(WASHINGTON) — The judge overseeing former President Donald Trump’s federal election interference case on Friday granted an extension requested by special counsel Jack Smith’s office.
Smith on Thursday requested a delay in responding to a scheduling order from U.S District Judge Tanya Chutkan, citing issues related to the Supreme Court’s recent decision granting presidents immunity from prosecution for certain acts taken while in office.
Smith’s office said Thursday it continues “to assess the new precedent set forth last month” by the Supreme Court in tandem with “other Department of Justice components.”
A status report on the case that was initially due Friday is now officially moved to Aug. 30. A status conference that had been scheduled for Aug. 16 will now be Sept. 5.
Judge Chutkan resumed control of the case last Friday following the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling.
Trump last August pleaded not guilty to charges of undertaking a “criminal scheme” to overturn the results of the 2020 election by enlisting a slate of so-called “fake electors,” using the Justice Department to conduct “sham election crime investigations,” trying to enlist the vice president to “alter the election results,” and promoting false claims of a stolen election as the Jan. 6 riot raged — all in an effort to subvert democracy and remain in power.
(DILLON, Mont.) — A suspect was identified through DNA in the 1996 cold case murder of a 15-year-old girl in Montana. But the suspected killer won’t go to trial because he died by suicide just hours after he was interviewed by police, authorities said.
On Sept. 21, 1996, 15-year-old Danielle “Danni” Houchins was raped and suffocated in shallow water at the Gallatin River, the Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office said.
The case went unsolved for decades.
A partial DNA profile from a hair found on Houchins’ body was submitted to CODIS — the nationwide law enforcement DNA database — but no matches were found, the sheriff’s office said Thursday.
The DNA was then sent to Parabon NanoLabs to try to solve the crime through genetic genealogy, according to authorities and Parabon.
Genetic genealogy takes an unknown suspect’s DNA left at a crime scene and identifies it using family members who voluntarily submit DNA samples to a DNA database. Police can then create a much larger family tree than if they only used databases like CODIS.
“In a significant breakthrough last month, DNA evidence collected at the time of Houchins’ death was matched to 55-year-old Paul Hutchinson of Dillon, Montana,” the sheriff’s office said.
Hutchinson, who worked for the Montana Bureau of Land Management for 22 years, had no criminal history and was married with two children, the sheriff’s office said.
On the evening of July 23, detectives interviewed Hutchinson for nearly two hours, authorities said.
During the interview, Hutchinson “displayed extreme nervousness … sweated profusely, scratched his face, and chewed on his hand,” the sheriff’s office said.
Early the next morning, Hutchinson called the authorities, said he needed help and then hung up, the sheriff’s office said. Responders found him dead from a self-inflicted gunshot wound on the side of a road, the sheriff’s office said.
After the suicide, authorities confirmed that the “DNA evidence was a complete match to Paul Hutchinson,” Gallatin County Sheriff Dan Springer said at a news conference Thursday.
In 1996, Hutchinson was a student at Montana State University, the sheriff’s office said. Investigators said they believe Houchins and Hutchinson didn’t know each other. The sheriff described it as a “crime of opportunity” by an “evil man.”
(CASCAVEL, Brazil) — There are no survivors after a Voepass flight carrying 62 people crashed in Brazil on Friday, according to authorities.
The passenger plane was traveling from Cascavel, Brazil, and was bound for Guarulhos Airport, near Sao Paulo, the airline said.
The plane had 58 passengers and four crew members on board, the airline said. All died in the crash, State of Sao Paulo firefighters confirmed to ABC News.
There is no confirmation of how the accident occurred, the airline said.
Flight 2283 took off without any operational restrictions, with all systems capable of carrying out the flight, Voepass said.
The crash was reported to military police at 1:28 p.m. local time.
The 14-year-old two-engine ATR 72 model aircraft was flying at 17,000 feet when it began its rapid descent, according to FlightRadar24.
The plane fell close to a residential building in Vinhedo outside the city of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo federal police said.
One resident was injured, police said.
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, at an event Friday asked the crowd to observe one minute of silence for the victims of the crash.
Footage of the incident captured the plane falling in a spiral out of the sky followed by a large fireball.
The governor of Sao Paulo is heading back from Vitoria to manage the situation, officials said.
Brazil’s civil aviation agency said in a statement they will be investigating.
ATR, the aircraft manufacturer, said its specialists are “fully engaged to support both the investigation and the customer.”
“Our first thoughts are with all the individuals affected by this event,” the company said in a statement.
(CASCAVEL, Brazil) — All passengers are believed to be dead after a Voepass plane carrying 62 people crashed in Brazil on Friday, according to authorities.
The passenger plane was traveling from Cascavel, Brazil, and was bound for Guarulhos Airport, near Sao Paulo, the airline said.
The plane had 58 passengers and four crew members on board, the airline said. Military police confirmed to ABC News that they believe all passengers died.
There is no confirmation of how the accident occurred, the airline said.
The crash was reported to military police at 1:28 p.m. local time.
The two-engine ATR 72 model aircraft fell close to a residential building in Vinhedo outside the city of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo federal police said.
One resident was injured, police said.
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, at an event Friday asked the crowd to observe one minute of silence for the victims of the crash.
Footage of the incident captured the plane falling in a spiral out of the sky followed by a large fireball.
The governor of Sao Paulo is heading back from Vitoria to manage the situation, officials said.
Brazil’s civil aviation agency said in a statement they will be investigating.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
(NEW YORK) — Mortgage rates this week dropped to their lowest level in more than a year, delivering some long-sought relief for homebuyers.
The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stands at 6.47%, Freddie Mac said on Thursday. That figure marks a drop of more than a percentage point from a peak attained last year after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates in an effort to fight inflation.
The Fed has held interest rates steady at their highest level in two decades, however. So, why are mortgage rates plummeting?
Experts who spoke to ABC News attributed the drop to a widely held expectation that the Fed will begin to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. A weaker-than-expected jobs report last week bolstered those expectations, triggering a drop in yields for 10-year treasuries, which in turn sent mortgage rates plummeting, they added.
The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond, or the amount paid to a bondholder annually, fell sharply last week after the Fed signaled a coming interest rate cut and a disappointing jobs report days later appeared to affirm such expectations. Mortgage rates closely track the movement of 10-year treasuries.
