Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who won his seat in 2021 with a laser focus on education while refusing to bear hug Trump.

Yet Youngkin has pushed for bans on the teaching of “divisive concepts” in schools, called for requiring transgender students to have formal parental permission to identify with their gender identity and has looked to pull out of an agreement with other states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Rumored to have an eye on a White House run in 2024, he’s also been campaigning with people like Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who has spread conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.

Strategists say the misidentification of moderates is on the rise as voters become less attuned with policy priorities.

“If you’re not raising your voice with pithy one liners on cable news, you’re a moderate. In our politics it’s become tone over substance. We do focus groups, raise your hand if you’ve been to the candidate’s website, no one ever raises their hand,” said one GOP strategist working on House races.

“So, how could Pat Toomey be a moderate? Well, because he doesn’t come across as an asshole. That’s it, period, end of discussion. We are living in a cable news, social media political time.”

And even for voters who remain invested in conservative policies, Trump thoroughly revamped what counts as Republican orthodoxy.

On domestic issues, Trump threw fiscal conservatism out the window, favoring heavy government spending that increased the debt. And on the global stage, he overhauled the GOP’s preference for free trade for one focused on “fair trade” forwarded by tariffs. And militarily, Trump shunned foreign interventions, a reversal for a party that historically advocated for a muscular armed presence overseas.

“I remember conservatives complaining about Ronald Reagan and big spending and some of his nominees and so forth. They held his feet to the fire. No one helped Donald Trump’s feet to a matchstick,” Heye said. “Donald Trump loves spending government money. And part of what that did is it exploded our deficit and our debt. And Republicans were put in the position of going along with Donald Trump on pretty much everything.”

To be sure, Democrats are facing an identity schism of their own. Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., have thwarted marquee Democratic policies in the 50-50 Senate and kept alive an ongoing ideological tug-of-war.

Republicans’ divides, meanwhile, are largely driven less by policy and more by Trump’s vice-like grip on the GOP grassroots.

“If anyone has ever discussed publicly, Donald Trump, as an existential threat to the Republican Party, they are outside the tent and will find no flap to bring them back in,” said one former Trump administration official.

“Those of us who are around Trump, I wouldn’t cross the street to put Liz Cheney out if she was on fire. And it’s almost entirely because she just couldn’t find it in her devotion to the Republican Party to support the Republican president of the United States. I mean, she did for quite some time and then she just fell off the wagon. From our perspective, it’s because when she walked away from Trump, she walked away from the Republican Party,” the former official said.

However, some party strategists and members express concern that such rigidity could leave races in some parts of the country off the table.

O’Dea, the GOP Senate nominee in Colorado, has voiced repeated opposition to Trump and taken moderate stances on issues like abortion and healthcare. That tact has made the race against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, in a blue-leaning state surprisingly competitive, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Heidi Ganahl, who early in her campaign flirted with election conspiracies, is anticipated to lose her challenge to Democratic Gov. Jared Polis by double digits.

“I do think that to Joe represents a kind of Republican that will need to be nominated in future elections if Republicans are ever going to come back,” said former Colorado GOP Chair Dick Wadhams. “Heidi got in trouble early on because she threw in with the election conspiracy crowd. She has been paying a price for that ever since.”

“If he pulls an upset, which I still think could happen, I think that there could be a lot of lessons drawn from Joe’s campaign in other states,” Wadhams said.

However, the label “moderate” is increasingly associated with the derogatory moniker “RINO,” or Republican in name only, Wadhams said, threatening ideologically moderate candidates like O’Dea in primaries and making it harder to ultimately win office.

“I think the traditional conservative or moderate labels don’t really apply in today’s Republican Party because I don’t think there’s an ideological difference on issues of the day. A conservative Republican and a moderate Republican are still going to be, nine times out of 10, about the same on every issue facing the country,” GOP pollster Robert Blizzard said.

That’s firmly shifting the ideological spectrum of lawmakers still in the party further to the right.

When asked who would be considered a moderate in today’s GOP, the former Trump administration official pointed to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

McConnell has a lifetime 87% rating from the American Conservative Union.

Luke Barr contributed to this report.

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