“These 10-year treasury rates are going to directly translate into lower mortgage rates, part of which we’re observing in the recent data,” Julia Fonseca, a professor at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, told ABC News.
The chances of an interest rate cut in September are all but certain, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment. Market observers are split roughly down the middle about whether the Fed will impose its typical cut of a quarter of a percentage point or opt for a larger half-point cut.
“That jobs report made markets reevaluate the path of future interest rate cuts,” Lu Liu, a professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania who studies real estate, told ABC News.
“Because the mortgage rates are priced off of current treasury rates, the treasury rates have already incorporated these expectations for future rate cuts,” Liu added.
Experts disagree about the outlook for mortgage rates, since the trajectory depends on future economic performance and the Fed’s response to it, which can prove difficult to predict, they said.
The economy has been gradually cooling for months, alongside falling inflation. The U.S. has repeatedly defied previous warnings of an impending recession, though economists disagree about whether current conditions pose an impending risk.
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate at Columbia University Business School, said he expects the economic slowdown to continue. That will trigger interest rate cuts and falling mortgage rates, he added.
“We’ve reached peak interest rates,” Nieuwerburgh told ABC News. “Mortgage rates are likely to come back down for the next several years.”
However, he acknowledged the difficulty of predicting economic outcomes and the possibility of a reversal that could lead to interest rate hikes. “Never say never,” Nieuwerburgh said.
Liu, of the University of Pennsylvania, said market observers will closely watch incoming data to determine whether the recent jobs report is part of a larger trend indicating an accelerated economic slowdown.
For months, many observers have expected a “soft landing,” in which inflation returns to normal while the economy averts a recession. However, the steeper-than-expected cooldown of the labor market may indicate that the economy is headed toward a downturn after all, Liu said.
“People are concerned that the risk of a hard landing has increased,” Liu said. “Right now, it’s a wait-and-see moment.”
Still, the current drop in mortgage rates may not rekindle the housing market, experts said, citing a phenomenon known as the “lock-in effect.”
While mortgage rates have fallen, they remain well above the rates enjoyed by most current homeowners, who may be reluctant to put their homes on the market and risk a much higher rate on their next mortgage. In turn, the market could continue to suffer from a lack of supply, keeping home prices at elevated levels, said Fonseca, of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
As of March, roughly 60% of homeowners carried a mortgage rate at or below 4%, Fonseca added.
“We still might see those borrowers reluctant to give up those mortgage rates,” she said. “If they’re locked in, we might not see very much movement.”
(NEW YORK) — Debby, which weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression Thursday afternoon, is slamming the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast with heavy rain on Friday.
Debby made landfall in Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on Monday and crawled up the East Coast all week.
Here’s how the news is developing:
DC faces flash flood warning
A flash food warning is in effect in Washington, D.C., and the surrounding areas until 11 a.m.
The rainfall rate could reach a dangerous 2.5 to 4.5 inches per hour.
Latest forecast
The remnants of Debby are targeting the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast on Friday. Virginia has recorded more than 8 inches of rain and Delaware has seen more than 9 inches of rain.
At least six tornadoes were reported across North Carolina, Virginia and Delaware over the last 24 hours.
The worst of the heavy rain will move into central Pennsylvania, upstate New York and northern New England throughout the day. Up to 6 inches of rain is possible, bringing a high threat for flash flooding.
High winds and a potential isolated tornado are in the forecast along the Interstate 95 corridor, from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia to Washington, D.C.
By Saturday morning, the remnants of Debby will exit the Northeast.
Tornado watch issued in Baltimore, Philadelphia
A tornado watch is in effect in Baltimore, Philadelphia and much of New Jersey and the western Hudson Valley until 2 p.m.
Tornado watch extends in Washington-Baltimore area
A Debby-related tornado watch has been extended through 7 a.m. Friday ET for the Washington, D.C.-Baltimore area.
Debby weakens to tropical depression
Debby weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression Thursday afternoon as the system continues to bring rain and flooding to the East Coast.
Over 80,000 without power in North Carolina
More than 80,000 customers are without power in North Carolina as Tropical Storm Debby rips through the state.
Gov. Roy Cooper said he’s activated 374 National Guard members and swift water rescue teams throughout the state.
Flooding has been reported on major roads, including Interstate 95.
Man found dead in tornado-leveled home in North Carolina
A man was found dead in his home Thursday morning after a tornado tore through overnight, according to the fire chief in Rock Ridge, North Carolina.
“The tornado had completely leveled the house. … We were initially unable to locate the victim,” Fire Chief Walt Williamson said. “We called in the FEMA rescue team, which brought in a canine unit to help us find and locate the individual.”
“The victim was likely asleep in his bedroom when the tornado struck,” Williamson said.
“This was an incredibly challenging task, both logistically and emotionally. It’s a lot of destruction to witness,” he said.
The tornado also caused major damage to a school in the area, Williamson said.
“The school’s roof was torn off,” Williamson said. “Thankfully, this happened in the middle of the night when no one was there. If it had been during school hours, it could have been much worse.”
Four tornadoes have been reported Thursday morning. A tornado watch is in effect in North Carolina and Virginia until 1 p.m. ET as Debby moves inland.
-ABC News’ Matt Foster and Jason Volack
Over 120,000 without power in North Carolina
More than 120,000 customers are without power in North Carolina as Tropical Storm Debby rips through the state.
Gov. Roy Cooper said he’s activated 374 National Guard members and swift water rescue teams throughout the state.
Flooding has been reported on major roads, including Interstate 95.
Debby makes 2nd landfall in South Carolina
Tropical Storm Debby made a second landfall early on Thursday, moving over South Carolina after regaining some strength over the Atlantic.
The storm made its landfall near Bulls Bay, a coastal about 20 miles northeast of Charleston, bringing with it a major flood treat, the National Hurricane Center said.
Maximum sustained winds were at about 50 mph as the storm hit land, weather officials said.
Storm still 60 mph as it crosses South Carolina coast
As of 11 p.m. ET, the center of Tropical Storm Debby is about to cross the coast of South Carolina. It will likely cross in the next few hours.
The storm’s strength has remained unchanged, with maximum sustained winds remaining at 60 mph.
A Tropical Storm Warning continues from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Surf City, North Carolina.
Debby is currently located 25 miles east-northeast of Charleston, South Carolina and crawling at 3 mph toward the north-northwest.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect for parts of coastal North Carolina.
-ABC News Meteorologist Melissa Griffin
Debby’s winds at 60 mph as it drifts off South Carolina coast
Debby has sustained winds of 60 mph as it drifts roughly 85 miles off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, moving at 3 mph.
The tropical storm is expected to make landfall again late Wednesday into early Thursday morning near Myrtle Beach.
The storm is expected to bring significant to catastrophic flooding, with flood watches and warnings covering much of the Carolinas. The high risk for excessive rainfall stretches from North Carolina into southern Virginia on Thursday.
A tornado watch is also in effect until 11 p.m. ET Wednesday for eastern North and South Carolina, where spin-up tornadoes are possible.
-ABC News’ Daniel Amarante
When Debby is forecast to make its 2nd landfall
Tropical Storm Debby — currently sitting off shore of Charleston, South Carolina — is forecast to make a second landfall Wednesday night between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
Another 6 inches of rain is possible for the Carolinas over the next 24 hours before Debby exits the region. A rare “high risk” for flash flooding is ongoing for the Carolinas, including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Wilmington and Raleigh.
By Thursday afternoon, Debby will begin to move north. By Friday, the storm will bring heavy rain and potentially flooding to Virginia, and then will reach the Northeast and New England.
-ABC News’ Melissa Griffin
Curfew lifted in Charleston
A city-wide curfew was lifted Wednesday morning in flood-prone Charleston, South Carolina.
No rescues were needed due to the curfew, Mayor William Cogswell said.
“After assessing overnight conditions, officials have determined that it is safe to return to normal activities,” the mayor said in a statement, but he added that the ongoing storm may still lead to downed trees and power lines.
“Several roads remain closed and are barricaded,” the mayor said. “Please avoid driving around barricades or entering flood waters.”
Debby’s winds at 45 mph ahead of expected second landfall Thursday
Tropical Storm Debby’s winds slightly strengthened early Wednesday, rising to about 45 mph, as the storm moved over warm water in the Atlantic about 65 miles from the coast of Charleston, South Carolina.
Debby is expected to remain a tropical storm into Thursday, when it’s forecast to make a second landfall in South Carolina.
The National Hurricane Center said it expects the storm to not strengthen much more, maybe rising up to about 50 mph ahead of that landfall.
The storm is then forecast to continue inland overnight into Friday, with its winds slowing as it travels through North Carolina and into Virginia.
Debby is slowly moving eastward offshore
Tropical Storm Debby is slowly moving eastward offshore the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Debby is moving east at 5 mph while max sustained winds remain at 40mph, with its center currently about 50 miles east of Savannah, Georgia, as of 11 p.m. ET.
Tornado Watch remains in effect across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina, from Myrtle Beach to Morehead City until 1 a.m. ET.
Flood Watches remain in effect from Georgia to Virginia as bands of heavy rain will continue through the night.
Debby will be back over open water tonight and could gain a bit more strength over the next 24 hours, but is forecast to remain at tropical storm intensity.
A second landfall is expected in South Carolina Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning.
Six killed including two kids
At least six people have been killed from Debby, authorities said.
A 13-year-old boy was killed when a tree fell on a mobile home Monday morning in Levy County, Florida, which encompasses Cedar Key, according to the Levy County Sheriff’s Office.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with this family as they deal with this tragedy,” the sheriff’s office said in a statement. “We encourage everyone to use extreme caution as they begin to assess and clean up the damage. Downed powerlines and falling trees are among the many hazards.”
In Hillsborough County, Florida, which encompasses Tampa, a driver of a semi was killed when the truck went into a canal off Interstate 275 Monday morning, according to the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office.
Deputies recovered the semi and found the driver dead inside the cab, authorities said.
In Dixie County, Florida, a driver “lost control due to the inclement weather and wet roadway” on Sunday night, crashing into the center median guardrail and then overturning the car, the Florida Highway Patrol said.
The driver, a 38-year-old woman, and a passenger, a 12-year-old boy, were killed, authorities said.
Another passenger, a 14-year-old boy, was seriously injured, the highway patrol said.
In Gulfport, Florida, a 48-year-old man died after he tried to ride out the storm on his sailboat which was anchored off Gulfport’s Veteran’s Park, police said, according to ABC Tampa affiliate WFTS-TV.
In Moultrie, Georgia, a 19-year-old man was struck and killed by a fallen tree while he was inside a home on Monday, according to Moultrie police.
What to expect Tuesday evening
Debby is moving at just 3 mph, with its center located about 10 miles east of Savannah, Georgia, as of 5 p.m. ET.
Tornadoes are possible in South Carolina and North Carolina on Tuesday night.
After a day of heavy rainfall, the coastal cities of Savannah and Charleston, South Carolina, could see a few more inches of rain this week. Both cities are under flash flood warnings.
But going forward, the worst of the rain will be focused further north. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Wilmington, North Carolina; and Lumberton, North Carolina, are forecast to get hit the hardest over the next 24 to 36 hours.
More than 1,000 flights canceled
More than 1,000 flights have been canceled within, into or out of the U.S. on Tuesday as Debby slams the Southeast and thunderstorms strike the Northeast. Ground stops are in place at the New York City area’s three airports.
South Carolina braces for severe flooding
The threat of severe flooding is very high across South Carolina with Tropical Storm Debby “creeping across our state,” South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster warned on Tuesday.
More than 90,000 customers without power in Florida
More than 90,000 customers remain without power in Florida, more than 24 hours after Debby tore through the state.
“Restoration is taking longer in areas with flooding and heavy vegetation, as crews must wait for the water to recede and clear through debris before they can restore power,” Florida Power & Light said Tuesday morning. “Rest assured, we’ll continue working until everyone who can safely receive power is restored. Avoid these flooded areas and stay away from downed power lines.”
Charleston’s curfew extended as city faces flash flood warning
A curfew in Charleston, South Carolina, has been extended to 7 a.m. Wednesday as the flood-prone city braces for potentially life-threatening flooding.
“Residents are advised to stay off the roads unless there is an urgent emergency,” the Charleston Fire Department said.
Charleston is under a flash flood warning. Up to 1 foot of rain has already fallen in the city, with more to come.
Five killed including two kids
At least five people have been killed from Debby, authorities said.
A 13-year-old boy was killed when a tree fell on a mobile home Monday morning in Levy County, Florida, which encompasses Cedar Key, according to the Levy County Sheriff’s Office.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with this family as they deal with this tragedy,” the sheriff’s office said in a statement. “We encourage everyone to use extreme caution as they begin to assess and clean up the damage. Downed powerlines and falling trees are among the many hazards.”
In Hillsborough County, Florida, which encompasses Tampa, a driver of a semi was killed when the truck went into a canal off Interstate 275 Monday morning, according to the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office.
Deputies recovered the semi and found the driver dead inside the cab, authorities said.
In Dixie County, Florida, a driver “lost control due to the inclement weather and wet roadway” on Sunday night, crashing into the center median guardrail and then overturning the car, the Florida Highway Patrol said.
The driver, a 38-year-old woman, and a passenger, a 12-year-old boy, were killed, authorities said.
Another passenger, a 14-year-old boy, was seriously injured, the highway patrol said.
In Moultrie, Georgia, a 19-year-old man was struck and killed by a fallen tree while he was inside a home on Monday, according to Moultrie police.
19-year-old hit by tree dies in Georgia
A 19-year-old died after being hit by a tree in Moultrie, Georgia, a local coroner told ABC News affiliate WALB-TV, bringing the storm’s death toll to five.
More than 150,000 customers without power, tracker says
More than 150,000 customers were without power early Tuesday in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, according to PowerOutage.us, a tracker of energy providers.
Florida had the highest number of outages, with more than 116,000, followed by more than 26,000 in George and almost 12,000 in South Carolina.
Debby to bring historic 10-20 inches of rainfall: Forecast
Despite weakening since moving over land, Debby is still maintaining its tropical storm status, producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 45 mph.
As of 11 p.m. ET, over 150,000 customers in Florida and Georgia are still without power, according to PowerOutage.us.
With Debby’s center about 35 miles west of Brunswick, Georgia, much of the heavy rain and showers have since moved out of Florida (except for the extreme northeastern corner of the state closer to the Georgia border). However, with the storm slowing down even more, Debby will stay stuck over the Southeast for the better part of this week, meandering over Georgia and the Carolinas.
Even though the storm is expected to weaken a bit more overnight, Debby is still expected to bring historic rainfall and life-threatening flooding to portions of southeastern Georgia and the coastal areas of the Carolinas over the next few days. Rainfall totals from this event are expected to reach between 10 and 20 inches.
Already, portions of southeastern Georgia and South Carolina have seen between 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, but with rainfall rates of 1.5 to 3 inches per hour possible, flood alerts remain in effect.
A Flash Flood Warning was issued for Charleston, South Carolina, where rainfall rates between 1.5 and 2.5 inches are expected. Ongoing or new flooding is expected, with an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain possible over the next few hours.
As onshore flow continues, storm surge remains an issue in Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina. Storm surge alerts remain in effect up the Georgia and Carolina coastlines.
Rainfall aside, Debby could also generate some spin-up tornadoes as it swirls over the Georgia-South Carolina border tonight. As a result, a Tornado Watch also remains in effect for parts of southeastern Georgia and South Carolina until 1 a.m. ET.
Over the next 48 hours, Debby is expected to meander back over the Atlantic but will continue to hug the coastline before heading back inland over the Carolinas again. Slight strengthening can’t entirely be ruled out as it moves back over water, but ultimately, Debby is expected to weaken once it moves back inland. Strength aside, it will still bring significant rainfall to portions of the Southeast, which will likely lead to catastrophic flooding in some areas.
Debby is expected to eventually drift toward the north/northeast by the end of the week into the weekend. As it heads north, it will likely weaken to a tropical depression or remnant low. Regardless, heavy rainfall is still expected up the I-95 corridor heading into this weekend.
Power returns to some Florida customers as Debby moves northeast
As of Monday evening, 146,034 customers are without power in Florida, according to the latest update from a U.S. power outage map.
This marks an improvement from Monday morning, which saw nearly 300,000 customers without power at 9:50 a.m. ET, the height of outages across the state.
During a press conference in Tallahassee Monday morning, Gov. Ron DeSantis said the state’s emergency department had 17,000 linemen working to restore power in the wake of the storm.
“We have a lot of restoration personnel ready to go,” DeSantis said.
Debby weakening, but threats of tornadoes, heavy rain continue
Tropical Storm Debby continues to weaken, with maximum sustained winds down to 45 mph as of 8 p.m. ET. The weather pattern is moving very slowly to the northeast at 6 mph, and the center is currently about 50 miles east of Valdosta, Georgia.
Even though Debby is now inland and continues to weaken, many of the impacts — especially the heavy rainfall and dangerous flash flood threat — will not abate for several days. For many locations in coastal Georgia and South Carolina, the worst is yet to come.
The tornado threat continues along portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts this evening and into tonight. A Tornado Watch remains in effect from Savannah, Georgia, to Charleston, South Carolina, until at least 1 a.m. ET.
Parts of Florida, including Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch, are reporting over a foot of rain from Debby, and portions of Suwannee County, including Live Oak, are getting around a foot as well.
So far, parts of Georgia, including Savannah, are reporting nearly 4″ of rain. The same can be said for Hilton Head, South Carolina.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate across much of South Carolina overnight Monday into Tuesday, with widespread areas of heavy rain and the potential for dangerous, significant flash flooding during nighttime hours.
Coastal flooding and storm surges will continue to increase in the coming hours as winds increase and more persistent heavy rain moves in, heading into high tide along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
By late Tuesday afternoon or early evening, the center of Debby will likely be moving off the Southeast coast and into the Atlantic, where it will meander for about 24 hours before likely turning back toward the coast and potentially making another landfall as a tropical storm somewhere along the South Carolina coast by Thursday morning or afternoon.
More than 163,000 customers without power in Florida
More than 163,000 customers are without power in Florida, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks energy outages.
Curfew set for Charleston, South Carolina
A curfew will go into effect overnight for Charleston, South Carolina, due to Debby, city officials said Monday.
Thoroughfares leading into the peninsula will be closed from 11 p.m. ET Monday to noon ET Tuesday, the city said, as the region braces for potential impacts such as tropical storm-force winds, heavy rain and isolated tornadoes.
“We urge everybody to stay inside, stay indoors and do not travel,” Charleston Mayor William Cogswell said at a press briefing Monday evening.
Biden approves emergency declaration request from South Carolina
President Joe Biden has approved a request from South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster for an emergency declaration in the state due to Debby, the White House said.
The declaration allows the Federal Emergency Management Agency to mobilize and provide equipment and resources necessary.
“The President continues to urge residents to remain vigilant and heed the warnings of State and local officials,” the White House said in a statement.
North Carolina governor declares state of emergency
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency ahead of severe weather, including life-threatening flash flooding, expected across the state due to Debby.
“This weather has the potential to bring intense rain and flooding to North Carolina and we are preparing for it,” Cooper said in a statement. “As the weather becomes more severe, I urge everyone to take precautions and stay safe.”
The emergency declaration will allow for the state to mobilize resources to respond to the storm.
Tropical Storm Debby slowing down as it moves across US
Tropical Storm Debby continues to weaken and slow down in forward speed as the center moves near the Florida-Georgia state line as of 5 p.m. ET.
Maximum sustained winds are down to 50 mph, and Debby is moving to the northeast at 6 mph. The center is currently about 30 miles southeast of Valdosta, Georgia.
As of Monday afternoon, all tropical weather and storm surge alerts have been canceled across Florida’s Gulf Coast as conditions improve across much of the state.
Debby will move across southeastern Georgia through Monday evening, with the worst impacts focused there and into the Jacksonville, Florida, area. Heavy rain continues to overspread southern South Carolina as well.
-ABC News meteorologist Daniel Peck
More than 199,000 customers without power in Florida
More than 199,000 customers are without power in Florida, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks energy outages.
4 killed including 2 kids
At least four people have been killed from Debby, authorities said.
13-year-old boy was killed when a tree fell on a mobile home Monday morning in Levy County, Florida, which encompasses Cedar Key, according to the Levy County Sheriff’s Office.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with this family as they deal with this tragedy,” the sheriff’s office said in a statement. “We encourage everyone to use extreme caution as they begin to assess and clean up the damage. Downed powerlines and falling trees are among the many hazards.”
In Hillsborough County, Florida, which encompasses Tampa, a driver of a semi was killed when the truck went into a canal off Interstate 275 Monday morning, according to the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office.
Deputies recovered the semi and found the driver dead inside the cab, authorities said.
“It’s just heartbreaking,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told ABC News Live. “We really ask everyone, one, to be aware of the weather situations in your area, and then heed the warnings. Especially the high wind and the water.”
In Dixie County, Florida, a driver “lost control due to the inclement weather and wet roadway” on Sunday night, crashing into the center median guardrail and then overturning the car, the Florida Highway Patrol said.
The driver, a 38-year-old woman, and a passenger, a 12-year-old boy, were killed, authorities said.
Another passenger, a 14-year-old boy, was seriously injured, the highway patrol said.
Flash flood emergency issued in Suwannee County, Florida
A flash flood emergency has been issued in Suwannee County in north Florida, northwest of Gainesville, where officials are reporting that water is entering structures.
Ten to 15 inches of rain has inundated the county so far and another 3 to 6 inches of rain is expected.
-ABC News’ Dan Peck
More than 1,600 flights canceled
More than 1,600 flights have been canceled within, into or out of the U.S. on Monday, and that number is expected to continue to climb.
American Airlines is seeing the biggest impacts because of its hubs in Miami and Charlotte, North Carolina.
American Airlines said it canceled operations at airports in Gainesville, Sarasota and Tallahassee until noon on Monday.
Sunday was one of the worst air travel days of the year with more than 2,400 cancellations.
Biden briefed on storm
President Joe Biden was briefed Monday morning on the administration’s ongoing response to Debby, according to a White House official.
On Saturday, Biden approved Florida’s request for an emergency declaration and deployed rescue personnel, meals and water, the official said.
The Biden administration is in touch with officials from Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has deployed staff to Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina as the storm moves north, the official said.
More than 300,000 customers without power in Florida
More than 300,000 customers are without power in Florida Monday morning, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks energy outages.
More than 1,200 flights canceled
More than 1,200 flights have been canceled within, into or out of the U.S. on Monday, and that number is expected to continue to climb.
American Airlines is seeing the biggest impacts because of its hubs in Miami and Charlotte, North Carolina.
Sunday was one of the worst air travel days of the year with more than 2,400 cancellations.
Storm surge, flooding major threats
Storm surge and flooding are major threats to Florida as Hurricane Debby slams the state, Gov. Ron DeSantis warned Monday.
Significant flooding has already impacted the Bradenton and Sarasota County area up to North Florida, he said.
More than 250,000 customers without power in Florida
More than 250,000 customers are without power in Florida Monday morning, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks energy outages.
Debby makes landfall in Florida
Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center said.
More than 135,000 customers without power in Florida, tracker says
More than 135,000 customers were without power in Florida early Monday, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks energy outages.
Debby approaches landfall with 80 mph winds
Hurricane Debby is “very near” landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center said at 5 a.m. ET.
“Expected to bring life-threatening storm surge in portions of Florida and major flooding in the southeastern United States,” the center said in an update.
The Category 1 storm had maximum sustained winds of an about 80 mph as it approached Big Bend, a northern area near the Panhandle, the center said.
Debby strengthens, with maximum sustained winds up to 80 mph
Hurricane Debby continued to strengthen, with maximum sustained winds rising to 80 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center.
More than 10 inches of rain fell on the west coast of Florida, around the Tampa Bay area, where water rescues have been on going near Clearwater. Significant flooding also has been reported in Fort Myers area.
Storm surge has been rising quickly now along the Big Bend area in Florida, from Cedar Key to Keaton Beach, where up to 10 feet of Gulf water could inundate the coastline. The storm is forecast to make landfall in that area on Monday morning.
Coast Guard rescues two adrift in sailboat off Florida coast
Two people were rescued Sunday from a boat that was adrift in about 20-foot seas off the coast of Boca Grande, Florida, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
The boaters were airlifted from their 34-foot sailboat after the vessel lost its sail about 73 miles off shore, the guard said.
The sailboat had been on course for Tarpon Springs from Key West, officials said. A friend of the boaters contacted the Coast Guard at about 5 p.m. Saturday, telling officials they had missed their check-in.
“We received an updated satellite position from the boaters’ friend, which led to them being successfully located,” Lt. Cmdr. Christopher Hooper, a search and rescue mission coordinator, said in a statement.
The boaters were rescued by a crew on an Air Station Clearwater MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter at about 11 a.m. on Sunday, the Coast Guard said. They had been adrift in seas that were between 15 and 20 feet, with wind speeds at about 50 knots. Visibility was low.
The names of the people on the boat were not released.
Debby strengthens into a hurricane
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Storm Debby to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph.
The forecast is still on track for more strengthening overnight as Debby feeds off the warm water in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above average are providing plenty of fuel for this storm to intensify before landfall, which will happen around 7 a.m. ET along the Big Bend region of Florida.
Tropical Storm Debby nearing hurricane strength at 70 mph
While still a tropical storm, Debby is nearing hurricane strength, producing maximum sustained wind speeds up to 70 mph.
Debby will continue to intensify rapidly overnight as it travels northward over the Gulf’s warm waters. It is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. It is expected to strengthen to at least a strong Category 1 hurricane before making landfall along Florida’s Big Bend region Monday morning (around 7 a.m. ET), producing sustained wind speeds near 85 mph and wind gusts reaching over 100 mph possible.
Located about 90 miles southwest of Cedar Key, Florida, the storm continues to impact the Florida Gulf Coast with heavy rainfall, storm surge, powerful winds and even spin-up tornadoes.
A reported wind gust of 56 mph was reported in St. Petersburg, with two tornadoes reported in central Florida.
A 60-mph wind gust was also reported near Sarasota, Florida.
Numerous reports of flooding from heavy rainfall and surges have also been submitted up Florida’s Gulf Coast.
The Tornado Watch covering much of northern and central Florida and southern Georgia has been extended until 6 a.m. ET on Monday.
Once Debby moves over land, it will weaken. However, the lack of a steering current will cause the storm to slow down considerably. While its exact track remains questionable, model guidance suggests the storm will drift over the Atlantic or Southeast coastline late Monday night into Tuesday before meandering back over Georgia and the Carolinas. Interaction with the Atlantic could reenergize Debby, but that will greatly depend on the storm’s path.
Even though Debby’s track and timing remain uncertain later this week, there is high confidence that it will bring historic rainfall and significant flooding across portions of the Southeast.
Rainfall ranging between 6 to 12 inches is possible from Florida’s Big Bend region through southeastern Georgia and into the Carolinas. Parts of coastal Georgia and South Carolina will be in the bullseye for the heaviest rainfall. There, widespread totals between 10 to 20 inches are possible, with some places even seeing up to 30 inches locally. Because of this, significant urban and river flooding is anticipated.
Rainfall aside, hurricane and tropical storm force winds will continue to whip across Florida and will likely intensify Sunday night into Monday as the storm moves closer to the coast — with areas just south and east of the storm’s eyewall seeing the strongest gusts early Monday morning.
Storm surge will also worsen along Florida’s northern and central Gulf coast tonight into Monday morning, with the highest surge expected between Suwannee River and Ochlockonee River (6 to 10 feet).
All tropical alerts remain unchanged from the last update.
Tropical Storm Debby on track to become a hurricane overnight
As of 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, Tropical Storm Debby still has winds of 65 mph and is forecast to undergo rapid intensification into a hurricane overnight, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Debby is expected to make landfall as a hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend region on Monday morning around 7 a.m.
Rain is expected to be the most impactful element from this storm, affecting a wide area over an extended period of time.
“Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning,” the National Hurricane Center said. “This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.”
Evacuations ordered in Alachua County, Florida, as Debby set to make landfall
An evacuation order was issued Sunday for residents of Alachua County, Florida, residing in mobile homes, manufactured homes and recreational vehicles ahead of the arrival of Debby, which is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall on Monday.
People living in areas close to rivers and lakes, and low-lying areas that tend to flood in Alachua County are also encouraged to evacuate, according to a statement issued by county officials.
Gainesville is the largest city in Alachua County.
“We encourage residents affected to find alternative housing with friends, family or short-term rentals,” according to the county’s statement.
Alachua County is opening three shelters for residents in need.
Tornado watch issued as Debby runs parallel to Florida’s Gulf Coast
A tornado watch was issued Sunday afternoon by the National Weather Service as Tropical Storm Debbie moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico parallel to Florida’s Gulf Coast.
At 2 p.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said Debby was still a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph and forecasted to bring severe weather, including heavy rain, to coastal communities Sunday afternoon.
A tornado watch is in effect for much of Florida through Sunday evening.
Debby is expected to become a hurricane Sunday evening and will likely make landfall sometime between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. Monday in the Big Bend area of Florida’s Panhandle.
Once Debby makes landfall, the storm is expected to slow down and essentially stall over the Southeast, dropping potentially historic amounts of rainfall as it moves into Georgia and South Carolina.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the west coast of Florida from the Ochlockonee River southwest of Tallahassee to the Suwannee River northwest of Gainesville.
More than 1,600 flights canceled due to Debby and Northeast thunderstorms
Tropical Storm Debby and thunderstorms in the Northeast were causing airlines to cancel or delay flights on Sunday.
American Airlines said it canceled 601 flights, or about 16% of its flights, on Sunday, the most of any airline.
Debby, now a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to make landfall around the Big Bend area of the Florida Panhandle on Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane.
Also causing delays and cancellations were severe thunderstorms moving up the East Coast. Parts of the mid-Atlantic states are under a severe thunderstorm watch until 9 p.m. ET Sunday, including the cities of Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City.
The most flights canceled on Sunday were at Charlotte Douglas International Airport, where 214 flights were canceled and another 172 were delayed, according to FlightAware.
In New York City, LaGuardia and John F. Kennedy international airports reported a combined 363 flights canceled and 258 delayed on Sunday.
Miami International Airport reported 209 canceled flights and 151 delayed fights. Airports in Orlando, Tampa, Philadelphia, Newark, Washington, D.C., and Dallas-Fort Worth all reported more than 100 flight cancellations on Sunday.
Ten million people under tropical storm alert on Florida’s Gulf Coast
About 10 million people along Florida’s west coast and up through Georgia and South and North Carolina were under a tropical storm alert Sunday as Debby took aim at the area and is forecast to make landfall in the Panhandle region on Monday.
Debby, now a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico about 190 miles southwest of Tampa, is expected to make landfall sometime between 7 and 8 a.m. in Big Bend on the Florida Panhandle as a Category 1 hurricane, state emergency officials said.
Debby is expected to create a storm surge of 4 to 7 feet in Cedar Key and Crystal River on the Florida west coast and a 2- to 5-foot storm surge farther south in Tampa and Sarasota.
The storm is forecast to move into the cities of Tallahassee and Jacksonville, bringing up to 20 inches of rain to some parts, before causing potential flooding in Georgia and the Carolinas on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
National Guard put on alert for search and rescue: DeSantis
Members of the Florida National Guard have been advised to be prepared to conduct search-and-rescue missions once Tropical Storm Debby makes landfall on Monday, according to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Widespread flooding is expected for the Florida Panhandle region, particularly in the Big Bend area where Debby is expected to make landfall Monday morning as a category 1 hurricane, DeSantis said during a news conference Sunday morning.
DeSantis said the Florida National Guard and the state’s Emergency Response Team are prepared to conduct search-and-rescue and provide humanitarian assistance.
“The Florida National Guard is standing by with 3,000 service members ready to assist the state Emergency Response Team, which includes search-and-rescue, route clearance, commodity distribution and protection of critical infrastructure,” DeSantis said.
The governor said at least 12 swift boat crews and flat-bottom jon boat crews are also standing by to help with rescues.
He said that more than 30,000 bottles of water, more than 160,000 meals and nearly 14,000 tarps have been pre-staged in parts of Florida that are expected to be hit hard by the storm.
DeSantis said Florida utility companies have notified up to 17,000 linemen to be ready to spring into action once it is safe to repair any damage.
Flooding forecast as Debby expected to bring up to 20 inches of rain
Florida residents in the Big Bend region of the Panhandle were warned Sunday that Debby is going to bring “catastrophic rain to the area” that will cause flooding and power outages.
Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said during a news conference on Sunday that once the Debby makes landfall as a possible Category 1 hurricane on Monday morning, winds will subside quickly, but the slow-moving storm will produce an abundance of rain.
“We’re going to be in a catastrophic rain situation where we have situations in Florida that will receive 15, maybe as high as 20 inches of rain,” Guthrie said.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told residents who are in the path of the storm to expect widespread power outages.
“It’s possible that you could have serious intensification between now and landfall. It could get up to 85, 90 and 95 mph sustained winds. That is absolutely possible, particularly in parts of the state like here in Tallahassee. There’s going to be a lot of trees that are going to fall down and you’re going to have debris. You are going to have power interruptions,” the governor said.
Gov. DeSantis advises residents to make final preparations for Debby
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis advised residents of the state’s Panhandle region on Sunday that they should be finalizing preparations for when Tropical Storm Debby makes its anticipated landfall Monday morning as a Category 1 hurricane.
“Now this is a storm that is potentially dangerous. Residents should be finalizing all of their preparations now,” DeSantis said during a news conference at the state’s Emergency Operation Center in Tallahassee.
DeSantis said Tropical Storm Debby was in the Gulf of Mexico about 190 miles southwest of Tampa as of Sunday morning with sustained winds of about 50 mph.
“But those are expected to increase,” DeSantis said. “Tropical Storm Debby is likely to become a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida.”
He said the storm was on a similar track taken by Hurricane Idalia in 2023. Idalia made landfall in Big Bend on Aug. 30, 2023, as a Category 3 hurricane and caused a devastating storm surge of 7 to 12 feet across the coastal Big Bend region in Levy, Dixie and Taylor counties.
“This storm is a similar track,” DeSantis said. “It may be a tick to the west of that. It very well may have greater impacts here in the Tallahassee region than Hurricane Idalia did. Once it crosses landfall and enters the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend Region, wherever it does, it’s going to move very slowly across northern Florida and southeast Georgia.”
(LONDON) — A third teenager has been arrested in connection with the foiled attack on now-canceled Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna, according to an announcement by Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner on Friday.
Karner, who made the announcement at an unrelated press conference, said the 18-year-old Iraqi citizen was taken into custody in Austria’s capital on Thursday evening after allegedly being in contact with the main suspect — a 19-year-old Austrian citizen who was arrested early Wednesday. A 17-year-old suspected accomplice — another Austrian citizen — was also arrested later Wednesday.
Karner noted that “intensive investigations” continue.
A 15-year-old Turkish citizen was earlier detained and interrogated by authorities but is not considered a suspect.
Taylor Swift’s three concerts in Vienna were canceled after the first two suspects were arrested for allegedly plotting a terror attack, authorities said.
“We have no choice but to cancel the three scheduled shows for everyone’s safety,” a message from Barracuda Music said. “All tickets will be automatically refunded.”
The suspects allegedly radicalized themselves online, Franz Ruf, director-general for public safety in the Ministry of the Interior, said at a press conference. The 19-year-old suspect allegedly pledged allegiance to the leader of the Islamic State at the beginning of July, Ruf said.
Investigators are not convinced that the alleged plot would have worked and they do not know if a functioning bomb was produced. However, Viennese investigators did find explosive precursor chemicals which showed a degree of motivation and planning, sources told ABC News.
Investigators in Austria are looking at surveillance footage to determine whether one or more of the suspects had previously visited the concert site for reconnaissance or if they had visited other potential targets.
As ABC News has previously reported, law enforcement officials have been concerned about mass gathering attacks since the deadly Moscow concert hall assault earlier this year for which ISIS-K claimed credit.
(LONDON) — A Russian chess player has been suspended from participating in all competitions after being accused of trying to poison her opponent’s pieces, officials have announced.
Amina Abakarova is now under investigation by the Russian Chess Federation regarding her alleged plot against a rival during the Dagestan Republic Championship in Makhachkala; the capital of Russia’s Dagestan republic.
Andrey Filatov, the president of the Russian Chess Federation, said the organization is temporarily suspending Abakarova — who is from Dagestan — from all of its competitions until law enforcement agencies conclude their probe. Punishment could include a lifetime disqualification, Filatov said. Abakarova may even face criminal charges.
Dagestan Sports Minister Sazhid Sazhidov said in a statement that Abakarova had “treated the table at which she was sitting with an unknown substance, which later turned out to be mercury compounds.” Her opponent was fellow Dagestani Umaiganat Osmanov, Sazhidov said.
Sazhidov added that he was “perplexed by what happened, and the motives that guided such an experienced athlete as Amina Abakarova are also incomprehensible to me.”
“The actions she committed could have led to the saddest outcome; they threatened the lives of everyone who was in the chess house, including herself. Now she will have to answer for what she did before the law,” he said.
(NEW YORK) — An American teenager has lost a leg in a shark attack while vacationing in Central America, according to officials.
Fifteen-year-old Sofia Carlson was on a diving excursion with the Belize Dive Pro company near Halfmoon Caye in the Gulf of Honduras when the attack occurred, ABC News has learned.
The Belize Coast Guard told ABC News the incident happened on Tuesday morning during an expedition to the Lighthouse Reef, some 50 miles southeast of Belize City.
“It was her right leg that received a bite from the shark,” Adm. Elton Bennett of the Belize Coast Guard said. “So, she lost her right leg.”
Tour operators pulled Carlson from the water and took her to a Coast Guard base, where officers helped stabilize her, according to Adm. Bennett. He said Carlson was then airlifted to a local hospital.
“She’s stable and she’s recovering at this time,” Adm. Bennett told ABC News on Thursday.
Local officials said shark attacks in Belize’s waters are unusual.
“I want to highlight that this is something that is very rare,” Belize’s Minister of the Blue Economy Andre Perez told reporters on Wednesday.
People gather in support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ attack on Israel on April 14, 2024 in Tehran, Iran. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
(TEL AVIV, Israel) — The Israeli military is working in close coordination with the Pentagon to prepare for a “series of scenarios” in which either Iran or one of its proxies, namely Hezbollah, could launch an attack or series of attacks against Israel, an Israeli defense official told ABC News.
Both Iran and its Lebanese proxy group, Hezbollah, have vowed to take revenge against Israel for two assassinations carried out in Beirut and Tehran last week, which killed Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, respectively. Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death.
The Israeli official, who spoke with ABC News on condition of anonymity, suggested one red line for Israel, which could ratchet up tensions, would be an attack that harms or targets Israeli civilians.
“We don’t have an interest in a war or escalation,” the Israeli defense official said. “But we won’t tolerate attacks on our citizens.”
The defensive preparations being made by Israel in conjunction with the United States were “very critical,” the official said.
“What we are seeing is the U.S. taking a very clear position in their actions and their messaging, and it matters,” the Israeli defense official told ABC News.
In the wake of the assassinations, the Pentagon has announced it is moving two additional naval destroyers and a squadron of F-22 Raptor fighter jets into the Eastern Mediterranean as part of efforts to bolster defenses in and around Israel.
In an unusual step, U.S. officials also said a squadron of F-18 fighter jets from the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt were being redeployed to an undisclosed airbase in the Middle East.
The Israeli defense official said these redeployments of American military assets, which were aimed at defending Israel, appeared to be “unprecedented” in scale and scope.
‘Steeper hurdle’ with regional allies
The Biden administration has also been talking to regional allies about efforts to defend Israel from a potential Iranian attack.
However, U.S. diplomats told ABC News earlier this week they were “facing a steeper hurdle” convincing partners in the region to rejoin the defensive coalition, which rallied to protect Israel from attacks by more than 300 Iranian drones and missiles back in April.
Many international partners see “some of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s actions – particularly the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran – as unnecessarily provocative,” two U.S. officials familiar with the matter told ABC News earlier this week.
Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death, neither has it denied that it carried out the assassination in the Iranian capital. Israel did claim responsibility for the strike on Beirut that killed Fuad Shukr.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said in a statement released on Saturday that Israel would face “severe punishment” for the assassination, which they said would come at an appropriate time and place.
‘A fine balance’
Two former Israeli generals told ABC News they believed that if Iran attacks, that attack would likely be of a different type than the missile and drone barrage in April, which proved largely ineffective. Iran gave Israel and its allies hours of warning that the April attack was imminent. Analysts agree that there is not likely to be the same degree of warning ahead of any future attack.
“This time they must do something different … something that will cause a much more painful price,” former Israeli Gen. Yossi Kupperwasser, who was in charge of the Research Division at the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) Intelligence Corps, told ABC News.
Kupperwasser said the delayed response from Iran was partly because the Iranians wanted “to be sure that they are going to be successful.” However, he noted, Iran also had to consider Israel’s potential response to any attack.
“[The Iranian government] knows they are vulnerable. If Israel decides to retaliate then it can cause very painful damage. The Iranians have to take this into account,” the former general told ABC News.
According to Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer and senior research fellow at Israel’s Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy, the Iranian leadership faces a very delicate balancing act. Though Tehran has vowed it will act and will want to be seen to do something to deter Israel from future hostile acts, Iran cannot afford to hit Israel too hard and provoke a more potent response, he said.
“They know they need to get this right,” Javedanfar told ABC news. “It is a fine balance.”
Retired Israeli Major Gen. Amos Yadlin, who is now president and founder of the nonprofit national security consultancy MIND Israel, echoed that sentiment, telling ABC News that in a sense, Israel, Iran, and Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, all face the same dilemma: calibrating their attacks so that they are effective, while trying to ensure they are not too effective, in a way that could lead to a broader conflict.
“They all want to achieve the goal of retaliation and deterrence [with their attacks]. However, none of them want to reach a full-scale war,” Yadlin said.
Hezbollah under ‘more pressure’ than Iran to act
On Tuesday, the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said his group would respond to the Israeli airstrike in Beirut on July 30, which killed Fuad Shukr.
The same Israeli defense official who told ABC News of the joint U.S.-Israeli preparations for a potential Iranian or Hezbollah attack further said that Israel’s July 30 attack in southern Beirut was “a direct response” to a rocket attack on July 27 in Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, which killed 12 children and teenagers — an attack for which Israel blames Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah crossed a red line,” the defense official said.
Yadlin, who for five years was in charge of Israeli military intelligence, said Hezbollah “is under more pressure than Iran to act.”
Hezbollah “lost the top military leader and they are trying to bring a clear red line that an attack on Beirut is unacceptable,” he added.
Yadlin predicted Iran might wait longer to respond to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in an explosion the early hours of July 31 in Tehran. Three Middle Eastern sources have previously told ABC News that Haniyeh was killed by a bomb, planted in his room in the Revolutionary Guard guesthouse, where he was staying for the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
Yadlin told ABC News that the fact that it was a Palestinian leader killed in Tehran, and that he was not killed by a missile fired from outside of the country, gave Tehran some wriggle-room in its response.
